There is no more hope for the sanity of the Kiev junta. There is still hope for our American and European partners in the liquidation commission - that they will be able to put on a straitjacket on their puppets, and they will be able to work out some kind of asset dividing scheme that is not associated with more bloodshed. But even that is questionable - for example, if the Americans deliberately want to create a belt of instability on the border of Russia and Europe ...
Against the background of the attempts of the Ukrainian security forces to arrange a bloody sweep of the South-East, four-sided Russia-Ukraine-US-EU negotiations took place in Geneva. The result was the following agreements:
* Disarmament of illegal armed groups.
* The release of captured administrative buildings.
* Release of all political prisoners.
* Giving the Russian language the proper status that suits the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine.
* Constitutional reform and the development of a constitution that can arrange both the South-East and the North-West of Ukraine.
In addition, it was about preventing Ukraine from joining the EU and NATO and guarantees of its non-aligned status.
These agreements were grossly violated by the junta just a couple of days after the signing ...
And to understand what happened, it is important to consider what Ukraine and Ukrainian nationalism as a whole are.
It is impossible to talk about Ukraine as an already established state. So this is a project. And here we are surprised to find that this project arose in the middle of the XIX century, not at all in Ukraine, but ... in Austria-Hungary! It was in Vienna that it was first stated that the Ukrainians are a kind of a separate nation that has nothing in common with the Russian, and this nation should get its statehood. At that time, Galicia was part of Austria-Hungary, and the proposed territory of the Ukrainian state extended to Kiev.
We note that Kharkov, Donbass, or the Crimea didn’t have enough audacity for the Austro-Hungarian authors of the Ukraine project - this appeared later.
That is, Austria-Hungary was ready to formally sacrifice Galicia in order to tear off a large chunk of the Russian empire and in fact establish control over the entire territory through economic and military penetration. In World War I, this resulted in the formation of the “Sichovykh Streltsy” legion (brigade) of Galicia residents, who became famous for punitive operations and participation in the creation of the Terezin and Talerhof concentration camps, where guards from Galician nationalists destroyed the pro-Russian troops controlled by Austro-Hungarian troops. These were the first in the world stories death camps designed specifically for the mass destruction of prisoners - the experience of these camps was useful to Nazi Germany in creating Auschwitz, Buchenwald, etc.
The Bolsheviks came to power largely due to the union with the nationalists of the outlying territories. A strange period began when the Bolsheviks, who had saved the Russian empire from final disintegration, in every way were fawned upon by those who were striving for this disintegration. How were the borders of the Ukrainian SSR formed? Vladimir Vinnichenko, the first chairman of the Ukrainian Directory, even before Petliura, emigrated to Europe, and then returned, ready to cooperate with the Bolsheviks. And so, he began to demand that Lenin include the Donbass and the Krasnodar Territory in the USSR. Lenin rejected the demand of the Krasnodar Territory, but he made concessions in the Donbas and included him in the Ukrainian SSR. (Again, we note that even Vynnychenko did not have the audacity to demand the Crimea - this happened later). Kiev before the arrival of the Bolsheviks was a completely Russian-speaking city. The Bolsheviks began to Ukrainize it forcibly. Mikhail Bulgakov, in his story about Kiev in 1924, cites four variants of the Ukrainian word “Hairdresser”, which he saw on the new signs: “Tzirulnya”, “Golyarnya”, “Perukarnya” and “Hairdresser”. That is, even the Ukrainizers themselves did not know how to spell this word in Ukrainian. Yes, the Bolsheviks established the boundaries of the Ukrainian SSR as purely administrative, and even in a nightmare they could not have thought that the Ukrainian SSR would ever be separated. But it was they who laid this time bomb - the modern borders of Ukraine, whose population was within the reach of Ukrainian nationalists with the slightest weakening of the central government.
In World War II, the Germans, according to the Ost master plan, wanted to keep alive only 50 million Russians and Ukrainians as slaves. But there were people in Galicia who were so encouraged by the guaranteed inclusion of these 50 million survivors that they worked as the most merciless punishers, whose cruelty far left the Eisatz Group of the SS. Someone was offered a moral incentive: they are not even a Wehrmacht, they are the military elite of the Third Reich, they are SS troops! True, on the march the Germans were allowed to lodge only in a stable, but this did not interfere with inspiration. They are the SS troops! So the SS Galicia division was created, formally located on the same level as the real SS divisions of the Dead Head or Reich type, but spent the night in cowsheds. In 1944, under Brody, she was thrown under the Soviet Tankswhere she ingloriously and died to give true Aryans time to flee away. Her heirs fought for several years with the USSR, even after the end of World War II. But note that the recruitment to the SS division "Galicia" and the rebel movement against the USSR were only in the western regions of Ukraine. In the center and in the east there was a strong partisan movement against the Germans, and with the advent of the Red Army, these regions became completely loyal to the Soviet regime.
Then in 1954, Khrushchev presented Ukraine with Crimea. Everything is clear here. Even in the West, sane people understand everything. Against the background of hysterics in the American and European media over the reunification of the Crimea with Russia, the voice of one of the leading French publications Le Figaro stands out, which supported the reunification.
Le Figaro asks the question: "Why should the arbitrariness of the communist dictator Khrushchev be a law for Russia and Ukraine, even after the overthrow of the communists? ..".
Finally, the Ukraine project in 1991 was adopted by the corrupt Kiev nomenklatura, which did not want to share the proceeds of corruption with Moscow. Ukrainian kleptocracy (the power of thieves - the ancient Greek.) Needed a people suitable for a separate existence from Russia. Under Kravchuk, and even more so under Kuchma, who himself came to power on the voices of Eastern Ukraine, the entire humanitarian sphere in the country was given to the people of Galicia, who began to implant the most delusional Galician myths as a national ideology, history and culture. Over the 22 of the year, they have largely succeeded in this: the people of Kiev and other residents of Central Ukraine were brainwashed. About half of the population of Ukraine already now thinks of various kinds of Russophobic cliches and treats Russia quite hostilely.
Thus, it is possible to find something in common in the “Ukraine” project throughout all one and a half centuries of its existence. This is an aggression against the triune Russian nation (Russians, Ukrainians and Belorussians), when the Galician minority, with the help of violence and brainwashing, seeks to divide Russians and Ukrainians and create a new state within the borders of Ukraine, the whole meaning of which boils down to enmity with Russia. The goal is the destruction of the Russian statehood, since Ukraine is not a colony for Russia, but an integral part of the metropolis. As you know, even Brzezinski clearly stated: Russia can be an empire only with Ukraine, and without it it cannot. A separate state of Ukraine can not exist otherwise than as an anti-Russia.
Separately, you need to consider what the Galician minority is. The situation is such that it is time to get out of the “stall” of political correctness and call things by their proper names.
There is something deeply irrational in the national mentality of some Slavic peoples. Consider yourself to be the chain dogs of western civilization. To be proud of this, in general, rather humiliating role. Seeing the meaning of your life is to hate and tear your close relatives - first of all, Russians and Serbs.
Three such people: Poles, Croats and Western Ukrainians. Some may say that the Catholic Church simply worked well with them. But the Czechs and Slovaks are also Catholics, but they have nothing of the kind. So you can not reduce everything only to the religious factor.
And this is something that is irrational. From their beloved Western civilization, they saw nothing but slavery and oppression, and the related peoples hated by them were much more loyal to them. For example, Poland at different times was conquered both by Russia and by representatives of Western civilization. And it is possible to compare the orders, and simply the presence or absence of genocide, in the Polish Governor-General of the Russian Empire, the Polish People's Republic of the USSR and the Warsaw General Governorship of Hitler. It would seem, one can immediately see who was more loyal to the Poles. But they hate Russia with the Grand Duke Constantine, and love Western civilization with Auschwitz. The same goes for Ukrainian nationalism. In Poland and Austria-Hungary, Ukrainians were slaves and cattle, subjected to strong oppression on the basis of nationality and religion.
In the Russian Empire and the USSR, they were subjects who were completely equal with the Russians, and with great career opportunities — the Petersburg aristocracy and the Moscow nomenklatura were overflowing with Ukrainians.
Of the seven Soviet general secretaries there were three Russians, one Georgian, and the other three - who? Khrushchev, Brezhnev and Chernenko ... That is, we are witnessing a completely irrational love for those who brought more evil, and hatred for those who came with good. Perhaps it is something like the Stockholm syndrome, when victims of terrorists begin to identify themselves with terrorists.
Thus, Ukrainian nationalism is not an entirely correct definition. This is not entirely nationalism, and it cannot be called Ukrainian in the full sense of the word. Rather, it is something like tribalism in African countries. The “Ukraine” project is a criminal misanthropic project, the subject of which is a deliberate minority - only the Galician tribe. The rest of the Ukrainians are considered as an object and biological resource. The population of Central Ukraine should be replaced by national self-identity through brainwashing in schools and the media. And the population of South-Eastern Ukraine, which is harder to brainwash, must be suppressed by total armed violence and deprived of civil rights. For example, with the help of the institute of non-citizens, as in Latvia and Estonia. Thus, the most accurate name for the current that has seized power in Kiev is not Ukrainian nationalism, but Galician tribalism.
But we will have to admit that in the brainwashing of the residents of central Ukraine, this project has achieved great success - after all, on the Maidan there were not only visitors from Western Ukraine, but Kievans as well.
But on the violent suppression of the South-East, this criminal project stalled badly. Here he was confronted with the true national identity of Ukrainians, as part of the triune Russian nation. And not only among the local population, but also among the security forces.
Yes, they, too, were to some extent processed by school education and the media. In everyday life, you can live propaganda clichés, but in such difficult and terrible moments as the receipt of an order to shoot people, something real rises from the depths of consciousness. Militiamen and soldiers remembered who they really were, after which they went over to the side of the people or at least retreated, giving the people armored vehicles. In force, the Kiev junta fell down — it turned out that no one wanted to fight for it.
There is a Kiev regime and other fault lines, which we will talk about later. It is important that in February, with the overthrow of Yanukovich, the Ukraine project invented by 150 years ago in Austria-Hungary achieved the greatest success in all 150 years. This success caused the greatest enthusiasm of all external and internal opponents of Russia, and the Russian patriots led to considerable confusion. And now there is already a feeling in the air that the Ukraine project is collapsing just a couple of months after its triumph. We will not consider patriotic media and Internet resources - let's look at the reaction of the pro-Western “fifth column” in Russia, which this project strongly supported.
For example, political scientist Stanislav Belkovsky, so in love with the Kiev junta that in an interview with Euroradio called on the Americans to launch a nuclear strike on the Russian the fleet (!!!).
A week ago, Belkovsky said that between Russia and Ukraine will soon be chosen, as between North and South Korea. Russia, in his opinion, of course, will be North. Now he doesn’t say anything like that and doesn’t threaten Russia with an American nuclear strike, and in the last interview on Echo of Moscow he cried that everything was gone, and Russia would take more 6 regions from Ukraine.
Even better - Julia Latynina, who among her companions has always stood out with intelligence and quick response. Again, a week ago, she admired the beautiful “Ukrainian revolution” and sang the praises of the genius minister of internal affairs of the junta Avakov, who would build the whole of Ukraine on a standing “quietly”. Now it does not sing. A couple of days ago, she simply brushed off the ashes of her former friends, who were unlucky:
Well, actually, back to the South-East. What happened? From my point of view, this week the war of Russia against Ukraine was won, and it even ended in capitulation in Geneva. Moreover, it was won with such a devastating score and with such a complete lack of talent of the Ukrainian authorities, that any sympathy for the dismembered country, frankly, disappears. (!!! - К.J.) Because if a country disintegrates from the whipping of fingers (I will give examples of countries that defended themselves from a much more sophisticated enemy in a much more complicated situation) ... Well, excuse me, as they said Stalin and Hitler, dividing Poland? "Versailles Chimera"? ...
... Now you can return to the negotiations in Geneva.
First of all, the delegation from the Kiev junta participated in the negotiations, but not from the Southeast. Is this a diplomatic defeat for Russia? In no case. This aikido is a sport that, incidentally, was practiced by Putin in his youth. Use the energy of throwing the opponent against him. The United States and the European Union insisted on the non-participation of representatives of the South-East in the negotiations, Russia yielded ... well, what now? The junta has signed an agreement on the disarmament of illegal armed groups, but the South-East has not. That is, this junta is now obliged to disarm the Right Sector, hastily created national guards and other punitive formations created after 22 in February, while Southeast has complete freedom of action. Now Putin can reply to any complaints about Russia that there is no Russian regular army in the Southeast, but he does not control the self-defense forces of Donbass, and they did not participate in the negotiations. Another thing is that the junta cannot disarm the Right Sector, and refuses to disarm the national guard. So this is the first step to recognizing the junta as completely incapable and to its final delegitimization.
And then the fun began. The junta’s delegation was simply expelled from the negotiating hall, and Russia, the United States and the European Union began to decide the fate of Ukraine without its participation. Actually, it was already a complete delegitimization of the Kiev coup. They are no longer considered a party to the negotiations. A kind of solution will be worked out, a compromise between Russia and the West. For example, the federalization of Ukraine with the transfer of 6-7 subjects of the Federation from Lugansk to Odessa in the sphere of influence of Russia and the preservation of US and EU control over the rest of the territory. Point. And then this decision will be dictated to the putschists, not at all wondering if it suits them. This is the LIQUIDATION COMMISSION. The criminal misanthropic project "Ukraine" was declared insolvent, and it is closed. They divide assets and appoint external management.
For a better understanding of the position of Russia, the question is important - in what legal form will the division of assets and external management be carried out? Both Latynina and Belkovsky speak about the direct rejection of several Ukrainian regions and their inclusion in Russia. And this is not quite true. Russia speaks about the federalization of Ukraine with the formal legal preservation of a single state.
A full division of Ukraine into two states or the direct inclusion of the South-East into the Russian Federation would be just the chance to save the project “Ukraine” in a territorially reduced form.
Residents of North-Western Ukraine would remain victims of Galician tribalism seriously and for a long time, the North-Western state would quickly join NATO, American tactical missiles aimed at Moscow would appear near Chernigov and Sumy, etc. Therefore, Russia is seeking federalization with guarantees of neutrality and non-aligned status of Ukraine as a whole. It is clear that the subjects of the federation will be able to build economic relations with their neighbors at their discretion, but the external administration of the US and the EU over the north-western half of Ukraine is permissible only in the economic field, and not in the military. In exchange, Russia is ready to abandon the inclusion of the South-East into the Russian Federation. Southeast should become an anchor, which will keep the rest of Ukraine from joining NATO and complete absorption by the West.
And not only because Russia does not need American missiles in Chernigov. Unlike Western politicians, whose planning horizon extends only until the next elections, the Russian leadership thinks more distantly. The time will come when Russia will become stronger and will be able to reconsider some of today's agreements with the West. When the economic collapse is by no means a sweet life under the rule of the “Right Sector”, even Central Ukraine will be forced to wake up and recall its true national identity. And then the fraternal peoples will be reunited again. Russia does not leave half of the Ukrainian people at the mercy of the tribalists and the West - in today's agreements, it creates mechanisms for their revision in the future. That is why Russia makes the requirement of federalization.
And it will take not so much time.
The economic collapse of North-Western Ukraine is already emerging. The junta needs 35 billion dollars to save the economy, and all that the West is ready to allocate is 1 billion.
At the same time, in the South-East, the restoration of industrial cooperation with Russia should create a magnificent economic boom - there is enough Russian military orders for the Ukrainian military-industrial complex for the initial spurt.
Perhaps Belkovsky was right when he said that they would choose between the Russian and Western spheres of influence, as between North and South Korea. He only confused where North Korea would be, and where South would be.
And what is even more interesting is the feverish activity of the junta representatives on the formation of punitive troops against the Southeast. In just a few days, it was announced about the formation of about a dozen new power structures - the National Guard, punitive battalions like Vostok and Donetsk-1, detachments from local junta supporters in the Southeast, troops who form Timoshenko and Kolomoysky etc. This greatest diversity of untrained and newly formed troops without a single command, from a military point of view, can only cause laughter. The effectiveness of this army has already been demonstrated in practice. According to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the troops attacking the Southeast 24 of April numbered 11 thousand people with 160 tanks, 230 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, artillery and combat helicopters. They were opposed by no more than 2 of thousands of Donbass self-defense fighters, who had only a couple of hundred machine guns, and the rest had smooth-bore guns. However, the attack was repulsed, and the junta troops failed to break through to the center of Slavyansk.
And it makes you wonder - are these formations only against the Donbass? We see a clear trend: every more or less significant figure who wants to remain in Ukrainian politics and economics after the elections of 25 in May (if they take place at all) acquires personal troops, which will be subordinate only to her, using money and administrative resources. They may be badly trained, but the rivals have no better troops ... That is, the leaders of the junta may have already come to terms with the impossibility of establishing control over the Donbas - they form these troops against each other. These are the other fault lines that we talked about a little higher. The likelihood of a scenario in which the struggle for power among the putschists themselves turns into a wild insane war of all against all is very high, and Kiev will look like Beirut-1983 or Sarajevo-1995. In any case, the preparation of the leaders of the junta for this scenario is already under way.
Incidentally, this is the fundamental weakness of the Ukraine project: it is capable of brainwashing and seizing power, but it has almost zero capacity for state-building.
For whatever he took - it turns out Beirut during the civil war. This we have already seen 100 years ago with all sorts of Skoropadsky, Petlyur and Embroidered. So disappointment in this project may arise from Kiev and other residents of Central Ukraine pretty soon. Life in Beirut-1983 is very conducive to getting rid of any illusions.