Military Review

The Strait of Hormuz - the future "hot spot"?

22
At the end of last year, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said at a press conference that China hoped to maintain stability in the Strait of Hormuz. It was about a possible Iran blocking the strait. Beijing had previously expressed concern about the likely big war in the region that would impede navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts say that the transport arteries of the Middle Kingdom "squeezes" the conflict in Saudi Arabia and Iran.


The Strait of Hormuz - the future "hot spot"?


December 29 spokesman for the PRC Foreign Ministry Hong Lei, answering journalists ’questions about a possible blockade by Iran of the Strait of Hormuz, said that China hoped to maintain stability in the Strait of Hormuz.

The question of journalists and the response statement arose not from scratch. Earlier, on December 27, Iran’s First Vice-President Mohammad Reza Rahimi warned that if Western countries impose sanctions on the export of Iranian oil, Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Iranian Navy Commander Habibollah Sayari 28 of December reported that the Iranian Navy could "easily" block the Strait of Hormuz. Writes about this Chinese resource russian.people.com.cn.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the “arteries” of the New Silk Road. Through this transport artery comes a significant proportion of oil imported by China from the Middle East. At the same time, Iran is one of the main Chinese suppliers. However, Beijing also buys oil from the Saudis, thinking about diversifying supplies. And here politics interferes with the economy: the Saudis and Iranians are not friends. The three leading suppliers include Iraq, a situation in which you cannot call a stable one. Together, Riyadh, Tehran and Baghdad give China more than 50% of the oil it consumes.

According to Sarkis Tsaturyan, the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran squeezes the transport arteries of the Middle Kingdom. This analyst told the site IA "REGNUM".

After the outbreak of mutual antagonism in Riyadh and Tehran, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China for Western Asia and North Africa Zhang Ming visited. “We hope that the situation in the Middle East will stabilize and the parties will maintain peace,” the official statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. The head of the Iranian diplomatic department, Javad Zarif, in response, promised to expand cooperation with the PRC after the lifting of sanctions.

According to Tsaturyan, the United States is trying to weaken the trade ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran with China. Beijing has become a key consumer of oil and petroleum products supplied from Iran and Saudi Arabia. Americans "can only hope for an escalation of tension," the analyst is sure.

“The picture becomes clearer: the United States is trying in every way to weaken the trade relations of Saudi Arabia and Iran with China, which are conducive to the energy security of the latter. Bleeding Shiites and Sunnis - the easiest way to carry out such an operation. Moreover, now the Chinese economy is under pressure from an expensive dollar, unsuccessfully trying to stimulate exports through the devaluation of the yuan, which fell to the level of May 2011. ”


According to the expert, Washington is not interested in the fact that China reigns supreme in these countries: after all, the total oil reserves in Saudi Arabia and Iran are estimated at 400 billion barrels. The US Navy's 5 Fleet often conducts “anti-piracy raids” in the Strait of Hormuz. The "intrigue" remains, despite the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program. The speaker of the Iranian parliament, Ali Larijani, reminds the columnist, threatened the US administration with retaliatory measures - if the US Congress imposes additional restrictions against Iran.

It was hardly accidental that the visit of Chairman Xi Jinping to Iran was planned (to be held on January 23). Undoubtedly, the leaders of states will discuss Tehran’s problems in relations with the West. The economic goal is also pursued: the Celestial Empire intends to invest tens of billions of dollars in the Iranian petrochemical industry. In turn, the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, intends to enlist Beijing's political support.

As for Saudi Arabia, she, the expert writes, “keeps confidently”: Riyadh accounts for 11% of world oil production. Not so much Iran is competing with the Saudis, as Iraq, in December last year, announced a "strategic partnership" with China. Beijing now accounts for 50% of Iraqi oil exports!

In addition to Syria and Iraq, the Iranian-Saudi confrontation expresses itself, the analyst recalls, in the situation in Yemen, which has access to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea.

The Middle East has become an arena where the US and China are making scores, the author sums up. And the Strait of Hormuz is the "Achilles' heel" of the world oil market and the PRC's energy security.

The collision between the USA and the PRC in the Persian Gulf zone is quite possible, believes Yakov Berger, a professor at the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “The Strait of Hormuz is one of the sensitive points of the future economic belt of the Silk Road. For the United States, this project is a direct competitor to the American Initiative of the Pacific Partnership, ”said Berger to the online publication. "Reedus".

In the event that Beijing is sensitively “pressing its tail” to Washington, provocations are not excluded. The expert admits that the attacks can be from any of the parties.

Berger recalled that Beijing is strengthening its military presence in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa. Not so long ago, an agreement was concluded with Djibouti on the construction of a naval base. This is the first base of the PRC Navy outside mainland China, but hardly the last.

The professor believes that a direct military clash is unlikely, since the United States and China are not the same as the two Koreas.

* * *


Thus, it is not by chance that China expresses its hope that the situation in the Middle East will stabilize, and at the same time it makes frequent statements about maintaining stability in the Strait of Hormuz.

Anyone who buys oil from political opponents like Iran and Saudi Arabia and simultaneously launches the global “New Silk Road”, blocking the Strait of Hormuz, this major transportation artery, has to bear in mind not only the likely economic and political crisis in a difficult region, but even military clash of the opposing sides. Some analysts believe that “Americans are counting on the escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, who do not like the“ undivided rule ”of the PRC in some countries of the region.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
22 comments
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  1. Nikolay K
    Nikolay K 13 January 2016 06: 54 New
    12
    This year we have two prospects: either the blocked Strait of Hormuz or oil at 20 dollars. I don’t even know which option I like more.
  2. sa-ag
    sa-ag 13 January 2016 07: 07 New
    +2
    For example, a year or more in the news slipped information about the plans of the Saudis to lay an oil pipeline along the bay somewhere to the south, if this is the case in reality, then blocking the Strait of Hormuz will not greatly harm oil production
    1. serega.fedotov
      serega.fedotov 13 January 2016 12: 48 New
      0
      Quote: sa-ag
      For example, a year or more in the news slipped information about the plans of the Saudis to lay an oil pipeline along the bay somewhere to the south, if this is the case in reality, then blocking the Strait of Hormuz will not greatly harm oil production

      So the pipe still needs to be laid! And if it comes to blocking the channel, Iran will not stand on ceremony - it has a lot of ground-to-ground missiles! And all sorts of "rebels" will surely start mining such a pipeline.
  3. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 13 January 2016 07: 24 New
    0
    In general, the fleet that the Iranians have will close the strait will be problematic ... but to arrange there a non-childish mess, this fleet is enough.
    1. i80186
      i80186 13 January 2016 07: 53 New
      +3
      Quote: Great-grandfather of Zeus
      In general, the fleet that the Iranians have will close the strait will be problematic ... but to arrange there a non-childish mess, this fleet is enough.

      Actually, there are sea mines and land-based anti-ship missiles. And what about the fleet?
      http://topwar.ru/11599-kozyrnaya-karta-voenno-morskih-sil-irana.html
    2. aba
      aba 13 January 2016 20: 17 New
      0
      In fact, the fleet that the Iranians have a strait to close will be problematic.

      But given that the width of the strait is several tens of kilometers, not only the fleet can be attracted.
  4. podgornovea
    podgornovea 13 January 2016 07: 38 New
    0
    Quote: Nikolai K
    This year we have two prospects: either the blocked Strait of Hormuz or oil at 20 dollars. I don’t even know which option I like more.


    I like more the first option of this oil at 20 dollars. And we can sell oil to China ourselves.
    Iran can offset it through us as during sanctions.
    And the rest will be killed.
    1. Xergey
      Xergey 13 January 2016 07: 53 New
      12
      And we will again sell raw materials and don’t build anything, and so until the next crisis, it’s better if there is 20 each, money will not be enough, corruption will be strangled, production will be raised, agricultural, light industry, since we started to create it, we need to go, and so all their lives they will wipe our feet and mongrel about us like the Baltic states or Poland will vilify us.
    2. Andrei946
      Andrei946 13 January 2016 23: 09 New
      0
      So Iran sells it through us ... It is not in vain that we agreed with Iran on the transition to mutual settlements in national currencies ... And China, no matter how its economy declines, buys oil in Russia too, and in much larger quantities, than the Saudis or in Iraq.
      I wonder where the Saudis lather the pipe to hold. Which south? Is it not in Yemen? Just for what it is needed in Yemen, is it not clear ?!
      An analyst in Tatyas forgot to mention that the ruling dynasty in Saudi Arabia is tough comrades. They really hope that in which case they will be able to escape to the States. But the States, or rather their national elite, need a great war at any cost, but it’s impossible to inflate the fire of war ...
  5. Nagaibak
    Nagaibak 13 January 2016 08: 08 New
    10
    About 70-80% of the oil is produced from the Saudis in the eastern province. "90% of the population of the administrative district (Eastern Province), where the main oil reserves of Saudi Arabia are concentrated, are Shiites." What is the problem?)))) Che in our warehouses nothing was lying around to help the disenfranchised Shiites?))) Considering that the goat Saud sponsored terrorists in our Sev.Kavkaze, repay them with the same coin. And oil prices are adjusted underneath. To the Houthis to plant weapons and ammunition, so that life would not seem like honey to them.
  6. Red_Hamer
    Red_Hamer 13 January 2016 08: 51 New
    0
    Well, you won’t stop the oil fall by a similar article, you won’t stop it. You can still read spells, mantras, hair around 21 (who played cards knows) to pluck, and it will fall.
  7. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 13 January 2016 09: 44 New
    +2
    Oil has become a bit too much. Climb with her all and sundry. Here we are, taking 4-5th place by reserves, by mining ahead of the rest of the planet. We live like the last day.
  8. Belousov
    Belousov 13 January 2016 09: 56 New
    0
    There will be no military clash in this area; there is an overwhelming advantage of staff members over everyone else. Of course, they can pinch them, arrange a small tangle, but nothing more.
  9. Dimontius
    Dimontius 13 January 2016 10: 37 New
    +2
    I would prefer to open this new hot spot by striking nuclear weapons in Qatar for ours in Egypt!
    1. rotmistr60
      rotmistr60 13 January 2016 11: 33 New
      0
      Why exchange? You immediately strike at the United States, I think the power of your computer is enough.
    2. Awega
      Awega 13 January 2016 22: 03 New
      +1
      And not only. but remember that our ambassador was beaten severely in Qatar. And this is Bell's incident. THOSE. cause for war ...
  10. Termit1309
    Termit1309 13 January 2016 11: 51 New
    +2
    Quote: Red_Hamer
    Well, you won’t stop the oil fall by a similar article, you won’t stop it. You can still read spells, mantras, hair around 21 (who played cards knows) to pluck, and it will fall.

    Articles do not stop oil. Spells .... hmm well, I don’t know. And in the article in general, if you read, the conversation is about a possible war. Here it is, the drop in oil prices may stop. But here's how. For the Western world, the question is - a couple of millions killed in the east or a vacation on the sea, is not worth it ... they choose the second. For me - figs with him was not in Thailand and it is not necessary. League would not have been a war.
    Well, for other Russians - choose for yourself.
  11. fa2998
    fa2998 13 January 2016 12: 55 New
    +1
    Quote: sa-ag
    For example, a year or more in the news slipped information about the plans of the Saudis to lay an oil pipeline along the bay somewhere to the south, if this is the case in reality, then blocking the Strait of Hormuz will not greatly harm oil production

    Actually, not to the south (there are other states, including fighting Yemen), but to the west. Such an oil pipeline ALREADY exists. SA can export oil from the Red Sea (Yanbu al-Bahr) hi
  12. Coconut
    Coconut 13 January 2016 20: 00 New
    0
    The Strait of Hormuz is one of the “arteries” of the New Silk Road. Through this transport artery comes a significant proportion of oil imported by China from the Middle East. At the same time, Iran is one of the main Chinese suppliers. However, Beijing also buys oil from the Saudis, thinking about diversifying supplies. And here politics interferes with the economy: the Saudis and Iranians are not friends. The three leading suppliers include Iraq, a situation in which you cannot call a stable one. Together, Riyadh, Tehran and Baghdad give China more than 50% of the oil it consumes.

    draw conclusions lol
  13. Cobra77
    Cobra77 13 January 2016 20: 14 New
    +1
    Quote: i80186
    Quote: Great-grandfather of Zeus
    In general, the fleet that the Iranians have will close the strait will be problematic ... but to arrange there a non-childish mess, this fleet is enough.

    Actually, there are sea mines and land-based anti-ship missiles. And what about the fleet?
    http://topwar.ru/11599-kozyrnaya-karta-voenno-morskih-sil-irana.html


    Do not overestimate the possibilities of Iran. They have at least eggs and iron, but their fists are not pood. No one will let them deploy minefields, the US fleet is constantly hanging out there. If you try to deploy, all Iranian pelvis will be sunk, and then they will talk about the protection of democracy and something else. Well, the presence of coastal anti-ship missiles will not help Iran much, even try to use them. How many are there? What is the effectiveness? And will they have time to start or tomahawks will cover them before they have time to turn around? I think this part of the region is under rather close supervision by amers. Secretly crank is unlikely to succeed.
  14. Stilet
    Stilet 13 January 2016 21: 52 New
    0
    The Chinese comrades are not joking. And do not bargain. Express an opinion. And the islands near Senkaku are being dumped at their side. Do not care for them on the SGA and the Japs ... and for us, by and large.
  15. Cobra77
    Cobra77 14 January 2016 03: 50 New
    +1
    Quote: Stilet
    The Chinese comrades are not joking. And do not bargain. Express an opinion. And the islands near Senkaku are being dumped at their side. Do not care for them on the SGA and the Japs ... and for us, by and large.


    The Chinese comrades are still weak for serious games. And they do not care about the States in more than one eye. Americans are now dangerous to them in every sense. They can slowly pinch them, seep into their sphere of influence, but they will not make serious body movements until they gain sufficient influence and power. The balance of power is not something else. And there are no allies. We are clearly not an ally. In the end, it’s more profitable for us that the Americans would tear themselves over to upset China. Like China, the opposite.
  16. TARAS BULBA
    TARAS BULBA 14 January 2016 10: 19 New
    0
    While the Americans are probing the bay (on Raptor boats)))

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr7LbW9iibc