Military Review

On the losses of banks in case of continuation of the economic war of the West against Russia

20
On the losses of banks in case of continuation of the economic war of the West against RussiaAt the end of 2014, the latest Basel Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data was published, which characterize the positions of foreign banks in Russia and Russian banks abroad, and also give an idea of ​​the possible losses of the parties (banking systems) in case of further involvement of banks in the economic war of the West against Russia.


Positions of foreign banks in Russia

As for the positions of foreign banks in Russia and their probable risks, the BIS gives this assessment. The obvious part of the risks is the obligations of Russian banks and companies from all sectors of the economy to foreign banks on loans received. This is the main risk, which is measured as total (100-percentage) non-payment of debts by Russian recipients of loans and borrowings. This major risk for banks of all countries was estimated at 207,6 billion. There are other risks (potential risks). All types of risks of foreign banks in Russia in the middle of 2014 have amounted to 363,3 billion dollars (tab. 1). At the same time, as of December 31 2013, the BIS estimated the main risk of foreign banks in Russia at 225 billion, i.e. in half a year it was reduced by 7,7%. This dynamic arose as a result of the fact that in March economic sanctions were imposed on Russia. Old loans and loans were paid off, and the provision of new loans and loans to Russian banks and companies began to decline. It almost completely stopped after the introduction of the third package of sanctions, according to which Russian organizations were cut off from the "long" and "medium" credits and loans.

Table. 1.

Cost indicators of risks of foreign banks in Russia (as of 1 July 2014, billion dollars)


Country

Volume of all risks

Major risks (on loans and borrowings)

Other risks

USA

109,6

26,1

85,3

France

59,1

47,8

11,3

United Kingdom

45,2

14,3

30,9

Italy

34,0

18,4

6,3

Germany

20,8

17,7

3,1

Japan

20,3

18,4

1,9

Netherlands

15,7

15,7

-

Sweden

9,1

9,1

-

Spain

1,4

1,2

0,2

Other countries

48,0

31,4

16,6

Total

363,2

207,6

155,6

The main part of all the risks of foreign banks in Russia falls on US banks - 30,0%. The shares of banks of other major countries are as follows (%): France - 16,2; Great Britain - 12,4; Italy - 9,4; Germany - 5,7. A total of nine countries indicated in the table account for 86,8% of all risks.

At the same time, the overwhelming part of all the risks of foreign banks in Russia falls on the risks of losses associated with non-repayment of loans provided to Russian banks. The share of these risks as a whole is 57,2%.

The remaining 42,8% falls into the category of “potential risks” (“contingent liabilities”). They include the potential losses of foreign banks arising from their liabilities for bank guarantees and derivative financial instruments. Experts believe that in relation to Russian risks, we are talking mainly about such tools as credit default swaps (CDS). Those foreign banks that provided loans and loans to Russia bought these swaps from other foreign banks in order to insure themselves against Russian defaults. It is noteworthy that the bulk of the potential risks are accounted for by US banks - 85,3 of 155,6 billion dollars, i.e. 55%. The potential risks of US banks are 3,3 times the risk of credit. In second place in terms of potential risks are UK banks. At British banks, the potential risks exceed the credit risks in 2,2 times. In general, US and UK banks account for of all potential risks of foreign banks in Russia. It was American and British banks that in the past decade actively sold such new financial instrument to banks (and not just banks) such as defaults insurance (CDS). Including from defaults in Russia. It can be assumed that those banks that are actively engaged in sales of Russian CDS are not interested in the occurrence of an “insured event” (in other words, the default of Russia). But for those banks that today are holders of Russian CDS, the occurrence of such an "insured event" would be very useful.

The risks of foreign banks and the stability of banking systems

Despite the rather impressive risk figures of foreign banks in Russia, their impact on the stability of the banking systems of other countries should not be overestimated. If we compare the value of these risks with the total assets of foreign banking systems, nowhere does this proportion go beyond 1% (Table 2).

Table. 2.

Ratio of risks of foreign banks in the Russian Federation and total assets of foreign banking systems (as of 1 July 2014)


Country

The value of the risks in Russia, billion.

The total assets of the country's banking system, trillion. Doll.

Ratio of risks to assets,%

USA

109,6

15,6

0,7

France

59,1

9,7

0,6

United Kingdom

45,2

11,0

0,4

Italy

34,0

5,0

0,7

Germany

20,8

9,3

0,5

Japan

20,3

7,7

0,4

Netherlands

15,7

2,8

0,6

Sweden

9,1

1,5

0,6

Spain

1,4

3,9

0,4

Table 2 presents data on all assets of the banking systems of foreign countries, both domestic and foreign. For the US banking system, foreign assets in the middle of 2014, by the Bank for International Settlements, were estimated at 6,22 trillion. dollars For the banks of the main European countries, they were equal (trillion dollars): Great Britain - 3,35; Germany - 1,85; France - 1,81; Italy - 1,02. Thus, if we correlate the risks of foreign banks in Russia with their foreign assets, we will get the following values ​​(%): USA - 1,8; Great Britain - 1,3; Germany - 1,1; France - 3,3; Italy - 3,3. As you can see, the highest relative risks associated with Russia are fixed for the banking systems of France and Italy.

The deterioration of the economic situation in Russia can affect individual European banks, which are closely tied to the Russian banking sector and Russian companies in the non-financial sector. In particular, these are banks such as Italian UniCredit and French Societe Generale. Mention and banks of Austria. In particular, Raiffeisen Bank International, whose Russian loan portfolio is 10,8 billion euros. Unfortunately, since 2013, the Bank for International Settlements has stopped publishing data on the operations of Austrian banks in Russia.

Foreign assets of Russian banks: scope and geography

The BIS also provides information on the geographical distribution of foreign assets of Russian banks. The latest data is in the middle of the year 2014 (see table 3). The total value of foreign assets of Russian banks was estimated by the Bank for International Settlements at 235,5 billion dollars. These are foreign assets in a broad definition (total foreign claims). This is a very modest amount against the background of the giant foreign assets of US banks and leading countries in Western Europe. In terms of foreign assets, the banking system of the Russian Federation is comparable to the banking systems of such relatively small European countries as Norway (299,7 billion dollars), Austria (292,0 billion dollars), Finland (274,6 billion dollars).

Table. 3.

Foreign assets of Russian banks in distribution by individual countries (as of 1 July 2014)


Countries

Billion Doll.

Share,%

Total*

235,50

100

USA

23,75

10,1

Canada

0,61

0,3

Japan

19,21

8,2

Taiwan

1,49

0,6

European countries, total

174,80

74,2

France

50,61

21,5

Italy

29,04

12,3

Germany

21,55

9,2

Holland

16,89

7,2

United Kingdom

14,72

6,3

Sweden

10,54

4,5

Switzerland

6,40

2,7

Spain

2,68

1,1

Belgium

0,75

0,3

* The calculation of the total value of 25 countries.

The sum of 235,5 billion dollars can be considered as a cost estimate of the risks of Russian banks in the event of an escalation of the banking war between Russia and the West. After all, most of all international assets are located in countries that are controlled by Washington. It is impossible to exclude the possibility of arrest of foreign assets. According to the Bank of Russia, in the middle of 2014, the share of foreign assets of the country's banking system in the total volume of all banking assets (without the Central Bank) was about 17%. And most of them are in the countries listed in Table. 3.

The BIS in the composition of the foreign assets of Russian banks includes not only loans and borrowings, but also investments, funds on correspondent accounts, deposits, foreign currency in cash, etc. Foreign loans and loans of the Russian banking sector amounted, according to the BIS, 140,5 billion dollars. The narrow definition of international assets means only those assets that are formed through cross-border operations. Such foreign assets (total international claims, external assets) were estimated at 166,8 billion dollars. The remaining 69 billion dollars are assets placed in foreign currency within the Russian Federation (loans, deposits). As well as the ruble claims of Russian banks to non-residents.

The foreign assets of Russian banks in the narrow sense (international claims) are noticeably less than the aggregate requirements of foreign banks for Russian banks and companies, but these assets are located almost exclusively in those countries that have imposed economic sanctions against Russia. To prevent Western adoption of sanctions against foreign assets of Russian banks painfully affected the banking system of the Russian Federation, can the withdrawal of Russian banking assets from Western countries and their transfer to other jurisdictions - to countries of the Eurasian Economic Union and to the BRICS countries.
Author:
Originator:
http://www.fondsk.ru/news/2015/01/13/o-poterjah-bankov-v-sluchae-prodolzhenija-ekonomicheskoj-vojny-zapada-protiv-rossii-31318.html
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  1. Vasily Ivashov
    Vasily Ivashov 15 January 2015 19: 06
    +8
    "The withdrawal of Russian banking assets from Western countries and their transfer to other jurisdictions - to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union and to the countries of the BRICS group, can prevent the adoption of sanctions on foreign assets of Russian banks from painfully affecting the banking system of the Russian Federation."
    As the saying goes, move the loafs faster and withdraw your loot or, as always, you hope that it will carry or the state will help the banks if that. Oh well.
    Or bankers hope instead of Putin Medvedev to plant, so the people will overthrow him with you, because people have no illusions about your account.
    1. Kostyar
      Kostyar 15 January 2015 19: 16
      +6
      Why is Russia forced to take its own money from selling oil at wild interest ???
      1. FACKtoREAL
        FACKtoREAL 15 January 2015 19: 23
        +8
        BECAUSE...
        WE DON'T BE AFRAID! laughing
        and further...
        current political system very similar to SLAVEN CAPITALISM, in which the ruling oligarchic elite from the people SEVEN SKIN fights:
        1.taxes - "very tangible"
        2. state orders "for their own"
        3.Nedra- "their"
        4. GSM-oligarchic monopoly.
        5. Bank loans - CRAZY ...
        6. Power-competently usurped by a handful of immigrants from special services and their sneaks.
        7.All that they can’t competently distribute themselves can’t be distributed by the people themselves, therefore they invest in the US economy ..
        1. Sid.74
          Sid.74 15 January 2015 19: 33
          +2
          The Swiss National Bank today unexpectedly canceled the 2011 franc-euro ceiling introduced in 1,2. With this decision, the value of the franc against the euro soared to a record level of 85,17 centimes per euro. Experts interviewed by RT note that this is due to the general financial crisis in Europe and that further currency interventions are possible in Switzerland.
          http://russian.rt.com/article/69220


          What the hell is going on in the markets? If Switzerland is interfering, then things are really taking a not-so-funny turn.

          In just 13 minutes, the Swiss franc soared 30% and local stocks plummeted 12% - the biggest crash since 1987. But throughout Europe as a whole, shares are being drained and "reliable assets" such as German GKO and red (gold) are being bought.


          Hungarian Stock Market -276 points
          Warsaw Stock Market -912 points

          Swiss Credit Suisse -11.42%
          Russian VTB Bank + 7.86%


          The zloty is falling, the euro is falling, the dollar is falling against the Swiss franc.
          Gold goes to 1'244 - and only the Ukrainian hryvnia remains stable.
          laughing
      2. WKS
        WKS 16 January 2015 00: 41
        +1
        Quote: Bone
        Why is Russia forced to take its own money from selling oil at wild interest ???

        It takes not Russia as a state, but private companies. And not at crazy interest, but at 1-2,5%, from the strength of 3% and for three five years. And here they resell this money really at crazy interest. And by all means they keep this margin, and not without the help of the Central Bank and the government. Such is our native capitalism.
    2. Denis fj
      Denis fj 15 January 2015 19: 44
      +3
      Here in Russian:
      - if you simplify it to a minimum - in the event of a complete gap in financial obligations, foreign banks will leave their 363 billion dollars with us, and ours with them 235 billion .. That is, our banks will be in positive territory (+128 billion dollars)
    3. Denis fj
      Denis fj 15 January 2015 19: 45
      0
      There is no war without loss. Tighten the belt, business something! We are not used to it)) wink
    4. Denis fj
      Denis fj 15 January 2015 19: 47
      +8
      The biggest loss for banks will be when they are nationalized and bankers are shot.
      1. Alekseev
        Alekseev 15 January 2015 20: 54
        +3
        Quote: denis fj
        The biggest loss for banks will be when they are nationalized and bankers are shot.

        Partially necessary!
        In general, Russia needs to leave 15-20 large banks engaged in lending to the real sector.
        The remaining hundreds of speculation and laundry shops in FIG. And things will get better! yes
        It seems that they are doing it now, but it is necessary faster.
  2. jktu66
    jktu66 15 January 2015 19: 13
    +3
    to prevent Western imposition of sanctions on foreign assets of Russian banks in a painful way on the banking system of the Russian Federation, the withdrawal of Russian banking assets from Western countries and their transfer to other jurisdictions — to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union and to the countries of the BRICS group — can.
    Soon a year of sanctions will be added, new ones will be added, transactions will be banned for enterprises, this is specifically a war of destruction. Interestingly, we have provided something for the year as a protection against switching off a swift, for example?
  3. Observer
    Observer 15 January 2015 19: 13
    +7
    To take a loan from a foreign bank operating in Russia and not to repay. This is war baby!
    1. LvKiller
      LvKiller 15 January 2015 21: 39
      0
      Nuuuuu, I don't even know. Our "honest entrepreneurs", like "Dom-RU", shove penny debts on all sorts of Finnish "collection agencies". DEATH TO R-TELECOM! ... Well, to "raffaisen" at the same time, because he is not.
  4. Zaus
    Zaus 15 January 2015 19: 14
    +3
    An article is a set of numbers and terms. Well, not all the same with an economic education. It's hard for me to read such articles ...
  5. poultopwar
    poultopwar 15 January 2015 19: 16
    +3
    And where did the "honestly" working banks have losses ??? Whoever stole may have lost something. Banks on sanctions should only be cleansed of thieves and speculators !!! Sanctions against banks and traders are a great blessing !!!
    1. rozowik
      rozowik 15 January 2015 21: 57
      0
      You forget whose money in banks. Losing your bank, you may lose too
  6. svp67
    svp67 15 January 2015 19: 17
    +1
    In all this, one more aspect is not taken into account, now "independent rating" agencies are beginning to "bring down" our country, and this can lead to the fact that, upon reaching a certain level, the debt obligations of our firms and concerns may be presented for payment EARLY. That you yourself understand the stability of our banking system will not add ...
    1. LvKiller
      LvKiller 15 January 2015 21: 37
      0
      Yes, all their "falsifications" and, especially, "praises" are not worth a shisha. But at least ask "Lemon Brothers" how their ratings were extolled two months before their death ...
  7. Tribuns
    Tribuns 15 January 2015 19: 17
    +4
    Useful article with clear economic calculations ... But the message does not answer the question "What prevents" the withdrawal of Russian banking assets from Western countries and their transfer to other jurisdictions - to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union and the countries of the BRICS group "?
    Moreover, this answer is very relevant after Medvedev, at the VI Gaidar Forum, reaffirming his commitment to the liberal economy and maintaining the current market in Russia, rejected the possibility of a transition to a mobilization economy, an active supporter of which is the author of the message, Professor MGIMO Valentin Kasatonov ...
    1. andrey_lev
      andrey_lev 15 January 2015 19: 39
      0
      It is necessary to withdraw for real programs and investments. What is it easy to deduce?
  8. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 15 January 2015 19: 17
    0
    Bankers should not rule the economy ... Usually it ends in a lot of blood!
    1. LvKiller
      LvKiller 15 January 2015 21: 41
      +1
      Alas, the hucksters and banksters have seized power on the planet for quite some time. Have you not noticed that all current "values" and "civilization" itself are built on lies, greed and violence?
  9. Dudu
    Dudu 15 January 2015 19: 20
    +7
    There is a method of direct demarches, but there is a method of well-considered actions. Putin chose the second. The blocking of many Western trade and financial positions occurred after the forced fall of the ruble - supposedly the enemies failed, bastard ... chi!
    As a result, deliveries of luxury goods, a variety of imported products, clothing, stationery, furniture, perfumes, tools, machines, various equipment and other rubbish were blocked. Of course, it can be purchased, but it will be sold at times more expensive if someone wishes.
    So it turned out that all buy-sell oriented to the West were bankrupt and ruined. Those. the bulk of the pro-Western Raguli was deprived of its material base and now it has no time to protest - it is necessary to get some food.
    So, there were no sanctions, and the result is even more significant and lasting. No laws, no coercion and cost - but everyone moved in the right direction !!! In the West, everyone realized late - before that they shouted cheers.
    Fantastic things were happening in the Big Financial Sector - the results are partially reflected in this article.
    Of course, all this was reflected in the people and still will be - the cost of labor was lowered, and prices rose. But it could be worse.



    Battles win on the battlefield, and lose in diplomatic cabinets.
  10. andrey_lev
    andrey_lev 15 January 2015 19: 34
    +1
    It is too fraught for Western economies to start freezing or arresting something. They have a debt on debt, let creditors a little doubt that the obligations will be fulfilled, and their entire financial system will roll like a snowball.
    Although if they believe that a com will break loose so soon, they can take a chance. In this case, everything will simply be reset to zero, everyone will decide for himself whether he should someone something or not. And the results of the new fiscal year will show a completely different balance of power in the global economy.
  11. 31rus
    31rus 15 January 2015 19: 38
    +1
    Dear I considered and still consider all troubles and peace from banks, the created banking system and the World and Russian ones lead to crises and wars, therefore all the confrontation lies precisely in this
    1. andrey_lev
      andrey_lev 15 January 2015 19: 47
      +1
      The team redistribution of funds, of course, narrows the circle of persons with excess profit, but the effectiveness of such a redistribution is very low.
      In addition, a narrow circle of people is ultimately fraught with the advent of a dictatorial regime.
      We need to look for new solutions, forever discarding the old ones that have discredited themselves.
  12. TECHNOLOGY
    TECHNOLOGY 15 January 2015 19: 50
    +2
    The world has forgotten who helped it live. The United States wouldn’t be Russian, it wouldn’t be you. Germany, do you still have any doubts? Australia, maybe you don’t have to make yourself out? Russians were everywhere. We get up. You’ll all run soon to us. Well, only we will not accept all of you. We are kind. But there is a limit and kindness. Hallelujah!
  13. Vityok
    Vityok 15 January 2015 19: 59
    +4
    the withdrawal of Russian banking assets from Western countries and their transfer to other jurisdictions - to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union and to the countries of the BRICS group. I fully support the withdrawal of Russian banking assets from Western countries,
  14. Monastic
    Monastic 15 January 2015 21: 36
    0
    If you have something to display, except for "numbers" on the screens of monitors - on the servers.
  15. flSergius
    flSergius 15 January 2015 23: 23
    0
    I apologize for offtopic, but I can not wait for the morning and the corresponding article. So, Merkel froze enchanting nonsense
    anti-semitism is our state and civil duty, this also applies to attacks on mosques

    Did they argue with Klitschko and Psaka for money, or is it contagious and transmitted from individual to individual?
  16. karachun
    karachun 15 January 2015 23: 29
    0
    where are the chinese banks? atoms alone are geyropeyskie and ovskie ((