Military Review

Two conditions of import substitution

40
The most important conditions for fulfilling the task of import substitution set by the president are disavowing the vicious idea of ​​“entering the world economy” and the general nationalization of strategic sectors of the economy, said Konstantin Sivkov, president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems.


Although the sanctions adopted by the “civilized world” against Russia have not yet caused any significant damage to its economy, in the context of worsening relations with the West and its allies, President Vladimir Putin has rightly set the task of freeing the country's economy from import dependence. We must be ready to tighten the sanctions, change their format. The already uneasy Russian - American relations at any moment can become complicated due to the opposition in the east of Ukraine. In such a situation, we should expect the most unpleasant surprises ...

The inadmissibility of the country's growing dependence on imports, especially from competing countries that may become potential adversaries, was said by experts a long time ago, literally from the very beginning of “democratic transformations”. These “transformations” took place under the banner of “entering the world economy”, which in practice meant the destruction of our own industry in order to free the Russian market for foreign producers. Ideologically, this trend has not yet been disavowed. In this regard, until now, there are conversations and debates about whether we need it today. Therefore, the most important condition for successfully solving the task of restoring the economic sovereignty of our country is recognition of this concept as untenable, and the technology of its implementation in our country is criminal, bringing to justice those who conducted it in our country in 90 and subsequent years.

Another no less dangerous situation is the postulate that the private owner is much more effective than the state leader. Under this slogan, we had a mass privatization of industrial facilities. A large part of the enterprises of the high-tech industry associated with basic technologies, that is, with the production of primary, basic products - various materials, microelectronics, etc., fell into private hands. As a result, these industries were mostly destroyed. The destruction of these industries of our industry went under the talk of the "unprofitability of such production." In particular, Russia has practically lost the possibility of producing microcircuits, especially complex ones, such as computer chips, we have big problems with the production of high-alloy steels (therefore, cars made from domestic steel quickly rust, there are problems with the production of high-durability gun guns) for the production of highly heat-resistant materials based on carbon.

Today, the President has set a task to restore such production in our country. This is supposed to allocate a lot of budget money. Their investment in the private sector is inefficient and unfair.

Private owners of previously powerful and efficient state-owned enterprises have already crushed them once, turning them into various secondary facilities, such as warehouses, office centers, etc. And one of the main reasons for this is that these owners, having acquired these enterprises, could not manage them simply because they did not have the appropriate training. It was easier for them to shut down production and use the vacated areas for more understandable tasks for them, in particular, for storing imported products. Additional financial investments to the same people will not give anything - these people simply will not be able to organize the revival of such complex industries. They showed their incapacity in this capacity earlier, when, having obtained these productions in working condition, they could not (and did not want) to keep them. Therefore, such investments in the private sector are obviously ineffective.

At the same time, they are also unfair, because it is wrong budget - to use public money to enrich private owners.

Finally, the revival of such industries will require the coordination of efforts of all sectors of the Russian economy, primarily its strategic sectors.

Therefore, the second most important condition for successful import substitution should be the general nationalization of strategic sectors of the economy. Without this, such a task cannot be resolved in terms acceptable to Russia in the current situation.

This is obvious to most responsible economists and practitioners. Nevertheless, at the initiative of the Russian government, a new stage of nationalization is being planned in the country, and it is precisely the strategic sectors that have remained in state ownership. Obviously, it's time for our president to think about personnel changes.
Originator:
http://vpk-news.ru/news/20491
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  1. Yellow white
    Yellow white 30 May 2014 14: 23
    +3
    I am sure the government is doing everything right, and the GDP is also on time !!!
    1. Pit
      Pit 30 May 2014 14: 30
      0
      The main thing that would do without sabotage. As we like to do it.
      In general, the idea is interesting.
    2. smile
      smile 30 May 2014 14: 40
      +10
      Not being a critic of the modern leadership of Russia, I want to note that nobody can do everything correctly. No one is guaranteed against mistakes, including Putin. And we sometimes observe these errors. Just like the fact that they are corrected. Not always as fast as we would like.
      According to the article. The author somehow preferred not to notice the fact that the main reason for the loss of a number of key technologies was that the USSR collapsed and a significant part of the scientific and industrial potential turned out to be abroad overnight.
      I also think that starting now, at such a difficult moment for Russia, in disassembling with the redistribution of property stolen in the 90s, is inexpedient.
      Firstly, there are statutes of limitations, and it is impossible to cancel them legally.
      Secondly, everything that works now will get up.
      Of course, it is necessary to establish order. But maybe it’s easier to act not so sharply, but to gradually nationalize what really needs to be nationalized, including with the help of proposals that cannot be refused (but within the framework of the existing legislation), without noise and dust? And then, you can get so furious that you can smash all the dishes at home, and there will be nothing to eat .... and on the nose - the arrival of "guests". :)))
      1. pensioner
        pensioner 30 May 2014 15: 02
        +1
        Quote: smile
        But maybe it’s easier to act not so sharply, but to gradually nationalize what really needs to be nationalized, including with the help of proposals that cannot be rejected (but within the framework of existing legislation), without noise and dust

        Wringing generally suggest .... Polite ...
        Good afternoon, Vova! hi
        1. smile
          smile 30 May 2014 15: 16
          +4
          pensioner
          :)))
          My regards!
          Well, in general, yes. You know, sometimes it’s impossible otherwise.
          I am generally opposed to loud screams and slogans. Things must be done on a cold head, quietly, prudently and calmly. Otherwise, you can break firewood.
          By the way, a fairly common practice, including in Western countries.
          1. pensioner
            pensioner 30 May 2014 15: 53
            +2
            I'm all for it! I propose to start with Roshen (well, here it’s possible not to be crazy ...), and then gradually move on to compatriots ...
            1. smile
              smile 30 May 2014 17: 39
              +1
              pensioner
              The counter proposal is to start the process at the same time. One another is not a hindrance. But chichen-chic .... :)))
              1. pensioner
                pensioner 30 May 2014 18: 08
                +1
                Quote: smile
                But quietly ....

                How is ukrainian night? what Well then, for sure, no one will notice how ...
                1. smile
                  smile 30 May 2014 22: 36
                  +1
                  pensioner
                  :))) I will continue:
                  ... Samurai decided ..... RZD CANCER DELIVERED !!! :))))
              2. 11111mail.ru
                11111mail.ru 30 May 2014 21: 44
                +1
                Quote: smile
                But quietly

                ... quietly, quietly ...,
                1. Corsair
                  Corsair 30 May 2014 22: 45
                  +1
                  Quote: 11111mail.ru
                  ... quietly, quietly ...,
                  У smile everything is written correctly (in Ukrainian in Russian phonetic transcription) yes ...
          2. Basarev
            Basarev 30 May 2014 16: 01
            0
            Nevertheless, it is not only strategic sectors that should be nationalized. Everything should be nationalized, and the private owner should be prohibited and legally prosecuted until the private owners completely disappear, since private property is a way of a parasitic existence - without producing anything and without bringing any benefit to the country except harm, the private owner lives comfortably on interest or through the sale of something that he doesn’t belongs. In fact, the private trader appropriates our money with you - even yours personally. Therefore, for all of us this is a matter of highest priority.
            1. smile
              smile 30 May 2014 17: 38
              +2
              Basarev
              You know, you still need to know the measure. In everything.
              Without going into details, and a discussion of whether "private traders" are needed or not, especially since historical experience makes one think that they are still needed, I want to remind you that if you now plunge the country into chaos, redistribution of property, and in general, into any sharp shocks then this will be the most guaranteed way to commit suicide. It seems to me that one should not be so distracted from reality ... it is very dangerous.
    3. sergey261180
      sergey261180 30 May 2014 15: 03
      0
      Quote: Black and White
      and GDP is also on time !!!

      Over the course of 14 years, he began to gradually finish up. Is it sitting on diphenhydramine? lol
    4. Ustin
      Ustin 30 May 2014 17: 01
      +3
      Quote: Black and White
      I am sure the government is doing everything right, and the GDP is also on time !!!

      There are big doubts about "on time". We have been engaged in this process for the second decade. There are results, but very weak ones, and it is unlikely that it will be possible to completely get rid of imports in the coming years. There are technologies and materials that can be produced only over the "hill". There are relatively few of them, but they play a big role, and this is where the emphasis should be placed both by finance and other means. It is not a sin to use the experience of China.
    5. siberalt
      siberalt 30 May 2014 18: 06
      +1
      The government is doing everything right, except following the instructions of the president. laughing And nothing. It goes by.
    6. siberalt
      siberalt 30 May 2014 18: 06
      0
      The government is doing everything right, except following the instructions of the president. laughing And nothing. It goes by.
    7. varov14
      varov14 30 May 2014 19: 23
      0
      “Obviously, it's time for our president to think about personnel changes.” ----- Not about personnel changes, but about personnel cleaning with subsequent re-education in the places of new buildings in the Arctic.
    8. shtanko.49
      shtanko.49 30 May 2014 20: 58
      +1
      When our government takes the initiative in some matter, it’s scary that they will ruin again. They want to replace officials with managers, it seems right, but scary. I remember young managers arrived in the outback from Moscow and St. Petersburg, they started to clean up their affairs with nothing and nothing A lot of things have been ruined by anyone, but things aren’t visible. Unprofitable enterprises will be closed, and people will be dispersed and offered to move to Siberia, this is Medvedev’s new hobby, instead of helping to organize efficient production on site that is suitable for this area.
  2. Reserve officer
    Reserve officer 30 May 2014 14: 28
    +5
    Very controversial article.
    Nationalization of the strategic sector of the economy - of course.
    Refusing to import is highly controversial. In the military field - of course, and the eastern ones - stupidity, in my opinion. For domestic needs, import does not bother anyone and does not in any way affect the country's resilience.
    Regarding private property - also not unique. Any state structure is very slow and excessively bureaucratic, because people do not depend on the result of their work. State structures are unambiguously necessary in the areas of the military-industrial complex and strategic sectors - but mainly because of the admissions of employees to information constituting a state secret.
    1. Good cat
      Good cat 30 May 2014 14: 57
      +5
      And why is controversial, the author writes about import substitution not of chewing gum and cola, but about enterprises providing defense capability. If our helicopter builders depend on engines from Ukraine, then, in the current situation, this is not very good. And that the "private owners" all around the enterprise have closed and the production areas have been redesigned for markets is also true.
    2. jovanni
      jovanni 30 May 2014 15: 20
      +3
      First of all, modern technologies should be sought to import, as if the bourgeoisie did not rest. Why the heck do we export wood, for example, then to import plywood?
  3. Giant thought
    Giant thought 30 May 2014 14: 29
    +4
    The most important condition for the survival of the Russian economy is the resignation of the liberal government with a simultaneous rejection of the liberal model of the economy imposed by Washington advisers and leading our country to nowhere. A certain nationalization, as an addition, would also not hurt.
  4. Vtel
    Vtel 30 May 2014 14: 32
    +4
    Yes, but the 5th column hasn’t left Russia anywhere - Chubais take them. And sho is interesting. And thank God sho Unions fly to outer space, because there is a cover, he usually has Americanos, and they don’t substitute his own. Yes, but how it is necessary to launch a Russian satellite, it takes away missiles - to the wrong steppe, it’s a paradox or a regularity of the 5th dimension.
    1. shuhartred
      shuhartred 30 May 2014 15: 16
      0
      Quote: Vtel
      Yes, but how it is necessary to launch a Russian satellite, it’s taking rockets away - to the wrong steppe, it’s a paradox or a regularity of the 5th dimension

      In-in. The trend however. This is wf for a reason. Are the bees wrong? Or honey?
  5. Flinky
    Flinky 30 May 2014 14: 35
    +3
    Half of the government needs to be dispersed in prisons. They have the place there. Especially a certain Livanov.
  6. Ajent cho
    Ajent cho 30 May 2014 14: 41
    +2
    Observing the latest events, I draw a conclusion for myself: practically all the "harm" caused to our country by the sanctions will turn out to be a huge plus in the near future.
  7. aksai61
    aksai61 30 May 2014 15: 08
    +1
    Here the main thing is not to bend the stick !!! The state should clearly set tasks, and the business (market) to regulate, optimize and orient production ... About the Chinese like :) A type of planned market economy :) A purely planned and purely market economy is a utopia ... The experience of the USSR and the Euro The USA shows this to us quite clearly ... So, it’s time to look for new options :) Well, this is for economists, but I’m a simple design engineer :) They didn’t teach me that :) so, cards, gentlemen, economists ... , research, models and experiments ... And only then the introduction :)))
    PS Do not judge, I could be wrong, I'm not a specialist in economics :)
  8. FlyEngine
    FlyEngine 30 May 2014 15: 14
    +2
    Interestingly, did the government ever even listen to the words of experts and scientists? Well, at least once? Why is the Kremlin deaf and not quick?
  9. Russ69
    Russ69 30 May 2014 15: 16
    0
    Guys, what kind of beast is this ...? Judging by the fact that it is partially sheathed, it is apparently terribly secret ...

    1. Starover_Z
      Starover_Z 30 May 2014 16: 00
      +2
      I searched. Everything is almost the same as in one of the article’s photos.
      http://statehistory.ru/books/Evgeniy-Kochnev_Sekretnye-avtomobili-Sovetskoy-Armi
      i / 89 - Secret cars of the Soviet Army. The MAZ-543 family.

      Namely "Launcher 5P85SE of the export system S-300PMU-1 on the chassis MAZ-543M. 1995".
      Only here are completely different TPKs (transport and launch containers).
      They put more on drill rigs or shot-stick installations.
      Something like this hi
      1. Corsair
        Corsair 30 May 2014 22: 47
        0
        Quote: Starover_Z
        Only here are completely different TPKs (transport and launch containers).
        They put more on drill rigs or shot-stick installations.


        A good "drill" ...
    2. Indifferent
      Indifferent 30 May 2014 16: 22
      0
      These things are more reminiscent of radiated than rocket launchers!
      1. 11111mail.ru
        11111mail.ru 30 May 2014 21: 47
        0
        Quote: indifferent
        These things are more like radiated,

        I ask you not to express yourself!
  10. sgazeev
    sgazeev 30 May 2014 15: 21
    +1
    Great, great. Simple, but tasteful. No noise and dust!

    hi
  11. Reserve officer
    Reserve officer 30 May 2014 15: 27
    +6
    Quote: Good cat
    And why is controversial, the author writes about import substitution not of chewing gum and cola, but about enterprises providing defense capability. If our helicopter builders depend on engines from Ukraine, then, in the current situation, this is not very good. And that the "private owners" all around the enterprise have closed and the production areas have been redesigned for markets is also true.

    Dmitry, I just didn’t like the author’s dismissive attitude towards "private owners". It's very lopsided. The factories were closed not because of the whim of the "newly bourgeois", but because of the lack of government orders and, as a result, the loss of highly qualified specialists. And where the leader was standing, then corporatization was only beneficial.
    An example is VSMPO (titanium). Before taking the place of General Director V.V. Tetyukhin's enterprise was simply dead. Development loans were obtained from Boeing, and, practically on Tetyukhin's word of honor (in the west, by the way, he is called "Doctor Titan", this is what he deserves). For several years, the company became the flagship of the world titanium industry, and such a tasty morsel that they again wanted to make it state-owned.
    As a result, Dr. Titan left (or rather, left), sold all his shares and with that money built a colossal hospital in N. Tagil, with the most advanced equipment, with a camp for specialists. All (!) Money invested in this project.
    Here you have the oligarch, here you have the private owner. So it is not necessary to smear all with black paints.
    1. 11111mail.ru
      11111mail.ru 30 May 2014 21: 49
      0
      Quote: Reserve officer
      Here you have the oligarch, here you have the private owner. So that do not smear everyone with black paints.

      This is an example of an exception. to the rules.
  12. Tartar
    Tartar 30 May 2014 15: 31
    +3
    People, read carefully!
    Nevertheless, at the initiative of the Russian government, a new stage is planned in the country nationalization, and it was precisely the strategic sectors that remained in state ownership

    The author wanted to say that the government is plotting privatization. And there’s a clearly fat hint
    the fact that national traitors are sitting in the government (as the president spoke in the message).
    Purge is needed - otherwise one cannot win a war.
  13. Bezarius
    Bezarius 30 May 2014 15: 33
    +3
    Another equally dangerous provision is the postulate that the private owner is much more effective than the state leader.

    The USSR showed the highest growth rates, and we all know that under the USSR there was no private property. Japan, where private property predominates, tried to adopt the experience of the USSR, but they failed to achieve such results.

    As for the state leader, he performs his duties inefficiently, mainly when he imagines himself a private trader.
  14. Free Island
    Free Island 30 May 2014 15: 36
    +4
    now it’s very important to get out of the WTO as soon as possible .. I was just amazed when we joined it .. just right after Lyuli Srakashvil, when it became clear (even to the last moron it became clear) that the USA was not our ally and partner, as well as Geyropa, when it was clear that the WTO is Kabbalah - they have entered anyway .. what for? :)))
  15. suharev-52
    suharev-52 30 May 2014 15: 39
    +1
    Whatever it says, but our government continues to initiate the privatization of the remaining state property. They have not yet filled their bottomless pockets and therefore regard the ownership of successful enterprises by the state as a challenge to them "irreplaceable effective managers". Personally, I am not against private property, but ... the state should put the interests of its citizens above the interests of oligarchs and thieving officials. Sincerely.
  16. Yellow white
    Yellow white 30 May 2014 15: 53
    -3
    Quote: sergey261180
    Quote: Black and White
    and GDP is also on time !!!

    Over the course of 14 years, he began to gradually finish up. Is it sitting on diphenhydramine? lol


    If possible, argue!
    1. sergey261180
      sergey261180 30 May 2014 17: 45
      +4
      It is written there for 14 years! Few? And what happened in these 14 years and 8 previous? Why did he join the WTO in 2012? Why spend billions of bucks on shows and fireworks? Summits, Olympiads, Universiades. What is life successful? To draw two days in Vladivostok, 20 billion, for two weeks of the Olympics, 50 billion - for garbage! And then foreign investment begs. And what is foreign investment? Foreigners invest money, make a profit and take it abroad. If you invest your money, then the profit remains at home, it can be invested again somewhere, increase the number of jobs, increase the population and fertility.
  17. Palych9999
    Palych9999 30 May 2014 16: 20
    +5
    A good draft for purging the brains (or what is it called by them?) From our "skolkovatsevaty and nanotechnologists".
    Business must be dealt with, business ...
    To produce machine tools, devices, modern composites, and for this not to arrange shopping and entertainment centers from factories like "Krasny Proletary" and "Hammer and Sickle" (in Moscow).
    Cancer drooped.
    It’s time to cross ourselves and reprofile 50-100 legal and financial almshouses (such as such universities) in vocational schools in the best sense of the word, namely Professional, namely Technical Schools.
    Ships need to be built in 1-2 years, aircraft not made 15-16 pieces per year, engines, turbines ...
    There is a personnel reserve - there are 500.000 men in private security offices all over the country, days and nights, standing upright anywhere ...
    Business must be dealt with, BUSINESS ...
  18. sv68
    sv68 30 May 2014 16: 24
    +1
    you can’t achieve anything more talkatively — you need to do everything for the army yourself and on your equipment. Let grunts about the lack of equipment tell your attending physicians. Have money - spend money on developing equipment and running in technologies
  19. Yellow white
    Yellow white 30 May 2014 16: 31
    0
    This is who began to minus posts here, what a quiet guy ????
  20. Sergey Eagle
    Sergey Eagle 30 May 2014 16: 32
    +1
    Nationalization or not? Rather, tight government control over strategic enterprises and absolutely tough demand for lagging behind the level of development in strategic industries in relation to our competitors in the world. The country has everything you need. And military equipment does not need ultra-miniature or ultra-high-speed microcircuits, but super reliable ones with sufficient speed (this is quite a lifting task). And for "James Bonds" single copies are not a problem.
  21. Indifferent
    Indifferent 30 May 2014 16: 33
    +3
    I do not quite agree with the author. Private enterprises are much more flexible and more mobile than state ones. If they are headed by experts in their field, then establishing production is not a problem. In our city, experts from those remnants of the microelectronics industry gathered and formed a private company. They commissioned developed and manufactured microcircuits of any complexity, except perhaps not very large. I know what the processors did. In the beginning, they worked under a Chinese roof. Later, the Chinese became unprofitable. They sold their share and left, and the men work like that. Yes, there are mostly retirement age engineers, but they can do anything! True, relatively recently, their main manager, on whom all orders were held and who had an internship in the United States, died due to an accident. Crazy in the garage.
    I knew all the information from him! How are they doing now - I don’t know! But I am sure that ours can, if stimulated and not squeezed by racket and checks of all kinds of organs.
  22. Zomanus
    Zomanus 30 May 2014 16: 39
    +2
    Import substitution is the right thing. But it is not worth breaking away from international cooperation. For it is both technology and standards. Identity is not always useful.
  23. DanSabaka
    DanSabaka 30 May 2014 16: 55
    +3
    I don’t have anything against the nationalization of strategic growth enterprises, but I want to note that the effective work of any company depends more on competent personnel than on the form of ownership .... and competent personnel are now lacking at all levels ...
  24. Signaller
    Signaller 30 May 2014 17: 17
    0
    RIGHT. It is time to nationalize what the state needs for its needs. Factories, energy, communications, fuel and energy sector, metallurgy, vodka without fail, tobacco production, etc. All you need for defense. Private traders only sew pants, riveting cars, cars, refrigerators and fans. everything else is STATE, Investor is also a state.
    Not what is it to give to private traders, but with us ????
    Investors are looking for. some that the money will be sawed and then cookies will be shown to the country. With this cookie then we will have to fight off the enemies. I personally think so.
  25. persei
    persei 30 May 2014 17: 43
    +1
    Yes, the collapse of our military industrial complex greatly undermined the defense ... abandonment of the SS-20 ... the regional branch (factory) produced m / c for them, the factory was closed as unnecessary (although they could be reconfigured to others), valuable specialist personnel fled ...
  26. siberalt
    siberalt 30 May 2014 18: 17
    +2
    The government is doing everything right, but does not follow the instructions of the president. Putin spoke about import substitution back in May last year. So what? What replaced that? Are there any examples? If private traders are better, then why do Chinese private traders sew jeans for France and America, but ours cannot? With pharmaceuticals, it's a complete bummer. And the electronics? Our private traders can, of course. If the state builds a plant for them, it will buy equipment and donate it for a pittance (called privatization). Remember the story with "Rusal" and Norilsk Nikil. And so they will build Yo-mobiles.
  27. Yun Klob
    Yun Klob 30 May 2014 23: 14
    +2
    It turns out the Soviet Union was not so stupid when he preferred to rely on his own strength.
  28. Cristall
    Cristall 31 May 2014 12: 17
    0
    Quote: sergey261180
    Foreigners invest money, make a profit and take it abroad. If you invest your money, then the profit you receive remains at home, you can invest it again somewhere, increase the number of jobs, increase the population and the birth rate.


    The figures are shocking of course .. the figures of imports of wood and goods from it are especially outrageous! Fuel goods .. metal .. In the world there are 2 main areas of forest (Brazil and the Russian Federation) .. and imports .. It would be nice to know that they just take care of the forest, but most likely the usual process of exporting primary wood and importing products is actually going on ... Similarly and in the oil refining and metallurgical ..
    About the investment. Well, there are examples of such a South Korea, in the PRC too. And different conditions.
    They say the main problem is demographic. Like there be as many people as there are in China. My answer is no, there is Bangladesh .. so a large population is not an option.
    We need to look for the Russian path, it has already been covered in the 20th century. Maybe a variation of Sino-Korean?
    Although there are also nuances.
    It is good to talk about great things, but even the president will not be able to do anything until every citizen is inspired by the idea. And now the era of consumption. Nobody is ready to refuse, endure, the world is global. An idea cannot be so penetrating as to suppress needs. Given that the modern world itself creates needs and satisfies them.
    I can say that in the world it’s hard to change something at all ... Just the desire of groups of people is not enough. It takes the desire of the majority, its willingness to sacrifice ... But how to achieve this in the era of consumption? True, only by activating his basic instincts. This was usually decided by war. Extreme conditions.