Military Review

Ukraine is told that it needs to put up and live with Putin (Bloomberg, USA)

Ukraine is told that it needs to put up and live with Putin (Bloomberg, USA)Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko can not understand that the West supports him on certain conditions. And now the leaders of France and Germany told him about it quite definitely and concretely: from that moment the responsibility for the implementation of the cease-fire agreement in the east of Ukraine rests entirely with Poroshenko, and not with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Going to Paris to negotiate with French President Francois Hollande, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Putin, Poroshenko was belligerent. He had just delivered an energetic speech at the United Nations, which was entirely devoted to the devastating raid of Russia on his country. His interior minister, Arsen Avakov, boasted that the Ukrainian National Guard “finally” got American sniper rifles and anti-tank grenades.

Another war of Ukraine

French diplomat Pierre Morel, who maintains close contacts with Moscow and pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine, prepared a plan for the Paris meeting, which four leaders were to approve. In accordance with the proposal by Morel, Ukraine should adopt a special law, which sets out the rules for holding local elections in the regions of Ukraine held by the rebels. It was such a clever way to defuse a time bomb laid down under the February Minsk agreement on a cease-fire. Then Russia and its proxies from the east of Ukraine agreed to hold elections under Ukrainian laws by the end of the year, but they were clearly not ready to hold them in accordance with the current legislation, which did not distinguish between the rebel regions of Ukraine and all the rest. They threatened to hold their own elections in mid-October, which could have caused the resumption of war.

However, Poroshenko brushed aside the proposal of the French diplomat, calling it "Mr. Morel's personal opinion." He went to Paris to demand that Russia observe the Minsk ceasefire agreement, cancel the so-called “fictitious elections” and return to the eastern border’s control of Ukraine by the end of the year.

He underestimated the firm intention of France and Germany to remove from the road the Ukrainian problem that was confused under their feet, making it the most effective way. After five-hour negotiations in the Elysee Palace, the Morel plan was imposed on Ukraine in a form that is more beneficial to Putin. First, Ukraine must develop a special law on elections in cooperation with Moscow and with the separatists. Then she will have to accept him and amnesty separatist leaders so that they can run for local legislative bodies. Elections must be held in the 80-day period after the adoption of the law. Then, if international observers declare them acceptable, Ukraine should regain control of the border with Russia. After the talks, Hollande told reporters that this year is unlikely to happen, because a draft law must be drafted and thoroughly prepared for the elections.

This is Poroshenko's slap. From a political point of view, it is almost impossible for him to push a draft law on elections approved by Moscow through parliament. Poroshenko had difficulty making even a modest amendment to the constitution, which gives a special status to the rebel-controlled regions. When the voting took place, riots broke out at the parliament building and the police suffered losses. An attempt to convince Rada to accept Moscow’s favorable election rules could lead to a split in the Ukrainian ruling coalition and even to extraordinary elections, which would result in a composition of parliament that would be less favorable to Poroshenko.

“Paris once again confirmed that in protecting the national interests of Ukraine, Ukrainians have no allies but themselves,” complained bitterly on the Liga website. net commentator Peter Shuklinov. - Berlin and Paris decided to play the role of arbitrators. Neither want to take decisive action to end the war in the center of Europe. ”

Putin has not only received a delay in the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Now he will be happy to watch Poroshenko wriggle and writhe, trying to soften the Morel plan - or not trying very hard to get the approval of the electoral law. In any case, the failure of these efforts will give Putin a more or less permanent frozen conflict that will divert Ukrainian resources and destabilize the Poroshenko government. And if the ball remains on the side of Ukraine, economic sanctions against Russia can also be lifted - after all, Putin did so last month to make the situation in the war zone calm.

At the same time, Poroshenko will have problems in relations with European leaders, who will be watching his intentions with even greater suspicion.

From the point of view of Merkel and Hollande, Poroshenko should be interested in reincorporating the rebel-controlled areas into Ukraine. This means that there will be a serious struggle in the elections, and in the event of an almost certain defeat, he will have to work with the winners. It is European-style; but attempts to secure external support for the defeat of the separatists are not European-style, especially now, when Europe is full of its own problems.

Poroshenko can count on significant support only if he is willing and determined to perform difficult actions that bring Ukraine closer to Western models of government. This requires the attainment of difficult political compromises and the implementation of painful reforms. So far, the Ukrainian president does not show any special results on any of these fronts.

His country is still hopelessly corrupt and in the grip of an internecine struggle between oligarchic clans, although the Ukrainian government has already created five new anti-corruption bodies. In the absence of true deregulation and tax liberalization, economic growth will continue to be unattainable. The International Monetary Fund has just lowered forecasts for a decline in Ukraine from June nine to 11 percent. The Ukrainian government is losing its war against mismanagement, over-regulation and embezzlement.

That is exactly what Putin needs. Making a bet on elections in the east of Ukraine (if they take place), he is not counting on field commanders, but on the local oligarchs who ruled this region before the “revolution of dignity” 2014 of the year. Through them, he hopes to exert an economic and political influence on Kiev. And he has nowhere to hurry: time is on Putin’s side, not Poroshenko’s.

The views of the author may not reflect the views of the editors, Bloomberg LP and its owners.
41 comment

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  1. svp67
    svp67 8 October 2015 05: 40
    Here is the best evidence of what is happening in Ukraine ...
    1. Finches
      Finches 8 October 2015 06: 10
      France and Germany are respected guys, but while the United States is protecting Petya, there is no need to talk about any really working agreements! The GDP understands this very well - therefore, it shows in Syria to the Americans that it is not so simple, driving those into the corner, but on the other hand, pin ... we even manage to make a profit from this! And Profit is the most important fetish of those monsters who are behind the backs of the leaders of America, even if for the sake of it it will be necessary to plunge the Earth into the apocalypse of nuclear war!
      1. hrych
        hrych 8 October 2015 06: 38
        Quote: Finches
        And Profit is the most important fetish

        This person clearly explained everything: "We need a penny ... we don't need a penny ... don't take our pennies ..."
        1. Aandrewsir
          Aandrewsir 8 October 2015 11: 08
          When this ... politician was beaten off in the ring, he thought about "pennies". I remembered the word, but I forgot what it is and what it is for ...
        2. Prisoner
          Prisoner 8 October 2015 18: 56
          Give us money, no, don’t give. Better give me only. laughing The mayor, however, is metropolitan.
      2. Ingvar 72
        Ingvar 72 8 October 2015 09: 46
        Quote: Finches
        but while the United States is protecting Petya,

        Exactly. And just today, the US Congress approved a half-life of lethal weapons in Ukraine.
    2. hrych
      hrych 8 October 2015 06: 43
      At one time, for our sinking country, there were a humiliating handout, the so-called Bush legs. The Maidan people did much better - leftovers from the table of the white (sorry, no longer white) hosts, it’s also not in vain ...
    3. Tanker55
      Tanker55 8 October 2015 07: 39
      Thank you for clipping their HaH Uhraina !!! The funny thing is at the end of the video and it has already happened !!! Take a look. lol
      1. marlin1203
        marlin1203 8 October 2015 10: 12
        Poor Petya ... now like a "cow in a bomb bay". Neither there nor back. Run Petya, run! ..
        1. aszzz888
          aszzz888 8 October 2015 11: 40
          Neither there nor back. Run Petya, run! ..

          Better to loop right away ... laughing
    4. Volzhanin
      Volzhanin 8 October 2015 10: 27
      Shit and crap-the Ukrainians already seem to have no other words and thoughts? ...
      How do they raise children!?!
    5. APASUS
      APASUS 8 October 2015 20: 14
      Quote: svp67
      Here is the best evidence of what is happening in Ukraine ...

      Especially nothing has been said. Now the Ukrainian press is concerned about how to cover the drain of Poroshenko and give this action the right vector in the minds and the significance of its receivers.
  2. evil partisan
    evil partisan 8 October 2015 05: 41
    If the "Morel plan" is adopted as a basis (even for a while ...), then Ukraine will have to resignedly pay for all gas supplied to the DPR / LPR and not paid by Ukraine from April 2014 to the present, as well as Ukraine will have to repay all debts for benefits and pensions, and the problem of restoring destroyed objects will loom in full growth, which, in my opinion, will require an astronomical amount. It seems to me that the policy pursued by the GDP in relation to Ukraine can be characterized by the phrase: "You have to pay for everything, baby!"
  3. venaya
    venaya 8 October 2015 05: 43
    Yes, it is difficult for the Ukrainians, they still cannot understand that they live on the "Great Russian Plain", and there is no way for them to separate and swim to the shores of the longed-for America. The Swedes, for example, have a wide Baltic Sea and can afford to cheat on Russia as they please, with almost impunity. And this must take into account where they actually live.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 8 October 2015 05: 54
      Quote: venaya
      , and in no way can they separate and sail to the shores of the coveted Americas

      Why, because they were able to dig up the Black Sea, now let the river be made the widest in the world along the border with Russia. Delov is for them.
      1. Tatarus
        Tatarus 8 October 2015 06: 01
        Do not pull. From a long jump, my legs were pumped up, but everything above the belt atrophied. They will either not hold the shovel, or they will not realize which side. laughing
    2. vtnsk
      vtnsk 8 October 2015 06: 14
      Quote: venaya
      Swedes, for example, have a wide Baltic and can afford to please Russia as they please, almost with impunity,

      After the launch of "Calibers" from the Caspian by ISIS, the Swedes should think about their behavior and draw appropriate conclusions ... hi
    3. EGOrkka
      EGOrkka 8 October 2015 06: 56
      hard Khokhlov

      Ukrainians were in Ukraine, and in ruins .... Ukrainians (Khalui hollow ovskie selling bedding) and dill (vegetables) ...
      1. venaya
        venaya 8 October 2015 07: 17
        Quote: EGOrkka
        ... Ukrainians were in Ukraine, and in ruins .... Ukrainians (Khalui hollow ovskie selling bedding) and dill (vegetables) ...

        I agree, I will be more attentive to the expressions, I will improve. Still, in the current "Ukraine", according to Glazv, up to 90% are Russians, this must always be taken into account. By the way, as I noticed, there are quite a few of them in Sweden.
      2. Penetrator
        Penetrator 8 October 2015 07: 25
        Quote: EGOrkka
        yes dill (vegetables) ...

        I will correct it. Dill is a plant, and annual. smile
  4. Name
    Name 8 October 2015 05: 44
    Apparently Ruina and her leadership are tired of the heads of European state-TV with their begging, in the EU their problems are "above the roof" - migrants and sanctions against Russia do not add a good mood, and then there is Russia in Syria - like a geyrope on the head ...
    1. Azitral
      Azitral 8 October 2015 08: 20
      I do not think that Europe was so against ours in Syria. This is the USA some loss of face, and this ... Slippers, popcorn, beer - and enjoy the show.
      1. kotvov
        kotvov 8 October 2015 12: 45
        Slippers, popcorn, beer - and enjoy the show. ,,
        yeah, refugees in the yard, enjoy and look around.
  5. Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 8 October 2015 05: 48
    Thank you for explaining the political processes. These diplomatic rituals last long. How about people?
    Anyway, I think about the beautiful, fast Crimean version, Regards.
    1. Blondy
      Blondy 8 October 2015 07: 19
      Yes, who didn’t let them do it at one time — until now, all of the LPR and the DPR, and with Novorossi one zilch came out.
  6. Denis DV
    Denis DV 8 October 2015 05: 52
    Or (as delirium laughing) The United States will run to put up with the Russian Federation holding Poroshenko's head in a gift box, shouting - that's all he is. not we apologize laughing
    1. Igor Polovodov
      Igor Polovodov 8 October 2015 09: 02
      In the gift box Roshen, you probably wanted to say!
  7. Tatarus
    Tatarus 8 October 2015 05: 55
    It's just that Dill has already galloped into Europe, so they have moved a little further. As if they said, "That's it, Petenka, you are a big boy now. You are giving Russia in the teeth. So you will deal with it yourself. Bearded cockroaches have started up in the folder with the mother in the hut, the son has no time for you."
  8. samarin1969
    samarin1969 8 October 2015 06: 01
    “This is exactly what Putin needs. By betting on elections in eastern Ukraine (if they take place), he is counting not on warlords, but on local oligarchs who ruled this region until the 2014“ revolution of dignity ”. Through them he hopes to provide economic and political influence on Kiev. And he has nowhere to rush: time is on Putin's side, not Poroshenko. "

    What a "fun" prospect ... especially for militias, ordinary residents who survived under shelling ... Putin seeks to float Donbass into the hands of "local oligarchs", and the US Congress voted to allocate 300 million for weapons for Ukraine ... Poroshenko entered taste of pressure on the Russian Federation and will continue to spit on the words of Morel and Hollande ...
    1. vtnsk
      vtnsk 8 October 2015 06: 11
      Where did you see "local oligarchs" in Donbass (in Lugansk)? Who is this?... feel
      1. Vladimir 1964
        Vladimir 1964 8 October 2015 08: 27
        Quote: vtnsk
        Where did you see "local oligarchs" in Donbass (in Lugansk)? Who is this?...

        And what, Dear vtnsk, Akhmetov’s enterprises do not work in the Donbass? According to our press, they are working quite well for themselves. And even messages slipped that he pays taxes in LDNR.

        Something like this. hi
  9. Siberian1965
    Siberian1965 8 October 2015 06: 06
    "This is what the GDP needs." I wonder how any shalup..n will know what Putin thinks? What kind of wiretapping Merkel, what kind of cyber attacks. And the scribblers are not shy. Deb..y damn it.
  10. vtnsk
    vtnsk 8 October 2015 06: 09
    The current so-called. "Ukraine" will live in poverty, but not for long ... hi
  11. Strezhevchanin
    Strezhevchanin 8 October 2015 06: 12
    It is necessary to send a vodka petun, this one, on Slavic babies, they say kosher. To warm up was something.
    1. ssn18
      ssn18 8 October 2015 06: 52
      Just do not forget to add cyanide and more.
  12. The comment was deleted.
  13. Obolensky
    Obolensky 8 October 2015 07: 18
    Yeah, they left Poroshenko alone. He cannot cope with his Rada. As soon as he hints that he was accepted, consider not only a political, but possibly a real corpse. It is not for nothing that the Rada demanded the complete text of the negotiations that had passed. In general, that is where he is dear. Poroshenko then. He, of course, will try to cheat, but it will hardly work. On the one hand, Germany and France. On the other, Russia. On the third, their own "guardians". In general, I think that's all. Almost pat.

    I feel sorry for people. Ordinary people, not horses, but ordinary people. After all, this beast will take its toll again. Blood is possible again.
  14. slizhov
    slizhov 8 October 2015 07: 25
    Petya will soon completely suck, however.
    It is important for him to save his life at least for a couple of years.
    What I did - everything is under the "punishment" of international norms.
  15. sledge
    sledge 8 October 2015 08: 01
    Selling Ukrainians did not justify the trust of their overseas and European owners, and now the owners are not interested
  16. rosarioagro
    rosarioagro 8 October 2015 08: 20
    "... Having made a bet on elections in eastern Ukraine (if they take place), he is counting not on field commanders, but on local oligarchs."

    That is why the project "Novorossiya" was closed
  17. vovan50
    vovan50 8 October 2015 08: 25
    Putin does not rely on field commanders, but on the local oligarchs who ruled the region until the 2014 “dignity revolution”.

    It’s bad if this is true. It is necessary to count on popular support, and not on thieves.
  18. Vladimir 1964
    Vladimir 1964 8 October 2015 08: 30
    In any case, the failure of these efforts will give Putin a more or less permanent frozen conflict that will divert Ukrainian resources and destabilize the Poroshenko government.

    Dear author, what about the resources of our country, the frozen conflict will not distract?
  19. The comment was deleted.
  20. YaMZ-238
    YaMZ-238 8 October 2015 09: 16
    Ukraine will soon cease to exist than it will begin to be friends with Russia .... and all because of some particulars !!!! ((((
  21. akudr48
    akudr48 8 October 2015 10: 04
    Conversations about Morel's plan, which the U.K.R.s. will have to accept under pressure from Germany and France, this may turn out to be information noise that does not give Donbass anything. Since it is impossible to rely on our "partners" from Paris and Berlin in the hope that they will be, as it were, for Russia.

    Cheat. Not only Petya will deceive, but also François and Angela. These are all words that the author did not regret, telling what will be and how the heart will calm down ...

    But in the following, the author was definitely not mistaken, below, perhaps, there is another KhPP:

    Having bet on elections in eastern Ukraine (if they take place), he does not rely on field commanders, but on local oligarchs who ruled the region until the 2014 “revolution of dignity”.

    That is, thousands of Russians in the Donbass died so that the Akhmetovs continued to cash in and rule, as if nothing had happened.
    About the people who are in the Donbass, and about the Russians who helped the people, the author did not say a word. They are, as it were, not. But the oligarchs are.

    The oligarch will not bite the oligarch’s eyes, the Russian oligarch UKRO about the oligarch is a friend, comrade and brother.

    This is the essence of the war as presented by the author.
  22. chunga-changa
    chunga-changa 8 October 2015 12: 13
    the government is losing its war against mismanagement, overregulation and embezzlement.

    Gold words. Oh, how they relate to us. In a frame under glass and Medvedev on the table, that would constantly see.
  23. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 8 October 2015 12: 33
    We overslept in due time the development of events in Ukraine. "We don't need part of Ukraine, we need all of Ukraine." Where is the result? So I wonder if anyone has answered for this. An example, the reaction of the states to the mistakes of their special services. "The United States will study the mistakes of its intelligence before the start of Russia's operation in Syria."
    Read more at RBC:
    It’s not a sin to learn from the enemy.
  24. 23424636
    23424636 8 October 2015 12: 35
    the current rulers will not be able to do anything, only a change of power when people come who are not stained with blood and blame the previous ones for all problems, they will act as Germany with the GDR and there will be peace in Ossetia until 2008
  25. miss
    miss 8 October 2015 13: 29
    As a whore did not rest, but as a result, she stood in the indicated position and accepted everything with due respect!
  26. ML-334
    ML-334 8 October 2015 13: 53
    Dear forum users! The position of the hand of Peter Alekseevich does not remind anyone of you?
  27. Straight
    Straight 8 October 2015 13: 56
    Anyway, our government does not agree here! The question is - why did they fight and shed blood? Why did the children die? For being a part of Bandera, anti-Russian, NATO Ukraine? And this despite the fact that in the Donbass the vast majority of Russians. Give the border of Donbass to the Nazis, glorifying Hitler-completely gone nuts from theft! No Syria will help here - personally, I will consider this a betrayal and then all the dances will look only as an attempt to maintain power and loot, and not patriotic intentions. And I will not be the only one. Well it was necessary to sign such agreements. Who gave the right to decide for the people of Donbass. They don’t put Russians at all, but they’ll make a mistake ... (there was a word here meaning non-traditional sexual orientation)
  28. gukoyan
    gukoyan 8 October 2015 19: 03
    Hehe ... all EU included rear) ..
  29. pepel
    pepel 9 October 2015 22: 02
    It is unlikely that Putin will fully rely on oligarchs such as Akhmetov. After all, they are used to selling and betraying everything and everyone, this is their essence, otherwise they don’t know how to live.
    Not that support Rotten.