Russia's image suffered in the wake of the “Arab Spring”
While the Gaddafi regime is writhing in death-cramps, the rebels, who have become the new owners of Tripoli, promise that the contracts signed under Gaddafi will not be revised, but Russia's reputation as a reliable partner has been dampened. The Kremlin’s forced consent to a NATO-organized regime change and the introduction of an arms embargo on Libya in the eyes of the Arab world discredited Russia as a reliable supplier. “This is irreversible ... You can forget about Russia's reputation as a reliable supplier of weapons. Its reputation has been damaged not only in the Middle East, but throughout the world, ”said the director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Ruslan Pukhov.
A permanent clientele of the Russian defense industry will now probably turn away from it and turn to China, which has evaded support for NATO actions, adds Pukhov.
In addition to Libya, Russia has serious business interests in other Arab countries, so the Kremlin’s reaction to the snowball events of the Arab Spring is being watched very carefully. This, in particular, is true of Syria, where President Bashar Assad brutally suppressed the protests, of which about two thousand people became victims.
The US has already imposed sanctions on Syria, and the European Union is likely to impose an embargo on the import of Syrian oil next week. Oil exports to Syria give about a third of Syrian revenues.
If Tunisia and Egypt - whose governments were the first to fall during the events of the “Arab Spring” - were economically of little interest to Russia, then Syria is very important.
According to the Moscow Defense Brief magazine, the total value of existing contracts for the supply of Damascus weapons and military equipment significantly exceeds 4 billion dollars, while it is simply impossible to accurately estimate the volume of at least five main contracts.
In the Russian-Syrian business council, headed by Dmitry Pumpyansky, the head of the producer of steel pipes of the Pipe Metallurgical Company (TMK), refused to comment on The Moscow Times. Among other member companies of the Council with significant interests in Syria are oil-producing Tatneft, gas Itera and the national air carrier Aeroflot.
When asked about the possibility of imposing an international arms embargo on Syria, the head of Rosoboronexport last week declared that Russia was “obliged” to fulfill all agreements with this country. However, if the “Arab Spring” overwhelms Syria, all business agreements will lose force.
Libya’s western neighbor, Algeria, which had no significant popular unrest, along with Syria, is one of the five main importers of Russian military products and is also a vital customer for the MTC.
Under Gaddafi, Russian business interests were very significant and suffered as a result of the civil war.
Russia's participation in the arms embargo against Libya, introduced at the initial stage of events in this country, cost 4 billion dollars, the Rosoboronexport state intermediary for military-technical cooperation said at the time.
Railways built a railway branch in Libya under a contract worth 3,1 billion dollars, while oil and gas companies invested millions in exploration. Gazpromneft’s oil subsidiary, Gazpromneft, was going to acquire, along with Italian Eni, for 170 million dollars a stake in the Elephant oil field just before the massacre. The document was never signed.
Supporting the rebels, the Russian business could hope for more bright prospects in Libya. The Transitional National Council (PNS) insists that all contracts signed with Gaddafi will remain in force.
“Due respect will be shown to all legal contracts,” Ahmed Jehani, who is responsible for rebuilding the infrastructure, told Reuters on Tuesday. "The issue of contract revision is not worth it."
Russian companies even declared that they were ready to return to work in Libya after the end of the fighting.
Eurasia Drilling Company, one of the largest Russian drilling companies, said on Tuesday that it intends to return to the Libyan market with the onset of stability in the country, reported Bloomberg.
However, the support provided by the Kremlin to the rebels - hesitant, doubting, retarded - did not win much sympathy in the PNS. Many representatives of business and analysts believe that this kind of weak enthusiasm will lead to Russia's defeat in the competition with the West for business opportunities in Libya after Gaddafi.
Reuters quoted the words of the representative of the rebel oil company AGOCO Abdeldzhalil Mayuf, who said at the beginning of the week: “With the West - Italian, French and British companies - there is not the slightest problem. But political friction with Russia, China and Brazil is possible. ”
The Russian ambassador in Tripoli, who was dismissed in March, said at the time that Russian interests in Libya were "betrayed."
Considering the threats to the economic ties between Russia and the new Libya and the eroded confidence in Russia in bilateral relations with other Arab countries, some analysts speak of a general decline in Russia's prestige in the region.
“We are losing the Middle East,” said Viktor Mizin, deputy head of the Independent Institute for Strategic Assessments.
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