Military Review

Is Spain Splitting?

On Monday, the Parliament of Catalonia approved a resolution endorsing the "process of creating an independent state." The Catalans are set to become independent from Spain by 2017. The “road map” of supporters of independence is clearly defined steps: to form state structures and develop a constitution. It also indicates that the Parliament of Catalonia will not obey the Spanish government institutions. Parliamentarians are seriously talking about the imminent creation of a “just” Catalan Republic.

On November 9, the Catalan Parliament approved a resolution proclaiming the beginning of separation from Spain and the creation of a new state (republic). The resolution was adopted in heated debates: 63 parliamentarians opposed its adoption, 72 MP supported it.

The implementation of the plan outlined in the document should begin in the next thirty days with the creation of bills for separation from Spain and ensuring the security of the process.

As for the reaction of the Government of Spain, it declared in the Constitutional Court that it would challenge the decision of the Catalan Parliament to establish an independent state. This was stated by the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, reported "Vesti.Ekonomika" with reference to western sources.

Last week, the Spanish Constitutional Court rejected a statement by opponents of the separation of Catalonia: they demanded that the provincial parliament be banned from discussing and voting on the resolution on independence. However, the judges decided that it would not be possible to prohibit the discussion, having declared it illegal in advance. The resolution can be adopted, and then the government will be able to challenge it in the same Constitutional Court.

The Constitutional Court is expected to consider the resolution and prohibit the enforcement of provisions that violate Spanish law. Such a decision can be easily predicted on the basis of previous court decisions. As reminded "Vedomosti", in November last year, a survey was conducted in Catalonia, in which 2,25 million people participated. of 5,4 million, residing in the province and eligible to vote. A positive answer to both questions (“Do you want Catalonia to become a state?” And, if so, then “Do you want this state to be independent?”) Gave 80,72% of respondents. 10,11% were in favor of statehood without independence. For the preservation of the current order favored 4,55%. In June 2015, the Spanish Constitutional Court declared the 2014 poll unlawful.

Europe and the United States do not welcome the Catalan decision. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy noted earlier that the world community, in particular German Chancellor Angela Merkel, British Prime Minister David Cameron and US President Barack Obama, spoke out against the split of Spain. Mariano Rajoy himself, reminds "Expert", he said more than once that he would not allow "the elimination of Spain as a single state." According to him, "the law will be respected in the country." In the case of a decision on independence by Catalonia, the prime minister promised that such a decision "will be immediately appealed to the Constitutional Court and accordingly annulled as contrary to the constitution."

In the Parliament of Catalonia, where the idea of ​​secession from Spain won, the mood is different.

“This is an opportunity to start creating a modern and fair state,” the newspaper quotes "Sight" parliamentary representative of the coalition “Together for yes” (Junts pel Si) Raul Romevu.

“The time has come to write a new chapter in stories of this country. Today is a day of breaking with the regime that buries our dreams and legality, ”said Anna Gabrielle, representative of the Party“ Candidacy of the People’s Unity ”(CUP), echoes him.

However, there is opposition in parliament. Members of the People’s Party (the ruling party in the rest of Spain) voted against the resolution.

“Do you really think that the majority of the Catalans support this separatist process?” Asked the representative of this party, Javier García Albiol. According to him, the resolution is "an operation for the personal and collective salvation of Mr. Arthur Mas." Thereby he hinted at the scandals around the leader of the separatists and the chairman of the government of autonomy A. Mas, who is suspected of corruption.

Alexander Chichin, an associate professor at the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, an expert on Spain, believes that the resolution introduces a revolutionary situation in Catalonia. Premier Rahoy failed to act in advance. “The Constitutional Court recognizes all this as unenforceable, but the Catalan Parliament has already warned that it will not obey any legal decisions of the Madrid authorities,” the expert told Vzglyad. “Now Catalonia is already outside the zone of Spanish jurisdiction.” And it goes to acts of disobedience on the part of Barcelona.

There is a different opinion. The scientific director of the German-Russian Forum, Alexander Rahr, is convinced that the Catalans will change their mind when Brussels intervenes in the conflict. “Obviously, the Catalans want to leave Spain, there are no questions here,” the political analyst told the publication. - But do they want to leave the European Union? It is impossible to leave Spain and remain in the EU. The European Union will intervene. It is absolutely obvious. He will do everything to show the economic, financial, political and social advantages of being in the union. If some kind of minimal destabilization occurs, Madrid will not act alone. ”

Similar examples of preservation in the state of oscillating territories are in recent history. “For example, Scotland, precisely because of the subsidies, the EU decided to remain in the UK,” the expert reminded. - At the moment I do not see any attempts to forcibly secede from Spain. This is a political desire, but not a forceful one. The only option when separatist sentiment will intensify is if the EU is overwhelmed by a monstrous economic crisis. In Europe, there is a separatist sentiment not only in Scotland, but also in Tyrol (Italy), for example. Or Basques in the same Spain. Some even created terrorist organizations. But I predict that Spain will avoid radicalization. ”

But Chichin believes that a new phase of confrontation is possible already this week. “They will try themselves as a new state,” the expert told the publication. - Mas promised to adopt a new constitution within a year and a half. He has nowhere to retreat. If not him, then it will be done by someone else, so Mas will go to the end. Whereas in Madrid there is no that figure that would unite everyone. ” And it will remain "only sympathize with Spain, which can begin to crumble like a house of cards."

Pretty bold prediction, add on my own. First of all, neither Madrid, nor Brussels will allow Catalonia to break away. The tools of suggestion will be used very different - from the recognition of the decisions of the Parliament of Catalonia as illegal (contrary to the Spanish constitution) to the "weaning" of the new state from the European Union.

Secondly, in Catalonia, the opposition is quite strong in favor of “united Spain”. Recently, the leaders of two Catalan banks, which are included in the elite top five financial organizations in Spain, said they did not support the idea of ​​independence of Catalonia. The statement of two bankers, notes IA "REGNUM", in fact, is a demonstration of the position of the entire Spanish banking sector in relation to the separatist aspirations of Arthur Mas. (It’s not by chance that supporters of separation from Spain think so intensely about “ensuring the security of the process.” One of the security components of the “just state” is just financial.)

Thirdly, in the Parliament of Catalonia there are a lot of opponents of the department (the 63 member of the parliament was against the adoption of the resolution), who will certainly put bites in the wheels of the separatists.

How would Catalonia itself do not split!

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
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  1. oleg-gr
    oleg-gr 11 November 2015 06: 54
    Europe gets another round of crushing. The plans of the European Commission are being implemented. Scotland refused, so Catalonia tries ...
    1. Vend
      Vend 11 November 2015 10: 01
      Quote: oleg-gr
      Europe gets another round of crushing. The plans of the European Commission are being implemented. Scotland refused, so Catalonia tries ...

      Well, Scotland just a ride. Voting took place with obvious violations and fraud. The main thing is that the Catalans should not be shod.
      1. subbtin.725
        subbtin.725 11 November 2015 11: 36
        will certainly put sticks in wheels separatists.

        Notice, and no one is bombed.
    2. War and Peace
      War and Peace 11 November 2015 12: 44
      Similar examples of the preservation of oscillating territories within the state are available in recent history. “For example, Scotland, because of EU subsidies, decided to remain part of the UK,” the expert recalled.

      what the hell? if Scotland leaves Britain, will they cease to be Europeans?
  2. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 11 November 2015 06: 59
    Europe and US Catalan decision not welcome

    Of course not welcome. This is not Yugoslavia, which was simply torn to pieces, and even the originally Serbian Kosovo was given to the Albanians. Around double standards. But the process is launched not only in Spain, but also in Britain. Therefore, sooner or later, but it will happen, no matter how it is opposed.
    1. BMP-2
      BMP-2 12 November 2015 01: 32
      Will the year 1936 repeat in Spain? That is the question...
  3. 3officer
    3officer 11 November 2015 07: 53
    Yes, this is not serious. The Catalans have so much fun .. it’s boring to them. Everything will end, just like with Scotland.
  4. parusnik
    parusnik 11 November 2015 07: 53
    As for the reaction of the Spanish government, it stated in the Constitutional Court that it would challenge the decision of the Catalan parliament to create an independent state.... How interesting .. there will be no anti-terrorist operation zones, air bombardments, artillery shelling, punitive detachments .. And Madrid doesn’t seem to be bombing, like Belgrade was bombed, forcing to recognize Kosovo .. But this is Europe, it’s possible there .. But with so it’s impossible for the Slavs ... And thanks to the Catalans, they created a headache for the EU and NATO .. ​​and the USA
    1. venaya
      venaya 11 November 2015 08: 32
      Quote: parusnik
      And thanks to the Catalans, they created a headache for the EU and NATO .. ​​and the USA

      And what a booool !!! Yes, kissing them for that is not enough. Now all the legal grounds for non-recognition of the seceded republics and regions are flying. Of course a dangerous incident, but the one "who does not risk ...". Let's see how they will get out.
  5. ImPerts
    ImPerts 11 November 2015 07: 55
    Europe and US Catalan decision not welcome

    Will have to come to terms.
    Or start hostilities)))
  6. Wolka
    Wolka 11 November 2015 08: 12
    a paradox of the situation, the constitution prohibits, and the people demand, so what is the primary thing, a people who want to live in a new way, or a constitution that the people also adopted at one time ...
  7. dzvero
    dzvero 11 November 2015 08: 22
    In principle, the problem can be solved with a carrot and a stick. Pranik - the federalization of the country with the recognition by Madrid not only of Catalonia, but also of Basque, and leaving only foreign policy. But it seems that Madrid is not ready to lose large cash flows. Apparently Madrid went straight to the whip. If in the future he still proposes a federal option, then it will be regarded as a retreat and all interested parties will achieve full sovereignty.
    There is another interesting point - if Catalonia seceded without the consent of Madrid, then Spain will have an unresolved territorial dispute with its neighbor. In this case, should Spain leave NATO before solving the problem?
    1. Sergej1972
      Sergej1972 11 November 2015 12: 37
      In fact, in federations, the government is not only engaged in foreign policy. What, in the USA, India, Germany, Austria, Brazil, the federal government does not deal with issues of domestic policy, socio-economic development? In any normal federation, federal laws take precedence over the laws of entities, there is a single legal, financial system, a single citizenship, a single legislation on the rights and freedoms of citizens, a single political space.
      The most interesting thing is that in practice the autonomous regions of Spain (and all of Spain consists entirely of autonomous regions) have more rights than the subjects of the federation in most federal states. But officially Spain is considered a unitary state.
  8. Dan Slav
    Dan Slav 11 November 2015 10: 49
    Therefore, Britain is from the EU and is trying to jump out.
    They have Ireland, there will still be Flanders.
    Buffavia can also separate. Let them share.
  9. Obolensky
    Obolensky 11 November 2015 11: 34
    Another round of history? Interesting. Actually as a state, Spain was formed in the second half of the 15th century. Before that, about "united Spain" did not hear. As far as I remember, then practically all of Europe was small, medium and relatively large fragmented states, headed by their king, duke, count, etc.

    Now just the reverse process is going on, that's all. At first, the pendulum of time was at the unification of states, now it is beginning to lean in the other direction. Actually, what did united Europe want? Napoleon did not succeed. Hitler too. Now the European Union. But they are all there, in the European Parliament apparently forget that each country is individual. On various aspects. And now they are trying to equalize everyone. But as usual, there is someone else - more equal or more equal (?!).

    So, in essence, the United Europe project has failed. Pieces are already falling off. It's another matter whether Catalonia, Scotland, or some other state - the rulers of a united Europe will do everything to prevent a split from happening. By any means. If at least one new state appears on the map of Europe, which has escaped from the democratic camp of Europe, the project of a united Europe can be given up.
    1. Doctorleg
      Doctorleg 11 November 2015 17: 12
      Only Catalonia does not want to break out of the democratic camp of Europe. like Scotland. They both wanted to stay in the EEC, and the central government threatened that they would not be allowed.
  10. chunga-changa
    chunga-changa 11 November 2015 12: 11
    Get some kind of "extended autonomy". And then where to go? As they were in the EU and will remain, unless the Catalan officials will "hang out beautifully" in Brussels.
    1. Sergej1972
      Sergej1972 11 November 2015 12: 38
      They already have a very broad autolomy.
      1. Doctorleg
        Doctorleg 11 November 2015 17: 13
        Quote: Sergej1972
        They already have a very broad autolomy.

        More than in the regions of the federal state of Russia
  11. Selevc
    Selevc 11 November 2015 12: 38
    In the 90s there was a fairly stable stereotype that monarchy states were more stable and stable than republic states ... So what now? In the British monarchy, the Scottish crisis, the Spanish monarchy on the verge of a split of the country ... Life itself refutes the views of conservative monarchists ...
  12. Sergej1972
    Sergej1972 11 November 2015 13: 00
    Little help. In addition to Catalonia, Catalan is spoken in Valencia, on the Balearic Islands. That is, in the three autonomous regions of Spain. True, not all residents of Valencia and the Balearic Islands consider themselves Catalans. Plus there are areas of the Catalans in France and even on the Italian island of Sardinia. And in the dwarf state of Andorra, too, live, for the most part, the Catalans.
    In the autonomous region of Catalonia there are territories with a non-Catalan majority, and even historically not Catalan.
    On the other hand, part of the Spanish Catalans live scattered throughout Spain. In Catalonia, part of the population come from other regions of the country. Part of the non-Catalans of Catalonia also stands for independence. But at the same time, not all Catalans of Catalonia are supporters of independence. In general, everything is complicated there.
  13. Rastas
    Rastas 11 November 2015 16: 10
    I do not understand too much the cries of those who rejoice at the possible secession of Catalonia. And what are the advantages for Russia? Catalonia, like Scotland, said they would remain in the EU, so what difference would there be if Spain or Spain and Catalonia were united.
  14. Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 11 November 2015 19: 06
    I didn’t even think up to the end --- the smaller the country, the less it can withstand black refugees. And here the size of the countries decreases .... And the refugees are not far away. There were moors in Spain.
  15. Hlyneope
    Hlyneope 12 November 2015 01: 36
    With such a split in Catalonia itself, there can be no talk of any independence. Plus, Madrid has all the cards up its sleeves. Since the Catalan resolution is contrary to the constitution, this gives Spain full both moral and legal right, in the event of a real attempt to secede from Spain, to act from a position of strength, and Spain is likely to act from this position, because if it loses Catalonia, a similar situation may arise with the Basques (and they are much more radical), and Spain cannot afford to lose two regions at once. And since Catalonia was split, and no serious forces would hinder the entry of troops. Moreover, the already mentioned "renunciation" of the EU. Catalonia will not be independent, it will not be able to "independence", will not pull.
  16. deleter24
    deleter24 12 November 2015 14: 18
    Enlighten, please, why does Catalonia want to secede from Spain? Is it oppressed there, like Scotland in England?
  17. RoTTor
    RoTTor 12 November 2015 18: 38
    Ukrainians will help to organize anti-terrorist operation