The garlic crisis, or the imaginary numbers of the domestic economy
During his big press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that one of those moments that should be attributed to a certain positive in the Russian economy against the background, to put it mildly, of the difficult general situation in the financial and economic segment, is a significant decrease in outflow volumes capital abroad. Preliminary data for 2015 year suggests that about 58 billion has flowed from the Russian harbor to other banks. So this is a huge amount - what is presidential optimism based on?
The fact is that last year the amount of capital outflow from Russia amounted to more than 148 billion dollars, almost a third exceeded the average for the previous 10 years. The financial system of Russia from 2004 to 2013 year (inclusive) lost an average of 104-105 billion dollars annually, and this is more than 30 more than the amount of funds that are currently placed in the National Welfare Fund (NWF) of Russia. In other words, in the specified period of time, the treasury of Russia lost 13-14 "NWF"!
It is quite clear that if at least half of these funds remained in Russia, then we would not have to talk about any kind of overcoming of the next economic crisis. But, as they say, did not grow together - the capital of hundreds of billions annually left Russia, and therefore we have what we have ...
If one pushes oneself purely from the statistical indicators of capital outflows, then there is something positive. A threefold reduction in capital outflows compared with the previous year is quite a positive phenomenon. However, the positive here looks a little sly. After all, it’s vigorously rejoicing over the withdrawal abroad on the “black” and “gray” routes of 58 billion instead of 104-105 (or 148, as in 2014) dollars - this is from the same series that rejoice over the following: “I used to be stolen 104 pocket bills, and now only 58. ” At the same time, the whole point is that stealing out of your pockets has become less, not because thieves have become more honest, but because you don’t wander around in this pocket, for example, in 2012 or 2013 (in dollar equivalent). And there are reasons for reducing the amount of funds. They are very, very commonplace.
If at the beginning of 2014, the dollar was 33-35 rubles, today it is already more than 71 rubles. And if we take into account that the profits of those who take the money over the hill are received in rubles (if illegal enrichment can be called profit at all), then the transfer of funds into dollars will lead to 2012-2013's figures. That is, the decline in capital outflows is very likely due to the fact that the dollar has risen against the ruble. After all, if you translate the same 58 billion into rubles at the current rate, then it is about the same amount of funds (and even more), which is equivalent to the mentioned 104-105 billions of dollars at the rate of the year 2013. In other words, the dollar outflow seems to have decreased, but the ruble one has grown ... In this case, the question of positivity in this situation hangs in the air, especially if we consider that the national currency in Russia is still the Russian ruble, and not the US dollar ...
The most interesting thing here is how Moscow skillfully works with numbers. If capital outflows are considered exclusively in dollars, then the dynamics of savings in the National Wealth Fund are in rubles, and in dollars, plus, in percentage of GDP. Ministry of Finance, publishing chart changes in the NWF content index, suggests that the fund even “grew up” in relation to GDP - by 1% of GDP for the year. At the same time, the fact that GDP itself fell by more than 3,5% in 2015 was modestly lowered.
So, you can imagine a picture of this kind of reporting: a paper is placed on the table of the president in which it is written in black and white: the outflow of capital for the year decreased almost threefold, and the level of savings in the State Fund increased by 1% of GDP ... So with Such reporting can not only boldly speak about overcoming the peak of the crisis, but also completely start dancing with joy. And here comes the rhetorical question: either the president by naivety relies only on, to put it mildly, the original reports of the Ministry of Finance and “does not dig deeper”, or puts such “support” for himself only because it is more convenient to rely on it by definition ... After all to rely on real, rather than otmanipulirovannye figures, then the same will have to explain what equivalent and objective expression of the same outflow or “inflow” in question. And if you focus on real numbers, you will have to admit that the peak of the crisis has not even been completely passed ...
On the one hand, attempts to expose the economic situation in a pink color are understandable - it seems that there is no need to allow panic, people should feel stability, be more restrained. But on the other hand, will this not contribute to lulling the public at a time when the ship named the Russian economy got a hole in the reef? After all, if there was a “reef”, then it seems that it would be better to present a real plan to eliminate the leak and to call upon the public and, most importantly, the government forces (in this case, perhaps, you can’t do without a stick) to implement this plan. Present the plan and call for its implementation, and not try to declare that the water pouring into the holds is only a reason to “temporarily” climb to the upper deck and expect that the hole in the hull will be drawn out by itself, based on their probability theory ...
When with garlic people, there are much more chances to solve the problem, because there is more constructiveness and more truth. And cries in two opposite styles from "Do not rock the boat" to "Everything is gone, it's time to get out of this country!" have never led either to constructiveness, nor to the full-fledged, and not declarative, exit of Russia from crisis situations.
The fact is that last year the amount of capital outflow from Russia amounted to more than 148 billion dollars, almost a third exceeded the average for the previous 10 years. The financial system of Russia from 2004 to 2013 year (inclusive) lost an average of 104-105 billion dollars annually, and this is more than 30 more than the amount of funds that are currently placed in the National Welfare Fund (NWF) of Russia. In other words, in the specified period of time, the treasury of Russia lost 13-14 "NWF"!
It is quite clear that if at least half of these funds remained in Russia, then we would not have to talk about any kind of overcoming of the next economic crisis. But, as they say, did not grow together - the capital of hundreds of billions annually left Russia, and therefore we have what we have ...
If one pushes oneself purely from the statistical indicators of capital outflows, then there is something positive. A threefold reduction in capital outflows compared with the previous year is quite a positive phenomenon. However, the positive here looks a little sly. After all, it’s vigorously rejoicing over the withdrawal abroad on the “black” and “gray” routes of 58 billion instead of 104-105 (or 148, as in 2014) dollars - this is from the same series that rejoice over the following: “I used to be stolen 104 pocket bills, and now only 58. ” At the same time, the whole point is that stealing out of your pockets has become less, not because thieves have become more honest, but because you don’t wander around in this pocket, for example, in 2012 or 2013 (in dollar equivalent). And there are reasons for reducing the amount of funds. They are very, very commonplace.
If at the beginning of 2014, the dollar was 33-35 rubles, today it is already more than 71 rubles. And if we take into account that the profits of those who take the money over the hill are received in rubles (if illegal enrichment can be called profit at all), then the transfer of funds into dollars will lead to 2012-2013's figures. That is, the decline in capital outflows is very likely due to the fact that the dollar has risen against the ruble. After all, if you translate the same 58 billion into rubles at the current rate, then it is about the same amount of funds (and even more), which is equivalent to the mentioned 104-105 billions of dollars at the rate of the year 2013. In other words, the dollar outflow seems to have decreased, but the ruble one has grown ... In this case, the question of positivity in this situation hangs in the air, especially if we consider that the national currency in Russia is still the Russian ruble, and not the US dollar ...
The most interesting thing here is how Moscow skillfully works with numbers. If capital outflows are considered exclusively in dollars, then the dynamics of savings in the National Wealth Fund are in rubles, and in dollars, plus, in percentage of GDP. Ministry of Finance, publishing chart changes in the NWF content index, suggests that the fund even “grew up” in relation to GDP - by 1% of GDP for the year. At the same time, the fact that GDP itself fell by more than 3,5% in 2015 was modestly lowered.
So, you can imagine a picture of this kind of reporting: a paper is placed on the table of the president in which it is written in black and white: the outflow of capital for the year decreased almost threefold, and the level of savings in the State Fund increased by 1% of GDP ... So with Such reporting can not only boldly speak about overcoming the peak of the crisis, but also completely start dancing with joy. And here comes the rhetorical question: either the president by naivety relies only on, to put it mildly, the original reports of the Ministry of Finance and “does not dig deeper”, or puts such “support” for himself only because it is more convenient to rely on it by definition ... After all to rely on real, rather than otmanipulirovannye figures, then the same will have to explain what equivalent and objective expression of the same outflow or “inflow” in question. And if you focus on real numbers, you will have to admit that the peak of the crisis has not even been completely passed ...
On the one hand, attempts to expose the economic situation in a pink color are understandable - it seems that there is no need to allow panic, people should feel stability, be more restrained. But on the other hand, will this not contribute to lulling the public at a time when the ship named the Russian economy got a hole in the reef? After all, if there was a “reef”, then it seems that it would be better to present a real plan to eliminate the leak and to call upon the public and, most importantly, the government forces (in this case, perhaps, you can’t do without a stick) to implement this plan. Present the plan and call for its implementation, and not try to declare that the water pouring into the holds is only a reason to “temporarily” climb to the upper deck and expect that the hole in the hull will be drawn out by itself, based on their probability theory ...
When with garlic people, there are much more chances to solve the problem, because there is more constructiveness and more truth. And cries in two opposite styles from "Do not rock the boat" to "Everything is gone, it's time to get out of this country!" have never led either to constructiveness, nor to the full-fledged, and not declarative, exit of Russia from crisis situations.
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