Military Review

The lifting of sanctions from Iran: oil consequences

44
On the night of January 17, US Secretary of State John Kerry and head of European diplomacy Federica Mogherini announced the lifting of sanctions against Iran. The removal of restrictive measures was preceded by a statement by the IAEA Director General, Yukio Amana, on Iran’s fulfillment of its obligations to limit the nuclear program. The main result of the lifting of sanctions: the US and the EU have allowed Iran to resume the supply of "black gold" in full, without restrictions.




Meanwhile, financial analysts do not expect a sharp drop in oil prices, associated precisely with the lifting of sanctions against Iran. Politicians also do not expect this. John Kerry remindedthat Iran needs to invest about 500 billion dollars in it to restore the oil industry.

And this is a very big amount for Iran.

According to the US Secretary of State, the fears of opponents of lifting the sanctions are largely exaggerated. Other journalists claim that Tehran will receive from 100 to 150 billion dollars after the "defrost", but the US foreign minister categorically disagrees. He noted that Iran’s frozen assets are limited to 55 billions. 150 billion dollars - the number of "fictional".

"They will receive about 55 billion dollars," - quotes Kerry MIGnews.com. Moreover, this money will not be issued immediately, but during a “certain” period of time. The duration of his Kerry did not name.

It is also curious that last Sunday the United States ... imposed new sanctions against the IRI related to its missile program. Therefore, the Iranians themselves do not believe in any rapid changes after the removal of restrictive measures.

"The lifting of sanctions is a great success of the government," said the TV channel. "Euronews" Iranian manager Saeed Yavari. - I can congratulate him. But I think there should be no quick changes. The effect will not appear immediately. ”

The main result of the lifting of sanctions was reduced world oil prices, the channel said. Tehran promised to sell 500 per thousand barrels per day.

However, let us add on our own, if you look at the market data, it will become clear: no sharp fall in prices has occurred. Moreover, Iran is not able to quickly enter the world market. This is what John Kerry said; Iranian Ambassador to Russia Mehdi Sanai also said the same thing - in other words.

TASS quotes a blog in the LiveJournal of Mehdi Sanai: “The lifting of sanctions against Iran will not have a significant impact on reducing the cost of oil. The price of oil has so far declined to a large extent under the influence of other factors. ”

So far, the lifting of sanctions from Iran has visibly hit only the Saudis and their regional allies.

The January 17 stock index of the Saudi stock exchange “Tadawul” has fallen sharply. According to the website investing.com, which leads RBCThe main indicator of this exchange, the All-Share Index, lost almost 300 points when opening trading.

"On the stock market of Saudi Arabia, the collapse at a certain point exceeded 7%," "MK". - A similar situation exists in Kuwait and Qatar. The authorities of the latter even had to raise petrol prices by 30-35%. ”

Bloomberg believes that oil has fallen in price against the background of the lifting of sanctions against Iran, as well as fears of an increase in the overabundance of oil reserves in the world. "Additional oil supplies by Iran have an impact on further price cuts, perhaps [prices will fall] to $ 25 per barrel," Gordon Kwan, an analyst at Hong Kong-based Nomura Holdings Inc., quotes RBC.

Other experts are echoing Kwan.

The lifting of sanctions from Iran will reinforce the oversupply in the oil market, said former Assistant Secretary of Energy, Executive Director of the Energy Initiative Group at Rise University, Charles McConnell.

"The output of Iran will strengthen the global oversupply of oil," quotes the expert RIA News". - Saudi Arabia has already announced that it is not going to lose market share. And Middle Eastern suppliers have the lowest operating costs in the world and can afford to increase stocks. ”

In the short term, the movement in the oil market will be downward, says Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank. His opinion leads RIA News".

“Hedge funds still have a record speculative short position in oil futures, and players who want to fix acceptable (low) prices for the future continue to replenish their ranks,” the expert said.

Analysts also point out that large oil tankers with a capacity of two million barrels each are almost completely filled with Iranian oil and are ready for shipment. Of course, in the short term, these tankers will serve as an additional source of pressure on oil prices.

And what about Russia?

We seem to have abandoned even the forecasts. At the very least, the government is talking about "poor predictability."

"Oil prices remain the same, their further dynamics are also poorly predictable, - quotes RIA News" Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. “Moreover, as you know, Iran’s sanctions have been lifted, and oil continued to fall today. Accordingly, great risks remain for replenishing the budget and meeting budget commitments. ” Medvedev spoke about this at a meeting on the performance of the budget for 2016 year.

“Therefore, additional measures are necessary both in terms of replenishing the budget revenues, and in terms of more vigorous spending cuts, which we discussed at a meeting on Friday,” Medvedev added.

This is not surprising, let us add: the raw material economy of Russia depends greatly on the world conjuncture. Oil is becoming cheaper - the budget is being squandered, the ruble rate is being devoured by inflation, citizens are rapidly getting poorer. With cheap oil, our government is becoming like a meeting of confused people who have nothing left to do but say about “poor predictability” and “big risks to replenish the budget”.

"Already, few people doubt, - writes "Moscow Komsomol"- that oil will fall in price to $ 20, if not lower. Experts predict that our currency will then fall to 100 rubles per dollar. As predicted by the reputable investment bank Goldman Sachs, even with a dollar in 90 rubles, the Russian economy will face a severe crisis: the industry will stop, inflation will accelerate at an incredible speed, unemployment will intensify, as well as falling consumer demand. On Monday, January 18, the official price of the dollar reached the 78,67 ruble (+ 2,1 ruble), the euro - to the 85,62 ruble (+ 2,32 ruble). "

Senior analyst at Rye, Man & Gor Securities Sergey Pigarev said Gazeta.ruthat a significant increase in supply from Iran has already been taken into account in oil prices. And yet, in the short term, pressure on quotes may continue, as accumulated stocks of Iran may be thrown onto the market. The excess supply of oil over the demand on the world market already amounts to about 2 million barrels per day.

“Already in the near future we will see the beginning of the“ onset ”of raw materials from Iran to the European market, where Russian oil will have to compete with Iranian oil, - notes Pigarev. - The price war for Europe may cause significant volatility of quotations of "black gold".

We’ll have to wait for nothing positive, we’ll add, from Iran’s access to the western oil market. It should also be understood that Iran will have to be dumped in the market in order to attract buyers to its goods. This will have an additional impact on oil prices.

As for the negative impact, there is plenty of it for the raw materials economy of Russia. A. Siluanov said the other day about the negative impact of the fall in oil prices on Russia's financial situation.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, participating in the program "Vesti on Saturday with Sergey Brilev", said that the reserve fund and the National Welfare Fund can be "eaten" in 2016 year. Quote by TASS:

“For the current year we can“ eat ”reserves, if we do not take other measures. The reserve fund and that part of the National Welfare Fund that is not invested in infrastructure projects, yes. ”


According to Siluanov, with average annual oil prices at the level of 25 dollars per barrel, the Russian budget will not receive more than 2016 trillion rubles in 3 in the year. rubles of revenues: “The budget is based on $ 50 per barrel. Therefore, with a difference of two times ($ 25 per barrel) I want to say that for income this difference is approximately 3 with more than a trillion rubles. If we imagine that the expenditure budget is about 16 trillion rubles, then reducing revenues by 3 trillion is serious. ”

Meanwhile, financial experts are talking not only about 25 dollars per barrel, but also about 20. In the short term, there are no factors that could prevent this, said Darya Zhelannova, deputy director of Alpari’s analytical department, whose opinion is provided by the business newspaper. "Sight".

The publication notes that the head of the Ministry of Energy has already recommended that companies do stress tests on the price of 25-30 dollars per barrel.

However, in the long run, low oil prices will lead to a significant reduction in production, and this will provoke a rebound in oil prices, says the same Zhelannova. She is echoed by other experts.

“The fall in prices below 25 dollars will make unprofitable mining more than just shale companies,” Valery Polkhovsky of Forex Club told the publication. - First of all, here it is possible to refer Canada with its oil extracted from Alberta’s tar sands. And that's about 2,8 million barrels per day. "

And this is where Iran enters the game, betting on a lower price.

Iranian companies have lower production costs than the market overall, the Vzglyad newspaper writes.

The low cost of production will allow Iran to crowd out other players and take the market share due, says V. Polkhovsky.

However, can Iran? Is this country able to realize its ambitious plans to increase oil exports?

Iranians are optimistic. According to IRNA, referring to the Iranian Ministry of Oil, Iran plans to increase crude oil exports to two million barrels per day by the autumn of 2016.

"We are confident that soon after the lifting of the sanctions we will be able to increase the daily supply of oil by 500 thousands of barrels, and after six to seven months we will increase exports by a million," the Vzglyad newspaper reports to the Minister of Oil Bijan Namdar Zangane.

* * *


In the coming months, we should not expect an increase in oil prices. This is due to a significant excess of demand over supply and the turn of the new global economic crisis that began last year with the collapse of the Chinese stock market. An additional factor that will affect oil prices in the near future will be access to the western oil markets of Iran, from which sanctions have recently been lifted. In order to return the lost market share, Iran will be dumping - at the low cost of producing “black gold” it can afford it. In the short term, the price of oil may fall to 25 and even to 20 dollars per barrel, experts say. According to the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation, Anton Siluanov, with average annual oil prices at the level of 25 dollars per barrel, the budget of the Russian Federation will not receive more than 2016 trillion in 3 year. rubles.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
44 comments
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  1. Pulya
    Pulya 20 January 2016 06: 03
    +7
    And what about Russia?
    We seem to have abandoned even the forecasts. At the very least, the government is talking about "poor predictability."
    In the course of our life, not only forecasts were abandoned ... They sit and blow bubbles ...
    1. Corporal Valera
      Corporal Valera 20 January 2016 06: 49
      +4
      the government speaks of "poor predictability."

      Poor government has poor predictability! Nothing strange. A good government would have understood everything for a long time, and would have rolled up its arms. And these oil prices alone guess like sportlotto. So okay, if only it turned out, and even luck, in the course, turned away from the hand-asses.
      1. Ami du peuple
        Ami du peuple 20 January 2016 06: 58
        +3
        Quote: Corporal Valera
        and even luck, in the course, turned away from the shanks

        Correct: popogolovyh. Through life, they do not know how to do anything with their hands - mental workers. Work hard, what.
        1. Corporal Valera
          Corporal Valera 20 January 2016 07: 00
          +6
          Quote: Ami du peuple
          Hands, they, in life, do nothing - they are thinkers, damn it.

          They do nothing with their heads. They only eat it. I listened to the speech of the main "thinker" at the Gaidar gathering - a wretched disgrace. They cannot even formulate the essence of the problem, but they know nice words about long-term "strategizing". Morons, ... (c) Lavrov
          1. Alexander Romanov
            Alexander Romanov 20 January 2016 08: 12
            +2


            Meanwhile, financial analysts do not expect a sharp drop in oil prices

            I will not read further, they did not wait before and now, how much oil is there? -28 dollars. What for such ANALYTICS means a sharp drop in this case.
            The world economy is heading into the abyss and it pleases. But what to cry fellow
            1. Schulz
              Schulz 20 January 2016 08: 20
              +5
              Quote: Alexander Romanov
              [B]
              The world economy is heading into the abyss and it pleases. But what to cry fellow

              1. Where does it roll into the abyss besides your fantasies. In numbers.
              2. Why do you forgive, rejoice? Do you think this will not affect you?
              1. heal
                heal 20 January 2016 08: 43
                +8
                Quote: Schulz
                Where she rolls into the abyss besides your fantasies.

                Exactly, and even in the "predictions" of Putin, who "predicted" that with oil prices below $ 80, the world economy will collapse. So far, Russia's "economy" is crumbling.
                1. Temples
                  Temples 20 January 2016 09: 07
                  0
                  Interestingly, comrades with English nicknames attacked Romanov.
                  laughing
                  Protect the global economy from Romanov’s attacks!
                  laughing laughing laughing
                  But of course Putin is to blame)))
                  1. Schulz
                    Schulz 20 January 2016 10: 11
                    +4
                    Quote: Temples
                    Interestingly, comrades with English nicknames attacked Romanov.
                    laughing
                    Protect the global economy from Romanov’s attacks!

                    When people are weak with arguments / facts / numbers, they always start discussing nicknames / avatars / flags / personality and the date of registration of the opponent.
                    Take you, for example, and "protect" Romanov "from encroachment" with facts. We wait.
                    PS: nicknames in dogs.
                    PS.2: Schulz, "nickname" is not English.
            2. Corporal Valera
              Corporal Valera 20 January 2016 08: 20
              +1
              Quote: Alexander Romanov
              The world economy is heading into the abyss and it pleases. Not what to cry

              No need to cry. The engine of the world economy is heading into the abyss - yes. And Mr. Siluanov, apparently, is afraid of being late for him
            3. The comment was deleted.
    2. jPilot
      jPilot 20 January 2016 07: 25
      +9
      This is to be expected. Our liberal "government" as a bad "boss" sat down on the oil "needle", parted the pockets and picked his nose, thinking that this freebie would be forever. Amers' analysts are also not fools, they have calculated everything long ago, so they beat them at the place that, in their opinion, will lead to a riot and, as a result, to the collapse of Russia, their goal is clear and understandable.
      We must act, make global economic, industrial and agricultural decisions. AONI look at oil and make all forecasts. Sowing on the nose, it is necessary to stimulate agricultural producers and manufacturers of agricultural machinery, and they again increase investments in US bonds belay And not something else is done, "sit" and decide what other taxes from the people to rip off and push it with money. Oh, they jump, the Russian people are patient, but if they "bring" it to everyone, it will be "sickening", then they will wipe the bloody snot with the words "for what !?".
    3. user
      user 20 January 2016 10: 48
      +1
      We seem to have refused even forecasts.


      What forecasts can be given today with accuracy if the price of oil does not directly depend on its production, but depends on the number of derivatives, this is what Wikipedia writes about it:

      As a rule, derivatives are not used for the purpose of buying and selling an underlying asset, but for the purpose of generating income from price differences.


      those. There is speculation on the part of the United States, since 90% of derivatives were hatched there, and only 2% of physical (i.e., actually produced) oil on the market. So nothing new.
    4. Pilot
      Pilot 20 January 2016 17: 56
      -1
      Quote: Pulya
      Sitting and blowing bubbles ...

      The US game to destroy Russia is another episode. With minimal oil prices, launch another major supplier to the market. Americans have double benefits. And Iran will give oil for nothing and Russia will not receive money.
      And you are the bubbles. You have to hold on. Oil and gas for the needs of the Russian Federation and allies. Not to leave the market but also not to increase sales for pennies.
    5. BNVSurgut
      BNVSurgut 22 January 2016 02: 39
      0
      In the course of our life, not only forecasts were abandoned, but also the reading of articles to the end.
      The last paragraph says that one should not expect a rise in prices due to "a significant excess of demand over supply."
      I am not an economist, but in my opinion the market works somehow differently.
  2. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 20 January 2016 06: 14
    +5
    Well, if you want predictions, you are wrong. We have more than enough of them from all liberals. "Do not read newspapers at dinner" not only in Russian, but also in English. And you will have many, many, many years of life.
    1. Temples
      Temples 20 January 2016 09: 12
      +1
      I agree with you.
      If you want to make the Lord laugh, share your plans with him.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  3. Platonich
    Platonich 20 January 2016 06: 15
    +3
    Confused and obo..alsya, poor thing! The iPhone and others like him even ran away somewhere! But Nagibulina gave a medal for the collapse of the banking system! Retrofitted to the handle!
    1. heal
      heal 20 January 2016 08: 50
      +3
      Quote: Platonitch
      The iPhone and others like him even ran away somewhere! But Nagibulina gave a medal for the collapse of the banking system!

      And someone gave her a medal, I wonder? Isn't it a guarantor?
      1. castle
        castle 21 January 2016 15: 01
        0
        What is the government in Russia? That's right, presidential-parliamentary! Who is in charge of all that is done in Russia? That's right, the president and parliament! Why do we scold the government headed by Medvedev? That's right, the government is a "whipping boy", you can't scold the President and the Duma (parliament).
  4. Same lech
    Same lech 20 January 2016 06: 21
    0
    It is also curious that last Sunday the USA ... introduced new sanctions against Iran related to its missile program.


    Sanctions for the United States against other countries for the United States became like a drug ...
    and like any finished drug addict, sooner or later gets paid for it in the form of ruined health.

    But until it comes to this, WASHINGTON will have time to ruin the life of many countries.
    How to deal with such an addict?
    1. heal
      heal 20 January 2016 08: 53
      +5
      Quote: The same LYOKHA
      Sanctions for the United States against other countries for the United States became like a drug ...
      and like any finished drug addict, sooner or later gets paid for it in the form of ruined health.

      Or maybe just the opposite? Everyone is sitting on the needle that the USA gives (they managed to get everyone to hook), and with the introduction of sanctions, that is, the removal of this needle, those who have taken this needle away (imposed sanctions) begin breaking. So who is the addict?
      1. Same lech
        Same lech 20 January 2016 10: 14
        0
        Or maybe just the opposite?

        It is truth too.... what

        The dollar is the very drug on which the whole world sits.
  5. denis02135
    denis02135 20 January 2016 06: 41
    +7
    Explain what it means to receive less than 3 tril. rubles. What is the price of oil and the dollar? What does Russia sell except oil and gas. What has been done in 10 obese years? Some kind of insanity. Of course, I understand that the Olympics for 50 billion is good, the prestige of the country and everything else, plus a football championship. What's next? Oil for 20-30 and not any prospects, spread out .... flowed with the whole world. Very disappointing. Sorry to be so messy but sore.
    1. Corporal Valera
      Corporal Valera 20 January 2016 07: 30
      +2
      Quote: denis02135
      pissed off .... fell with the whole world.

      Who is "the whole world"?
      1. heal
        heal 20 January 2016 08: 57
        +5
        Quote: Corporal Valera
        Who is "the whole world"?

        And with whom more than once ... who is it?
    2. heal
      heal 20 January 2016 08: 56
      +5
      Quote: denis02135
      explain what it means to receive less than 3 tril. rubles. What is the price of oil and the dollar? What does Russia sell except oil and gas. What has been done in 10 obese years? Some kind of insanity.

      Well, what? Russia is rising from its knees (and still is), they have held the Olympics, they are preparing to hold the World Cup, they have written off debts of a bunch of billions of dollars to all countries. Great achievements, however.
  6. sa-ag
    sa-ag 20 January 2016 07: 02
    +5
    "... Back in August last year, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zangane said that the Islamic Republic intends to regain the second place in terms of production among the OPEC countries. And, according to him, Iran will be able to do this in seven to eight months after the lifting of sanctions. "We must regain our market share, regardless of prices. Iran will not lose anything if prices fall by half and production at the same time doubles. Those countries that have got Iranian market share should worry," Zangane said at the time. Which countries the minister had in mind is quite obvious: Saudi Arabia and Russia. " http://lenta.ru/articles/2016/01/18/iran/ Such an ally
    1. Stirbjorn
      Stirbjorn 20 January 2016 09: 06
      +1
      Well, it’s not his problem that we are still sitting on an oil needle. Iran, in turn, is preparing to purchase weapons from us - T-90, S-300. Perhaps in the future, there will be orders for airplanes and the navy. Iran’s solvency in this area is a definite plus for us. It’s just necessary to work, not to fall for oil
      1. Professor
        Professor 20 January 2016 09: 36
        +3
        Quote: Stirbjorn
        Iran, in turn, is preparing to purchase weapons from us ...

        Do not rush to rejoice. China believes that it will take first place in the Iranian arms market. What, what, but the Persians know how to bargain.
  7. aleks700
    aleks700 20 January 2016 07: 16
    +1
    aleks700 RU  12 January 2016 13: 55 | “A real middle class riot is coming, which has been put under a knife” -4
    What is wrong in the article? Scolding the government for a wrong, harmful economic policy? So here only the lazy one does not scold the iPhone. What with such a policy go to the bottom? Well, let's go. But with the flag raised.
    Interesting. Whatever changed during this time.
  8. fa2998
    fa2998 20 January 2016 07: 21
    +3
    Quote: denis02135
    Explain what it means to receive less than 3 tril. rubles. What is the price of oil and the dollar? What does Russia sell except oil and gas. What has been done in 10 obese years?

    It should be noted that the price in rubles has not changed significantly! And about the "fat years" - it was necessary to develop their own economy, cheap loans to domestic producers - and they bought foreign papers and are happy! Now they are "at a loss", and "the forecasts are bad" ! negative hi
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 20 January 2016 14: 43
      0
      We have seized some domestic producers of loans, and now they are bankrupt - because they could not give.
  9. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 20 January 2016 07: 30
    +6
    Don't care if Iran will enter the world market with oil or not, all this only plays into the hands of our khanygs, because now there is a new horror story "about Iranian oil" and a new opportunity to fill up the budget and continue feeding.
  10. Just felix
    Just felix 20 January 2016 07: 32
    -5
    Iran claims that it has begun delivering oil to its traditional customers in Europe, if this can somehow be explained by the fact that the Saudis entered the Polish market where they have never been unequivocally a loss of Russia.
    1. Corporal Valera
      Corporal Valera 20 January 2016 07: 40
      +6
      "Saudis" is spelled with a small one, and Russia with a big one, Mr. Just Felix.
      1. Just felix
        Just felix 20 January 2016 07: 50
        -6
        typo comrade Corporal. but I’m not at a spelling lesson as it comes out and we write.
        1. Corporal Valera
          Corporal Valera 20 January 2016 07: 52
          +3
          And it's not about spelling, but about respect
          1. Just felix
            Just felix 20 January 2016 07: 57
            0
            do not carp, dvoeshnik what to do.
            1. Corporal Valera
              Corporal Valera 20 January 2016 08: 01
              +4
              I do not quibble. You just wrote Iran and Europe with a capital letter, even the Saudis - with a capital one, and Russia, for some reason, with a small one. Warps a little
              1. Just felix
                Just felix 20 January 2016 08: 14
                +1
                I don’t print every word in letters, as Gugol gave me and pressed, the essence of the comment is to share known information and not to offend anyone. all.
          2. miru mir
            miru mir 20 January 2016 08: 52
            -1
            Quote: Corporal Valera
            And it's not about spelling, but about respect

            Exactly hi
  11. The comment was deleted.
  12. itr
    itr 20 January 2016 08: 00
    +3
    Well !!!!!!! Dear comrades, the whole site! that got off the oil needle)))))))) let's see how we heal due to nano technology and innovation))))))). The oilman of Western Siberia is in the second generation. By the way, our ass starts to feel him right away we started to feel with the whole city. I wonder how people will live in Russia if the oil costs so much ????? dates from this year, I think there will not be. Oh oh oh how sad
    PS. Iran will not be able to do anything for another two years at least, as the entire infrastructure is overgrown with feather grass and no one really knows who to conclude a contract with. So they will not affect nichrome
  13. Egen
    Egen 20 January 2016 08: 13
    +5
    Interestingly, low prices are not beneficial to anyone. This is understandable for producers like the Arabs and us, but also in America, where oil is not a profitable part but the basis of the economy, where, it would seem, the cheaper the basis, the more profitable the "upper" production.
    However, the United States was able to provide its non-volatility with coal gas and shale oil. And their prime cost lies within 60-50 dollars, and even with state subsidies, the price is in 50, and for large players in 40 - krants. For half a year now, fleets of drillers, hydraulic fracturing, etc., and also many small producers have closed and mothballed production wells in Canada, the USA, and Australia. But this also means a reduction in budget revenues and unemployment not only in the extractive industry itself, but also in related mining engineering, etc.
    For example, in the "mountain" states where the boom of coalbed methane began in the 80s, they have turned from poor to one of the richest precisely because of taxes. And now everything is down. And there are many such territories in these countries! This is bad for everyone! But prices are still being reduced ((I don't understand anything about the regulation of the world economy ((
    1. miru mir
      miru mir 20 January 2016 08: 53
      +2
      Quote: Egen
      Interestingly, low prices are not beneficial to anyone.

      And to consumers?
  14. Professor
    Professor 20 January 2016 08: 15
    12
    This is due to a significant excess of demand over supply and a round of a new global economic crisis that began last year with the collapse of the Chinese stock market.

    There is no global economic crisis. We do not need your tales. Over the year, the US economy grew by almost 3%, and China and India by almost 7%, Europe by almost 2%. Everyone would have such a crisis.
    1. Schulz
      Schulz 20 January 2016 08: 27
      +5
      Quote: Professor

      There is no global economic crisis. we don’t need your tales.

      Why are you surprised? If in Germany, for example, when registering crimes, they do not indicate that Arabs / migrants did it (I do not indicate nationality at all), then here they write: "Massive, deliberate concealment of crimes" ...
      If a hundred people protested against the reception of refugees went out into the street, they write: “A wave of mass protests swept across Germany ... and so on.
      1. Professor
        Professor 20 January 2016 08: 38
        +5
        Quote: Schulz
        Why are you surprised?

        I am no longer surprised at anything. The people, looking at their lives, decided that the crisis is not only with them, but all over the world. How to convince them? And on the next branch they generally shout "thanks to the sanctions." Why be surprised now? request

        PS
        In December I was in Kelne, Dusseldorf, Daisburg and Essen. There are migrants. But the most interesting thing is that Turks complain about migrants most of all. Like "these Arabs are bums, outrageous and ... [deleted by censorship].
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. heal
      heal 20 January 2016 09: 01
      +9
      Quote: Professor
      There is no global economic crisis. we don’t need your tales. Over the year, the US economy grew by almost 3%, and China and India by almost 7%, Europe by almost 2%. Everyone would have such a crisis.

      So this is not for you these tales, it is for us, the people of Russia, such tales are in store, because we must somehow justify our own mediocrity in governing the country.
  15. The comment was deleted.
  16. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 20 January 2016 08: 40
    +3
    the government speaks of "poor predictability."

    It is probably difficult to "predict", or rather to predict, when there is not enough professional experience or knowledge. In my head there are only liberal ideas, the price of oil and that the market is simply obliged to regulate everything itself. That’s who would need a brainstorming session.
    Today I read that the United States is beginning to purchase oil. What is not a reason for price increases?
  17. Egen
    Egen 20 January 2016 08: 45
    +2
    Quote: Schulz
    If a hundred people protested against the reception of refugees went out into the street, they write: “A wave of mass protests swept across Germany ... and so on.

    Mr. Schulz, how is the situation with the Arabs in your area and around it really? )
    Yes, may be; was a few years ago in Barcelona, ​​passed through the square saw the people against something protester people so 20-30. At first we did not notice, they stood quietly on the sidelines, not bothering anyone. And then we watch on TV - "mass protest"! When we looked closely, these are the same 20 people but filmed from 4 sides, so it turned out 80)))
    So what do you have - or are they not protesting, or are there fewer Arabs? )))
    1. Schulz
      Schulz 20 January 2016 10: 34
      0
      Quote: Egen

      Mr. Schulz, how is the situation with the Arabs in your area and around it really? )

      What I tell you is not an indicator. Here they write that they are massively concealing the crimes of refugees, and they will write about me the wrong one. You just take a closer look at the stories on TV about this and I hope you yourself will understand how "massive" and "ubiquitous" this problem is.

      Quote: Egen

      Yes, may be; was a few years ago in Barcelona, ​​passed through the square saw the people against something protester people so 20-30. At first we did not notice, they stood quietly on the sidelines, not bothering anyone. And then we watch on TV - "mass protest"! When we looked closely, these are the same 20 people but filmed from 4 sides, so it turned out 80)))

      good

      Quote: Egen

      So what do you have - or are they not protesting, or are there fewer Arabs? )))

      They protest, and Arabs are almost everywhere (where there is more, where there is less, where there is very little), but the problem is still far from the "mass character" as described here.
  18. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 20 January 2016 08: 52
    +3
    No fuss. Until the apple ripens, it will not fall. One should live in labor, peace and confidence.
  19. Cap.Morgan
    Cap.Morgan 20 January 2016 09: 08
    +1
    Russia has lived well all these years.
    Although in the commodity economy.
    The criticism of the government is understandable. But from another country, and what can we produce such that would be in demand in the world? Lada?
    Well tell me, critics of the Russian government, WHAT we can offer from a high-tech finished product.
    Of course, you will say that IT WAS TO DEVELOP something of that sort, to raise science and industry.
    RUSNANO pulls science with all its might.
    Something is not visible results.
    Industry is even better. Electronics do the Japanese with the Chinese. The planes are Americans. And so - everywhere. Consumer goods - China, Turkey, Indonesia ...
    Everything has long been shared.
    In addition, no one is selling us modern technology.
    About 10 years ago, for example, Opel was sold. In the sense of a plant. Went bankrupt. They asked for 7 lards. We decided to buy. You think they gave us. At the last moment, the Americans banned the deal.
    So all that remains is to sell oil and gas, since everyone needs them.
    1. sa-ag
      sa-ag 20 January 2016 09: 44
      +2
      Quote: Cap.Morgan
      Well tell me, critics of the Russian government, WHAT we can offer from a high-tech finished product.

      Recently, China also had a lot of things, they just took it and started producing, to start saturating their market, the same electronics, tools and everything that surrounds you
  20. Just felix
    Just felix 20 January 2016 09: 14
    0
    OPEC's oil basket fell 4.7% to $ 23.58 a barrel.
  21. Performance
    Performance 20 January 2016 09: 48
    +1
    "For a barrel of oil, they consistently give about 3000 rubles - this is all other world currencies feel insecure, it is their rate that constantly jumps!"

    (from read on the Internet)
  22. Belousov
    Belousov 20 January 2016 10: 21
    0
    While the staff members will benefit from the rocking of the situation in Russia, the Saudis will keep prices low, even to their own detriment. And then Iran will come out with decent volumes. The problem is that our economic "leaders" can only cut spending, instead of thinking about additional filling the budget. And when they still have such a desire, then for some reason everything comes down to increasing taxes and raising the retirement age.
  23. fa2998
    fa2998 20 January 2016 11: 48
    +1
    Quote: miru mir
    And to consumers?

    And you ask our motorists! The price of gas was much lower when they gave $ 100-140 per barrel. Now it has risen much. hiFrom 2012-29rub - up to 42 in 2016 - you can calculate in euros but we get the salary in rubles !!
    1. miru mir
      miru mir 20 January 2016 11: 55
      0
      We had under eight, now a little over five hi
  24. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 20 January 2016 13: 31
    -2
    "I believe that if a person interferes with the development of the country, he just needs to be removed from office. Don't wait until he starts taking bribes, break the law, then put him in jail and keep him at the expense of the state. Certainly there are people who are ready to work normally. for the good of the country. They should be involved in the civil service, they are qualified, not indifferent. "..Yu.Trutnev- Presidential Envoy to the Far East and Deputy Prime Minister http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/characters/2016/01/ 20/624699-ruchnom-rezhime-pr

    ihoditsya-zanimatsya-kazhdim-proektom
    1. Alf
      Alf 20 January 2016 22: 52
      0
      Quote: vladimirvn
      “I believe that if a person interferes with the development of the country, he just needs to be removed from office.

      So what is the problem? Or is our tsar’s king so afraid of being left alone in the Kremlin?
  25. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 20 January 2016 17: 28
    0
    Who wrote about the successes of American shale oil production? negative
    ".. The first batch of Russian oil was shipped to the United States after a four-year hiatus, reports Reuters. The Swiss trading company Glencore sold 100 tons of Russian Urals oil to Chevron. The deal price has not been disclosed. According to the agency, the oil was shipped from a port in Primorye and will be delivered to one of the terminals on the Gulf Coast.
    Earlier, the JBC research center called the resumption of supplies of Russian Urals oil to the United States economically feasible, according to TASS. http://ren.tv/novosti/2016-01-20/ssha-stali-zakupat-rossiyskuyu-neft-posle-chety
    ryohletnego-pereryva
  26. BLACK-SHARK-64
    BLACK-SHARK-64 20 January 2016 22: 45
    0
    Quote: Pulya
    And what about Russia?
    We seem to have abandoned even the forecasts. At the very least, the government is talking about "poor predictability."
    In the course of our life, not only forecasts were abandoned ... They sit and blow bubbles ...
  27. Glock
    Glock 21 January 2016 00: 03
    +2
    Just a few simple questions. And the future of our country depends on the answers and subsequent decisions.
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 21 January 2016 21: 46
      0
      "Where is our interest from the sale of extracted natural resources"? - The entire people of Russia cannot receive a response from the sale of oil, since only a smaller part of the population is engaged in the extraction, transportation, storage and sale of oil and other products - they receive earnings, dividends from shares, and the state treasury is replenished with taxes from the sale of oil products, etc. products abroad. Where are interest-free loans and mortgages? The answer is only in a fairy tale - there is no such thing in any country in the world. "Where is free education and medical care?" The answer in Russia is all this, in a ratio of 50 to 50 - the choice of people is affordable and according to knowledge. "Where is the worthy supply of our veterans"? The answer is that our veterans have a good pension and appropriate provision - there are problems, but they are not massive. "Where is the decent pay for the work of ordinary workers and state employees?" The answer is the salary of ordinary workers in Russia varies from 20000 to 500000 rubles per month - it depends on the qualifications and place of work - most of the workers in Russia work for private traders and their salary level does not matter to the state, public sector employees and workers are another matter, but their salaries depend on the economic state of the country - the more money in the treasury, the better for them. This is all a market economy, each person in it is the creator of his own happiness. And this list of questions is the whine of lazy whiners who love to speak from the whole people, there are a lot of such guys in Russia.
    2. Vadim237
      Vadim237 21 January 2016 21: 51
      0
      And the future of the country will in no way depend on the answers to these questions, as well as on the questions themselves.