I think I’m not mistaken if I say that the observed development of events in Crimea took by surprise not only the CIA with their powerful team of analysts of the “Russianists”, but also for our political life the referendum on joining the Crimea to the Russian Federation became a surprise by February 23 and March March 8 at the same time.
Why it all happened that way and not otherwise? What it was, an impromptu under pressure of circumstances or a brilliant mnogohodovka, which will forever enter into history diplomacy? Answers to these questions will be given in serious studies, after giving publicity to what can not be made public now, because the fight has not yet ended.
To obtain reliable information about what was happening, and especially about what will happen, is simply impossible by definition, it remains to try to figure it out. I use only what can be considered known facts.
Immediately, I’ll make a reservation that the proposed view of events is my assessment of what is happening, based on what I saw and heard, said and unsaid by all participants of the process, supplemented by my subjective feelings from the intonations of speakers and the like, quite controversial in terms of objectivity. I really hope that as a result of the discussion of this article, my conjectures can be brought closer to reality, that is, to an understanding of what is happening and to predict possible future plot twists.
21 February in Kiev, a document was signed, which predetermined the fate of Yanukovich as a politician, and the fate of Ukraine as an independent state, Ukraine fell into anarchy of power. It was in the anarchy of power, fortunately for the people of Ukraine, that the total collapse of the life support systems of the population itself has not yet happened. Episodes with Muzychko and similar picture horrors, of course, were, are and will be, but talking about Bandera terror against innocent inhabitants of the inhabitants is an obvious stretch. Evenings on a farm near Dikanka still dispense with armed gangs and shooting.
But the anarchy in power, which took a protracted nature, will precisely generate anarchy in the cities and villages of Ukraine, it is a matter of time.
According to Putin, he in a telephone conversation warned Yanukovych against the withdrawal of the forces of law and order from Kiev. This is by the way, about the accusations against Russia about the destabilization of the situation in Ukraine.
The decision of Yanukovych is known, there was bargaining, he bargained for himself (it was himself, and not his voters) in exchange for power, something completely material, he was naturally thrown. Yanukovych fled to Russia, I think, under the guarantee of Putin and not without conditions from the guarantor, of course.
I do not think that the development of the situation in Kiev could please President Putin at that moment. There was an obvious, well-prepared, well-planned, financially secure and, as many thought, already successful attempt of an American rematch for Syria, Snowden, etc. etc.
There was a serious, strategic defeat for Russia in the battle for Ukraine, amplified many times by the personal defeat of V. V. Putin as a politician.
In Sochi, the Olympics rattled, and in the corridors of the Kremlin there was an ominous silence. In Kiev, the euphoria of victory, London, Washington, Brussels condescendingly laughed.
The theater is over, but the show must go on.
February 23 Olympic closing ceremony. On the podium, smiling tensely, sits President Vladimir V. Putin, the man who became the creator of this holiday, dragged from the idea to the successful implementation of the most complex project that objectively succeeded in all 100%. What did we see then on his face? At the level of intuition, many then noted: Putin is not on the podium, Putin is in Ukraine. Putin looked through the arena with a heavy, merciless look, but there was a smile on the lips of the protocol.
Personally, I have seen this look of Putin only once before. Shortly before his arrest, Khodorkovsky and other oligarchs were at a meeting with Putin in the Kremlin. Mikhail Borisovich was active, polemicized with the president, set the conditions, and sometimes joked. And Putin looked at him, these shots got into the issues News, for some reason I remembered his look, I think that Khodorkovsky also remembered this look.
A thought pierced right away - Klitschko and Yatsenyuk could see their future today in those eyes.
And the second thought is that he, Putin, will make them, I do not know where, how, when, but he will definitely do it. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe in the long, but somehow he will work them out. So the move is yours, President of Russia.
There was a desire even then to throw what was seen on paper, to try to predict the return move, to understand the direction of pressure on these Kiev strategists distraught from the smell of victory. I sketched a couple of sheets of drafts and realized that emotions would not make it possible to objectively evaluate what was happening, it was difficult to write about political benefits and calculations, looking at the crowds of scumbags glorifying Bandera. It’s even harder to keep a cold mind when you realize that this scum has come to power. And by the evening of February 24, the news (and from differently oriented sources) began to form in a directional stream, and this just did not happen, there was no certainty yet, but it seemed that the pieces on the board started moving.
The Empire Strikes Back
There is an opinion, some are even convinced that Yanukovich, Maidan, Klitschko, Tignebok, Yatsynyuk, Yarosh and even Muzychko associates are a brilliant operation of the Kremlin team to return the Crimea to its rightful place. With all the members of this motley Ukrainian fraternity, who willingly (for money), who unwittingly (by stupidity) played according to the notes that they wrote in the Kremlin.
I allow myself to disagree with such a theory, neither prove nor disprove anything, as I said above, is impossible, but by circumstantial evidence (the explosive was too angry, watching the development of Kiev Maidan, even his neighbor circle) this theory of multi-way prelude to the return of the Crimea is unlikely. But I note that if these Yatsenyukov and Co. would not exist, they would be worth inventing. Yarosh, in my opinion, is worthy of a reward specially instituted for this occasion (Golden Rakes). Unforgettable Viktor Stepanovich Chernomyrdin said about his feat: “We wanted the best, but it turned out as always.” This, of course, is a joke, these guys from the trident and the new Galicia will have to pay attention, but more on that a little later.
Anyway, I think that Putin sat down at the table to play someone else's game, with the cards already distributed and the prescribed scenario.
We will look at these cards, try to evaluate as objectively as possible the strength and weakness of these cards.
Fortunately, at the time our president was connected to this seemingly already played combination, the enemy had already begun to make serious mistakes, thereby weakening his position. The brightest of these blunders:
- The abolition of the law on the prohibition of Nazi propaganda.
- Cancellation of the law on regional languages.
- Attempts by nationalists to climb into the regions of Donbass, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk.
- Sharp attacks towards the Crimea.
- Careless handling of high-level American and European diplomats.
- Living and healthy Yanukovych, also thrown by European patrons of Maidan to serious grandmothers.
- The Constitutional Court of Ukraine, dissolved, apparently for refusing to legitimize the removal of Yanukovych from power.
And all this in a matter of days! That is why they shouldn’t think a little, just a little and never cancel, let the law on propaganda of Nazism temporarily, keep the law on language for six months, extend the autonomy of Crimea for a year, convince Yanukovych himself to resign, changing his consent to the safety of his assets in Swiss banks, etc. The most advanced revolutionary in the history of V.I. Lenin believed that the mastery of the art of compromise by revolutionaries is an indispensable condition for the success of any revolution. Hence the peace of Brest, and the independence of Finland, and an alliance with all against all, from anarchists to social revolutionaries. But even these Lenin did not read.
However, with the new Ukrainian elite it could not be otherwise, putting out Klitschko’s brackets (during his sports career he received hundreds of blows to the head, each of which would make it impossible for any of his comrades in revolution to speak for ever). Looking closely at them, we have to admit that over the twenty years of independence, Ukraine has not formed a new ruling political and managerial elite, and the old, Soviet, no longer exist, or its remnants are not in demand. What is happening in Ukraine is possible because for more than twenty years no one of the claimants to the throne Square can form a stable team of professionals. A series of revolutions mows down the root of any shoots of stability without leaving even the most hope of what has come to power. Do not help even trained overseas Presidents Yushchenko. Well, if the ruling elite is not up to par, you can imagine who they are ahead of in the struggle for power, these losers are now commanding the parade. In theory, there should still be romantics in the new ruling team, who sincerely believe in a bright future for Ukraine without Russia, should only be there, there are none, at least not in the first roles. The new rulers of Ukraine did not let these romantics go beyond the limits of Maidan, romantics are needed to die on the barricades, others will rule.
Separately about Yarosh and no joke, as they say. This is the enemy, the enemy of our country, our people, all that we are proud of, all of our shrines of all times. This is his strength and his weakness, there is no, and there can be no compromise, and there is no place for dialogue, they are simply shot by mad dogs, Basayev, Dudaev, Rainbow, Umarov, Yandorbiyev, Yarosh wholesale, in toilet and in nature, on everyone, but with one final.
The western card in the game, which they themselves had launched, was not explicitly presented, at least they wanted to be in the shadows, it wasn’t, of course, without cakes for revolutionaries, but this was more impromptu than a deliberate action. The task of the West was to put together and rally the team of the revolution, the command of the destroyers of power. With whom and how they wanted to equip Ukraine, they began to think after they had brewed all this political intrigue. This follows from their telephone conversations among themselves, and even more so from the entire experience of the recent color revolutions. They, as always, have a plan like that, and with whom to break, there is a plan, what to build, and there is not the slightest intelligible idea with whom to build it, and who will build it. What can Klitschko, Tymoshenko, Tignek, Yatsynyuk, Yarosh create together? Only maidan. Where, how and what to learn, what to intend to build with such a team a new democratic Ukraine. Maybe the trick is in something else, and not in a free democratic Ukraine. We'll see, the West has just now clearly joined the game, before that they were publicly limited only to the distribution of pies and they also called each other publicly, but this is how they happen by chance.
What we have on hand, and that the purchase?
1. Legitimate President of Ukraine Yanukovych, who received guarantees from the Russian Federation, due, of course, to him, Yanukovych, to participate in the process in the right way. This is certainly not an ace, but under certain conditions it can become a trump six.
2. The presence on the territory of Ukraine of legally elected, supported by the population, authorities and regional leaders, resolutely and uncompromisingly disposed, ready and having to defend their pro-Russian position.
I want to believe that the leadership of Crimea truly realizes its historical mission and responsibility for the reunification of the Russian people. Here they are, just, at least, I was impressed by people sincerely believing in the loyalty of the chosen path to unification.
3. Having enough “polite”, trained, heavily armed infantry at the right time and in the right place. Given the possibility of support by armored vehicles and artillery, as well as air cover, the very existence of this trump card, to put it mildly, determines the outcome of the confrontation at the tactical level.
4. Awareness. The appearance at the right time, the right interceptions of the telephone conversations of the enemy and the absence of such information from him, makes it possible to have a tactical advantage. I also assume that the plans of the opponents have been studied and interpreted with a sufficient degree of reliability.
5. Unconditional internal consolidation of society around the idea of reunification of Russia and the Crimea, strengthening support for Putin’s course among all sectors of society. I did not see the latest ratings, but I think that Putin’s rating went up to + infinity. And this is also important, very important, it gives strength and confidence to the leader of the nation.
It is not always the outcome of a dispute that decides one or another argument, the ability to use these arguments is no less important than the very presence of any possibilities. The will to use these or other means, the determination to use them, the time to use them, the speed of decision making and the speed with which such decisions are executed are the essential conditions for effectively resolving a political dispute with strong opponents.
6. At present, Russia is being ruled by a person who is able to use all the means at his disposal to protect the interests of the country. This is absolutely clear to us, and the most important thing is that there are no doubts among our strategic partners.
So the partners at the negotiating table thought about whether to test Russia for strength, or immediately chew on a tie.
The policy of double standards is a double-edged thing and it is as old as the world. We can talk about Kosovo in particular, and Yugoslavia in general, but our position will not get closer and clearer in Washington, for example. Just take note that the people that can afford a strong and confident, resolutely defending their independence people are not available to people trying to just sell more expensive. Preferring not to the simple, troubled Russian unity, well-fed, calm slavery in the west, the Ukrainians thereby recognized themselves as second-class people. And that means that we should not hesitate to return to the Crimea, until there was a queue of Romanians, Polyaks and Hungarians. If now Russia can afford to return Crimea, then why and for what reasons should we not do this?
But what about Ukraine, what about our fraternal country? And what about that fraternity they remember only at certain moments directly related to the state of their treasury? I now think that the weak and the unprincipled are beaten and torn apart without regard to international law and the humanistic ideals of humanity, also with particular eagerness and cynicism, and the fact that this did not happen before was a great success. But luck - the lady is changeable.
It was such an alignment that was in the hands of the players, and what is curious immediately after V.Putin’s entry into the struggle for the interests of his country, it turned out that Ukraine had fallen out of this fight and it seems like forever.
The move was followed by him, and this move of President Putin turned not only the flow of the Maidan River, but also closed more than twenty years in the history of Russia. During one night, “polite” people took under guard the key objects of the Crimea, and this whole month-long story with a rally on the Maidan became secondary. The fact is that for a long time only one country America could afford such moves. And America just cannot afford it here and now, but Russia can. And our country took advantage of this opportunity, quickly, toughly, effectively and even “politely”. The Crimean Party was won in one move. Screams of guard, we'll meet again, where the UN is looking, help NATO, etc. in relation to the Crimea, even among the injured directors of Maidan themselves did not arouse enthusiasm. Even polite people in the Crimea, who removed the insignia from politeness, for some reason Americans are the last to be disturbed. It is even strange how hard they do not want to see with all their might. The Americans of these quite noticeable guys probably don’t know what to do with them when they notice.
The highest skill of the strategist consists in the ability to turn the most difficult defeat into a victory, a banal truth, but every time we see such examples, this focus causes admiration of even the most sophisticated viewers. The capitulation of power signed by Yanukovych at the time seemed like a catastrophe to Russia as a state and Putin as a leader, but in less than a day the empire struck back and launched an offensive.
The further course of events consolidated the success of President Putin, and now, against the background of Russia's readiness to deploy its Armed Forces on the territory of Ukraine, the Eurosalers perceive the referendum in the Crimea as a fait accompli. The events developed very quickly, it was funny to watch Leonid Slutsky, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, try to comment on the latest news on the issues of the Crimean referendum. His poor fellow, the journalists interrogated before the instruction came from above, like what to say, so he spun as best he could, trying to maintain relevance in any scenario. Well, later in the morning some ambiguity was removed in a statement by Naryshkin and Matvienko, the Parliament will support the decision of the people of Crimea expressed in a referendum.
Twenty-three years the fate of Crimea, Sevastopol, our fleet, of our torn consciousness, a dull pain responded to everyone who at least did not know much about the history of their country. And now the Russian spring gives hope, the story is being made before our very eyes.
We all need the final touch, a fat point, a clear victory with no less than 80% result in a referendum on the fate of the Crimea. Because it is not only the fate of the Crimea, it is the fate of all of Russia.
Victory without reservation, with a large turnout, at every polling station, in every city and village of the Crimea peninsula, without any miracles there from the wizard Churov. We need this not for Western observers and criticism, but for ourselves, for our children, for our unity.
What's next, what to expect in the Donbass, Kharkov, Odessa and in general in Ukraine?
I think that any campaigns of the “Neo-Banderes” to the east of Ukraine are hardly possible, Yatsenyuk and his team clearly see themselves as “polite” people in the Crimea, they can easily be angry when they meet with real fascists in Lugansk or Donetsk. And this will be the beginning and the inevitable end of the neo-Bandera regime. If they can still survive the loss of Crimea, they can even get some benefit from this sad event for them, trying to rally the nation against treacherous Russia, then the loss of at least one more territorial unit of Ukraine will inevitably lead to the collapse of all Ukrainian statehood. Therefore, these hot Ukrainian guys will be wary of sabers, and puppeteers are unlikely to allow Putin to make such a gift again.
Russia, Putin, most likely, will also not force the start of the next round of confrontation, it is necessary to consolidate success in the Crimea, hold a referendum, answer phone calls from concerned partners, reassure the UN.
The most important events, the general battle for Ukraine will begin, most likely, after the referendum in the Crimea. What are the goals and objectives for us in this fight?
I believe that the most likely scenario for Ukraine in the event of an attempt to preserve it as a single state will inevitably rest on the inevitability of the federalization of Ukraine. The current Kiev authorities will go to this scenario only under the joint pressure of the West and Russia, even if they neutralize the Yarosh neanderisers.
An alternative to such a scenario is the uncontrolled disintegration of Ukraine with an unpredictable ending, absolutely not acceptable to all parties. The problem is that the West is not fully aware of how close Ukraine has come to this line. If only the brains of European bureaucrats reach the idea of the reality of the collapse of Ukraine on a heap of hungry territories with nuclear power stations, militants Yarosh and an absolutely non-operating economy, shouting "Russia help" will not be in the Crimea, but in Brussels and Washington.
But this will mean that Russia will once again use its money to pay for someone else's European experiments, and the Russian soldier will have to finish off the Bandera bastard revived by the same European experimenters once again.
The variant of the civilized division of Ukraine into differently oriented parts is unlikely. Just imagine what a squabble will be for Kiev.
Well, the last option on the list of events is the very plan Obama-Merkel-Yatsenyuk, I don’t think they really have it or had it when they made this mess, but we will try to imagine what they want for Ukraine for the next 3-4 of the month .
The meaning of their gestures is reduced to an attempt to persuade everyone and everything, including themselves, that everything will be fine, to somehow calm the semi-feral east of Ukraine, revealing European values to these idiots. In the course of these sermons, try to bring the budget of Ukraine into conformity with their standards and accept them to the European Union as servants for everything. Neobanderovtsev Yarosh on the idea of the European Commissioners should themselves dissolve, and cultivated to an acceptable level in the civilized world. That is, the basis of their plan is the uncontested statement by anyone that sooner or later everything will be settled in any way, even by itself. More, no matter how hard I tried to see, I saw nothing there. In such a tricky way, when everyone suddenly sees the light and begins to live in a new, European way, they will manage to create a united, free, democratic Ukraine. In a word, in this brilliant combination, all that is missing is the aliens, who, in one night, will clear the brains of the lost Ukrainians with their cosmic rays.
How will everything be in reality, and where and by whom will the fate of Ukraine be decided?
It is said that in the history of one neighboring and no less freedom-loving state led by a young but educated ruler, there was a case when barbarian hordes stopped in one half-hour transition from the capital of that state. And there is a version that the ruler himself, and his big brothers overseas, swore on the ashes of their ancestors that the unfortunate, but freedom-loving state forever forgot about NATO, to prove the purity of its intentions the young ruler was even chewing on his favorite tie. That is why the barbarians returned to their barbaric country, and did not begin to ravage the capital and impale the young ruler. True, this state has become a little smaller in size and a bit quieter in relation to its neighbors, and then, thank God.
Maybe the fate of Ukraine is decided now? Maybe the drama has already become a farce? And the whole game has already been played in its entirety, and the players consider the profits and fix the losses, considering the views on the revenge?
So far it does not seem to be like that, if the story of Crimea with them (the united team of world good under the leadership of the United States) shook them, but not so much that they would admit mistakes. They will continue to bend their line with persistence worthy of a better use in Ukraine. For ourselves, we note that one way or another, the balance of power, but at a new level, taking into account the Crimean lessons, will soon be restored.
The world community hissed for half a year, after calming down Saakashvili, but what is half a year and what is Crimea and Sevastopol.
Separately, on sanctions.
Sanctions, of course, are not a pleasant thing, the ruble is falling, stocks are getting cheaper, capitalization is falling, schedules are frightening. Analysts are wondering if Europe will manage without gas, and Russia without Europe, how the reboot will end and when a new one will begin. Well, the most important question for all observers - who is stronger than Keith or Elephant?
But where is the Crimea and Ukraine? Why do they think there that our national consciousness is prostituted to such an extent. Here, foreigners came to our common Russian house, to rape our consciousness, tear down our shrines, to crap where our ancestors died for our freedom and wait for us to figure out how much we will be fined, if these guests beat their smiling faces let's become. What is it like? It does not occur to them?
I do not argue, there are quite a few people in our country who are integrated into the Western world so much so that quotes for Coca-Cola stocks are more important to them than Sevastopol. But even this public, parasitizing on our many things that saw the Motherland, will now be wary of going against the movement of the will of the people, they will wait out, they are mostly pragmatists.
Well, by the introduction of the sanctions themselves, I have a couple of simple questions and some comments on the grudge so to speak of the day.
Does Mr. Obama and Frau Merkel know that here in Siberia, (this is where oil and gas are made, winter is 7 months per year, frosts are in - 50 and salary in 10 are considered normal) people are ready to give their pensions Crimeans. Really ready. Although the Crimea and only see on TV.
In Russia in general, people are ready to endure a lot, so that the country would live. What would return the Crimea, what would Donbass remained Russian. And we, as it turned out, still have a leader who, as we have seen, is worthy of his people. Ukraine could well be proud, together with Russia, of all the common historical heritage, we won fascism together, broke into space together and did a lot more. But Ukraine chose to be separately proud of Bandera. And the sanctions of the European Union and the United States against Russia? Are you serious? You cannot even imagine how much the Russians can endure in order to win. And to return the Crimea is to win.
I understand, of course, that the aforementioned for Obama and Merkel, to whom I sort of appeal, nonsense alien or muttering wild tribes, so you can only reach their brain by knocking on their heads. But it can be for the better, even for sure for the better. Let not obedient savages punish them, depriving them of Coca-Cola and sneakers with comics, let them drive them out of the WTO, do not let them into Europe, if only they did not incite the Betman, we will survive the rest.
Why is this happening to Ukraine?
Those who served in the Soviet army probably remember the constant boring, at times and vicious moaning about the heavy of their share, fellow Ukrainians. In style - all our fat was eaten by Muscovites, they took all our bread for themselves, the best girls and those taken away. Usually, the last chord of the song was “How happy and rich Ukraine would be without Russia”, but for some reason I could not believe that their happiness could be achieved so easily, and indeed it all seemed like a delusion of inflamed consciousness. The paradox of the story is that, she, the story usually gives seekers what they are really looking for. But Ukraine was always looking for the same thing, she was looking for the opportunity to be in search, mistakenly believing that she was looking for happiness. Searched and found, searched again and found again. The continuous search for the shortest path to prosperity forced them to frequent changes of direction. That formed a community of ever dissatisfied trackers.
He continues to search now, trying on where and how much more profitable to sell his talents, to look again for new ways to even more profitable trade in the body and soul of his country, changing courses, orientations, premiers, presidents remaining, though unchanged in one. In recognition of the absoluteness, it’s true that all the troubles of Ukraine due to Moscow and Russia are always, for all ages, three hundred years and even three hundred years after. Even in the most eastern of the eastern regions of Ukraine, in the Russian of Ukrainian cities, any Russian-speaking resident in the depths of his soul, at its very bottom, will consider that Russia, at least, has cheated, curtailed, not given it, has taken it away.
Constantly shouting at all voices that Ukraine is a brotherly country, that we are one people with one history, are we not falling into the illusion of brotherhood with people who do not fully share our ideals.
They, our brothers and sisters, are different, different than we are, not the same as we draw them. And between us and the residents, for example, Lvov lies an abyss, and ignoring this simply will not work, and to call them brothers in my tongue will not turn for sure. About ten years ago I had three builders, brothers of Ukrainians from Lviv region. Builders from God, workers who produce their bread with honest and high-quality work. There was a time to watch them and talk on the themes of friendship between nations. I was surprised at how one of them shot cigarettes from one another, and the creditor wrote down the number of lent cigarettes, the date of issue and other important information in a special notebook. When issuing salaries, notebooks were taken to the light, records were checked, and cigarette and other commodity-money calculations were made. I talked with them and about Bandera, I learned from them that it was not their organs that weighed out, but overfished them, when the residents themselves decided that feeding the fighters for the freedom of Ukraine became expensive and handed them over with a light soul to the damned Moskals to be torn apart.
Therefore, I personally see the logic in everything that happens, any situation of eternal semi-definiteness, semi-multi-vector orientation with an uncovered desire to bite everything and everyone, self-proclaiming itself as a stronghold of European civilization in the wild east will constantly come into conflict with empty pockets of citizens. Well, it cannot be clear to them how it turns out that Ukraine is such an advanced, cultural, European power, but there is no money. And then there's the barbarians at their side, they don't give a living. So Maidan Maidan brothers.
In concluding the description of what I have seen in recent days, I cannot help noting that, in general, out of this regular storm, which we did not organize, our country has every chance of getting seriously strengthened. Russia today, having joined the struggle of the latter, can and must emerge victorious from this struggle, having also returned the previously lost territories. Unlike the United States, which started this game with Maidan against Yanukovych, against Putin, who did not decide on anything other than phone calls.
PS As a person and a citizen, I really hope that March 16 residents of Crimea will unequivocally express their desire to reunite with Russia in a referendum.