The causes of the crisis are not sanctions, but the policy of the Russian liberals.
The press got information about the bill prepared by the Ministry of Finance.
In it, in particular, it is proposed to suspend the budget rule relating expenses to the price of oil. In addition, announced the transition to a one-year budget.
All these measures are justified by falling oil prices.
The famous economist Mikhail Delyagin commented on the KM.RU portal measures proposed by the Ministry of Finance.
The plan was not the law, but only a forecast
- The budget rule is taken from the ceiling, and its cancellation is the right initiative. It was invented in order to justify the failure of the state to fulfill its official duties. That is, there was a fundamental rejection of development, when the budget was choking on money, but this money did not go anywhere, but was used to ensure the financial stability of the United States and the Eurozone countries.
Cancellation of this rule is not for meaningful reasons, but simply because there is less money. And now there is a lot of money - unused balances on federal accounts exceed 9 trillions of rubles, but in any case, the abolition of the budget rule is a positive thing.
As for the rejection of the three-year budget planning, we need to understand that the budgets of the second and third years have always been revised, and very significantly. The plan was not a law, but merely a forecast, serving as a guideline for the economy, business, and government officials.
But when the state refuses to give everyone guidance, it has a disorganizing effect on the economy. And this is absolutely wrong. It is as if I wrote with errors, but instead of improving my literacy, I would stop writing at all, but only dictate. It is impossible to do this, it is indulgence in weaknesses and limited opportunities instead of developing them.
There is nothing more to steal, and the model begins to choke
From the economy, I expect a continuation of the fall, if we talk about the outlook for the next few months. At the same time, the ruble is stabilizing after September. We have peaks of payments - in September and December, but before the New Year, I think, the ruble will make one significant fluctuation, and it can be in any direction.
The fact is that our insiders need to celebrate the New Year well, and with the help of the fluctuation of the ruble they will provide themselves with ultra-high profits. Insiders are unpunished, which means they will do their work.
The causes of the crisis are not sanctions, but the policy of Russian liberals, borrowed from the 90s. I remind you that both the devaluation of the ruble and the stampede of capital began in January, 2014, when there was no talk of sanctions, and oil was worth more than $ 105 per barrel.
So this is a crisis of the whole model of the Russian economy, built in 90-e. Roughly speaking, there is nothing more to steal, and the model begins to choke, just like a car that ran out of gas. The Soviet legacy basically ended, there is nothing more to steal.
Talking about the forecast for the next few years does not make sense. Because either we will move on to a development model, and this will be a qualitatively new reality that we cannot imagine right now. Either from the model of plunder, we turn to destruction. And this is also a qualitatively different reality. But we can imagine this, especially if we look at Ukraine.
The first option is more likely, because the second is a nightmare. When the USSR collapsed, almost no one believed in it until the last minute, but now everyone understands that the model of economic destruction is a nightmare. There are no significant political and administrative forces that would like to.