The analytical program of Mikhail Leontyev "However," 23 December 2015
Against the background of a fall in oil prices, the message that Congress allowed the export of American oil made an impression of a control shot. Right now, flows of American oil will flow to the market, and everything will finally collapse. Do not pour and will not collapse.
The oil export ban imposed by the United States in response to the Arab oil embargo lasted more than 40 years. In order to achieve a majority in Congress, the oil lobby had to pledge more than a trillion dollars in subsidies for the development of alternative wind and solar energy.
That is literally thrown to the wind. What you will not do for the sake of the native American oil industry, which has already been lowered below the baseboard. Contrary to popular belief, America is not interested in low energy prices. She is interested in prices significantly lower than the main competitors.
The shale revolution in the United States provided fantastic growth in oil production, abruptly slowed down as a result of falling prices and turning into a decline in the 2016 year.
The Wall Street Journal, still at a price of about 50 dollars per barrel, wrote that shale companies had reached a limit in reducing their costs. When the number of drilling rigs in the industry fell over the year to 2 / 3. "24 largest shale companies reported losses totaling more than 62 billion dollars. At the moment we are talking about the best areas, the best equipment, the best personnel. All the cost reductions from now on will no longer be fat loss, but cutting the meat."
There is an opinion that the prices are lowered by the Saudis, increasing production to remove expensive oil from the market, primarily American slate.
This is a bold idea, considering how obsessed America is with its energy security. And now, when a couple of steps remained until the United States reached full energy independence, some Saudis decided to shoot the American shale revolution ?! Given the fact that Saudi Arabia itself exists only with the permission and under the guarantees of the United States. You must agree that the version looks much more convincing that the Saudis, and, by the way, not the first time, are fulfilling a responsible task - to remove from the market not even the Russian oil industry, but Russia itself.
That is, if we imagine that the current American administration is obsessed with anti-Putin revenge even more than its own energy security. And then the permission to export oil is additional evidence of that.
Now America produces 9,2 million barrels per day, consumes, processing at its plants 16,7. That is, America remains - and now, after the killing of the shale revolution, it will remain for a long time - the largest importer of oil. The peculiarity is that American factories are adapted for heavy imported oil - Venezuelan, Mexican ..., and all the additional shale production is light oil - WTI, which overwhelmed American stores and put pressure on quotes. This very oil will now be exported.
That is, because of American exports, there will no longer be any oil on the market; simply, American imports will grow accordingly. In order for US exports to threaten oil prices, the prices of this oil must be high enough to justify its production.
It seems to us that the Saudis shot the wrong one. Who they ordered. Or the customer did not see in the heat of the geopolitical struggle.
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