Military Review

Analyst: Americans should be wary of the Chinese Air Force

50
American analyst Michael Peck in an article for National Interest magazine tried to explain why the United States should be wary of the Chinese Air Force.




“The power of the Chinese air force is growing. If a crisis breaks out in the skies over Taiwan, will Washington really be able to stop Beijing? ” RIA News analytics.

In his article, Peck refers to the research work “Air superiority opportunities in the USA and China” prepared by the American center RAND. The authors considered two possible situations: “the invasion of the PRC into Taiwan and the Sino-American conflict over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea”.

The scenarios tried on the state of the USA and China air forces on 4 specific years - 1996, 2003, 2010 and 2017.

According to Peck, "the results were amazing."

“In particular, in 1996, the United States would have won an easy victory in the skies over Taiwan with the help of the entire 2,1 squadron. In 2003, the Americans would already need 10,6 squadrons, in 2010 - 19,6. In the 2017 year (the number of aircraft in the squadron is 72), ”writes the analyst.

In 2017, 29,9 squadrons will already be needed, i.e. 2 thous. Aircraft.

“As for the war of attrition war scenario, the US would have needed an 1996 squadron to destroy 50 percent of China’s air force in the event of its hypothetical Taiwan attack, Peck said in the 0,8 year.

He notes that it was easier for Americans to dominate the skies over the South China Sea than near territorial China. “And yet, according to Rand’s calculations, the difference between the 1996 and 2017 years is still significant - the 0,5 and 10,1 squadrons, respectively,” the author writes.

Rand experts warned that their calculations should not be taken literally, since they used mostly open sources. The purpose of the study is to show the development trend of the air fleets of the two countries and study the consequences of the changes that have occurred.

In general, the researchers came to the following conclusion: “Although the US still has no equal in the conduct of air combat, due to the modernization of the Chinese Air Force, coupled with the inevitable difficulties in conducting operations at long distances in the Asian theater of operations, the US is increasingly difficult to achieve air superiority in the first days or weeks of possible military conflict with the PRC.
Photos used:
AFP 2015 / Johannes Eisele
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  1. Air Force captain
    Air Force captain 18 November 2015 16: 25 New
    13
    What a pilotess in the photo ... mmm ... I would have surrendered to her))
    1. MIKHAN
      MIKHAN 18 November 2015 16: 27 New
      49
      “Although the United States still has no equal in air combat,

      Is it interesting with anyone ...? That bomb with impunity in this they definitely have no equal!
      1. 79807420129
        79807420129 18 November 2015 16: 35 New
        16
        But damn what, then at first everyone compared us, now they attacked China, rushing there and there.
        1. Baikonur
          Baikonur 18 November 2015 16: 36 New
          +6
          This is to make Congress more taxpayers loot from the budget more!
          A lot of confrontation with Russia and a lot of confrontation with China!
          1. gladcu2
            gladcu2 19 November 2015 00: 33 New
            +1
            Baikonur

            The conversations of American generals need to be divided by 2 and multiplied by zero.

            They still do not understand that behind China there is a force that stands silently and waits for these generals to enter.

            It takes time. Just a couple of months. So far, it will come to them that weapons will no longer be able to solve global problems. And you have to sit down at the negotiating table.

            I say this without irony. This is actually so. It takes up to six months.
        2. Sterlya
          Sterlya 18 November 2015 16: 38 New
          +6
          Quote: 79807420129
          But damn what, then at first everyone compared us, now they attacked China, rushing there and there.

          So an hour more and more countries Amer love, probably this is the reason.
          And so they all got the export of the dollar and shit democracy.
        3. Sasha 19871987
          Sasha 19871987 18 November 2015 16: 46 New
          +2
          yeah, it’s good for ov to go out to fight countries with weak air defense ... against an equal opponent, they will sag ... Anglo-Saxons ...
        4. sgazeev
          sgazeev 18 November 2015 19: 16 New
          0
          Quote: 79807420129
          But damn what, then at first everyone compared us, now they attacked China, rushing there and there.

          Played in toys, "analytics" EPT.
        5. sir_obs
          sir_obs 18 November 2015 22: 04 New
          0
          looking for those who will not give them the teeth ...
      2. OlegLex
        OlegLex 18 November 2015 16: 57 New
        +2
        yes really, and who compared that?
      3. meriem1
        meriem1 18 November 2015 17: 12 New
        +2
        Quote: MIKHAN
        “Although the United States still has no equal in air combat,

        Is it interesting with anyone ...? That bomb with impunity in this they definitely have no equal!


        Yes, everyone knows .. that they are the most-most. They forgot about Vietnam !!!! And nowhere else did they come across at least a decent opponent !!! The more conceit and less self-criticism, the more fun it is to fall!
      4. Tor5
        Tor5 18 November 2015 17: 30 New
        0
        But it would be nice for the Chinese to pinch them ....
      5. The comment was deleted.
    2. Sterlya
      Sterlya 18 November 2015 16: 28 New
      +2
      Quote: Captain Air Force
      What a pilotess in the photo ... mmm ... I would have surrendered to her))

      An American would rather surrender to a pilot, not a pilot laughing
      And this pilotess is nothing, confidently striding ..... wink laughing
    3. Andrey Yuryevich
      Andrey Yuryevich 18 November 2015 16: 28 New
      +3
      Quote: Captain Air Force
      What a pilotess in the photo ... mmm ... I would have surrendered to her))

      a lover of Chinese torture? lol
      1. quote
        quote 18 November 2015 16: 48 New
        +1
        Quote: Andrew Y.
        Quote: Captain Air Force
        What a pilotess in the photo ... mmm ... I would have surrendered to her))

        a lover of Chinese torture? lol

        Exactly! "Havat" rice, for years!
    4. wk
      wk 18 November 2015 16: 29 New
      -5
      Quote: Captain Air Force
      What a pilotess in the photo ... mmm ... I would have surrendered to her))

      but in the know that they have across?))))
    5. The comment was deleted.
    6. oldseaman1957
      oldseaman1957 18 November 2015 16: 29 New
      +3
      Quote: Captain Air Force
      mmm ... I would have surrendered))

      - They’re tough guys, so you can have an eye from the army of a Chinese lady.
      1. Belarus
        Belarus 18 November 2015 16: 38 New
        +1
        laughing From such a girl to get in the eye is also nice laughing
      2. Belarus
        Belarus 18 November 2015 16: 38 New
        +1
        laughing From such a girl to get in the eye is also nice laughing
    7. bubalik
      bubalik 18 November 2015 16: 55 New
      +2
      Since the first batch of female pilots in 1951 so far, the Air Force has numbered 9 parties, a total of 500 female pilots have risen in the blue sky over the Homeland, thus China has become the country with the largest number of female pilots in the world. In the future, China will not only train female fighter pilots, but will gradually expand to bombers, long-range patrol aircraft, refueling aircraft and other types. These female pilots will also be a backup team for the Chinese space program.


      http://russian.people.com.cn/n/2015/1112/c31521-8975419.html
    8. The comment was deleted.
    9. guzik007
      guzik007 18 November 2015 16: 58 New
      +1
      What a pilotess in the photo ... mmm ... I would have surrendered to her))
      -------------------------------------------------- ----

      Gavrila will come right now ...
    10. ssergn
      ssergn 18 November 2015 17: 29 New
      0
      He will try after all. winked
    11. Fox_1959
      Fox_1959 18 November 2015 18: 25 New
      0
      See that your words do not come true ....
      1. kartalovkolya
        kartalovkolya 19 November 2015 10: 09 New
        0
        If on a hayloft, then with a blacksmith! No, we don’t need a blacksmith ... That's it, or you can become "legally incapable", but in general, as Lavrenty Pavlovich used to say, that the Attempt is not torture! Forward and with the song, as in "Elusive Avengers": Pa-Ba-Bam Pa-ba-bam and so on in the text ...
    12. APASUS
      APASUS 18 November 2015 20: 00 New
      0
      Quote: Captain Air Force
      What a pilotess in the photo ... mmm ... I would have surrendered to her))

      Can't you see that this is a model and shooting in the American manner?
  2. cniza
    cniza 18 November 2015 16: 29 New
    +5
    Interesting analytical statistics, the spirit is still important in life, but here it is not taken into account.
  3. Love
    Love 18 November 2015 16: 29 New
    +1
    These zezdanutu-striped let them fear our VKS! ..
    1. quote
      quote 18 November 2015 16: 45 New
      +1
      Air Force (force?) SCA! Urgent fear! Natural ravens (bird) in the sky above Greenland! Probably it causes concern?
      Doesn't cause?
      This is Chinese ravens!
      And now?
  4. Sterlya
    Sterlya 18 November 2015 16: 30 New
    +3
    Yes, in the sky over Taiwan, at this time already, the Amers have nothing to do, even in conjunction with the Japanese. (those are no longer samurai, but some kind of humiliated nation (amer))
    1. venaya
      venaya 18 November 2015 16: 40 New
      +4
      Quote: Sterlya
      in the sky over Taiwan, at this time, the Amers have nothing to do, even in conjunction with the Japanese. (those are no longer samurai, but some kind of humiliated nation (amer))

      In relation to the Japanese, I always had doubts that this is a kind of independent nation. Yesterday, at the end of the XNUMXth century, they successfully smashed the Chinese Empire, but where did they get the finances and military technology? Given that the peace treaty after the Russo-Japanese War was signed in San Francisco and even with the participation of the banker J. Shif, I think that they have since completely depended on the United States.
      1. Sterlya
        Sterlya 18 November 2015 16: 58 New
        +1
        And there is. The Russians came, they won, they left. Amery have time to share the cake, and never leave. Bring shit democracy, dollars.
        Colonizers in fact, with some innovations
      2. Karlovar
        Karlovar 18 November 2015 20: 13 New
        0
        From Shif and Leib Bronstein-Trotsky received denyuzhki .....
  5. Love
    Love 18 November 2015 16: 32 New
    +2
    Quote: Captain Air Force
    What a pilotess in the photo ... mmm ... I would have surrendered to her))

    And how he steps! He doesn’t go, but writes! .. One writes, the other crosses out))))
  6. PlotnikoffDD
    PlotnikoffDD 18 November 2015 16: 35 New
    +4
    Strange, the role of the F-35 in the victory over the Chinese Air Force was not disclosed!)))
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  7. fa2998
    fa2998 18 November 2015 16: 36 New
    +4
    What kind of squadron-2 regiment will have enough planes. Maybe with the transfer? hi
    1. dauria
      dauria 18 November 2015 21: 45 New
      +1
      there are enough planes for 2 regiments. Maybe, what about the transfer?


      Probably they have there a "wing" for about 70 aircraft. And in the squadron 18-24.
      C'mon, why do "journalists" need such little things. The main thing - rapid jack laughing
  8. roskot
    roskot 18 November 2015 16: 43 New
    +1
    That's for sure. It’s better not to mess with China. This is real power. And the power that builds muscle.
  9. dchegrinec
    dchegrinec 18 November 2015 16: 45 New
    +1
    As the thief says, the hat is on! America has always and everywhere messed up so much that it needs to be afraid of something everywhere! China is modernizing itself, copying, giving birth itself, but is engaged! And something still turns out and it will turn out. So do not be dirty and do not be afraid.
  10. X
    X Y Z 18 November 2015 16: 55 New
    +1
    "Although the US still has no equal in air combat ..."


    Further it is already possible not to read. I would like to know in what years the United States last fought air battles with an enemy with modern weapons and trained flight personnel. Colonial wars and aggressions against third world countries, please do not offer.
    1. Sterlya
      Sterlya 18 November 2015 17: 05 New
      +2
      Quote: XYZ
      "Although the US still has no equal in air combat ..."


      Further it is already possible not to read. I would like to know in what years the United States last fought air battles with an enemy with modern weapons and trained flight personnel. Colonial wars and aggressions against third world countries, please do not offer.

      After Vietnam with no one. Let them comfort themselves with self-confidence, and do not dissuade them of this.
      We need it?
  11. Sergey Sitnikov
    Sergey Sitnikov 18 November 2015 16: 58 New
    +1
    How do these chelas think it at all? And if there, for example, in whales, for example, 2-3 C-300 on the offshore platform will be? Will they take down Avax + 10-15 to the heap f22x?
  12. iouris
    iouris 18 November 2015 17: 00 New
    +1
    Yes, and so they are all "afraid", because they have become "the only pole."
    China is a wise monkey who, for 10000 years from the top of the mountain, has been watching a movie about how two tigers strangle each other.
    1. Weyland
      Weyland 18 November 2015 21: 31 New
      0
      Quote: iouris
      10000 years from the top of the mountain watching a movie about how two tigers strangle each other.


      And how many tigers during this period from ... caught a wise monkey on top of a mountain? Tohars (Shang dynasty), toba (Zhou and Tang), karakitai aka Khitan (Liao), Jurchen (Jin), Mongols (Yuan), Manchu (Qing). This is not counting the Huns, Zhuzhuns, Turkuts, Uyghurs, brazen (Opium Wars) and Jap (WWII), which did not establish their dynasties ... wink.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  13. moody fin
    moody fin 18 November 2015 17: 04 New
    0
    Hello. Sometimes it seems that the power of the Amer army is akin to their advertising .... greatly exaggerated ....
  14. mvg
    mvg 18 November 2015 17: 05 New
    -1
    Yes, the essence of further comments largely depends on the first three. wink
    72 aircraft / squadrons - all honestly.
    From Taiwan to mainland China, less than 200 km. If the air battles are over the Taiwan Strait, the Americans will be so uncomfortable .. At the same time, China has objectively more OTP than the Republic. There is an opportunity to "knock out" military bases, air defense, and industry ..
    So 10, 20 or 30 squadrons - that’s another grandmother (analysts) said .. And the fact that China has a damn cloud of landing ships, from canoe to BDK, should “please” the states even more .. Japan will not even have time to intervene ..
    PS: Only one BUT. The Chinese have trade with the United States, more than 100 lard a year, more than with anyone ...
  15. Benya krik
    Benya krik 18 November 2015 17: 05 New
    +1
    Amer wants to twitch all fate for ginetalia. What will they do if China finds a way to deliver a two-million-strong army to the shores of sunny California ???
  16. Mantykora
    Mantykora 18 November 2015 17: 16 New
    +1
    Americans should be afraid of this ... The word "fear" is already enraging. It is necessary to instill in them not FEARS, but FEAR so that they get out onto their island and do not show their nose.
    1. Benya krik
      Benya krik 18 November 2015 18: 01 New
      -1
      It’s correct that, as in the sixties, under the desks in colleges, they taught to hide.
  17. iliitchitch
    iliitchitch 18 November 2015 17: 33 New
    +3
    Quote: Captain Air Force
    What a pilotess in the photo ... mmm ... I would have surrendered to her))


    And I would have captured her. Fuck with him, with an eye.
  18. BARKHAN
    BARKHAN 18 November 2015 17: 45 New
    +3
    They will never clash with each other, because they are economically soldered into each other tightly. And money, as you understand above all ...
    Both those and others will push their enemies and competitors with their foreheads ... and then they will finish or "help" the weakened ...
    If we just theoretically consider the possibility of a conflict, then it seems to me that all the fuss will occur off the coast of China, since there is nothing to look for off the coast of the USA, and there is no way for the Chinese to do something there.
    At the same time, the Americans will be problematic off the Chinese coast. As aircraft carriers are not cool, they are just very large iron troughs and their own shore is far away. Supply of a group on a foreign coast is possible only with multiple superiority over the enemy, which is debatable in this case ..
    Well, another factor that few people think about ... The presence of a huge Chinese diaspora in the United States itself, and this factor can shoot worse than ISIS ...
  19. Gormenghast
    Gormenghast 18 November 2015 17: 45 New
    0
    What is surprising is that all sane people are developing, while the Hegemons are busy bombing, torturing, robbing and other democratic achievements.
  20. marinier
    marinier 18 November 2015 17: 54 New
    0
    Good time of the day! In my opinion, the author does not own the entirety of the picture.
    I would like to take an interest, on the basis of 4th such a conclusion. And on the other hand, he
    under the term "air battle"
  21. Alexey Boukin
    Alexey Boukin 18 November 2015 18: 23 New
    0
    Quote: MIKHAN
    “Although the United States still has no equal in air combat,

    It is quite possible ... But our pilots do not use diapers with the maximum approximation of the enemy aircraft ...
  22. Denis Skiff
    Denis Skiff 18 November 2015 18: 30 New
    0
    What a tall plane in the photo.
    1. mvg
      mvg 18 November 2015 19: 07 New
      0
      What a tall plane in the photo.

      Just chinese small
  23. Zaurbek
    Zaurbek 18 November 2015 18: 31 New
    0
    I would give up to the pilot too! In reality, US hegemony in aviation is only possible near the borders of developing states. Taking control of the sky brought the Chinese borders only a matter of time, very short. There are two components of success: air defense and air force. the most responsible regions are covered by S-300 and Su-27 (and their analogues), the number of S-300 air defense ships is growing along the way, and the issue of increasing the controlled area is the issue of manufacturing these systems and buying from us. Accordingly, soon the United States and Japan will simply cease to fly into the disputed territories.
  24. vell.65
    vell.65 18 November 2015 19: 44 New
    0
    Quote: MIKHAN
    “Although the United States still has no equal in air combat,

    If only with the inhabitants of the island of Mumba-Yumba, the Indians have already lost on our dryers, recently they don’t even want to get in touch with our pilots, and the Chinese, I think, will not stay on hold — they will squeeze the striped ones to everyone’s satisfaction. good
  25. samoletil18
    samoletil18 18 November 2015 20: 38 New
    0
    Something in their squadron of 72 aircraft. And they are already afraid. Well, let them bring to 144 and do not fear.
    Strange article.
  26. BNM
    BNM 18 November 2015 20: 55 New
    0
    Quote: Captain Air Force
    What a pilotess in the photo ... mmm ... I would have surrendered to her))

    over there niger on the right all the saliva expired in the photo wassat
  27. Mikhail Krapivin
    Mikhail Krapivin 18 November 2015 21: 58 New
    +1
    Again there is a cold and rational Western analysis: the amount of iron, the distance from the bases, the destruction of half of the existing aircraft ... Again, the human factor is not taken into account, the fact that the Chinese will go to death without question, to the superior forces of the enemy, to ram, if necessary. And the fact that the American pilots, having suffered heavy losses and being at constant risk of death, will begin to look for the opportunity to avoid death at all costs, with all the ensuing consequences, in the form of a drop in the combat effectiveness of the US Air Force. So with a more or less equal ratio of the number of aircraft and their performance characteristics, I personally would bet the Chinese no doubt.