Vain attempts counterfeiter
How "famous historian" seeks to prove their case.
Doctor of Philology Boris Sokolov made another attempt to "confirm" the figures of the Red Army's demographic losses in the Great Patriotic War (1993 million people) promoted by him since 26,9. Now - drawing up the balance of the male population of the country for 1939 – 1959 years involving the data of the 1939, 1959 and 1979 censuses.
Mr. Sokolov presented the corresponding arguments in the book “Who fought with numbers, and who with skill. The monstrous truth about the losses of the USSR in the Second World War "and in the article" Victory is obtained by excessively large blood. " The results of his calculations are presented in the 1 table, and in the 2 table the data of modern demographers on the male population of the ages considered by the author in 1939 and 1959 are given.
Ignorant hypothesis
First of all, it should be noted that the number of males in 1 in the 1939 – 10 age in the 49 table in Mr. Sokolov is more than five million people more than the demographers (see the 2 table).
Such a large discrepancy is explained primarily by the statement of Boris Sokolov about the large “undercounting” of the male population in the census 1939 of the year. But professional demographers have a different opinion. According to their research, the population of the USSR according to the 1939 census of the year is overestimated by 1,7 – 2,9 million people (2, 4, 6).
In the book on the demography of Russia 30-ies (6), V. B. Zhiromskaya summarized the results of the USSR census survey that decade of the last century (including the results of the special international conference on the 1939 census held in Toronto's 1994) : “... Currently, there are discrepancies in the assessment of credibility and recognition of both censuses (1937 and 1939's. - V.L.) the researchers do not have, the amendments to the 1939 census data for the population almost coincide ... ”(6).
But maybe Mr. Sokolov has very strong arguments showing that he is right. Alas, he does not have not only compelling, but also any sensible arguments. Boris Sokolov discovered an “undercount” of the male population of the USSR at the age of 10 – 49 in the 1939 census of the year (see table 3), relying on the hypothesis that the ratio of the male and female population of different age groups according to the 1939 census of the year should correspond to the number of male and female populations of either the 1959 census or the 1979 census of the year.
This hypothesis is ignorant, since it is based on overly simplistic, primitive ideas about the factors affecting the sex ratio. According to Mr. Sokolov, only wars and repression cause gender imbalance. Therefore, he believes that the sex ratio in the 10 – 19 and 20 – 29 age groups according to 1939 and 1959 censuses should be equal, since it is not affected by wars. And since the Great Patriotic War influenced the sex ratio in the 30 – 39 and 40 – 49 years in the 1959 census, Boris Sokolov equates the sex ratio in these age groups in the 1939 census to the sex ratio in the 1979 census ( see table 3).
The fact that these representations of Mr. Sokolov are incorrect is shown by the data of the 1979 and 1989 censuses. There is no longer any influence of the Great Patriotic War in these censuses on the disproportion of the sexes in the age groups under consideration, and, according to Boris Sokolov, the sex ratio in the same age groups in the censuses should coincide. But in reality there is no coincidence in any age group. This suggests that, in addition to wars, other factors have a significant influence on the sex ratio.
The consequences of hunger
In demography, it is established that the sex ratio in a country's population depends on the cumulative effect of three groups of factors: secondary (the primary sex ratio is the ratio of the number of male embryos to the number of women during fertilization (7) sex ratio: the ratio of the number of boys and girls among live births) differences in the age-specific mortality of men and women and sex differences in the intensity of migration (7).
In the age groups under consideration, differences in the age-specific mortality of men and women, determined by economic conditions (with the intensification of labor, mortality among men increases more than among women), social conditions (with social shocks, mortality among men increases more than among epidemiological, sanitary and hygienic conditions and the level of health care (epidemics take more male lives than women, especially in children’s kovom age), a demographic catastrophe (war, famine, increased mortality among men than among women).
1 table. Balance of the male population of the USSR for 1939 – 1959 years as estimated by B. Sokolov
№ p / p | Name of demographic characteristics | Numerical values (million people) |
---|---|---|
1 | Male population 10 – 49 years old in 1939 year | 63,2325 |
2 | Male population 30 – 69 years old in 1959 year | 32,857 854 |
3 | Decrease in the male population aged 10 – 49 years over the period 1939 – 1959 | 30,374 646 |
4 | The number of dead men of the considered age, but not drafted into the army | 1,1* |
5 | The number of dead soldiers in the period of January 1939 th - June 1941 year | 0,174* |
6 | Balance of migration of men of the considered ages in the period 1939 – 1959 | -0,0501 (-0,237 + 0,0257 + 0,1612 = -0,0501) * |
7 | The number of men of the considered ages who died a "natural" death in the period 1939 – 1959 | 3,0888 |
8 | Demographic losses of men of the considered ages in the Red Army | 26,0621** |
It is quite obvious that all these factors differed significantly in the periods of the 1939, 1959 and 1979 censuses, therefore the sex ratio in them could not be the same in principle. Especially deformed the sex ratio on the census of 1939 th famine, which broke out in 1932 – 1933. It affected the sex ratio of all the age groups in question.
Those who were in 1939 in the 10 – 19 age group of years were 1933 – 5 in the hungry year of 14. In this age group, “boys who are more fragile by nature than girls had a higher death rate from starvation” (6). For example, in the RSFSR in 1933 – 1934, the total age-specific mortality rates for the male population were higher than the corresponding female population rates for these ages in 15,8 per thousand, while in other pairs of years this excess did not reach 4 per thousand.
The male population in the 30 – 20, 29 – 30 and 39 – 40 years of age suffered more from starvation at the beginning of 49's: the total coefficients of their age-related mortality in 1933 – 1934-m were higher than those of the female population on 24,6, XNX and 24,5 ppm.
2 table. Estimates of the male population of the USSR in 1939 and 1959
№ p / p | Name of demographic characteristics | Numerical values (million people) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Sokolov B.V. (1) | E. Andreev, L. Darsky, T. Kharkov (ADH) (4) | Gelfand V.S. (3) | ||
1 | Male population 10 – 49 years old in 1939 year | 63,2325 | 58,185 | 57,4652 |
2 | Male population 30 – 69 years old in 1959 year | 32,857 854 | 33,377 | 32,8578 |
3 | Decrease in the male population aged 10 – 49 years over the period 1939 – 1959 | 30,374 646 | 24,808 | 24,6074 |
In the 1959 census, the 1946 – 1947 famine could not help but mark, although it was significantly inferior in terms of the scale and consequences of 30's hunger. In the RSFSR, in the 10 – 19 age group of years (1947 – 0 – 9 years), the total age-specific mortality rates of the male population in 1946 – 1947 years were higher than the corresponding coefficients of the female population only on 6,4 per thousand, and in the 20 – 29 age group - on 3,8 ppm. The age-specific death rates of 1979 in the male population groups that were compared by Boris Sokolov with the 30 – 39 and 40 – 49 age groups according to the 1939 census were 13,8 and 21,8 per thousand.
Calculations of the absolute figures of male mortality show that 1932 – 1933 famine increased in the RSFSR in the 1939 census the disproportion between the sexes in the draft age by more than one million people compared to the sex ratio of the corresponding ages by the 1959 and 1979 censuses. Since the consequences of the 30 starvation famine, similar to those considered, were also in Ukraine and Kazakhstan, the famine increased the disproportion of the sexes by about 1,7 million people for the whole USSR, which practically coincides with the “underreporting" of the male population by the 1939 census (see table 3). It should also be noted that in addition to the famine, the increase in male mortality in the 30-ies caused economic and social changes due to the industrialization of the country and the collectivization of agriculture.
Thus, the disproportion of the sexes in the 1939 census of the year is not the result of “undercounting" of men of draft age, as Mr. Sokolov believes, but a consequence mainly of the 1932 – 1933 famine.
Defined, to put it mildly, incorrectly
Now about the “amendment” to the underreporting of the female population in the Muslim regions of the country (778,2 thousand). This is generally some kind of ridiculous, fantastic construction that has nothing to do with reality. For some reason, Boris Sokolov imagined that in the 1939 census of the year in the Muslim regions of the country at all ages from 10 to 49, the male advantage "was due to a significant undercount of the female population" (1). This means that, according to Mr. Sokolov, the number of males and females in Muslim regions aged 10 – 49 should be the same.
But this is an absurd idea. It is the same as to consider men and women anatomically quite the same. In fact, male preponderance is natural for these ages in all Muslim countries and regions (and not only in them). Moreover, there is a male preponderance until the age of 65 years, and in the states located on the Arabian Peninsula, where the traditions of Islam are strong (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Bahrain) - at all ages (8). The main reason for this trend is the continued downgrading of the role and position of women in the family and society. Women in Muslim countries and regions are usually less educated and live in more difficult socio-economic conditions, their mortality is higher. In Muslim families, the birth of girls is less desirable than the birth of boys. Since the traditions of Islam were still strong in the Caucasus and Central Asia in the 30s of the last century, in these regions there was a more significant male advantage at the ages under consideration than in other regions of the USSR.
3 table. The results of B. Sokolov’s “undercounting” of the male population according to the 1939 census of the year.
Male population at 1939 census of the year | What, according to B.V. Sokolov's hypothesis, should be the sex ratio of the census 1939 of the year | B. Sokolov's calculations of "undercounting" the male population in the 1939 census of the year | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Age groups | Number (persons) | In% of the male population of the relevant age group on the census 1939 of the year | The number of "undercount" (thous.) | |
10 – 19 years | 18 691 362 | Sex ratio in the age group 10 – 19 years according to 1959 census | 3,28 | 604,4 (1) |
20 – 29 years | 15 033 500 | Sex ratio in the age group 20 – 29 years according to 1959 census | 2,52 | 1293,7 * (1) |
30 – 39 years | 12 351 640 | Sex ratio in the age group 30 – 39 years according to 1979 census | 3,10 | 382,9 (1) |
40 – 49 years | 7 058 239 | Sex ratio in the age group 10 – 39 years according to 1979 census | 5,29 | 373,4 (1) |
Total | 2654,4 + 778,2 – 492,6 = 2940,0 |
So, the figures of the "undercounting" of the male population of the USSR according to the 1939 census of the year are false. They were fabricated by Boris Sokolov on the basis of primitive, not having any relation to the reality of the sex ratio in the population of the USSR.
Thus, in Mr. Sokolov’s balance sheet (see table 1), the male population aged 10 – 49 years in 1939 should be reduced by 3322,2 to thousands of people (2940,0 thousand people + 389,2 thousand people - extrapolation of “undercounting” on population of the territories attached to the USSR in 1939 – 1940 (1) - up to 59,9033 million people. In addition, out of the available population estimates of the territories attached to the USSR in 1939 – 1940 years (17 – 23 million people) B.V.S. chose the maximum (23 million), while obtaining the number of men of draft age on this In their territories, thousands of people are equal to 7002,6. If you use the full range of population estimates for the territories attached to the USSR in 1939 – 1940, the number of men of military age in these territories will be 5175,8 – 7002,6 thousand.Thus, in Boris Sokolov’s balance, the total male population of the USSR is aged 10 – 49 years in 1939 should be reduced to 58,1 – 59,9 million people.
Other components of Mr. Sokolov’s balance are also identified, to put it mildly, incorrectly.
As a result of calculating a rather rough method (according to average mortality rates) and additional manipulations, he obtained the 3088,8 number of thousands of people who died by “natural” death over the period 1939 – 1959 for men of 10 – 49 years in the 1939 census of the year (1). Meanwhile, according to the results of other studies (4, 3), obtained by a much more accurate method - the age-shifting method, only in peacetime from 1946 to 1959 a year, the number of deceased men who turned 1939-10 years old from 49 thousands of people (4268,8) to 3 thousand people (4750). Taking into account the “natural” dead men of the considered ages in 4 – 1939 (1945 thou. People (3408)), we find that the total number of deaths in 4 – 1939 is the “natural” death of men, which according to the 1958 census of the year were 1939 – 10 years , ranges from 49 to 7,7 million people, that is, 8,1 – 4,6 million more than “counted” by Boris Sokolov.
Not about 27 millions
Understated by Mr. Sokolov and the number of dead men of the considered age from the number who did not serve in the army, and the balance of male migration. The percentage of dead men of military age who did not stand up for various reasons in the ranks of the USSR Armed Forces during the Great Patriotic War, with total civilian losses 14,5 – 17,9 million people (2) was about 40 percent, that is 5,8 – 7,2 million people. In the balance of migration of the male population of the ages under consideration, Boris Sokolov did not take into account the remaining Soviet prisoners of war in the West (200 th.) And men taken to Germany (100 – 200 th.).
In addition, B.V. Sokolov greatly underestimated the number of post-war emigrated men of the age in question (237 thousand people with a total external migration of 1,4 million people (1). Total external migration from the USSR to 1945 – 1949 years (due mainly to population exchange between the USSR and other countries within the new borders) is estimated by demographers on a much larger scale - 3 – 5,5 million people (9). At the same time, the number of emigrated men of the ages in question was more than one million people. On the migration of men of military age in 1939 – 1959 there were at least 1,5 a million people. In turn, A. G. Vishnevsky and Z. A. Zayonchkovskaya give such figures of external migration from the USSR to 1939 – 1948 – million 8 – 10 (10).
Taking into account these adjustments, the total demographic loss of men of the ages under consideration in the Red Army (see the last row of the 1 table) should be reduced to 8,4 – 11,0 million people.
The above evidence quite convincingly refutes the findings advocated by Boris Sokolov about the demographic losses of the Red Army - 26,9 million people. By the way, he “calculated” them with a method that is absolutely unsuitable for determining casualties on the Soviet-German front due to its excessive, fundamentally unavoidable methodological errors. But that's another topic.
Sources of
1. Sokolov B.V. “Who fought with numbers, and who with skill. The monstrous truth about the losses of the USSR in the Second World War. ” M., Yauza Press, 2011
2. Rybakovsky L. L. "The loss of life of the USSR and Russia in the Great Patriotic War." M., RAS, 2001
3. Gelfand V.S. “Population of the USSR over 50 years (1941 – 1990): A statistical handbook”. Perm, publishing house Perm. Un-ta, 1992
4. Andreev, E. M., Darsky, L. E., Kharkov, T. L. “Population of the Soviet Union 1922 –1991”. M., "Science ,, 1993
5. "The All-Union Population Census 1939 of the Year: Main Results." M., "Science", 1992
6. Zhiromskaya V. B. “Demographic story Russia in 1930-s. A look into the unknown. M., "Russian Political Encyclopedia" (ROSSPEN), 2001
7. Medkov V. M. "Demography" (textbook). M., INFRA-M, 2008
8. whoyougle.ru/place/statistics/sex-ratio
9. "Peoples of Russia" (encyclopedia). M., scientific publishing house “Great Russian Encyclopedia”, 1994
10. Vishnevsky A., Zayonchkovskaya J. “The waves of migration”. Free Thought, No. 12, 1992
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