Russian experts, correcting the official strategy of socio-economic development of the state before 2020, beat the alarm: the Russian Federation is already on the verge of a catastrophe in the field of demography. The decrease in the birth rate, which has already begun to be fixed, will directly affect the future state of the Russian labor market and, consequently, the state’s economic growth rates.
The fall in the birth rate is currently directly related to the consequences of the catastrophic decline in the birth rate that occurred after the collapse of the USSR. The demographic hole of 1990's is much larger than the even demographic decline caused by the consequences of the Great Patriotic War. Thus, the number of Russian citizens who were not born as a result of the decline in the birth rate in “dashing 90” is several times higher than the number of our compatriots who were not born as a result of that terrible war. This is another proof of the fact that the consequences of “perestroika” and “reforms” have become worse for Russia in their consequences than the war with Hitler's hordes. According to demographic experts, if a system of measures aimed at boosting the birth rate of indigenous peoples is not urgently introduced in the Russian Federation (a particularly negative situation is noted in the demography of the Russian people), the Russian state may cease to exist already in the 21 century!
The main causes of declining fertility
At the round table “Why are Russians getting smaller?” (Held in RIA News), the head of the commission of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation on social issues and demographic policy, Elena Nikolaeva, reported that one of the main reasons that hinder the increase in the birth rate is “total poverty”. But according to other experts, this is not the main reason. Thus, in many societies in Asia and Africa, poverty is commonplace over many generations, but the birth rate is very high.
According to the director of the Institute for Demographic Studies, Igor Beloborodov, one of the main reasons for the decline in the birth rate is secularization, a departure from moral and spiritual values. From the point of view of materialistic rationalism, the child is not profitable. It interferes with a career, lowers the level of expenses aimed at an adult - you have to spend less on clothes, food, give up entertainment, tours, etc. In societies focused on spiritual values, the birth rate is higher - these are Islamic traditions, traditions of Indian civilization, etc. Russia, in this respect, has largely adopted the Western path - of inanimate individualism, egocentrism, hedonism.
One of the most important reasons for reducing fertility is urbanization. This process began back in the USSR, i.e. it cannot be assumed that only the authorities of the Russian Federation are guilty of it. The traditional family way (mainly peasant), economic relations broke down, the spiritual and material culture changed. Women began to “make” a career that also hit the family. Big cities are just real “killer families”, a traditional family with several children. It is more profitable to create a “family” in them consisting of a man and a woman without children, or with one child. The collapse of the USSR only worsened the situation in this area - thousands of villages, villages, small settlements, were killed by the “mono-town” blow. People began to move to cities and large cities, vast rural areas became deserted.
Another huge problem is the alcoholization of the population. According to Vladimir Zhdanov, chairman of the Union of Struggle for National Sobriety (SBT), the dependence of the level of alcohol consumption on the birth rate can be noted; the more alcohol is consumed per capita, the higher the mortality rate and the lower the birth rate. Thus, the mass alcoholization of the population, begun back in the USSR, acquired the character of a catastrophe in the Russian Federation. Not only adults, but also schoolchildren are drinking, women’s drunkenness has become terrible forms. And women are mothers, or future mothers, the overall increase in women’s consumption of alcohol (and even tobacco smoking) leads to a decrease in the birth rate, an increase in the number of miscarriages, abortions, and patients born from children. The nation is degrading, losing vitality.
Another reason for the decline in the number of the indigenous population of Russia is overmortality. With the potential in the Russian Federation, population growth should be annually 400 thousand people, - said Oleg Kulikov, a member of the State Duma Committee on Health Protection. From 1992 to 2011 years, almost the entire social sphere was “derailed” in Russia. A huge number of Russian citizens are dying of cardiovascular disorders, food, alcohol, drug poisoning. Significantly increased the number of cases of various kinds of infectious diseases. Due to the decline in the birth rate in 1990, the number of women of childbearing age has sharply decreased. In the same group of problems - the supermortality of men.
The population of Russia, despite the mistakes in the field of demography that they made in the USSR, grew to 1992, then it reached its historical maximum - 148,6 million people. Since then, the Russian population continued to decline, it did not decrease only in 1994 and 2009, but only because its decline was blocked by the arrival of migrants. Since 1992, Russia has 12,9 million people, although a number of experts cite other figures, higher (to 15 million people). All these reasons affect, and will continue to affect the population of Russia. Such a rate of decline in population, in such a short time did not know any country, except that except Ukraine. There, the situation is about the same.
The negative demographic processes in the republics of the North Caucasus and in the regions densely populated by Muslims are least noticeable. The Russian people and the small indigenous peoples of Russia continue to die out. Given the fact that the Russian people are the core, the foundation of our entire civilization, the population growth in the North Caucasus, the preservation of the number of Muslims in Russia and the massive importation of migrants from Central Asia will not solve the problem. And even on the contrary, it can lead to the fact that the decline of the Russian people will be marked by bloody interethnic and interethnic battles (the “Kosovo scenario”).
The collapse of the USSR struck citizens with a terrible psychological blow; people stopped believing in the future. Why give birth if the country has no future? As ordinary people say: “Why produce poverty?”. Only these factors put a big and fat question mark on the existence of the majority of the peoples of the Russian Federation as a national and cultural phenomenon. Under the threat of existence itself is a thousand-year Russian civilization. According to the United Nations, the population of the Russian Federation will be reduced from the current 2050 million to 142 million by the year 100, and by the year 2080 only 38 million people can remain in the state. It is clear that with such demographic indicators, one can forget about territorial integrity, sovereignty, in general about Russia and the Russian people. For example, by 2050, India’s population will grow from 1,1 billion to 1,6 billion, China from 1,3 billion to 1,4 billion, Islamic Republic of Pakistan from 158 million to 305 million, Saudi Arabia from 25 million to 50 million people.
Russia needs a program of "demographic revolution"
According to the chairman of the supervisory board of the Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development Yuri Krupnov, Russia needs a “demographic revolution.” The main points of the “demographic revolution, emerge from the suggestions of various experts, researchers of this problem.
- In such a catastrophic situation, it is not enough to restore the birth rate on the 2,5 - 2, 6 level of a child per family, which allows you to save the population and even slightly increase its number. To get out of the demographic pit, the coefficients must be different - at least 3 - 3,2 children per family, and better than 4 children. Fortunately, Russia has no problems with land, water resources, there are enormous opportunities for the development of agriculture and rural settlements.
- On TV, in all media moral, medical censorship is necessary. It is necessary to stop the wave of propaganda of violence, debauchery, hedonism, careerism, the introduction of irresponsible, infantile behavior into the psychology of boys. Introduce the state norm, which prohibits portraying the family in a negative context. Such images flooded TV, Russian show business. It is necessary to establish clear rules of the game: a normal family should be portrayed as two parents, of course, heterosexuals (prohibiting pederasty at the legislative level) with at least 2-3 children. Through TV programs, cartoons, the Internet and other means of communication, this kind of family should be introduced.
- It is necessary to create a program of material and moral encouragement of large families. Such families should be authoritative in society, supported by the state, the media, the entire morality of society. Childless, single-child families must pay tax to the state.
- A program is needed to support young healthy families (testing for drug addiction and alcoholism), an affordable housing program for them. Medvedev's proposal to provide the family, after the birth of the third child, the land for construction is ridiculous. It's just a mockery - give birth to three children, and then build the house itself. What percentage of families is capable of this, with “total poverty” and life on the verge of poverty ?!
In this regard, the Russian and other indigenous endangered peoples of the Russian Federation should offer a program that Khloponin voiced for the North Caucasus, that is, to make housing too cheap, or to introduce a preferential mortgage.
- The real program of sobering the nation, the elimination of the drug mafia, tobacco and alcoholic mafia.
- A holistic program for the restoration of spiritual and moral values of Russian culture.
- Restoration of education standards at the level of the USSR, a great deal of work must be done in the field of public health, physical culture of people - and the main priority is given to preventive work. That is, to introduce the standards of a healthy lifestyle (without alcohol, tobacco, nightclubs and discos), mass physical culture, hardening methods, Russian combat systems into people's minds.
In fact, we need a holistic resuscitation program for the whole of Russia; the problem cannot be solved by individual measures.
What is already being done
In 2001, Vladimir Putin in his message to the Federal Assembly said very important words that we are experiencing a demographic crisis, the situation is critical and extraordinary measures are needed. By this, the authorities recognized the problem. The most important of the real cases was the so-called. "maternal capital".
Unfortunately, after this the problem was “bureaucratic”, buried in reports, paper victories. So, many officials gladly reported on the birth rate growth in the Russian Federation in previous 3 years, but for some reason they were silent about the fact that in these first half a year there was a recession again, that is, in the Russian state, less than 87 children were born. And the previous reports that our demographic situation began to improve in a good way were half-truths. It was a surge in fertility, the causes of which came from 1987-1989's, when the USSR had a high birth rate, caused by the situation of anti-alcohol reform (a drop in the overall level of alcohol consumption, automatically causes an increase in fertility) and expectations of adjustment. Then a significant part of the population rosyly believed that the restructuring of the Union would end not with a catastrophe with the collapse of the USSR, but with something good. And then the maternity hospitals in the Soviet Union were literally overflowing. And then the children who were born in large numbers (the last healthy generations of the USSR — not disfigured by “dashing 90-mi”) in the last 3 of the year gave the Russian Federation a correspondingly higher number of children being born, simply because they began to enter the child-bearing age. But this factor today has almost won back its positive role, and through 2-4, the year will end completely, as children born at the time of the break of the Soviet system, the children of 90’s, are now entering the childbearing age. Families, even those who have given birth to one, maximum two children, are no longer going to have children - they talk about material difficulties, poor housing conditions, domestic insecurity, insufficient support for families from the government, the problem with kindergartens, the desire to live for themselves, etc.
The desire of the authorities to solve this problem at the expense of migrants leads only to new problems. The number of interethnic clashes is growing, and the conflict does not occur between the peoples that have long inhabited the area, but between the "newcomers" and the indigenous population. The criminogenic background rises, part of the “newcomers” goes to niches where high profitability is drugs, unlicensed alcohol, tobacco, various speculative operations, etc. There is a further erosion of Russian culture that has already become Russian-speaking. What the result of such a policy can be seen in the examples of Kosovo, unrest in Paris and London. We get another split line of Russia: "aliens" and "indigenous".