Re-export of media war between Russia and Belarus: economic aspect
Another trade conflict is unfolding between suppliers from the Republic of Belarus and the state authorities of Russia.
The bottom line is that this time the Rosselkhoznadzor made claims to a number of enterprises in the Republic of Belarus, mainly in the meat processing industry. After that, these enterprises were temporarily prohibited from importing products into Russia.
It would seem an ordinary conflict between the entrepreneur and the supervisory authority. But he went beyond reason. Included, including state, and opposition, and Euro-Atlantic media, he is from the ordinary stories The economic life of the Union State has become a political event. Moreover, it is of such a level that the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, is harshly commenting on him.
So, what is the socio-political result achieved:
-Belarusian society, which in its own way was presented with the conflict of the Belarusian business and the Russian state, is mobilized according to the principle of “ours are beating”
Russian society is convincing that "sly bulbashs are again cheating."
- Citizens of Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are very surprised by the level of scandal on an insignificant reason.
-The divided society of Ukraine receives its media emotions. "Vatniki", "Russian-Mirtsy", "separatists" and other "Colorado" grieve that among all the Eastern Slavs there is no agreement. "Euro-Ukrainians", "dill", "embroidery" and "ukropeytsy" rejoice that Russia has another problem.
-If we analyze media exhausts from the point of view of business reputation of the Russian Federation, the Republic of Belarus, the Union State, and the Eurasian Union, the damage caused by an ordinary trade conflict clearly exceeds the losses of Belarusian manufacturers and Russian retail chains.
As well as any unprofitable project, this case should be analyzed. Next time to prevent such errors.
Therefore, analyzing this conflict, it makes sense to set aside everything that the media and politicians have said. And leave only the economic and economic plot.
The plot
14 of August
The head of the Rosselkhoznadzor ensures that the Belarusian side can import prohibited goods to it, process it and then deliver it to the Russian market.
26 of August
Vladimir Putin, while in Minsk, said that, according to his data, prohibited goods in Russia are being shipped under the guise of Belarusian goods. In particular, Polish apples.
Culmination
24 November
Rosselkhoznadzor suspended deliveries of a number of Belarusian enterprises to the Russian market
28 November
Russian control authorities record the increasing import of goods prohibited from being imported into Russia into the Republic of Belarus.
It is also reported that there are suspicions that the scheme of bogus deliveries from Belarus to Kazakhstan is working.
28 November
Belarusian authorities report that they are blocking the importation of prohibited goods into Russia
http://news.tut.by/economics/425746.html
Decoupling
December 2 should be a meeting at which the expected settlement of the issue.
Minsk under state guarantees asked to restore shipments from December 1 http://news.tut.by/economics/425818.html
Here are the main events and facts that you should know when working on bugs. Everything else is either emotions or statements with domestic political goals.
Some errors
So, in the usual economic conflict between the entrepreneur and the state there is nothing worth a media scandal. However, the fact that the conflict is taking place against the backdrop of the economic war between Russia and the alliance of Euro-Atlantic countries, of course, aggravates the degree.
The market of the Republic of Belarus has not yet been drawn into a world economic war and, of course, will be used by financial capital as a transit market for penetration into Russia. Just as the transit markets of the Baltic republics were used for a long time to withdraw Russian capital to the EU.
Therefore, European manufacturers who have lost sales in Russia will naturally reach out to transit markets. Just as they were drawn to the Ukrainian market, while Kiev had special preferences in trade with Russia.
Of course, in the organization of transit schemes during the economic war, an important role is played by the motivation of Russia's trade networks and Belarusian intermediaries. Because it is easier for trade monopolists to build an illegal re-export scheme than to look for new suppliers. A Belarusian entrepreneur can earn on the net mediation without any investment.
Of course, the main mistake of Russia is that the government has not officially recognized the fact of economic war. Sanctions, counter sanctions are just new names for the good old trade war. It has not changed at all since when Rome was cut off from the wheat of Egypt, Napoleon organized the continental blockade of Britain, and Germany closed access to the coal of the Ruhr basin.
The world trade system is a network structure that is governed by network rules. Exchange traders bring down the price of oil, respectively, dropping the currency of the victim. If the victim country did not manage to close the domestic market, then when stock prices are at a minimum, external capital comes in and buys the assets lying at the bottom for a pittance.
If the country to which global capital has declared war has time to close the domestic market, then it can not only preserve assets, but also carry out industrialization and modernization. As it was, for example, Iran and Cuba were able to do in the second half, Soviet Russia at the beginning and the People’s Republic of China in the middle of the 20th century.
Now comes the first economic war of the XXI century. And on whether Russia will be able to create a world-economy around itself, its historical fate will depend. Because the economic war has just begun: far from access to all commodity groups is closed. There is still a cut off from civilian technologies: medical, engineering, informational.
However, nothing catastrophic happens, because everything that is missing can either be produced by oneself, or purchased, exchanged, borrowed in Southeast Asia.
Another question is whether the Russian leadership is ready for such a formulation of the question. Because if it is ready, it would not give the Belarusian side unrealistic promises that it will be possible to process prohibited goods. Then from Moscow they would say honestly: “You see, dear Syabry, we have started an economic war here. The real one is for survival. Therefore, we are starting to urgently develop our agricultural production and processing. Want to open production in Russia - welcome. Also give credit.
And it is better not to lend with money - but by taking into account interest on loans already taken, land, diesel fuel and fertilizers. And give Belarusian agricultural managers a couple of areas for the construction of agro-towns. Once in Russia themselves can not organize agribusiness.
You can offer to go to any form of economic cooperation. But to recycle the products of those who declared us an economic war - excuse me.
The second mistake in the dialogue between Moscow and Minsk lies in misunderstanding that, despite the fact that there are only one people, the societies in Russia and Belarus are different. And if the citizens of the Republic of Belarus still understand the society of the Russian Federation - because at least Russian TV channels watch and read Russian Internet sites, in the Russian Federation the Republic of Belarus understands very little. And they do not understand the motivation of the national elites and citizens.
Thus, one of the foundations of a consensus in the Belarusian society is economic pragmatism and economic benefit. The concentration of state capital in Belarus led to the consolidation of society on a self-supporting basis. Russia has practically forgotten these forms of self-organization of society, when a Soviet person was looking for an economic formula for the fair distribution of profits between the state, the enterprise and the collective. If anyone has forgotten, but wants to remember - I advise you to reconsider the film 1975 of the Year "Prize" http://www.kinopoisk.ru/film/43235/ - it is just about this kind of industrial and social relations.
In turn, in Minsk it is worth thinking about the fact that the scheme with re-export and processing of foreign raw materials can undermine the Belarusian economy, as it has already destroyed the Ukrainian one. In the second step, Belarusian goods from recycled materials purchased for currency will not be possible to sell in Russia also because the Russian ruble has fallen in price. Either it is necessary to raise prices for Belarusian goods, and they will move from the category of “public” to the category of “premium”. That, in turn, will destroy the marketing image of Belarusian products as high-quality and inexpensive.
If these trends become a trend, then a massive glut will happen. That, in turn, will lead to a lack of available funds - and foreign suppliers will have to pay in foreign currency. Therefore, it will be unprofitable to devalue the Belarusian ruble. That will hit the strategic industries - oil refining and potash production - because the prices on the world market will fall, and the expensive Belarusian ruble will not allow to conduct profitable foreign trade.
Minsk needs to understand that the opportunity to make money here and now on transit, re-export and processing in the third step will lead to a systemic collapse of the economy according to the Ukrainian scheme. And it will aggravate relations with Moscow, because the economic war, which Russia has already declared, threatens to become a real war at any moment. This means that either the actions of the Russian authorities will be tougher and more pragmatic, or the internal economic crisis in the Russian Federation will only increase. With the threat to develop into a social one.
The bottom line is that this time the Rosselkhoznadzor made claims to a number of enterprises in the Republic of Belarus, mainly in the meat processing industry. After that, these enterprises were temporarily prohibited from importing products into Russia.
It would seem an ordinary conflict between the entrepreneur and the supervisory authority. But he went beyond reason. Included, including state, and opposition, and Euro-Atlantic media, he is from the ordinary stories The economic life of the Union State has become a political event. Moreover, it is of such a level that the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, is harshly commenting on him.
So, what is the socio-political result achieved:
-Belarusian society, which in its own way was presented with the conflict of the Belarusian business and the Russian state, is mobilized according to the principle of “ours are beating”
Russian society is convincing that "sly bulbashs are again cheating."
- Citizens of Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are very surprised by the level of scandal on an insignificant reason.
-The divided society of Ukraine receives its media emotions. "Vatniki", "Russian-Mirtsy", "separatists" and other "Colorado" grieve that among all the Eastern Slavs there is no agreement. "Euro-Ukrainians", "dill", "embroidery" and "ukropeytsy" rejoice that Russia has another problem.
-If we analyze media exhausts from the point of view of business reputation of the Russian Federation, the Republic of Belarus, the Union State, and the Eurasian Union, the damage caused by an ordinary trade conflict clearly exceeds the losses of Belarusian manufacturers and Russian retail chains.
As well as any unprofitable project, this case should be analyzed. Next time to prevent such errors.
Therefore, analyzing this conflict, it makes sense to set aside everything that the media and politicians have said. And leave only the economic and economic plot.
The plot
14 of August
The head of the Rosselkhoznadzor ensures that the Belarusian side can import prohibited goods to it, process it and then deliver it to the Russian market.
26 of August
Vladimir Putin, while in Minsk, said that, according to his data, prohibited goods in Russia are being shipped under the guise of Belarusian goods. In particular, Polish apples.
Culmination
24 November
Rosselkhoznadzor suspended deliveries of a number of Belarusian enterprises to the Russian market
28 November
Russian control authorities record the increasing import of goods prohibited from being imported into Russia into the Republic of Belarus.
It is also reported that there are suspicions that the scheme of bogus deliveries from Belarus to Kazakhstan is working.
28 November
Belarusian authorities report that they are blocking the importation of prohibited goods into Russia
http://news.tut.by/economics/425746.html
Decoupling
December 2 should be a meeting at which the expected settlement of the issue.
Minsk under state guarantees asked to restore shipments from December 1 http://news.tut.by/economics/425818.html
Here are the main events and facts that you should know when working on bugs. Everything else is either emotions or statements with domestic political goals.
Some errors
So, in the usual economic conflict between the entrepreneur and the state there is nothing worth a media scandal. However, the fact that the conflict is taking place against the backdrop of the economic war between Russia and the alliance of Euro-Atlantic countries, of course, aggravates the degree.
The market of the Republic of Belarus has not yet been drawn into a world economic war and, of course, will be used by financial capital as a transit market for penetration into Russia. Just as the transit markets of the Baltic republics were used for a long time to withdraw Russian capital to the EU.
Therefore, European manufacturers who have lost sales in Russia will naturally reach out to transit markets. Just as they were drawn to the Ukrainian market, while Kiev had special preferences in trade with Russia.
Of course, in the organization of transit schemes during the economic war, an important role is played by the motivation of Russia's trade networks and Belarusian intermediaries. Because it is easier for trade monopolists to build an illegal re-export scheme than to look for new suppliers. A Belarusian entrepreneur can earn on the net mediation without any investment.
Of course, the main mistake of Russia is that the government has not officially recognized the fact of economic war. Sanctions, counter sanctions are just new names for the good old trade war. It has not changed at all since when Rome was cut off from the wheat of Egypt, Napoleon organized the continental blockade of Britain, and Germany closed access to the coal of the Ruhr basin.
The world trade system is a network structure that is governed by network rules. Exchange traders bring down the price of oil, respectively, dropping the currency of the victim. If the victim country did not manage to close the domestic market, then when stock prices are at a minimum, external capital comes in and buys the assets lying at the bottom for a pittance.
If the country to which global capital has declared war has time to close the domestic market, then it can not only preserve assets, but also carry out industrialization and modernization. As it was, for example, Iran and Cuba were able to do in the second half, Soviet Russia at the beginning and the People’s Republic of China in the middle of the 20th century.
Now comes the first economic war of the XXI century. And on whether Russia will be able to create a world-economy around itself, its historical fate will depend. Because the economic war has just begun: far from access to all commodity groups is closed. There is still a cut off from civilian technologies: medical, engineering, informational.
However, nothing catastrophic happens, because everything that is missing can either be produced by oneself, or purchased, exchanged, borrowed in Southeast Asia.
Another question is whether the Russian leadership is ready for such a formulation of the question. Because if it is ready, it would not give the Belarusian side unrealistic promises that it will be possible to process prohibited goods. Then from Moscow they would say honestly: “You see, dear Syabry, we have started an economic war here. The real one is for survival. Therefore, we are starting to urgently develop our agricultural production and processing. Want to open production in Russia - welcome. Also give credit.
And it is better not to lend with money - but by taking into account interest on loans already taken, land, diesel fuel and fertilizers. And give Belarusian agricultural managers a couple of areas for the construction of agro-towns. Once in Russia themselves can not organize agribusiness.
You can offer to go to any form of economic cooperation. But to recycle the products of those who declared us an economic war - excuse me.
The second mistake in the dialogue between Moscow and Minsk lies in misunderstanding that, despite the fact that there are only one people, the societies in Russia and Belarus are different. And if the citizens of the Republic of Belarus still understand the society of the Russian Federation - because at least Russian TV channels watch and read Russian Internet sites, in the Russian Federation the Republic of Belarus understands very little. And they do not understand the motivation of the national elites and citizens.
Thus, one of the foundations of a consensus in the Belarusian society is economic pragmatism and economic benefit. The concentration of state capital in Belarus led to the consolidation of society on a self-supporting basis. Russia has practically forgotten these forms of self-organization of society, when a Soviet person was looking for an economic formula for the fair distribution of profits between the state, the enterprise and the collective. If anyone has forgotten, but wants to remember - I advise you to reconsider the film 1975 of the Year "Prize" http://www.kinopoisk.ru/film/43235/ - it is just about this kind of industrial and social relations.
In turn, in Minsk it is worth thinking about the fact that the scheme with re-export and processing of foreign raw materials can undermine the Belarusian economy, as it has already destroyed the Ukrainian one. In the second step, Belarusian goods from recycled materials purchased for currency will not be possible to sell in Russia also because the Russian ruble has fallen in price. Either it is necessary to raise prices for Belarusian goods, and they will move from the category of “public” to the category of “premium”. That, in turn, will destroy the marketing image of Belarusian products as high-quality and inexpensive.
If these trends become a trend, then a massive glut will happen. That, in turn, will lead to a lack of available funds - and foreign suppliers will have to pay in foreign currency. Therefore, it will be unprofitable to devalue the Belarusian ruble. That will hit the strategic industries - oil refining and potash production - because the prices on the world market will fall, and the expensive Belarusian ruble will not allow to conduct profitable foreign trade.
Minsk needs to understand that the opportunity to make money here and now on transit, re-export and processing in the third step will lead to a systemic collapse of the economy according to the Ukrainian scheme. And it will aggravate relations with Moscow, because the economic war, which Russia has already declared, threatens to become a real war at any moment. This means that either the actions of the Russian authorities will be tougher and more pragmatic, or the internal economic crisis in the Russian Federation will only increase. With the threat to develop into a social one.
Information