Assistant to the President of Russia: we have the answer to all levels of sanctions - from the softest to the toughest
The Russian government has prepared a response plan for new US and EU sanctions. Among them - the imposition of a ban on the import of Western products that can be replaced. These include, among others, products of light industry, new cars, and used cars. In an interview with the Vesti on Saturday correspondent, Vladimir Putin’s assistant on economic issues told Andrei Belousov in an interview with Vesti on Saturday. This is reported by the online newspaper BBC News.
Here is the transcript of this interview, published on the website of the publication:
“Andrei Removich, it was reported that, possibly, the import of used European cars, as well as clothing, will be banned. This is true?
- Now the second wave has come, so it’s necessary to respond. In which industries?
- Otherwise, people will say that they want to be transplanted to the "Lada".
- So these are not Soviet-style jackets?
- That is, the shoe will not touch it?
- In the Leningrad region?
- Whether it will lead to rise in price of the Russian production? Still, food prices have grown, and it shows.
- What about strong alcohol? For example, whiskey can not be replaced.
- This is Onishchenko shift?
- Irish and Scotch whiskey warmed the soul.
“We are all impressed by the results of the preliminary talks of Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev in Brussels.” Recently, we witnessed how individual European countries opposed the line that the "oppression" of Brussels. Are there already cases when separately taken European countries, maybe Latvia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, are ready to continue trading with us?
- That is, it is naive to believe that separate negotiations are possible here?
- This is a very big money.
“But that did not stop the European Union from accepting the second package. And suddenly, within a day after the adoption of the second package, Ulyukayev’s negotiations in Brussels and the readiness of the European Union to delay the start of the work of the Association Agreement with Ukraine until 2016.
- Evidence of this is a very interesting article in RBC that, in spite of everything, we have a growing number of Ukrainian imports of products in certain positions in recent months. It seems that European goods under the Ukrainian label began to penetrate.
- This is not a myth?
- Trying to enter the European market?
-
- Very interesting illustration, indicative.
- Customs Union, European Union.
- Has the position changed yet?
- There is no danger that the leadership of the European Commission will change in the coming days?
- In this case, I ask you to share your vision of the further development of the situation. Next week, the Verkhovna Rada ratifies the Association Agreement with the European Union, but if such agreements were reached at the talks in Brussels to postpone the start of action until January 1 and 2016, a window of opportunity opens for a year and a half. There is a very beautiful idea - true, only in theory, a beautiful one - let's make Ukraine a zone of joint creativity, joint efforts to help Ukraine to achieve the most desired Russian-European economic partnership on the Ukrainian platform. Is it still fantasy or can it be dreamed of?
- And their realistic assessment?
- No matter how it turns out that the Europeans will turn to Russia with a proposal: "Guys, maybe you will continue financing again?"
- I am very impressed by what I saw during the trip with Igor Ivanovich Shuvalov to Vladivostok, Beijing, Singapore. There were a very large number of interesting industrial projects. Another thing is that, against the background of the disappearance of Western credit, it is not very clear how to implement these projects. Can we say that the East Asian banks will be able to compensate Russia for the unconditional obvious lack of funds that has arisen due to the break in relations with the western banking system?
- The legalization of the 30-day period, which occurred in the second package of sanctions, is already de facto.
- It’s enough to take a ride on the Sapsan or on the Sukhoi Superjet to understand the full scale of this cooperation. Joint train and joint plane.
- So you have to look both ways?
- Is there now, in our economic community, thoughts that are not associated with anti-sanctions, about why we should not, under the circumstances, withdraw our money from the same American securities in larger amounts than this, and invest they are here in the shares of their own companies. How do you feel about this idea?
- In Russia?
- What else is in reserve in Russia in the sanctions list? Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev mentioned a possible ban on Western airlines flying through Russia. There are options for withdrawing additional money from Western financial papers. Is there a secret maximum plan at all?
- Iranian sample?
Here is the transcript of this interview, published on the website of the publication:
“Andrei Removich, it was reported that, possibly, the import of used European cars, as well as clothing, will be banned. This is true?
- To be more convincing, I will try to reveal the logic. I just want to say that neither the first wave of sanctions, much less the second one, will be introduced simply in order to punish someone or take revenge on someone. We understand that our agricultural producers, with some support, will be able to increase supplies to the domestic market of those products that are imported today. This is roughly 30% beef. All, of course, we do not close, but somewhere percent 10-15 we can close the internal production. Moreover, over the next two months a unique Miratorg project in Bryansk, a huge complex, 100 thousand tons of meat, will be put into operation. And our import is 700. That is one seventh. The same goes for pork, poultry. Very fast growing product. And here we see no particular difficulties. Potatoes have only 2% of imports, we can calmly shut it all down. We can, without fuss, without any consequences for the domestic market, for our consumer, take advantage of the “opportunities” that the Europeans and Americans presented to us.
- Now the second wave has come, so it’s necessary to respond. In which industries?
- Of course, these are cars. Automotive industry allows us today to increase the production of cars of the same imported brands.
- Otherwise, people will say that they want to be transplanted to the "Lada".
- Not. The entire line of foreign brands is produced in industrial assembly mode in Russia. This also applies to certain types of clothing, such as knitwear, suits. We have quite suitable manufacturers who work in cooperation with the Italians.
- So these are not Soviet-style jackets?
- God forbid! We have long gone from this. There are some areas where it will be difficult for us to limit, for example, shoes.
- That is, the shoe will not touch it?
- I do not want to say what will happen, what will not. It is rational to restrict the import of certain types of wood products. We import quite a lot, for example, of products such as OSB, which are widely used in housing construction. This is a high-tech type of production, now we are already introducing capacity.
- In the Leningrad region?
- This is the Kaliningrad region, north-west, where we can deploy this production. If it gets too far, there are a number of financial services that we can also replace. Bankers will tell us only "thank you." And our domestic consultants will also say "thank you" to us.
- Whether it will lead to rise in price of the Russian production? Still, food prices have grown, and it shows.
- If I say that I will not lead, then I will bend my heart. Any such transition is associated with increased risk of rising prices. The prices have really grown a lot, but it has nothing to do with anti-sanctions. They grew up before we all introduced it. Prices for some types of meat, for example, for pork, have grown. This is mainly due to the rise in price of fodder, which was still the year before last harvest. Prices for dairy products and poultry meat have seriously increased, but once again I want to say that this happened until the middle of this year - it was then that a wave of appreciation started. Now the market is stable. It took a lot of time since the imposition of sanctions. We still do not see anti-sanctions, do not see any local signs that something is happening in the markets.
- What about strong alcohol? For example, whiskey can not be replaced.
- We have already "closed" for some sanitary reasons some types of whiskey. Rospotrebnadzor "closed" bourbon, discovered harmful substances - the way it is. I was specifically interested in this and asked about the reason from Anna Yurevna Popova.
- This is Onishchenko shift?
- Yes. Everything was done rightly.
- Irish and Scotch whiskey warmed the soul.
- The main principle is to not harm the consumer. Another important principle is to help the manufacturer. The government, making these decisions, will not proceed from replacing whiskey with moonshine or, say, replacing Coca-Cola with our domestic Buratino, although, perhaps, this should be done in terms of maintaining health. But we have a consumer who is used to it.
“We are all impressed by the results of the preliminary talks of Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev in Brussels.” Recently, we witnessed how individual European countries opposed the line that the "oppression" of Brussels. Are there already cases when separately taken European countries, maybe Latvia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, are ready to continue trading with us?
- Formally, the actions carried out by the European Union are legitimate from the point of view of European legislation, therefore European countries cannot take advantage of any loopholes or even more to go across the decisions of the European Union. Heads of companies for this face serious punishment, even criminal liability.
- That is, it is naive to believe that separate negotiations are possible here?
- The reaction of Western business, more precisely, business from Eastern European countries - Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, Germany, France, Italy - was very sharp. Our business met the sanctions with calm interest, but the Western business was seriously frightened. And all sorts of signals began. We all understand that these are political games, but understand us, we will play these games, but we very much ask you to give us the opportunity to stay in the markets. Tangible losses are already occurring for European business. According to European estimates, the total losses from sanctions, anti-sanctions amounted to about 40 billion euros.
- This is a very big money.
- Very big. They are very unevenly distributed across countries. Those countries that have close ties with Russia have suffered the most. These are Germany, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Poland, Estonia.
“But that did not stop the European Union from accepting the second package. And suddenly, within a day after the adoption of the second package, Ulyukayev’s negotiations in Brussels and the readiness of the European Union to delay the start of the work of the Association Agreement with Ukraine until 2016.
- Until 1 January 1st 2016. I think that common sense served as a push. If we talk about Europe, there is not so much economic as political interest. If we talk about the European-Ukrainian negotiations and the agreement that they concluded, Russia from the very beginning, through the lips of leaders and experts, stated the problems that this agreement creates for Russia. These problems can be reduced to several points. First: the Ukrainian market opens, and European goods will squeeze Ukrainian goods onto the Russian market. Second: European goods can move there under the guise of Ukrainian goods.
- Evidence of this is a very interesting article in RBC that, in spite of everything, we have a growing number of Ukrainian imports of products in certain positions in recent months. It seems that European goods under the Ukrainian label began to penetrate.
- Our customs service periodically catches Polish apples that "move" through the territory of Ukraine, Spanish carrots.
- This is not a myth?
- Not a myth, but quite a clear thing. An even more significant thing is the so-called technical regulation. These are the requirements for the parameters of engineering products that are set for manufacturers. The fact is that our Ukrainian exports to Russia and to EU countries are about the same in terms of volume. If you take the Customs Union, that's about 20 billion dollars. But only to the EU countries, Ukraine supplies mainly low-processed food raw materials — agricultural products, metals — and to us — a third of this import, engineering products, chemical products, a number of other goods of a fairly high degree of processing. And when these rigid restrictions are established, this means that the Ukrainian market for Russian engineering products is automatically closed completely. Already, none of our types of equipment in Ukraine can be supplied. But trade is not a game with only one goal. And here our European colleagues simply hurried to so clearly demonstrate a desire to throw Russia out of the Ukrainian market and replace it with their own goods. The same is sanitary and phytosanitary measures. We have three opportunities for agricultural products to enter the Russian market: through the audit system of the national control system, through on-site inspections and through guarantees of services that carry out sanitary control. Europeans have only one - an audit. This system operates more strictly than customs and tariff measures. Europeans have a low tariff - about 2-3%. But we, for example, try to observe everything with our bird, which is grown from European embryos. We deliver here embryos for incubators according to European technologies, all the rules are followed.
- Trying to enter the European market?
-
11 years we are trying to break through this barrier.
- Very interesting illustration, indicative.
- For other products - 7 years. The Europeans very quickly gathered, during the year, to take Ukraine under this cap. This will again mean the export of European goods to Ukraine, and not a single type of our agricultural products will simply “go there”. We presented all these things to our European colleagues, but in response there were sluggish discussions: you are mistaken, let's see, we will carry out monitoring. The last time it sounded at a meeting in Minsk.
- Customs Union, European Union.
- Customs Union, European Union and Ukraine. The Europeans simply said that they could only offer us to ratify the agreement, sign and see together, create monitoring.
- Has the position changed yet?
- Now there has been a radical change in attitude. Our counterpart, however, had already retired, Karl de Guft, European Commissioner for Trade, took the initiative - he was a participant in the negotiations - that let us, as you suggested, postpone the introduction of these same tariffs by a year and a half.
- There is no danger that the leadership of the European Commission will change in the coming days?
- There is a danger, but our negotiators have fixed it - I have not yet seen the final documents, but I hope that all this is written on paper, all actions should be mirrored. If we agree, you postpone for a year and a half, and we will postpone the introduction of protective measures for a year and a half.
- In this case, I ask you to share your vision of the further development of the situation. Next week, the Verkhovna Rada ratifies the Association Agreement with the European Union, but if such agreements were reached at the talks in Brussels to postpone the start of action until January 1 and 2016, a window of opportunity opens for a year and a half. There is a very beautiful idea - true, only in theory, a beautiful one - let's make Ukraine a zone of joint creativity, joint efforts to help Ukraine to achieve the most desired Russian-European economic partnership on the Ukrainian platform. Is it still fantasy or can it be dreamed of?
- The economy of Ukraine is in such a dramatic situation today that it’s totally irrelevant to talk about its integration, whether it be into the economy of the European Union or the general economy of the countries of the Customs Union. My hypothesis that the main motive for the fact that the Europeans came out with such an initiative, we were supported, was not the rigidity of our anti-sanctions.
- And their realistic assessment?
“And their realistic assessment is that if they continue to press in the same direction as they were pressed, they will remain alone with the falling economy of Ukraine.” And the measures of the International Monetary Fund, and some other measures in the conditions when Russia closes its market for Ukrainian goods, will simply be critically ineffective.
- No matter how it turns out that the Europeans will turn to Russia with a proposal: "Guys, maybe you will continue financing again?"
“I have no doubt that this will be the case, that our colleagues will further turn to us and say: we are the largest trade partners of Ukraine, let us help her together.” But I want to remind you about the letters that President Putin sent some time ago to the leaders of key European countries to whom Russia supplies gas. In these letters it was said that we supported the economy of Ukraine from the very beginning of the 90-s. We even made calculations of how much we actually subsidized directly or indirectly into the economy of Ukraine, starting with the 2000s. This figure is calculated not even by tens, but by hundreds of billions of dollars. Huge value. And where were you at this time? And you have created a negative trade deficit for Ukraine; you dragged resources out of Ukraine. Imports of European goods to Ukraine exceed Ukrainian exports by about 10 billion dollars. Therefore, it is reasonable to say that you can probably be saved together, but on a parity basis and without the fact that this will again be a game with only one goal. It’s hard to say how Europeans are ready for this, the future will show.
- I am very impressed by what I saw during the trip with Igor Ivanovich Shuvalov to Vladivostok, Beijing, Singapore. There were a very large number of interesting industrial projects. Another thing is that, against the background of the disappearance of Western credit, it is not very clear how to implement these projects. Can we say that the East Asian banks will be able to compensate Russia for the unconditional obvious lack of funds that has arisen due to the break in relations with the western banking system?
- A total break with the Western banking system has not happened and cannot happen, because it will mean stopping a number of projects in which the West is interested, primarily German and French companies. But if, after all, there are some restrictions, they have already appeared in the second quarter.
- The legalization of the 30-day period, which occurred in the second package of sanctions, is already de facto.
- Yes, it is gradually coming. Of course, Asian banks - and these are the largest banks in the world - can easily replace the drop-down European loans. But I want to say that we should not fall into the euphoria of this reversal from West to East. The Russian economy needs both the East and the West. It is so located, so economically positioned. We need contacts with Europe primarily because we are already very closely cooperatively connected with some countries. Six thousand German companies operate in Russia, about the same Russian companies operate in Germany.
- It’s enough to take a ride on the Sapsan or on the Sukhoi Superjet to understand the full scale of this cooperation. Joint train and joint plane.
- Absolutely.
- So you have to look both ways?
- Yes, both ways.
- Is there now, in our economic community, thoughts that are not associated with anti-sanctions, about why we should not, under the circumstances, withdraw our money from the same American securities in larger amounts than this, and invest they are here in the shares of their own companies. How do you feel about this idea?
- Within certain limits, I am positive about this. If we talk about the currency reserves of the Central Bank, the money is mainly in European securities. This is due to the fact that until recently, these foreign exchange assets were the most secure. They will most likely remain so in the foreseeable future. All Cameron's passes, for example, about the fact that let's turn off SWIFT, are just ridiculous. Because disconnecting Russia from this system will lead to the fact that the whole SWIFT will simply collapse. This will be the strongest blow to the entire system of financial markets. Attempts to throw Russia out of this system, arrest its international assets, or impose any sanctions on those assets that are in dollars or euros, will lead to a distrust of the European and American currencies rising to heaven. And trust is the key resource of any currency in which to invest. Therefore, I am sure that if the politicians who make the decision are in their right mind, they are quite rational people, all the same, this will not happen. Another thing is how efficiently we are to have almost 500 billions of dollars in gold reserves? There are different estimates on this subject, different judgments. I believe that it would be expedient to spend part of this money in the way that the Chinese do it, making investments in assets in different countries of the world, where we need raw materials, mineral resources, for the implementation of large infrastructure projects.
- In Russia?
- Including in Russia, and in transboundary areas.
- What else is in reserve in Russia in the sanctions list? Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev mentioned a possible ban on Western airlines flying through Russia. There are options for withdrawing additional money from Western financial papers. Is there a secret maximum plan at all?
- We certainly have a plan. It was designed as soon as we felt that sanctions were possible. But to say about him is about the same thing as revealing the operational plans of the General Staff in case of war. I can not say that it is. But I can say that there are answers to all possible levels of sanctions, ranging from the softest to the toughest.
- Iranian sample?
- Iranian sample. Yes, a certain set of actions has been developed that can - I want to emphasize this - take effect. But this does not mean that it will be applied. Of course, it will be necessary to make decisions, including political ones, in each specific case. Therefore, it is not by chance that the president said that there could be no automatism here, and the government would decide to what extent these responses would be introduced. ”
Information