Military Review

Two Koreas: what hinders unification

19
Two Koreas: what hinders unificationA conference on the economic integration of the Korean Peninsula and economic cooperation in Northeast Asia was held in Seoul. The forum was attended by representatives of government agencies in South Korea, diplomats, experts, scientists and businessmen. All these people set out to: count the benefits of combining the two separated Koreas. However, man does not live by bread alone: ​​besides benefits, there are also serious differences in the philosophy of unification. And do southerners and northerners really want to unite?

Decades have passed since the division of Korea into two states: the DPRK and the ROK. Relatives and friends who are on opposite sides of the borders no longer grieve so: they are used to it. Many have already died in years past. The Juche ideology and nuclear aspirations of the young Kim Jong-un scare the South Koreans from the north. The propaganda drawing the DPRK as a country of hungry communism also frightens off (which often turns out to be a common fiction of journalists). As a result, the demilitarized zone between the two countries is perceived by the Southerners as a terrible border, separating from them a terrible northern country with incomprehensible people.

However, the people have one mood, the politicians have another. Both governments are constantly talking about the reunification of the once united country. In the South, Germany, reunited with the Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev, is cited as an example (the date of the fall of the Berlin Wall, which is a real symbol of the division of the German people) was recently noted.

However, political statements and the wishes of the people are different things. Southerners, especially the young, according to a number of recent sociological polls, are not at all torn by the call of politicians to fraternize with northerners. Most of the South Korean youth generally oppose reunification, that is, rejects the idea itself.

In addition, the unification of the two countries would cost a huge amount comparable to that once spent by the Germans. And, presumably, the southerners would have to fork out: after all, the northerners have no money. This is proved by ordinary figures.

50,2 million people live in the Republic of Kazakhstan, and 24,5 million people live in the DPRK, that is, approximately half as many. At the same time, the nominal GDP of South Korea is 1441 trillion won, and North Korea - 34 trillion. out The difference is astronomical! GDP per capita is 28,7 and 1,4 million won, respectively.

It is also known that Russia has recently forgiven 10 billions of dollars of debt to insolvent North Korea. South Korea is one of the foremost modern high-tech production. No one would ever think to forgive the debts of South Korea.

Oleg Kiryanov conveyed for "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" report from Seoul, in which he told what dividends would bring the union of South and North Korea.

On November 5, the international conference “Economic Integration of the Korean Peninsula and Economic Cooperation in Northeast Asia (NEA)” was held in Seoul, which was organized by the Korean Institute of International Economic Policy. The event was attended by about a hundred representatives of various government agencies in South Korea, as well as diplomats, politicians, experts, scientists, businessmen.

Professor of Seoul University Son Han Kyung said: "The economic integration of Seoul and Pyongyang will reduce the armed forces of the two countries by 1 million 330 thousand people, reducing their total number from the current 1 million 830 thousand to 500 thousand people."

The Army of the South is now 640 thousand people, and the North - 1 million 190 thousand people With the integration of such a number could be reduced to 330 and 170 thousand, respectively.

The scientist noted in his report that the termination of the inter-Korean confrontation, in addition to reducing defense spending, would bring all sorts of economic dividends: the emergence of a large amount of labor from the DPRK, an increase in Korea’s credit rating and others.

The professor believes that the economic integration of the South and the North will lead to annual GDP growth in the northern territory from 2016 to 2030. on 16%. A similar indicator for the Republic of Korea will be more modest: additional growth will be expressed in the figure of 1%.

RK deputy Hon Ik Pye said that reducing South Korea’s defense expenditures from the current 2,5% of GDP to the EU countries (1,2-1,5%) would already save from 7 to 10 billion dollars a year.

Meanwhile, Kang Moon Song, a professor at Seoul University of Koryo, noted that a sudden unification would provoke chaos. Therefore, an 10-year plan for inter-Korean economic integration should be introduced.

The forecasts of this expert regarding the growth of the GDP of the South and the North differed from those of Son Han Gyong. The scientist believes that the economy of the South will receive a small additional "acceleration" - approximately 0,5% per year. The economy of the northern territory will grow at a rate of 6% per year.

The analyst told in detail about the concepts of integration and their cost. "Strategic Culture Foundation" Alexander Vorontsov.

The author recalls that the program of building bridges with the North by the South arose on the basis of an analysis of the German experience. This was under the presidents of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Kim Dae Jung and Roe Moo-hyun (1998-2007). The long-term program was designed for gradual rapprochement and integration through economic cooperation. In those years, inter-Korean cooperation really went uphill, the expert notes.

The economic convergence was prevented by the new government of Kazakhstan. Right-wing conservative forces came to power in 2008. These people believed that the DPRK is on the verge of collapse, and the North need only help to collapse. The correct way for this is sanctions, military-political pressure and so on. And an erroneous conclusion was made: meaningful negotiations, including the six-party talks on the Korean nuclear issue, are no longer required. Successes in the social and economic development of the DPRK and even some introduction of market elements into its economy were ignored not only at the level of Kazakhstan, but also of the entire international community. Instead, attempts were made to create in the South such state structures that would be aimed at uniting exclusively according to South Korean recipes.

Today's options for combining (on both sides) run into insoluble contradictions. RK President Park Geun-hye begins to strengthen “security measures” in view of possible provocations of the DPRK. And in the spring of 2014 of the year in Dresden, she delivered a keynote speech, the essence of which was reunification according to the “German version”: the South absorbs the North.

In Pyongyang, the analyst recalls, this proposal was negatively received. The answer came from there in September. DPRK Foreign Minister Lee Soo-young, who arrived at the UN General Assembly in New York, recalled the Korean unification concept formulated by Kim Il Sung: unification by creating the Confederative Republic of Koryo. The essence of the idea is in the formation of a republic that provides for the coexistence of two social systems and two governments within one nation and one state. The concept involves a step-by-step approach of the two parts of Korea.

A. Vorontsov cites another plan - the idea of ​​"solar heat" belonging to the Nobel Peace Prize winner Kim Dae-jung, the former president of South Korea. This plan includes three principles (peaceful coexistence, peaceful exchanges, peaceful unification) and three phases (confederation of two independent states; federation of two autonomous governments; unification according to the principle “one country, one nation, one government”). It is evident that there is a lot in common.

However, the South has chosen other approaches, the analyst states. The goal of the southerners is to absorb the territory of the northerners.

It is not surprising that any attempt to implement these (far from peaceful) plans will inevitably rebuff the northerners, which may lead to a new Korean war. And the army of the DPRK, we recall, is 1 million 190 thousand souls - by the number of soldiers it is almost twice the size of the South Korean.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
19 comments
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  1. GRF
    GRF 13 November 2014 08: 06
    -1
    Propaganda...
    1. Chicot 1
      Chicot 1 13 November 2014 10: 45
      +2
      Quote: GRF
      Propaganda...

      The question is whose propaganda? .. North Korean? .. South Korean? .. American? .. Chinese? .. Or maybe some more? ..
      1. wk
        wk 13 November 2014 13: 58
        +1
        Quote: Chicot 1
        The question is whose propaganda? .. North Korean? .. South Korean? .. American? .. Chinese? .. Or maybe some more? ..

        the impression is that after the collapse of the USSR, the DPRK turned into a Sino-American "hairpin" for the countries of South V. Asia. (first of all, Japan and the UK and "KIMA" are happy to pull this strap (an affectionate child of two queens sucks) has long been clear that the confrontation between the United States and the DPRK is a well-oiled fake of the XXI century.
        1. Chicot 1
          Chicot 1 13 November 2014 14: 52
          +1
          I adhere to a completely similar opinion ... I will say even more than that, the unification of Korea is not beneficial to anyone. Neither the Americans (the scarecrow that allows them to hold a significant military contingent in the region) will disappear, or the DPRK (or rather the Kim dynasty and their closest hangers-on, because they will lose power), or China (which is losing a small piece of the sphere of influence and the market). But most of all, this association is not beneficial to South Korea. After all, it was she who would have to raise the economy of a united Korea, essentially at the expense of her own, and not the fact that she could do this without significant losses ...
          So the unification of the two Koreas in the foreseeable future, we are unlikely to see ...
          1. wk
            wk 13 November 2014 15: 03
            +2
            Quote: Chicot 1
            So the unification of the two Koreas in the foreseeable future, we are unlikely to see ...

            I agree with you in everything except the UK .... of course I will have to incur expenses, but what are the prospects! the replenishment of a workforce of sufficient qualifications and well-disciplined (I work in construction and observed how organized brigades from the DPRK work here in Moscow), (with an almost uniform mentality) expanding domestic demand, increasing military power, missile and nuclear (very dubious) but all-important status ... and other cookies ....
          2. wei
            wei 13 November 2014 22: 32
            0
            Quote: Chicot 1
            this association is not beneficial to South Korea. After all, she will have to raise the economy of a united Korea

            I do not quite agree, with a competent approach, the gain is obvious
            DPRK - cheap power slave, nuclear power, space
            RK - electronics, heavy machinery
            IMHO rockets can sculpt worse than Chinese
      2. The comment was deleted.
  2. Alexander Romanov
    Alexander Romanov 13 November 2014 08: 07
    0
    At the same time, the nominal GDP of South Korea is 1441 trillion. won, and North Korea - 34 trillion. out. The difference is astronomical! GDP per capita is 28,7 and 1,4 million won, respectively.
    Nevertheless, the technological backwardness of South Korea from North is also astronomical.
    Only facts wassat
    North Korean media claim that the 17-year-old DPRK astronaut not only successfully landed on the Sun, but also returned back alive and unharmed.
    It is noted that Hung Il Hong went on his journey late at night to protect himself from the harmful effects of high temperatures. The 17-year-old astronaut took 36 hours to do everything, now Hung Il Hong returned home, where he was greeted as a hero. It is also reported that the "first man in the sun" is waiting for a reception at the very head of the DPRK, Kim Jong-un.
    http://www.vladtime.ru/allworld/406528-kndr-zayavila-chto-ih-kosmonavt-pobyval-n
    a-solnce-i-vernulsya-zhivym.html
    1. Sergei1982
      Sergei1982 13 November 2014 13: 57
      +1
      North Korean media claim that the 17-year-old DPRK astronaut not only successfully landed on the Sun, but also returned back alive and unharmed.
      It is noted that Hung Il Hong went on his journey late at night to protect himself from the harmful effects of high temperatures.

      Yes, it seems that the population of the DPRK accepts the same nonsense as the Ukrainians once believe in this nonsense.
      1. Gomel
        Gomel 13 November 2014 16: 22
        +1
        it looks like you take any g ... from internet for truth

        VO turns into a censor ....

        and if you follow the links (and further in the text also through the links) then this is simply an incredible fake.

        The quality of comments on VO is sharply reduced (since February of this year)
  3. Alex_Popovson
    Alex_Popovson 13 November 2014 08: 15
    +1
    It seems to me that Korea can unite only under the heel of some kind of strong uncle Liaohuya. That the Juche people are essentially fascists, that the southerners are never better. Unless to connect them economically, or again play on Nazism; as is known in the Republic of Kazakhstan, problems with the birth rate and all that, the population, as by the way, for some reason, is aging in any white country. And here almost one people, more likely brothers.
    And the rest, the world and for the world need the DPRK. Only for the poor fool to entertain the population of the Earth with his antics.
  4. Oleg NSK
    Oleg NSK 13 November 2014 08: 30
    0
    The existence of the "38th parallel" ... is primarily beneficial for the United States (the validity of the presence) ... hence the dictate in conditions of unification (just to seize ... nothing more), the main goal is the impossibility of unification
    .... accordingly for the United States, the existence of the "38th parallel" is much more important than the absorption of North Korea ... South
    ... in addition, the unification of the two Koreas is contrary to the state interests of Japan, it will have to squeeze very much ... and not even go by the wayside ... but much lower
    1. Oleg NSK
      Oleg NSK 13 November 2014 08: 48
      0
      PS..unification of Korea in the end, I think ... will implement China ... in its composition ... in the form of Korean autonomy
      ... this is the most possible way to unite
      1. Chicot 1
        Chicot 1 13 November 2014 12: 52
        0
        Quote: Oleg NSK
        the unification of Korea ultimately, I think ... will implement China ... in its composition ... in the form of Korean autonomy

        The Han people have too much appetite ... It’s time for them to try on a lip-feeding machine ...
    2. The comment was deleted.
  5. Nayhas
    Nayhas 13 November 2014 08: 34
    +2
    The unification of Korea is possible only after the economic upsurge in the DPRK and an increase in the standard of living of the North Koreans. But this is only possible through the integration of the DPRK economy in China. BUT! This is not possible while the power of the cheeky deb-loid. As soon as he experiences an apoplexy blow, the Juche idea will immediately recede into the tenth plane, like the ideas of communism in the PRC ...
    How this happens is not clear. Either suddenly after dinner, or after the appearance of the PLA in Pyongyang ...
  6. Galich Kos
    Galich Kos 13 November 2014 08: 57
    +3
    In my opinion, southerners and not so bad life. Even in spite of the fact that you have to spend money on a powerful army, so that in case of something you need to fend off ideologically savvy starving people from the north, regularly rattling their bows and arrows and promise to arrange kirdyk to all the capitalists of the world)))
  7. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 13 November 2014 09: 00
    0
    It is not surprising that any attempt to bring these (far from peaceful) plans to life will inevitably cause a rebuff from the northerners, which may lead to a new korean war.

    But the war did not stop. She just went into a phase of a protracted military-political conflict. Northerners will never forget direct American involvement in this war.
  8. Gans1234
    Gans1234 13 November 2014 09: 30
    +1
    Kilometers of minefields interfere, at least.
    In general, everything is complicated - if for single fugitives from S.K. in South Korea there are rehabilitation centers for the normal merger of man with the modern world. This is for a small group of people. And imagine - the whole country is like that. For them it will be even greater shock than for us the collapse of the USSR
  9. Aasdem
    Aasdem 13 November 2014 10: 52
    0
    to push growth and rapprochement, they just need to stop biting.
  10. lilian
    lilian 13 November 2014 11: 27
    -3
    This is what ideology, ideologies do, if they are not compatible with each other.
    Capitalism is also disgusting to me. More like the system that was in the USSR.
    Whatever I gave for life in such a country.
    I do not believe that they are starving in the UK. And poverty and wealth are relative concepts.

    A millionaire, if he loses everything and starts working for 20 thousand rubles, will consider himself a beggar. And there are a lot of countries for which such a salary would be huge.
    1. Galich Kos
      Galich Kos 13 November 2014 13: 11
      0
      More like the system that was in the USSR.
      Whatever I gave for life in such a country.


      What is it up to? Forward, for permanent residence in the country of victorious communism - S. Korea)))
      And why did capitalism not please you so much? Why a person cannot earn as much as he can. for someone 20 thousand rubles. the limit, for someone 200 thousand. - is quite ordinary earnings. Why and who needs this your poor wage leveling?
      1. lilian
        lilian 13 November 2014 16: 38
        0
        You are not the first "smart guy" who makes such a stupid argument.
        As if, just like that, you can take belongings and leave for permanent residence on the other side of the continent.
        For a person who has never thought about questions in his life, it is more difficult "how to grab where with minimal effort" not to understand the essence of humanity's problems. Do not understand those who strive to find out who we are, why we exist.

        "Why can't a person earn as much as he can ..."


        Why are you scolding Berezovsky and other oligarchs? People earned how much they managed!
        Illegally? What are laws? I was not asked when these laws were invented. Moreover, these laws, concepts are extensible. From my own experience I know that various inspections (labor, environmentalists, sanitary and epidemiological stations ....) if they want to find something illegal in anyone, would be a desire.

        "for someone 200 thousand is quite normal earnings"

        But for the Rothschilds, Rockefellers and the hell knows who and trillions, it’s quite normal earnings. Honestly, not breaking the laws!

        Why and who needs this your poor wage leveling?

        In order for humanity to strive for something more worthy than consumerism! With capitalism, mankind has no future.
        Indeed, why equalization ?! If someone is destined to starve to death, then so be it. The number of hungry people will always increase, to please the sums.

        As was the case during the Great Depression:
        Oranges are poured whole wagons to the ground. People travel a few miles to pick up discarded fruits, but this is completely unacceptable! Who will pay a dozen cents for oranges, if you can go out of town and get them for nothing? And the orange mountains are poured with kerosene from a hose, and those who do it hate themselves for such a crime, they hate people who come to pick up fruits. Millions of hungry people need fruit, and golden mountains are watered with kerosene.

        And the smell of decay rises over the country.

        Burn coffee in steamer furnaces. Burn corn instead of firewood - it burns hot. Drop potatoes into rivers and guard along the coast, otherwise the hungry will catch everything. Cut pigs and dig carcasses into the ground, and let the earth become saturated with rot.

        This is a crime that has no name. It is a grief that cannot be measured by any tears. This is a defeat that crushes all our successes to dust. Fertile land, straight rows of trees, strong trunks and juicy fruits. And children dying from pellagra must die, because oranges do not bring profit. And investigators should issue certificates: death as a result of malnutrition, because food must rot, because it is rotted intentionally.
        People come with nets to catch potatoes from the river, but the guards drive them away; they arrive in rattling cars for discarded oranges, but kerosene has already done its job. And they stand in a daze and look at the potatoes floating by, hear the screech of pigs, which they cut and fill with lime in the ditches, look at the orange mountains, on which the landslides of the fetid slush come down; and in the eyes of people defeat; angry is ripening in the eyes of the hungry.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  11. RPG_
    RPG_ 13 November 2014 12: 32
    0
    A stalemate is obtained. The south wants to swallow the north, but it cannot, for it is weaker. And how it is generally possible to combine communism with the republic is not entirely clear.
  12. Wolka
    Wolka 13 November 2014 12: 39
    0
    and the Yankees interfere with their democracy in the region and the notorious 38 parallel of Korean communism ...
  13. Selevc
    Selevc 13 November 2014 14: 02
    0
    Two Koreas: what hinders unification
    The author of the article forgot to put a question mark at the end ... Briefly, the main question of the article can be answered as follows - EVERYTHING hinders the Unification of Korea The two countries are too different and the unification of the two Korean dragons will inevitably turn into the absorption of one by the other !!!

    I think that the South dragon is waiting until the North one weakens to gobble it up economically ...
    If this option happens, then the North Koreans will turn into servants and slaves of their southern fellow citizens !!!
  14. Allax
    Allax 13 November 2014 20: 44
    0
    But this is one and the same people. How simple it turned out to be divided, and how difficult it is to assemble.
    Just like us and Ukraine ...
  15. Peter Medvedev
    Peter Medvedev 15 September 2017 10: 43
    0
    It is strange that they did not note the obvious - the United States would immediately neutralize North Korea and annex it to South Korea if it were not for China, which is not profitable, because China buys cheap coal from northerners, and fears the millions of refugees that form after the military action USA.