Military Review

Scary faces of the future

66
About a year ago, I was forecasting the development of the situation in Ukraine and the impact on the Russian Federation. It was painted in the words most accessible to the general public and did not pretend to complete the analysis. Rather, it described the things trivial and obvious to any sensible person. The laws of social development are always the same, we are talking about a great global power or a desert bantustan forgotten by all gods. Today we are forced to focus on the current external and internal situation, and not the one that was a year ago. Since then, the situation has seriously changed, and not in our favor.



The forecast below sets out four possible course of events, where Ukrainian events are already important, but only a secondary front. The time period is by default one and a half to two, for a maximum of three years. One scenario is unambiguously positive for our country, two are conditionally neutral, with the possibility of transition to more optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, one is unambiguously negative.

Perspective one. It can be called optimistic. It provides for the successful withdrawal of Russia from the economic blockade and the political crisis with the least losses. Its implementation depends on a whole chain of factors, starting from the mistakes of the opponents, ending with a successful coincidence of circumstances. In the absence of a coherent foreign policy strategy, you will have to rely on them.

The long-running crisis in the European Union, caused by the flow of migrants and outright economic blackmail by the most willful member countries, should be the decisive moments playing for the “red ones”. Such problems will waste the already ambiguous unity of the European Union and make its position on Russia much more loose.

An additional scenario that plays into the hands of the Russian Federation may be the collapse of Ukraine. Not legal so far, but actual, as in Libya or Somalia. That is, a situation in which an “internationally recognized” government controls a certain small territory, and gangs, field commanders rule the rest of the country, and self-proclaimed states arise within the same village. The roll down to such a state can no longer serve as an adequate tool against Russia.

Another unpleasant surprise for the West could be a possible ISIS attack on the Gulf monarchies. Most likely, the preparation of such a campaign will take about a year, although it is not necessary to exclude an earlier speech. If Saudi Arabia falls, its neighbors will actually be doomed. The victories of the "Islamic State" in this field will cause a real shock in the European and American capitals, not to mention the oil prices soaring to madness.

The operation of even two or three of the listed opportunities will be for Russia a real strategic gift of fate. The incarnation of all at once can be considered the intervention of higher powers. However, miracles sometimes happen even in politics, especially if you push them a little bit.

With such a diverse range of troubles, Berlin and Washington will be forced to bow to Moscow and begin to lift the sanctions, because even they will not pull the confrontation on so many fronts.

According to the results of the bout, Russia and Putin personally will be perceived in the world as the victorious side, and the sequence of its actions as the highest political aerobatics that will be studied many decades later in the relevant institutions. The current president of the Russian Federation, without any problems, rules the country until 2018, and is re-elected for the next term.

Perspective Two. Stagnation. Everything remains as it is. The European Union and the United States somehow cope with internal problems. IG goes into a dull defense and does not create major problems for the West and the oil and gas monarchies. Poroshenko's regime in Ukraine only strengthened. Donbass in one way or another is returned to Ukraine. Possible, though not necessary, the assault of Transnistria by the Ukrainian-Moldovan troops.

In Russia, the socio-economic crisis is gaining momentum. The authorities are holding the situation in the country, but the shaft of accusations of top management is growing in surrender of foreign policy positions and mass impoverishment of citizens. This is not the most severe crisis that led to the collapse of the USSR, but the destructive direction to such an outcome is clearly indicated. There will be practically no adequate way out of the situation, and those half-open windows of opportunities that are still there will be completely closed. Even with this not very attractive scenario, there are serious chances to get out of the storm with a relatively whole state ship and with a bonus in the form of the Crimea. For this you need a set of measures, about which you need to write not even a separate article, but their cycle. But in big politics it does not happen easily.

Third perspective. It differs from the second scenario by the fact of a coup. There is a change of the first persons of the state, but at the same time the government is not lost (or is lost for a short period). That is, we face the Khrushchev road rather than the path of Gorbachev or Yanukovich. Power structures swear allegiance to the new leadership, the ruble exchange rate in the early days is reduced, but quickly returns to normal.

This scenario, of course, cannot be called neither bright, nor even more desirable. The very fact that the crisis has led to a coup already speaks of a dead end in the development of a state project. But there is definitely nothing catastrophic here. Moreover, there is a certain hope that the new faces will propose a different model for the development of the country, since the current model has certainly exhausted itself.

Analysts and political analysts single out conditionally two clans in the top leadership of the country that can claim full power: siloviki and liberals. Power resource against financial. In the context of specifically Russia, historically, it was power that was decisive, unlike the West, where financial resources meant a lot. So the author of this review would rather have put it on the security officials, although for sure nothing can be said. And we certainly cannot talk about what the policy of the new government will be, in particular, the fate of the Crimea. Here everything will depend on the specific clan, the personalities of the first persons and the internal and external political situation.

Another advantage of the siloviki over the liberals is that they have ideological freedom of choice. Depending on the situation, they can become nationalists, communists ... anyone. We recall, for example, the Iraqi military leaders who, after the collapse of Saddam Hussein, eventually changed their colors into ISIS Islamists, or former army and naval chiefs of the Reich that under the FRG became ardent adherents of democracy.

A liberal can only be a liberal. He is only capable of small (more ostentatious) movements within a narrow liberal model, risking to go beyond it, where he will cease to be a liberal. And it is precisely the liberal ideology that significantly limits the choice of means to achieve the goals, which, when confronted with a less discriminating and more decisive side, can become a determining factor.



Fourth perspective. The most frightening. By analogy, this is the path of the collapse of the USSR or modern Ukraine. The coup is delayed and is accompanied by chaos and loss of control. Such an outcome is possible if, instead of establishing management and emergency creation of the current transitional model, the coup, regardless of clan affiliation, gets bogged down in the redistribution of power and the most delicious property. Having been deprived of the coordinating and stabilizing role of the Center, the regions are forced to independently steer the economic and then other activities. Sly to local authorities will be reassigned to the security forces, including the army; There will be its own financial system. Somewhere, without fanfare, something like this is already happening.

The final consequences for the country will be determined by the depth and duration of the paralysis of power. With obvious and complete discord, the intervention of external forces is almost inevitable, especially in peripheral isolated territories. Germany occupies Kaliningrad, Japan - the Southern Kuriles (in its full version - all of Sakhalin and all the Kuriles), Ukraine (if it persists by that time) will try to return the Crimea, and so on. The coalition will decide on a further invasion of continental Russia, only by being convinced of the complete impunity of such a campaign.

If Moscow is able to ultimately take control of the situation and prevent the country from spreading to parts, then by the end of the acute phase of the crisis it will find itself in a difficult geopolitical situation: the loss of a number of regions, strengthened neighbors across the continent and frustrated finances. In order to reassure readers, I want to immediately notice that the worst scenario is unlikely, if only because the collapse of the Soviet Union has already passed before the eyes of current generations, when everyone also wanted to change the stiffened party apparatus, and eventually collapsed the country. Therefore, the fifth, the darkest scenario is not here.

History unequivocally asserts that for Russia the betrayal of the privileged class is far worse than the most dangerous external enemy. Thus, the creation of an artificial food shortage, among other things, caused the February Revolution in Petrograd — despite the fact that thousands of food-carrying wagons were purposefully accumulated at access stations. Similarly, discontent was provoked in the USSR - in Moscow, Leningrad, Kiev and other major cities of the USSR in 1989-1991. Naturally, only people with serious power and influence, who could give the appropriate orders, could arrange this. We are talking about sabotage and sabotage on a particularly large scale - with many victims, we note. And it does not matter what goals each particular official was guided by: selfish - to cash in on the sale of the deficit, or political - to ride the wave of popular anger. The latter, by the way, is quite suitable for the definition of terrorism.

The revelation, condemnation by the open court and the public execution of such figures may well serve as an admonishing factor for all the others who were going to go the same way. Exceptional times require exceptional solutions, for which the descendants will say only thanks.

Another danger is that at the present moment too many players are interested in liquidating Russia; if not completely, then in its present boundaries for sure. Individually, each of these players is not particularly strong, but together they are capable of much. In addition, if earlier Moscow could play on their contradictions, now, on the other side, an anti-Russian consensus has been reached. To break it is an extremely difficult task, achieved through an incredibly subtle political game, multiplied by a favorable set of circumstances.

Russia is a strong and strong country with a large margin of safety. But this stock is not infinite. The question of the fate of the state for ordinary Russian people is a question not only of material well-being, but also of simple physical survival.
Author:
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  1. aak
    aak 15 July 2015 06: 12
    +15
    Forecasting is generally a thankless task, but there are many elements of the requiem ...
    1. sledgehammer102
      sledgehammer102 15 July 2015 06: 51
      +12
      Quote: aak
      Forecasting is generally a thankless task, but there are many elements of the requiem ..

      Already how many analysts have managed to give forecasts for the Ukrainian crisis. and not one admitted that he had done it.
      Nobody talked about the return of Crimea, nobody talked about the food embargo, the Turkish stream or the second branch of the northern one. Everything was "all PPC, everything is gone !!! We are finished!"

      Khazin won has been speaking for 15 years. that "Russia has 5 years left" and nothing, they still refer to him as an expert.

      And this article is from the same series.
      1. prosto_rgb
        prosto_rgb 15 July 2015 07: 33
        +5
        Quote: sledgehammer102
        Khazin won has been speaking for 15 years. that "Russia has 5 years left" and nothing, they still refer to him as an expert.

        And this article is from the same series.

        Ага.
        Reminds:
        - They said to you: come TOMORROW, and you came again today.
      2. Penetrator
        Penetrator 15 July 2015 08: 24
        -1
        And this article is from the same series.

        This is Kabardin! I wonder why in his article there is no obligatory # Putin investment
        1. Kibalchish
          15 July 2015 08: 34
          +12
          It's too late to introduce. Time has passed. Now we have to think how to fight off ourselves. The Boeing Tribunal is not being assembled for nothing.

          By the way, I propose similar texts also because they reflect the split opinion of the patriotic part of citizens regarding state policy. This in itself reflects its debate, to put it mildly. That is, after each such text, the split is 50 / 50 - / +. Or 60 / 40. That is, there is already something to think about. People love their homeland, but essentially stand in opposite positions. Mini social research.

          By the way, liberals guard me as a stigma.
          1. Cat man null
            Cat man null 15 July 2015 16: 23
            -2
            Quote: Kibalchish
            By the way, I suggest similar texts also and then that they reflect cracked the opinion of the patriotic part of citizens regarding public policy.

            Well, well ...

            Quote: Kibalchish
            That is, after each such text, a split of 50/50 - / +. Or 60/40.

            This is not the attitude of "citizens" to state policy. This is the attitude of "citizens" to state policy in your interpretation. Or to the interpretation itself laughing

            Quote: Kibalchish
            That is, there is already something to think about

            Yes to you.

            Quote: Kibalchish
            Mini social research.

            I would call a provocation and stupid quacking dough.

            Quote: Kibalchish
            By the way, liberals guard me as a stigma.

            Well, yes .. "yes, I'm yours with all my heart, out - liberals don't like me".. request

            Kabardin .. hacks no one likes, as a rule ..
        2. BMW
          BMW 15 July 2015 09: 02
          +21
          And I added the article: "If you want peace, prepare for war."
          In general, one must always be prepared for the worst, especially at the state level: "do not renounce your wallet and prison".
          Already tired of YOUR "and us - the army, we will win all", like the man will endure everything, and the Slavic world even more so.
    2. SibSlavRus
      SibSlavRus 15 July 2015 08: 31
      +19
      These are not forecasts, as you think, these are options for the development of events under certain circumstances. Yes, and futurological methods are not here.
      And the article is not even bad as food for the mind, thoughts. And lately, even more optimists have divorced than before the First and Second World Wars.
    3. andrejwz
      andrejwz 15 July 2015 11: 58
      +1
      Quote: aak
      Forecasting is generally a thankless task, but there are many elements of the requiem ...

      Giving forecasts is very grateful in the sense of earnings of forecasters. Otherwise, they would not have divorced so many. Another thing is that quantity is not always ensured by quality.
    4. Mark Alekseevich
      Mark Alekseevich 15 July 2015 12: 38
      +11
      Another advantage of the siloviki over the liberals is that they have ideological freedom of choice ...
    5. Vadim237
      Vadim237 15 July 2015 19: 06
      0
      Forecast forecasts - and the realities will be different.
  2. vasiliysxx
    vasiliysxx 15 July 2015 06: 19
    +12
    In the United States, twenty years are given, in my opinion, if you call for the overthrow of the existing system and leadership, and we have schwonders already completely unbelted, where is the landing ?!
    1. Tanais
      Tanais 15 July 2015 06: 32
      +14
      The first perspective. She can be called optimistic. It provides for the successful exit of Russia from the economic blockade and the political crisis with the least losses. Its implementation depends on a whole chain of factors, starting from miscalculations of opponents, ending with a successful combination of circumstances. In the absence of a coherent foreign policy strategy, one will have to rely on them.

      Again the notorious "ABOS"? "With the flow", and there, "Where will the curve lead?"

      We feel the "indistinctness of foreign policy", as a particular, in the Donbass. Actually, the "duality" of the situation is that the political leadership of the Russian Federation does not give a clear definition of how it sees the fate of the DPR-LPR.
      Even if we proceed from what has been and is being declared about "commitment to the preservation of a united Ukraine", then not a word about WHAT UKRAINE SHOULD BECOME FOR THIS, as well as about who will promote and control these processes
      There is something in the "Minsk Agreements" about "constitutional reform", about other vague things ... ZERO.
    2. candy wrapper13
      candy wrapper13 15 July 2015 07: 34
      +13
      * where is the landing?! *- a man with a machine gun drops in at a meeting of the government of the Russian Federation
      -Where Shoigu?
      -here (in chorus)
      -Dog down brother and I’ll hook by accident
    3. Tambov Wolf
      Tambov Wolf 15 July 2015 13: 22
      +11
      Quote: vasiliysxx
      In the United States, twenty years are given, in my opinion, if you call for the overthrow of the existing system and leadership, and we have schwonders already completely unbelted, where is the landing ?!

      And who should plant it if the liberals are at the helm. Himself, or something. Narusev wants to kill all the Russian people, and what? Nothing. If you say that it is necessary to plant and shoot enemies of the people, oligarchs and other evil spirits, then Article 282 is guaranteed to you, if a Tajik beat a Russian, this is a domestic conflict, and if a Russian is a Tajik, then interethnic enmity. .In our country, we are not masters. Even here on the site call "God's chosen" nation by its own word, it will be cut out or banned. What kind of planting, it is the Russian people who are imprisoned, and the rest are stealing and dancing.
      1. Noncombatant
        Noncombatant 15 July 2015 15: 19
        +8
        Tambov Wolf, to the point! "Even here on the site, call the" God's chosen "nation by its native word, it will be cut out or banned."

        The desire to call a spade a spade has always been punished in the world, starting with Socrates. In Russia, the ferocity of punishment has reached its zenith in modern times. The Russians mocked the whole XX century, and continue in the XXI.

        As for the "chosen nation", the most important Nazis are they.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. mervino2007
        mervino2007 16 July 2015 01: 11
        0
        Quote: Tambov Wolf
        And who should plant if liberals are at the helm.

        The elite cannot be remade; the elite must be taken under control. Then there will be no second 1612. Only to whom?
    4. vasyukov
      vasyukov 15 July 2015 14: 55
      +6
      In the United States, people of color are more often imprisoned for the same crime than whites, and in our country, according to Article 282, they imprison indigenous people, that is, Russians, the founders of the state, at the same time, newcomers are qualified under other articles, domestic. their own, so that strangers are afraid? "Uh-huh. In the same Caucasus, in Central Asia, if a local bangs a Russian, he will not get anything, even reward. This also happens in all Islamist countries such as Egypt, Arabia, Turkey, etc. to defend, so immediately on the surface slogans like "Russians, forward", but how to solve social problems or give citizenship to Russians from the former republics, like this: Russian, move over, Uzbek, come in! Let the Muskvabad residents defend their "homeland".
      1. Allitet
        Allitet 16 July 2015 22: 28
        0
        Quote: vasyukov
        In the United States, people of color are more often imprisoned for the same crime than whites, and in our country, according to Article 282, they imprison indigenous people, that is, Russians, the founders of the state, at the same time, newcomers are qualified under other articles, domestic. their own, so that strangers are afraid? "Uh-huh. In the same Caucasus, in Central Asia, if a local bangs a Russian, he will not get anything, even reward. This also happens in all Islamist countries such as Egypt, Arabia, Turkey, etc. to defend, so immediately on the surface slogans like "Russians, forward", but how to solve social problems or give citizenship to Russians from the former republics, like this: Russian, move over, Uzbek, come in! Let the Muskvabad residents defend their "homeland".
        1. Allitet
          Allitet 16 July 2015 22: 59
          0
          Power has always been a tool for suppressing dissent, especially in Russia it has always been. This situation now has changed radically. Freedom has become greater in all respects. Even over the top. But the authorities nevertheless became closer to the people and more truth appeared than propaganda. During the Great Patriotic War, especially at the beginning, our army was defeated even due to deceitful propaganda and disrespect of the country's authorities to the people. And now the era of mutual respect and trust in each other should come. Only in this way can we win. Every Russian should know that his country needs him and that he is respected here.
  3. kolyhalovs
    kolyhalovs 15 July 2015 06: 24
    +11
    The fact that the crisis has led to a coup already speaks of a deadlock in the development of the state project. But there is definitely nothing catastrophic here.


    The author hovers in some other reality. If there is a coup, someone has to do it, right. What forces are there in our country? I see only two: the first is purely oligarchic, the second is a cross between the oligarchy and the KGB (Fursov calls them "clerks" and "controllers"). In 1999 there was a coup. The second force came to power, put Putin in. Now our "partners" are asleep and see a coup when the first one comes to power again. These same "partners" provide appropriate support, but also put forward conditions. And if our liberals begin to steer again, they will fulfill these conditions in the first place.

    The first and third options do not exist. Only the second, fourth and fifth, about which the author is not aware. But he is.
    1. rosarioagro
      rosarioagro 15 July 2015 08: 26
      0
      Quote: kolyhalovs
      the third option does not exist

      was in 1964
      1. kolyhalovs
        kolyhalovs 15 July 2015 09: 07
        +2
        An article about forecasts, and you about history. It’s ridiculous. In history, an incredible bunch of all kinds of coups, well, he did not describe them all. I repeat. Under current conditions, the situation cannot develop in either the first or the third option. These options are far-fetched to ensure beautiful design options in descending order.
        1. rosarioagro
          rosarioagro 15 July 2015 18: 32
          +1
          Quote: kolyhalovs
          and you are about the story. Funny

          not funny, Istorya, you know, likes to repeat
          1. kolyhalovs
            kolyhalovs 16 July 2015 08: 21
            0
            I will repeat the question, why exactly 1964? There were many coups in different countries, with different results, in different ways. Which one will happen again? Why do you think (and the author's) exactly the overthrow of Khrushchev can be repeated now? I believe that this is impossible, that if there is a coup, it will be necessary with the separation of the territories, for such an order (Crimea will definitely be "returned" to Ukraine first of all). And why you think it is not clear. Just. There was a coup in 1964. Well, there was, then what?
    2. Wheel
      Wheel 16 July 2015 03: 01
      0
      Quote: kolyhalovs
      In 1999 there was a coup. A second force came to power, put Putin.

      Oh?
      It seems like the "family" did not suffer, and even acquired ... an effective manager ...
      Quote: kolyhalovs
      And if our liberals begin to steer again, they will fulfill these conditions in the first place.
      But right now, who fed the authorities?
      Not liberals?
      The guarantor has repeatedly openly signified his orientation ...
      Forgotten?
      1. kolyhalovs
        kolyhalovs 16 July 2015 08: 08
        0
        Well, I wrote that the second force is essentially also oligarchic, only with an admixture of GB. And this impurity is very important, because this impurity aims to preserve the integrity of Russia. Limiter, if you like. What existed before 1999 had no restrictions - take away how much you can carry if you own.

        If there were no guarantees for the family, there would be no "I'm tired, I'm leaving." Had we lived to see the elections with our beloved Yeltsin, Putin would obviously not have won the elections. And in four years / eight years would have ruined the country before the civil war. But this is speculation, of course, I do not pretend to be the ultimate truth. But since the author can dream up, I'm worse. smile
        1. kolyhalovs
          kolyhalovs 16 July 2015 08: 26
          0
          Speaking of a family that did not suffer. Chubais did not climb on the rampage - he did not suffer. Rides like cheese in butter. Berezovsky was slightly injured.
  4. Temer
    Temer 15 July 2015 06: 38
    -7
    The author, in my opinion, is a typical "all-out". IMHO. He has all negative options. I did not see the positive anywhere.
    1. pavel_SPB
      pavel_SPB 15 July 2015 15: 25
      +1
      And you are probably a typical cheer patriot .... we will throw all our hats !!! everything is fine with us !!! we are the best !!
  5. Semyonych
    Semyonych 15 July 2015 06: 50
    +12
    An additional scenario, playing into the hands of the Russian Federation, could be the collapse of Ukraine. Not legal yet, but actual, as in Libya or Somalia. That is, a situation in which the "internationally recognized" government controls a certain small territory, and gangs, field commanders dominate in the rest of the country and self-proclaimed states arise within the same village. Having rolled to such a state, Independent, will no longer be able to serve as an adequate tool against Russia.

    Strange conclusion. Is it good to have near by territory, flooded with gangs, petty kings and a bunch of fortress cities. A lot of questions arise. At whose expense are we going to build the border wall? The border is long. At whose expense will we support millions of refugees? With whom we will negotiate. How are we going to fight the thousands of bandits who will climb into Russia? Etc. etc. "Wild Field" is a bad option
    Another unpleasant surprise for the West may be a possible ISIS offensive on the Gulf monarchy. Most likely, it will take about a year to prepare such a campaign, although an earlier speech should not be ruled out. If Saudi Arabia falls, then its neighbors will actually be doomed. The victories of the Islamic State in this field will cause real turmoil in European and American capitals, not to mention the soaring oil prices soaring to insanity.

    Triggering even two or three of these opportunities will become for Russia a real strategic gift of fate. The embodiment of all at once can be considered an intervention of higher forces. However, miracles sometimes happen even in politics, especially if you push them a little.

    I do not agree. 1. From ISIS to our closest ally of Armenia, only 300 km. 2. The militants of the Caucasus together swear allegiance to the Islamic State. There are three, and four, and five. Conclusion: If it is as the author of the article dreams, then Russia will definitely be bad.
    The author does not understand something ..... or vice versa, understands everything, but thinks that readers are stupid.
  6. kuz363
    kuz363 15 July 2015 06: 58
    -28
    Dashingly said about the death penalty, although it has been abolished. A solid minus to the author. But the fact that a population of 140 million cannot effectively manage a huge country is a fact. Of course, it has long been necessary to divide it into independent parts. Or sell to the west.
    1. Kibalchish
      15 July 2015 07: 08
      +12
      The Chinese somehow rule a country where one and a half billion people and nothing.
      1. inkass_98
        inkass_98 15 July 2015 07: 16
        +6
        Quote: Kibalchish
        The Chinese somehow rule a country where one and a half billion people and nothing.

        Igor, he is not telling you about this, but about the discrepancy between the size of the country and the population. That there is a rather controversial point, and the scenario of "help" in bringing these components to "harmony" has already been repeatedly suggested to us by our Western "friends".
        And you, as I have repeatedly written in the commentary on your articles, have loud pessimism going wild. Life, of course, also shook me, but it’s impossible to consider (at the moment) the entire leadership is dumber than myself, the apocalyptic scenario should not work. Otherwise, for all of us, the price is worthless, if we assume the Ruin script, namely, you write about it in the last two versions of your forecast.
        1. Kibalchish
          15 July 2015 07: 51
          +14
          The meaning is this: any option is possible, but one must certainly prepare for the worst. At least out of banal caution. As a person with two degrees in history, I see things without illusion. In our history, it was precisely negative tendencies that often won out, for the masses did not understand where their leaders were leading them. The movement towards correction begins with understanding. With the position of "above, they know better," a simple Russian often found himself deceived - when it turned out that "Above" was ruled just like that. Look, many at first thought that Gorbachev knew what he was doing. In 89-90, literate people rang the bells with might and main, and they were told "everything is fine, everything is according to plan." 1991 came and that's it ...
          Next came the "young reformers" Gaidar & Co. They also talked about them, they say they know what they are doing ...
          And always we were confronted with a fact.

          Here the American government, for example, always calculates the worst case scenario for its country. Therefore, throughout the United States, concentration camps (so far empty) for 25 million people have long been built.
          The Chinese and even the Turks directly talk about the possibility of the collapse of their countries and are looking for a new development model so as not to be at a dead end. And it would not hurt us. But psychologically it is very difficult, I understand.
          1. dmb
            dmb 15 July 2015 09: 19
            +1
            Honestly, dear author, I was interested in the conclusions from the first option. Well, where is aerobatics visible? A similar conclusion could be reached if there was substantial evidence that the long-term crisis of the Western economy, the flows of migrants to Europe and ISIS are the Leader’s favorite brainchild. With all my negative attitude towards him, he is incapable of such a thing, even if he wanted to. History diplomas will certainly give you the opportunity to judge the laws of the development of human society and the power of influence even geniuses, not to mention retired KGB colonels, in enriching theories of the development of human society that have not been clearly noticed.
            1. Kibalchish
              15 July 2015 09: 31
              +7
              The pilotage will be if Putin leads the country out of a difficult situation while others find themselves in g ... to their ears - by 99% by their own stupidity and greed. But I do not believe that the president has such talents. It remains only to hope for luck.
              Like Strelkov, I do not want Putin to leave, not because I like him (to put it mildly, not at all), but because I do not want chaos and corpses. Yanukovych was a villain, but the country stood with him. Removed it - went dance and a bloody carousel.
              1. dmb
                dmb 15 July 2015 10: 28
                +2
                If I understand you correctly, this is from the category of wishes, not supported by anything, and not the result of analysis. Our government’s own stupidity and greed is no less, and perhaps more so, the problem of migrants is just as acute for us. The basis of the expansion of ISIS is the religious component and it is closer and more understandable to traditional Islam than the priests with censers; it’s easier for them to agree among themselves. Good luck does not appear from scratch. What sane person wants blood, but as a historian, can you name examples of bloodless changes in society? It turns out that you leave the blood to our children and grandchildren, but is it good?
                1. Kibalchish
                  15 July 2015 10: 46
                  +1
                  Analysis is now impossible due to constantly changing input data. That which was analyzed six months ago can be safely sent to the furnace - except for trends. Trends are more important than analysis. So now only a forecast with the most common parameters is possible.
            2. Wheel
              Wheel 16 July 2015 03: 09
              0
              Quote: dmb
              Well, where is aerobatics visible?

              I am not an author, but I will answer ... laughing
              When achieving positive results, they always refer to the implementation of the next HSP. hi
              And no other way!
    2. ivanovbg
      ivanovbg 15 July 2015 14: 05
      +3
      And then see how you yourself would not be divided into independent parts (bodies) and not sold on the markets of the West under the hammer. Just three months ago, the sixth year was transplanted to 99-year-old billionaire David Rockefeller! in a row the heart of a young man.

      36 hours after the operation, the 99-year-old billionaire allowed reporters to ask him a few questions.

      “Every time I get a new heart, it’s like a breath of life is rolling through my body. I feel active and alive, ”said the billionaire.
      1. Noncombatant
        Noncombatant 15 July 2015 16: 23
        +8
        Disgusting eyes. Scary. Satanic desire to live through the death of other people is reflected in them.
  7. 1536
    1536 15 July 2015 07: 08
    +3
    Dark, but correct. If we take into account the fact that the American ambassador gives a detailed interview to the Russian press and almost without comment, much can turn out to be real in the near future. We must resist this. But if again, at the direction of the US Embassy, ​​they will remove products from the shelves, then at least we know what to do. It remains to pray to God that this does not happen.
  8. parusnik
    parusnik 15 July 2015 07: 26
    0
    And what ..? Predictions are not grateful .. Even the weather forecasts .. Can we play a political tote? We’ll bet ... Only no one will win .. The casino will take money .. in the sense of the author ..
  9. fomkin
    fomkin 15 July 2015 07: 26
    +28
    While the huckster is in power, the positive vector of development is very doubtful. Or have already forgotten that they are going to lease the Transbaikal lands. And there it will rush. Mr. Bean of the domestic spill got away with surrendering the water area with hydrocarbon reserves. A bad example is contagious. In addition to profit, traders have nothing sacred. Therefore, a different political course is needed. All other options are from the evil one.
    1. m x h a l h
      m x h a l h 15 July 2015 12: 12
      +5
      You don’t even have to argue, the correct article! Look at the rating of the article ... opinions are divided and supportive. The fish goes dead from the head. These mu..ki led by iPhone merged New Russia? leaked !!! The project is closed. What about people? They do not care ... And so in everything and with everyone. The country is full of w .... and prices are rising at all godlessly, including unemployment ... you yourself know everything. And they smile at you from the screen. So they spit on you. Think it over.
    2. sneg6680
      sneg6680 15 July 2015 12: 27
      +5
      Isif Visarionovich is not enough; he is a strong and ambiguous personality!
  10. sv-georgij
    sv-georgij 15 July 2015 07: 27
    +16
    Let's be honest. Is there a liberal government party? Yes, we know what she can do in the 90s. Let us recall our authorities under Gorbachev or under the EBN, how they cawed in the west or will pretend that this was not. How they surrendered a country to the USSR can just as well surrender Russia.
  11. press officer
    press officer 15 July 2015 07: 30
    -12
    vsepropaloooooooooooooooh we will not survive mmmmmmmmmm bezhmmmmmmmmmmm where the truth is not clear .... but putinsili or lost wassat wassat crying fool bully

    Che really think that in Russia the same patients live on their heads as in 404? fool
    Well, Toda good luck to you and your brain! good
    1. SibSlavRus
      SibSlavRus 15 July 2015 09: 32
      +12
      For the press attache!
      And the Russian experience of 1991-1993. Does it remind you of anything? A coup d'etat, trampling and shooting (the only one in the world and history!) Of its Parliament, ethnic wars on the borders of the Former Union, genocide of the Russian-speaking population ... Continue?
      But these are only recent events, where we only narrowly escaped a full-scale civil war. Oh, yes, I forgot to mention the extinction of the population "did not fit into capitalism" in the course of capitalism and reforms.
      Why is no one punished?
      Good luck to you, ignoramus! And your degenerative brain!
      1. samuil60
        samuil60 15 July 2015 23: 02
        +1
        No need to offend anyone. Man is a complex system capable of projecting himself on the outside world. Therefore, even the mood vector of the inhabitants of the state largely determines the fate of the same state. And judging by the replicas on this site, it turns out that about a third of the respondents want to overthrow the current government and a full-blown revolution in the country (why not Ukraine?), Another third - they predict the collapse of Russia and troubles for its inhabitants (why not the State Department?). And those who believe (and sincerely) in the bright future of their country are attacked with insults: after all, in their opinion, only dumb people can believe in Russia. Gentlemen - comrades, you yourself choose your future - BY YOUR FAITH, WILL IT BE YOU! This is said a long time ago and not by us.
  12. sohosha
    sohosha 15 July 2015 07: 41
    +2
    If we adhere to the principle "not for fear, but for conscience", the Russian world will survive all adversity and will go forward.
  13. igorbor65
    igorbor65 15 July 2015 08: 09
    0
    Crap, not an analytical look at what is happening in the country and beyond. Everything is piled up ...
  14. Barboskin
    Barboskin 15 July 2015 08: 14
    -2
    In November, 41 forecasters were also missing. But only one came true - the enemy will be defeated! Victory will be ours!
    1. Tanais
      Tanais 15 July 2015 08: 26
      +4
      Quote: Barboskin
      In November, 41 forecasters were also missing. But only one came true - the enemy will be defeated! Victory will be ours!


      Yes ... But do not forget, there was one more, pre-war, and essentially uncontested: "We will beat the enemy on its territory" ...

    2. Gromm
      Gromm 16 July 2015 09: 40
      0
      Yes, but with what account did they forget this victory? Or did not understand what it was about? Or is it not a pity for the type of Gussians?
  15. anip
    anip 15 July 2015 08: 21
    +18
    La-la, poplars, fig-problems. Yes, the biggest problem is that in the Russian Federation the rich get richer, and the poor get poorer. There, recently the rulers of the country, you see, were surprised that the number of poor in the country grew to 22 million. Yeah, this is statistics. And how many millions of those who did not get into the statistics will get a couple more dozen? Against this background, what can we talk about? And the radiant Mr. is only concerned about regular gas pipelines and his billionaires. Vaughn, Turkey began to work out, so the construction of the stream was frozen there until 2016, only for some reason there is silence on this site, and for some reason (I wonder why?) It is not advertised everywhere. He even screwed up the pipes, let alone the development of industry ...
  16. rosarioagro
    rosarioagro 15 July 2015 08: 23
    +6
    "... another advantage of the siloviki over the liberals is that they have the ideological freedom of choice. Depending on the situation, they can become nationalists, communists ..."

    You can’t enter the same river twice, they won’t be able to be communists again, the fact that they put party cards on the table in 1991, that is betrayed the communist idea, no one will believe in such, betrayed once betray and second
    1. nekot
      nekot 15 July 2015 09: 20
      +6
      And I am more fascinated by the second part of this passage: “A liberal can only be a liberal. He is only capable of small (more ostentatious) movements within the framework of a narrow liberal model, risking going beyond it, where he will cease to be a liberal. And it is the liberal ideology that is essential. limits the choice of means to achieve goals, which, when faced with a less discriminating and more decisive side, can become a determining factor. " This liberals are picky about their means and incapable of maneuvering ??? Traitors in their ideology, which assumes (as practice shows) unprincipledness, turns out to be "limited in the choice of means"))) Is this serious? The choice of means of our liberals is limited only by the instructions of the Western "partners"))
  17. RiverVV
    RiverVV 15 July 2015 08: 30
    -4
    To the author to lift an ass from a chair and to go to work at last. Then he will no longer see global impoverishment, the collapse of Russia and the invasion of coalitions. And if he undertook to prophesy, he should have known that Predictamus must be attuned in verse. Otherwise, not labor.
  18. timhelmet
    timhelmet 15 July 2015 08: 48
    -6
    About a year ago, I read the thoughts of one wise person that sooner or later the five-column marsh reptiles and others sympathetic to them will turn anti-Russian rhetoric to the following formula:
    "You, Putin, well done, and your merits are great. However, now you are starting to give up positions, make mistakes. Therefore, take a pie from the shelf and go into the shadows. As if further the Russian people themselves will determine their own destiny. What you do is contrary to patriotic attitude of people ".

    On patriotism, this bastard is going to leave.
    And now, in fact, an article. 4 options where:
    1. Miracle
    2. A small miracle
    3. Not bad
    4. Reached

    Author. And where is your common sense? Ku-ku! Ku-ku my boy !!!
    Brix, SCO, EAEU, Removal of the embargo from Iran (a matter of time), Greece (European blackmailer), Failed F-35, Udachnaya Armata, Army 2015, exercises, exercises and more exercises. I am silent about the Crimea, the Olympics and the Parade.
    Putin, Shoigu and their team are not sitting idle.
    Inside the country in 2014 is the year of culture, in 2015 - literature. Believe me, culture (as a branch of the public sector) "fried" patriotism among young people for wear and tear (I personally know). This is a tremendous climb.

    Do not know? Do not know? Did you go for a grant at this time?
    Drive again. At all.
    1. Kibalchish
      15 July 2015 09: 05
      +16
      Answer.

      BRICS, SCO, EAEU, etc. I consider either

      a) spokespersons for interests
      b) clubs wishing to get something from the Russian Federation

      I have absolutely no idea how BRICS will help us defend something? Many BRICS countries recognized Crimea? None.

      Olympics, Parades - no comment. And in the army and at work with window dressing I met repeatedly and I see no reason to discuss it.

      To compare the F-35 and "Armata" ... well, I don't even know. Let's then compare the Zhiguli and the guitar.

      The lifting of the embargo from Iran. Perfectly! Now he will enter the hydrocarbon market and collapse the price of oil dollars at 6-7 minimum. And Russian companies, by the way, need to pay almost 40 billion of debt this December, if I am not mistaken. Guess what will happen to the ruble and prices in stores?
      1. Rrrj
        Rrrj 15 July 2015 12: 06
        +2
        Quote: Kibalchish
        Answer.
        BRICS, SCO, EAEU, etc. I consider either
        a) spokespersons for interests
        b) clubs wishing to get something from the Russian Federation
        ...

        + All this hell ... they just try to squeeze something for themselves.
      2. Cat man null
        Cat man null 15 July 2015 13: 58
        -3
        Quote: Kibalchish
        BRICS, SCO, EAEU, etc. I consider either

        a) spokespersons for interests
        b) clubs wishing to get something from the Russian Federation

        Actually, after that the "author" can no longer answer laughing

        I’ll answer, nevertheless, at the same children's level:

        - BRICS, SCO are precisely "according to interests", but conjunctions. Economic, political
        - in any union "everyone wants to get something from everyone." Friendship and fraternization - follow them to kindergarten
        - the question - against whom they are "friends". And how is this "friendship" already being expressed? Answer yourself to it, you will understand a lot yes
    2. Wheel
      Wheel 16 July 2015 03: 18
      -1
      Quote: timhelmet
      Brix, SCO, EAEU, Removal of the embargo from Iran (a matter of time), Greece (European blackmailer), Failed F-35, Udachnaya Armata, Army 2015, exercises, exercises and more exercises. I am silent about the Crimea, the Olympics and the Parade.
      Putin, Shoigu and their team are not sitting idle.
      Inside the country in 2014 is the year of culture, in 2015 - literature. Believe me, culture (as a branch of the public sector) "fried" patriotism among young people for wear and tear (I personally know). This is a tremendous climb.

      The stomach is smarter than the brain because the stomach can vomit. The brain swallows any rubbish. / H Aitmatov /
      Sorry ...., hmm ....
  19. Vladimir
    Vladimir 15 July 2015 09: 11
    0
    The forecast is certainly superficial, more pessimistic, but not everything is really bad in Russia. The country has a huge territory, natural resources and all this must be ruined.
    1. Tanais
      Tanais 15 July 2015 10: 48
      +5
      Quote: Vladimir 
      The forecast is certainly superficial, more pessimistic, but not everything is really bad in Russia. The country has a huge territory, natural resources and all this must be ruined.


      "Example" of the USSR and Ukraine, does it mean anything to you?
      1. Cat man null
        Cat man null 15 July 2015 13: 54
        -1
        Quote: Tanais
        Quote: Vladimir 
        The forecast is certainly superficial, more pessimistic, but not everything is really bad in Russia. The country has a huge territory, natural resources and all this must be ruined.


        "Example" of the USSR and Ukraine, does it mean anything to you?

        - The USSR was torn apart "from above"
        - Ukraine was ruined by local oligarchs with US support

        Question: which of these scenarios can now be implemented in the Russian Federation, without opposition from the current government?

        Answer: no.
        1. rosarioagro
          rosarioagro 15 July 2015 18: 44
          +4
          Quote: Cat Man Null
          - Ukraine was ruined by local oligarchs with US support

          This is also "from the top"

          Quote: Cat Man Null
          Question: which of these scenarios can now be implemented in the Russian Federation

          "The overthrown is overthrown by the overthrow of the overthrown" (C) movie "Crazy" :-)
    2. Tambov Wolf
      Tambov Wolf 15 July 2015 13: 35
      +4
      We managed, the USSR collapsed, and it was more of Russia. They already know the way, they will break it down again, especially if they give green candy wrappers and the shacks in Kursaveli are not taken away. The country needs a new Stalin to destroy all this shusher at the root.
      1. one
        one 16 July 2015 00: 39
        -1
        Quote: Tambov Wolf
        The country needs a new Stalin in order to destroy all this riffraff at the root.

        ba ba ba ...
        Well, sit and wait for someone to come and do everything for you.
        laughing
        just to start remember the Soviet cartoon,
        where the "two from the casket" did everything instead of the boy-
        "- what, and you will eat pies instead of me ?!
        - AHA! "
        laughing
        well so ...
        so get it ...
        the oligarchs rule the country instead of us ?!
        here are the "pies" too, they eat instead of us !!!
        everything is fair!
        hi
    3. one
      one 16 July 2015 00: 20
      0
      Quote: Vladimir
      The country has a vast territory, natural resources and to ruin all this you still have to manage.

      UNDER YOUR STATEMENT, THERE IS NO DATABASE!
      with us, tirelessly, the most efficient state dismantlers work. The USSR is an example to you!
      as well as ingenious dismantlers of economics, healthcare, science and education.
      bully
  20. Alcoholic
    Alcoholic 15 July 2015 09: 14
    +2
    So that the Semites calm down?
    I am begging you.
    (I write "Semites" softly, this means another word)
    Forget it.
    There will be no peace while their "bauble" is covetousness, lives and flourishes wassat
    Goy we are for them.
    That's the whole story.
    Slaves.
    But slaves need to obey.
  21. Gromm
    Gromm 15 July 2015 09: 47
    +12
    The impoverishment in Russia is not virtual, but the real thing. Moreover, it still comes back to today's cannibals to the exploiters. While the critical mass can be restrained by lies and repressions, but if the current rotten policy does not change, no future GDP, EFESEB and EMVEDA will stop the coming chaos. This is an axiom of cruel, unjust societies based on the theft of lies and meanness cannot exist for a long time. If those who have built themselves a nishtyachek on someone else’s grief think that it will be infinite, these guys are cruelly mistaken and believe in the empty dreams of their heart that they have invented.
    1. rosarioagro
      rosarioagro 15 July 2015 18: 45
      +2
      Quote: Gromm
      EFESBE and EMVEDE will not stop the coming chaos.

      Here you are right, and the year 1993 is an example, will join a stronger
  22. ava09
    ava09 15 July 2015 09: 55
    +6
    (C) The identification, conviction by open court and the public execution of such figures may well serve as an instructive factor for everyone else who was about to take the same path. Exceptional times require exceptional decisions, for which posterity will only thank you. (C)

    For the favorable development of Russia, this must be done "yesterday."
  23. lex loci
    lex loci 15 July 2015 10: 00
    +3
    History unequivocally claims that for Russia the betrayal of the privileged class is much worse than the most dangerous external enemy.

    This is the only true statement of the author. The rest is only forecasts, but they are as usual written with a pitchfork on the water ...
  24. Yuyuka
    Yuyuka 15 July 2015 10: 00
    +7
    In vain you, Fedya, for me

    My people are my relatives.

    I'm without thoughts about the people

    I can’t live a day! ..

    In the morning I smear a sandwich -

    Immediately thought: what about the people?

    And the caviar does not climb into the throat,

    And compote does not pour into your mouth!

    I will stand at the window at night.

    And stand all night without sleep

    All worried about Rasee,

    How is it, poor, is she? (C)

    this is the question of those who are above and who are below ... Nothing will change will the sluggish sadomasochistic kama-S-morning ...

    I love to re-read Filatov - this is a storehouse of forecasts and analysts of the Russian state) I especially like this -

    Anto how, your mother,

    Sorry to understand?

    We are not storage what,

    To raise the troubles!

    Who wants to Kolyma -

    Come out one at a time!

    There you will come in a moment

    Enlightenment in the mind!
  25. dmit-xnumx
    dmit-xnumx 15 July 2015 10: 03
    -4
    I believe that the author achieved his fee, and you (and we) convinced the editorial board to pay it to him.
  26. GUKTU
    GUKTU 15 July 2015 10: 40
    +1
    One of our misfortunes, rulers love dollars in their accounts very much. If they had such a love for rubles, then probably the situation was different. In our favor
  27. Ustas
    Ustas 15 July 2015 10: 54
    -2
    Author Igor Kabardin, such as an analyst !?
    Why print this nonsense.
  28. iouris
    iouris 15 July 2015 11: 15
    +1
    The future has already arrived. It's too late to get scared, and fantasy-style predictions are part of propaganda.
  29. kunstkammer
    kunstkammer 15 July 2015 12: 07
    0
    I read ... Yes, really!
    Like in a joke: two news - bad and good. Bad - around der-mo! The good news is there is a lot of shit!
    Igor .. Igor .. (Kabardin)! What are you doing?
    And where to go to a Christian?
  30. BMW
    BMW 15 July 2015 12: 58
    0
    Quote: Semyonitch
    Strange conclusion. Is it really good to have near you territories filled with gangs, petty kings and a bunch of fortified cities.


    And there it already begins a la: "Wedding in Malinovka".
  31. Ttht
    Ttht 15 July 2015 13: 04
    -5
    some kind of muddy forecaster .... and even this has dotted the N - "Silently, the local authorities will be reassigned to the security forces, including the army; there will be a financial system of its own. In some places, quietly, something similar is already happening." ... as it were, something, in some places - the handwriting of Goebbels' propaganda is visible to the blind ... the author is the officer's daughter Igor Kabaldin, you would not have fired so clearly)))
  32. ivanovbg
    ivanovbg 15 July 2015 13: 50
    +1
    Great article, gives a very detailed and realistic analysis. In relation to the policy of the West and the EU - everything is true by 100%, especially in terms of:

    now on the other side an anti-Russian consensus has been reached. To break it is an extremely difficult task, achieved through an incredibly delicate political game, multiplied by a favorable combination of circumstances.


    You can’t even imagine how Western media are invading the peoples of the EU against Russia. After all, this is reporting for the internal, and not for the external media market. A year earlier, this was definitely not. The Bulgarian people somehow hold on and spit, but imagine what’s going on in more pliable countries, like Poland and the Baltic republics, I’m not talking about Western Europe.

    Russia needs to de-energize itself with the East, so that at least India and China would not be thrown out at the most inopportune moment. And with Europe, Japan and the USA - in a war as in a war!
  33. Vlad5307
    Vlad5307 15 July 2015 14: 00
    +2
    So far, the government, as a single team, will not act for the benefit of the development of the domestic market, i.e. the creation of modern industries for the production of means of production and enterprises of the 2nd stage (using these funds), will not bother with the creation of large agricultural enterprises and processing, etc. The existing liberal course of the government will not be able to give the necessary amount of money for the army, navy, space, etc. (as we see today - there are projects, but there is no way to fully realize them). Only a departure from harmful liberal policies in the state can provide a real tool to counter all kinds of blockade of Russia.
    At the dawn of the USSR, it was even worse, although the weapons were less effective, but a pack of dogs could well tire a lonely bear and make him an easy prey for the pack owner. One can also recall the late E. Primakov, who managed to pull the country out of the trap of the 90s and early 2000s. -x. And if you continue to follow the liberal model, then this is definitely what the West needs to "eat" Russia faster and plug the hole of the crisis with Russia's wealth! crying
    1. one
      one 16 July 2015 00: 54
      0
      Quote: Vlad5307
      Until the government, as a team, acts for the good

      until the people of Russia elect the State Duma, which will appoint a government that will "act as a single team for the good," then never
      the government, as a team, will not act for the good

      wassat
      1. ZVEROBOY
        ZVEROBOY 16 July 2015 01: 22
        +1
        Quote: Someone
        until the people of Russia elect the State Duma, which will appoint a government that will "act as a team for the good"

        The government does not appoint a thought, but a president!
        Therefore, "until the people of Russia elect a president who" ..... (further in the text) hi
  34. Redsnowman
    Redsnowman 15 July 2015 15: 47
    -4
    that before the eyes of present generations, the collapse of the USSR
    Before whose eyes there was a disintegration of the scoop, already useless old-timers. The current generation is only aware of it from Kintz Mikhalkov.
    1. Balbesoid
      Balbesoid 15 July 2015 17: 58
      +2
      I would be shy about the old fart! Especially useless. According to statistics, the largest number of survivors in the Second World War is among military personnel aged 35 and above. Young people only heat the furnaces and plug holes! In the head heroism and zero thoughts!)))
  35. Dwarfik
    Dwarfik 15 July 2015 16: 39
    0
    Quote: kuz363
    Dashingly said about the death penalty, although it has been abolished. A solid minus to the author. But the fact that a population of 140 million cannot effectively manage a huge country is a fact. Of course, it has long been necessary to divide it into independent parts. Or sell to the west.

    Hmm, and for such calls, the moderators could punish! This is not even funny. Everyone has the right to their opinion, but it sips on a certain article.
  36. SibSlavRus
    SibSlavRus 15 July 2015 16: 46
    0
    Quote: Cat Man Null

    - The USSR was torn apart "from above"
    - Ukraine was ruined by local oligarchs with US support


    So then, in fact and in fact - both there and there - there is an external factor.
    Only the basic goals and objectives vary, adjusted for time and situation.
  37. Commissar of the NKVD
    Commissar of the NKVD 15 July 2015 16: 56
    0
    Somewhere I read an aphorism: if predictors were hanged after each unfulfilled forecast, then there were no predictors left.
  38. sds87
    sds87 15 July 2015 17: 06
    +1
    In matters of the development of world processes, one cannot be guided by the desired optimistic options. On the contrary, we must proceed from the worst. And the reality is that Russia is surrounded on all sides by states, less well-off territories and minerals.
    The USSR collapsed. Perestroika In the government there are only henchmen of the West. The destruction of the country was quiet, but true. And then a group of security officials and oligarchs smarter in 99 decided to seize control of the country and not hand over the country to the West. Happened. Some of the perestroika oligarchs, together with the security forces, organized the departure of Yeltsin and nominated their man, Putin, to the post of president. Putin placed his people wherever he could remove the pro-Western oligarchs. But he cannot completely get rid of them now. As a result, oligarchic groups among themselves constantly butt in Russia. The West takes advantage of this.
    While the oligarchs are fighting for power, the common people have trouble. The oligarchs cover all their monetary losses at the expense of the people. Cut social programs, pensions, salaries. Fossils cannot be sold, so they are already starting to sell land (China has leased 150000 hectares). Moreover, all the cuts and deprivations of the people are attributed to the actions of the West. Like we have nothing to do with it, it’s Obama and Merkel that it’s your fault that your salaries are falling and everything else is getting more expensive. Science, medicine, education - it is crumbling. It’s also the West’s fault ... About the fact that the oligarchs at the expense of the people cover their losses - not a word. Therefore, all the media are only about Ukraine. On the regions of Russia, information is issued at least. There’s nothing to boast about. And I do not see optimism while the oligarchs butt each other.
  39. forest park 86
    forest park 86 15 July 2015 18: 31
    +6
    af.tar zhzhot! Optimist. A little more and the country will fall apart, itself. Because they steal, they steal terribly. My city (Zvenigorod) was completely plundered. Recently, the last enterprise was closed - a bakery, in its place an entertainment center is planned. Mayors change and steal. The deputy mayor privatized a piece of the street in the center and put up a barrier - private property! And this is 40-50 km from the capital, and a little further devastation as after the war. No need to attack us - everything is all about .se.rem.
  40. Arkon
    Arkon 15 July 2015 19: 48
    -1
    The victories of the “Islamic State” in this field will cause a real flurry in European and American capitals,


    I didn’t read further. The sanity of the author raises serious doubts. And even in my head doubt did not crept into the independence of the IG.
    High-level marketing in the recruitment of new fighters, recent staged shootings of executions uncovered by Cyberbutt, Western instructors. All this is unknown to the author.
    Although it is already known, in my opinion, to all Russian housewives.

    Analiteg!
    The trouble is .....
    1. Igor K
      Igor K 18 July 2015 05: 42
      0
      The tool was al-Qaeda, and all the major terrorist attacks were staged for the sole purpose of convincing the average citizen of universal evil in the person of bearded men, depriving this same average person of his rights and, as a result, of his income, etc.
      World destabilization is the ultimate goal.
  41. wk
    wk 16 July 2015 01: 03
    0
    photo credit .... I remember that "harsh" autumn 1993 .... at each metro station there are cops with Kalash and two armor on each .... it looked a little funny ... but for about a month they walked like that.
  42. Igor K
    Igor K 18 July 2015 05: 37
    0
    The forecast is a forecast, if you open your eyes and take off the glasses, then for the most part the analyst is not a forecast. Gentlemen, comrades, citizens, the process is in full swing and the only thing the question is, in what time frames and under what decorations the process will transfer to new conditions.
    The ultimate limited resources, overpopulation and the approach of the sixth technological order put a bullet in the story that we know, the rest is details.