Military Review

Ukraine is said to have to put up and live with Putin ("Bloomberg", USA)

Ukraine is said to have to put up and live with Putin ("Bloomberg", USA)Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko can not understand that the West supports him on certain conditions. And now the leaders of France and Germany told him about it quite definitely and concretely: from that moment the responsibility for the implementation of the cease-fire agreement in the east of Ukraine rests entirely with Poroshenko, and not with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Going to Paris to negotiate with French President Francois Hollande, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Putin, Poroshenko was belligerent. He had just delivered an energetic speech at the United Nations, which was entirely devoted to the devastating raid of Russia on his country. His interior minister, Arsen Avakov, boasted that the Ukrainian National Guard “finally” got American sniper rifles and anti-tank grenades.

Another war of Ukraine

French diplomat Pierre Morel, who maintains close contacts with Moscow and pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine, prepared a plan for the Paris meeting, which four leaders were to approve. In accordance with the proposal by Morel, Ukraine should adopt a special law, which sets out the rules for holding local elections in the regions of Ukraine held by the rebels. It was such a clever way to defuse a time bomb laid down under the February Minsk agreement on a cease-fire. Then Russia and its proxies from the east of Ukraine agreed to hold elections under Ukrainian laws by the end of the year, but they were clearly not ready to hold them in accordance with the current legislation, which did not distinguish between the rebel regions of Ukraine and all the rest. They threatened to hold their own elections in mid-October, which could have caused the resumption of war.

However, Poroshenko brushed aside the proposal of the French diplomat, calling it "Mr. Morel's personal opinion." He went to Paris to demand that Russia observe the Minsk ceasefire agreement, cancel the so-called “fictitious elections” and return to the eastern border’s control of Ukraine by the end of the year.

He underestimated the firm intention of France and Germany to remove from the road the Ukrainian problem that was confused under their feet, making it the most effective way. After five-hour negotiations in the Elysee Palace, the Morel plan was imposed on Ukraine in a form that is more beneficial to Putin. First, Ukraine must develop a special law on elections in cooperation with Moscow and with the separatists. Then she will have to accept him and amnesty separatist leaders so that they can run for local legislative bodies. Elections must be held in the 80-day period after the adoption of the law. Then, if international observers declare them acceptable, Ukraine should regain control of the border with Russia. After the talks, Hollande told reporters that this year is unlikely to happen, because a draft law must be drafted and thoroughly prepared for the elections.

This is Poroshenko's slap. From a political point of view, it is almost impossible for him to push a draft law on elections approved by Moscow through parliament. Poroshenko had difficulty making even a modest amendment to the constitution, which gives a special status to the rebel-controlled regions. When the voting took place, riots broke out at the parliament building and the police suffered losses. An attempt to convince Rada to accept Moscow’s favorable election rules could lead to a split in the Ukrainian ruling coalition and even to extraordinary elections, which would result in a composition of parliament that would be less favorable to Poroshenko.

“Paris once again confirmed that in protecting the national interests of Ukraine, Ukrainians have no allies but themselves,” complained bitterly on the Liga website. net commentator Peter Shuklinov. - Berlin and Paris decided to play the role of arbitrators. Neither want to take decisive action to end the war in the center of Europe. ”

Putin has not only received a delay in the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Now he will be happy to watch Poroshenko wriggle and writhe, trying to soften the Morel plan - or not trying very hard to get the approval of the electoral law. In any case, the failure of these efforts will give Putin a more or less permanent frozen conflict that will divert Ukrainian resources and destabilize the Poroshenko government. And if the ball remains on the side of Ukraine, economic sanctions against Russia can also be lifted - after all, Putin did so last month to make the situation in the war zone calm.

At the same time, Poroshenko will have problems in relations with European leaders, who will be watching his intentions with even greater suspicion.

From the point of view of Merkel and Hollande, Poroshenko should be interested in reincorporating the rebel-controlled areas into Ukraine. This means that there will be a serious struggle in the elections, and in the event of an almost certain defeat, he will have to work with the winners. It is European-style; but attempts to secure external support for the defeat of the separatists are not European-style, especially now, when Europe is full of its own problems.

Poroshenko can count on significant support only if he is willing and determined to perform difficult actions that bring Ukraine closer to Western models of government. This requires the attainment of difficult political compromises and the implementation of painful reforms. So far, the Ukrainian president does not show any special results on any of these fronts.

His country is still hopelessly corrupt and in the grip of an internecine struggle between oligarchic clans, although the Ukrainian government has already created five new anti-corruption bodies. In the absence of true deregulation and tax liberalization, economic growth will continue to be unattainable. The International Monetary Fund has just lowered forecasts for a decline in Ukraine from June nine to 11 percent. The Ukrainian government is losing its war against mismanagement, over-regulation and embezzlement.

That is exactly what Putin needs. Making a bet on elections in the east of Ukraine (if they take place), he is not counting on field commanders, but on the local oligarchs who ruled this region before the “revolution of dignity” 2014 of the year. Through them, he hopes to exert an economic and political influence on Kiev. And he has nowhere to hurry: time is on Putin’s side, not Poroshenko’s.

The views of the author may not reflect the views of the editors, Bloomberg LP and its owners.
41 comment
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. svp67
    svp67 8 October 2015 05: 40 New
    Here is the best evidence of what is happening in Ukraine ...
    1. Finches
      Finches 8 October 2015 06: 10 New
      France and Germany are respected guys, but while the United States is protecting Petya, there is no need to talk about any really working agreements! The GDP understands this very well - therefore, it shows in Syria to the Americans that it is not so simple, driving those into the corner, but on the other hand, pin ... we even manage to make a profit from this! And Profit is the most important fetish of those monsters who are behind the backs of the leaders of America, even if for the sake of it it will be necessary to plunge the Earth into the apocalypse of nuclear war!
      1. hrych
        hrych 8 October 2015 06: 38 New
        Quote: Finches
        And Profit is the most important fetish

        This man clearly explained: "We are penniless ... we are penniless ... we don’t take pennies from us ..."
        1. Aandrewsir
          Aandrewsir 8 October 2015 11: 08 New
          When this ... politician in the ring was brainwashed, he thought about "pennies." I remembered the word, but I forgot what it is and what it is for ...
        2. Prisoner
          Prisoner 8 October 2015 18: 56 New
          Give us money, no, don’t give. Better give me only. laughing The mayor, however, is metropolitan.
      2. Ingvar 72
        Ingvar 72 8 October 2015 09: 46 New
        Quote: Finches
        but while the United States is protecting Petya,

        Exactly. And just today, the US Congress approved a half-life of lethal weapons in Ukraine.
    2. hrych
      hrych 8 October 2015 06: 43 New
      At one time, for our sinking country, there were a humiliating handout, the so-called Bush legs. The Maidan people did much better - leftovers from the table of the white (sorry, no longer white) hosts, it’s also not in vain ...
    3. Tanker55
      Tanker55 8 October 2015 07: 39 New
      Thank you for clipping their HaH Uhraina !!! The funny thing is at the end of the video and it has already happened !!! Take a look. lol
      1. marlin1203
        marlin1203 8 October 2015 10: 12 New
        Poor Petya ... now, like a cow in a bomb bay. Neither there nor back. Run Petya, run! ..
        1. aszzz888
          aszzz888 8 October 2015 11: 40 New
          Neither there nor back. Run Petya, run! ..

          Better to loop right away ... laughing
    4. Volzhanin
      Volzhanin 8 October 2015 10: 27 New
      Shit and crap-the Ukrainians already seem to have no other words and thoughts? ...
      How do they raise children!?!
    5. APASUS
      APASUS 8 October 2015 20: 14 New
      Quote: svp67
      Here is the best evidence of what is happening in Ukraine ...

      Especially nothing has been said. Now the Ukrainian press is concerned about how to cover the drain of Poroshenko and give this action the right vector in the minds and the significance of its receivers.
  2. evil partisan
    evil partisan 8 October 2015 05: 41 New
    If the “Morel’s plan” is adopted as the basis (even for a while ...), then Ukraine will be forced to pay meekly all gas supplied to the DPR / LPR and not paid by Ukraine from April 2014 to the present, as well as Ukraine will have to repay all debts on benefits and pensions and the problem of restoring destroyed objects will loom to the full, which, in my opinion, will require an astronomical amount. It seems to me that the policy pursued by the GDP in relation to Ukraine can be characterized by the phrase: "For everything you have to pay a baby!"
  3. venaya
    venaya 8 October 2015 05: 43 New
    Yes, it’s difficult for Khokhlov, they still can’t understand that they live on the “Great Russian Plain”, and in no way can they separate and sail to the shores of the desired America. The Swedes, for example, have a wide Baltic and can afford to please Russia as they please, almost with impunity, and this should take into account where they actually live.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 8 October 2015 05: 54 New
      Quote: venaya
      , and in no way can they separate and sail to the shores of the coveted Americas

      Why, because they were able to dig up the Black Sea, now let the river be made the widest in the world along the border with Russia. Delov is for them.
      1. Tatarus
        Tatarus 8 October 2015 06: 01 New
        Do not pull. From a long jump, my legs were pumped up, but everything above the belt atrophied. They will either not hold the shovel, or they will not realize which side. laughing
    2. vtnsk
      vtnsk 8 October 2015 06: 14 New
      Quote: venaya
      Swedes, for example, have a wide Baltic and can afford to please Russia as they please, almost with impunity,

      After launching the Caliber from the Caspian through ISIS, the Swedes should think about their behavior and draw the appropriate conclusions ... hi
    3. EGOrkka
      EGOrkka 8 October 2015 06: 56 New
      hard Khokhlov

      Ukrainians were in Ukraine, and in ruins .... Ukrainians (Khalui hollow ovskie selling bedding) and dill (vegetables) ...
      1. venaya
        venaya 8 October 2015 07: 17 New
        Quote: EGOrkka
        ... Ukrainians were in Ukraine, and in ruins .... Ukrainians (Khalui hollow ovskie selling bedding) and dill (vegetables) ...

        I agree, I will be more attentive to the expressions, correct. Still, in the current “Ukraine”, according to Glazyev, up to 90% of Russians remain, this must always be taken into account. By the way, as I noticed, there are not a few of them in Sweden.
      2. Penetrator
        Penetrator 8 October 2015 07: 25 New
        Quote: EGOrkka
        yes dill (vegetables) ...

        I will correct it. Dill is a plant, and annual. smile
  4. Name
    Name 8 October 2015 05: 44 New
    Apparently, Ruin and her leadership are tired of European governments with their begging, the EU is “above the roof” - migrants and sanctions against Russia do not add a good mood, and here Russia in Syria is like a geyrope on the head ...
    1. Azitral
      Azitral 8 October 2015 08: 20 New
      I do not think that Europe was so against ours in Syria. This is the USA some loss of face, and this ... Slippers, popcorn, beer - and enjoy the show.
      1. kotvov
        kotvov 8 October 2015 12: 45 New
        Slippers, popcorn, beer - and enjoy the show. ,,
        yeah, refugees in the yard, enjoy and look around.
  5. Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 8 October 2015 05: 48 New
    Thank you for explaining the political processes. These diplomatic rituals last long. How about people?
    Anyway, I think about the beautiful, fast Crimean version, Regards.
    1. Blondy
      Blondy 8 October 2015 07: 19 New
      Yes, who didn’t let them do it at one time — until now, all of the LPR and the DPR, and with Novorossi one zilch came out.
  6. Denis DV
    Denis DV 8 October 2015 05: 52 New
    Or (as delirium laughing) The United States will run to put up with the Russian Federation holding Poroshenko's head in a gift box, shouting - that's all he is. not we apologize laughing
    1. Igor Polovodov
      Igor Polovodov 8 October 2015 09: 02 New
      In the gift box Roshen, you probably wanted to say!
  7. Tatarus
    Tatarus 8 October 2015 05: 55 New
    Yes, it’s just that Dill has already jumped into Europe, and so they are a little distant. As they say, “That's it, Petenka, you’re a big boy now. You’re giving Russia the teeth. So you’ll figure it out for yourself. Bearded cockroaches are wound up in front of your mom’s folder in the hut, not for your son.”
  8. samarin1969
    samarin1969 8 October 2015 06: 01 New
    “This is exactly what Putin needs. Having bet on elections in eastern Ukraine (if they take place), he does not rely on field commanders, but on local oligarchs who ruled this region until the 2014“ dignity revolution ”. Through them, he hopes to provide economic and political influence on Kiev. And he has nowhere to rush: time is on the side of Putin, not Poroshenko. "

    What a "funny" prospect ... especially for the militias, ordinary residents who survived the shelling ... Putin seeks to wrap Donbass into the hands of "local oligarchs", and the US Congress voted to allocate 300 million for weapons for Ukraine ... Poroshenko entered the taste of pressure on the Russian Federation and will continue to spit on the words of Morel and Hollande ...
    1. vtnsk
      vtnsk 8 October 2015 06: 11 New
      Where did you see in the Donbass (in Lugansk) "local oligarchs"? Who is this?... repeat
      1. Vladimir 1964
        Vladimir 1964 8 October 2015 08: 27 New
        Quote: vtnsk
        Where did you see in the Donbass (in Lugansk) "local oligarchs"? Who is this?...

        And what, Dear vtnsk, Akhmetov’s enterprises do not work in the Donbass? According to our press, they are working quite well for themselves. And even messages slipped that he pays taxes in LDNR.

        Something like this. hi
  9. Siberian1965
    Siberian1965 8 October 2015 06: 06 New
    "This is what GDP needs." I wonder how any mischief..n will know what Putin thinks? What are the wiretaps of Merkel, what are the cyber attacks. And scribblers are not shy. Deb ... you damn it.
  10. vtnsk
    vtnsk 8 October 2015 06: 09 New
    The current so-called "Ukraine" will live poorly, but not for long ... hi
  11. Strezhevchanin
    Strezhevchanin 8 October 2015 06: 12 New
    It is necessary to send a vodka petun, this one, on Slavic babies, they say kosher. To warm up was something.
    1. ssn18
      ssn18 8 October 2015 06: 52 New
      Just do not forget to add cyanide and more.
  12. The comment was deleted.
  13. Obolensky
    Obolensky 8 October 2015 07: 18 New
    Yeah, Poroshenko left alone. He will not cope with his Rada. As soon as he talks about what they’ve accepted, consider not only a political, but possibly a real corpse. No wonder that the Rada demanded a kind of full text of the talks. In general, that is where he is dear. Poroshenko then. He, of course, will try to cheat, but it doesn’t lie. On the one hand, Germany and France. On the other, Russia. On the third - their own "guardians". In general, I think that's all. Almost pat.

    I feel sorry for people. Ordinary people, not horses, but ordinary people. After all, this beast will take its toll again. Blood is possible again.
  14. slizhov
    slizhov 8 October 2015 07: 25 New
    Petya will soon completely suck, however.
    It is important for him to save his life at least for a couple of years.
    What I got up - everything is under the “punishment” of international norms.
  15. sledge
    sledge 8 October 2015 08: 01 New
    Selling Ukrainians did not justify the trust of their overseas and European owners, and now the owners are not interested
  16. rosarioagro
    rosarioagro 8 October 2015 08: 20 New
    "... Having bet on the elections in eastern Ukraine (if they take place), he counts not on field commanders, but on local oligarchs"

    That's why the project "Novorossia" and collapsed
  17. vovan50
    vovan50 8 October 2015 08: 25 New
    Putin does not rely on field commanders, but on the local oligarchs who ruled the region until the 2014 “dignity revolution”.

    It’s bad if this is true. It is necessary to count on popular support, and not on thieves.
  18. Vladimir 1964
    Vladimir 1964 8 October 2015 08: 30 New
    In any case, the failure of these efforts will give Putin a more or less permanent frozen conflict that will divert Ukrainian resources and destabilize the Poroshenko government.

    Dear author, what about the resources of our country, the frozen conflict will not distract?
  19. The comment was deleted.
  20. YaMZ-238
    YaMZ-238 8 October 2015 09: 16 New
    Ukraine will soon cease to exist than it will begin to be friends with Russia .... and all because of some particulars !!!! ((((
  21. akudr48
    akudr48 8 October 2015 10: 04 New
    Talk about Morel’s plan, which they will have to accept under pressure from Germany and France, this may turn out to be an information noise, giving nothing to the Donbass. Since relying on our "partners" from Paris and Berlin, in the hope that they will be as if for Russia, is in no way possible.

    Cheat. Not only Petya will deceive, but also François and Angela. These are all words that the author did not regret, telling what will be and how the heart will calm down ...

    But in the following, the author was definitely not mistaken, below, perhaps, there is another KhPP:

    Having bet on elections in eastern Ukraine (if they take place), he does not rely on field commanders, but on local oligarchs who ruled the region until the 2014 “revolution of dignity”.

    That is, thousands of Russians in the Donbass died so that the Akhmetovs continued to cash in and rule, as if nothing had happened.
    About the people who are in the Donbass, and about the Russians who helped the people, the author did not say a word. They are, as it were, not. But the oligarchs are.

    The oligarch will not bite the oligarch’s eyes, the Russian oligarch UKRO about the oligarch is a friend, comrade and brother.

    This is the essence of the war as presented by the author.
  22. chunga-changa
    chunga-changa 8 October 2015 12: 13 New
    the government is losing its war against mismanagement, overregulation and embezzlement.

    Gold words. Oh, how they relate to us. In a frame under glass and Medvedev on the table, that would constantly see.
  23. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 8 October 2015 12: 33 New
    Overslept in our time the development of events in Ukraine. "We do not need part of Ukraine, we need all of Ukraine." Where is the result? I wonder if anyone answered for this. An example is the reaction of the states to the mistakes of their special services. "The USA will study the mistakes of its intelligence before the start of Russia's operation in Syria"
    Read more at RBC:
    It’s not a sin to learn from the enemy.
  24. 23424636
    23424636 8 October 2015 12: 35 New
    the current rulers will not be able to do anything, only a change of power when people come who are not stained with blood and blame the previous ones for all problems, they will act as Germany with the GDR and there will be peace in Ossetia until 2008
  25. miss
    miss 8 October 2015 13: 29 New
    As a whore did not rest, but as a result, she stood in the indicated position and accepted everything with due respect!
  26. ML-334
    ML-334 8 October 2015 13: 53 New
    Dear forum users! The position of the hand of Peter Alekseevich does not remind anyone of you?
  27. Straight
    Straight 8 October 2015 13: 56 New
    Anyway, our government does not agree here! The question is - why did they fight and shed blood? Why did the children die? For being a part of Bandera, anti-Russian, NATO Ukraine? And this despite the fact that in the Donbass the vast majority of Russians. Give the border of Donbass to the Nazis, glorifying Hitler-completely gone nuts from theft! No Syria will help here - personally, I will consider this a betrayal and then all the dances will look only as an attempt to maintain power and loot, and not patriotic intentions. And I will not be the only one. Well it was necessary to sign such agreements. Who gave the right to decide for the people of Donbass. They don’t put Russians at all, but they’ll make a mistake ... (there was a word here meaning non-traditional sexual orientation)
  28. gukoyan
    gukoyan 8 October 2015 19: 03 New
    Hehe ... all EU included rear) ..
  29. pepel
    pepel 9 October 2015 22: 02 New
    It is unlikely that Putin will fully rely on oligarchs such as Akhmetov. After all, they are used to selling and betraying everything and everyone, this is their essence, otherwise they don’t know how to live.
    Not that support Rotten.