As he writes in an influential newspaper Financial Times Columnist Gideon Rachman (Gideon Rachman), in 2015, the anxiety and premonition of something bad spread throughout all the "main centers of power" of the planet. These anxious feelings spread from Beijing to Washington, from Berlin to Brasilia, from Moscow to Tokyo. And governments, and the media, and ordinary citizens are nervous and "vzgidki nagryvki."
The new global alarm is unusual, the author believes. For the past thirty years and even more, at least one power optimistic has always been in the world. At the end of 1980's, it was Japan: the Japanese enjoyed the fruits of a multi-year industrial boom and “confidently bought assets all over the world.” In the 1990s, the United States reaped the benefits of victory in the Cold War and at the same time rejoiced at long economic growth. At the beginning of 2000's, the EU was “in high spirits”: the single currency was issued there, the number of members grew. Later, China’s growing political and economic power instilled “respect” to the whole world, reminds the journalist.
However, today “all the big players” seem to have the same feeling instead of confidence - fear. The only exception Rahman “stumbled upon” this year was India: there, both business and political elite, still seem to support the reformist zeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
But in Japan, the belief in radical reforms (“Abenomics”) disappears. The anxiety of the Japanese is exacerbated by increased tensions with China.
In China, too, there is nothing joyful. Mr. Rahman just visited this year in the Middle Kingdom, and his impressions of the trip - the most oppressive. In his opinion, the PRC "feels much less stable than it was two years ago." The era when the government easily received economic growth of eight percent, sunk into oblivion. The Chinese have great concerns about domestic financial stability. In the summer of 2015, the analyst recalls, "the Shanghai Stock Exchange was shaking so much."
Yet the main Chinese concern is not industrial, not economic, but political. The rule of Xi Jinping is quite dynamic, but less predictable than the leadership of his predecessors. “Fear is spreading among officials and businessmen: they are all afraid of being caught up in the fight against corruption. During the anti-corruption campaign, more than 100000 people have already been arrested, ”reports Rahman.
As for the slowdown of the Chinese economy, it affected the global economy. When China was booming, Brazil also rose. In fact, the Chinese pulled it out. And now where is Brazil? This year, the Brazilian economy "sank into the water, shrinking by 4,5 percent," and President Dilma Rousseff was caught on something: a corruption scandal broke out. And there were even attempts to impeach.
Europe is in a "gloomy mood," Rahman writes further. 2015 year was tragic: in Paris, there were two series of bloody terrorist attacks.
The economic crisis has been tormenting the EU for several years now, and this year Greece has almost been excluded from the eurozone. Germany, this former “beacon of political and economic power”, is now trying “with all its might” to solve the problem of the device in the country of a million (or rather, more than a million) refugees, mostly fleeing from the conflict in the Middle East. Between Germany and the countries of Eastern Europe, a “refugee crisis” hammered a wedge. Finally, the UK threatens to withdraw from the EU, and French voters are turning to far-right political forces.
Judging by economic indicators, the United States seems to be the exception to "all this darkness." But is it?
Unemployment here is about 5 percent. The United States dominates the online economy. But the mood of society in the country is "sour," the journalist said. From what? The prospect that Republicans can really nominate Donald Trump, this “boor” and “demagogue”, as a candidate for the presidency, suggests that the United States is “at odds with itself”. And that is true: Mr. Trump’s campaign is built on a single idea: America is in perilous decline.
Further, the author moves to the Middle East. There is no need to talk about political or any other security here. The situation is characterized by the word "explosion". So it was before, so it is now. In addition, "external forces were unable to restore order in the region." Moreover, the “disease” of the territory has spread to Africa and Europe - in the latter case in the form of refugees and jihadist terrorists.
Another fact that worries the world - public outbursts of discontent with the political elites of the West. Citizens are outraged by growing inequality and vehemently criticize corruption at the top. The latter is manifested in various countries, the journalist notes: in France, Brazil, China, and the USA. In America and Europe, the "complaints" of nations are often associated with "reports of national decline coming in from everywhere."
Such social and economic concerns, Rahman believes, have side political effects, fueling in society the demand for so-called strong leaders - such as Xi in China, Trump in the United States, or Putin in Russia. According to the observer, these people promise (but do it “hypocritically”) to solve problems with corrupt elites and defend the interests of the people.
The observer is sure that the world political system is plunging into “global darkness”. This system "feels like a patient who is still trying to recover from a serious illness that began with the financial crisis of 2008 of the year."
Yes, perhaps, there will be no shocks in the future, and then a slow, gradual recovery will begin. And bad political symptoms will disappear. Yet the "patient" is weak and vulnerable.
German political scientist Andreas Umland in his article for «Die Zeit» told about the future of Russia.
Those who speak about Russia in the West often say that the political scientist points out that the West is prone to show hostility and even fear towards Russia. In addition, it is customary to point to the high rating of President Putin, which allegedly arose because he “annexed the Crimea” and began “bombing in Syria”.
The scientist himself doesn’t believe in Putin’s high ratings: where, they say, they should take “from the ruler of a non-democratic country”. In his opinion, everything in the country is under the hood of the special services. And hardly Russian people have the opportunity to receive information from various sources. The Kremlin’s propagandists, the author believes, interpret all events in the world with “aggressiveness and absurdity”, making of them a show dedicated to “conspiracy theories against Russia”. Federal media are engaged in "falsification of plots" and indulge in "paranoia."
And does Russia respect the current government? The political scientist is very doubtful. The scientist does not recommend trusting how the leadership of Russia is trying to play the role of protector of family values in the world and religiosity. The state, which for seventy years suppressed and destroyed its own culture and church, has no right to “teach other countries,” Umland is sure. Even more so, it is impossible to “teach” the world to people like Vladimir Putin, Sergey Ivanov and Igor Sechin: after all, they had served in the past in a Soviet body engaged in the suppression of religion, culture and science. The author calls the KGB the "center of the Soviet apparatus of repression."
The German does not believe in the patriotism of the Russian government either. The leitmotif of the Kremlin is not patriotism, but pragmatism, which borders on cynicism and unprincipledness, the political scientist believes. For the sake of strengthening its regime, the Kremlin uses both nationalist ideas and international principles. In the course are both religious and educational messages. Russia is portrayed as an adherent of European living standards, then suddenly as a Eurasian civilization. Europe is immediately painted in repulsive colors. The author is confident that these pictures depend "on the current situation and preferences of the public."
A political scientist knows the recipe for happiness for Russia. In his opinion, the Russians do not need a Eurasian Economic Union, since it is “corrupt.” They need a trade and investment partner in the form of the EU. Europe will give Russia the opportunity to modernize.
Russians should not converge with the Chinese. The Celestial Empire uses tension in relations between Russia and the West for its own mercenary purposes. China is simply buying Russian energy resources cheaply.
Umland, who considers himself to be one of those who “sympathize” with the people of Russia, believes that political isolation hinders the happy future of this country.
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So, on the eve of the New Year, Western analysts and experts decided to please the Russians with regular forecasts, tips and even “sympathy”. Financial Times observer Gideon Rahman is convinced that Vladimir Putin, like Comrade Xi in China and Mr. Trump in the United States, are not really strong leaders. They only "hypocritically" promise to solve problems with corrupt elites and defend the interests of the people.
According to Rahman, not only Russia, but the whole world, by the beginning of 2016, is plunging into darkness. Nevertheless, the observer hopes that in the near future there will not be strong shocks, and then a gradual recovery will begin.
The German political scientist Andreas Umland in an article for the influential newspaper Die Zeit advised Russia to strive, if not for integration, then for a rapprochement with the EU: after all, Europe can give Russia both the possibility of modernization, and investments, and the possibility of wide trade. Cooperation with the Chinese of Russia is only harmful: they use for their own purposes tensions in relations between Russia and the West, buying resources cheaply.
However, let us add on our own, the West first stood on the warpath, supporting the “euromaidan” in Kiev and endorsing the overthrow of Yanukovych, even if it was corrupt. The coup d'état did not become anything else, and its support from the outside cannot be called a legitimate change of government. The West (more precisely, the United States) spawned a new “cold war” by imposing sanctions against Moscow and announcing the priority of a “policy of containment”. The actions of the Western allies who supported the 2010-2011 years. The so-called Arab spring in northern Africa and the Middle East, and then bombing Libya and helping the “oppositionists” in Syria, was one of the causes of the chaos in these regions. Affected by the war that the United States waged in Iraq (now the country is split). As a result, the next monster was born - the “Islamic State”, which split off the territories of Iraq and Syria. Terrorist attacks came to Europe; they can come to the USA. In Washington, where in the eighties of the last century they decided to support Al-Qaida in order to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan, they know how it happens.
And now the West - for the umpteenth time! - Teaches Russia and even threatens her with a finger: they say, do not teach us how to live, learn it yourself.
But it is Russia that is at war with the IG terrorists in the Middle East. It is Russia that seeks peace in the east of Ukraine - in contrast to the puppet president Poroshenko, who was put in the US kingdom and the "anti-terrorist operation" soiled his hands in blood. It is Russia that is engaged in the expensive improvement of the Crimea, which is attached to the country not at all by means of "annexation", but as a result of a referendum.
Russia's influence in the world this year has noticeably increased. Vladimir Putin in November was recognized the most influential person on the planet (according to the Forbes magazine). Second time in a row. And what is Mr. Obama? Him too found suitable magazine: it appeared for the cover of OUT magazine, a publication for fagots.
Happy 2016 year, friends! On behalf of the editors, I wish all readers a peaceful sky over their heads, health, love, family well-being and good luck! Meet the New Year with a smile!