Military Review

Dead season over the whole planet: the world economy is plunging into stagnation

108
Dead season over the whole planet: the world economy is plunging into stagnation



How I “love” all these home-grown “experts” and “analysts” who do not own any professional tools, but they will take some arbitrary parameter and draw global conclusions on its basis and create conspiracy theories.

A vivid example is the decline in oil prices over the past two years. Some say that this is a conspiracy of the United States and Saudi Arabia to harm Russia, others write that this is an attempt by the Saudis to bring down the shale oil market in the United States. In fact, everything is much more complicated and easier at the same time.

Take the annual chart of changes in the price of Brent crude oil.



On this chart, we can see a decrease in the price of oil during the year from almost 80 dollars per barrel to 38 dollars per barrel. Yes, this leads to a shortfall in foreign exchange earnings by Russian oil companies and the state budget (as well as to similar losses for Venezuelans, Norwegians and the Saudis). Yes, it leads to the ruin of many American companies engaged in shale oil. But these are not the reasons for this decline, but the consequences.

Plus, the Saudis are increasing production and lower prices, and consumption growth does not occur, with the result that they simply grow reserves in storage, which have already broken all records. Unfortunately, I do not have data on the boundary values, how much the Saudi storages are calculated, so it is impossible to judge the degree of their fullness when overflow may occur.

But this is secondary. The main thing why the price of oil is declining is the demand. And the demand for energy falls due to the general stagnation of the global economy.

Oil prices are falling, because freight volumes are falling. And the volume of freight, in particular, illustrates the second Dow Jones index, transport, which many economists consider to be the most accurate indicator of economic activity in the United States. For other countries, this is also true.

By the way, this perfectly illustrates an example of imbecile Yatsenyuk, who recently boasted that they managed to reduce the consumption of natural gas in Ukraine. Naturally, if the two-year GDP falls by more than two times, then the gas consumption decreases. But to rejoice here is really nothing.

Do you want more evidence that this is not the result of a conspiracy, but the consequences of a severe global crisis, which Western mainstream media refuse to voice? “Do you want songs? I have them! ”

Below are a few charts from the London LME non-ferrous metals exchange.

Aluminum



Copper



Lead



Nickel



Lead



Zinc



As you can see, all these charts for the last year in the dynamics almost repeat the chart of the price of oil. The price of aluminum dropped from about 2.100 to 1.500, to copper from 7.000 to 4.600, to lead from 2.000 to 1.700, to nickel from 18.400 to 8.600, to tin from 20.400 to 14.600, to zinc from 2.200 to 1.500 dollars per ton.

For some metals, the price drop is even greater than for oil. And if we look at the dynamics in two years, then the fall almost everywhere is even more significant. Who dumping someone for these positions? The Saudis, by the way, do not trade any of this.

Lower prices for non-ferrous metals - the consequences of lower demand for them. And the decline in demand for non-ferrous metals is, above all, an indirect indication of a decline in production in the most high-tech industries - electronics, aircraft manufacturing, and so on.

We can almost see a similar picture from the dynamics of steel prices.



For the year, the price of steel fell two and a half times, from 500 to 210 dollars per ton (with the lower peak of $ 150 per ton). At the same time, steel mills around the world - including in the EU, in China, in India and other countries - are suffering billions of dollars in losses. Part of the plants in general is stopped (and even more on the verge of stopping), because there is no demand.

The world economy is in the silent majority of the media, but no less a real recession. And the fact that this is not always displayed on the stock markets, speaks only about their speculative nature and deep inadequacy of the ongoing processes.

Both the economists and other economists have already written quite a lot about the reasons for the unfolding crisis, so I will not dwell on them in this review. And no conspiracy theories need to be attributed to what is explained by quite objective reasons and economic laws. Moreover, those who could have plotted some kind of conspiracy would very much like to avoid this crisis (because it beats up on itself, on the existing world-system), but cannot.

For example, in the US, the vast majority of industries show a significant decline. Only intangible murkiness of the entertainment industry is held (during the Great Depression, entertainment also showed record profits). At the same time, the statistics are clearly falsified, and the stock markets are held solely by constant injections of cash from the Fed.

Against this background, the Russian economy is doing very well. Even if there are sinking in places, then the key industries (food, energy and weapons are paramount for survival), and in general, everything is much better than it could be in current circumstances. And those liberal economists who dare criticize something forget to compare Russian figures with the realities of other countries.

From the point of view of populism and ambitions, it is always more profitable to criticize the government than to praise. But in the current circumstances, the Russian government is objectively acting very competently. Yes, you can "file the file." Yes, you can, for example, implement Glazyev’s proposals more quickly. Yes, you can have a lot more.

However, “The best is the enemy of the good,” and perfectionism leads to a broken trough (as can be easily seen from the example of the former Ukraine). Therefore, be able to appreciate what is, and do not chase the mirages.

And note that the global crisis is just entering its main phase. So fasten your seat belts and stay calm - turbulence is possible during the flight. Smile and wave.
Author:
Originator:
http://jpgazeta.ru/nad-vsey-planetoy-myortvyiy-sezon-mirovaya-ekonomika-pogruzhaetsya-v-puchinu-stagnatsii/
108 comments
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  1. GUKTU
    GUKTU 16 December 2015 09: 56 New
    -4
    Here is an example of the government’s "literacy" http://ok.ru/dk?cmd=logExternal&st._aid=Conversations_Openlink&st.name=externalL
    inkRedirect&st.link=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.rambler.ru%2Fhead%2F32233684%2F
    1. Vend
      Vend 16 December 2015 09: 59 New
      25
      From the point of view of populism and ambition, criticizing the government is always more beneficial than praising.
      That's not in the eyebrow, but in the eye. There is nothing to add to the above.
      1. jjj
        jjj 16 December 2015 10: 09 New
        30
        I read this material a couple of days ago. I was amazed at how the fall graphs for non-ferrous metals and oil correlate. I agree with the author that this is indeed a global crisis. What is even more interesting, the dollar and the euro again rose fabulously, but people do not run to the shops to buy everything in a row. And one more curious thing related to the visit of Lukashenko. It was announced that the commodity circulation between the countries in rubles increased significantly, and if counted in dollars, it fell. Western agencies just think in dollars. And at us 80 percent of trade goes in our currencies
        1. Andrey Yuryevich
          Andrey Yuryevich 16 December 2015 10: 21 New
          +3
          Quote: jjj
          I was amazed at how the fall graphs for non-ferrous metals and oil correlate.

          the same garbage ...! yes
        2. alicante11
          alicante11 16 December 2015 12: 17 New
          +5
          What is even more interesting, the dollar and the euro again rose fabulously, but people do not run to the shops to buy everything in a row.


          Probably not at all. In principle, a good option was to get stash from the population and launch them into the economy. At the same time, stale goods were lowered.
        3. My doctor
          My doctor 16 December 2015 12: 19 New
          +1
          Quote: jjj
          I agree with the author that this is indeed a global crisis.

          And I do not agree with the author. The decline in prices is a consequence of the STRENGTH of the dollar and surplus. I’ll clarify the expectations for growth in metal consumption by manufacturers increasing production in order to fill an increasing part with their goods, but if there are many manufacturers and everyone expects to master the remaining part, then overproduction is obtained. Since the graphics in scrap do, I will write in words. GROWTH of aluminum consumption in the world is expected at the end of 2015 by 5% as in previous years, world copper consumption will grow by 2015% at the end of 3, world zinc markets were also surplus growth with the growth of refined lead output by 6%, consumption growth increased by 1% etc. At the same time, there are positions (steel and stainless steel, respectively, and its main elements) in which there was a drop in demand due to the transition through a peak of growth which was based on the rapid economic development of China.
          Do not forget about the increasing pressure on prices associated with the strengthening of the main world currency.
          And to be honest, I myself do not agree 100% with what I wrote (well, I don’t like the growth of the dollar and at least kill everything), but nevertheless I tried to give an alternative.
          1. EFA
            EFA 16 December 2015 13: 12 New
            +1
            I have to argue with you, just think not about global scales, but about the banal economy of an enterprise that, for example, extracts / processes ore to copper.
            It is highly doubtful that with continued low copper prices, this enterprise will spend its monetary resources on production and “pent-up demand,” and given the extremely high debt load on such enterprises, this becomes completely meaningless. Since it calls into question the very continued existence of this enterprise.

            And last, the difference between the volumes of production and consumption of copper, has been increasing year by year since 2006.
            1. My doctor
              My doctor 17 December 2015 12: 54 New
              0
              Quote: EFA
              It is highly doubtful that with continued low copper prices, this enterprise will spend its monetary resources on production and “pent-up demand,” and given the extremely high debt level of such enterprises, this becomes completely meaningless.

              Deferred demand - demand for a particular type consumer goods, which for some reason was temporarily postponed, but then upon the occurrence of optimal conditions for the purchase will be or will be satisfied. So your term “deferred demand", although from a textbook on economics, but not from that chapter laughing
              Quote: EFA
              And last, the difference between the volumes of production and consumption of copper, has been increasing year by year since 2006.

              I do not believe that a person who knows what “deferred demand" is will not dig deeper and will not be interested in the ratio of production growth and copper demand in recent years. Now in the copper market surplus associated with a 1% increase in copper production compared to the previous year and this, together with a decrease in prices, will lead to a decrease in production in 2016, after which a shortfall should be expected next year. And also in this, as in other metal markets, China is the main consumer. For example, China accounts for up to 40% of copper demand.
          2. gladcu2
            gladcu2 16 December 2015 18: 06 New
            +2
            My doctor

            The crisis of capitalism lies in the fact that money supply is transferred from the industrial sector to the financial one. Through bank interest and speculative operations on the exchange. Therefore, there is a shortage of money among consumers and a halt in production. Or overproduction if you want. All the same, no one can buy anything, since the money supply has settled in banks, and the bank is not a consumer.

            Available explained?

            And the problem is ideology.
            Since criminal fraudulent in terms of logic, banking schemes have received support and excuse. States called to monitor and control the banking sector received puppet governments.

            That's the whole parsley. We are waiting for the usual solution to the problem. 3 world with 300 million victims of the planet’s population. Moreover, in countries with high economic potential. Poor countries make no sense.
            1. My doctor
              My doctor 17 December 2015 13: 06 New
              0
              Quote: gladcu2
              The crisis of capitalism lies in the fact that money supply is transferred from the industrial sector to the financial one. Through bank interest and speculative operations on the exchange. Therefore, there is a shortage of money among consumers and a halt in production. Or overproduction if you want. All the same, no one can buy anything, since the money supply has settled in banks, and the bank is not a consumer.

              Available explained?

              And the problem is ideology.

              Yes, I do not argue and do not intend to argue with your ideology.
              I just wrote that the dynamics of prices on exchanges, in our case, is not an indicator of a decrease in demand for metal. Despite falling prices, there has been an increase in both the production and consumption of certain metals. And the point.
        4. lex locis
          lex locis 16 December 2015 13: 25 New
          +3
          "So fasten your seat belts and keep calm - turbulence is possible during the flight. We smile and wave."

          Nothing to add...
        5. kazachyok69
          kazachyok69 16 December 2015 14: 07 New
          +1
          it’s still curious, the dollar and the euro again rose fabulously, but people do not run to the shops to buy everything.

          And you do not find that "they are not buying up everything" because there is NO MONEY! In fact, more than 90% of Russians actually have no savings! Reducing the RFP, actually raising the price by 2 times, problems with jobs (which are NOT!) ... So you don’t “run” .....
          1. gladcu2
            gladcu2 16 December 2015 18: 28 New
            0
            kkazachyek69

            If you trust the news, then in Russia the economy is balanced. The amount of money in the banking sector corresponds to the amount invested in industry, in projects present and even future ones.

            Since the money supply went into development projects, production of group A (machine tools and equipment), a cash shortage in the social sphere is manifested.

            Something like this. But knowing this, life will not stop easier. Sorry.
        6. atalef
          atalef 16 December 2015 18: 55 New
          -1
          Quote: jjj
          I read this material a couple of days ago. I was amazed at how the fall graphs for non-ferrous metals and oil correlate. I agree with the author that this is really a global crisis

          If today the Fed of America raises the discount rate - it will be the clearest signal to the world - In the US, the crisis has ended and the time for cheap money has stopped
          Quote: jjj
          What is more interesting, the dollar and the euro again fabulously rose

          That ruble fell
          Quote: jjj
          but people don’t run to the shops to buy everything

          so there’s not much money left
          Quote: jjj
          And one more curious thing related to the visit of Lukashenko. It was announced that the commodity circulation between the countries in rubles increased significantly, and if counted in dollars, it fell.

          Yes, no need to explain - why
          Quote: jjj
          Western agencies just think in dollars. And we have 80 percent of the trade in our currencies.

          you can talk about anything. but. all the same, the dollar - let's put it this way * for today, 0 is some constant. what am I talking about - if the volume of trade in dollars has fallen - that means. what exactly less sell. maybe what is the point in counting in rubles. when does it fall freely?
          If the cost of a buck will cost 100 rubles, this does not mean. that for a dollar you buy 2 times more - this means that for a ruble. You will buy 2 times less, why --- since prices will rise the same.
      2. INVESTOR
        INVESTOR 16 December 2015 10: 23 New
        17
        And what is wrong with the graphs? Metals and oil are traded for dollars, more precisely against the US dollar, from another point of view it can be said that the dollar rose and not metals fell with oil, by the way, the usd index is at multi-year highs, and after raising the FRS rate it will trample down. The point of all this movement is to buy up cheap assets around the world for expensive dollars. Author look wider.
        1. Terner38
          Terner38 16 December 2015 11: 02 New
          +7
          I fully agree with INVESTOR. Prices are artificially lowered by a narrow group of people (everyone knows the names). To this end, instruments under their control (exchanges) were created in order to buy resources for nothing. The fall in demand for resources is a very controversial issue.
          1. gladcu2
            gladcu2 16 December 2015 18: 42 New
            -1
            Terner38

            And what's the point of these people creating problems? Can you find an explanation?

            At least try to think like those people with unlimited possibilities?

            The question is why?
          2. The comment was deleted.
          3. atalef
            atalef 17 December 2015 12: 59 New
            0
            Quote: Terner38
            I fully agree with INVESTOR. Prices are artificially lowered by a narrow group of people (everyone knows the names).

            And when prices were many times higher - where was this group of people?

            Quote: Terner38
            The fall in demand for resources is a very controversial issue.

            A rise in prices. what question raises?
        2. alicante11
          alicante11 16 December 2015 12: 18 New
          -1
          from another point of view it can be said that this dollar has grown


          This is HOW can cut paper grow?
        3. EFA
          EFA 16 December 2015 13: 23 New
          0
          In general, yes, but what do you mean by the term "assets"?
          If these are just exchange-traded assets, then the point of buying them up in the stock market is to buy for cheap, which would then be sold with a positive delta.

          And if the dollar first became expensive, and then cheaper, then what will change? Yes, prices for "assets" in dollars may jump, and one would think that by selling expensive assets you can earn a lot of money (quantitatively), but there’s no benefit from selling expensive assets for cheap dollars, because the purchasing power of the dollar also became lower. You will just have a lot of cheap money for which you can’t buy more than you sold.
          1. gladcu2
            gladcu2 16 December 2015 19: 22 New
            0
            EFA

            The exchange in speculative operations has the function of pumping money from the consumer’s pocket * assets *.

            No money, no opportunity. An imbalance leads to a crisis. The solution to the crisis is the zeroing of debts. Bankruptcy. Or war.
      3. Skif83
        Skif83 16 December 2015 11: 34 New
        +1
        Duck, if you do not criticize GDP, the Twitter government will generally get stuck with impunity.
        The economy exists not only to maintain the defense industry, there are still a bunch of industries that are objectively in a deep duplex ...
        Or is the Twitter government no longer looking at the IMF, or has it already untied the ruble exchange rate from green presidents?
        Or do people live under communism?
        Do not hell their iron wool, it's time to take a whip in your hands!
        1. Diana Ilyina
          Diana Ilyina 16 December 2015 11: 47 New
          +7
          Quote: Skif83
          Duck, if you do not criticize GDP, the Twitter government will generally get stuck with impunity.


          Do not tell my slippers, they are your criticism, to one place, you yourself know what!

          Quote: Skif83
          The economy exists not only to maintain the defense industry, there are still a bunch of industries that are objectively in a deep duplex ...


          This is a global trend! Take an interest in falling demand for steel in China and how many steel production capacities the Chinese have already eliminated! Very informative!

          Quote: Skif83
          Or do people live under communism?


          Even in the USSR, the people did not live under communism, what do you want from capitalism, and even with the face of our liberals and bureaucrats ?!
    2. Andrey Yuryevich
      Andrey Yuryevich 16 December 2015 10: 20 New
      +1
      As you can see, all these graphs over the past year in dynamics almost repeat the graph of oil prices. The price of aluminum fell from about 2.100 to 1.500,
      belay Come on...!!! and what the hell, aluminum in pigs, already under 80 !!! ??? per ton costs? (Yesterday, we bought the last batch at the enterprise, at KUMZ) and a year ago, at 000-15 thousand cheaper ??? belay"comb" dude ... "comb" !!!
      1. gray smeet
        gray smeet 16 December 2015 10: 30 New
        +3
        Inside Russia, metal has risen in price (!) - if you look at world charts - this is a paradox, but you can’t argue against facts.
        1. Shick
          Shick 16 December 2015 11: 09 New
          14
          paradox?)))
          we have import substitution at such a pace at all rates) that’s true bad luck the grain produced in our “gardens” is more expensive than the Canadian one, which must be dragged over many thousand kilometers)
          we now have an expression:
          dollar rose prices rose
          the dollar fell, not a single price drop did not lower
          then it’s not in dollars but in bastards)
        2. Andrea
          Andrea 16 December 2015 11: 11 New
          +5
          There are no paradoxes for the Lord. No matter how much we flutter, but so far we are heavily dependent on the dollar. The prices of raw materials are falling, but the ruble is falling, I don’t want to bother, but if you want, you can calculate how much Percentage inflates the life jacket of companies.
        3. GELEZNII_KAPUT
          GELEZNII_KAPUT 16 December 2015 14: 14 New
          0
          Quote: gray smeet
          Inside Russia, metal has risen in price (!) - if you look at world charts - this is a paradox, but you can’t argue against facts.

          This is not a paradox, the volumes have fallen, and the costs of maintaining the enterprise have not fallen much, and this is included in the price calculation. hi
        4. gladcu2
          gladcu2 16 December 2015 19: 32 New
          0
          gray smeet

          In a simple, without determining the mechanism of the exchange system.

          Russia is integrated into the global economy. So the dollar value of a ton of aluminum is the price in the world market. And the price of aluminum on the world exchange has a speculative component. The price of the last owner of this ton is already high, it's like a banking pyramid. This ton has already been wrapped in circulation several times. The consumer cannot sell the latter, since consumers in the mortgaged project have no money on the balance sheet. Stalemate situation.

          Means what? The dollar in rubles should fall in value. If it does not fall, then why? Because either the Bank of Russia artificially holds, or the demand for aluminum is low.
      2. Diana Ilyina
        Diana Ilyina 16 December 2015 11: 33 New
        11
        Quote: Andrew Y.
        Come on...!!! and what the hell, aluminum in pigs, already under 80 !!! ??? per ton costs? (Yesterday, we bought the last batch at the enterprise, at KUMZ) and a year ago, at 000-15 thousand cheaper ??? belay"comb" dude ... "comb" !!!


        This is where you found such a freebie for 80 rubles / ton ?! I’ve just done the calculation of the ingot by December, the primary A000 (pig) = 7 102 rubles / ton without VAT! But then again, these are prices on the domestic market, the price on the London Stock Exchange is really falling, I just clarified with businessmen!

        You do not confuse prices with us and the London Stock Exchange! The price of oil is falling everywhere, and the prices of fuel and lubricants are rising everywhere, as well as with aluminum, I tell you as an economist!
        1. Andrea
          Andrea 16 December 2015 11: 54 New
          0
          Diana Ilyina
          What if they took A3? what smile
          1. Diana Ilyina
            Diana Ilyina 16 December 2015 12: 33 New
            +7
            Quote: Andrea
            Diana Ilyina
            What if they took A3? what smile


            I appreciate your humor! I heard about alloys A7, A8, A85, A95, A97, A99, A999, I hear about A3 for the first time! request
            1. Andrea
              Andrea 16 December 2015 15: 03 New
              0
              Diana Ilyina
              In addition to the above, there are: A0, A3, A5, A6 are low-quality brands. hiThe lower the number, the lower the quality.
        2. kazachyok69
          kazachyok69 16 December 2015 18: 32 New
          -1
          You do not confuse prices with us and the London Stock Exchange! The price of oil is falling everywhere, and the prices of fuels and lubricants are rising everywhere, as with aluminum, I tell you as an economist

          Sorry, how are we different from London? Do we live in a closed system? The price in dollars is falling ... but ... despite the fact that the ruble fell almost 2 times against the dollar, an increase in prices for aluminum or oil inside the country is inevitable ...
          well, or close ... do not ship anything abroad ... and eat only your own))) Can this be?
      3. Blackmokona
        Blackmokona 16 December 2015 11: 45 New
        +1
        Oil is falling, gas is rising.
        Aluminum is falling, aluminum is growing.
        It’s just Russia wink
        1. Diana Ilyina
          Diana Ilyina 16 December 2015 11: 52 New
          +7
          Quote: BlackMokona
          It’s just Russia wink


          What is wrong in America ?!

          Tell me what’s wrong, I’ll laugh in your face! It’s just that you haven’t noticed this yet because you are used to living by robbery of other countries and peoples! But looting is becoming harder and soon you will feel for yourself what it means to live at your own expense, and not at the expense of other nations!

          P.S. You have seen the debt of America or remind you!
          1. kazachyok69
            kazachyok69 16 December 2015 18: 36 New
            -2
            P.S. You have seen the debt of America or remind you!

            Remind me! Only not all debt but external ....
            And about the robbery ..... Germany also robs everyone? Does France rob? Now tell us how they work for us for 8-9-10 tr. people???? This is normal? Is it a social state?
            By the way, before the robberies of America I don’t care ...... but the fact that all taxes are paid at the place of registration of enterprises in Moscow and at the places where these enterprises are located, they pay only a penniless salary and everything ... leads to the idea that Russia and the people are by no means robbing America!
          2. Blackmokona
            Blackmokona 17 December 2015 10: 38 New
            +1
            And I'm writing from Russia, this flag is buggy as never before. Ask admins to break through my IP, from which the post was written to which you replied. And voila, he is Russian. Why do you think the program is his American, I have no idea.
            And gasoline in the USA is falling in price. You can google, all sources talk about it.
            1. Blackmokona
              Blackmokona 17 December 2015 10: 41 New
              0
              And I understood what the joke is, chrome drives TopVar through a proxy, with the included traffic saving, and 2IP determines correctly, despite the mode.
              google-proxy-66-102-9-43.google.com
    3. st25310
      st25310 16 December 2015 10: 24 New
      0
      I read excitedly! (he would have to write novels), the prices of raw materials fell, but he still did not understand why goods were becoming more expensive ...
      1. st25310
        st25310 16 December 2015 11: 01 New
        0
        Citizen zaminusovamsami! Can you explain to me why goods are becoming more expensive?
      2. Vend
        Vend 16 December 2015 11: 46 New
        0
        Quote: st25310
        I read excitedly! (he would have to write novels), the prices of raw materials fell, but he still did not understand why goods were becoming more expensive ...

        What is incomprehensible here? The prices are set not by the state, but by retailers, and they do not want to reduce profits. The salary will also depend on whether prices remain at the same level or increase. In a bona fide entrepreneur, the salary of employees remains at the same level and for this they raise the price of the goods. For a non-conscientious person, the price of goods increases and the salary of employees decreases, because the entrepreneur wants to continue to live on the same scale. If the price remains the same, then you will have to reduce salaries, lay off employees, and so on. Here everything rests on the decency of the entrepreneur and his thirst for profit. Well, we have not yet reached state regulation of prices, although in Western countries this is a known practice.
      3. alicante11
        alicante11 16 December 2015 12: 24 New
        +1
        commodity prices fell, but did not understand why goods are getting more expensive ...


        Because in a monopolistic economy, market mechanisms do not work. If your goods are still bought, then is it worth lowering prices when raw material prices fall? Better get more profit.
  2. marlin1203
    marlin1203 16 December 2015 09: 57 New
    +8
    We are all dying !!! belay
    1. alex-s
      alex-s 16 December 2015 10: 05 New
      +9
      Anyway! laughing
      1. Andrey Yuryevich
        Andrey Yuryevich 16 December 2015 10: 21 New
        +5
        without a doubt...
    2. sisa29
      sisa29 16 December 2015 10: 13 New
      11
      Comrad, we survived 90 and friendship with America !!! and you are going to die ....
    3. EvgNik
      EvgNik 16 December 2015 10: 19 New
      +6
      Quote: marlin1203
      We are all dying !!!

      Mandatory. When the time comes. Not earlier. Although someone can live a little longer if he is not very nervous.
      1. lex locis
        lex locis 16 December 2015 13: 32 New
        0
        So fasten your seat belts and keep calm - turbulence is possible during the flight. Smile and wave.
    4. kapitan92
      kapitan92 16 December 2015 10: 57 New
      +7
      Bulk firewood, oil from the tap, gas from all the cracks, a lot of coal, however!
      In Russia, two troubles: fools and roads, I almost forgot, there is a third trouble-initiative fools. Get rid of the latter and live like in a fairy tale. wassat
    5. lex locis
      lex locis 16 December 2015 13: 31 New
      0
      "So fasten your seat belts and keep calm - turbulence is possible during the flight. We smile and wave."
  3. NordUral
    NordUral 16 December 2015 09: 57 New
    14
    Yeah, pleased with the graphics. Russia is the time to return its property (state) and restore its industrial economy, shutting up financial speculators in a dark corner.
    1. :SCYTHIAN:
      :SCYTHIAN: 16 December 2015 10: 19 New
      -3
      Sorry, but what to restore, what shisha? We just started to understand with the military-industrial complex, and that is not enough everywhere! So now it’s not time for fat - I would be alive!
      1. Andrea
        Andrea 16 December 2015 11: 31 New
        0
        As practice has shown, state ownership is not a panacea. (Well, most state managers are not effective), but tight control and state regulation has the right to life, but here the living environment is for corruption.
        If you want to do nothing, don’t study and live like an oligarch, go to state control bodies. laughing
    2. Wolverine
      Wolverine 16 December 2015 11: 59 New
      +1
      I had a dream at night exactly the same, read the post and was surprised, such a coincidence ... I think we will be supported in this by 80 percent of workers, well, fly, how I miss the USSR! drinks
  4. Nevsky_ZU
    Nevsky_ZU 16 December 2015 09: 58 New
    +6
    A simple guy from Vinnitsa tells us about simple things. I do not believe!! On Ekho Moskvy, they will tell us that the Americans are making a check and mate, Dorenko will tell us: "They wrote letters to me .. with the Americans!" And then the graphics, trends ... boring. El Murid, or whatever he is, writes about a cartel arrangement ... surrender, we will not win this poker. yes
  5. Yellow white
    Yellow white 16 December 2015 10: 00 New
    11
    This is a no brainer that everything is just beginning ...
    To do what???
    Simple layman!
    As a mid-level manager, I can already see that purchasing power is decreasing day by day, there are no people in stores ... not because of a lack of goods, but because there is no money or they were hidden for a rainy day ... sales fall ... dumping do not dumping, you still get .... hi
    1. jjj
      jjj 16 December 2015 10: 16 New
      12
      Two days ago, a regular meeting was held at VGTRK near Soloviev. One participant said that he had just returned from Severodvinsk. There, shipyards are cutting salaries. Prices for everything have risen dramatically. The speaker was immediately cut short by the host, saying that this was a topic for another conversation.
      But the whole piquancy of the situation is that the money for the construction of new boats is transferred in advance. By the way, "Emperor Alexander III" pr. 955 will be laid on December 18
    2. S-kerrigan
      S-kerrigan 16 December 2015 10: 34 New
      +4
      On the face of the transition to a new tech-way. I am from IT. And the worst. One that changes people to programs. An example of my activity: over the past two years, about two dozen employees were left without work. Because my component (or rather the complex) was able to replace the work of people completely. We are talking about complex engineering areas and working with data from people. As a result, a couple of companies only began to live better. They now have extra fat (due to the considerable salary of those who previously worked). I feel good. But two dozen specialists now feel bad. And this is just the beginning.

      How to deal with this is a good question.

      PS I’ll add in advance - work has begun on the development of computer vision systems for a new stage. In order to replace truckers. So far, a very narrow group serves as a "battle check" several mining trucks.
    3. gray smeet
      gray smeet 16 December 2015 10: 34 New
      +1
      Sales volumes are really falling. There is no money in the country. The consumer needs the product, but he has no money!
  6. Donfrog
    Donfrog 16 December 2015 10: 01 New
    +3
    A much more interesting conspiracy theory. And much more informative.
    1. EvgNik
      EvgNik 16 December 2015 10: 25 New
      +3
      Quote: DonFrog
      A much more interesting conspiracy theory. And much more informative

      Naturally interesting. In fiction books and Hollywood films. But in life everything is a little different.
  7. A-Sim
    A-Sim 16 December 2015 10: 04 New
    11
    With this picture of recession, we do not forget about the export of capital from Russia, "inflation targeting", and raising the refinancing rate. The government apparently has its own survival plan. Not of an economic nature - they hope for a miracle, probably.
  8. dchegrinec
    dchegrinec 16 December 2015 10: 04 New
    +3
    You need to learn how to calmly relate to different statements! These people do not go anywhere, but simply express an opinion. You can not read, but after reading go on without clinging. Perhaps we got to the second stage of the global financial problem, who knows ..
  9. V.ic
    V.ic 16 December 2015 10: 12 New
    +1
    The meaning of the article: "I was not alone in the field somersaulting, not only me in the wind .... blew ...". On the other hand, there are a lot of signs from our sworn "partners" to unleash a military conflict with the Russian Federation, to "stop" their public debt. I minus this article.
  10. :SCYTHIAN:
    :SCYTHIAN: 16 December 2015 10: 15 New
    +3
    These articles are needed. Everything is clear, everything is the case.
  11. Gardamir
    Gardamir 16 December 2015 10: 20 New
    +5
    Therefore, be able to appreciate what is, and do not chase mirages.
    So why did the Soviet Union break? It would be the only stable economy.
    1. Albert1988
      Albert1988 16 December 2015 12: 45 New
      +2
      Quote: Gardamir
      So why did the Soviet Union break? It would be the only stable economy.

      And there’s such a saying, an old Russian saying: “What we have - we don’t keep, we lost by crying ...”
  12. guzik007
    guzik007 16 December 2015 10: 22 New
    +7
    or maybe this is the logical result of the vicious development of the world economy, an economy tied to the desire to continuously increase capital through an endless expansion of production? The depravity of this path will inevitably lead to the depletion of natural resources in the next hundred and one hundred and fifty years. and the inevitable slide to primitive survival.
    maybe it’s time for us, earthlings, to roll up our lips and live more modestly — walk more on foot, eat more modestly - dress up ... Holy naivety! No, we’ll continue to persuade and persuade, like, we’re about to overcome it, we’ll become richer, we will report on increased production and so on.
    Poor science fiction writer Efremov is probably turning over in his grave, looking at what descendants have put together for society.
    Nothing has changed under the moon for 10 thousand years, one thirst for profit, veiled by beautiful words and other demagogic husk.
  13. PPD
    PPD 16 December 2015 10: 22 New
    +2
    But the United States and the EU, imposing sanctions, think that it will carry? They will not touch?
    Turks and Saudis found partners for themselves !?
    "These were, in the sense there are powerful states, enlightened and cultural, sorry for the expression. Here."
    Well, the leaders are where the mind, wisdom and restraint are! With such in any crisis ... fool
  14. Makk
    Makk 16 December 2015 10: 23 New
    +4
    Questions to the author. Where are the graphs of consumption? Where are the graphs of production (production) volumes?
  15. emercom1979
    emercom1979 16 December 2015 10: 28 New
    +3
    Everything is logical. The economy cannot grow constantly. Reduced consumption indicates a crisis of excess supply over demand. Those who have money no longer want to buy, because they don’t need it, and those who don’t have money can’t buy, even if it is necessary. Loans do not offer, ripping off.
    1. Makk
      Makk 16 December 2015 10: 37 New
      0
      Those who have money no longer want to buy, because it’s not necessary,

      Where do you think they are investing?
      and those who do not have money cannot buy

      So the prices have fallen.
      If somewhere has departed, then somewhere has arrived, is it logical?
      1. emercom1979
        emercom1979 16 December 2015 13: 18 New
        0
        Prices fell on raw materials, and sellers of the final product do not want to lose profits and will not reduce prices for previously purchased at a higher price. Actually, price reductions can be seen in a few months. And the money stopped investing in purchases, you can burn out. Production is cost effective if the market is not saturated. What remains is the entertainment industry, precious metals, the securities market and not risky low-income projects (which would save capital and inflation wouldn’t eat it) I personally invest in myself (additional education) and I think to build a house (kids grow up). I don’t pull on an expert, but I think the crisis is in the heads and not among the people.
  16. Andrey_K
    Andrey_K 16 December 2015 10: 34 New
    +6
    Why shouldn't the government use metals as reserves?
    In addition to gold, buy them (from domestic producers) and store them as "foreign exchange reserves."
    It
    1) Support their manufacturers with implicit subsidies.
    2) Provide the ruble with real values.
    3) There will be strategic reserves in case of a big war (and the wars of the future are armies of drones that will need to be riveted very quickly thousands or even millions of pieces, and you won’t get metals from the earth quickly)

    For example, copper will always be in price and sooner or later it will be missed (when the boom in household robotics or the like begins) and, in general, there are no excess reserves.
  17. tux
    tux 16 December 2015 10: 40 New
    +5
    Quote: INVESTOR
    And what is wrong with the graphs? Metals and oil are traded for dollars, more precisely against the US dollar, from another point of view it can be said that the dollar rose and not metals fell with oil, by the way, the usd index is at multi-year highs, and after raising the FRS rate it will trample down. The point of all this movement is to buy up cheap assets around the world for expensive dollars. Author look wider.


    I agree. It was like that during the time of the great depression. When everything went bankrupt and depreciated, a handful bought up everything. So it is likely that the crisis did for these purposes.
  18. Gor-1974
    Gor-1974 16 December 2015 10: 40 New
    +7
    It only says that the owners of the planet earth are not going to build a bright future for all peoples. Global projects, colonization of other planets, the creation of paradise on earth, the spiritual development of mankind will not be implemented — all this will not happen, but there will be (another 3 times a finger on the head) another war, destruction and a certain number of years of bringing production to the same level, and there on a new one. How is it possible they think, Whatever humankind would amuse, if only it would not grow wiser.
  19. chunga-changa
    chunga-changa 16 December 2015 10: 44 New
    +1
    I’m more interested when gasoline will already fall in price?
    About stagnation. America, India, China have a steady growth of 5-7%, England, Japan, Germany 1-5%. “Stagnation” is only where brilliant managers from the former CPSU district committees, special services and Soviet newspapers are at the helm.
    1. alicante11
      alicante11 16 December 2015 12: 33 New
      0
      About stagnation. America, India, China have a steady growth of 5-7%, England, Japan, Germany 1-5%.


      Yeah, growth, by printing money and playing the stock market.
      1. chunga-changa
        chunga-changa 16 December 2015 13: 18 New
        0
        Surely. You’re writing from a laptop or tablet, turn it over and read the proud inscription “made in Russia”. After that, write something else about how everything is really arranged.
        Especially about how India is increasing its GDP by printing rupees and playing on the Bombay Exchange, and why printing rubles and playing on the Moscow Exchange does not lead to the same increase.
        1. alicante11
          alicante11 16 December 2015 14: 21 New
          0
          Surely. You’re writing from a laptop or tablet, turn it over and read the proud inscription “made in Russia”.


          And what, the whole economy consists of only laptops and iPhones? But what, my laptop, bought in 2008, the in-depth tea adds US GDP to 2015? You would then have given a curve for laptop sales growth.

          Especially about how India is increasing its GDP by printing rupees and playing on the Bombay Exchange, and why printing rubles and playing on the Moscow Exchange does not lead to the same increase.


          Well, if you already mentioned the Indians' stock-market game, then I would like specifics in the numbers. As for our exchange, we have a small one, and thank God, a small drop in real production is better than a growth in GDP due to the exchange with a large drop in production.
          1. chunga-changa
            chunga-changa 16 December 2015 14: 44 New
            0
            In my first post there are numbers, you can refute them except as "Yeah, growth, by printing money and playing the stock exchange."? Those. Give your numbers, what proportion of India’s GDP growth is in money printing and gambling. If it doesn’t work with India, try with China. As soon as you do this, I will immediately begin to draw graphs on what proportion of GDP growth comes from well-established computer production in America.
            1. alicante11
              alicante11 16 December 2015 15: 34 New
              0
              There are numbers in my first post, can you refute them except "Aha, growth, by printing money and playing the stock exchange."?


              http://www.protown.ru/information/hide/3525.html


              You are welcome. 32,4% of GDP in the USA against 14,7% of GDP in Russia - "financial activity". And amers also have a printing press - this is a net GDP growth :).

              But I, in fact, about your (my) laptop. How its presence and its origin shows the growth of GDP, and at the expense of the Indians, how much does the exchange game add to them. Although there, I can assume that GDP is added by a simple increase in the working-age population :).
              1. chunga-changa
                chunga-changa 16 December 2015 16: 33 New
                0
                = http: //www.protown.ru/information/hide/3525.html

                Thanks for the link, but it doesn’t roll "for the last available year (2001-2006)." I find fault with that. Because it’s still not clear why printing rubles, playing the stock exchange and population growth due to migrants does not lead to an increase in our GDP? For example, I would live with pleasure in a country in which GDP is growing at least due to printing money, at least due to speculation, at least at the expense of 20 million guest workers. We have all this too, but where is the result?
                As for the laptop, everything is simple. Where there is production independent of the price of oil, laptops or other complex equipment, there is a strange coincidence that there is an increase in GDP and living standards. Where almost all of the available in the apartment is produced in other countries and exchanged for oil - a drop in GDP and impoverishment. Yes, unlike the damned speculators.
  20. rudik
    rudik 16 December 2015 10: 44 New
    0
    I wonder how many "friends" and the United States paid the author of the article ????? Bredyatina all friends all is well just the economy is to blame. A time machine in 1937. would send it.
  21. Nikolay71
    Nikolay71 16 December 2015 10: 45 New
    +3
    The fact that a crisis is coming no weaker than the Great Depression has been predicted for a long time. To get out of that crisis, a world war was needed. I'm afraid this time without a big war it will not do.
  22. Zomanus
    Zomanus 16 December 2015 10: 46 New
    +3
    Rogers always has interesting articles.
    And in other sources I read that metals in price fell.
    By the way, now, in general, a real chance to switch to settlements in national currencies.
    The volumes are small, you can safely work out the techniques.
  23. rudik
    rudik 16 December 2015 10: 48 New
    -1
    Well, yes, and his last name is such a patriotic one !!!!
  24. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 16 December 2015 10: 58 New
    +2
    For me, economists in terms of forecasts have caught up with meteorologists. That is, in a day, global warming is coming, then global cooling. Yesterday, the Chinese economy wrote on the rise, European GDP is growing, etc., today the opposite.
  25. rudik
    rudik 16 December 2015 11: 04 New
    +1
    This is not a global conspiracy, but a global conspiracy!
  26. edeligor
    edeligor 16 December 2015 11: 27 New
    0
    Correct article. But, by the way, the UDRP in the election ride. Kremlin celestials do not see beyond the garden ring, therefore rotation is necessary. Question of whom - From another song, we will see.
  27. voyaka uh
    voyaka uh 16 December 2015 11: 29 New
    0
    Raw materials are only part of the economy.
    The high-tech industry is much
    consumes less raw materials, much less dependent on
    raw materials than 100 years ago.
    Therefore, falling commodity prices does not mean a common
    economic downturn. For example, Boeing and Airbus are inundated
    orders for many years to come.
    Container ships are launched like pies.
    What is the decline over the entire planet?
    Giants - China, USA, India are steadily increasing GDP.
    Only Southern Europe is marking zero.
    1. alicante11
      alicante11 16 December 2015 12: 40 New
      0
      Therefore, falling commodity prices does not mean a common
      economic downturn. For example, Boeing and Airbus are inundated
      orders for many years to come.


      Forgive me, but WHO will these aircraft carry? A couple or two hundred oligarchs and a couple or two thousand of high-tech top managers? The Soviet aircraft industry also had many orders, which in the 90 were rotted at airfields. In addition, the fleet has to be updated and this does not mean an increase in traffic.

      Container ships are launched like pies.


      And, excuse me, WHAT will these container ships carry, since the transportation of resources and, accordingly, the volumes and sizes of finished products will be reduced? Yes, and high-tech, too, will not stay long on the crest. When everyone else in the pocket starts to walk the wind, then the hi-tech will cover with a recession. There will simply be no one to buy computers and programs and nothing.
      1. voyaka uh
        voyaka uh 16 December 2015 15: 28 New
        +1
        "Forgive me, but WHO will these aircraft carry? A couple or two
        hundreds of oligarchs "////

        How do you say? The largest aircraft manufacturers and the largest
        air carriers usually take the market for decades to come
        (and, of course, take into account the trends of ups and downs, including raw materials).
        For example, the Chinese national aircraft manufacturer, assembled
        recently its first passenger airliner, received orders for 517 aircraft ...
        It’s unlikely that it’s “a couple of hundreds of oligarchs but a couple of thousand of high-tech top managers,”
        as you suggested ... wink
    2. tokens2
      tokens2 16 December 2015 13: 07 New
      0
      Therefore, falling commodity prices does not mean a common
      economic downturn.

      Why?
      Cyclicity is all. Integrated in scientific and technological progress.
      We are waiting for the shaft of "discoveries" by British scientists. And again, until the new cycle of "insight" of science. The truth is, there are insights laughing like with shale gas.
      Any inventions that do not fit into the cyclical nature of the economy (Western economy) will be determined to be far ahead of their time laughing
      That's why they Russian scientist "threw" the idea of ​​cyclicality?
      Ah, the West got used to live by other people's brains laughing
  28. nik1321
    nik1321 16 December 2015 11: 34 New
    +1
    Okay, the global crisis and falling prices for metals and oil, but how many countries except Russia brought down the national currency by 2 times in practice? I would understand if the ruble ceased to be dependent on dollars. and restrictions on the export of foreign currency would be introduced, they would fix the exchange rate firmly and reduce foreign exchange costs to a minimum, interest rates on the ruble would be reduced to 5-12%. But what’s really, is it just being discussed whether to pay contributions to the Council of Europe or not (against the backdrop of sanctions - amazing !!!), and at the same time do not criticize the government ... There is one saying - there is nothing to blame for the mirror if the face is crooked. The world has nothing to do with it - it was, is, and will be - like the processes taking place in it. It is important only how the world situation is assessed and what measures are being taken.
    And the author with his charts, etc. I would like to ask a question - what are the foreign exchange earnings of the Russian Federation from the sale of natural resources during the period from 2000 to 2015 and where is all this spent?
    1. alicante11
      alicante11 16 December 2015 12: 56 New
      0
      but how many countries besides Russia brought down the national currency 2 times practically?


      Would you like to stop paying salaries and pensions, or to cut them 2-3 times?
      It was assumed that a fall in the currency would lead to a rise in price of foreign goods, but would not lead to a rise in price of domestic goods and, as a result, people would not reduce consumption, but would simply switch to domestic counterparts where they exist. In fact, in addition to mass computer technology, we all have our own. Not without questions on light industry and motor transport, but it is still better than if everyone had their income cut off. And for the two-price rise, you need to thank not the government, but yourself-loved ones. Well, our shopkeeper cannot fail to raise the price of his radish if the Korean radish has risen in price next. Etozh profits lost.

      And the author with his charts, etc. I would like to ask a question - what are the foreign exchange earnings of the Russian Federation from the sale of natural resources during the period from 2000 to 2015 and where is all this spent?


      Well, look at the lists of domestic billionaires and immediately understand where. But for that and capitalism, to the “scoop”, no one wants it? Then what are the claims?
  29. Rafyl
    Rafyl 16 December 2015 11: 38 New
    0
    What is most surprising is that, against the backdrop of a rise in price of everyone and everything, people's salaries reduce where we go?
  30. DobryAAH
    DobryAAH 16 December 2015 12: 07 New
    +2
    The fact that the global economy is falling is true. But the fact that the United States is not involved in the drop in oil is nonsense. They can not only bring it to 20, but also with the same probability to cram it into 200 and justify everything. There is a conspiracy against us.
  31. uhu189
    uhu189 16 December 2015 12: 10 New
    +2
    The correlation of oil prices and metal prices is largely due to the fact that China was the main consumer of these resources, and it now has a slowdown in growth and a drop in demand for resources.
    Only I did not understand from the text of the article - how is the economic crisis compared with the actions of our government? Talking about the fact that our economy is holding very well needs specifics - is it not bad compared to who exactly? With Venezuela - yes, really not bad. With Germany? Sorry, I do not agree. I don’t even want to talk about the USA. It turns out that red is compared with hot and, moreover, clearly in a populist form, although the author considers himself an economist. Sorry, but I don’t believe it. Spydell is an economist, and Alexander Rogers is a propagandist.
    I am not opposed to positive articles, they are needed and should be, but one really needs to look at things, and not to drive propaganda from morning till night, saying that white is actually black and vice versa.
  32. Wolka
    Wolka 16 December 2015 12: 11 New
    +1
    if so, I’ll go to the taiga, the taiga will accept, warm and feed ...
  33. cap
    cap 16 December 2015 12: 15 New
    0
    Quote: nik1321
    . There is one saying - there is nothing to blame on the mirror if the face is crooked. The world has nothing to do with it - it was, is, and will be - like the processes taking place in it. It is only important how the situation in the world is assessed and what measures are being taken.
    And the author with his charts, etc. I would like to ask a question - what are the foreign exchange earnings of the Russian Federation from the sale of natural resources during the period from 2000 to 2015 and where is all this spent?

    Quote: Makk
    Questions to the author. Where are the graphs of consumption? Where are the graphs of production (production) volumes?

    Quote: jjj
    Two days ago, a regular meeting was held at VGTRK near Soloviev. One participant said that he had just returned from Severodvinsk. There, shipyards are cutting salaries. Prices for everything have risen dramatically.
    But the whole piquancy of the situation is that the money for the construction of new boats is transferred in advance. By the way, "Emperor Alexander III" pr. 955 will be laid on December 18



    From the point of view of populism and ambitions, it is always more profitable to criticize the government than to praise. But in the current circumstances, the Russian government is objectively acting very competently. Yes, you can "file the file." Yes, you can, for example, implement Glazyev’s proposals more quickly. Yes, you can have a lot more.

    However, “The best is the enemy of the good,” and perfectionism leads to a broken trough (as can be easily seen from the example of the former Ukraine). Therefore, be able to appreciate what is, and do not chase the mirages.

    And note that the global crisis is just entering its main phase. So fasten your seat belts and stay calm - turbulence is possible during the flight. Smile and wave.
    Author Alexander Roger


    We smile and wave. This is a topic for another conversation. hi .
  34. bair1976
    bair1976 16 December 2015 12: 54 New
    +2
    Then why raise prices and seek to increase salaries? Then they would have reduced everything.
  35. pts-m
    pts-m 16 December 2015 13: 13 New
    0
    however, when all the accumulated reserves of oil, etc., are running out, and then slowly there is a rise. indeed, we must value what we have.
  36. Mama_Cholli
    Mama_Cholli 16 December 2015 13: 23 New
    +1
    But I was always struck by one thing that would not happen, but our gas prices are always rising ...
    I do not like Navalny, but he illuminates something correctly:
    https://navalny.com/p/3934/
  37. kazachyok69
    kazachyok69 16 December 2015 13: 50 New
    -1
    But in the current circumstances, the Russian government objectively acts very competently

    Exactly !!!! And it always acted correctly! wink Particularly delightful was the assessment of these actions by D.A. Medvedev somewhere a little less than a year ago, which on Channel 1 said literally the following to the whole country: "... everything that we did in the economy all these years turned out to be wrong .."! !!! It’s wonderful ... In light of the fact that there are NO people responsible for this .... everyone is sitting there (they have been the same for 15 years !!!) ... and the personal well-being of these "same" has grown over the "all these years" several orders of magnitude ... Have raped the country and no one is to blame?
    1. Mama_Cholli
      Mama_Cholli 16 December 2015 13: 59 New
      +1
      And I even more like the word "did" in the above phrase ....
  38. Neophyte
    Neophyte 16 December 2015 16: 32 New
    +1
    Who should live well in Russia? The salary range of the State Duma deputies increased: 400-850 thousand per month? And this is not the limit ??
  39. xBoris
    xBoris 17 December 2015 16: 03 New
    0
    And in my opinion, this is a consequence of the economic movement by the extensive method - the constant increase in production. This is a dead end. Rather, not even a dead end, but a banal pyramid. Whether it is the production of steel, oil, washing machines or Internet traffic. Anyway, there will come a time when the consumer (I ... you ... they) no longer need almost any goods, simply because everything is already there, everything has already been bought ... For a new spurt in demand, either a global war is needed - to clear a place in the house, for new things, or the invention of new goods, which will require a lot of resources and at the same time will be necessary for everyone. And another way is to reduce the quality of the goods so as to reach the balance of production and supply. Look at the auto market - programmable wear, loss of quality ... - this is one way to maintain demand.
    In our country, it is also a problem of too low incomes. It is necessary to raise pensions, salaries, .. incomes not of individuals, but the masses of the population. Demand is far from being satisfied; there is simply no money.