European Union: trade war with Russia
Which EU countries can deliver a significant blow to Russia
The problem of the trade and economic war between the West and Russia initiated by Washington has worsened in recent days. The United States cannot wage a trade and economic war against Russia on its own: the scale of Russian-American trade is very modest. In 2013, US imports from Russia amounted to 11,2 billion, exports from the US to Russia - 16,5 billion. Accordingly, the US share in Russian exports last year was 2,5%, and in imports - 6,0%. United States as of 2013 year in the list of trade partners of the Russian Federation occupied only 20-e place.
But the share of the countries of the European Union, which unites 28 states, last year reached 50% of the Russian foreign trade turnover. That is, without European allies, Washington is unable to unleash an economic war against Russia. Consequently, the main burden of the war, as always, will fall not on the New, but on the Old World. Americans know this. Europeans too. In order to better understand how Russia's trade partners in Europe can feel and behave in the conditions of economic war, let us use not European, but European statistics.
First, we present general information about EU participation in international trade. In 2012, EU trade with the outside world amounted to 3479 billion euros, including exports accounted for 1683 billion euros, imports - 1796 billion euros. Thus, the balance of international trade of the EU was reduced with a deficit equal to 113 billion euros. The largest partners of the EU were the USA, China, Russia, Switzerland, Norway. Traditionally, at least since the beginning of the 21st century, Europe has had a positive balance in trade with the United States and Switzerland, and a negative balance in trade with China, Russia, Norway. Imports from China - a variety of industrial products, imports from Russia and Norway - primarily energy. Russia's share in EU exports in 2012 was equal to 7,3%, and in imports - 12,0%. For comparison, the share of the United States in the EU exports in the same year amounted to 17,4%, and in the import - 11,5%. The Russian share in exports and imports in the European Union is what is called the “average temperature in the hospital”. For individual EU member states, indicators vary widely. This is extremely important for assessing the possible consequences of a trade and economic war, because some European countries may not start to feel the war, and for others it can turn into a catastrophe - first economic, and then social.
In view of the above, we present several tables compiled on the basis of official statistics of the European Union (Eurostat), as well as the World Trade Organization (WTO) and analyze them.
Table 1. Trade of the countries of the European Union with the Russian Federation in 2012 and 2013 (billion euros).
Import
Export
November 2012, XNUMX
November 2013, XNUMX
November 2012, XNUMX
November 2013, XNUMX
Austria
3,74
3,07
4,06
4,31
Belgium
8,51
9,98
5,42
5,12
Bulgaria
5,30
4,78
0,56
0,57
United Kingdom
11,52
7,97
5,57
4,67
Hungary
6,45
6,39
2,56
2,54
Germany
40,01
38,30
37,98
36,09
Greece
6,01
6,62
0,46
0,40
Denmark
0,66
0,95
1,54
1,56
Ireland
0,08
0,14
0,60
0,63
Spain
7,99
8,10
2,95
2,81
Italy
18,32
20,01
9,98
10,80
Cyprus
0,06
0,05
0,02
0,02
Latvia
1,23
1,09
1,97
1,76
Lithuania
7,79
7,77
4,35
4,87
Luxembourg
0,003
0,002
0,19
0,16
Malta
0,003
0,008
0,04
0,04
Netherlands
29,46
28,96
8,35
7,96
Poland
21,56
18,66
7,72
8,11
Portugal
0,48
1,00
0,18
0,26
Romania
2,39
2,37
1,05
1,38
Slovakia
5,95
6,06
2,64
2,55
Slovenia
0,38
0,46
1,15
1,19
Finland
10,54
10,49
5,69
5,36
France
11,50
10,26
9,15
7,72
Croatia
1,24
1,12
0,33
0,28
Чешская республика
5,75
5,51
4,70
4,48
Sweden
7,15
5,50
2,72
2,73
Estonia
1,06
0,84
1,51
1,40
Total 28 EU member states
215,12
206,54
123,44
119,78
Source: Eurostat
The statistical data in the table. 1 is presented in the form of a list of countries arranged in alphabetical order. At the same time, the data contained in the table 1 can be presented in the form of tables, where countries are ranked by absolute (value) export volumes to the Russian Federation and imports from the Russian Federation. For simplicity, we leave in such tables only the largest importers and exporters (for 12 countries). 12 of the largest importing countries accounts for 84% of all EU imports from Russia. The largest exporting countries in 12 account for 85,3% of EU exports to Russia. The main European trading partners of Russia, importers and exporters of the European Union are listed in Table. 2 and 3.
Tab. 2. 12 of EU member states, which are the largest importers from Russia (2013).
Imports from the Russian Federation, billion euros
Country share in total EU imports from the Russian Federation,%
Germany
38,30
18,5
Netherlands
28,96
14,0
Italy
20,01
9,7
Poland
18,66
9,0
Finland
10,49
5,1
France
10,26
5,0
Belgium
9,98
4,8
Spain
8,10
3,9
United Kingdom
7,97
3,9
Lithuania
7,77
3,8
Greece
6,62
3,2
Hungary
6,39
3,1
12 countries total
173,51
84,0
Source: Eurostat
Tab. 3. 12 is the largest exporting country to Russia in the European Union (2013).
Exports from the Russian Federation, billion euros
Country share in total EU exports from the Russian Federation,%
Germany
36,09
30,1
Italy
10,80
9,0
Poland
8,11
6,8
Netherlands
7,96
6,6
France
7,72
6,4
Finland
5,36
4,5
Belgium
5,12
4,3
Lithuania
4,87
4,1
United Kingdom
4,67
3,9
Czech Republic
4,48
3,7
Austria
4,31
3,6
Spain
2,81
2,3
12 countries total
95,18
85,3
Source: Eurostat
More than half of all imports from Russia in 2013, accounted for four countries - Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Poland. It is interesting that these same four countries are the main exporters of the European Union to Russia (the share of these countries in the EU exports to the Russian Federation was also more than half). It can be assumed that these four countries were and will continue to be subjected to the greatest pressure from Washington in terms of the introduction of European sanctions against Russia.
The share of some countries in EU trade with Russia is extremely small. These are not only exotic countries like Luxembourg, whose shares are simply microscopic. Some fairly large EU countries also have a low level of trade with Russia. Thus, the share of Portugal in the import of EU countries from Russia in 2013 was 0,5%, and in the export - 0,2%. It would seem that for all European countries, whose share in the EU trade with Russia is insignificant, the issues of economic sanctions against Russia are not relevant. However, this is not quite true. Let the share of some countries in EU trade with Russia is extremely small, but sanctions can hit these countries with a boomerang. We are talking about small countries of the European Union, for which Russia is one of the main trading partners. These include, in particular, the Baltic states and some states that were once part of the socialist camp. In a trade war, EU member states find themselves in a very different position, a very pronounced asymmetry arises within the European Union: its largest trading partners (Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Poland) must strike Russia, and others will suffer the most damage from a retaliatory strike from Russia EU member states. This is what we will say further.
Which EU countries can get the most tangible counter strike from Russia
Speaking about the beginning of the economic war of the West against Russia, we paid attention to the fact that on the European “front” of this war, inside the European Union, new disproportions inevitably arise, which lead to substantial asymmetry. Only foreign trade "heavyweights" in the face of a small group of European countries can cause significant damage to Russia. The backbone of this group is Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Italy. But from the retaliatory strikes from Russia, other EU member states will suffer the greatest losses and are already beginning to suffer ... In order to identify which countries may become the main victims of the trade war, let us turn to the 4 and 5 tables. They show the importance of trade with Russia for individual countries of the European Union.
Tab. 4. Russia's place in the “external” export of the EU member states (2012) *.
Country
Russia's share in total exports of the country,%
Countries for which Russia ranks first
Hungary
3,2
Latvia
11,4
Lithuania
18,9
Poland
5,5
Slovakia
4,2
Finland
4,5
Czech Republic
3,9
Estonia
17,5
Countries for which Russia ranks second
Romania
2,3
Slovenia
4,5
Countries for which Russia ranks third
Austria
2,5
Netherlands
1,6
Croatia
3,4
Countries for which Russia ranks fourth
Germany
3,5
Italy
2,6
Luxembourg
1,3
Sweden
2,0
* “External” export means the export of goods to countries outside the European Union. In addition, there is an “internal” export - the export of goods from one EU country to another. For all EU member states, “domestic” exports are in the first place (almost all of them exceed 50%). “Domestic” and “external” exports constitute total exports.
Source: WTO
In the "external" export of those countries that are not included in the table. 4, Russia occupies lower places. These are the following countries: Belgium, Greece, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Malta, Portugal.
Tab. 5. Russia's place in the “external” import of the EU member states (2012).
Country
Russia's share in total imports of the country,%
Countries for which Russia ranks first
Bulgaria
20,2
Hungary
8,8
Greece
12,4
Latvia
9,4
Lithuania
23,3
Poland
14,6
Romania
4,4
Slovakia
9,9
Finland
17,6
Croatia
7,6
Estonia
11,8
Countries for which Russia ranks second
Italy
4,8
Czech Republic
5,7
Sweden
5,3
Countries for which Russia ranks third
Belgium
2,5
Germany
4,7
Spain
3,2
Malta
2,5
Netherlands
5,2
Countries for which Russia ranks fourth
Denmark
1,2
Slovenia
1,9
France
2,3
* “External” import means the export of goods from countries outside the European Union. In addition, there is an “internal” import - the import of goods from other EU countries. All EU member states have “internal” imports in the first place (almost all of them exceed 50%). “Domestic” and “external” imports constitute total imports.
Source: WTO
In the "external" import of EU member states that are not included in the table. 5, Russia occupies lower places. These countries are: Austria, Great Britain, Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Portugal.
Let's try to compare the data table. 4 and 5. We will see that the lists of EU member states for which Russia is the main “external” trading partner for exports and imports largely coincide. We will make a general list in which we will include the countries for which Russia is the trading partner No. 1 (Table 6).
Tab. 6. EU member states for which Russia is the main partner in both “external” exports and “external” imports (2012)
Country
Russia's share in total exports of the country,%
Russia's share in total imports of the country,%
Hungary
3,2
8,8
Latvia
11,4
9,4
Lithuania
18,9
23,3
Poland
5,5
14,6
Slovakia
4,2
9,9
Finland
4,5
17,6
Estonia
17,5
11,8
Source: WTO
As can be seen from the table of 6, in the European Union there are seven such countries as dependent on trade with Russia. Today, the media writes a lot about the serious consequences of the trade war for Latvia in connection with the ban on import of agricultural products from this country announced by Russia. However, as can be seen from the table. 6, the dependence of Lithuania and Estonia on trade with Russia is even greater than that of Latvia. Consequently, Russian counter sanctions can cause even more damage to the economies of these Baltic states. For the other four countries (Hungary, Finland, Poland, Slovakia), Russia has remained the main foreign trade partner since the times of the Soviet Union.
Of course, these statistics provide only the most general layout of countries in the European Union in terms of the “price” of their participation in the trade and economic war against Russia. This picture must be complemented by other indicators. For example, indicators of investment exchanges. It should also be borne in mind that for a number of EU countries there is a high dependence on energy supplies from Russia. According to Eurostat, the share of Russian gas supplies in the EU energy balance is 30%. Finland depends on the supply of natural gas from Russia by 100%, Bulgaria - by 85%, the Czech Republic - by 80%, Slovakia - by 63%, Greece - by 55%, Poland - by 54%, Austria - by 52%, Hungary - by 49%, Belgium - by 43%, Germany - by 40%. In the list of the most energy-dependent countries of the European Union from Russia, there are thus some European states for which Russia is not formally the main trading partner.
Comparative analysis of trade positions of Russia and the United States in the European Union
There is no doubt that the United States is trying to connect all countries of the European Union to the economic war with Russia, regardless of the volume of their trade with the Russian Federation. In the war there are no extra bayonets. In order to make European countries such "bayonets", Washington uses both the carrot and the carrot. For example, the EU constantly has a positive balance in trade with the United States, and this is the gingerbread that Brussels receives in exchange for its loyalty to Washington. The positive balance in European trade with the United States, by the way, is almost exactly equal to the negative balance in European trade with Russia (see Table 7).
Tab. 7. European Union trade (import and export) with the USA and the Russian Federation (billion euros)
Import
Export
Trade balance
2012
2013
2012
2013
2012
2013
USA
206,6
196,1
293,2
288,3
+86,5
+92,3
RF
215,1
206,5
123,4
119,8
-90,8
-85,9
Source: Eurostat
Brussels is well aware that if it does not connect to the anti-Russian sanctions of the United States, its positive balance of transatlantic trade will begin to melt. Washington will begin to select the "carrot" in the form of a positive balance. And if Brussels joins these sanctions, then this does not mean that the negative balance in trade with the Russian Federation will decrease. Europeans are afraid that, on the contrary, it will grow. The scenario for the development of a trade war is simple. Moscow will block their export supplies to its market for various goods (which it can buy in China and other countries of the world). But Europe will not be able to reduce its energy imports. At least quickly. So Brussels has to constantly assume that it is more profitable: to join the sanctions of Washington or oppose them to the end. As can be seen from the table. 7, the “gingerbread” for the whole EU in the form of a positive balance of its trade with the US in 2013, reached 92 billion euros. However, this is again the “average temperature in the hospital”, in which 28 is “patient” with different severity of illness. Let's try to consider the situation of "patients" individually.
In order to answer the question of which option a particular European country of the EU may be inclined to participate in sanctions against Russia or to oppose US attempts to involve them in sanctions, a comparative analysis should be made of the foreign trade positions of Russia and the United States in each of the EU countries.
Tab. 8. Positions of Russia and the United States in commodity trade with the countries of the European Union (2012)
EU Member
Share in total exports of the country (%) and place among the top five exporters (in brackets) *
Share in the total import of the country (%) and place among the top five importers (in brackets) *
RF
USA
RF
USA
Austria
2,5 (4)
5,3 (3)
-
3,1 (4)
Belgium
-
5,9 (2)
2,5 (4)
6,3 (2)
Bulgaria
2,7 (5)
-
20,2 (2)
-
United Kingdom
-
13,3 (2)
-
8,9 (2)
Hungary
3,2 (2)
2,4 (3)
8,8 (2)
2,0 (4)
Germany
3,5 (5)
7,9 (2)
4,7 (4)
5,7 (3)
Greece
-
3,8 (3)
12,4 (2)
-
Denmark
-
5,5 (3)
1,2 (5)
2,8 (4)
Ireland
-
19,7 (2)
-
13,0 (2)
Spain
-
4,1 (2)
3,2 (4)
3,9 (3)
Italy
2,6 (5)
6,8 (2)
4,8 (3)
3,3 (5)
Cyprus
-
3,2 (3)
-
1,3 (5)
Latvia
11,4 (2)
-
9,4 (2)
-
Lithuania
18,9 (2)
-
32,3 (2)
-
Luxembourg
1,3 (5)
2,9 (2)
-
8,5 (2)
Malta
-
-
2,5 (4)
-
Netherlands
1,6 (4)
4,6 (2)
5,2 (4)
6,8 (3)
Poland
5,5 (2)
2,0 (4)
14,6 (2)
2,6 (4)
Portugal
-
4,1 (3)
-
-
Romania
2,3 (3)
1,9 (4)
4,4 (2)
-
Slovakia
4,2 (2)
1,9 (4)
9,9 (2)
-
Slovenia
4,5 (3)
-
1,9 (5)
2,3 (4)
Finland
9,9 (2)
6,0 (3)
17,6 (2)
3,1 (5)
France
2,1 (5)
6,1 (2)
2,3 (5)
6,4 (3)
Croatia
3,4 (4)
2,9 (5)
7,6 (2)
-
Чешская республика
3,9 (2)
2,3 (3)
5,7 (3)
2,1 (5)
Sweden
2,0 (5)
6,0 (3)
5,3 (3)
3,2 (5)
Estonia
17,5 (2)
6,5 (3)
11,8 (2)
-
* If Russia or the United States occupy a place in exports (imports) below the fifth, there is a dash in the table.
Source: World Trade Organization (http://stat.wto.org/CountryProfile/WSDBCountryPFHome.aspx?Language=E)
What conclusions follow from table. 8?
First, we note those countries that have low significance for the United States, for Russia and for the United States and Russia at the same time. We assume that in the event that the place of Russia and the United States in the export and / or import of a EU member state is below the fifth, then for such a country the importance of export and / or import is low. We get the following.
Lists of countries on the export importance of Russia and the United States (the significance of Russia and the United States as markets)
1. EU member states for which exports to Russia are of low importance: Belgium, Great Britain, Greece, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Cyprus, Malta, Portugal. Total 9 countries.
2. EU member states for which exports to the US are of low importance: Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Slovenia. Total 5 countries.
3. EU member states for which exports to the United States and to Russia have equally low significance. Among the 28 member states of the EU, only one country of this kind has been found - Malta.
4. EU member states for which exports to the US are more important than exports to Russia: Austria, Belgium, Great Britain, Germany, Greece, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, France, Sweden. Total 15 countries.
5. EU member states for which exports to Russia are more important than exports to the USA: Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia. Total 12 countries.
Lists of countries on the import value of Russia and the United States (the significance of Russia and the United States as suppliers of goods)
1. EU member states for which imports from Russia are of low importance: Austria, Great Britain, Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Portugal. Total 6 countries.
2. EU member states for which imports from the US are of low importance: Bulgaria, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Croatia, Estonia. In total, 9 countries.
3. EU member states for which imports from the United States and Russia have equally low significance. Among the EU member states 28, only one country of this kind was discovered - Portugal.
4. EU member states for which imports from the United States are more important than imports from Russia: Austria, Belgium, Great Britain, Germany, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, Cyprus, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Slovenia, France. Total 12 countries.
5. EU member states for which imports from Russia are more important than imports from the USA: Bulgaria, Hungary, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Finland, Croatia, Czech Republic, Sweden, Estonia. Total 15 countries.
Now compare the lists of countries in export importance and the lists of countries in import value of the United States and Russia. It turns out an interesting pattern: if the United States dominates the export of a European country, they also dominate its import. And in the same way: if Russia dominates exports, it also dominates imports. Only in a small group of European countries is there a mixed position of the USA and Russia (dominance only in exports or only in imports). The results of the comparison lists are presented in the form of table. 9.
Tab. 9. Grouping of EU member states in terms of US and Russian trade positions in these countries.
Country Category
Countries where the United States dominates trade compared to the Russian Federation
Countries where the Russian Federation dominates trade compared to the US
Countries with mixed positions of the United States and the Russian Federation.
Country names
Austria
Belgium UK Germany
Denmark
Ireland
Spain
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Netherlands Portugal
France
Bulgaria
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Malta
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Finland Croatia
Czech Republic
Estonia
Greece
Italy
Slovenia
Sweden
Number of countries
12
12
4
Resistance to the imposition of sanctions by Brussels against Russia will inevitably arise. And above all, it will occur in those countries where Russia is relatively dominant in foreign trade in comparison with the United States (such countries in the European Union are 12). At the same time, Washington’s political dominance in some of these countries will exacerbate the situation. For example, public opinion polls in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia show that the overwhelming majority of respondents oppose the participation of their countries in the sanctions, and after Brussels began to join the US sanctions, the percentage of respondents advocating for the exit of these Baltic countries from the European Union began to increase .
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