Military Review

Iran breaks into the market

20
In the very near future, Iran may become the largest player in the global gas market. This was recently said by the Deputy Minister of Oil of the Islamic Republic. And here is another "formidable" statement: Iran will not coordinate with OPEC an increase in oil supplies to the market after the lifting of sanctions. This was stated by the Minister of Oil himself. Finally, it became known that the managing director of KEPCO (oil and gas exploration and production companies in the Caspian Sea) promised to present four projects related to deposits in the Caspian Sea to foreign investors by the end of November.


Iran breaks into the market


Recall that Iran is among the top three countries with the largest reserves of gas and oil (9,4% and 18% of the world).

In the evening of November 17, a statement was made in the Russian press by Deputy Minister of Oil of the Islamic Republic, Hosein Amir Zamaninia. In the near future, Iran may become the largest player in the gas market, the agency “Shana” reports.

“Already today, Iran is one of the largest gas producers in the world. And in the near future, it will become a leading player in the global market for this energy source. Naturally, Iran has gas reserves of more than 33 trillion. cubic meters, hopes to become a major participant in the world trade in raw materials ", - quotes the official Gazeta.ru.

Iran produces 173 billion cubic meters of gas per year, and most of it is consumed domestically. 10 billion cubic meters is exported (to Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan). Gas pipeline projects that will increase gas exports to Iraq, Pakistan and Oman are underway.

Zamanin says the Iranian Oil Ministry sets the goal of doubling gas production by 2020. Production volume will be increased to 1,3 billion cubic meters per day. The method of delivery of raw materials - transportation of liquefied gas by sea on tankers. According to the agency, the only gas liquefaction plant is under construction in Iran (readiness is estimated at about 60%).

That same day, November 17, Interfax conveyed a statement from Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zangane. According to him, Iran will not coordinate with OPEC the question of increasing oil supplies to the world market after the lifting of sanctions or ask the cartel for permission.

At a press conference in Tehran, the minister confirmed that Iran intends to increase oil exports by 500 thousand barrels per day. As Mr. Zangane assures, Iran is not concerned about the effect of additional oil supply on pricing: “Lowering prices will not be a problem for us. It should alarm those who replaced Iran. ”

Apparently, Iran is not flaunting. Western companies are already looking forward to new commodity projects.

According to a Russian federal official who leads "Lenta.ru", Iran has received frequent delegations from different states. “In Tehran, all hotels are filled - this is a fact. There is a huge interest in the Iranian market: it is shown by Germany, Italy, Austria and many others, including the USA, ”he told the publication.

Ali Osuli, Managing Director of KEPCO, an Iranian oil and gas exploration and production company in the Caspian, promised to present four projects to foreign investors related to the Caspian fields, S. Tarasov writes on the website IA "REGNUM".

“After reaching an agreement on the settlement of the long-term“ nuclear program ”with the Islamic Republic, the economic and financial sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council, the United States and the European Union will be lifted, the expert notes. - Now for Tehran, all the possibilities are opening for conquering the energy market. And this is not a sensation - as stated in the recently published report of World Energy Outlook, which is prepared annually by the International Energy Agency (IEA). There is also marked the onset of a large-scale restructuring of the entire geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and Transcaucasia. ”

However, this does not mean that the “perestroika” will be quiet and peaceful. “Now everything looks different: Caspian energy resources are becoming the very element of Iran’s foreign policy, which will inevitably change the energy and political balance of the entire region, bringing the status of the Caspian region to a halt,” Tarasov said. “So, as the REGNUM news agency noted, in the course of events, forces will begin to more openly manifest themselves, which will try to spread an“ arc of instability ”from the Middle East as a distracting maneuver from the Syrian crisis ...”

Anyway, Russia cannot miss the chance to cooperate with Iran.

Senior Researcher at the Center for the Study of Near and Middle Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Sazhin, whose words "Lenta.ru"He believes that after the lifting of sanctions, Russian companies can compete for tenders in many areas - from participating in the modernization of railway and energy infrastructure to Iranian space programs. According to him, after the cancellation of Iran’s sanctions, investments in up to 500 billion dollars in virtually all sectors of the economy will be required.

Vladimir Sazhin recalls that on the basis of 2013-2015. Russia had “scanty” trade with Iran - 1-1,7 billion dollars.

What prospects does Russia have today in the Iranian market?

Moscow will probably participate in projects where it has advanced experience: in the areas of nuclear energy, exploration and production of hydrocarbons. Rosatom can build the third and fourth power units of the Bushehr NPP. Zarubezhneft and Rosneft are likely to participate in a tender to develop the Shangule hydrocarbon field with reserves of 2 billion barrels.

According to the results of the Russian-Iranian intergovernmental commission 12 in November, the Minister of Energy of Russia Alexander Novak, notes Lenta.ru, said that Russia intends to bring the volume of mutual trade to 10 billion dollars a year. It's not just about energy.

The Rosselkhoznadzor included twenty-five Iranian enterprises in the register of suppliers of agricultural products. In turn, Iran initialed part of the contract for the electrification of railways in the amount of 860 million dollars from the package in 5-6 billions.

According to Novak, the parties are discussing "a large list of transport projects worth more than 25 billion dollars."

Negotiations are underway with Iran through the Ministry of Industry and Trade, recalls Lenta. The main directions of future cooperation - the supply of engineering products and the organization of joint ventures. Recently, 10 in November, a working meeting of the Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, Georgy Kalamanov, with the First Deputy Minister of Industry, Mines and Trade of the Islamic Republic of Iran Mojtaba Khosroujadj was held. Kalamanov told Lente that Russia is continuing negotiations with Iran on the supply of Tu-204CM and began to negotiate on Sukhoi Superjet 100 airliners.

At the same time, one should not think that it will be easy to reach an agreement with Iran. “Sanctions are sanctions, but if you don’t prepare future deals now, then [after lifting the restrictions] you can forget about many things,” says Kalamanov. According to him, the Iranian side carefully assesses the ratio of price and quality, and therefore Russian companies will face a serious struggle with major international corporations.

One can not "forget" and about some other "things", we add from myself. Iran’s entry into the oil and gas markets after the lifting of sanctions cannot but create some problems for Russia's raw materials economy. Moreover, Tehran is ready to sell oil at a low price - just to gain a foothold in the market. Recall the words of Minister Zangane: “Reducing prices will not be a problem for us. It should alarm those who replaced Iran. ”

Consulting firm "KBC" has calculated the likely losses of Russia in the oil market of Southern Europe in case of return to it of Iran. The amount of possible losses of the Russian Federation is approximately $ 153 million, writes RBC with reference to Bloomberg.

153 million dollars in losses is the estimate given by KBC senior analyst Ehsan ul-Haq.

RBC notes that this amount represents approximately 0,4% of Russia's total annual hydrocarbon sales. However, according to Ul-Haq, prices will eventually fall in other markets, including in northwestern Europe. As a result, Russia's losses "may turn out to be significantly higher."

Mehdi Varzi, a former Iranian diplomat and director of the consulting company Varzi Energy, confirmed to Bloomberg that Iran’s plans to increase production to the pre-sanction level mean that “it will have to look for additional markets, including those to which Russia traditionally supplies.”

Thus, experts do not predict significant losses for Russia from Iran’s entry into the world energy market and the achievement of a “pre-sanctioned” level of supplies by the republic.

At the same time, Russian businessmen and the government are counting on staking out part of the Iranian domestic market for the implementation of a number of large projects. If successful, losses in the oil and gas market can be offset by profits in other areas.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
20 comments
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  1. atalef
    atalef 19 November 2015 06: 22 New
    +6
    A strange article, the fall in oil prices on the dollar, turn into a loss for the state. With a budget of 1 billion, the author claims that entering the Iranian oil market will result in a fall of a maximum of 15 cents (this follows from the statement that the maximum level of losses is $ 153 million) per barrel
    These conclusions seem ridiculous to me, well, let's wait and see
    1. Patriot C
      Patriot C 19 November 2015 06: 42 New
      +4
      Moreover, Iranian heavy, sour crude Iran Heavy is an analogue of the Russian Urals. entering the market, the Iranians will dump exactly Rosneft and Lukoil.
      1. atalef
        atalef 19 November 2015 06: 56 New
        +2
        Quote: PatriotC
        Moreover, Iranian heavy, sour crude Iran Heavy is an analogue of the Russian Urals. entering the market, the Iranians will dump exactly Rosneft and Lukoil.

        The obvious consequence of lifting sanctions from Tehran is the return of Iranian oil to the market. As a result of the embargo in Iran, between 30 and 40 million barrels of unsold oil accumulated in storage facilities and tankers. There is no doubt that with the removal of restrictions all this quantity will rush to the market. The main buyers of this oil, according to Iranians, should be the countries of Southeast Asia. They would also like the EU countries to show interest in it.
        According to experts, the lifting of sanctions will lead to the fact that within a year Iran will reach the level of supplies from 500 thousand to 1 million barrels of oil per day. This will be enough to push the market below the level of $ 40 per barrel.
  2. Griboedoff
    Griboedoff 19 November 2015 06: 53 New
    +5
    It is necessary to adapt to existing conditions and seek benefits in this situation. And they obviously should be, because Russian exports to Iran can and should be in the form of engineering products. Isn't this what we need to "get off the oil needle"? In addition, we can have very convenient transport logistics with Iran (we are only separated by the Caspian Sea).
    1. Talgat
      Talgat 19 November 2015 20: 06 New
      +2
      Quote: Griboedoff
      very convenient transport logistics with Iran (we are only separated by the Caspian Sea).


      Not only. I already wrote something like this - on the last New Year, Kazakhstan and Iran completed the largest project - the railway route Kazakhstan - Iran through Turkmenistan

      Presidents Nazarbayev and Rouhani personally arrived and together "led" the festivities. Nazarbayev announces strategic partnership with Iran and fivefold growth in turnover in coming years
  3. kebeskin
    kebeskin 19 November 2015 07: 04 New
    0
    So what. Iran will not lose its ability to sell oil. The United States is ready to buy Arabs with Turkey, too, lower the price of oil. And we need to try to get off the oil needle. At such a pace, we are waiting for 80 rubles per ye. More likely negative news for us
  4. sa-ag
    sa-ag 19 November 2015 07: 10 New
    -1
    Additional oil on the market will push the price down, Iran that they lived in sanctions and not very notice this by the consequences
  5. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 19 November 2015 09: 13 New
    +3
    The important thing is not how much oil the Iranians can “throw” into the market, and how much they “sell” oil prices. The important thing is how much and what Iran will buy for the petrodollars received. And if he will spend this money in Russia - it is still unknown whether Russia will lose from this dumping, or win. Everyone is pleased to cite the figures for losses of the Russian budget from lower oil prices. And I believe that the rain of petrodollars simply destroyed the Russian industry. With the prices of engineering products supported by the low cost of the currency, it was not easy to compete with Europe. It was easier to buy. Now the situation has changed radically, and it turned out that in Russia there are manufacturers, and components, and skilled people. This is not idle speculation, but their own experience.
    1. sa-ag
      sa-ag 19 November 2015 09: 17 New
      +1
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      It is important how much and what Iran will buy for the petrodollars received.

      Well, for example, drilling equipment, oil refining equipment, if they have sulphurous oil, then they need equipment for cleaning hydrogen sulfide
    2. U-96
      U-96 19 November 2015 09: 32 New
      +1
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      The important thing is not how much oil the Iranians can “throw” into the market, and how much they “sell” oil prices.

      I don’t know, I don’t know ... If our ECU reads a prayer every night for the oil to grow and lift the sanctions, then the volumes and price of Iranian oil are far from secondary factors) Moreover, this cartel - the SA, Iraq and Iran - is heavily dumping . November discount within 30-50 cents at $ 43 / barrel - this is not so little)
  6. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 19 November 2015 09: 43 New
    +3
    Strong Iran is more beneficial for us, although it will be more difficult to cooperate with it.
    Chinese wisdom Bel-Ko-tzu:
    “A wise ruler advances along with gifted people.“ As a ruler, a wise man always relied on gifted people whom he gathered around him, uniting their will and coordinating efforts. ”
    A weak (not wise - i.e. stupid) ruler surrounds himself with people weaker than himself. “Only against the background of insignificant people can a weak ruler feel wise and significant. But at the same time, the people lose confidence in the heart of those who are above. Then you will cause confusion, and shame will arise. ”
    1. voyaka uh
      voyaka uh 19 November 2015 11: 09 New
      0
      "Having become a ruler, a wise person always relied on gifted people,
      which he gathered around himself, uniting their will and coordinating efforts "////

      Bel-Ko-tzu is Confucius, probably?

      Who is the quote about? as applied to oil, gifted is Sechin and Co.? smile
    2. padded jacket
      padded jacket 19 November 2015 12: 55 New
      +1
      Quote: vladimirvn
      Strong Iran is more profitable for us

      Russia and Iran: security cooperation
  7. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 19 November 2015 10: 42 New
    +1
    "The US and its allies in Europe plan to convince Russia to abandon cooperation with Iran on the issue of supporting the Syrian government, the Wall Street Journal reports. //Vz.ru/news/2015/11/19/778962.html
    1. padded jacket
      padded jacket 19 November 2015 11: 01 New
      +2
      Our country needs a strong and prosperous Iran, not only as a good neighbor, but also as a counterweight to the aggressive bloc supporting terrorism in the region led by the United States represented by Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others.
      And do not forget that
      - firstly, the world's daily oil production is 30 million tons of oil and Iran’s reserves of 30-40 million tons against this background look just ridiculous
      - secondly, while sanctions were imposed against Iran by Western countries, Iran was seized by another enemy of ours (and a friend of the United States and Israel, by the way) Saudi Arabia so that it should reduce production and return Iran to its share of the oil market.
      By the way, Putin’s visit to Iran will soon take place and now Rogozin is there on a visit preparing the ground for new contracts between our country and Iran.
  8. Vladimir 1964
    Vladimir 1964 19 November 2015 11: 17 New
    0
    At the same time, Russian businessmen and the government are counting on staking out part of the Iranian domestic market for the implementation of a number of large projects. If successful, losses in the oil and gas market can be offset by profits in other areas.

    This phrase for some reason causes a slight ironic smile. For besides Rosatom, there are no more serious players in our country who could compensate for losses from the trade in hydrocarbons. So Iran’s entry into the hydrocarbon market threatens us with yet another budget loss. By the way, the fable about the licensed release of Kamaz in Iran is a fable, according to Iranian media reports, it is clear that Kamaz is not even in the tender project. I have not forgotten about the “defense industry”, my colleagues, but there is a rather interesting situation here, namely that Iran for some reason “looks intensely” at China as a partner in the trade in hydrocarbons and weapons. In some ways, of course, we are competitive in geological exploration and oil production, but we must be realistic and understand that there are also more capable ones. Therefore, of course, you should not lose time in any case, so that again you would not be faced with the fact of a "suddenly begun winter", for which we are always not ready.
    Something like that, Dear colleagues. hi
    1. padded jacket
      padded jacket 19 November 2015 11: 59 New
      +2
      Quote: Vladimir 1964
      This phrase for some reason causes a slight ironic smile. For besides Rosatom, there are no more serious players in our country who could compensate for losses from the trade in hydrocarbons.

      You don't seem to know anything at all, or are you making up lol
      Iran will acquire equipment and aircraft from Russia for $ 21 billion
      Tehran and Moscow have entered into a series of contracts for the supply of Iran with Russian aerospace equipment in the amount of $ 21 billion.
      The agreements were signed on the sidelines of the MAKS-2015 air show, which took place at the end of August in Zhukovsky near Moscow.
      http://www.ng.ru/news/518540.html
      Russia will create a satellite for remote sensing of land for Iran
      The Russian corporation VNIIEM, NPK BARL and the Iranian company Boniyan Danesh Sharg signed an agreement at the MAKS air show to develop, create and subsequently operate a space remote sensing (ERS) space system in the interests of Iran.
      http://tass.ru/kosmos/2210115
      Iran is going to cooperate with Russia in the production of fighter jets
      Iran and Russia are negotiating joint production of fighter jets, Islamic Republic Defense Minister Hossein Dehkan said in Tehran on Tuesday
      Russia agreed to cooperate with Iran in the "joint design and production" of a combat aircraft, learning about the capabilities of the Islamic Republic, Iranian media reported.
      "In the field of fighter manufacturing, we will not carry out such cooperation with any country other than Russia," the minister stressed.
      http://www.interfax.ru/world/461055
      Iran negotiates with Russia on two types of military aircraft
      The Russian and Iranian defense ministries are actively negotiating Tehran’s purchase of two types of military aircraft, Iran’s vice president of science and technology Sorenta Sattari said in an interview with Kommersant following a visit to the MAKS air show and talks with senior Russian officials.
      http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/2015/08/28/606639-iran-voennih-samoletov

      About Iranian oil - the opinion of non-homegrown financiers and "cool" analysts from Israel laughing and an expert from the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences:
      1. Vladimir 1964
        Vladimir 1964 19 November 2015 20: 28 New
        0
        Quote: quilted jacket
        You don't seem to know anything at all, or are you making up

        No, Vatnik, of course I am not aware, I do not watch our news, only the “Channel” channel, excuse me. belay
        1. padded jacket
          padded jacket 19 November 2015 21: 38 New
          0
          Quote: Vladimir 1964
          No, Vatnik, of course I’m not in the know, I don’t watch our news, only the “Match” channel

          It’s a pity to choose all the time and read the press at least on the Internet, otherwise you’ll fall into “ignorance” smile
          Quote: Vladimir 1964
          excuse me.

          Well, there’s nothing to forgive you for yourself by your own “ignorance” and harm yourself.
  9. marinier
    marinier 19 November 2015 11: 31 New
    +1
    Good time of the day!
    4nestly speaking news ozada4ila.Is the interests of Iran and Russia not cut short,
    in sales and the price of energy resources. To sazaleniu biuzet of Russia, 75% form
    is selling prodaz of carbon-hydrogens. And Iran, for several desiotic years, was under pressure,
    sanctions. And they will sell their oil and gas in rafts to dumped prices.
    Jesus, how is it to say in Russia ???
  10. iouris
    iouris 19 November 2015 12: 57 New
    0
    Obama will lift sanctions from Iran. Iranian oil will flood the market. So what? We must buy Iranian oil, and preserve our fields. Airplanes, tanks and air defense systems in exchange for oil.
    1. traveler
      traveler 19 November 2015 20: 17 New
      +2
      But does Iran need so many planes, tanks, etc., a piece of iron? They seem to have decided to fight the United States and Israel.
      if the Persians are not fools, they are more likely to buy machines for petrodollars and licenses will be useful. and we have them dumb, all the bourgeois.
  11. Bob
    Bob 19 November 2015 23: 23 New
    +1
    Factors of destabilization of the oil market and lower oil prices:
    1) The Saudis are actively dumping, and do not even try to reduce the volume of oil produced, but, on the contrary, increase production in order to secure for themselves a shortfall in income.
    2) Russia is also forced to lower hydrocarbon prices so as not to lose the market, while also preserving large volumes of production in order to support foreign exchange earnings and state revenues
    3) The United States lifts restrictions on Iran to sell oil (3 world oil producer, given the potential for oil production)
    4) The United States removes restrictions on the sale of American oil in the world market (apparently in order to influence the price of oil supply in the world)
    5) The United States has created a strategic oil reserve in the country to protect itself from possible shocks in the oil market similar to those that were in the 1970s after the Arab-Israeli war and the embargo imposed by Arab states on oil supplies to Western countries.
    Conclusion: very soon, the oil market and, accordingly, the entire world economic system will experience deep shocks, the market will literally be flooded with black gold, and gold will depreciate (as it was in 1985), which will cause countries to spill over.
    I think Russia's "partners" are not weakly prepared for events of the 1970s scale, when the Middle East became the decisive lever in international politics that led the United States to world domination. Which once again proves that this crisis (like the previous ones) is controllable and artificially imposed.
  12. Bob
    Bob 19 November 2015 23: 24 New
    -1
    "Who controls the oil (prices, trade, cash equivalents of oil) that owns the world" It is the United States that seeks to control the world. Russia, unfortunately, does not control this market. But hydrocarbons are everything for the Russian Federation, this is its “golden cow”, due to which everyone is fed and the oligarchs and the nomenclature and something people got, or rather its small part, due to the introduced distribution mechanism, it would seem common national wealth.
    Obviously, one of the problems of the USSR, and now of the Russian Federation, was (is) the "oil needle", which did not allow (em) to go on to solve the pressing problems of developing the economy of individual industries and the national economic complex as a whole, and this in turn caused (there is) a lag in the development of science and technology, weakened (is) investment in the economy and led (it) to its technological and economic, social and then political decline (the collapse of the country into parts that occurred as a result of the will of the people, it then just spoke in a referendum for the preservation of the USSR, and as a result of the split of the elite into parts, its betrayal of the interests of the state and people). Russia faces the same problem as the USSR.
    By the way, other problems of the USSR are also present in Russia, unfortunately, namely, the militarization of the economy and the entry into a remote military conflict that could drag on indefinitely (Afghanistan), the betrayal of the elite, the Western information attack on culture and mass consciousness, economic warfare West, structural imbalances in an economy with low labor productivity and high costs, demonization of the regime of government, etc. Acting in the system, they cannot but resonate and do not affect the state of the entire state extremely negatively.
    I conclude that the lesson has not been learned ... The "deuce" score, received relatively recently, again threatens a national catastrophe to fall on the heads of ordinary citizens.
    And well, there’s absolutely no time to solve at least part of these problems. Time is rapidly shrinking to the hour set by our "partners" - the market can rush at any time. We’ll wait, but how!? ... I suppose everyone knows what is fraught with the Russian economy for lowering the price of a barrel of oil below $ 22,5 / barrel !? It is this value that international “experts” have designated as critical for the Russian economy, after which it will collapse. And how likely is this under current conditions ?! I think this is 100% likely. What else are we waiting for !? Aw ... Hey, you up there. I say this without gloating, but it’s a shame for the power, as well as for the economy (raw materials appendage), and for health care (decline), as well as for education (degradation). What the effective managers did with the country, I’m all about the same Serdyukovs, Vasilyevs, Livanovs, Surkovs, Kudrins, Nabiulins, Siluanovs and so on and so forth. Of course they can’t be reached, they are untouchable and not breakable, a complete liberal puddle.