Stanislav Tarasov. Crowds at the throne: Turkey falls into a pre-election fever
In Turkey, the ministers began to resign, almost in batches, under the pretext of the upcoming parliamentary elections on June 7. The fact is that after the regional elections that took place on 30 in March last year, in which the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) won, and then the presidential elections, when the party’s candidate, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, became the country's president, An attempt was made to amend the electoral system, allowing to remove restrictions on the number of continuous terms of premiership, and change the internal statute of the AKP to allow the possibility of being elected to deputies for more than three terms . However, nothing came of it. As a result, over the 70 deputies from the ruling party will not be able to participate in the elections, respectively, will lose the right to hold public office in the future. Among them are persons who are in the closest circle of Erdogan. They are Deputy Prime Ministers Bulent Arınj, Bashir Atalay and Ali Babacan, Minister of Justice Bekir Bozdag, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Taner Yildiz, Foreign Minister Mevlüt ушavuşoлуlu, Deputy Chairman of the Party Huseyn Celik.
Bozdag, as well as the Minister of the Interior Afghan Ala, Minister of Transport, Shipping and Communications Lutfi Elwan recently announced his resignation. Instead, new faces. At the same time, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs declared that “he does not recognize the current Constitution” and that “the country needs a new” Basic Law. He was supported by the outgoing Minister of Justice. For years, the AKP has been fighting for the adoption of constitutional amendments that will change the political landscape, turning Turkey from a parliamentary into a presidential republic. For the changes to take effect, the ruling party needs to get 3 / 5 votes in parliament after two discussions. This has not yet been achieved, the opposition is in the way. Another option is a referendum. But the JDP does not dare to amend the Constitution in a nationwide vote, since sociological measurements show that the party does not have a majority of the electorate.
The main opposition Republican People's Party (RNP) accuses Erdogan of intending to rewrite the Constitution “for himself” (as regards the redistribution of powers from the government to the president). So it is no coincidence that the leader of the RNP, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, said that "on the sidelines of the Turkish intelligence behind the back of the head of the government Ahmet Davutoglu, an operation is underway to dissolve the opposition parties." And here a sharp political intrigue was discovered. Considered one of the most loyal to the president people, the head of Turkish intelligence Hakan Fidan resigned, without coordinating his decision with Erdogan. “Our brother is probably planning to become a deputy or to take another position, or maybe he is counting on other promises given to him,” commented the president. “In general, his request for resignation seems inexpedient to me, but, unfortunately, he has a different opinion.”
According to Turkish press reports, Fidan received a proposal from Davutoglu, although it was previously claimed that Erdogan had the intention to move the former intelligence officer to the post of prime minister. But he seems to have made a bid in the ruling party on the “Davutoglu faction”, which, judging by some signs, began to block with the opposition RNP. By the way, Kilichdaroglu hints that information about the possible dissolution of opposition parties comes precisely from Fidan. In turn, Fuat Avni, a well-informed source in the Turkish ruling class, wrote on Twitter that the former head of intelligence could get not only a post in the cabinet of ministers, but also deprive Erdogan of a political initiative in solving the Kurdish issue, spoiling the “game” with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), imprisoned by Abdullah Ocalan, as well as the "Union of Kurdistan Communities" (KSK).
It turns out that the anti-presidential "bias" in the ruling party decided to neutralize Erdogan with "hardware techniques". Becoming the head of the government and the ruling party, Davutoglu on the eve of the parliamentary elections actually conducts a “personnel purge”, appointing his people to the vacancies in the government. Earlier, in an alliance with Erdogan, he “pushed” Turkish President Abdullah Gul, who expressed his intention to “return to the party”. But provided that he is elected chairman of the AKP. Otherwise, he allegedly threatened to create his own party and go into opposition to both leaders. Davutoglu said he did not intend to change the leadership of the AKP. The fact is that according to closed opinion polls, 76% of members of the ruling party wanted to see Gul as Prime Minister and only 1% supported Davutoglu. Director of the Center for Strategic Studies Kafkassam (Ankara) Hassan Oktay noted that “there was a split between party members Erdogan, Davutoglu and Gul, which will be further aggravated.” According to him, “the appointment of Davutoglu as prime minister went against the aspirations of other factions within the AKP, and it would be difficult for him, on the one hand, to maintain unity in the party, on the other hand to play his game with the president, and with the third to withstand the blows of the opposition.” The pro-government newspaper Yeni Şafak noted that "the resource of political harmony between the Prime Minister and the President is limited." The question is in what condition the ruling party will come to the parliamentary elections.
There are several scenarios. The first is that the JDP receives an absolute majority in the elections and holds 400 deputies to the parliament. Then, using hardware techniques, Erdogan makes the necessary amendments to the Constitution, the parliament votes, Turkey becomes a presidential republic. Second, the ruling party gets a simple majority, which will allow it to preserve a one-party government, but without a chance to implement constitutional changes. Then Davutoglu strengthens its position. Third: the party does not receive a majority of votes and is forced to form a coalition government. In this case, the ministers appointed by the prime minister will have to leave their posts in two months, and the authority of Erdogan himself will be transformed into a nominal ceremonial one. Finally, the fourth: in the words of the chief editor of the Zaman newspaper, Ekrem Dumanly, “the upcoming elections may be the last democratic elections,” since there is a likelihood of a coup, a pretext for which will be the need for “forced actions under the influence of an unexpected internal and external factor”.
The relevance of this scenario is due to the fact that the so-called “Kurdish intifada”, actively fueled by the “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIS), is gaining strength in the region. So from Turkey you should expect new intriguing News.
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