Military Review

Dusty work of international rating agencies

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In the world there are many options for work, which is called dustless. Dusty work is not only in the sense that a person does not get his hands dirty at a factory, in a car repair shop or when harvesting, but also because the responsibility is close to zero. One of the types of work classified as “dust free” is the work of the so-called international rating agencies. People with a clever look and white-collar sitting in leather chairs and from time to time declare that the sovereign rating of a state must urgently either "drop" or raise. Moreover, such people are not particularly eager to explain whether the reasons for raising or lowering the rating of the economy are objective or not. Once said, it means objective - already “by definition”.


Dusty work of international rating agencies


The most successful in terms of such activities are Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's. These are very closed offices that are steamed in their own juice. Their functioning is in many ways reminiscent of the activities of a totalitarian sect, which has its own top, and adepts must believe in the infallibility of this top, sometimes under the influence of the cane system.

Recently, the cane system of "international" rating agencies has been directing its quasi-religious activities to convince Russia of the wrong choice of its political "faith." If you continue to use the language of religion, then rating agencies scare Russia by imposing an anathema for its intractability with the main "exclusive" civilization in the existing world.

Two agencies (S & P and Fitch), which are so independent that it is, well, simply impossible to doubt, decided to put the Russian economy at the level of a “pre-trash” (pre-speculative) rating. At the same time, the agencies themselves announced that soon they would be ready to lower the rating level of the Russian economy to the “junk” (speculative) mark, which will affect banks' loan portfolios, the debt securities market and lead to even greater capital outflows (in 2014, “Net” capital outflow from Russia at about 155 billion dollars). Only Moody's still associates the rating of the Russian economy with a mark that is two steps higher than speculative.

But lowering the sovereign rating of the economy of the whole of Russia to “independent” agencies seemed not enough. It turned out that the range of activities of “specialists” in these agencies is so wide that they are ready, as they say, to sort out the ratings of each subject of the Russian Federation separately, each bank and almost every municipality and rural settlement. So, last Friday, a countdown appeared in which the restless Fitch decided to try out the cane system of convincing Russia that it was “not right”. Representatives of the agency literally rushed to lower the ratings of Russian banks (they counted as many 30 banks, whose ratings were “too high). After the banks, enthusiasm manifested itself in relation to the Russian regions: they lowered the rating of Moscow, St. Petersburg, Tatarstan, the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District, and the Tyumen Region. Striking activity. They work, poor fellows, without weekends and holidays - is it a joke to say how much more there is ahead.

But such activity of rating sectarians was not left unattended in the camp of the Russian authorities. Deputies of the State Duma decided that rating organizations that call themselves independent, take a lot of themselves. In the coming days, the Committee of the State Duma on constitutional legislation and state-building intends to discuss the activities of “fitchey” and other “independent” international agencies in Russia. According to representatives of the Duma Committee, the activities of these organizations can be regarded as threatening the national interests of Russia and aimed at destabilizing the situation in the country.

The deputy chairman of the aforementioned committee, Alexander Ageev, is quoted by the newspaper "News":
Previously, the draft was reviewed by the committee’s staff, and a positive conclusion was prepared there. Probably, this issue will be considered at a committee in the coming days. I myself support this project.


The State Duma said it was proposed to create a three-step mechanism for evaluating the activities of foreign financial and analytical organizations. The first step is the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the second is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, the third is the General Prosecutor’s Office. According to the decision of the General Prosecutor’s Office, as the deputies report, this or that organization (speech and rating agencies) may be deprived of the opportunity to function in the territory of Russia.

It would seem that it is better not to talk about banning the activities of international rating agencies, but to attend to the problems of the Russian economy, and these agencies themselves will lose the desire to lower their economic ratings. This, of course, is correct. And arguing with such a thesis is hardly constructive. But the fact is that only complete, excuse me, idiot is not able to notice that the agencies involved in the compilation of economic ratings work in the format of an amazingly selective rating system. The states, which in their “assets” have debts exceeding 100% of GDP, and which are forced to recruit new and new loans to pay off old loans, are in the leading list of the same Fitch. Why on earth? According to this logic, it turns out that the more you have debts, and the more money you are, waving your fists (or your hand with a gun), you are ready to beat out from others, the more economically reliable you are. So what? ..

To assess the situation, you can look at the rating data provided by S & P. How the economy, for example, Japan, whose national debt has exceeded the bar in 210% of GDP, is defined by S & P as an economy “with high-quality commitments” (one of the leading positions in the rating). On the basis of the fact that the puppeteer of Japan is sitting in the state under whose auspices these rating offices operate. What grounds do international rating agencies take into account in order to declare the sovereign ratings of Greece, Latvia, Ireland, Spain, Portugal at once a few steps higher than the Russian? The agencies have one answer: because the oil price has dropped, the ruble exchange rate is low, sanctions and so on ... So what? Has Russia suddenly stopped servicing its loan obligations? Not ceased. Has Russia not been able to pay something for the debts? I could and can. If we express ourselves emotionally, then Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves alone will be enough to buy, for example, the whole of Latvia, whose economy S & P is estimated to be significantly stronger ... Stronger? Well, nonsense is ...

This is exactly what makes it possible to think about whether the objective work is carried out by rating agencies, or is it just another branch of the American administration that fulfills the order of the owner in his economic and political interests? ..
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  1. Dumb
    Dumb 19 January 2015 06: 36 New
    +11
    I looked at the KR table from the fitch for 2014. so there
    all EU countries, including Bulgaria and the entire Baltic States
    rated stable ... Ukraine too. What can I talk about here? :)
    1. Kyrgyz
      Kyrgyz 19 January 2015 09: 28 New
      +3
      Quote: Dumb
      I looked at the KR table from the fitch for 2014. so there
      all EU countries, including Bulgaria and the entire Baltic States
      rated stable ... Ukraine too. What can I talk about here? :)

      We can say here that the investments of a Western investor in these countries are safe, because they are most likely to be saved from default and private sector debt is refinanced, these countries are understandable and controlled, they will not be delayed by help from Western financial institutions.
      Many people think that the rating reflects the absolute truth, but this is not so, the truth is there but it is very relative. If Russia no longer has access to obtaining foreign currency on acceptable terms and it is necessary to pay the debts to enterprises in the currency, then this is a dangerous situation, it is dangerous for a Western investor from the currency zone to whom easy access is blocked (refinancing), therefore the agency recommends not investing to the state with which the trade war began, so there is no mistake here. It’s just that for most investors from Russia and non-dollar and euro zones, these agencies are like a weather forecast in the state of Illinois, and if someone continued to wait for investments from the EU or the USA in 2014, well, it can be in the same house as those who took a mortgage in dollars.
    2. The point
      The point 19 January 2015 12: 46 New
      +1
      Quote: Dumb
      I looked at the KR table from the fitch for 2014. , so there are all EU countries, including Bulgaria and the entire Baltic States with a rating of - stable ... Ukraine, too

      Stable- stable, or what? wassat Then they are right. laughing
      1. Talgat
        Talgat 19 January 2015 18: 41 New
        +1
        and more about the pun - Mudis clearly sounds obscene

        Rating agencies an instrument of state and dollar dominance - to give a loan to Kum to whom not to give - when to arrange a crisis - a complete lie - no one already believes

        It’s not for nothing that China and the BRICS, creating a bank and a monetary fund, said that they would have their own rating agency free of political conditions, which would not “automatically” put minuses to Russia or Iran, for example
        1. Akuzenka
          Akuzenka 19 January 2015 18: 46 New
          +1
          Until their economy collapses, the song that "everything is fine, a beautiful marquise" will flow continuously, no matter what. "It's not you, it's a crooked mirror, baby."
        2. Hitmaster
          Hitmaster 20 January 2015 01: 48 New
          +1
          totally agree! must have its own rating agency. moreover, an identical security service in the bank, evaluating a potential lender not for political reasons, but for real solvency, and its "credit history". only mattresses can give, or not give their candy wrappers, for children's reasons - like you didn’t let me play on your globe ... well, lollipop in their mouth with their "ratings" ...
  2. GRF
    GRF 19 January 2015 06: 38 New
    +1
    And who forces our investors to obey them?
    And if they obey and sell the good at cheap prices, are they ours? Or with brains?

    A chic moment for our state to buy assets from such investors ...
    1. dirty trick
      dirty trick 19 January 2015 07: 32 New
      +7
      Quote: GRF
      A chic moment for our state to buy assets from such investors ...

      so it seems to be buying up ...

      in general, these ratings are important for Western countries whose debts are already close, or go beyond 100% of GDP, Russia's debt is small and decreasing, there are no talks about new loans, so that’s all these ratings can be safely ignored!
      1. Kyrgyz
        Kyrgyz 19 January 2015 09: 42 New
        0
        Quote: dirty trick
        in general, these ratings are important for Western countries whose debts are already close, or go beyond 100% of GDP, Russia's debt is small and decreasing, there are no talks about new loans, so all these ratings can be safely ignored!

        In this case, their debts are not important, because they, being part of their world, will not be able to repay these debts, and Russia can go into autocracy, abandon their currencies, get out of their financial field, these are all risks they say they don’t understand what will happen next and therefore they offer to stay from Russia in side. They can’t ignore ratings in the EU and the USA. There is a prerequisite for investing THEM money according to the rating, otherwise you can stick to the waste article.
      2. X Y Z
        X Y Z 19 January 2015 11: 13 New
        +2
        Of course, they can and should be ignored, but in addition to the economic, they also cause political and reputation damage! And this is not a joke. And bringing them to fresh water, proof of their political commitment and bias is an important and necessary task today. I understand that expelling them from Russian territory scares someone, especially since carrots (you can still handle it) are always at your mouth. But the war has already been declared and nowhere to retreat - garbage ratings on the nose.
    2. Kyrgyz
      Kyrgyz 19 January 2015 09: 35 New
      +1
      Quote: GRF
      And who forces our investors to obey them?
      And if they obey and sell the good at cheap prices, are they ours? Or with brains?

      A chic moment for our state to buy assets from such investors ...

      The fact of the matter is that the investor should be mainly national, but the state does not work well in this regard, you can always agree with the official (it doesn’t matter in Russia or not), the best investor is a private trader, but the private trader in Russia is not raised, he was given 90s and they dumped everything over a hill from there pretending to be foreigners working since they’re afraid that they’ll take it away, and for good reason, in general. It is necessary to deal with the upbringing and cultivation of the national business, of course now it is more difficult than it was possible in the 90s, but certain steps are being taken, one must have an understanding of what kind of business is needed and accept the rules of the game so that the business becomes what it is needed, and the state should change to get closer to business.
  3. Rurikovich
    Rurikovich 19 January 2015 07: 13 New
    +2
    In general, I propose publicly at the state level to recognize the rating agencies of America as biased and their conclusions as untrue. I think the lion's part of the world community in the person of China, India, and Latinos will support us. soldier
    1. Kyrgyz
      Kyrgyz 19 January 2015 09: 44 New
      +1
      Quote: Rurikovich
      In general, I propose publicly at the state level to recognize the rating agencies of America as biased and their conclusions as untrue. I think the lion's part of the world community in the person of China, India, and Latinos will support us. soldier

      Agencies write ratings not for governments but for investment funds in the US and the EU, they deeply share the views of governments, they count numbers and assess risks, and they don’t need competitors.
  4. valentina-makanalina
    valentina-makanalina 19 January 2015 07: 16 New
    +2
    I’ll pay what amount I will be at such a place.
    The agency also wants to eat.
    1. Akuzenka
      Akuzenka 19 January 2015 18: 47 New
      0
      Absolutely accurate definition, colleague.
  5. Lelek
    Lelek 19 January 2015 08: 05 New
    +1
    This is exactly what makes it possible to think about whether the objective work is carried out by rating agencies, or is it just another branch of the American administration that fulfills the order of the owner in his economic and political interests? ..

    What is there to think about? And the hedgehog understands everything - who pays the young lady, that .... bully
  6. sergbasic
    sergbasic 19 January 2015 08: 31 New
    +1
    The credit rating tables clearly show the owner and his satellites.
    Quote: Dumb
    I looked at the KR table from the fitch for 2014. so there
    all EU countries, including Bulgaria and the entire Baltic States
    rated stable ... Ukraine too. What can I talk about here? :)

    Absolutely agree!
    1. Kyrgyz
      Kyrgyz 19 January 2015 10: 00 New
      0
      Quote: sergbasic
      The credit rating tables clearly show the owner and his satellites.

      They evaluate risks in dollars and euros, what risks can be faced by issuers of dollar and euro or their affiliates? Everything is correctly indicated in the ratings, but it is not indicated what many want to see there, the rating indicates return on investment risk for the investor of the western circle, and not the stability or reliability of the state.
      Roughly exaggerating if "for example, Albania says that it will introduce a moratorium on its obligations, then it will be divided and joined up by people in the" debt development zone ", if Russia does so, it will be seized on what is in the US and the EU, loudly wiped out on all TV channels and in general, that’s all - as you can see, the possibility of returning investments is different, and with "for example Albania" it will turn out to return more quickly and more truly than with Russia or "China’s name" laughing
  7. blizart
    blizart 19 January 2015 08: 59 New
    0
    Do you remember 2008 year? This one like his “Someone and Sons” had a stable rating. And he fell so ... well, you all remember. Although I did not care about all this from my personal five hectares. In 2008, by the way, I bought
  8. Gardamir
    Gardamir 19 January 2015 09: 32 New
    0
    Is it time to revise the measurement of the lives of citizens with GDP, at some sort of "level of happiness"?
  9. nivander
    nivander 19 January 2015 10: 02 New
    +1
    in 2012, the mudies allowed themselves the audacity to lower the rating of the United States, they nearly killed them, the muds had to repent for a long time and snotty, After that, the mudies never bit the owner’s hand
  10. Serge Mikhas
    Serge Mikhas 19 January 2015 10: 29 New
    +1
    Yes, what are they generally allowed in our statistics ... The Chinese do not allow anyone to their numbers and they have excellent economic indicators. The growth of GDP is huge and, accordingly, investment. wink It’s time to stop looking at all kinds of wise men and calmly do our thing. Why should we report something to the adversary? To help them plan the tricks?
  11. vovan089
    vovan089 19 January 2015 10: 36 New
    +1
    Russia needs to put big with the device on the "conclusions" of the mentioned and other "rating offices".
  12. Almatinets
    Almatinets 19 January 2015 11: 44 New
    0
    the ambush is that if the rating is “junk”, then lenders may demand early repayment of current debts, that is, an additional burden on the country's reserves - this is what
  13. kind
    kind 19 January 2015 12: 09 New
    +1
    Quote: Dumb
    I looked at the KR table from the fitch for 2014. so there
    all EU countries, including Bulgaria and the entire Baltic States
    rated stable ... Ukraine too. What can I talk about here? :)

    From the fact that the donkey will be called a horse, the essence will not change. So it is with a stable rating for the EU, whose debt is higher than the roof.
  14. fevg
    fevg 19 January 2015 13: 15 New
    0
    Well, just now, Mudis "puzzled" down and with a further review "down."
  15. nthvbyfnjh2015
    nthvbyfnjh2015 19 January 2015 15: 03 New
    0
    And who is stopping the creation of a rating agency in Russia and slapping the "junk" rating on mattresses and its henchmen.
  16. Azaat
    Azaat 19 January 2015 16: 19 New
    0
    We need to develop our banking and financial sectors. And then you can spit even from where on other banks, and put something on agencies.
  17. valeriy7
    valeriy7 19 January 2015 16: 36 New
    0
    negative Any nonsense will be borne, because in the states now you can’t even get a sweeping street.
  18. Irkutian
    Irkutian 19 January 2015 16: 44 New
    0
    Plusonul. The truth is written by the author.
  19. sharp-lad
    sharp-lad 20 January 2015 00: 05 New
    0
    These ratings are not for Russia, China, India, Iran, Turkey, the BRICS countries and other non-Western countries, but for the West itself, which would “democratically” prohibit financial and economic cooperation with entities unfavorable to their business!