Military Review

Bear's roar on Wall Street

41
Financial analysts are predicting the largest stock market crash around the world. "Bearish Roar" is already racing from Wall Street, it is heard in London and Paris. Last Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by the next 300 points. The US stock market is sinking, oil is falling in price, showing the worst performance for the whole historyThe situation in the Chinese economy is also not the best. Experts talk about the impending financial crisis that will be caused by the Samo-Yed economy, which exists for the sake of the absurd desire for "growth."


Bear's roar on Wall Street


About the coming collapse of the world economy told Chris Matthews in a popular magazine "Fortune".

The most “bearish” of all the “bears” is Albert Edwards, a strategist from Societe Generale. He could say little about the world economy, more precisely, about its prospects in the coming years. Recent events have only strengthened his conviction that the world is on the verge of disaster.

Edwards predicts that the US stock market will fall by as much as 75%. For comparison: during the last financial crisis, the biggest failure was 62%.

According to Edwards, since the last financial crisis, the world economy has become hostage to the program of mass buying up of Fed bonds, launched to support stock prices and stimulate growth in emerging markets. As a result, another financial bubble was inflated, which in addition was accompanied by a “shale investment boom” in the United States.

The policy of quantitative easing of the Fed, pursued to reduce long-term interest rates, also influenced. Now that the Fed has stopped buying bonds and actually raised interest rates, the artificial increase in asset prices, which has occurred since the last financial crisis, has stopped. “The illusion of prosperity was destroyed, and the boom is now turning into a collapse,” the expert believes.

Hits the world economy and the situation in China, I'm sure Edwards. He argues that the Chinese top politicians have fallen into an extremely difficult situation: in fact, the yuan is overvalued, and in this situation, an attempt to devalue the yuan looks “too bold.” Money from the wealthy Chinese will not flow into the Chinese economy, but out of it, and in the future this will lead to a destabilization of the situation.

The Chinese manufacturing sector has no choice but to lower prices for products in order to maintain its share in world trade. But this will lead to deflation in the PRC. And then there will be a blow to the economies of Western countries. “The western manufacturing sector will be stifled by this import deflation loop,” Edwards said.

The end result of all this will be an even greater decline. In the US, with already low interest rates, the Fed will not be able to take any measures to stimulate demand. What Edwards calls the "bear market" will come to the world. The result of the "bears": the S & P index will collapse by 75%.

However, Chris Matthews notes, Mr. Edwards has already made similar negative predictions. He has been doing this for many years. In the 2010 year, for example, he thought that the S & P would also fall. It did not come true.

Of course, this does not mean that Edwards is generally wrong, the author writes. Just as Edwards says is true when he claims that global stock markets "hopelessly" depend on a policy of stimulating central banks. If this incentive stops, prices may well fall to the bottom.

Another thing is that the analyst who cannot inform investors is worthless when prices will collapse. Investors hear complaints about state policy, but do not receive the necessary advice.

There is another view on the global economy.

Analyst Karl Weinberg in a recent commentary referred to the recent decline in oil prices by almost 40% (compared to a year ago). He called this reduction “unthinkable,” and then reminded readers that global economic downturns tend to occur when the economy generates “excess capacity.”

At the same time, the “optimist” Weinberg points out the alarming situation in China, affecting the global oil market and commodity markets.

In short, "clear weather" investors should not wait.

China is indeed playing the leading fiddle in the impending crisis of the global economy.

According to the newspaper Kommersant with reference to Xinhua, China’s GDP growth rate in 2015 was 6,9%. The rate has become the lowest in the last 25 years. According to preliminary data from the State Statistics Office of the People's Republic of China, China’s GDP in 2015 amounted to 67,670 trillion. yuan, which is 6,9% more than in 2014 year.

"Kommersant" recalls that the numerous "bubbles" and the crisis of overproduction in the PRC have finally become apparent. "On the stock markets from the very beginning of the year there is a real slaughter," - the newspaper writes.

Портал “To lead. Economy" With reference to the British magazine “The Economist” points out: the danger of a new crisis is that in case of a deterioration of the situation, the Chinese authorities may prefer the path of currency devaluation. The yuan is depreciating now, and investors are reacting painfully to this.

The real shock will happen with a sharp collapse of the yuan. If the Celestial Empire goes for such a devaluation, then Asian countries will have to do the same: they cannot afford to lose competitiveness. But after all, Asian companies have dollar loans (by the way, like Russian ones).

And this dangerous scenario looks like a 1998 crisis.

Professor of the Department of International Finance at MGIMO, Doctor of Economic Sciences Valentin Katasonov believes that the problems of the world economy that were accumulated earlier will spill out in 2016.

"The epicenter of the second wave of the global crisis of 2008-2009 can be either the United States, which was already the epicenter of the first wave, either Europe or China," he said "The Parliamentary Newspaper". - In the first days of the year, the indices of the US and Chinese stock markets collapsed almost simultaneously, and now they are arguing where the beginning was and where the continuation was. The dispute is useless, as these are segments of a single global financial market. And the bottom line is that the height of the 2016 debt pyramid of the year already exceeds its height 2007 in the pre-crisis year. China’s cumulative debt is 280% of GDP, and it has already outpaced US debt by 2007 a year. ”

The second wave will come to Europe and the United States, but it will hit the periphery of world capitalism especially, including Russia. “I would not like to say that the situation is hopelessly bad for us,” says Katasonov. “But our financial authorities have not put up the necessary protective barriers to cross-border capital flows and do not even stutter on this. This commitment to the ideas of boundless economic liberalism is the saddest thing. As long as the outflow of capital continues, the ruble will fall with all the ensuing consequences. It is time for our Central Bank to set these restrictions and start issuing rubles for national production, for the release of national goods. It’s time to stop doing astrology on the subject of oil prices, and doing economics is an absolutely concrete thing. ”

At the same time, “economic growth,” as he now understands, Katasonov regards as “a pyramid that benefits world usurers.”

“For the sake of this economic growth, supported by a debt credit and emission pyramid, natural resources are milled, people are milled, the environment is polluted,” the expert notes. - This is an economy of absurdity, this is a meaningless, faulty in its basis economy. Real economic growth is the satisfaction of people's real needs, and not the creation and satisfaction of a demand for something that is not really necessary and even harmful. ”

So, to add in conclusion, the elementary capitalist overproduction and glut, along with the desire of market players, primarily China, to preserve market share at any price, will lead to a new crisis. GDP growth with this approach becomes an absurd concept, which the state prays for. Infinite growth is impossible just as a perpetual motion machine is impossible. And the state is here hostage to its own policy: when the demand for goods falls, production will fall, unemployment will start to rise, the standard of living of the population will fall. And in this situation, the Chinese government will have a particularly hard time: in its export-oriented country, domestic demand is also extremely low due to the total poverty of the population.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
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  1. SSR
    SSR 20 January 2016 05: 56 New
    +5
    Cargo transportation in the Atlantic has fallen to its lowest level in recent 30 years, that is, Europe-America at zero.
    1. Megatron
      Megatron 20 January 2016 06: 04 New
      10
      The West is decaying and decaying.
      When does it rot anyway ???
      1. Vend
        Vend 20 January 2016 09: 26 New
        +3
        Quote: Megatron
        The West is decaying and decaying.
        When does it rot anyway ???

        It is impossible to bring down the West, without harm to Russia. To do this, you need to prepare well. Only one thing will save Russia and China from the impending crisis: equating the ruble with gold. It will shake, of course, but it will not fall down. But the west will collapse terribly.
        1. Forest
          Forest 20 January 2016 11: 22 New
          +1
          Linking to gold will not give anything, it will only stop the growth of the money supply in the event of economic growth. It needs to be tied to industry, which can be regulated, and not to tsatska, which can also fall in price, like oil.
      2. hrapon
        hrapon 20 January 2016 10: 36 New
        +2
        Quote: Megatron
        The West is decaying and decaying.
        When does it rot anyway ???


        ME ALWAYS AMAZED THE "WISDOM" OF THIS POSITION.

        SURELY AND WHEN EVERYTHING FINALLY GOES EXTREMELY, WILL MUMM THE SAME.
    2. Constructor1
      Constructor1 20 January 2016 06: 30 New
      +7
      It’s time to stop doing astrology on the topic of oil prices, and to engage in economics - an absolutely specific thing. ”

      About 10 years ago it was already necessary to begin to engage in economics, production and self-sufficiency.
      1. Kite
        Kite 20 January 2016 10: 15 New
        +7
        Quote: Designer 1
        About 10 years ago it was already necessary to begin to engage in economics

        - yeah, so neighbors would give you a saw, an ax, a box of nails .... so that you can start building a hut and a fence around you in that clearing that they have long wanted to divide among themselves.
        Only in 2014, our chief foreman received approval from his guaranteed majority, and until this year everything was swinging on the scales from a small blow. Do you remember? And the army "weighed" little as an argument.
      2. What a
        What a 20 January 2016 10: 20 New
        0
        10 years ago, the iPhone became the Prime Minister, and the Russian economy began to fall from this point, it was simply leveled earlier by high oil prices.
  2. atalef
    atalef 20 January 2016 05: 57 New
    +2
    Quote: SSR
    Cargo transportation in the Atlantic has fallen to its lowest level in recent 30 years, that is, Europe-America at zero.

    Where does this data come from?
    1. Schulz
      Schulz 20 January 2016 08: 08 New
      -2
      Quote: atalef
      Quote: SSR
      Cargo transportation in the Atlantic has fallen to its lowest level in recent 30 years, that is, Europe-America at zero.

      Where does this data come from?
    2. SSR
      SSR 20 January 2016 09: 13 New
      +4
      Quote: atalef
      Quote: SSR
      Cargo transportation in the Atlantic has fallen to its lowest level in recent 30 years, that is, Europe-America at zero.

      Where does this data come from?

      This is open data.
      http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

      I’ll try to find a reference where these vessels are joking. I think the sailors on the site would have done it faster, this is also open sources.
      1. Schulz
        Schulz 20 January 2016 10: 00 New
        0
        Quote: SSR

        This is open data.
        http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

        I’ll try to find a reference where these vessels are joking. I think the sailors on the site would have done it faster, this is also open sources.

        You are now trying to replace concepts. The Baltic Dry Index, of course, is associated with the demand for shipping and the volume of shipping, but not directly. For example, roughly: The total volume in the world of shipping is 1 million tons. which carry 100 ships. Another 50 vessels were built tomorrow, and the volume of traffic remained unchanged. Those. the index fell by 50%. And what does this prove that traffic has decreased by 50%?
        T.ch. You can’t not look for a link to vessels at a joke, but rather find a link indicating that it was the VOLUME of traffic that fell.
      2. Scoun
        Scoun 20 January 2016 10: 21 New
        +3
        Quote: SSR
        I’ll try to find a reference where these vessels are joking.

        which day already))
        Quote: Schulz
        You are now trying to replace concepts. The Baltic Dry Index is, of course, related to the demand for shipping and the volume of shipping, but not directly

        Oh damn, you would have inserted another picture of the demotivators.
        www.marinetraffic.com
        Transatlantic trucking stopped

        Baku, Fineko / abc.az. Foreign media cite an unfortunate fact: transatlantic shipping has stopped. Almost completely. Almost now.

        According to foreign media reports, the current location of all ships in the Atlantic shows that they are currently grouped around the coastlines of various continents. The central part of the Atlantic Ocean is free of ships.

        The data of the Russian Navy, that for the first time in history, a cargo ship is completely absent in the entire Atlantic Ocean.

        Panamax class vessels, as well as all types of vessels carrying liquid cargo, including supertankers such as VLCC and ULCC, are practically invisible.

        http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-66/centery:35/zoom:2
        more

        superstation95.com
        yournewswire.com
        1. Schulz
          Schulz 20 January 2016 11: 38 New
          -1
          Quote: Scoun

          http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-66/centery:35/zoom:2
          more

          superstation95.com
          yournewswire.com

          You wrote a lot of text instead of one small link proving that today's sea freight volumes (in million tons) have fallen to "the minimum values ​​for the last 30 years."
          Foreign media cite an unfortunate fact

          According to foreign media reports,

          After phrases like: "According to an unnamed, but sooo well-informed source," I usually stop reading.
          At the same time, data are given by the Russian Navy that there are absolutely no cargoes in the entire Atlantic OceanОe vessel for the first time in history.

          It’s immediately obvious that you draw information from authoritative sources, where there are a lot of editors, proofreaders, and simply competent employees.

          Quote: Scoun

          Oh damn, you would have inserted another picture of the demotivators.

          Caught in the subject, be sure to insert despite your displeasure.
        2. The comment was deleted.
    3. tacet
      tacet 20 January 2016 14: 12 New
      +4
      This can be traced by a system that tracks the position of a ship in the ocean (there are many sites). A couple of weeks ago, all the major tankers and container ships in the Atlantic were in the coastal zone or in ports. Movement was observed only in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.
  3. Jarilo
    Jarilo 20 January 2016 06: 17 New
    +4
    As I understand it, there is simply no money in the economy, i.e. they are, but the capitalists have earned them, and there are not many of them, and their demand is limited. An imbalance has formed. Accordingly, they must be discounted and re-printed, restarted, so to speak, the economy. Therefore, countries accumulate gold. But why we buy US government bonds is a mystery to me.
    1. atalef
      atalef 20 January 2016 06: 48 New
      0
      Quote: Jarilo
      As I understand it, there is simply no money in the economy,

      There is money
      Quote: Jarilo
      but they were earned by the capitalists, and there are not many of them, and their demand is limited

      Do you think that demand is determined by the amount of black caviar eaten by the capitalists for breakfast?
      Quote: Jarilo
      Accordingly, they must be discounted and reprinted.

      money, like energy, does not disappear. if one loses - as a rule the second earns. (unless of course there is hyperinflation)
      Quote: Jarilo
      Therefore, countries accumulate gold.

      Do not accumulate.
      Quote: Jarilo
      . But why we buy US government bonds is a mystery to me.

      Because this is one of not many means (today) to save money and make a little money.
      1. Jarilo
        Jarilo 20 January 2016 06: 57 New
        +3
        There is money, but not for those who form mass demand. You can earn money if you work, money should work, in my opinion is it obvious or not?
        1. Nikolay K
          Nikolay K 20 January 2016 08: 50 New
          0
          Mass demand forms the consumption of goods. The expression "money should work" means that money should be invested, i.e. to spend money not on black caviar and cars, but on means of production. In my opinion, this is obvious. So you already decide where, in your opinion there is not enough money. If, as you say, capitalists have money, and mass demand is limited, then you offer less money to invest in economic development and more money to eat. Did I understand you correctly? Then tell us how this will help the economy.
          1. Jarilo
            Jarilo 20 January 2016 10: 22 New
            0
            Do you know your body? Eating this is an extensive development, and the deposition in the form of fat is useful in small quantities, otherwise it leads to illness.
          2. Jarilo
            Jarilo 20 January 2016 10: 46 New
            0
            Eating, or the extensive path of development, is a basic need. Extensive development creates opportunities for intensive. Those. first you need to grow something, and then it is something to develop. You can do this at the same time.
      2. bmv04636
        bmv04636 20 January 2016 11: 45 New
        +3
        And as for the gold, ordinary states of the "light elves" will not agree with you
        While Chinese citizens line up in front of banks and exchange offices, trying to convert the yuan into dollars, the Americans are busy exchanging dollars, which are so much in demand in the Middle Kingdom, for gold and silver.
        Why is it really ordinary citizens do not believe in a green piece of paper
  4. Zomanus
    Zomanus 20 January 2016 06: 26 New
    +2
    In short, it will not be better ...
    Especially for those who carry goods from abroad.
    Or those who work on foreign equipment
    and / or with foreign materials / components.
    And this including spare parts for foreign cars,
    kit for PC, packaging and more.
    1. Jarilo
      Jarilo 20 January 2016 06: 32 New
      +2
      Judging by what is written in the article, there will be overstocking of markets and prices will fall, as well as oil. Manufacturers will try to maintain market share. Kudrin airbags will go under the knife.
      1. atalef
        atalef 20 January 2016 06: 51 New
        0
        Quote: Jarilo
        Judging by what is written in the article, there will be overstocking of markets and prices will fall, as well as oil. Manufacturers will try to maintain market share. Kudrin airbags will go under the knife.

        No, with goods - it’s not like with raw materials.
        Oil production - the cost of 5-15 bucks per barrel, they are a plus and at 20 bks per barrel.
        The producer of the final product (whose share of profit is orders of magnitude smaller than that of the oil industry workers) - will not allow itself to work at a loss - therefore it will go out of business.
        1. Nikolay K
          Nikolay K 20 January 2016 08: 53 New
          -3
          We will be the first to go bankrupt, because we have loan rates at 20% per annum, and the states and Europe will calmly survive the crisis, lending at 4%.
    2. atalef
      atalef 20 January 2016 06: 49 New
      -1
      Quote: Zomanus
      In short, it will not be better ...
      Especially for those who carry goods from abroad.
      Or those who work on foreign equipment
      and / or with foreign materials / components.
      And this including spare parts for foreign cars,
      PC kit, packaging and more

      Well, of course, if import substitution does not happen.
      1. Jarilo
        Jarilo 20 January 2016 07: 01 New
        +2
        So, commodity prices are falling, production costs are falling, currencies are depreciating
      2. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 20 January 2016 08: 03 New
        +3
        Quote: atalef
        Well, of course, if import substitution does not happen.

        Hi Sanya! I remember Putin saying that for a long time the world economy will not be able to withstand low oil prices. It can be said that prices have nothing to do with it. But Putin turned out to be right, everything goes to hell laughing
  5. PatriotKZ
    PatriotKZ 20 January 2016 06: 39 New
    0
    It is terrible to read such articles.
  6. Same lech
    Same lech 20 January 2016 06: 42 New
    +4
    Chris Matthews spoke about the impending collapse of the global economy in the popular Fortune magazine

    They have been talking about this collapse for many years ... but something is not visible so that this collapse at least approaches the real date.
    As it is on the horizon, it stayed there.
    And when it really comes no one can say for sure (but I think when the main big-time capital movers on our planet will give the go-ahead) ..a any predictions ... smile on this occasion, ordinary noodles on the ears of gullible townsfolk ... do not believe everything that is written in various articles.
    1. Jarilo
      Jarilo 20 January 2016 06: 51 New
      +2
      Apparently the field of the new year has not overslept yet? belay
  7. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 20 January 2016 06: 55 New
    +2
    Said famously there will be no good. This is what happens when politicians control both politics and economics, leaving economists out of work.
  8. Nitarius
    Nitarius 20 January 2016 07: 35 New
    +4
    that there was a development .. real development is necessary and not a constant redistribution of the MARKETS!
    1) It is necessary to build roads .. HIGH-SPEED RAILWAYS,
    2) Do cars - FLYING cars .. as if it were not funny!
    But this is a step forward and not trampling on the spot. This development is real.
    3) The education and model of the USSR is nevertheless much more adequate with the planned economies that you just throw the market, but you have to throw it .. BUT QUALITY, but not FAVORABLE and consumer goods!
  9. sergeyzzz
    sergeyzzz 20 January 2016 07: 48 New
    +3
    Quote: Designer 1
    About 10 years ago it was already necessary to begin to engage in economics, production and self-sufficiency.

    Well, you're a straight genius. So, 10 years ago, sanctions would have started, but unlike the current situation, there would have been no fat in the form of reserves of money from excess profits from the sale of oil. And the army in its current, 20% modernized form would not be. Russia would be bare back to NATO.
  10. sa-ag
    sa-ag 20 January 2016 08: 39 New
    0
    information for reflection on the topic of import substitution, legislation and other things :-) http://www.yaplakal.com/forum7/topic1293605.html
    1. Tektor
      Tektor 20 January 2016 14: 50 New
      0
      He does not tell the whole truth about the "printer", namely, that you can’t print money endlessly ... Money will begin to lose its value, so today money is more expensive than it will be tomorrow. So the printer has a limit, and this limit has already been exceeded, because the system has gone awry because of the impossibility of further reducing the refinancing rate. They raised it to lower it very soon ...
  11. Belousov
    Belousov 20 January 2016 08: 46 New
    0
    The global economic crisis will not be allowed, because it can seriously hit China, and then the states (I want to clarify - I'm not a jingo-patriot constantly shouting that staff members will soon collapse, just a couple of days later) and further chain reaction. Given the economic weakness of Europe (and all other European problems), it may turn out to be a too global schukher, after which the American Great Depression will seem like pranks.
  12. Red_Hamer
    Red_Hamer 20 January 2016 09: 01 New
    0
    It was necessary to turn the idea of ​​academician Sakhorov into life in time, and now there would not be this problem called "Uncle Sem". However, it’s not too late. Only deeper her native, hydrogen, so that a wave 3 km high would wash everything up to the last poop.
  13. Nikolay71
    Nikolay71 20 January 2016 09: 25 New
    0
    To paraphrase a soldier’s saying: "a crisis is inevitable, like the collapse of imperialism."
  14. jekasimf
    jekasimf 20 January 2016 09: 54 New
    +1
    Hurry already.
  15. cergey51046
    cergey51046 20 January 2016 11: 25 New
    0
    And we have the same thing. I can’t buy myself what I would like, there is no money.
  16. ALAVIA
    ALAVIA 20 January 2016 12: 40 New
    +1
    Oleg Makarenko:
    As you can see, so far everything is moving according to the scenario, which I designated as the base on December 15:
    http://fritzmorgen.livejournal.com/842112.html
    1. The Fed raised the rate. There is.
    2. Panic and fermentation began on exchanges. There is.
    3. Exchanges sank below the August lows. Nearly.
    4. The Fed turned on the reverse and lowered the rate back. We wait.

    Hold on tight. The most interesting events are yet to come.
  17. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 20 January 2016 13: 21 New
    0
    January 8, 1835 is the only day in history when the United States did not have government debt.
  18. gergi
    gergi 20 January 2016 16: 23 New
    +1
    The liberal bastard in our government, out of a sense of self-preservation, should urgently resign and lay down the cordon. We outweigh all the creatures that do not have time. Run!
  19. Beaver
    Beaver 20 January 2016 21: 22 New
    0
    It’s time for our Central Bank to set these restrictions and start issuing rubles

    laughing
    So the article is the answer of the "sect of the holy printer" to the publication of 23.12.2015/XNUMX/XNUMX. “Mnogabukaf” for the sake of one phrase, not supported by anything other than warming up the emotions of the reader. hi