At the bottom
17 August, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev insisted that world oil prices have reached minimum values, and they have nowhere to fall. Obviously, that was an idealistic attempt to determine consciousness by being. Ulyukaev prices did not obey and rushed down at a breakneck pace. 25 August media released a new statement Ulyukaeva: he said that the Russian economy has reached the bottom.
Ulyukayev is undoubtedly “an absolute optimist” (the phrase was not quoted in quotes from ridicule, as some readers probably thought, but because it belongs to young Trotsky, who classified the optimists). After all, only an optimist, full of rainbow illusions, can argue that the Russian economy has two bottoms. Or double bottom.
Judge for yourself.
17 August (just on the anniversary of the memorable "default"), the minister told the press that oil prices are unlikely to fall below. “I think that we are now at a level below which we are unlikely to be,” the portal quotes him. "Vesti.Ekonomika".
Below, mean? Bottom?
Let us remind you which numbers were voiced by the economic minister that day: “We now have an average annual exchange rate of about 58 rubles per dollar - this is when the price of oil is about $ 56 per barrel. Accordingly, if the dynamics will be closer to our forecast estimate, and the forecast estimate, let me remind you, was conservative 50, then this corresponds to a forecast estimate of the 60-61 ruble per dollar. ”
As if in spite of forecasters, a week later, on August 24, Brent crude oil, which is customarily oriented in Russia, cost 42 and a half dollars per barrel. 25-th price jumped at a level slightly above 43.
It is necessary to make a "technical" amendment.
In Russia they sell oil of a grade not “Brent”, but “Urals”. However, its pricing is based on the price of Brent, while Russian oil is cheaper because the quality is worse. Prices for “Urals” of 25 on August fluctuated in the area from 42,90 to 43,55 dollars per barrel on 10 hours of 30 minutes in Moscow. Those who want to track the price of this variety in real time can watch the changes in the graphs, for example, here.
On the morning of August 25 on site TASS A new remarkable forecast from Mr. Ulyukayev appeared.
From Kuala Lumpur, the minister said that the Russian economy had reached the bottom. Further fall Ulyukaev not waiting.
That is cheers - we will not fall anywhere. But after all, before the Minister spoke about "the level below which we are unlikely to be."
It seems to us, the second bottom is also not the last. It’s better to be a realist than an “absolute optimist.”
Moreover, Ulyukaev spoke about the revision of forecasts for Russia's GDP.
“We are adjusting (the forecast for GDP) downward for 2015 and 2016 years,” he told reporters. “In 2015, we expect a drop in 3,3% (the previous forecast assumed a drop of 2,8%).”
And then - again optimism: in 2016, GDP growth is expected in the range from 1% to 2% (against the previous forecast in 2,3%, but still growth). The Minister disagrees with the estimate of the International Monetary Fund about the growth of Russia's GDP in 2016 by 0,2%. Why do not agree, not reported. Probably, he is waiting for an increase in oil prices, but the IMF is not waiting.
Another manifestation of optimism was the official's cheerful statement about the low probability of “spending all the reserves”.
“There is no likelihood of spending all the reserves in 2016. Budget revenues in the 2016 year will fall relative to our expectations, but they will still be higher than what is fixed in the budget law. Therefore, the rate of expenditure of the Reserve Fund is less than that fixed in the law. Therefore, there is no such danger in both 2016 and 2017, ”the Minister of Economic Development explained.
I wonder where a person who is not in a position to foresee the future for the next week knows something about 2016 and even 2017?
There was one more reason for optimism.
The minister said that capital outflow from Russia in 2015 will be 93 billion dollars, and in 2016 year - less, only 70 billion dollars: “We believe that next year the outflow will be approximately 70 billion dollars. It is big, but less than this year - this year there will be 93 billion dollars. ”
That is the forecast of the Minister can be trusted. Less dollars can be bought for rubles, and therefore less dollars will be exported. Here on the calculators everything converges. Therefore, there is no reason to rejoice in the reduction of capital outflow. However, this is still just a forecast, and the price of the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, in our opinion, is approximately equal to the price of weather prophecies of the Hydrometeorological Center.
Also, the economist has pleased the Russians loyalty to the principles.
The Ministry of Economic Development has revised its consumer price growth forecast: it now expects inflation at the level of 2015 at a level slightly higher than 11%. “At the end of the year, inflation will be 11% - 11% with a little,” TASS quoted Ulyukayev. “That is, we lower the inflation forecast (compared to the previous official forecast in 11,9%).” According to the head of the ministry, the revision was influenced by the weakening of the ruble, but not fundamentally: “This somewhat changes our view, but not in a principled way.”
The latter can also be trusted. "Fundamentally" Russia will still remain a raw materials appendage of the West, dependent on foreign exchange earnings. There is another option to become a raw materials appendage of China - but in China today there is such a crisis that it is better not to take a forecast even for the Ministry of Economic Development with the Hydrometeorological Center.
Mr. Ulyukayev has no doubt that the West will continue the policy of sanctions against Russia. On the continuation of the sanctions at least until 2018, the updated forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development is being built: “We presume that they (the sanctions) continue until the 2018 year. On the scale in which the forecast is prepared, they continue. ”
Optimism is also here: apparently, it is precisely sanctions that will lead to a boom in domestic investment.
Ulyukaev noted that the growth of the Russian economy (in 2017 year) is expected due to the recovery of consumer demand and the start of investment growth: "In 2016, we still do not expect investment growth, but we are already expecting it in 2017".
At the end of the conversation with journalists, the minister acknowledged that the ruble exchange rate depends on oil prices. According to Ulyukayev, the volatility of the ruble exchange rate will continue until the oil price finds a balance: “As soon as the markets find a new balance of oil prices, the exchange rate volatility will calm down.”
When will it be? It would seem that a logical person should immediately give an answer. The gentleman who confidently operates with forecasts for 2016 and even 2017 years must answer very quickly.
And here is the answer to Ulyukayev: "When this happens, no one can know."
Ulyukayev is undoubtedly “an absolute optimist” (the phrase was not quoted in quotes from ridicule, as some readers probably thought, but because it belongs to young Trotsky, who classified the optimists). After all, only an optimist, full of rainbow illusions, can argue that the Russian economy has two bottoms. Or double bottom.
Judge for yourself.
17 August (just on the anniversary of the memorable "default"), the minister told the press that oil prices are unlikely to fall below. “I think that we are now at a level below which we are unlikely to be,” the portal quotes him. "Vesti.Ekonomika".
Below, mean? Bottom?
Let us remind you which numbers were voiced by the economic minister that day: “We now have an average annual exchange rate of about 58 rubles per dollar - this is when the price of oil is about $ 56 per barrel. Accordingly, if the dynamics will be closer to our forecast estimate, and the forecast estimate, let me remind you, was conservative 50, then this corresponds to a forecast estimate of the 60-61 ruble per dollar. ”
As if in spite of forecasters, a week later, on August 24, Brent crude oil, which is customarily oriented in Russia, cost 42 and a half dollars per barrel. 25-th price jumped at a level slightly above 43.
It is necessary to make a "technical" amendment.
In Russia they sell oil of a grade not “Brent”, but “Urals”. However, its pricing is based on the price of Brent, while Russian oil is cheaper because the quality is worse. Prices for “Urals” of 25 on August fluctuated in the area from 42,90 to 43,55 dollars per barrel on 10 hours of 30 minutes in Moscow. Those who want to track the price of this variety in real time can watch the changes in the graphs, for example, here.
On the morning of August 25 on site TASS A new remarkable forecast from Mr. Ulyukayev appeared.
From Kuala Lumpur, the minister said that the Russian economy had reached the bottom. Further fall Ulyukaev not waiting.
That is cheers - we will not fall anywhere. But after all, before the Minister spoke about "the level below which we are unlikely to be."
It seems to us, the second bottom is also not the last. It’s better to be a realist than an “absolute optimist.”
Moreover, Ulyukaev spoke about the revision of forecasts for Russia's GDP.
“We are adjusting (the forecast for GDP) downward for 2015 and 2016 years,” he told reporters. “In 2015, we expect a drop in 3,3% (the previous forecast assumed a drop of 2,8%).”
And then - again optimism: in 2016, GDP growth is expected in the range from 1% to 2% (against the previous forecast in 2,3%, but still growth). The Minister disagrees with the estimate of the International Monetary Fund about the growth of Russia's GDP in 2016 by 0,2%. Why do not agree, not reported. Probably, he is waiting for an increase in oil prices, but the IMF is not waiting.
Another manifestation of optimism was the official's cheerful statement about the low probability of “spending all the reserves”.
“There is no likelihood of spending all the reserves in 2016. Budget revenues in the 2016 year will fall relative to our expectations, but they will still be higher than what is fixed in the budget law. Therefore, the rate of expenditure of the Reserve Fund is less than that fixed in the law. Therefore, there is no such danger in both 2016 and 2017, ”the Minister of Economic Development explained.
I wonder where a person who is not in a position to foresee the future for the next week knows something about 2016 and even 2017?
There was one more reason for optimism.
The minister said that capital outflow from Russia in 2015 will be 93 billion dollars, and in 2016 year - less, only 70 billion dollars: “We believe that next year the outflow will be approximately 70 billion dollars. It is big, but less than this year - this year there will be 93 billion dollars. ”
That is the forecast of the Minister can be trusted. Less dollars can be bought for rubles, and therefore less dollars will be exported. Here on the calculators everything converges. Therefore, there is no reason to rejoice in the reduction of capital outflow. However, this is still just a forecast, and the price of the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, in our opinion, is approximately equal to the price of weather prophecies of the Hydrometeorological Center.
Also, the economist has pleased the Russians loyalty to the principles.
The Ministry of Economic Development has revised its consumer price growth forecast: it now expects inflation at the level of 2015 at a level slightly higher than 11%. “At the end of the year, inflation will be 11% - 11% with a little,” TASS quoted Ulyukayev. “That is, we lower the inflation forecast (compared to the previous official forecast in 11,9%).” According to the head of the ministry, the revision was influenced by the weakening of the ruble, but not fundamentally: “This somewhat changes our view, but not in a principled way.”
The latter can also be trusted. "Fundamentally" Russia will still remain a raw materials appendage of the West, dependent on foreign exchange earnings. There is another option to become a raw materials appendage of China - but in China today there is such a crisis that it is better not to take a forecast even for the Ministry of Economic Development with the Hydrometeorological Center.
Mr. Ulyukayev has no doubt that the West will continue the policy of sanctions against Russia. On the continuation of the sanctions at least until 2018, the updated forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development is being built: “We presume that they (the sanctions) continue until the 2018 year. On the scale in which the forecast is prepared, they continue. ”
Optimism is also here: apparently, it is precisely sanctions that will lead to a boom in domestic investment.
Ulyukaev noted that the growth of the Russian economy (in 2017 year) is expected due to the recovery of consumer demand and the start of investment growth: "In 2016, we still do not expect investment growth, but we are already expecting it in 2017".
At the end of the conversation with journalists, the minister acknowledged that the ruble exchange rate depends on oil prices. According to Ulyukayev, the volatility of the ruble exchange rate will continue until the oil price finds a balance: “As soon as the markets find a new balance of oil prices, the exchange rate volatility will calm down.”
When will it be? It would seem that a logical person should immediately give an answer. The gentleman who confidently operates with forecasts for 2016 and even 2017 years must answer very quickly.
And here is the answer to Ulyukayev: "When this happens, no one can know."
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru
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