Sergey Kurginyan: The conflict between Ukraine and Russia is fraught with catastrophe comparable to the collapse of the USSR
“Further escalation of the conflict is fraught with a geopolitical catastrophe both for Russia and for Ukraine, comparable in scale and consequences to the collapse of the USSR,” the experimental creative center, presented by the Foundation’s head Sergei Kurginyan, said in the analytical report of the International Public Fund (OIF).
“The current development of relations between Russia and Ukraine is already called a“ confrontational dive ”. Mutual accusations of the unfriendly economic, informational, and diplomatic policy of a neighbor are growing. The degree of conflict between countries brings the situation to a“ point of no return ”, to a final gap - economic and political,” the report says. According to the foundation, the negotiations of the President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovich with the leadership of the Russian Federation that took place in Moscow on 24 September “though led to encouraging statements by the parties about the prospects for resolving the gas dispute that did not bring a decisive change in relations.” “I have a general feeling of unfavorable situation. There is an elusive strategic well-being that can make you pay a high price for yourself, and this can happen in the coming years,” Kurginyan said.
“To be successful one by one, and simply politically and economically to survive in the current global world plunging into madness is extremely problematic. There are no other (outside the CIS) proposals for unification either in Russia or in Ukraine,” the report says. Kurginyan believes that almost no one in the world has such growth potential as Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus now have. "220 million population, plus natural resources, plus scientific and engineering potential, plus technological chains of industrial relations, plus almost zero cultural and psychological barriers and a single language of communication, plus a well-educated workforce with relatively low consumer demands ... Almost anywhere in the world are such competitive there are no advantages ", - the expert is convinced.
The authors of the report warn: the security of Russia depends on Ukraine. Opponents of the integration of the two countries have long been trying to cut off Russia with the “double Baltic-Black Sea belt of the hostile“ New Europe ”. This is done in order not to give“ German, French, Italian industrial capacities and technologies to unite by land or sea ” - considers Kurginyan. "Unfriendly Ukraine will immediately make a hole in the system of defense, military, and economic security in the western and southern direction. Only direct losses to Russia from the gap with Ukraine will cost the treasury 8-10 billion dollars a year. Kiev will also get it: the industrialized Ukraine does not need the West. They are interested in utilizing Ukrainian resources, fertile soil, developed infrastructure, and industrial demographic potential, the political analyst is convinced. In his opinion, “world civilization” is ready to accept post-Soviet candidates only as “cash cows”.
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