Scarecrow sanctions
From the very beginning of the escalation of the conflict between the Kiev regime and Novorossia, Western, as well as Western-controlled Russian media, began to spread information about how terrible for Russia the consequences of the economic and political sanctions imposed by the United States and their satellites. Like, if Russia does not give up moral and, what to conceal, practical support for the Novorossiysk militias and the civilian population, then it will face a severe economic crisis, almost hunger and social collapse, which will inevitably end in the collapse of Russian statehood. At the same time, the myth is widely used that a certain “world community” imposes sanctions on Russia.
What is the “global community” in this context is not entirely clear? Why, for example, Lithuania or Estonia, with its own economy practically destroyed, supplying only guest workers to the West, or the “country of blue tulips” the Netherlands is a “global community”, and Venezuela or Iran, not to mention China or India, is not "global community"? As if the supporters of the notorious American “new world order” did not want that, even the collapse of the Soviet Union did not turn the modern world into a unipolar world. The demonstrative power of the United States, consisting in its aggressive expansionist policies, is largely intended to cover its own American problems, from the huge economic debt to social and racial conflicts in states. On the other hand, the economic growth experienced by countries that a century ago had served only as an object of the colonialist aspirations of the United States and European powers was no longer a secret. China, once divided by European countries, the United States and Japan into "spheres of influence", over the decades of communist rule, became one of the strongest world powers - not only militarily, which could be explained by the billions of Chinese people, but also economically. India is coming. Many countries in Latin America have long ceased to be "banana republics". Gained the power of Islamic Iran. And all of these states, not to mention the less significant countries of Asia and Africa, for some reason do not belong to American propaganda and its Russian paid and free assistants to the “world community”. But none of them is going to impose sanctions on Russia. Moreover, they are exporters of a significant amount of consumer goods that can replace European products on the Russian market.
Needless to say that most of the Russian population is absolutely not afraid of the sanctions of the United States and the European Union. Let's start in order. According to opinion polls conducted by the Levada Center, only 28% of Russians have international passports. This suggests that the overwhelming majority of the country's population (more than two thirds) have already not been a priori in the “far abroad”. Of the total number of respondents, 76% have never been on business trips and business trips outside the former Soviet Union, while 60% have never been on holiday. Only 7% of the population can afford annual trips to overseas resorts.
If we present the averaged characteristics of people who most often travel abroad, then it is more likely that they will be residents of Moscow or St. Petersburg, people with high incomes by Russian standards, and in social terms, specialists with higher professional education. But Russia is not reduced to capitals, as well as Russian citizens - to highly paid managers, businessmen or "creacles." Needless to say, rural residents, residents of small cities, citizens with low incomes (who predominate in the social structure of the Russian population) cannot afford to travel abroad. Accordingly, it is unlikely to affect the quality of life of the majority of the population and problems with traveling abroad. They are simply not affected by the basic layer of Russian society. And among those who more or less regularly travel to rest in other states, the overwhelming majority are not chosen further than Turkey or Egypt. A very limited circle of citizens can afford to travel to Europe.
To a lesser extent, Russian citizens are prone to buying real estate in other states. Especially in those who today impose sanctions against Russia. Having a second flat or house in the United States or Western European countries, in most cases, can afford not even a wealthy person, but a rich or super-rich person. Even the part of the wealthy Russians who buy “resort” housing in Turkey or in Cyprus is not included in this number. What can we say about the bulk of Russian citizens who can only afford an apartment in Russia - and that at best.
Further. The second moment. We are talking about sanctions on certain food products imposed by Russia in response to Western sanctions. As is known, the Russian government has decided to impose an embargo on the supply of the following food products from the United States, European Union countries, Australia, Norway, Canada for a period of one year: meat, fish, poultry, crustaceans, sausages, clams, milk and dairy products, cheeses, legumes, vegetables, fruits and nuts. That is, in fact, a ban has been introduced on the importation into the country of virtually all types of food products from the indicated states. As soon as Russia thus responded to US-European sanctions, the liberal media raised a real hubbub about the catastrophic nature of this decision for the Russian economy. Although it is obvious that despite certain difficulties, which, of course, will be connected with the embargo, this decision can hardly be considered to be harmful to the Russian economy from a strategic perspective.
The fact that the food security of the Russian state is not at a high enough level, domestic experts have been talking for a long time and repeatedly. The report of the Izborsk club, published by the team under the leadership of Sergei Glazyev, evaluates the food security of the Russian state as unsatisfactory, and this condition is directly dependent on the orientation of the Russian market for the supply of foreign food. The authors of the report warn about the real negative consequences of such a situation for the national security of the Russian state. After all, the problem of providing the country with food is one of the key in modern conditions. The key to improving the level of food security of the Russian state is, firstly, the revival of the country's agriculture, and secondly, the increased requirements for quality and other characteristics of food imported into the Russian Federation. That is, the restriction of food imports from abroad is ultimately, as scientists note, an undoubted good for the Russian economy and the security of the Russian state.
Meanwhile, it is difficult not to notice that in recent years quite tangible steps have been taken in Russia towards the restoration of the agro-industrial potential of the state, which was undermined in the 1990-s by the privatization and collapse of post-Soviet agriculture. No matter how liberal politicians and journalists try to prove Russia’s lack of opportunities to feed itself, the numbers say the opposite. Thus, the Russian Federation leads in the collection of rye and oats, ranks third in the world after China and India in the collection of wheat. The grain harvest in Russia in 2013 was three times higher than the required level of grain consumption by the country's population. That is, Russia provides itself with bread with its head - and the fact that even foreigners know the bread for everything, at least once in Russia. The situation with sugar is somewhat worse: here Russia provides itself with 75-80%, although it leads in the collection of sugar beet. But again, sugar can and should be exported from the states with which Russia has established a long-standing good relationship. What are the same bad Latin American countries?
The Russians, frightened by sanctions, are frightened, first of all, by the situation in the market of meat products. Indeed, Russia exports up to 30% of meat consumed, although meat production in the country is at a high level and in fact should meet the needs of the Russian population. This is due primarily to the fact that cheap (and low-quality) meat from the same Australia or EU countries is supplied to the Russian Federation. Domestic meat producers are poorly organized, although in recent times there has been an obvious increase in Russian meat products in the domestic market.
A person who prefers to buy non-frozen imported beef / chicken in a supermarket, and a domestic hen or fresh beef on the market from its direct producers, is also unlikely to feel an embargo on products from the US, European Union and Australia. Another thing is that the Russian government needs to pay increased attention to strengthening the domestic meat producer and to providing meat to those regions of the country where agriculture, in particular animal husbandry and poultry farming, is poorly developed or practically undeveloped. But, again, there are Russian trading partners who are able to supply inexpensive meat that does not differ in quality from the Australian or European one. This is the same Brazil with large livestock, other Latin American countries, the former republics of the Soviet Union, Iran. You can find a way out even in case of insufficient meat production in Russia itself.
On the other hand, the bulk of expensive luxury products that make up the assortment of supermarkets are imported to Russia. However, only a very limited stratum of the Russian population can afford to buy these products regularly - people with incomes much higher than average. For most Russians, expensive food products are bought only a few times a year - for big holidays, and in many cases they are never bought at all.
On the other hand, the introduction by the Russian authorities of an embargo on food supplies from the United States, the European Union and their satellites was received with great satisfaction in many countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. It is known that these states are mainly agricultural and agricultural products are among the main exported goods. Mutual sanctions with the United States and the European Union will only have a positive effect on the development of Russian trade relations with Asian, African and Latin American countries. Thus, over the last month (from 8 August 2014), the Rosselkhoznadzor has already held consultations and negotiations on the supply of agricultural products to the Russian market with the responsible structures of China, Turkey, Serbia, Egypt, Mauritius, Ecuador, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, Sri Lanka, Paraguay, Guatemala and Argentina. In early September, 2014 became aware of the projected increase in food supplies from the Kingdom of Morocco and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Tunisia expects to supply olive oil to Russia, which is distinguished by higher quality than European.
The African states, which previously supplied food to Russia through the mediation of European countries, will also switch to direct food supplies, which will be a mutually beneficial solution both for the Russian Federation and for the countries of the African continent. It is noteworthy that before the introduction of the embargo on supplies from the European Union, a significant part of fruit, as well as meat, was sent to Russia by re-export - i.e. European countries, importing food products from Africa, then delivered it to Russia at higher prices. Accordingly, having lost parasitic intermediaries, both African countries and Russia will benefit, since this will make it possible to lower prices by eliminating the European mark-up. Russia is discussing direct food supplies from African countries with the African Trade Alliance, which includes Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe and South Africa. African partners are able to export up to 100 thousand tons of fruit and vegetables per week - these are citrus fruits, pineapples, bananas, apples, nuts, avocados, strawberries. The export of meat products, mainly beef, can reach up to 45 thousand tons.
On the other hand, promptly responding to the sanctions of the European Union and the United States with the development of trade relations with the countries of the “third world”, Russia should not forget about stimulating the development of its own agriculture. First of all, it is necessary to increase the state support of agricultural producers. Secondly, the harmonious development of agriculture and food supply of all regions of Russia is necessary. After all, the Russian Federation is a huge country with colossal differences in climatic conditions and geographic characteristics. The adoption of the Food Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation before 2020, followed in 2010, was one of the first steps towards changing the state policy regarding food security and agricultural development. In the Doctrine, food security is named one of the most important areas of ensuring the national security of the country. Indeed, with the provision of the basic needs of the Russian population for food, the country will not be afraid of the sanctions of foreign opponents, possible interruptions in the supply of food from other states.
Of course, we should not forget that the imposition of sanctions can be used by unscrupulous sellers of Russian products to raise prices for their goods, but the issue of combating this phenomenon is already in the plane of the effectiveness of regulatory bodies, who are obliged to fight the facts of such speculation and undermine food security.
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