Egypt vs. Israel: What Next?

Egypt vs. Israel: What Next?

The assault on the Israeli embassy in Cairo on September 9 and the urgent departure of the Israeli ambassador to Egypt from Egyptian territory provoke a new era in relations between the two states - a day of outright opposition. The Egyptian military regime was on the verge of viewing partnerships with Israel that had lasted for the last 30 years.

In Cairo, 11 September, a trial began in which a lawyer asks the Egyptian government to expel the Israeli ambassador to Cairo for killing Egyptian police on the Egyptian-Israeli border, and the judiciary plans to file a lawsuit against Israel for $ 5 billion in compensation for the incident. Actually, this court was needed to legitimize retroactively expelling the Israeli ambassador and attacking the Israeli embassy.

The April 6 Youth Movement, which was one of the organizers of the protests, said it had stopped the rallies by sending its message to the “Zionist enemy.” "The Egyptians wanted to prove that the public can impose their will on the rulers," the statement of this group says.

The April 6 Youth Movement put forward five demands on Israel in this statement. Namely: an Israeli apology must be made, a joint investigation should be conducted of the incident, the Israeli ambassador must be expelled and the Egyptian ambassador from Tel Aviv recalled. In addition, changes must be made to the 1979 Camp David Agreement with Israel.

Meanwhile, Israeli Knesset speaker Reuven Rivlin stressed that any attempts to make changes to the 1979 peace agreements must be approved by the Knesset. So Rivlin commented on the recognition by the Israeli Cabinet of Ministers of the need to deploy additional Egyptian troops in order to increase security in the Sinai Peninsula. The Egyptian military, who took power after the overthrow of the Hosni Mubarak regime in February 2011, previously announced that they would stick to this treaty.

The danger of such seemingly minor changes to the agreement lies in the fact that it has already begun to make changes. At first, as if insignificant, having a purely procedural nature. But this laid the foundation for the precedent that the Camp David agreement can be viewed at all. So, the next revision, in favor of the political situation, may well be more serious changes that will already concern the foundations of the Egyptian-Israeli agreements.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that in seven months the military regime has little to report to the Egyptian people. There are clearly no positive developments, so it is likely that the military rulers, in order to divert attention from what is happening in Egypt, will be forced to secretly initiate a new Egyptian revolution - the anti-Israeli one.

This scenario cannot be ruled out, as the statements of some Egyptian experts, who now openly declare, confirm this: “Young Egyptians have proved to the world that no matter how persistently the West protects its Israeli clients from Islamic peoples, they will never agree to the existence of the Zionist education. And the agreements concluded earlier by the traitorous rulers are now exclusively on paper, and they will not protect Israel from the just wrath of the Muslims. ”

The process, launched by an attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo, looks like an attempt to return the Middle Eastern tension to its apogee more than 30-year-old. Islamist propaganda that incites the rebellion fires is very much like trying to fish in troubled waters. For all these devastating events, the shadow of Iran is frankly visible, whose actions are aimed at destroying the results of successful and peaceful revolutions in Arab countries in general and in Egypt in particular.

It seems that the military leadership of Egypt should realize that the greatest obstacle to the foreign policy of their country at the time responsible after the revolution is an attempt by external and internal forces to force the Egyptians to reformulate their relations with Israel in one way or another. Indeed, in this case, the value of the Camp David Agreement really becomes nothing more than the value of the paper on which it is printed.

But that's not all. External forces, relying on the remnants of the People’s Democratic Party of the once powerful ruling of President Hosni Mubarak’s times, are using the conflict situation on the Egyptian-Israeli border to block the achievements of the Egyptian revolution. After all, dictatorial ruling regimes in the Arab states and such powerful countries that claim leadership in the Middle East region like Saudi Arabia and Iran are very interested in the failure of the Egyptian revolution. They are afraid of the spread of a revolutionary situation on their territory.

Meanwhile, Israel must understand that after the revolutions of 2011, the Muslim world has changed and the growth of conflicts with Egypt and Turkey can only be a prelude to the confrontation, which, if necessary, can be easily transferred to the military. The Camp David agreement provided the Israelis more than 30 years of respite, which seems to be ending. And this should be realized in Tel Aviv.

But in retreating from the principles of Camp David lurking danger for Egypt itself. The Camp David agreements not only after their conclusion made Egypt the dominant Arab state in the Middle East region. After signing them, Egypt became a strategic ally of the United States in the Middle East. And this the Egyptian military leadership should not neglect. After all, after the abandonment of the peaceful principles laid down at Camp David, the Egyptians may lose their position as a leader in the Arab world and the support of the States. Together with almost $ 2 billion to US aid, which has been regularly coming in since 1979.

It is worth recalling that after the founding of Islam, the Arabs conquered the Berbers, Copts, Kurds, Sudan, and now they are striving to put an end to the Israeli state. After all, the fact that the Jews managed to win back part of their territory from the Arabs is, from the point of view of Islamist Orthodox, a bad example for those African countries where Arabs planted Islam in the 20th century and in which they continue their Muslim colonization. 21 The state of the 22-s Arab countries for centuries of Arab colonization has lost its identity, culture and languages. And next, as conceived by the Muslim radicals, under Arab pressure, Israel should fall.

It seems that a rehearsal of this was held in Cairo, and under pressure from the crowd that went on the assault, the Israeli embassy fell. This actually violated not only the inviolability of diplomatic institutions, the territory of which, under international law, is the territory of the country that owns the embassy. In addition, the Egyptians violated the unwritten rules of respect for the guest in the Middle East, whose duty is to take care of his safety.

However, we can now talk about two options for the future of Egypt. Or he will follow the path of democracy and, after the new presidential elections, will develop good-neighborly relations and build mutual understanding with neighbors, raise the national economy and improve the welfare of the Egyptians. Or, if after the revolution in Egypt, reactionary political forces win, who distort the achievements of the Egyptian revolution and incite the people to assault embassies, we can talk about the creation of a new Gaza Strip in Egyptian territory where 80 million will live. And they will remember the times of dictator Hosni Mubarak’s rule, like a golden age.

What will be the relationship between Egypt and Israel in the future depends largely on how the internal situation in Egypt will develop. This especially concerns the acquisition of the legitimacy of the central government in the eyes of the Egyptian people and sufficient public awareness of the actions and intentions of those who have the last word in determining the strategy of Egypt’s international policy. Perhaps the 1979 peace treaty of the year requires some correction and additions that would meet current requirements. However, in any case, it should not be revised, since it can lead to disastrous consequences both for Israel and for Egypt.
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