Presidential Advisor Sergey Glazyev, September 15, must submit to the interdepartmental commission of the Security Council of the Russian Federation a report on additional measures to overcome economic sanctions against the Russian Federation. The draft report, which I got acquainted with “Kommersant”, has recipes that will satisfy the most ardent supporter of the economic sovereignty of the Russian Federation: from allowing companies not to pay their debts to creditors from hostile countries until VAT returns on commodity exports.As it became known to Kommersant, 15 of September, an interdepartmental commission of the Security Council of the Russian Federation on security in the economic and social sphere, will hear the report of presidential adviser Sergey Glazyev on the issue “On additional measures to neutralize threats to the economic security of the Russian Federation in the context of international sanctions”.
The commission, represented by deputy ministers and heads of relevant government agencies, has been a division of the Security Council that is preparing proposals for this advisory body by order of Vladimir Putin since February 2009.
To date, the text is the most holistic program report of supporters of a “modernization spurt” of a mobilization type from circles close to the Department of Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The objective of the document is to present, “in addition to the measures taken by the government” to ensure 5-percent GDP growth, a program of government actions to increase the long-term competitiveness of the Russian economy.
However, the real problems that Sergei Glazyev proposes are much wider.
This is an increase in industrial output on 30 – 35%, an increase in the share of the “knowledge economy” of the share in GDP of expenditures on education, health care and social policy from 6,5% to about 40% (figures from the original source), increasing the “accumulation rate” GDP) "to 35 – 45%.
The program, Sergei Glazyev warns, should be implemented over the next five years, that is, before 2020. This is the only way to avoid a “stagflational trap”, threats to “economic security” and “external control over management infrastructure”, to avoid the fate of the global “periphery” oppressed by “nonequivalent exchange” - and enter the new “core of the world economic system” against the will of countries the current "core".
The work continues to develop in the 80 – 90 years of the 20th century the work of Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Dmitry Lvov (died in 2007 year) within the framework of the non-Sumperean theory of “changing technological patterns” outside of the scientific circles of the USSR had no development. The work of Mr. Glazyev contains a number of original additions in the social democratic spirit.
So, with reference to the 2009 nobelis of the year, Elinor Ostrem and Oliver Williamson (collective rights management work) proposed to stimulate the creation of “people's enterprises” in the Russian Federation (up to 10% of the total number in the economy) and organizing in other sectors “councils of workers, scientific engineering councils, governing councils "along with the owners. This makes it a project with the development of "accelerating the scientific and technological progress of the USSR" in 80-x.
Of greater interest are the proposals of Sergei Glazyev, focused on the current political situation associated with the sanctions against the Russian Federation. Passing along the “chain” of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, separate initiatives (as was previously the case with information and food security topics) may become the subject of instructions of the president - despite the fact that the general logic of Glazyev with the ideology of the government of Dmitry Medvedev and the management of the Bank of Russia are incompatible.
The ideas of Sergei Glazyev are divided into six blocks. The first is the “Transition to Sovereign Monetary Policy” (DCT). These ideas imply open manipulation (“system management”) of monetary policy in all respects, from rates to the currency position of the banking system.
Thus, the program involves refinancing of the Central Bank at the rate of 2% of “targeted” industry credits for one to five years for at least 3 trillion rubles. (the final rate for companies is 4%), loans for 1% per annum to development institutions - at least 2 trillion rubles, refinancing of the Central Bank through VEB companies and banks - at 5 trillion rubles. and under the state program of import substitution - at least 3 trillion rubles.
In general, the emission program of the proposals is 20 trillion rubles. for five years. At the same time, Sergei Glazyev puts forward a rather unusual idea of supporting private companies: their state support is carried out with “counter obligations to the state to produce products (or provide services) to a certain extent within certain periods at certain prices. Otherwise, private companies are charged with a debt to the state “in the amount of the value of non-produced goods” (the further fate of this debt is not discussed in a report).
The section “Stabilization of the ruble exchange rate, cessation of capital flight, dedollarization of the economy” contains a set of measures to “stop the speculative whirlwind” on the foreign exchange market. De facto, this is a proposal of hard currency control (“a ban on the purchase of currency by legal entities without a reason for making payment transactions”) with a number of innovations. Thus, it is assumed “temporary tax (reservation of funds)” for conversion operations and cross-border payments. Mr. Glazyev also proposes not only the “introduction of the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings”, but also the “legislative prohibition of loans to non-financial organizations” in currency in principle. Another idea is the “introduction of control over cross-border capital operations through open licensing”, as well as the requirement of a “reasoned rationale” for the export of capital from the position of its “benefit” for the Russian economy.
The section “Stabilization of prices” (obviously, necessary after the implementation of the previous two) requires, first of all, “temporary freezing of prices for goods of daily consumer demand”; establishing a marginal “margin of the trading system” 25% between the “producer price” and the retail price; rights for the FAS in case of price fluctuation “to abruptly return it to the previous level” (apparently, by administrative orders). Mr. Glazyev also proposes to abandon the annual indexation of tariffs of state monopolies with their “medium-term fixation”. A separate subsection is the "rationalization of the power industry" with the "elimination of the negative consequences of the reform of RAO UES". In this block, it’s interesting not so much the expected proposals for rolling back reforms in the industry (returning powers to the Energy Ministry, merging the commercial and technological system operator, “integrated schemes” for the development of housing and public utilities and energy in the regions), but also “rationing profitability in the economy sectors” supplying state infrastructure monopolies .
These ideas are attacking for the most part the construction groups and the management of Gazprom, Transneft, Russian Railways, and Rossety. But there are proposals that will interest all the largest Russian companies. This is the “restoration” of export duties on metals and chemical products and the “termination of VAT refunds on the export of hydrocarbons”, as well as other raw materials - to “encourage its deep processing”.
“Neutralization of anti-Russian sanctions” - the next section of the proposals is interesting, first of all, with the idea of allowing companies to declare force majeure on “against loans provided by countries that have imposed financial sanctions against the Russian Federation” - in fact, this is approximately equal to the legalization of non-repayment of all private foreign debt . The reserves of the Central Bank, the Reserve Fund and the National Wealth Fund Sergey Glazyev recommends converting into gold and “obligations of the BRICS countries”, which should create a “system of international banking settlements, independent of the pressure of NATO countries and replacing (complementary) SWIFT” and Cards "compatible with China UnionPay. A new idea of de-offshore is the termination of double taxation agreements with Cyprus and Luxembourg, the 30-percentage tax "on all operations" with "not cooperating" offshore jurisdictions with the Russian Federation.
Finally, a number of “strategic” and “socially significant” enterprises Sergey Glazyev recommends “not allowing” the transfer into the hands of foreigners in principle: when they are bankrupt (which in some cases with the applied policy looks very likely), an adviser to the president will be based on them and proposes to organize the above described "People's enterprises". The block of initiatives on “Harmonization of interests of business entities” reveals this topic a bit more fully with reference to the “positive experience” gained in this area in the Lipetsk region.
Crowned this coherent system chapter "Deploying a system of strategic management." This is the creation of the State Strategic Planning Committee under the President of the Russian Federation (GKSP) with the “coordination” subordination of the de facto government and the State Committee for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation (GKNTR) under the head of state, but inside the White House. The last two structures repeat the design of Iranian government agencies, which were created after 1994 for an attempt to overcome the US and EU sanctions. In this case, obviously, there is a pure coincidence.