Exact figures: the lies of Yatsenyuk and the inevitability of the Ukrainian default




And vice versa

Recently, Arseniy Yatsenyuk happily reported that private creditors wrote off 20% of government debt to Ukraine. In this regard, the Ukrainian prime minister proudly declared: “the default expected by our enemies will not take place.” Twenty percent of the aforementioned debt is $ 3,6 billion of the total $ 19,3 billion. If the Ukrainian government succeeds in agreeing on a similar write-off of debts for state-guaranteed foreign currency debts of state-owned enterprises, the total amount of debt forgiven can be $ 3,8 billion.

Thus, instead of $ 19,3 billion, Ukraine needs to give $ 15,7 billion to private creditors. Naturally, seeing such numbers, the Ukrainian prime minister was dizzy with success, and the Ukrainian press began chanting: “Peremogh!” But is it? I think the triumphant reports of the Cabinet of Ministers should be checked with a calculator in hand. After all, when dealing with fraudsters, it is necessary to calculate everything to the penny.

We note the fact that Yatsenyuk diligently ignores one small, but very important nuance. The lenders agreed to forgive Ukraine $ 3,6 billion and move the return of loans by four years with the condition that the Ukrainian state raises the interest rate from 7,22% to 7,75% per annum. At first glance, it looks like a trifle. However, the consequences of this trifle is worth counting.

So, before concluding an agreement with creditors, Ukraine needed to give $ 19,3 billion during 9 years (from 2015 to 2023) and pay 7,22% per annum from this amount, which is $ 1,4 billion per year. Thus, all of Ukraine initially had to pay $ 12,5 billion on interest. To this we add the loan body and we get the total amount of $ 31,8 billion (this figure is approximate, since it does not take into account the gradual return of the loan itself, which will reduce interest payments).

And now let's see how much it will be necessary for Ukraine to pay now, after concluding it seems like a very profitable contract with creditors. $ 19,3 billion total debt reduced to $ 15,7 billion. Interest rate increased to 7,75% per annum. The term of public debt repayment extended to 2027 year. That is, you will have to pay interest on 13 years: from 2015 to 2027. Now we count. In the year of interest, the state will have to give $ 1,2 billion. For 13 years, an amount of $ 15,8 billion is accumulated. To this we add the loan body and we get a total amount of $ 31,5 billion.

In order to directly see the size of the next “peremogy”, from the initial total amount of payment in 31.841.140.000 US dollars we will take a new one, which must be paid under an agreement with creditors, which is 31.517.750.000 US dollars. As a result, we get 323.390.000 US dollars. This is only 1,6% of the original national debt amount! In other words, private lenders forgave Ukraine 1,6% of its national debt. "Zrada" is it or "peremog"?

I can assume that it is still “Zrada”, if we consider that the other day the Fitch international rating agency lowered the long-term issuer default rating of Ukraine from CC to C. And this happened against the background of the agreement of the Ukrainian authorities with private creditors to write off the so-called 20% of the national debt. Assigning a rating of "C", according to the classification of Fitch, speaks of the inevitability of default in the performance of debt obligations. After “C” (default is inevitable), there is “RD” (partial default), and then “D” (default).

Fitch believes that the restructuring of the debt of Ukraine means financial losses to creditors and the inevitable default. Writing off part of the public debt will lead to the fact that the default rating of the issuer of Ukraine in foreign currency will be lowered to the “RD” level, and this suggests that the issuer has not made timely payments taking into account the grace period for some, but not all, of the obligations, and continues to make payments on other types of obligations. Simply put, this means that Ukraine continues to pay the IMF debts with new loans, and refuses to pay all other creditors.

The problem with the Ukrainian debt is complicated by the fact that the $ 19,3 billion mentioned, around which serious passions have flared up, is not the entire national debt, but only a part of it - borrowed by private creditors to Ukraine, Kiev and Ukrainian state-owned companies. The Cabinet fought like a lion only for the restructuring of this part. And not the biggest. The fact is that by the beginning of summer 2015, the Ukrainian state owed all its creditors $ 67,7 billion. Of these, $ 43,5 billion was attracted by the country abroad, and the rest in the domestic market. It should be borne in mind that loans of the IMF and other international financial organizations, as well as foreign countries, are categorically not subject to write-off.

For this reason, Russia refuses to participate in the write-off of the so-called 20% of Ukrainian debt. After all, she is not a private lender, and therefore the Ukrainian government can not put it on the same level with Franklin Templeton. With all the desire of Kiev, from a legal point of view it is impossible to do. Hence, the statement of the Minister of Finance of Russia Anton Siluanov that Moscow does not intend to write off 20% of Ukraine’s 3 billion Eurobond debt. There is no reason for this. Moreover, now, due to Western sanctions, the fall in oil prices and the new wave of the global financial crisis, Russia itself is experiencing difficulties due to lack of money. This means that December 20 of Ukraine will be obliged to repay 2015 to Russia for a total amount of $ 3 billion. If it does not do this, it will be first awaited by an international court and a partial default, and then the rating “D”.

It is clear that the Ukrainian state does not have the necessary money to pay off its debts to creditors. And will not. This does not allow to make the economy of the country. Firstly, the Donbass (the most developed industrial part of Ukraine) has not paid taxes to the Ukrainian treasury for a long time. Secondly, in Ukraine for the second year, there is a catastrophic decline in production, accompanied by the shutdown and closure of enterprises. For example, in May 2015, compared with the corresponding month of 2014, industrial production in Ukraine decreased by 20,7%.

The average salary in the country, in March of the current year, according to the State Statistics Committee, fell to 170 dollars per month. That is, the purchasing power of Ukrainian citizens has become extremely low, capable, at best, of ensuring only their physical survival. That is why the country's retail trade collapsed by 28,6%, wholesale - by 18,3%. Shopping areas are idle, stores are closing, markets are shrinking, supermarkets simplify the range of their products, foreign brands are fleeing from Ukraine.

The inflation index in July 2015 compared to the same period 2014 of the year was 155,3%. Only from the beginning of 2014, the hryvnia has depreciated 3 times. And this is despite the fact that at the moment its official rate is purposefully kept by the NBU within the framework set by the IMF, and it is impossible to buy foreign currency freely in Ukraine. It simply is not in exchange.

And, finally, the collapse of Ukrainian GDP continues. In the first quarter of 2015, it collapsed by 17,2%, and in the second quarter - by 15%. It should be borne in mind that the state budget of Ukraine for the 2015 year is formed on the forecast, in which the fall in GDP is 5,5% with inflation of 26,7% and the average annual 21,7 rate per dollar. It is easy to see that this forecast does not correspond to the facts, no matter how official statistics try to understate the scale of the economic catastrophe. Therefore, the money from the Ukrainian government is not and never will be. For objective and beyond the control of the Cabinet. And this means that the default of Ukraine is a matter of the near future only.
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  1. Aleksandr1959 1 September 2015 14: 09 New
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    Two paragraphs are repeated twice.

    Now let's see how much is needed ...

    и
    So, before concluding an agreement with creditors, Ukraine needs ...
    1. vodolaz 1 September 2015 14: 37 New
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      And who is to blame? That's right, Russia! He doesn’t give free gas and still dares to demand back these ridiculous three billion.
      1. sever.56 1 September 2015 15: 00 New
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        http://topwar.ru/uploads/images/2015/011/niuq715.jpg
        1. aleks 62 next 1 September 2015 15: 48 New
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          ... Do not Pushkin dirty about these Mr .. Zey !!!! .... Even re-edited .... hi
        2. _Brown_ 1 September 2015 18: 05 New
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          Sadly, but ... Ukraine, choose your arctic fox ...
        3. Sohm40 2 September 2015 20: 47 New
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          Klitschko supported Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk completely compromised himself as a politician and as a person. It can be seen that the years in the ring were not in vain for the head - only the same frostbitten politicians can maintain the moisture of frostbitten Bandera!
      2. svp67 1 September 2015 15: 58 New
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        Quote: vodolaz
        And who is to blame? That's right, Russia!

        But what about it ... But Mother Russia didn’t say a word yet, and soon Ukraine needs to give 3 billion, and if she doesn’t give them away, it’s not clear how the events will develop. It is possible that the United States, and above all the EU, will get tired of carrying this "suitcase without a handle"
    2. igor.borov775 1 September 2015 16: 15 New
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      Hi Alexander !! Here is a little different. Ukraine will not be allowed to fall at all. You yourself know who drives the money. This has already happened more than once. Remind Iraq. And I think, unlike this gentleman whose opus is readable, there will be no default. The Yankees will not be allowed as long as the United States needs it. Such a story is not one to delve into. Or you already forgot about our recent past. And the default of Ukraine is just the author’s dream no more. Listening to and reading our economist forecasters, I truly regret that there is no such expert as Mr. E. Primakov. Even if I have, I have not yet met in writing orally Once, a very long time ago I got to transmit it back in 2012, then there was a crisis too. He then specifically and clearly explained how everything happens and happened with our country. A lot happened quite differently from what our media presented to us about the default of Russia. Well, things were gone and the conversation was about Europe. He calmly said that the United States was taking over Europe. and then he spoke about the people who then occupied and now occupy, except recently Greece, very high and, most importantly, key posts in European countries. I listened to him and smiled, I did not believe him, thought he was strange. But it turns out he knew what he was saying and what would happen. Nothing sensational, he simply and intelligibly talked about where these gentlemen worked good before. Of course in Europe, but what trans-companies are interesting. In one thing, he only made a mistake in time. it took more time but we see the result with our own eyes. the last straw was the unfortunate passengers of a Boeing that crashed near Donetsk. In all this fuss around the US plane, the biggest banks in the EU countries took control and even then there was talk about Ukraine. There was no talk about the EU then, but he said that all politics Kiev is focused on joining the EU. This is when he said wow. The main thing he said in Ukraine the president is changing but the goal remains the same. Just changed tactics is already about Yanuk. An interesting conversation was probably even the last. I’ve never seen him on the box anymore. Maybe I'm wrong. About the mistakes of the Prime Minister as about the Government, he also talked about our Russian. I remember how the Prime Minister rushed to justify and say that Primakov was wrong. Here he would definitely say what will happen next with Ukraine. So far I have not heard a single clear justification of what will happen to her. All the so-called oracles from the economy last year talked about the default and where it is. It will not be until the United States decides. And I am silent about the EU.
      1. unsinkable 1 September 2015 20: 09 New
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        I respect your opinion. It is explained clearly. But the grandmother said in two. There may not be a default on paper, (the Americans will explain), but in fact it will be. The laws of the economy are cruel.
    3. urii 1 September 2015 17: 02 New
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      it is advisable for stubborn ukraim to see what they sought and what they achieved
    4. Revolver 2 September 2015 00: 28 New
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      Quote: Aleksandr1959
      Two paragraphs are repeated twice.
      Yes, it would be essentially true, repetition would not hurt. But author carries nonsense.
      Firstly, the discount rate of the Ukrainian bank applies only to debts in hryvnias. And in the article, we are talking about external debts, which are either in dollars or in euros, and for these currencies, the discount rate is determined not in Kuev, but in America and the EU, respectively.
      Secondly, discount rates only affect the percentage of new loans. And for old loans, the percentage is that which is fixed in a specific loan agreement, and can only be changed by mutual agreement of the parties. And certainly it does not depend on the current discount rate of the Ukrainian bank for hryvnia accounts.
      Thirdly - is it not enough that, firstly and secondly, to assess the competency of author, or rather its absence, in the topic raised?
      As for the upcoming default of Ukraine, it depends solely on the mood in Washington and Brussels. While there is a mood to throw money to them, there will be no default. As soon as this mood disappears, so default immediately comes. And with it comes the polar fox in the country 404.
  2. Vasily 1 September 2015 14: 11 New
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    Pay all the same to Russia. The script, as usual, comes well, oh-o-o-very good about the Russian president. And we will all at once accept Ukraine into our arms. So prepare the wallets, Russians.
    1. vorobey 1 September 2015 14: 26 New
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      Quote: Vasily
      The script, as usual, comes well, oh-oh-oh-so good about the Russian president


      Does it not suit you? Are you more interested in watching horse racing?

      a man who has forgotten his past has no future ... but Russia, whatever one may say, began from Kiev ... we should not be compared to unconsciousness ..
      1. goose 1 September 2015 14: 49 New
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        Quote: vorobey
        a man who has forgotten his past has no future ... but Russia, whatever one may say, began from Kiev ... we shouldn’t be likened to unconsciousness ..

        Sorry, when according to the annals Russia began from Kiev, Yaroslavl, Tver, and other cities were already available. So this is a one-sided proposition. Perhaps, political education began in Kiev, including not one center, but several. And Russia itself began, de facto, before Kiev.
        1. reservist 1 September 2015 15: 28 New
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          Quote: goose
          Sorry, when according to the annals Russia began from Kiev, Yaroslavl, Tver, and other cities were already available.

          on this subject, you can probably debate for a long time ...

          In 882, Prince Oleg (Prophetic), having set off on a campaign with the Novgorod army and a mercenary Varangian squad, captured Kiev on the way from Novgorod to the south.

          Yaroslavl was founded by Prince Yaroslav the Wise during his Rostov reign (988-1010)

          In the 1135 Manuscript of Prince Vsevolod Mstislavich there is the first mention of Tver

          if, as is customary, the date of foundation of the city is considered to be the first annalistic mention, then Kiev is still older than Yaroslavl and Tver, but younger than Novgorod the Great ...
          1. Oper6300 2 September 2015 08: 53 New
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            Novgorod, and indeed the cities of Northern Russia, I think will be older than Kiev.
      2. Ribwort 1 September 2015 14: 53 New
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        Quote: vorobey
        Does it not suit you? Are you more interested in watching horse racing?

        We are not interested in paying for these races! More precisely, their consequences.
      3. svp67 1 September 2015 16: 03 New
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        Quote: vorobey
        and Russia, whatever one may say, from Kiev began ...

        Before Kievan Rus, Novgorod Russia was already, not to mention the Gardariki, remember where Rurik came to reign, so the myth of Kiev, as the “mother of Russian cities”, is just a good example of PR
      4. ver_ 1 September 2015 18: 59 New
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        .... the city is people and times ... but what about the city of Kiev, the Slavs were not? Christ (Prince Bogolyubsky - nephew of Prince Vladimir the Red Sun) - got better in Troy so that they crucified him and his uncle - Vladimir - the Red Sun chopped off his head ... Troy was the capital of the Slavic Empire ...
      5. Dry_T-50 1 September 2015 21: 51 New
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        Quote: vorobey
        Russia, whatever one may say, from Kiev began

        There was Novgorod
    2. Das Boot 1 September 2015 14: 28 New
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      Quote: Vasily
      Pay all the same to Russia. The script, as usual, comes well, oh-o-o-very good about the Russian president. And we will all at once accept Ukraine into our arms. So prepare the wallets, Russians.
    3. RiverVV 1 September 2015 14: 38 New
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      Alas, alas ... :( Everything is simpler. You don’t have to pay debts at all. Nobody. For this, the power should change in Ukraine. In the same way, the Bolsheviks in the 17th refused to pay on loans from the tsarist government. There are strictly two options for Ukraine. Either ultra-right authorities come in and the civilized world is stocking up with popcorn in anticipation of Nuremberg-2, or the Donetsk people take Kiev and say that they didn’t take out loans - not to give them back, in the first case, the country turns into occupied territory (like Crimea, yeah!), in the second - New Russia will appear instead of it (well, Poland and Hungary will be bitten off with a bite).

      In any case, the population of the Ruins will be reduced by three times. Well, civil war - what did you want? Tuzhi, Svidomo, jumped.
      1. Das Boot 1 September 2015 15: 46 New
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        Quote: RiverVV
        Everything is simpler. You can not pay debts at all

        of course. And at the same time avoid default. Paradox? Yes, that's not a fig! There are greconomics and xlonomics. This is stronger than any economic laws there. Even the reputable The Economist is a little overwhelmed by such a free interpretation. For them it has always been like this: haircut debt = default. Dot. And now they saw everything ...
      2. igor.borov775 1 September 2015 16: 41 New
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        And who told YOU that they refused, as far as we know, there was a counterclaim for the intervention. At first the gentlemen seemed to agree, but when they knew the extent of the damage they instantly refused, they just thought that the Bolsheviks would not last more than two years. At the same time, they announced a complete boycott at the conference. They estimated the volume of reparations in Germany, decided how much to snatch. The RSFSR refused reparations and entered into a trade agreement with the defeated country of Germany. By the way, the United States was then called a little differently, but this is not the topic you will find out. It was presented the least. Before the Yankees got around, they got to the teeth and rushed to Vladik's homeland. The barbarians turn out to be hard hit and very stubborn. This was said about our ancestors by the American general. This is not for them.
        1. RiverVV 1 September 2015 17: 38 New
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          Reparations??? Actually, the Brest Peace was concluded before the surrender of Germany and Austria. In this regard, it would be a little awkward to talk about some kind of reparations for Soviet Russia. On the contrary: according to the peace treaty, it was Russia that stuck out a certain amount to Germany. However, Lenin then threw the Germans.
    4. Ribwort 1 September 2015 14: 52 New
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      Quote: Vasily
      So prepare the wallets, Russians.

      They’ll be wasted in vain. And this option is not excluded. How donations for the needs of Donbass were collected in our organization “voluntarily” and how my neighbor did not have enough budgetary place in the university, since everyone was occupied by refugees (they promised that they would allocate separate places, but apparently did not grow together) I have not forgotten. So I do not exclude the “voluntary” fees for the restoration of the southeast. Did the state do a little poddyanka?
      1. Das Boot 1 September 2015 15: 03 New
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        Quote: Ribwort
        So the "voluntary" fees for the restoration of the southeast


        Yes, this is not particularly discussed, and so it was clear that in the near future a new line of expenditures was provided to our budget. But the comrade wrote:
        Quote: Vasily
        And we will all at once accept Ukraine into our arms.

        therefore, not only did SE mean, but also the north-west and, I am not afraid of the word, "south-north" (©) And this, you see, is nonsense.
        1. Dry_T-50 1 September 2015 21: 54 New
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          Quote: Das Boot
          I’m not afraid of the word, "south-north" (©)

          Approve one and a half
    5. Nymp 1 September 2015 14: 53 New
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      Vasily, I don’t agree with you about the “pro-Russian” president in Ukraine, it sounds like a sandwich with fickles. The fact is that in the 24 years of independence, Ukraine has turned into dill. Partly this is partly Russia's fault. Arguing just like you, Vasil, that this fraternal country will not go anywhere, Russia lost the information war in Ukraine. And in 24 years, a whole generation of Russophobes has grown up brought up on textbooks funded by the Soras Foundation and local national-patriotic organizations. These dill will never reconcile with the pro-Russian president. Add to this the unbridled fascism in the country and you will realize that your forecast is very optimistic.
    6. svp67 1 September 2015 15: 59 New
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      Quote: Vasily
      So prepare the wallets, Russians.

      Yeah, let’s just “keep your pocket wider ...” maybe it’ll
    7. Weyland 1 September 2015 16: 56 New
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      Quote: Vasily
      Well, oh-oh-so-good about the Russian president will come.


      “And he will prove his pro-Russian orientation by immediately returning the debts in full and recognizing the independence of the LPR + DPR and the belonging of the Crimea to Russia.” laughing
      And if not, he’s not pro-Russian! am
      1. Dry_T-50 1 September 2015 21: 56 New
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        Quote: Weyland
        “And he will prove his pro-Russian orientation by immediately returning the debts in full and recognizing the independence of the LPR + DPR and the belonging of the Crimea to Russia.”

        Or organizes the Ukrainian Federal District with nyash mash and Russian bases
    8. Weyland 1 September 2015 16: 56 New
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      Quote: Vasily
      Well, oh-oh-so-good about the Russian president will come.


      “And he will prove his pro-Russian orientation by immediately returning the debts in full and recognizing the independence of the LPR + DPR and the belonging of the Crimea to Russia.” laughing
      And if not, he’s not pro-Russian! am
  3. rotmistr60 1 September 2015 14: 16 New
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    “The default expected by our enemies will not take place”

    Apparently, the real numbers, if they reach, even a little distorted, the Ukrainians, then they take these numbers for hostile propaganda. They formatted the people for themselves and do what they want. At the same time, they tell how well Ukraine will heal tomorrow, although it is silent that this "tomorrow" may not come.
    1. gudgeon 1 September 2015 18: 03 New
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      Quote: rotmistr60
      At the same time, they tell how well Ukraine will heal tomorrow, though it is silent that this “tomorrow” may not come.

      Well, why? Maybe it will come. Here is an example:
      Germany, 1922. Children play in bundles of money.
  4. sem-yak 1 September 2015 14: 16 New
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    If you want to multiply, but if you like, plus it - it's all the same money x ...!
  5. kagorta 1 September 2015 14: 18 New
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    Arithmetic is bad. The repayment schedules and the calculation of interest on the remaining debt are not taken into account. And if you count as it should, then it turns out that giving back is now much more profitable, but with the panaman ...
    But there the whole trick of enslavement is that payment payments increase if Ukraine’s GDP grows, that is, all "growth" will be given to the "friends" of Ukraine and the chances of a sharp and qualitative leap in the economy are reduced.
    1. iConst 1 September 2015 19: 00 New
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      Quote: kagorta
      But there the whole trick of enslavement is that payment payments increase if Ukraine’s GDP grows, that is, all "growth" will be given to the "friends" of Ukraine and the chances of a sharp and qualitative leap in the economy are reduced.

      Yes, I also noticed that this point was missed in the article.
      And the chance of a “leap” in the economy is not that it is decreasing - it is becoming zero.
    2. Docent1984 2 September 2015 15: 11 New
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      Quote: kagorta
      the chances of a sharp and qualitative leap in the economy are declining

      Are you kidding now? Or are you kidding on purpose? There can be only one jump in this "economy" - into the abyss, so as not to suffer.
      1. kagorta 2 September 2015 15: 51 New
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        No jokes. Starting from the bottom is always easier.
  6. sir_obs 1 September 2015 14: 20 New
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    There will be no default, pi_dets will immediately.
  7. Volzhanin 1 September 2015 14: 21 New
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    Here it is - Jewish mathematics!
    And the electorate on the outskirts hawks this impudent Jewish lie and foolishly rejoices.
    Do they really think that the bourgeois-capitalists have become altruists? Rather, the yellow stone in the US will explode, than they will write off the debts.
    yes
  8. bedniyyorik 1 September 2015 14: 24 New
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    interesting, but who will write an article about Russia?
    And then I'm tired of everything about the dollar and the hryvnia, about the ruble it is more interesting to me, I live with it.
    1. Mountain shooter 1 September 2015 15: 16 New
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      Do you get a salary in dollars? And in the store "greens" litter? So live with the ruble, and cherish it. Under EBN-e, Russia was “tied” to the dollar economy so carefully that for 15 years it has been gradually removing legs from under the dollar. And still not completely removed. For me, it’s so very good that the currency jumped. The customer went in a jamb. It has become expensive to buy imported equipment, but ours is no worse.
      1. _Brown_ 1 September 2015 18: 19 New
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        I even wondered what you produce?
        Import substitution is a good and necessary thing, but for 15 we have been accumulating the stabilization fund for years, while some industries either did not develop (were not created) at all, or they received little attention.
        1. Das Boot 1 September 2015 19: 05 New
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          Quote: _Brown_
          Import substitution is a good and necessary thing, but for 15 we have been accumulating the stabilization fund for years, while some industries either did not develop (were not created) at all, or they received little attention.

          fair. The whim of the commodity economy - "but the hell?". Rakes and roasted roosters are indispensable conditions for the transition to a new economic model.
    2. igor.borov775 1 September 2015 17: 13 New
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      While the liberals command there and our ruble will roam the waves of the world as the economies write. If the country's chief economist as a worthless oracle every time changes the country's development figures, speaking on the box doesn’t tell you anything. That GDP will fall, it seems a little bit a little bit a lot. It becomes clear that the management of the country's economy has been lost. They switched to manual mode like the last time saved. This is about the most famous liberal of the government, the President gave such a characteristic. Mr. ULYUKAYEV, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development as a position. The only thing calms down The defense industry went on the so-called colored money. It’s just an image that a new tracking system really worked for whom and for what, and most importantly, how quickly it identifies one-day companies for removing money. Putin wants the entire budget of the country to fall under this new tracking system. I told the President that even test tracking revealed very interesting connections . There others already work out find out and check.
      1. _Brown_ 1 September 2015 18: 23 New
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        May God grant that they would press the haulers and bribe takers. And then I'm tired of looking at rospils and financial leaks, dehydration and utruski ...
    3. 23 region 1 September 2015 21: 17 New
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      Quote: bedniyyorik
      interesting, but who will write an article about Russia?
      And then I'm tired of everything about the dollar and the hryvnia, about the ruble it is more interesting to me, I live with it.

      Putin explained to the 11-year-old boy the situation with the rublehttp://www.forbes.ru/news/298439-putin-obyasnil-11-letnemu-malchiku-situatsiyu-s
      -kursom-rublya
  9. A-Sim 1 September 2015 14: 29 New
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    Slippers sailed to the sofa ...
  10. tyzyaga 1 September 2015 14: 45 New
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    Even in Ukraine, 7,22%! There is something to learn)) Maybe it’s enough to discuss other people's problems, but will we do our best?
    1. The comment was deleted.
  11. Seriomilander 1 September 2015 14: 52 New
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    I do not think that the default will come. The West will give more loans, Russia more discounts, and Ukraine will sell another piece of the country ...
    1. Das Boot 1 September 2015 15: 24 New
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      Quote: Seriomilander
      I do not think that the default will come.

      why are you clinging to this default? A default would be the best way for the xxlov in the current situation. And Yaresko also plans to issue new debt securities, implying economic growth of 3-4% or more per year. Where ?? And a crowd of investors expects. B / \ I, from under them the nurse takes out the duck and changes the dropper, and they mutter in delirium that tomorrow they will ski.
      What happened to the Greeks and the Hohls is a textbook default, but they made an exception and renamed it "restructuring." And the rabbit of all xoxls spattered pink snot about what diligent payers and reliable partners they were. This is just that example of "endless horror."
  12. EGOrkka 1 September 2015 14: 55 New
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    First, Donbass (the most developed industrial part of Ukraine)


    In the ruin, all the "whistlers" yell that the Donbass is the most depressed area ....
    1. aleks 62 next 1 September 2015 15: 51 New
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      .... In the ruin, all the "whistlers" yell that the Donbass is the most depressed area ....

      .... Of envy sir .... Of envy ... lol
  13. bogart047 1 September 2015 15: 09 New
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    What is the essence of the article? Well, on \ in Ukraine it’s bad, it will be even worse, okay ... But where is the point? To gloat or divert attention from your problems? Well, it’s already Ukraine-style ...
  14. Nymp 1 September 2015 15: 11 New
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    Yaytsenyuk with a victorious exclamation: "the default which our enemies were waiting for so long will not happen! .." We are the enemies - Russians. I know exactly what the Russians expected from Ukraine; that it will be a strong, sovereign, and most importantly fraternal and friendly power to us. Indeed, the Russians did not expect such a trick from Ukraine. It was not Russia that destroyed the 43rd Strategic Missile Regiment of Ukraine. The Ukrainians themselves, with their own hands under the cries of cheers and fireworks in Kiev, announced to the whole world that Ukraine is no longer a nuclear power. The Russians left Ukraine with the division of Soviet military potential the most powerful army of all the former republics, not to see Ukraine selling itself on the political panel. And after that we hear in our address spitting Yatsenyuk and Company.
  15. Seriomilander 1 September 2015 15: 17 New
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    I'm afraid that Svidomo draw their knowledge from American manuals that have nothing to do with reality outside the window.
    1. Das Boot 1 September 2015 15: 41 New
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      Quote: Seriomilander
      I'm afraid that Svidomo draw their knowledge from American manuals that have nothing to do with reality outside the window.

      It seems that Yaresko and Siluanov have one training manual. She hopes for GDP growth of 5%, and this one for oil at $ 60.
  16. Kawaii_Strelok 1 September 2015 16: 28 New
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    .... but it is impossible to buy foreign currency freely in Ukraine. It is simply not in the exchangers ..... The author is lying.
    I have two friends on Ruin. One in Odessa, the second in Kiev. According to them, you can buy currency!
    1. Das Boot 1 September 2015 18: 48 New
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      Quote: Kawaii_Strelok
      .... but it is impossible to buy foreign currency freely in Ukraine. It is simply not in the exchangers ..... The author is lying.
      I have two friends on Ruin. One in Odessa, the second in Kiev. According to them, you can buy currency!

      don’t shoot the pianist ... Some people are sure that in Kiev they eat cats and chopped all the trees for firewood. My acquaintance has a house near Kiev, goes there with Moscow numbers. It's all nonsense, it's not about that - the author is friends with a calculator and agitprop - he is credited. But the point is not only that the Hohls, like the Greeks, declared the possibility of undeclared default. As The Economist rightly remarked - “The agreement will not be of great importance for the average Ukrainian ... The hryvnia, the currency of Ukraine, is still weak: inflation is almost 60%. And long-term prospects are not much better. Even if the war ends tomorrow, the country will need tens of billions of dollars to rebuild itself. "
      That's right - the Shetletovka xxl does not like the prospect of shock therapy and belt tightening, just like the Greek from Orestiada. All this medication is not a substitute for surgery. It’s not even populism, it’s ... populidiotism, or something ....
  17. tezey 1 September 2015 16: 39 New
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    Arithmetic, a calculator, and even algebra are not for Yatsenyuk and the GOP company. I scare him who knows a few memorized phrases from the list of the State Department, this is not necessary. His task is to directly transform the country into the likeness of the Central African Republic or Liberia. Today there is a large-scale experiment organized by the West to transform the industrial European state into an underdeveloped, Afro-free society, dependent in all respects on the owners. It was always a dream in the West that Ukraine would be their property. Hitler could not. I think Obama will not succeed as a result.
  18. vyinemeynen 1 September 2015 17: 27 New
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    It is a pity there is nothing about the article (the so-called value recovery instruments, VRI). They are designed to compensate for the loss of creditors from writing off debt in the event that the Ukrainian economy recovers faster than predicted. As part of the deal, 20-year-old VRIs will be released.)
    Who cares read here.
    http://aftershock.su/?q=comment/1899610#comment-1899610
    1. Vladimir 1964 1 September 2015 20: 46 New
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      Yes, dear vyinemeynen, this author has missed, so the total amount of debt will probably be more.
      1. Das Boot 1 September 2015 21: 06 New
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        Quote: Vladimir 1964
        the author has missed, so the total amount of debt will probably be greater.

        no, it will not. But that too is enough.
    2. Das Boot 1 September 2015 21: 03 New
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      Quote: vyinemeynen
      VRI). They are designed to compensate for the loss of creditors from

      xoxls will not make payments on VRI until their GDP is $ 125 billion, and this is the IMF forecast for 2019.
      Quote: vyinemeynen
      if the economy of Ukraine will recover faster than predicted

      well yes. Hedge, Carl ...
      1. vyinemeynen 2 September 2015 00: 10 New
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        the brain does not allow you to see the link (with a small letter)!
        1. Das Boot 2 September 2015 08: 32 New
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          Quote: vyinemeynen
          to you (with a small letter)

          yes there - come on "you".
          If you are rude, then without etiquette.
  19. Oman 47 1 September 2015 17: 30 New
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    Also, Gazprom, if according to the court debts from crested shakes, in the approach of the heating season ...
  20. iouris 1 September 2015 18: 41 New
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    And what will happen after the default: a bloodless Ukraine will not hang on our fence or will lie on the threshold, or the Russian Federation will start lending to the next regime, or ...
  21. Kuzyakin15 1 September 2015 19: 28 New
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    Quote: vorobey
    Quote: Vasily
    The script, as usual, comes well, oh-oh-oh-so good about the Russian president


    Does it not suit you? Are you more interested in watching horse racing?

    a man who has forgotten his past has no future ... but Russia, whatever one may say, began from Kiev ... we should not be compared to unconsciousness ..

    WE are not interested in paying for these races. We already paid the USSR debt, for 20 years we paid for the “non-competitive” races under Kravchuk, Kuchma, Yushchenko, Yanukovych. Everyone tried to pay in advance, give a soft loan (no refund), we hoped to keep it. And Ukraine was trying to eat fish too .... sit down. As a result, we outwitted ourselves, and again we were to blame for their troubles. So what? Again pay for them, pay loans, put them on your neck, But when will your people LIVE? And Ukrainians should, to win "and dissolve your mess. Remember one thing: DO NOT MAKE PEOPLE HAPPY AGAINST THEIR WILL!
  22. Black cat 1 September 2015 19: 42 New
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    Interesting to read the article, thanks to the author. But in my opinion, the default of Ukraine is a purely political issue. As you know, international law is as drawbar as it turned and it turned out. The question is how many states and their satellites are ready to invest in their project. The states of Hitler before the war also gave a lot of money, in the end they earned even more. And the impoverishment of the population will satisfy completely Ukrainian masters, the poor are more likely to join the army, and the states need cannon fodder, they will earn on it.
  23. unsinkable 1 September 2015 20: 23 New
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    Quote: vorobey
    and Russia, whatever one may say, began from Kiev ... we shouldn’t be likened to unconsciousness ..

    This is history. You can’t forget anything. I agree. But modernity dictates its own rules, and you need to play according to them, without looking at the past. Look around. Yesterday's friends have become hateful enemies. Enemies have become friends. developments. Maybe because of this I personally don’t understand much, or rather, I don’t perceive.