Military Review

Russia has ceased to be a "main threat"

27
The other day, the Council on Foreign Relations (USA) published an official document entitled “Preventive Priorities Survey: 2016” (“Preventive Priority Study, 2016 Year”). Experts rated potential threats to national security and US interests in the coming year. The primary “threats” are not connected with Russia, but with the Middle East.


Russia has ceased to be a "main threat"


The priority for American politicians in 2016 should be to prevent the further escalation of the civil war in Syria. So say the leading experts who participated in the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). This is celebrated in the eighth annual release. of the report Council on Foreign Relations (USA), entitled “Research Preventive Priorities, Year 2016”. The report summarizes assessments of possible threats to national security or US interests in the coming year.

According to analysts, the civil war in Syria is ahead of the conflict in Iraq and becomes “number one” in the list of “unrest”.

Invited CFR experts seek to assess conflicts by the degree of their influence on US national interests. During the study, almost a thousand “threats” were identified, the number of which was reduced to thirty in the evaluation process. Officials, scientists, and foreign policy experts ranked the threats. Three categories of hazards were created: high, medium and low.

The annual review sought to identify “potential areas of instability” and help US politicians to “foresee the unforeseen,” since certain “circumstances” could threaten the “national interests” of the United States. The study helps focus attention and resources on specific conflicts in the coming year, research leaders said.

Of the eleven “unforeseen” threats that have been assigned a “high priority” level, eight are associated with events unfolding or already occurring in the Middle East. One of eleven concerns the escalation of the civil war in Syria. Respondents also "increased" the degree of priority for the preservation of political power in Libya, political violence in Turkey and increased instability in Egypt. All three threats have risen from moderate priority (2015 year) to high (2016).

Among the unforeseen threats specifically introduced in the new survey was political instability in the countries of the European Union caused by the influx of refugees and migrants and increased tensions between Russia and the member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Top priorities for preventing US conflict in 2016 include:

- escalation of the conflict in Syria;

- probable attacks with mass casualties in the United States or in an ally;

- extremely destructive cyber attacks on key US infrastructure;

- Severe crisis in North Korea;

- political instability in the EU countries due to the influx of refugees and migrants;

- continuing political split in Libya;

- increased tensions between Israelis and Palestinians;

- the increase in political violence in Turkey;

- increase political instability in Egypt;

- increased violence and instability in Afghanistan;

- problems in Iraq due to the territorial seizures of the self-proclaimed “Islamic State” and the continuing strife between sectarians (Sunnis and Shiites).

The three conditional threats that were included in last year’s review are unlikely to occur in 2016: armed confrontation in the South China Sea, renewed hostilities in eastern Ukraine and political instability in Nigeria due to the activities of the Boko Haram group. So say the researchers.

As for Russia, it is not among the "priority" threats. Escalating the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the list has been assigned only “medium” status. The reason for this decision was a truce in the Donbas.

So, Russia has ceased (at least officially) to be "enemy number one" for the United States. What do the experts think about this?

"Now, when Russia, in the same way as the United States, is distracted by Syria, respectively, there can be no immediate danger from it," said "Free Press" Associate Professor of the Department stories and politicians of Europe and America MGIMO Andrei Kryzhanovsky. - And both sides are interested in the speedy end of the war. Another thing, of course, is that the United States has its own goals. And they want to try with the hands of Russia to bring the Syrian opposition to power. But this is a separate question. And that is why the Syrian stake ... The Middle East rate in this global game is much higher than the imaginary threat from Russia. "

According to the expert, the potential threat can not be discounted. The United States "managed to draw Russia into the war in Syria - and this is the most important thing." “Once Russia is involved in the Syrian war,” said the expert, “it means that even attention to the Ukrainian conflict is somewhat weakened. This is now noticeable already. " “Therefore, the United States has achieved its goals and can state that the Russian threat is not a priority at the moment,” Kryzhanovsky concluded.

“We never wanted to threaten anyone and did not threaten,” Gevorg Mirzayan, a researcher at the Institute of USA and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said. “All recent actions are primarily related to the fact that Moscow wanted its interests to be respected and allowed to take the place that it deserves by virtue of its military and economic potential.”

The expert is confident that today Russia "has taken everything of its own."

“Our interests in Ukraine are respected, even if it is not explicitly stated,” he noted. - In Syria, we generally assumed the role that the Americans did not fulfill. And thus sharply raised their authority in the Arab world. With Europe, we also seem to be starting to negotiate on new terms. Therefore, it makes no sense to position Russia as a threat. ”

* * *


Thus, despite a number of previous statements by Obama, as well as statements by the high-ranking American military who pointed to Russia as the “number one” enemy of the United States, American experts do not see in Moscow that strategic enemy to which attention should be paid. Russians are not “enemies” today, they will not become them tomorrow.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
27 comments
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  1. nemets
    nemets 24 December 2015 07: 05
    10
    The Russians are not “enemies” today, they will not become them tomorrow, well, yes, of course, we have already passed this. do not believe the Anglo-Saxons cheated
    1. Galich Kos
      Galich Kos 24 December 2015 07: 32
      +5
      The Russians are not “enemies” today, they will not become them tomorrow - well, yes, of course, we have already passed this


      In-in. We did not have time to deal with Hitler, but these plans were already concocted to destroy the USSR. So trust these comrades, do not respect yourself.
      1. Kasym
        Kasym 24 December 2015 08: 08
        +6
        US foreign policy is snapping at the seams. The nations in the world see everything, and the puppet (vassals) of the US government are no longer authoritative for their peoples, despite the propaganda. So the United States has to reduce the degree of hostility.
        USA got into an idiotic situation. On the one hand, the situation requires active action in Iraq and to abandon (or relocate to Africa or Afghanistan with Pakistan, which is likely to happen)) of their tame terrorists (it is necessary to record the victory at your own expense - God forbid the Russians get it). On the other hand, to drop them, and then start bombing them - is to get terrorist attacks in the USA and Europe. Then Turkish affairs come out. Discontent over the actions of the United States and its puppets is already ripening all over the world, and what remains of the Yankees (especially since GDP is now the world's No. 1 most popular) to do !? Cut back and ask the GDP to save their face, at least in their homeland (elections are just around the corner). And it means to agree (Kerry, Hollande and others came as expresses). It's only the beginning. It is already clear that the militants in Syria are left without heavy weapons and battles are ahead only in settlements. And in the east of Syria there are few. They will gradually grind it in the west of the country and at the borders, and then it will be easier. Well, most likely they will actively support the Kurds. Two years ago I wrote that the Kurds will play one of the main roles there (only to give weapons, they have been fighting for a long time), and that Erdogan is conducting the wrong policy towards them. hi
    2. Kadavercianin
      Kadavercianin 24 December 2015 22: 29
      +1
      Well, the NATO bloc will break up, which, just against the Warsaw Pact countries was created, then we’ll see that the Warsaw Pact is no longer there, and there is NATO and against whom it’s necessary then guess what it’s called.
  2. serzhserzh86
    serzhserzh86 24 December 2015 07: 06
    +5
    The main danger for the United States is the US government.
  3. Galich Kos
    Galich Kos 24 December 2015 07: 10
    0
    Experts assessed potential threats to national security and US interests in the coming year. The primary “threats” are not connected with Russia, but with the Middle East.

    The existence of Russia capable of standing up for itself both militarily and economically is in principle a threat to US interests.
    1. varov14
      varov14 25 December 2015 00: 02
      0
      Is it possible that if you become strong and successful you go to conquer the United States that there are not enough Negroes, or what?
  4. Same lech
    Same lech 24 December 2015 07: 10
    +6
    American experts do not at all see in Moscow that strategic adversary to which priority should be paid. Russians are not “enemies” today, they will not become them tomorrow.


    Calming down to deceive us again .... it was more than once.

    For me personally, the USA is the enemy No. 1 because all the most serious troubles (wars, revolutions, sanctions) of RUSSIA (in addition to their own fools in our government) ultimately come from there and they are destructive for a single person.
    1. Stanislas
      Stanislas 24 December 2015 08: 00
      0
      Quote: The same LYOKHA
      Calm down to deceive us again
      I also thought that after such statements one could expect another dirty trick from these "partners".
  5. Stoler
    Stoler 24 December 2015 07: 13
    0
    I hope our management believes in these reassuring "statements".
    1. varov14
      varov14 24 December 2015 23: 59
      0
      Our leadership always believes in partners, sometimes we visit a church, though sometimes a plane can be shot down, or sanctions applied, confiscated. But here, by faith, it is rewarded.
  6. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 24 December 2015 07: 28
    +1
    Nonsense, no matter what the USA and the whole world are lying to, we are for them an "evil empire2" and therefore they will never let us live peacefully and calmly.
    1. good7
      good7 24 December 2015 08: 41
      0
      Obviously, our potential cannot be compared to the potential of the USSR, it is not only a matter of the population, industrial potential. Staffing is simply not about anything. Corruptionist on corruptionist. We have 2 wars at the moment and, to put it mildly, instability in a number of regions. Therefore, saying evil empire 2 you are mistaken for this title can only claim that China or KSA
  7. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 24 December 2015 07: 35
    +2
    I already wrote on this subject that in this situation, as in arithmetic, three are written, two in the mind. If Russia was not named, this does not mean that we have ceased to be a threat to them. They will try to spread rot in all directions.
    1. varov14
      varov14 24 December 2015 23: 50
      0
      Therefore, the sanctions add that we are no longer a threat, and the president has repeatedly sworn assurances to partners and they already learned all that we have.
  8. parusnik
    parusnik 24 December 2015 07: 53
    +4
    The Council on Foreign Relations (USA) has published an official document entitled “Preventive Priorities Survey: 2016” (“Study of Preventive Priorities, 2016”). Experts assessed potential threats to national security and US interests in the coming year. The primary “threats” are not connected with Russia, but with the Middle East.
    .... What a joy ... Russia is no longer the "main wife" .... smile
    1. Vladimirets
      Vladimirets 24 December 2015 08: 04
      +2
      Quote: parusnik
      Russia is no longer the "main wife"

      It's a shame. recourse
  9. Coronel76
    Coronel76 24 December 2015 08: 01
    0
    Russia has ceased to be a "main threat"

    Again, they are cunning, they powder our brains, in a word, the civilization "Vuzey", intelligent lizards.
  10. avva2012
    avva2012 24 December 2015 09: 09
    +2
    According to the expert, a potential threat cannot be discounted. The US "managed to draw Russia into the war in Syria - and this is the most important thing."
    Maybe authority, maybe an expert. It seems that Russia, the USA, they really did not want to see there. Before us, everything was fine: those who wanted to sell the oil, those who wanted to, chunks of territory were already drawing on their maps, who wanted to, were going to continue to fan the jihad. Lyapota was, and now?
  11. voyaka uh
    voyaka uh 24 December 2015 09: 48
    +1
    As soon as they do not run into Obama, but
    in general, he is not a bright politician, but a peace-loving guy.
    All that he was keenly interested in was his reform of health insurance in the United States.
    With him, for the first time in many years, the U.S. Army
    at the bases, not in the trenches.
    I'm not sure that under Hillary or Trump this will continue.
  12. afrikanez
    afrikanez 24 December 2015 10: 07
    0
    If you carefully read all the Top priorities for the prevention of US conflicts in 2016, it is clear that the Americans are trying to finish what they have not yet completed! In fact, finally ruin something. what has not yet collapsed!
  13. moskowit
    moskowit 24 December 2015 10: 18
    0
    Like two days ago there was similar material? And the name is almost the same ...
  14. moskowit
    moskowit 24 December 2015 10: 41
    0
    And this is for the sake of convincing that I am right. And then higher for the truth already minus.

    "Russia is no longer on the list of America's top threats
    December 21, 2015 "
  15. YakimovSS
    YakimovSS 24 December 2015 11: 19
    -1
    "In Syria, we generally took on a role that the Americans did not fulfill. And thereby sharply raised our authority in the Arab world."
    In what kind of "Arab world" did we increase our authority?
  16. The_observer
    The_observer 24 December 2015 13: 47
    0
    AMAZING! But part of the Arkhangelsk region does not pose any threat to the USA at all!
    laughing
    1. varov14
      varov14 24 December 2015 23: 39
      0
      Even more amazing is my garden too
  17. gla172
    gla172 24 December 2015 14: 04
    +3
    __________ ??? .....
  18. Petrik66
    Petrik66 24 December 2015 16: 56
    0
    Militants on the site - Do you want war? Do you want to bang? Is the whole world in dust? well, and us - to dust! Calm down, drink beer "Baltika" because you don't drink anything else out of patriotism and look at the New Year's light. You look - let go.
    1. Yak28
      Yak28 24 December 2015 18: 54
      0
      Even after a nuclear war, when everyone shoots out the whole world will not turn into dust, not so destructive nuclear weapons as it is customary to think, there will remain people and combat-ready units, and it will not affect any countries at all
  19. varov14
    varov14 24 December 2015 23: 36
    0
    And in general it is not clear why American Jews do not want to take our Jews for their own. Ours is already tired of saying through Putin that we are of the same blood and views. In childhood, they’re not circumcised, suffer because of them.
  20. Sergey-8848
    Sergey-8848 25 December 2015 05: 36
    0
    Nobody is looking towards Pakistan, as if there was silence and grace, and they are as if completely tied to the Indians. But taking into account pseudo-Islamic tales and dances in this region, this is the first object to attack and capture nuclear weapons. This threat, even in the long term, is terrifying, because nobody seems to be going to counteract it.