Military Review

The Great Middle Eastern War

22
Behind the flames of the Syrian war, two fundamental events in the Middle East remain in the background: 1) sanctions have been lifted from Iran, the United States and Europe actually normalize economic relations with Tehran; 2) The United States has deprived Saudi Arabia of its main ally in the Islamic world of special relations, although this country has the largest US military bases in the region.


It is known that the SA together with Turkey with the support of the United States is responsible for the outbreak of a civil war in Syria, which resulted in the emergence of the ISIL phenomenon. The US-led coalition struggle against ISIS paradoxically led to an increase in the territory controlled by jihadists, in the fall of 2015, ISIS was close to the capture of Damascus and the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad.

However, Russia intervened in the Syrian war, the armed forces of the Russian Federation began to really bomb ISIS, and the Syrian army of Bashar al-Assad launched an offensive on all fronts, the jihadists began to incur significant losses. At the same time, Russia organized its own coalition against ISIL with Iran, Iraq and Syria, and supplied the modern C-300 air defense system to Iran.

Against this background, 2 January 2016, the Saudis demonstratively executed the prominent Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, the leader of the Shiite minority in the country, and predictably exacerbate relations with Shiite Iran, where in response to attacks on the CA mission. Countries have already severed diplomatic relations, which usually precedes the outbreak of hostilities. In this apparent confrontation, the United States is calling for a diplomatic resolution of the escalation that has occurred, that is, in fact, they are distancing themselves from the Soviet Union, taking an equidistant position towards the parties to the conflict.

“The United States no longer provides support for the Saudi royal house, it panics, and the Middle East is turning into an oil and powder keg at the same time,” the Israel Hayom publication gives its assessment of the situation, which in this case can be considered close to an objective view.

What happens, what does all this mean? Just some anti-Saudi plot, and with the participation of Washington. Earlier, a low-budget version was expressed that the US wants to direct ISIS aggression, after seizing Syria, to Saudi Arabia, which has begun to pursue an overly independent oil policy. There is a logic to this: according to the same scenario, the Libyan tiger Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown and killed.

Gaddafi also regularly, like the Saudis, supplied oil to the world market, was friends with Europe, but imagined himself an independent leader. In punishment, Washington incited Islamist extremists against Gaddafi, and then the collective West also provided them with military support. It seems that Washington wanted to subject the same punishment to the royal House of Saud, and ISIS was to be the executioner, recalling that he had immediately made threats against the Saudis. However, the entry into the Syrian war of the Russian Aerospace Forces, who began bombing ISIS, disrupted this scenario.

In general, the entire current situation in the region is a long-term result of US policy, the destruction of secular regimes through the instigation of "democratic revolutions". But this did not at all lead to the strengthening of the influence of the monarchies of the Persian Gulf in the Middle East, who sponsored these revolutions. The main prize, which, apparently, was promised to them in return, the Alawite-Shiite Syria, they did not get, and no longer get it.

But the US military defeat of Saddam Hussein led to the establishment of Iraqi Shiite rule in Baghdad, while Saddam was still a Sunni, and Saddam's Iraq was a stronghold against Shiite Iran.

After the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, the Shiite majority “democratically” established themselves in power in Baghdad, the territory of Iraq turned into a war zone between Shiites and Sunnis, and the latter in a minority. Iran, in fact, established a protectorate over Shiite southern Iraq with its capital in Baghdad. Northern Sunni Iraq was ruled by ISIS, and the Kurdish self-defense peshmerga groups. For these Iraqi consequences, Riyadh is incredibly angry at Washington, and apparently suspects him of treason.

In addition, instability from Syria and Iraq began to spread to Saudi Arabia, as well as Turkey. Already as a religious war between Sunnis and Shiites, when all infidels are declared terrorists. The executed Shiite sheikh, by the way, preaching non-violence, was declared a terrorist by the Saudis. In Yemen, the Saudis are fighting with local Shiites, without much success, and may be in a situation of war on two fronts, also with Iran.

In addition, there was LIH. Israeli media directly identify ISIS with Turkey. Since Erdogan is the head not only of Turkey, but also of Turkish “Muslim brothers”, who consider all the jihadists in the Middle East to be their brothers. ISIS’s anti-Saudi encroachments provoke tensions between the SA and Turkey, isn't that why Erdogan visited Riyadh in December?

While the leader of the Turkish Democratic and Pro-Kurdish Party, which is in opposition to Erdogan, Demirtas is visiting Moscow. In south-eastern Turkey, Ankara’s conflict with the local Kurdish population has resumed, assuming the character of a partisan war. Moscow, after the incident with the Su-24, has provided great support to the Syrian Kurds, and in general to all anti-Erdogan forces in the region. The USA is considered to be their duty to take care of the Kurds.

On the one hand, this is an old Middle Eastern conflict with overtones from Sunni-Shiite hostility. But to its development, and in a very unfavorable manner for the Sunnis, and for their own money, led the "democratic" policy of the United States in the region, culminating in the defeat of the Saddam Hussein regime. Which, objectively, strengthened the role of Iran in the region. Now a collision is clearly outlined, on the one hand, the SA and Turkey, if they solve the ISIS problem, and on the other, Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Syria.

The increase in CA oil production, which has led to a drop in its price on world markets, and to which many explanations are given, is most likely a revenge by the Saudis to its guardian — the United States. For the increasing influence of Shiites in the Middle East, and especially in Iraq. Actually, after the Saudis' oil dumping, the United States cooled to them.

It is clear that the Great Middle Eastern War will lead to an increase in oil prices. Who among the global players are interested in high oil prices? Russia, however, it does not have enough influence in the region, and on Iran, and even more so on the Saudis and Turkey. Russia is dangerously close to a possible conflict, and Moscow is trying to act as a mediator in resolving the crisis between Iran and the SA.



And the US is interested in high oil prices, because they are now entering the world market with expensive shale oil. Shale oil producers in the United States need 70-80 dollars per barrel, therefore, in order to pull out their shale industry and occupy a worthy place in the market, the United States must eliminate cheap oil producers. Only the interests of the Anglo-Saxons are unchanged, as is well known, and the allies are transient, especially if they become competitors, like Saudi Arabia.

Thus, objectively, the United States and Russia are interested in raising oil prices. This, by definition, is a winning combination, and the NATO status of Turkey is not a barrier to it. Only Erdogan’s huge compromising material on Washington is a known hindrance, but ... Gaddafi’s compromising information on Sarkozy, and Europe in general, didn’t help him at all. Erdogan can repeat the fate of Gaddafi, if he continues to play the role of the sultan, like many Saudi princes who imagined themselves caliphs ...

The United States at one time fueled Iran’s conflict with Iraq, and now it seems they want to repeat this scenario between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Washington was unable to direct the ISIS aggression against the Saudis, and now it counts on Iran, behind which Russia stands, but does not have the right to "veto" ...

Apparently, the great Middle Eastern war is not far off, its beginning is already before our eyes, but nobody will say how it will end today ...
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  1. Alex_Rarog
    Alex_Rarog 13 January 2016 06: 34 New
    +9
    Damn middle east scribe what a viper ... All damn it against everyone ... And the mattress covers have a profit ...
  2. inkass_98
    inkass_98 13 January 2016 06: 52 New
    +6
    In fact, the war in the Middle East has not stopped already in the 70 years, it just moves from one region to another, there are too many contradictions there, and England has laid enough mines there at one time.
    And it’s high time for the Saudis to feel for the udder, just until the hands of the performer are clearly visible. Puppeteers are quite obvious.
    1. atalef
      atalef 13 January 2016 07: 18 New
      +9
      The whole article, I'm sorry, complete bullshit
      It is known that the SA, together with Turkey, with the support of the United States, are responsible for unleashing the civil war in Syria, as a result of which the ISIS phenomenon arose

      ISIS arose in Iraq, 3 years after the outbreak of war in Syria, as a result of the mediocre US policy and the Shiite prime minister who landed in Iraq.
      The increase in CA oil production, which led to a fall in its price on world markets, and which is given many explanations, is most likely the Saudis revenge on their guardian - the United States.

      But the increase in production by Russia - who needs revenge?
      In the world of oversupply of oil, the economy is slowing down and everyone wants to leave and stake out their place in the market
      Russia is dangerously close to a possible conflict, and Moscow is trying to mediate in resolving the crisis between Iran and the SA.

      There will be no war; Russia will not accept the SA as an intermediary. And no one asks her to be an intermediary
      The United States is also interested in high oil prices, because they are now entering the world market with expensive shale oil. Shale oil producers in the United States need prices of $ 70-80 per barrel, therefore, in order to pull out their shale industry and take their rightful place in the market,

      Fairy tales, shale oil is cost-effective and at 26 bucks.
      You can figure it out, otherwise the articles go through one - in one USA they lower oil prices and it’s profitable for them, in the other they raise it - and it’s profitable for them.
      The United States benefits from low oil prices. Dot. And profitable to the whole world. (With the exception of extractive countries)
      Erdogan’s huge compromising evidence on Washington is a known obstacle, but ... Gaddafi’s compromising information on Sarkozy, and Europe in general, did not help him at all. Erdogan can repeat the fate of Gaddafi, if he continues to play the role of the Sultan, like many Saudi princes, who imagine themselves to be caliphs ...

      Erdogan's compromising evidence on America belay
      Yes, all sneeze on Erdogan. He is already rushing about like a rabbit in a cage, but the point is, everyone is laying on this inadequate.
      . Washington was unable to direct ISIS aggression against the Saudis, and now counts on Iran in this regard, which Russia stands behind, but does not have a “veto” ...

      we tear a template again? and ISIS is not a production of SAUDI?
      Indeed, who will remember about Qatar. laughing
      Apparently, the Great Middle East War is just around the corner, its beginning is already before our eyes, but today no one will tell how it will end ...

      She will not start. There is no one to fight.
      Iran does not rock in life, nor those forces.
      The whole Sunni world, the USA, England and Pakistan, is behind Saudi Arabia.
      Who is behind Iran? Just don’t say that Russia will fit.
      1. Yak-3P
        Yak-3P 13 January 2016 08: 55 New
        -4
        here the hebrew is constantly annoying here .. in the RF .. come EPT critic in the Urals ..
        1. Kostya Andreev
          Kostya Andreev 13 January 2016 23: 53 New
          0
          Mistakenly put you a plus, sorry!
      2. v.yegorov
        v.yegorov 13 January 2016 10: 01 New
        +1
        All rights are 100%.
      3. Alexart
        Alexart 13 January 2016 14: 43 New
        0
        Quote: atalef

        Iran does not rock in life, nor those forces.
        The whole Sunni world, the USA, England and Pakistan, is behind Saudi Arabia.

        Well, the Strait of Hormuz from the Saudis (and other different Bahrains) can try to block Iran for a month, huh?
        For prevention, so to speak.
      4. tacet
        tacet 13 January 2016 15: 11 New
        +1
        Bullshit-rude. I would put it differently - the article is an attempt by the author to tailor some facts to fit his theories (desires).
      5. padded jacket
        padded jacket 13 January 2016 15: 41 New
        +1
        Quote: atalef
        ISIS arose in Iraq 3 years after the outbreak of war in Syria, as a result of the mediocre US policy and the imprisoned Shiite prime minister in Iraq.

        Why then lie again?
        Even your wiki says it;
        Originated in 2003 in Iraq as the al-Qaeda in Iraq terrorist group (Jordanian founder Ahmed Fadyl Khaleilah, known as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi).

        It arose even with the presence of US troops in the country and to fight them, but then the United States and Israel took control of it and used it for their own purposes.
        Quote: atalef
        US profitable low oil prices

        The United States is not profitable low oil prices, they support them as such, together with Saudi Arabia to inflict the greatest harm to Russia.
        Quote: atalef
        And beneficial to the whole world.

        Yes, they aren’t particularly beneficial to the whole world, since oil-producing countries are getting less money and they are starting to buy less products from industrialized countries, so their exports are decreasing.
        Quote: atalef
        ISIS is not a SAUD production?
        Indeed, who will remember about Qatar.

        ISIS is now a joint project of the USA of Israel, the SA of Qatar, and therefore it does not attack them.
        ISIS is "imprisoned" precisely for the crushing of Syria, Iraq, Iran and then Russia.
        Quote: atalef
        The whole Sunni world, the USA, England and Pakistan, is behind Saudi Arabia.

        Again, you forget about Israel, which is behind the Wahhabis of the SA lol
        Israeli Foreign Minister General: Saudi Arabia is our ally
        Dori Gold, director general of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a conference of representatives of Jewish communities in the United States that Saudi Arabia has become a strategic ally of the Jewish state.
        http://newsru.co.il/mideast/31jul2015/gold8007.html
        1. padded jacket
          padded jacket 13 January 2016 15: 53 New
          0
          USA provokes Iran:
          Iran detained two boats of the US Navy
          In Iran, the elite Corps of the "Guardians of the Islamic Revolution" (IRGC) has confirmed information about the detention of two American military boats in Iranian territorial waters. According to the IRGC, the boats ended up in the territorial waters of Iran and were towed to the island of Farsi.
          http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2707376#

          Good Iran has already released these provocateurs smile
      6. Otshelnik
        Otshelnik 13 January 2016 21: 57 New
        +2
        "Saudi has the whole Sunni world, the United States, England, and Pakistan."
        Please add Israel to the list ... be honest!
      7. Weyland
        Weyland 14 January 2016 02: 05 New
        +1
        Quote: atalef
        The whole Sunni world, the USA, England and Pakistan, is behind Saudi Arabia.


        And they will stand - and watch how Iran bends over it!
        In 1939, the Poles were also sure that the USA, England and France were behind them. laughing
      8. The comment was deleted.
  3. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 13 January 2016 07: 15 New
    +1
    How is everything confused, it seems that about the "missing" polymers, the Saudis will soon start shouting.
  4. -Traveller-
    -Traveller- 13 January 2016 09: 36 New
    +1
    Victor Kamenev piled up the garden. through each paragraph about the centuries-old war of the Sunnis with the Shiites, which explains something there.
    Erdogan on a par with Gaddafi. shale oil on the cutting edge of American Middle Eastern politics.
    there is no global war between Sunnis and Shiites, there are contradictions between specific states that are trying to destabilize each other using interfaith, interethnic, etc. factors. there is no Sunni or Shiite world. Shiite Azerbaijan in soft contrasts with Iran and in allied relations with predominantly Sunni Turkey.
    shale oil, and indeed oil for the American economy is in no way decisive. the American economy is very differentiated and the tech industry there is the same as transport, communications, or the film industry, no more, no less. American tech is not a state-forming enterprise in Russia, Kazakhstan or Qatar.
    between the us and sa there are no such contradictions that would push the states to incite saigil, iran or someone else. Both sa, turkey and israel remain key allies of the states in the region.
    there is no big Middle East war and never will be. There are several separate and generally unrelated conflicts, which is not new for the region.
  5. Sars
    Sars 13 January 2016 09: 49 New
    +2
    Quote: atalef
    The whole Sunni world, the USA, England and Pakistan, is behind Saudi Arabia.

    Is Israel not worth it? That's who the Saudi puppeteer is.
    I think that the kings of shepherds are not so foolish as to pull Iran with "relying on the Sunni world" (Qatari, Emirates and other riffraffers), without the support of the Americans. They promised real military support, namely Israel.
    1. Lord blacwood
      Lord blacwood 13 January 2016 10: 36 New
      +1
      Israel will not fit into the war completely. It will be easier for him to send reconnaissance saboteurs (who have already been mailed to Iran). His saboteurs will destroy the data, blow up objects they do not need, and run away.
  6. Lord blacwood
    Lord blacwood 13 January 2016 10: 40 New
    0
    USA with CA allies. They will keep oil prices low while it benefits them.
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 13 January 2016 10: 44 New
      +2
      USA low oil prices are not profitable, because of this, a third of US oil companies are about to become bankrupt.
  7. Belousov
    Belousov 13 January 2016 10: 53 New
    0
    All with knives and only Israel suspiciously avoids damage. How's your favorite leading ruin electorate? "Coincidence? I don't think so!"
  8. Termit1309
    Termit1309 13 January 2016 12: 11 New
    0
    It seems that the royal house of the Saudis wanted to do the same punishment, and ISIS was supposed to be the executioner, recall that he immediately threatened the Saudis. However, the entry of the Russian Aerospace Forces into the Syrian War, which began to bomb ISIS, thwarted this scenario.

    In general, the entire current situation in the region is a long-term result of US policy, the destruction of secular regimes by inspiring “democratic revolutions”. But this by no means led to an increase in the influence of the Gulf monarchies in the Middle East, which sponsored these revolutions.

    Having entered the war on the side of Syria, Russia saved the Saudi House from the Isis. And at the same time weakened the Saudi monarchy, which Isil has sponsored. Oooo fool
    Quote: atalef

    atalef (7) Today, 07:18 ↑ New
    The whole article, I'm sorry, complete bullshit

    Give someone a drink. I agree with Atalef.
    I agree for the first time
  9. Vladimir Postnikov
    Vladimir Postnikov 13 January 2016 16: 40 New
    0
    I don’t know why the author wrote all this. Analysis in the style of student coursework. Iran will not fight directly with the SA. To do this, there is Iraq, Syria, and a number of countries on the Arabian Peninsula. The US will not quarrel with the SA. The time is not right.
    Much more interesting today is Obama's appeal to Congress to send ground troops to Syria. If they do, then the situation in Syria will radically change. Possible partition of Syria. I still do not understand the goals of Russian strategists in Syria. What do they want to achieve? Bomb and show new weapons in action? To be promoted? Bombed. They showed. PR What's next? If the United States does not intervene, then maybe in ten years someone will get tired, and then someone will win.
    But, the US is sure to intervene. AND? It may be worth setting goals and acting accordingly. Is that what is, these are the goals set?
  10. Cap.Morgan
    Cap.Morgan 13 January 2016 17: 15 New
    0
    If Iran had been at war with Iraq for 10 years, why shouldn’t it now be at war with Saudi Arabia?
    I do not see any obstacles
    This coalition — the SA, Kuwait, Bahrain — is not a state — these are tribes with flags, all the more pampered for decades of a quiet, well-fed life. Well, which of them are warriors, God forgive me.
  11. mvg
    mvg 13 January 2016 18: 49 New
    0
    Quote: Yak-3P
    here the hebrew is constantly annoying here .. in the RF .. come EPT critic in the Urals ..

    It is not interesting to hear the opinion of a clever person. Moreover, he has more information than in the Urals ... Or are we still playing in tanks?
  12. Cobra77
    Cobra77 13 January 2016 19: 51 New
    0
    Quote: Aspeed
    The United States has big problems with the industry. Trying to get out of the situation, sell oil.
    Saudi Arabia is not becoming an ally, but a competitor. No competitor needed.


    States have no problems with industry. Do not confuse with the Russian Federation. Yes, they brought a lot of things outside the United States, but only where they are able to control. So although most of the production has moved from the United States to Asia, this does not mean that it is not a state industry. This is just part of neocolonial policy and nothing more. And so that no one would be tempted to take control of these productions, there are AUGs and not weak economic power.

    As for the Saudis, they have never been allies of the States. They were and still are a cash cow and one of the fulcrum in the Middle East. Well, the fact that the cow slightly bucked and brought down oil, duck it happens. And the damage is minimal for the States, won for all kinds of evil Russians and other non-Democrats very much. China really won, but nothing, in the next round they will recoup.

    States have no allies. There are those who need to be restrained and those whom they milk. All.
  13. Cobra77
    Cobra77 13 January 2016 19: 58 New
    0
    Quote: Cap.Morgan
    If Iran had been at war with Iraq for 10 years, why shouldn’t it now be at war with Saudi Arabia?
    I do not see any obstacles
    This coalition — the SA, Kuwait, Bahrain — is not a state — these are tribes with flags, all the more pampered for decades of a quiet, well-fed life. Well, which of them are warriors, God forgive me.


    Iran fought with Iraq because the States needed it. Or did he start that war himself? Americans helped and approved. To say the least. But the Saudi war with Iran is not a fact that Amer needs now. I do not see the benefits. And without the support and permission of the States, the Saudis will never climb into this. Well, Iran does not need this war, especially now. He is not ready for her. Do not win him this war. The truth can’t lose either. But the price will be too high. It is better to rattle with arms, leave a well-known substance and build up your military capabilities, since the embargo has been lifted and you can buy almost everything from the Russian Federation.
  14. 31rus
    31rus 13 January 2016 20: 04 New
    0
    Dear, I completely agree with atalef, the SA cannot wage a war with Iran itself, this is the end of the SA, Iran is not profitable as well, only the sanctions were lifted, and the SA can be obtained with the support of Shiites in Yemen and in the SA itself, in fact the SA just like the Turks got into their own organized problems, the collapse of these two countries is a matter of time, but the collapse has clearly been outlined, in general, the war between Iran and the SA is not beneficial for everyone, even the United States, the region can be overwhelmed by terrorism, worse than Daesh, with modern resources in that rocket weapons, then everyone will not be up to oil
  15. rassel0889
    rassel0889 14 January 2016 00: 06 New
    0
    The impossible is possible, and never say never! All the articles recently, fortune-telling on coffee grounds, two years ago, we also talked about the war in Ukraine, and yet it was, is and we will remember more than once about it. So let's be reasonable, the world is becoming unpredictable, more and more countries are possessing nuclear and thermonuclear weapons, sooner or later these weapons will be used! As they say, if a gun hangs, then it will necessarily shoot. and then the Saudis, Hussites and someone else will not be concerned already .... Well, people cannot live without wars, in the end what this "film" called WORLD should end with
  16. Ivanly
    Ivanly 14 January 2016 06: 02 New
    0
    The East is a delicate matter ... IG, extorting the USA, you need to bomb, often but a lot.