The war in Libya, the first step to a global armed conflict
Nenner, who previously worked at Goldman Sachs, one of the greatest banks in the world, now heads a personal research center. The main specialization of the center is the prediction of market trends with the involvement of modern computer programs. The greatest recognition in the financial world, Charles Nenner achieved thanks to the correct prediction of the collapse of the stock and housing market, made two years before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Bank in New York, which, in fact, was the starting point for the further development of the global financial crisis in 2008 year.
Given the current situation, the analyst advises his numerous clients to sell the shares they have in their hands and leave the financial securities market. According to his forecast, a large-scale war will begin at the moment when the Dow Jones index rises above 13.000 points. Edward Luttwak, an American political analyst who recently visited Moscow, said: “Big politics is coming back. But now her main characters are not Russia and the United States, but China and the United States. With the development of the conflict between the US and China, it will be important for both sides to acquire as many allies as possible. Since the fall of the USSR, there has been some lull in international politics in the world. Given the rapid economic growth rates of both China and extreme dissatisfaction with this fact in the USA, it is safe to say that the world is on the verge of new and significant changes. For most people in North America and Europe who are accustomed to a peaceful life, it is possible that these predictions will seem to be an excessive accumulation of colors. Despite this, there are a number of obvious factors that make the new military line in modern stories humanity is quite likely, including the financial situation of the United States. "
It's no secret that the US government debt reached its maximum in the entire history of the country and amounts to 14,3 trillion. dollars. In terms of population, it turns out that every American literally owes about 46.000 dollars. As a comparison, we can recall that on the eve of the global economic crisis 18 September 2008, the debt amounted to 9,7 trillion. dollars, based on this, the US government took 4,2 trillion. dollars. In 2010, the US Congress set the allowable amount of debt - 14,29 trillion. Timothy Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary, has been asking for a speedy increase in this threshold for several months and is warning that otherwise the state’s economy will have disastrous consequences. "Never before in the history of the state did the US Congress refuse to raise the ceiling on public debt when such an urgent need arose," he addressed the congressmen. “Even a limited or short-term default,” Geithner points out, “will lead to dire disastrous effects on the economic market that will be felt throughout the decade.”
The main reasons for the growth of US public debt are the cost of funds to prevent the fall of the state’s banking system, measures to economically maintain and stimulate social stability, and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and now in Libya. Theoretically, it can be assumed that a situation may arise in the near future when the administration of President Obama announces a moratorium on interest payments on its debt obligations, although until that time the US authorities had not resorted to such a step.
One of the plans to save the US economy is to gradually reduce the official dollar exchange rate, in order to facilitate the maintenance of the 14-trillion-dollar debt that has been created. In this regard, the most prudent foreign investors, without fanfare, are already gradually withdrawing money from dollar positions. It is precisely this that can largely explain the rise in prices for oil, gold and silver. According to some estimates, if in the near future oil prices become higher than 120 dollars per barrel, this will lead to a new stagnation in the US economy. This is also expected by the countries of the European Union. True, oil prices have not yet reached the highest critical point.
In the event of a further exacerbation of the situation in the Middle East and North Africa, the oil market will inevitably be in a fever. Forecasts for the development of the situation in the Arab world are not comforting for world importing countries.
Large-scale popular protests, in the organization of which apparently could not have done without a guiding hand and the help of some special services, have already led to the overthrow of the ruling regimes in Tunisia and earlier in Egypt. In Libya, there is a real civil war, in which the Western coalition actively intervenes, the excesses continue in Bahrain, Syria and Yemen. The fighting in Libya caused the cessation of energy supplies to the countries of the European Union.
Italy, which traditionally focused on Libya in its energy strategy, found itself in the most difficult situation. The Italian oil producing company Eni has been operating in the North African state for 50 for years, producing up to 280 thousand barrels of oil per day, that is, 14 million tons per year. In addition to oil, it was delivered to Italy via the Greenstream gas pipeline laid under water up to 8 billion cubic meters of natural gas.
The European Union's introduction of a moratorium on the import of gas and oil from Libya, in order to deprive the Gaddafi government of 95% of all export earnings, promises new weights for the Italian economy. This is primarily due to the fact that if the problem that arose with gas was quickly resolved by increasing supplies from Russia, then finding oil that is close in quality to Libyan is difficult. Italy remains to hope for an increase in oil production growth in Nigeria or an increase in the supply of Caspian oil.
Many other countries of the European Union will not remain aloof from the problems. Their leaders, encroaching on the entreaties of the French president, risk aggravating the already unstable financial situation of their states and the difficulties of the euro if the operation in Libya drags on. Warren Buffett, one of the most influential financiers in the West, has already predicted significant problems for the eurozone. He does not exclude the possibility of the collapse of the single European currency. In a recent interview on one of the TV channels, Buffett stated bluntly that “despite the fact that huge political efforts will be made to save the euro, nevertheless, the single European currency may suffer a complete collapse.”
It is easy to assume the negative consequences for the economy of the European Union due to the spread of atrocities in the Arab world to Algeria, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, feeding it with liquefied natural gas and oil.
In the case of Libya, it is not so much about controlling its rich oil and gas fields, but also about the huge underground reserves of fresh water. According to geologists, freshwater is no less in the Libyan interior than in Russian Lake Baikal. Giant lake with fresh water is located under the Sahara desert in a place where the borders of Algeria, Libya and Tunisia converge. According to preliminary data, its area is estimated at 1 mln. Sq. M. km, and the amount of water is 60 trillion. cubic meters. The Libyans under the rule of Gaddafi established a practical use of this unique natural source - the so-called “Great artificial river” was built, which supplies the city with fresh water, located in the north of the country. Pipeline length is 4.200 kilometers.
It is not surprising that some foreign analysts call a military operation in Libya the first step towards an armed confrontation between East and West over natural resources. Back in the distant 2001 year, Professor Michael Claire suggested that modern humanity is very close to the border beyond which world war for clean water, food, oil and natural gas awaits him.
Now we are witnessing this drama. The exhaustion of natural resources and a high population growth rate raises the question of the possible and inevitable redistribution of spheres of influence in the world. Economically developed countries are rapidly converting their technological advances into military power, which gives considerable "weight" to the words of their politicians.
It is necessary to recognize that, in terms of the availability of natural resources, the United States feels more confident than the rest of the world, which are located on a separate continent - at a considerable distance from troubled Asia and Africa. Americans today are making focused and significant efforts to gain independence in the energy complex from African and Middle Eastern energy resources. The bulk of the oil the US economy imports today is not from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. More than half of the oil comes from the Western Hemisphere - from Venezuela, Mexico and Canada.
So from the revolutions and wars in the Arab world, provoked by powerful forces behind the scenes of events, it is not the United States that will suffer at all, but the countries of the European Union and the Arabs themselves. A significant increase in the price of oil, according to some experts of the economic market, is even to the benefit of those companies in the United States that have invested heavily in the development of alternative energy sources - they will undoubtedly become profitable when the price of a barrel of oil exceeds 100 dollars. In addition, it can be noted that wars have always been one of the ways to overcome economic difficulties.
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