Military Review

Strategic goals and tactical objectives of the people's republics

31
Strategic goals and tactical objectives of the people's republics



Despite the military punitive operation and the provocations of the so-called “National Guard”, the referendum was held with a high turnout in both republics and confirmed de jure the status of the republics. De facto, both republics, especially Donetsk, confirm their existence with successful defensive actions, starting in April. Both republics in different situations now face identical tasks. The primary issue that unites the whole range of current problems and tasks of the DPR and the LPR is the reflection of the military aggression of Ukraine. The security problem, of course, should be resolved jointly. Understand this in the republics themselves. So, the co-chairman of the DPR government Denis Pushilin said in an interview to the Russia 24 channel: “We believe that we need to go together.

Preliminary talks have already been held. At the moment, you need to figure out how it will look technically. "
The question, however, is not technical. The current framework of cooperation will largely determine the fate of the entire region. Donetsk - clearly occupies a leading position in the newly formed tandem, however, it is him who accounts for the main pressure from Ukraine.

The current format within the two independent republics is an intermediate result. The consolidation of efforts, primarily in the area of ​​external security, will increasingly inexorably draw the republics at least towards a formally confederative organization, with single armed forces. However, this stage may not be necessary if the parties agree to merge into one state.

The potential of a single political space is much greater than it might seem at first glance. However, it is directly linked to the issue of the current status of the punitive operation. If Ukraine does not withdraw its units from the territory of the DPR, the republics will have to forcefully try to drive them out of their territory, and then go on the offensive.

At the same time, close attention should be paid to such key points as Mariupol, from which, hypothetically, the sea could receive direct assistance from the Crimea, Slavyansk / Kramatorsk / Krasnoarmeysk - which are railroad cars and “gates to Donetsk”. Deblockade and strong control over these points will not only ensure the stability and security of the DPR, but also become a springboard for possible offensive operations against the aggressor to liberate the Odessa, Kherson, Nikolaev, Zaporozhye, and Kharkov regions. In cases of establishing control and unification of these regions in one federal, confederative or unitary state, new opportunities will open up for changing the situation throughout Ukraine in a more favorable direction.

In the meantime, such prospects are rather illusory, since the forces involved in the punitive operation, their weapons and material and technical equipment, far exceed the self-defense forces of both republics. The weak side of the Ukrainian grouping is low combat capability, due to the current reorganization of the army and the disgusting morale of almost all units, with the exception of the National Guard, which, however, is not prepared and equipped for serious offensive operations. All this creates a certain time reserve for the organization of state institutions, the development of strategies for further action.

Of the other actions that do not require delay, should be highlighted:
1. The search for any possible assistance, moral, informational, material, military. Natural allies in this matter are: first of all, Russia, Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia.
2. Ensuring control over the border with the Russian Federation and the stability of the transport corridor from the border to Donetsk, through Lugansk.
3. Clearing the information space from the Ukrainian media from television to print media.
4. Party building, which includes a ban on the activities of any Ukrainian parties and movements, as one of the many steps to build an independent political space.
5. Entry into the ruble zone and further financial and economic integration with the Russian Federation.
6. The nationalization of all Ukrainian enterprises, and selective, in relation to the Ukrainian oligarchs, showing no loyalty to the new republics.
Summarizing the above circumstances, it is possible to assess the current situation of the young republics as difficult, due to military confrontation with a superior opponent, but promising, since This confrontation forces the republics to force political integration, to build their own armed forces and a financial and economic system capable of ensuring the armed forces and fulfilling social obligations to the population.
It remains unclear the prospect of equipping the armed forces of both republics with a sufficient number of small arms, not to mention the armored vehicles that will be needed to ensure stable control over the currently blocked settlements and transport arteries.

The question of joining Russia

The question of the republics becoming part of Russia, raised by the people's authorities the day after the referendum, is likely to not be resolved in the short term. Given the refusal of President Putin’s request to postpone the referendum, the rather moderate official reaction of the Russian leadership in the form of the following message from the presidential press service is clear: "Moscow respects the will of the population in Donetsk and Lugansk regions and assumes that the practical implementation of the results of the referendums will take place in a civilized way, without any recurrence of violence, through a dialogue between representatives of Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk. In the interest of establishing such a dialogue, any srednicheskie efforts, including through the OSCE. "

In the current difficult, but fairly stable situation in the DPR, Moscow has time to determine its position on the status of the republics and the next steps towards Ukraine, whose debt for gas has already reached 18,5 billion dollars.
Perhaps the Russian authorities believe that the separation of the southern and eastern regions is rather destructive for the overall process (see http://shumilov1989.livejournal.com/768.html). If they were retained as part of Ukraine, they would influence the situation from the inside, and could, through upholding their rights, with the support of Russia, lead Ukraine to federalism, which would be an undoubted benefit, both for the citizens of this country and for all its neighbors. Federalization would contribute to national reconciliation, and in the event of its failure, national demarcation, within the legal framework, followed by the peaceful separation of Ukraine.

The entry of new subsidized territories into the Russian Federation in the near future looks doubtful, given the many problems faced by the Russian Federation after the annexation of the Crimea and the expected recession in the first half of 2014. It should be understood that the adoption of politically immature into the Russian Federation, the DNI and the LC, which are also in a state of war with Ukraine, will not contribute to the achievement of Russia's only reasonable goal: the stabilization of Ukraine and its economic independence in a neutral political and military status.
Author:
Originator:
http://shumilov1989.livejournal.com/1220.html
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  1. Mikhail m
    Mikhail m 23 May 2014 06: 51
    +15
    Creation of power structures and organization of recruitment for service is one of the priority tasks. The militia will not stand against the army, even as disorganized as the Ukrainian.
    The entry of new subsidized territories into the Russian Federation in the near future looks doubtful

    Subsidized? Is it not at the expense of these regions that Kiev and the west of Ukraine lived?
    1. Predator
      Predator 23 May 2014 07: 03
      +5
      Then the author went too far — this is one of the most powerful industrial areas and not only in Ukraine, if everything is established and restored, communications will easily be self-sufficient!
      1. dmitriygorshkov
        dmitriygorshkov 23 May 2014 09: 25
        +9
        Quote: Predator
        , if everything is established, to restore ties, it will be easy to be self-sufficient!

        How long will this "if" last?
        And in general, these "economic" questions have already gotten to her God! When they break the last piece of bread for two with a friend, they don't ask stupid questions!
        So the question here is not the economy, but the fact that the population of the republics was frozen in expectation, and besides a handful of heroes for whom nothing is sorry, the rest cause surprise and misunderstanding. What do they actually want? Is it worth breaking this last piece with them? Not in the sense that it’s a pity, but in the sense they will appreciate it, or they will say, why so little? Come on again! When we were going to be friends with you, we counted on more!
        1. jktu66
          jktu66 23 May 2014 14: 30
          0
          How long will this "if" last?
          The road will be overpowered by a walker. The main thing is that the republics appeared, are organized, gain experience, defend themselves, there are prospects for development and expansion smile and the article is dank and messy, in my opinion
    2. Sunjar
      Sunjar 23 May 2014 07: 04
      +2
      To return these territories to themselves at the expense of debts for gas. There, of course, it will be necessary to have more money, but you can add, or you can wind up interest on them and all the same, the DPR and LPR will be attached to Russia.
    3. Lord of the Sith
      Lord of the Sith 23 May 2014 07: 20
      +13
      In 2013, the Donetsk region gave to the budget 12 billion .408 million dollars. And the budget allocated to the Donetsk region 4 billion 053 million dollars. What kind of subsidies is the author talking about?

      To enlarge, right-click on the picture and "Open"
      1. maks-101
        maks-101 23 May 2014 07: 27
        +1
        And the budget allocated 4 billion 053 million dollars to the Donetsk region, this allocated money is a subsidy, they didn’t explain the principle of the proverb, you take strangers, but you give yours what came to Kiev is all of them, but the fact that they gave them subsidies.
      2. Last paladin
        Last paladin 23 May 2014 10: 34
        +2
        The author is right about the subsidization of Donetsk and Lugansk as part of the Russian Federation. I will explain:

        - Do not forget about the huge difference in the economies and budgets of Russia and Ukraine.
        The Ukrainian government didn’t give more money to Donetsk and Lugansk not because of lack of need,
        but simply because of the lack of money.

        - The level of pensions in Ukraine is at least 2–3 times lower than in the Russian Federation (I know not from the media, but by communicating with people)

        - The historical structure is based on coal and metallurgy as the basis for the production structure of Donetsk and Lugansk.
        As I understand it, the condition of the mines is deplorable, and at the same time we have our own developed and on average modernized Kuzbass. As for metallurgy, as far as I know, the world metal market has been periodically moping recently and our plants are in losses and debts ...

        - Parallels with the quick annexation of Crimea are not appropriate, since the strategic (political, military, economic) importance of Crimea is much greater.
      3. andj61
        andj61 23 May 2014 13: 56
        +1
        In the table, the data are not for transfers to the budget, but for export-import. Svyaz here, of course, is available but not direct. It is possible not to export products at all, but to produce and sell a lot inside the country.
    4. andj61
      andj61 23 May 2014 13: 52
      +1
      The territories are REALLY non-subsidized. But many enterprises are registered either in Kiev - and pay taxes there, or even in offshore companies. True, there are two but:
      1. The metallurgical industry is a real competitor to the Russian one. The real consumer is only foreign.
      2. Coal industry, mines - are practically not needed, the extraction of Kuzbass coal is cheaper even taking into account transportation.
      For cooperation with Russian industry, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkov, Zaporozhye are much more important.
      1. Shaki's memory
        Shaki's memory 23 May 2014 14: 31
        +2
        I wonder if the subsidized region is important or not, in the event that OUR BEATS? If they do not beat, then this is purely business and really need to look profitable or not, but if they beat, then it is not up to the benefit, here people are our own ... we need to help ..

        When a neighbor’s house is on fire and you help to extinguish it, or you will shelter a burner, do you think about the benefits? And if they don’t beat anyone ... then you don’t need to be a hypocrite, but just to tell us it’s profitable and business is business ...
        1. dmitriygorshkov
          dmitriygorshkov 23 May 2014 20: 29
          0
          Quote: Shaka's Memory
          , in the event that "OUR BEATS"?

          Totally agree with you!
          Or we save ours.
          Or are we looking for a benefit!
          One of course does not cancel the second, but there is no need to mix priorities!
      2. Last paladin
        Last paladin 23 May 2014 15: 08
        0
        And I wrote about the same a little lower
  2. Denis
    Denis 23 May 2014 07: 03
    +3
    So, the co-chair of the DPR government, Denis Pushilin, in an interview with Russia 24 said: “We believe that we need to go together

    In the meantime, only
    The current format within the two independent republics is an interim result. The consolidation of efforts, primarily in the field of external security, will more and more inexorably bring the republics closer to at least a formally confederate organization, with unified armed forces. However, this stage may not be necessary if the parties agree to merge into one state
    It’s necessary to fight back, and not to find out about the power
    The division of the still not taken power ruined many affairs
  3. gandalf
    gandalf 23 May 2014 07: 06
    +2
    If they were retained as part of Ukraine, they would influence the situation from within, and could, through asserting their rights, with the support of Russia, lead Ukraine to federalism, which would be an undoubted blessing, both for the citizens of this country and for all neighbors.

    Right. That’s just the way it is. Like in a war - seizing a bridgehead, accumulating forces, striking forward, etc.
  4. APASUS
    APASUS 23 May 2014 07: 17
    +5
    The author somehow lowered the economy of the DPR and LPR below the waterline, although previous articles indicated that only Lugansk last year brought Ukraine 30% of foreign exchange earnings.
    I think the regions themselves will be able to feed themselves if they are helped with maintaining the standard of living at first and modernizing production.
    1. andj61
      andj61 23 May 2014 14: 04
      +1
      Quote: APASUS
      The author somehow lowered the economy of the DPR and LPR below the waterline, although previous articles indicated that only Lugansk last year brought Ukraine 30% of foreign exchange earnings.


      You can not take only foreign exchange earnings. Example: An enterprise from St. Petersburg acquires diamonds in Yakutia, gold in the Magadan Region, makes jewelry in Smolensk, and exports through St. Petersburg customs. Currency earnings come to St. Petersburg. But what was the reason for the receipt of revenue? The answer is - well, not really Peter!
      And of course, I agree with the fact that these republics can feed themselves.
  5. alexdol
    alexdol 23 May 2014 07: 22
    +15
    "If they were retained as part of Ukraine, they would influence the situation from the inside, and could, through defending their rights, with the support of Russia, lead Ukraine to federalism, which would be an undoubted benefit, both for the citizens of this country and for all neighbors. Federalization would contribute to national reconciliation, and in case of its failure - national delimitation, within the legal framework, with the subsequent peaceful division of Ukraine. "

    What kind of preservation in the "ukraine" we are talking about, may be enough already such chatter! After May 2 and the events in Odessa, this artificial formation "Ukraine" - and DIED FOREVER! It's just that today there can be no talk of ANY RECONCILIATION! JUNTA must be DESTROYED, by the way and in the interests of Russia! We often hear such conversations: yes, Putin does not need us ...
    Such people would like to ask a question: what does Putin have to do with it? Putin comes and goes, and RUSSIA IS ETERNAL!
    The task of anyone who became the head of Russia, first of all, is to collect land into one STATE! And the current "Ukraine" is a part of Russia! Maybe it will be enough to carry on endless conversations about BENEFITS, that's how everyone's brains WASHED, only they are looking for benefits everywhere. And enough of looking back at what the WEST will say, it should already be clear to everyone that there are our ENEMIES, and not "partners" ...
    1. Dimy4
      Dimy4 23 May 2014 12: 07
      +3
      I already wrote somewhere, but I repeat that a federation in Ukraine is ALREADY impossible, the time for its creation has been missed. Adequate and independent politicians representing the so-called western Ukraine is not. Those people who now occupied Kiev are absolutely not interested in this, and on their hands is the blood of burned Odessans.
  6. Panzerjager
    Panzerjager 23 May 2014 07: 25
    +3
    Guys, the regions are really "subsidized" - how much has already been destroyed there? Infrastructure, housing, supplies ... everything needs to be restored, the industrial base, if it remains working, will cover only part of the losses. Moreover, there will be a lot of problems with the "owners" of these industrial facilities ... the magistrates' courts, you know, are against Russia in advance, so, probably, any lawsuit concerning the "illegal seizure of enterprises" from these "honest, noble businessmen" will be satisfied ... This means investing, investing, investing money in the regions ... and even with the people themselves, nothing is clear - if the DPR, why work as before on Akhmetov, why are there a handful of militias? If they don’t need the DPR, then why would they even start a "Novorossiya" ... here it is very easy for Russia to get bogged down, so personally I only welcome the cautious, win-win policy of Vladimir Vladimirovich. Everything is not so obvious and clear as it was in Crimea.
  7. Yun Klob
    Yun Klob 23 May 2014 07: 28
    +2
    Dumb banderlogs (from Bandera and the den) could themselves offer to exchange the rebel areas, obviously already lost for Kiev, for gas. But they didn’t get out of their minds, and Obama will do that.
  8. DPN
    DPN 23 May 2014 07: 31
    0
    It was high time for the militia to read KAVPOK books and books about him and join forces. In fact, there is just a talking room. Adult men and their families flee to Russia and surrender their territory (HOMELAND) to the National Guard. Militias are being fired and at the same time, trains with military equipment freely go to suppress the SOUTH - EAST. One-way game is in progress.
    1. 11111mail.ru
      11111mail.ru 23 May 2014 08: 05
      +5
      Quote: DPN
      read books KAVPOKA

      What is the last name? There is no such author. If the letters are mixed up in places (A and O), then read:
      Kovpak Sidor Artemievich (1887-1967), commander of a partisan formation. in World War II, Hero of the Soviet Union (1942, 1944).
  9. Cormorants
    Cormorants 23 May 2014 07: 31
    +1
    The option is this. DNR and LNR, after some time, we take into the structure of Russia, maybe other regions will catch up, all that remains of Ukraine, change the regime and join ourselves as Ukraine.
    We need stability in Ukraine, respectively, integrity, on the other hand, our original Russian lands are asking us to refuse, it makes no sense. Definitely in this party, GDP has one way, either all or nothing.
  10. sv68
    sv68 23 May 2014 07: 34
    +6
    Shuvalov, you are just slowly merging these republics in your article, and they have a place in the Russian federation.moy minus the article as a protest for the silence of the authorities.We will ask the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as part of the Russian Federation, the West will consider us weak, and wait for the Maidans with us. if they said, we don’t abandon our own, then where is the proof of these words? To begin with, "humanitarian" assistance is only possible with weapons and professionals. Further, completely open borders for volunteers. and ignore any speech of any country on intervention in the ukroinsky crisis, we help our brothers. that's about how
    1. Panzerjager
      Panzerjager 23 May 2014 07: 41
      0
      And what about the brothers sitting on the priest evenly and not moving? Shooters almost single-handedly fighting with the punishers, and where are the other inhabitants of the Donetsk region? Are there few of them? Are there weapons missing? Nonsense. They just do not need anything - that’s the impression.
      1. Lunic
        Lunic 23 May 2014 08: 52
        +1
        weapons by the way are not enough .. both Strelkov and Babai talked about this. The most important thing is not enough specialists.
  11. pensioner
    pensioner 23 May 2014 07: 36
    +3
    The entry of new subsidized territories into the Russian Federation
    Subsidized belay Why did the bathhouse suddenly fall ?? Akhmetov somehow became so rich thanks to subsidies from Kiev ...
  12. mig31
    mig31 23 May 2014 08: 22
    0
    It is time for the DPR and LPR to have representatives in the international community ....
    1. Ptah
      Ptah 23 May 2014 09: 05
      0
      A couple of days ago, one of the TV channels sounded replicas.
      "Russia is preparing steps to move in this direction." But this requires the will and activity of these republics.
      On the example of Ossetia and Abkhazia. But this is precisely what is not observed. There is almost no one of the current "formed" leaders who would somehow show ACTIVITY AT THE "EXTERNAL LEVEL" ...
  13. jovanni
    jovanni 23 May 2014 08: 27
    +1
    For us, of course, they will become subsidized for the first time (They will pile up their own coal! And where to put it, if ukry cut off supplies to Europe ... Again, the reorganization of the entire financial and administrative structure. Yes, there are a lot of problems ...) But this means that we should not now, by all possible means and means, help our real brothers!
    1. Panzerjager
      Panzerjager 23 May 2014 08: 42
      0
      The problem is still the same that Strelkov mentions: there is no mass enthusiasm among the ranks of the DPR citizens. There is a lasting impression that they just do not care who wins and under whose hand they will live. Well, Russia will include the DPR and LPR in its composition, guarantee their safety with the power of its military machine ... and then how? Does it not turn out that in all their troubles these apolitical, indifferent people will blame the Russians? If they do not care - why should Russia take risks for them? But Strelkova and his people, I think, Russia will always be glad to host. It is a pity that there are so few of them.
  14. The comment was deleted.
  15. Nikolaevich I
    Nikolaevich I 23 May 2014 09: 02
    +1
    Information for rassmusleniya.Kto will try to refute? The following fact is surprising: the "hero" of the story was taken out by the siloviki as soon as he appeared in the oblast. Question: where did he get such "intimate" details about the leadership of the DPR and LPR?
  16. Nikolaevich I
    Nikolaevich I 23 May 2014 09: 13
    +1
    Information for reflection:
  17. Ustas
    Ustas 23 May 2014 09: 26
    0
    If they were retained as part of Ukraine, they would influence the situation from within, and could, through asserting their rights, with the support of Russia, lead Ukraine to federalism, which would be an undoubted blessing, both for the citizens of this country and for all neighbors.

    Again we are trying to sew a patchwork quilt, Ukraine.
    The entry of new subsidized territories into the Russian Federation in the near future seems doubtful

    Subsidized, this is from the point of view of the current economic bloc in the government of the Russian Federation, whose activity is reduced to servicing the dollar and they begin to move only after a kick from Putin.
  18. Giant thought
    Giant thought 23 May 2014 09: 42
    +3
    The strategy consists in joining this region to Russia, to the historical Motherland. With developed industry, the region will never be subsidized, here the author of the article went too far.
  19. marder4
    marder4 23 May 2014 10: 29
    +2
    I agree with many of the above - the author blurted out something about the "subsidized" regions ...
  20. Last paladin
    Last paladin 23 May 2014 10: 37
    0
    From the economic, political and strategic points of view, the declination of Kharkov and Zaporozhye in their direction would be positive for the republics. I’m not talking about Dneprovetrovsk and Odessa, since at the moment this is rather unlikely
  21. dkflbvbh
    dkflbvbh 23 May 2014 10: 40
    +2
    Mikhail m wrote:
    "Subsidized? Was it not at the expense of these regions that Kiev and the west of Ukraine lived?"

    The article is of course a continuous propaganda leaflet (put a minus), but the author is somewhat right. This is about subsidies, if you join the Donbass, then the question immediately arises of where to put the miners? Because mines as early as 70-80 under the Soviet regime were already unprofitable. When they were in the Sotava of Ukraine, with the meager natural resources of Ukraine, the Donetsk coal was in demand, but in Russia it will not be needed. The black metallurgy from which they only pumped money without investing in it without investing, we have enough of such enterprises ourselves. So it turns out that Ukraine is good in Russia will have to close, but where to put the people? So much for the subsidies. Crimea is not enough?

    Now about the article and the author's knowledge in geography ... The deuce, before sprinkling something, even if he discovered a geographical atlas. He strongly advises: "At the same time, close attention should be paid to such key points as Mariupol, from where, hypothetically, the sea could receive direct assistance from Crimea" ... Fuck this Zhdanov (Mariupol) with its Crimean sea troubles, if Donetsk the region has a full-fledged land border by land with the Rostov region, which is much cheaper than by sea, especially from the Crimea (to which you have to call for help) - sheer illiteracy. Now about the fact that Slavyansk / Kramatorsk / Krasnoarmeysk - which are auto and railway "gates to Donetsk" - well, it was under the king of peas and the Soviet regime. Nowadays there are railroad cars (through Slavyansk) sometimes there are freight trains, but through Kramatorsk (which is part of the Slavyansk region and it is not correct to single it out in this aspect), I remember only electric trains went. And if Slavyansk is located on the all-Union highway (former) Kharkov-Rostov, then the roads of republican and regional significance only approach Kramatorsk and it seems to be in the rear of Slavyansk. And even then, in order to open these gates to Donbass from the Russian side, the Kharkov region must be gouged. And Krasnoarmeisk in general in the west of the region from the side of Dnepropetrovsk, there is no question of Russia at all. Unless to attack Dnepropetrovsk, as the author advises. Do we need it (with the hepothetical connection of Donbass to Russia)?
  22. Igor Gor
    Igor Gor 23 May 2014 11: 23
    0
    The author is good at arranging provocations, where people shed blood for their freedom ... and the best people seem to be internally better and cleaner than you ... (((
  23. Not angry
    Not angry 23 May 2014 14: 17
    0
    It is too early to draw conclusions now because we do not have information about what is happening. So far, one thing is clear that the process is going on: armies are being created in the republics; there may be parts of the power vertical that may not be coordinated and incomplete. But they exist and work. We must not forget that they build them from scratch and without preparation. All takes time. And most importantly, they do not speak, but work and, as far as possible, report on what has been done. And they have a lot of problems, and they seemed to be solved yesterday.
    Do not teach them how to live; it is better to help them.
    Who can physically or humanitarianly.
  24. Roman 1977
    Roman 1977 23 May 2014 14: 54
    +1
    UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called on all parties to "redouble their efforts" ahead of the presidential elections in Ukraine ...
  25. Tartarian
    Tartarian 23 May 2014 16: 28
    +2
    Yes, and it is interesting to whom is this entire article written? For our Brothers in New Russia? -And then a flock of morons gathered there and they don’t even catch up with them? For us - the next discovery of America, and an explanation of the obvious ....
  26. v0802r
    v0802r 23 May 2014 18: 19
    +2
    Both Donetsk and Lugansk immediately after the referendum needed to declare a general mobilization, and not to divide the portfolios.