Clinton vs. Bush?
April in the USA will open the official account on presidential nominees. Although the spring of the last year before the election is a traditional time of nomination, in fact the leading candidates have been campaigning since last year, as they say, “without creating a legal entity”.An early start - the elections will be held on November 8. 2016 of the year - in theory, gives you the opportunity to collect more dollars for campaigning efforts. And there are more chances that the nominee will “get accustomed” and will be approved at a party congress at the end of July next year, tentatively in Philadelphia. Although the distillation of the “final presidential product” is still far away, candidate circuits are already beginning to be seen in the cocktail “Elections 2016”.
Judging by the way the events unfold now, the elective battle itself can be quite piquant. In the final battle for the right to lease the White House, the wife of former US President Bill Clinton Hillary Clinton and the son of former President George W. Bush Sr., younger brother of President George W. Bush Jeb Bush, can come together. It will be curious to see which of these close relatives of the former America will find suitable for themselves and decide to endure four years after the departure of Barack Hussein Obama.
The odds of winning Clinton are about 50 on 50. However, this ratio can quickly change. In any direction.
В stories The United States rarely had a candidate from one party come to power after two terms of “reign” in the White House of the president from the same party. With the Democrats, this happened the last time in the 1856 year, when the Americans, instead of one Democrat, elected 15 as president of another Democrat, James Buchanan. Democrat Franklin Roosevelt, who was elected to the post for four terms (from 1932 to 1944 a year) died in the first year of the last term, does not count. These were the special circumstances of the Great Depression and the Second World War. And the two-term presidential amendment was adopted only in 1951 year.
Traditionally, after World War II, the democratic administration replaces the republican after 8 years of rule with the metronome regularity. America usually gets tired of the lingering one-party system of the White House, and it is embraced by the obsessive desire to “air out” the building on Pennsylvania Avenue. And the train of “flaws” and “failures” of the outgoing president - and they are everywhere in Obama - always touches the popularity of his possible successor, party member. If Hillary still succeeds in changing this rhythm of the political metronome, then she will set two records at once. The first woman and the first Democrat of the “third presidential conscription” in a row. Chances are there.
The former secretaries of state and senator Hillary Clinton among the Democrats have perhaps not been appointed political messiahs. If, in the remaining time, the Republicans do not excavate Hillary for something completely scandalous of her working, political or personal life, and if the sky does not fall to the ground, then it will almost certainly be “consecrated” to the White House by a democratic congress.
Think about the nomination of the former Governor of Maryland, Martin O'Malley and Senator Jim Webb. Here, by and large, the whole democratic "leadership group."
Hillary Clinton, with her political "weight", easily bypasses all other applicants. The Democrats simply have no other candidates of such scale and experience. It seems to be thinking about the nomination of the current Vice-President Joseph Biden. But with his reputation as a political equilibrist, a master of political blunders, mistakes and reservations, an inveterate talker - in the Senate, assistants called Joe an "unguided rocket" because they could never predict at the beginning of the boss's speech where he would "stop" by his end - hardly whether Biden will be an acceptable contender for Republican candidates. Yes, and his age is no longer elective. At the beginning of the term, Biden will be 72 of the year.
So far, the oldest president at the time of the inauguration was Ronald Reagan: when he took office, he was almost 70 years old - without 17 days.
Hillary, however, is also “not a girl,” and if she is elected, she will become not only the first woman president, but also the second, after Reagan, “veteran” in the Oval Office: she will be 69 for three months. Ronnie himself always parried his opponents' attacks on his age with caustic "carcass" of the type: America must be managed by experienced people, not milk suckers. For Reagan, it worked. In general, 69 years and not so hot what age for a politician. There are presidents and older. Although Hillary is such a "wealth of the years" is hardly on hand.
But, be that as it may, she has already staffed her election team, adding to her the presidential aides on political strategy, public relations and public relations who have just left the Obama administration. Clinton announced that she intends to raise at least 1 a billion dollars into her election fund. In fact, she will need much more to win. Barack Obama has pushed a billion dollars into his 1,2 campaign. And this is not counting the multimillion-dollar investments in it by the “Political Action Committees” and the so-called “Political Action Supercommittees” - large lobbying political groups created solely to agitate for “their” candidate.
"Supercommittees" - a purely American invention. Still, it’s not for nothing that Washington is called the city with the largest concentration of lawyers per square meter in the world. By law, individual contributions to a candidate’s election funds should not exceed 2,5 thousands of dollars. Washington lawyers, creating a "super", bypassed federal law, like a telegraph pole. These supercommittees do not have the right to directly invest their money in the treasury of candidates. But they have the right, without any restrictions, to spend dollars on their advertising in print and on television. Though millions, even trillions. To the last, however, the case has not yet reached.
Although the price of the "entrance ticket" to the White House is now such that find out about them, say, John F. Kennedy before the 1960 election of the year, he might have lost his balance of mind.
The youngest, 35, the US president, spent thousands of dollars on the 360 campaign. Even if they are translated into today's prices, this will amount to “miserable” 2 million dollars.
A lot, of course. Although, on the other hand - how to evaluate. If we consider that we are talking about the place of the “manager” in the economy with GDP in 17 trillions of dollars in the largest nuclear power with a claim to world domination, the scale of power and influence in the world, which no lords, kings and dictators of the past could have so with this billion bust.
Be that as it may, in early April, Hillary should officially announce the nomination of her candidacy for official approval. Whether it will be approved in Philadelphia at the convention is not a question solved for all 100 percent. At the beginning of the 2008 campaign of the year, it also seemed that “the lady in the pantsuit” - Mrs almost does not wear skirts - can already put the statement of the candidate in her pocket. But a little-known candidate Barack Obama appeared, and moved Clinton aside. Democrats now have no contenders of Hillary’s caliber. But it’s still not a fact that the case will not turn against her closer to the national congress.
Hillary's trouble has always been in Hillary herself. It hurts so much for Mrs., as if it were more delicate, so as not to offend, the “abrasive nature”. Communication with sandpaper, as recalled by the assistants and allies of her husband, the president and fellow Senate, often seemed to be affectionate than the touch of Hillary. Her "ride" with the statement in 2008 year, again, according to the top Democrats, because they were afraid: where Hillary might lead her cool temper. And will it not become like that in the White House to “hit the squares” so that not only “enemies”, but also those who doubt, will fall under the hand.
It is said that now Mrs. Clinton has become much "softer" than she was in 2008 year. Age contributes to this. Although, on the other hand, which metamorphosis you will not agree to for the sake of "enthronement".
As for the experience of Hillary as Secretary of State, which she was until February 2013, he, it must be said, is somewhat exaggerated. According to most experts, Clinton, when he was in this post, did not make any foreign policy breakthroughs. And the 68 th foreign minister, John Kerry, in fact, received from the 67 th chapter only a half-faced foreign policy framework.
Perhaps the only thing that experts disagree on is the degree of influence on such unfinished buildings by Hillary Clinton personally. It is clear that foreign policy is determined by President Barack Obama and his advisers. And the US Secretary of State was, as you know, a man strong enough and strong enough to firmly pursue his course. But despite this, it was ineffective in key areas. In the Middle East, there has never been peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Iranian nuclear issue is not resolved. Neither in Afghanistan nor in Iraq is there a hint of stability. Almost the entire Arab north of Africa is overwhelmed by instability. Libya is torn to shreds. The "Islamic state" is advancing across the front. The policy on Syria has completely failed.
The "reset" with Russia, the United States, too, failed. And the question is, was there anyway?
Most likely, on the ill-fated button donated by Clinton to the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, he had to write “Reorientation” - exactly what was expected from Moscow in Washington. And they were very surprised why Russia is not ready for a "pullback" in humiliatingly accommodating Yeltsin times.
True, it would be unfair to blame Hillary exclusively for all the failures. The US foreign policy problems are structural. The US continues to act like winners in the Cold War, and everyone hopes to return Russia to a state of defeat. So that, at its own discretion, “cut” regimes along the perimeter of Russian borders, like in Ukraine, substitute NATO for UN and adjust the foundations of international law “under circumstances” - as happened with Kosovo and Yugoslavia.
American bookmakers have slowly begun to take bets on applicants. Hillary is still bidding 5 to 4. That is, with a high probability of victory: for every four dollars in case of victory, you get five. No one else among the Democrats is close to her. Here, all the others have, in the opinion of the bookmakers, chances of “winning” in the ratio of 1 to 35 or 1 to 100.
Republicans, unlike Democrats, are already forming something like a crowd in the queue for the White House. The candidates are serious and not very well under a couple of dozen - if you include exotic ones.
The younger brother of President George W. Bush and the son of President George W. Bush, the former governor of the state of Florida, Jeb Bush, are already actively campaigning. He is still in the top five with Governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker, Senator Rand Paul, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Senator Marc Rubio. Their chances of winning are ranked from 2 to 11 from Bush to 12 to 1 from Mark Rubio. In general, pretty close. Although other applicants are not so far away from the top five. Although there are such colorful and anecdotal characters as multi-billionaire developer Donald Trump. But for him the election is rather a circus than a serious attempt to get into the White House.
Whom the Republicans will select at the national convention in Cleveland in 2016, the Republicans, no one will say now. But, looking at the “republican list”, Hillary should be satisfied: the set is made up such that her chances of being elected are not diminished, but added. Unless the economy collapses - which is unlikely, it is now on the rise - then she will be lucky. How lucky in 2008 was Barack Obama with an unelectable gerontological rival, Senator John McCain.
Only it will be a little different luck. And it’s all about the fact that the Republicans ’economic program is so blurred that it looks like a viscous substance from difficultly matched ideas or programs. On the one hand, a promise to cut taxes, “reduce the government” and increase defense spending, and on the other, promises not to retreat in the field of social security and health care. How all this can be combined on the basis of a compressed tax base is difficult to understand. But the "muddier" the republican program, the better for Hillary, who has never been strong in economics.
Up to the caliber of Hillary, none of the Republicans do not hold out. Maybe it will save Mrs. Clinton. And even, most likely, will save. It is not good, of course, to enter the White House again on the unsuitable qualities of rivals, but since such times have come ...
Democrats are already scaring America with a refrain: "Jeb Bush for the presidency in 2016 is the third term of the entire Bush family." That, in general, is not without meaning. On Jeb, from which side you don’t look, all the birthmarks of a famous Texan family climb.
If we take the list of donors to his election funds, it’s like a carbon copy composed of those who “threw off” on George W. Bush and George W. Bush. 62-year-old Bush-small’s advisors also all belong to former elder brother’s assistants, including former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. So, analysts, analyzing Jeb’s political position, make it impossible for anyone to determine where the father and eldest son ends and the younger son begins. Although Jeb himself claims that, although he loves and respects his father and older brother, he is a man “self-sufficient” and completely independent in his political convictions. How they differ from the beliefs of his close relatives, he, however, does not explain.
In the governor’s post, politicians really accumulate good experience in public administration. After all, the state is a country in miniature, minus, of course, foreign affairs. In his foreign policy experience, Jeb relies on his expertise in “doing business with foreign countries,” frequent “visiting Israel” and the fact that he “forced himself” before the governorship — and so directly said, forced — to visit Asia. And while often confusing facts, names and concepts. It has already been noted that the number of militants of the “Islamic state” was overstated by almost ten times and distorted the names of foreign statesmen. However, this is Bush family purely. Bush senior also sinned by this. But Bush Jr. was often called sarcastically for George Washington - Dabbya - the distorted sound of the second initial W, or Double-nd - Bush. Something like "George Tary Bars Bush."
In any case, America, in all likelihood, is up to 8, before 2016 in November, to “break its head”. And the question of whether the White House will remain "blue" - the color of the Democrats, or "turn red" in the color of the Republicans, will obviously be open until the very day of the vote. Most US experts believe that everything will determine, if not the "last inch", then certainly the last percentage or two, and maybe even their tenths.
In general, it is too early to predict a victory for either the Republicans or the Democrats in 2016. For Hillary Clinton, everything will depend on who the Republicans will set against her in the fight for the White House. Equally, it is not worth while to pay special attention to any harsh foreign policy statements by the candidates. With them every four years, the same metamorphoses occur, predictable and explicable. After winning the primary elections, they change, if not the color, then the tonality of the coloring. The secret here is very simple: in the primary elections they need to win the votes of activists of the party core. For Democrats, those are always more inclined towards left-wing liberalism, and among Republicans, towards severe conservatism.
But after winning the "intermediate races", we have to fight for the votes of all America. Therefore, both Democrats and Republicans begin the usual movement "from the edges" to the center. Their positions, including foreign policy, are aligned and modified and, naturally, converge.
You can’t go to full use of the whole country, the White House with all its 132 rooms and 32 bathrooms, a cinema, a bowling alley, pools, billiards, tennis courts, a mini golf course, snipers and rocket men on the roof. And plus a free summer cottage at Camp David. In general, 1 is worth a billion on a campaign and deviations from its own political line ...
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