Now Iraq is under attack, where there is already a de facto independent Kurdistan, with which Iran and Turkey are at war (“counterterrorism operations”). Turkey launched a military operation against Iraqi Kurds, as they blew up a car in the border area - 9 military died. In response, Ankara began to launch air strikes, while simultaneously conducting ground operations. 23 August reported that Turks killed 6 Kurdish militants in 100 days, dozens of rebels were injured. Turkish Minister of Defense Ismet Yilmaz collected what an explosion was organized by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). PKK representatives claimed responsibility for what had happened.
Also under attack Libya, Syria, Pakistan, the future of Afghanistan is unclear. American analysts are already “making” new maps of the Middle East, so at least three countries will be in one of them instead of Saudi Arabia.
One of the countries facing the threat of dismemberment is Syria, according to Western and some Russian media, “social protests” have been going on there for more than a month. Policemen are killed, a sniper is shot at the military, the army responds with “sweep” of cities, districts. The unity of Syria is possible only with a strong central authority, which is no doubt ready to apply violence to any radicals. The current situation leads to civil strife, the division of society into hostile groups and, as a result, the collapse of the country. Muslim radicals demand the death of Asad, the head of not only the country, but the representative of the Alawite community (approximately 10-11% of the population of Syria). The Alawites are a Muslim sect, an order where the principles of Islam are mixed with the ideas of Gnosticism and even early Christianity, therefore the Sunni majority of the country dislikes them. In addition, they constitute the economic and military elite of the country (up to 70% of officers are Alawites, they also make up the majority of 200 thousand contract servicemen, dominate in elite units). Thus, the Republican Guard consists entirely of Alawites. They also cause hatred of Saudi neighbors, so at the end of June 2011, the Syrian opposition was supported by a renowned Islamic theologian, a member of the supreme council of Islamic scholars of Saudi Arabia, Sheikh Saleh al-Luhaydan. In his video message, this theologian called on the Syrians to jihad against the “atheistic regime” of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Separately, Sheikh Saleh al-Lukhaydan mentioned the Alawite religious sect (they are also called nusayrites): “These Syrian nusayrites are those that the theologian Sheikh al-Islam ibn Taymiyya said that jihad should go against them in the first place ... they helped the Baath party to create a ruling regime in Syria and gave Hafiz Assad officers of his army "who are currently suppressing unrest in the country.
Under attack, and the Syrian Christians, their approximately 5% in the country. But they were also considered a rather privileged group, among local intelligentsia, doctors, teachers, there are up to 30% of them. Yes, and in business, they are represented well. The policy of the Syrian Baath party was not to oppose one religious group to another, but to attract the most promising and capable representatives of all communities to its ranks.
What will the victory of the opposition in Syria and the fall of the strong power of Assad, it is clear in neighboring Iraq. There, under Saddam Hussein, all the communities lived in relative peace. After the US occupation, the war between Sunnis and Shiites does not subside, plus Iraqi Kurdistan is de facto independent. The Christian community of Iraq, quite large, has already fled two-thirds of the country, the rest live on the “suitcases” in an atmosphere of constant terror. They run mainly to Syria, or Iraqi Kurdistan.
It is clear that such signs of religious, tribal or national hatred can be found in any Islamic country.
Map drawn by American Professor Michael Davy.
Many have heard about the Kurdish problem in Syria, Turkey, Iran and Iraq, but there are other conflict situations in the Islamic world. For example: people are less aware of the struggle of the Berber (Amazigh) tribes - this is the indigenous, non-Arab population of North Africa (in Morocco, Algeria, Libya) for their independence, which can also result in creating their own independent state. For example, in Libya, Gaddafi has established fairly good contacts with the leaders of the Berber tribes. But the current war has already led to a significant destabilization of the situation in the country.
In Egypt, there is a conflict between radical Islamists and Coptic Christians. The Muslim Brotherhood, after the overthrow of Mubarak, proclaimed a policy of creating a state based on Shari'ah, and hoping for the Copts, after the final fall of the military, to create a fully secular, democratic state. In Egypt, there is a tendency of permanent decline of the Christian population. In the event of further destabilization in the country, the ancient Christian community of Egypt, by virtue of the total numerical superiority of the Muslims, is doomed to extermination. Christians are already leaving Egypt - to the USA, EU countries, Australia. In Egypt, there is not only the conflict of Christians with Muslims, but also Muslims with each other, Sunnites of different trends. In March, 2011, the Salafis (as the Wahhabis call themselves there), engaged in pogroms and arsons not only of the Coptic churches, Christians, but also of Sufi mausoleums. The attacks of Salafi-Wahhabis on other Sunnis are noted in Jordan. They accuse them of "godlessness" and "unbelief." Salafis are the names of the environment from which the famous and mythical Al Qaeda is recruiting its fighters. These sectarians appeared in many countries, since they are generously sponsored by Saudi Arabia.
The situation in other Arab and Islamic states
The main factor of hostility is of course religious and economic associated with it, since the ruling group, a religious group subordinates to itself the main financial flows, profitable fields of activity. In Bahrain, for example, the majority of the population are Shiites, and the ruling dynasty of Aal Khalifa is Sunni. Therefore, the unrest in Bahrain and caused such concern in the neighboring Sunni country. They even brought their units there, helped to suppress the unrest of the Shiites. In Iraq, after the American occupation, the Shiites took power, and now the Sunnis from an elite group of the population have become an oppressed minority. In Saudi Arabia, the Aal Saud dynasty holds power, and it is blocked by Sunni (Wahhabi) clergy, but in this monarchical state there is a significant Shiite minority that lives quite compactly in the eastern province of Al-Hasa, where a large part of the kingdom’s hydrocarbons is concentrated. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the factor of migrants, in all monarchies they are already a significant part of the population, and not full-fledged, oppressed. Even more difficult is the situation in Sunni-Shiite Yemen, in which a wave of Arab unrest led in fact to a civil war. Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his clan are Zeidite Shiites, despite the fact that there are many Sunnis in the state. In other countries of the Arabian Peninsula, the majority of the population and the ruling groups are Sunnis (Wahhabis).
In addition, for the countries of the Arab world, the Islamic world is very typical intra-regional competition, the struggle for influence between individual countries and groups of countries, this leads them to interfere in the internal affairs of other states. They are supported by opposition groups, parties, movements, including terrorist, insurgent movements. So, Iraq’s competitors were Saddam Hussein and Saudi Arabia. Libya Gaddafi did not like the monarchy of the Arabian Peninsula, the Colonel was too active, passionate leader. This was one of the reasons for the Libyan war. So, the requirement to create an unmanned zone over the Libyan state was formulated by the League of Arab States. Some Arab states joined the Western coalition, Qatar undertook to sell oil to Libya. They fought with him for influence on European leaders, and the Saudis eventually won.
Saudi Arabia and other Sunni monarchies are opposed to Shiite Iran and Alawite Syria. For Tehran it would be ideal to cause a split, the collapse of the Sunni monarchies. The same Bahrain in Tehran is considered historically Persian territory. Tehran has its own national minorities - Kurds and Azeris
We can not forget the "Neo-Ottoman" ambitions of Turkey. In Ankara, they believe that these lands belonged to the Ottoman Empire and therefore traditionally belong to the sphere of influence of Turkey. New leaders of Turkey, stripping the military, secular elite, are ready to fight for leadership in the Islamic world. And even ready to kill them "pieces" in the event of the collapse of neighboring countries, for example, Northern Iraq. In this respect, the situation in Syria is indicative - Ankara has more than once strictly demanded that the military operations against “peaceful demonstrators” be stopped.
We must clearly understand that the current borders are artificial, they were actually arbitrarily drawn by European colonizers. Many states did not even exist in the minds of local elites until the British came up with them, for example: Jordan, Bahrain. The real states of the Islamic world are Iran, Turkey, and from the mass of the Arab states it would be more logical to create a single Arab power with a center on the Arabian Peninsula. Worthy of their state Kurds, Berbers.
It is clear that just as easily drawn these boundaries, you can just as easily change them. Just need political will, significant financial resources and contacts. The Anglo-Saxons have all this.
In fact, the redrawing of the map began with the US and NATO invasion of Iraq - in 2003. The former Iraqi state is no longer there, there is Iraqi Kurdistan in the north, a Shiite entity in the south and east, and Sunni lands in the deserts of the west. This is proved by the actions of Iran and Turkey against the Kurds. Iranian and Turkish troops are leading, or were real fighting in the north of Iraq, Baghdad did not respond. Ignored this fact and the United States. At least at the official level.
"Signals" from the West
Back in 2006, retired lieutenant colonel Ralph Peters (worked in the US National Military Academy, was an employee of the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence in the US Department of Defense, wrote many papers on the strategy) in the article “Bloody Borders” in the publication Armed Forces Journal published a map New Middle East. In it, Saudi Arabia is dismembered - a new theocratic state will be created with Islamic shrines Mecca and Medina. A new Shiite state has been created consisting of Southern Iraq, present-day Kuwait, and parts of Saudi Arabia. Created an independent Kurdistan, dismembered Pakistan.
There are other ideas on how to “equip” the Middle East. American Professor Michael Devi from the French University. Francois Rabelais, he is attracted to lectures and the Pentagon in his article “Reconstruction of the Middle East” informs that when creating new states one should follow the rule of US President Woodrow Wilson “every nation on its territory”. But at the same time it is necessary to take into account the strategic interests of the European powers. He recalls the so-called. “Axis of evil”, which at one time was officially recognized in the United States - Sudan, Iraq, Syria. Sudan is already officially dismembered, Iraq is dismembered de facto, next in line is Syria. A small Alawite state on the coast should remain from Syria, the rest of the Sunni territory should merge with the Sunnis of Iraq, into a new state. The destruction of the Syrian state will allow the Golan Heights to be left behind Israel.
Deprived of Syria’s support, Lebanese opponents of Israel will be crushed, and Lebanon will be dismembered into Shiite and Maronite Christian states. A Palestinian state will be created in place of Jordan, in exchange for the assignment of East Jerusalem to Israel. Saudi Arabia, as in terms of Ralph Peters, will also be dismembered. This will solve the problem of Islamic extremism, Wahhabism, which is sponsored by the Saudis, will destroy their monopoly on significant hydrocarbon reserves.
Another version of the new states was proposed by the magazine Vanity Fair, he interviewed four experts - historian David Fromkin, a diplomat who worked in the Middle East, Dennis Ross, as well as scientists Kenneth Pollack and Daniel Byman. They considered that Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt would be divided into two states - the urban region in the Nile delta and the Western tribal region. Kuwait and Qatar will be added to the UAE, they will form a new democratic, secular, liberal state. The Levant region on the Mediterranean coast will become a cosmopolitan region, similar to the city-states of antiquity.
Therefore, it is clear that in the West there is agreement on the need for "restructuring" the Middle East, the Arab, Muslim worlds. The only question is which method will be the predominant, military force, too expensive, troublesome. Therefore, the method of “democratic revolutions”, with the support of NATO forces (if the leader of the country, like Gaddafi resists), will probably still be the main one.
It is clear that after they crush Libya, Syria, Iran, the Russian Federation will be next in line (and the maps of the creation of new states in place of Russia have been drawn for a long time) and China.
Map of American Lt. Col. Ralph Peters