Terror - money - terror
July 14 in the sky over Afghanistan could be seen historical and at the same time a symbolic picture: the belly Boeings with the first batches of evacuated American soldiers were gaining altitude, and helicopters patrolling the territory chirped at low altitudes. The effect of the "iron dragonflies" on this day was small. Terrorists blew up a mosque in which a memorial ceremony was held for the murdered brother of President Karzai. The chairman of the council of clergy Kandahar Hekmatula Hekmat and other important persons were killed.
So the Taliban marked the beginning of the departure of the Americans from Afghanistan. And in order to consolidate the impression, two days later they killed the closest adviser to the president, the former governor of the province of Oruzgan, Jan Mohamed Khan. Not a day goes by before the Taliban declare themselves another terrorist act. And all this - with the maximum security measures undertaken by the coalition and the Afghan special services.
The Taliban take advantage of the unwillingness of the Afghan military structures to repel a terrorist danger and are trying to demoralize representatives of the highest echelons of power by terror. It is said that President Karzai’s tears at the stepbroker’s funeral were a sign that despair reigns in his soul. After all, tears for Pashtun are almost unthinkable. However, his position does become threatening. Americans leave him with an army that cannot be relied upon.
Television agencies broadcast reports about "GI," having fun loading aircraft, and memorial services for politicians killed by terrorists are going around the country. True, to save face, the Americans staged a funny ceremony of handing over the security of the country to the Afghan army. It is difficult to say who liked this ceremony more - the Afghan army or the Taliban. In any case, in Mazar-i-Sharif, one of the seven safest cities where the ceremony took place, the Taliban immediately organized a terrorist act. The bomber took with him the lives of four people. Fifteen injured.
Describing his mission as “accomplished,” American strategists are heart-stopping. It is clear that the US administration cannot openly admit the failure of the Afghan adventure. Therefore, the mission refrain accomplished (mission accomplished) will accompany the entire process of the flight of the western military contingents from Afghanistan. And behind the scenes of this big scene, there is another, invisible to the world game, more like a conspiracy of sworn enemies.
Such suspicions arise when trying to obtain information about the real balance of power between the Afghan national army and the Taliban. The findings of the data obtained are so unexpected that the entire official set of arguments of Washington about the “fulfilled mission” begins to seem childish prattle.
American military experts cannot convincingly prove that the army and security forces of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IRA) are ready for clashes with the Taliban. Independent observers point out that attempts to create an Americanized army in the IRA were doomed from the very beginning. In Afghanistan, historically there was no regular army, and even when resisting external aggressors, the Afghans always acted as an association of tribal units. For many centuries, this force has proven its effectiveness.
Attempts by the coalition to create a regular Afghan army are meaningless, because such a model is alien to the psychology of this people. After all, tribal formations are strong primarily because of their relatives and coreligionists. And in the regular army, although formed taking into account the ethnic composition of the population, half of the Pashtuns, 40 percent of Tajiks, 7 percent of Uzbeks and 3 percent of the rest — try to inculcate the values of “democratic order and progress” instead of the traditional spikes. The main goal of such training is to give the former militants a new motivation. In other words, “to make a snake a hedgehog”. Particular emphasis is placed on practicing subordination to civilian authorities and the NATO military command, although ordinary Afghans have not learned to see NATO as a "dawn of mankind." As a result, it comes to the fact that in the first months of service, recruits are not given military uniform, as many of them, having received their soldier's clothes, immediately deserted.
The second weak point is the contractual nature of the army. Many representatives of the poorest strata go into it in order to earn a piece of bread. However, the Afghan government cannot independently contain 80 thousands of troops, even with salaries ranging from 50 to 200 dollars per month. In addition, a cutback in US aid to Kabul has already been promised. And most importantly - the contract never had a high fighting spirit. A contractor is good only if he feels safe - at the helm of an ultramodern fighter bombing peaceful objects, behind a staff computer, in 200 km from combat operations, etc. And in the violent clashes, his high dream of green money quickly disappears and gives way to fear. In addition, the Afghan contract soldier is weaker than the American one, because on the other side his brothers in faith fight against him, fanatically confident in the rightness of their cause. Such a contract can not, like American mercenaries, see only targets in people.
On top of that, the Afghan soldiers are constantly subjected to religious and political treatment by the Taliban. A widespread view of representatives of the West as enemies of Islam plays a significant role in this. A new generation of Afghans who refused Allah for Pepsi has not yet appeared. Speaking at an international conference in Paris, the former commander of the coalition forces, General David Petraeus, now director of the CIA, talks about the situation in Afghanistan as shaky and able to return to the starting point. It’s hard not to agree with him, if, according to the Americans themselves, only one (!) Of the Afghan battalions from the 160 Afghan battalions can be considered completely reliable. The rest depend on American support and American command. According to a special program, the Americans managed to bring 10 militants back to peaceful life in 2300 years, and the total number of militants reaches 35 thousands. Successes are more than modest, especially considering that the United States spent 1,3 trillions on the war in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Americans are well aware that the national army of the IRA is a phantom that will dissipate when the first Taliban troops appear. So what really happens? After all, someone from the American politicians will have to answer if the house of cards of the “fulfilled mission” built by them suddenly crumbles?
Perhaps the answer lies in the reports that the Americans are in intensive negotiations with the Taliban with the mediation of German diplomats. Even without knowing the substance of the negotiations, we can confidently assume that we are talking about the rules of the game for the post-war period.
What do the USA want from the Taliban?
- The Taliban should not arrange a massacre of pro-American politicians and establish a totalitarian regime;
- The Taliban should not give al-Qaeda freedom of action in the country;
- they must take the path of forming a government of national unity;
- they should not destabilize Pakistan.
What do the Taliban want from the US?
“They want the complete withdrawal of the Americans and their continued non-intervention in the life of Afghanistan;
- they want assurances against revising the latest decisions of the US administration regarding the IRA;
- and most importantly: they want compensation for the material damage that the coalition has inflicted on Afghanistan for 10 years of intervention.
Money is the axis around which the wheel of negotiations revolves. For a good fee, especially if the money goes forward, you can promise to prevent a catastrophe and say in an unwavering voice that the mission is accomplished.
Of course, if the Taliban are not deceived.
Do Americans believe the Taliban? Of course, they do not believe, but where to go. Negotiations with the Taliban - this is a kind of haircut, which is called "with a black sheep, even wool shred." In addition, for deceiving the Taliban may receive a premium cruise missiles. So the negotiations make sense.
Americans in particular are concerned that after the return of the Taliban, Al-Qaeda will once again find a safe haven and support base in Afghanistan.
The Pentagon's claims that al-Qaeda is "virtually defeated" cannot be taken seriously. This organization partially went to Pakistani Balochistan and only temporarily reduced its activity in Afghanistan. Attempts to fight al-Qaeda in the area with drones brought nothing but civilian deaths and problems with Pakistan. Al-Qaeda leaders are clearly waiting for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghan territory to be completed. Time works for them. In the meantime, they have turned their attention to Yemen and are achieving successes there that the Obama administration prefers to keep silent about ... Al-Qaeda-led militants have captured vast areas in southern Yemen around the port of Aden.
“Al-Qaida’s strength is growing, we’ll lose the war to it,” said Muhamed Saif Haidar, a prominent Yemeni expert on terrorism. - Among Yemeni followers of Sharia who want to build their Caliphate in the south of the country, al-Qaeda members form a solid core. They are already setting their own rules in the captured areas, imposing the death penalty for adultery and cutting off the hand for theft. They catch government employees and policemen, patrol the streets and burn secular books. The first execution of a homosexual has already taken place in one of the villages. ”
Al Qaeda is preparing to take Aden - a strategic port in the region. His governor has already fled, government units resist with all their might. All the infrastructure leading to the city has been cut.
After the capture of the city, the terrorists will take control of the coast of the Gulf of Aden. This is a difficult terrain with many mountain formations, convenient for guerrilla war against the regular troops. The Somali side of the gulf is ruled by the terrorist organization Al-Shahab, created at the time by bin Laden. As a result, the “warriors of Allah” can take control of one of the most important sea arteries of the world - the Gulf of Aden, together with the Bab el Mandeb neck, the width of which is at the narrowest point of all 26 kilometers. An endless series of tankers and container ships from Europe to Asia and back passes through this strait.
How then will the situation begin to evolve? After all, the "bottle throat" is easy to shut up in many ways. Starting from shelling or mining, ending with the flooding of ships. If the hands of terrorists close on the neck of Bab el Mandeb, this will unprecedentedly drastically change the geopolitical situation in the world. Never before has a terrorist organization placed such a sensitive geopolitical point under its control. There is no doubt that in this case the “crusade against terrorism” will become inevitable.
Is this why the Obama administration is not “noticing” the danger? One gets the impression that she is waiting for the boil to ripen in order to start removing it with maximum noise and the largest possible use of funds - again, framed by secret negotiations in which astronomical amounts of dollars go off in mysterious directions.
And what is most interesting is that it is known in advance where al Qaeda will begin to move under the pressure of the “crusaders”. And it seems that the game "terror - money - terror" can be continued indefinitely ...
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