Speaking today about Donbass, we mean something homogeneous and rather integral. However, this is not the case. Like any education, Donbass is essentially heterogeneous. I use the term "Donbass" because the territorial essence of the DNI or the LC is not important here. The problems are the same.
Three engineers became my interlocutors. Two work (if I may say so) in factories, the third - in the mining industry. Moreover, the miner and the metalworker managed to make war last year. So blame them for some "ukrosty" language does not turn. And judge for yourself, no politics, pure economics.
The conclusion that the interlocutors actually “threw out” me was stunned even at the first moment.
Donbas without Ukraine can not survive.
Somewhat flustered, I did not immediately begin to object (and that was the objection), because I came to the following arguments.
1. Coal industry.
Here everything is more or less even, that is, coal is where and to whom to mine. But the question of sales remains open. By a political decision, Donbass does not send more coal to Ukraine, which, by the way, is quite welcome by residents. Nevertheless, this is a matter of prime importance, because the fact that in Ukraine this winter will freeze slightly will not feed the miners.
The population of the non-gasified areas of Donbass (and not gasified around 60%), using coal, has never bought it from the state. This way the devil knows since what times. Why buy for 300 uah, if you can buy for 100? For those who exploit the cops? And today the situation has not changed a single gram.
Yes, some of the coal goes to power plants. The rest - the complete lack of perspective. And in this respect no one even looks at Russia, for there their coal ... in bulk.
Donbass anthracite is very well processed into coke. Accordingly, it is possible to provide their enterprises for work. And here begins the point 2.
2. Steelmaking industry.
Foundry in the Donbass know for a long time. Even the ancient ukry dug the sea with shovels, iron or bronze for which they made in the Donbass.
But today, most of the casters are also standing.
The reason is simple: no raw materials. Yes, coke for smelting at least heaps. But more ore is required. Ore no. The economic blockade of the Donbass, which had begun by Ukraine, cut even those deliveries that went according to “agreements” and “schemes”.
Initially, the enterprises of Donbass were focused on the iron ore of the Krivoy Rog basin (Kryvbas) and, accordingly, to date, they turned out to be simply cut off.
Further. Ore is half an orange. Steel can not be smelted without fluxes. Centers for the production of fluxes for metallurgy - Nikopol and Zaporozhye. And here, too, everything is clear.
Donbass industry is not worth it because of the destruction or not wanting to work. On the contrary, there are enough people. Donbass can be reproached with many oddities, but to say that only lazy people live there, dreaming of even sitting on a perch with a parallel use of a humanitarian stew - this needs to be highly Ukrainianized. Works there want and can work.
The industrial army of Donbass is defeated not because there is no fighting spirit. And because of the lack of ammunition and shells.
But even if, hypothetically, to break through this blockade in some place, the next point immediately arises.
Logistics is the cornerstone of any industry. Bringing raw materials and taking products is a significant process, this is understandable.
In today's realities of Donbass, there is no logistics. Difficulties with the delivery of raw materials have already been described, problems with the export of finished products ahead.
To begin with, in the industry such as metallurgy, motor transport is not considered at all. Not those volumes, not that loading capacity. Accordingly - either the railway or the sea route.
Railways in the Donbass do not actually function, just keep silent about the sea routes. They stayed where? That's right, in Mariupol. It seems that last year’s failed capture of Mariupol could theoretically solve this problem, but only theoretically.
In fact, the capture of Mariupol almost nothing would have brought to the cash office of Donbass. Moreover, Ukrainian Mariupol, oddly enough, brings something.
The fact is that Ukraine exports a lot of metal to the countries of Asia and Turkey. And in manganese and nickel in general in the lead. But. This Ukraine exports Ukrainian goods. It is not a secret that export-import operations are executed in accordance with international norms and requirements. Neither the DNR nor the LNR are included in the TN VED system, as there are none.
That is, to sell the products of Donbass factories in the same China or Thailand, an international status is needed, which, alas, no. Or, at least, the recognition of the same DNI or LC Thailand. And why Thailand, I ask, is this hemorrhoids, if it buys everything pretty well in Ukraine?
That is why Akhmetov's "schemes" work. And the metal, made with great difficulty in the Donbass, leaves the Ukrainian Mariupol according to the documents of Ukraine, as produced in Ukrainian enterprises. Where does the money go? That's right, to Kiev. Return is the same as humanitarian aid from Akhmetov ... a penny, compared to what he has. Well, Kiev is not mad.
The situation is unpleasant. On the one hand, the Donbass industry is being killed by the Kiev junta with the help of the blockade, on the other hand, Akhmetov is being plundered. But from Akhmetov at least something yes falls. And there is no lumen in perspective.
For the sake of experiment, my interlocutors threw a scheme of interaction with Russia.
Yes, it is possible to provide the enterprises of Donbass with ore from the KMA. Questions only delivery in volumes necessary to ensure the normal operation of the plants.
Yes, it is possible to provide fluxes and everything you need to melt.
Yes, it is possible to take everything to Russia by the same railway.
And how much will it cost in the end? The question is even somewhat tactless. It is clear that the price will be exorbitant, if we proceed from transportation costs. Even if this metal is needed, for example, for the ship repair enterprises of the Crimea. It is necessary to drag up to the only Russian cargo port on the Black Sea. Before Novorossiysk ...
Dead end? Maybe.
Another question that no one really was looking for a way out of this impasse. And meanwhile, the enterprises stop, and the qualified personnel acquired over the years begins to look for another life. Not easy and beautiful, but just life.
I already gave out statistics that the war in the Donbass is occupied by 1 people from 50. One of 50 doesn’t bother much about tomorrow afternoon. And the rest? The rest, alas, forced.
Patriotism and the desire to wait for a brighter future are good when you live today and not survive. Yes, it's nice when not bombed, when every day does not bring regular shelling. But this is not life. This is just survival.
Tomorrow’s day brings no prospects, in the opinion of my interlocutors.
“We go to work like a war. Last year, we defended us against ukrov, in this we again defend ourselves, but from those who want to take the equipment for scrap,” one of the interlocutors told me so.
“We are all here as one for the republic. But we understand that today we don’t need a republic at all. There’s no way for us to provide materials and work. There’s no way to sell the result of our work and provide us materially. Why then are we here?”
“Donbass cannot survive without Ukraine. At one time, we were too much tied up in such a knot that we couldn’t bend it to anyone. Ukraine needs us, and Ukraine needs us. This is the alignment. We need to somehow agree then save. "
Opinion, contrary to what we used to see and hear from there. But the opinion is already lived and confident people. An opinion that is impossible not to heed. This is not a new separatism wishing to return the Donbass in the arms of Ukraine. This is the opinion of people who can, and most importantly, want their work to benefit. No matter who, DNI, LC, New Russia, Donbas.
Those wishing to fish and not receive it as an aid.