Stratfor: without intimidation by the FSB, fragmentation of Russia cannot be prevented
Stratfor launches its ten-year predictions from 1996; the previous one, released in 2010, predicted a strengthening of nationalist sentiment in the European Union, a noticeable slowdown in the Chinese economy and Russia's efforts to move from the export of raw materials to the export of more complex products from it. The new forecast describes a further split in Europe, the fragmentation of Russia and a decrease in the degree of US involvement in the affairs of the rest of the world. Slon selected key points from the analyst report.
Russia
According to analysts at Stratfor, the Russian Federation is unlikely to exist in its current form without additional measures from the security forces. A system in which revenues go to Moscow and are later distributed to the regions, and sensitivity to fluctuations in energy prices will lead to the fact that Moscow will not be able to support regional infrastructure. In this case, the regions will try to provide for themselves, the formation of formal and informal autonomous units will begin, Stratfor believes; economic relations of the center and periphery will weaken.
Without the intimidation of the FSB, the fragmentation of Russia will not be prevented, the authors of the forecast say.
In the meantime, Poland, Romania, and Hungary will try to draw Ukraine and Belarus into an ally; Karelia, believed in Stratfor, will try to get close to Finland; Kremlin control over the North Caucasus may "evaporate"; and the Far Eastern territories, more connected with China, Japan and the USA, than with Moscow, will also look for certain options for independence. At the same time, there will be no direct "uprising" against Moscow, analysts emphasize.
Europe
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The European Union will not be able to solve its main problem, which concerns the free trade zone and has now “reached a critical point”. A single policy is not suitable for the whole of Europe, because that which benefits one country may harm others. Euroscepticism and movements in favor of secessions will intensify. In a sense, the EU can continue to function, but economic, political and military relations will be managed more likely by unions of two or several states, and there will not be a single force that will direct the whole of Europe. In Germany, an economic downturn will begin, which will lead to a social and political crisis. The influence of Berlin in Europe will weaken.
At the same time, Poland will receive greater political and economic influence. According to analysts, this country will become the dominant strategic force of the Central European Plain and the leader of the anti-Russian coalition.
USA
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Despite the fact that Stratfor predicts Russia's decline, Moscow may try to pursue a policy of expansion and even succeed in it. Therefore, Washington will try to create alliances outside of NATO in order to gain the maximum number of potential allies and be ready to "use force in proportion to the threat" if necessary. Involvement in the problems of Europe and the Middle East will be minimal, the authors of the forecast believe.
Also America approximately in 15 years will face a serious internal crisis, warn Stratfor: this will be a middle class crisis, which is already noticeable. Analysts' calculation is based on the assumption that there are fifty-year cycles in the United States that end with significant economic or social problems; the last one is just about to end. Nevertheless, experts write that, thanks to their protection from fluctuations in world markets, the United States will remain the “stable heart” of the international system.
Near East
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In the Middle East, power is held not by governments, but by separate groups; This trend will continue, and the United States will not be able to restrain the process, although most countries in the region will expect them to intervene, according to Stratfor. The only country that will remain interested in stabilizing Syria and Iraq will be Turkey, and it will have to intervene in the affairs of its southern neighbors in order to preserve the security of its borders. Turkey’s own forces will not be enough for this, therefore Ankara will ask for the support of Washington. For this, she will have to unite with the United States in the matter of containing Russia in the Black Sea region. In addition, as it fragmented in Europe, Turkey’s influence would spread to the west, particularly to the Balkans. In the next ten years, Turkey will become a significant force in its region.
East Asia
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In Asia, we will see an increase in the naval forces of China and Japan, which, however, will not compete for the disputed islands, but for influence over Russian coastal territories, which will seek autonomy from Moscow. This influence will be the central unresolved issue of the region, experts predict.
In parallel, the role of China as a production hub will be divided among themselves by several new countries. According to analysts at Stratfor, these will be the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Dominican Republic, Peru, Nicaragua and Mexico. By the end of the next decade, thanks to increased investment and the transfer of production here (from clothing to electronics), these countries will enter a period of intensive growth, similar to what China has experienced.
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