Military Review

Another CIA miscalculation: did not expect the invasion of Russian troops in the Crimea

42
3 in March, CIA Director John Brennan told US lawmakers in a confidential manner - Russia considers the introduction of troops into Ukrainian territory permissible under the provisions of an interstate agreement with Ukraine, which provides for the presence of RF troops in Crimea in 25 000.


According to Brennan, the number of Russian troops on the territory of the Ukrainian Peninsula in recent days is much less than the aforementioned limit. These words were voiced in private discussions with leading representatives of the American legislative branch of government.

Brennan urged lawmakers to be cautious in their statements, and his words sounded much softer than those of Secretary of State John Kerry. At the same time, representatives of the American intelligence community deny that they made a serious miscalculation last Thursday: for example, they said at secret hearings in Congress that they did not expect Russian troops to invade Crimea, although they admitted the likelihood of such a move by Putin.
However, the very next day, Russian troops occupied key positions in the Crimea, and by nighttime the CIA admitted that Russia had established control over the region. “Nobody predicted that,” said one of the US officials.

American intelligence agencies justify their miscalculation by the fact that Putin allegedly made a spontaneous decision on the use of military force. Surprisingly, the next US intelligence fiasco reminds of the events of August 2008 in Georgia, when the Russians also caught the CIA off guard.

According to a former CIA operative who did not wish to give his name, over the past 13 years his department paid full attention to the fight against terrorism, which undermined the CIA’s ability to conduct traditional espionage against major potential opponents, including Russia.

According to him, in the Kiev residency of the CIA, "at best, two or three operatives." “How can they have sources that allow forecasting Russia's intentions? Almost with confidence we can say that they do not have such sources, ”he noted.
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42 comments
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  1. lewerlin53rus
    lewerlin53rus 6 March 2014 07: 02
    +19
    Naive. Used to fight with banana republics. And as they encountered a real strong rival, they immediately got into a puddle.
    1. Semen Semyonitch
      Semen Semyonitch 6 March 2014 07: 16
      +11
      Quote: lewerlin53rus
      Used to fight with banana republics.


      Yes, they fought mainly with the "banana" republics, but we must not forget that this is the most equipped army in the world. All countries of the world, taken together, do not spend as much on defense as the United States. Underestimating the opponent will not lead to anything good, and thank God, our specialists understand this.
      1. Free Island
        Free Island 6 March 2014 08: 08
        +4
        there is such a good saying "Give the fool a glass horseradish, he will break him and cut his hands" .. this is about that very equipped and "pumped" US army ... what's the use? US Army - This is the one with the glass member, they have not won a single war with their equipment. So, they are sowing house on the planet, tyryat oil and bombing the civilian population by the thousands. the only thing is that in the last war in Iraq they bought generals and "fought" with 10% of the entire Iraqi army, and even then they almost earned a hernia. If it were not for the corruption of the generals, the US army would have finished the history of its existence in that very Iraq long ago.
        1. Semen Semyonitch
          Semen Semyonitch 6 March 2014 09: 49
          0
          Have you fought with them?
          1. dmitry_den
            dmitry_den 6 March 2014 10: 27
            +3
            They fought, but unofficially. Are you worried by the fact that Uncle Sam’s shaky war machine?
            1. Semen Semyonitch
              Semen Semyonitch 6 March 2014 17: 49
              0
              Quote: dmitry_den
              . Are you worried by the fact that Uncle Sam’s shaky war machine?


              Yes, I’m worried about it. How did she stumble? Did the aircraft carrier sink? Or have nearly 200 F-22s been retired?
        2. dmitry_den
          dmitry_den 6 March 2014 10: 43
          0
          All right. Our military industry made military equipment that was supposed to fulfill the task, at the same time be inexpensive, since the life time of equipment in the fighting is not so long, and the Anglo-Saxons and other Fuhrer are trying to make mercenaries and cadillacs from their park of menageries, the cost of which is estimated hundreds of millions, and the means to destroy them is much cheaper.
      2. Kostyar
        Kostyar 6 March 2014 10: 50
        0
        Well, let them underestimate us, the toy army is just a show off, they can only unarmed Aboriginal people shoot rockets, such a boat will not work with us !!!
      3. viktorrymar
        viktorrymar 6 March 2014 11: 45
        +1
        They spend a lot, most of all, but they steal the most, if it would be possible to really know how much money came to produce weapons, judging by the raptor, it didn’t get much money.
        1. Semen Semyonitch
          Semen Semyonitch 6 March 2014 17: 59
          0
          Quote: viktorrymar
          They spend a lot, most of all, but they steal the most, if it would be possible to really know how much money came to produce weapons, judging by the raptor, it didn’t get much money.


          Money came to almost 200 aircraft. And how many didn’t get it, the least I care about ...
      4. operator35
        operator35 6 March 2014 12: 41
        +2
        Quote: Semen Semenych
        Quote: lewerlin53rus
        Used to fight with banana republics.


        Yes, they fought mainly with the "banana" republics, but we must not forget that this is the most equipped army in the world. All countries of the world, taken together, do not spend as much on defense as the United States. Underestimating the opponent will not lead to anything good, and thank God, our specialists understand this.

        Dear Semyon Semyonich, they spend so much, because the army is hired, if you do not pay salaries and all kinds of bonuses, it will scatter. these are the states, there are still those warriors, I generally say. there are certainly good units, but they are few in the mass. the second is corruption - we never dreamed of such corruption as in the states, especially in the army. even the Chinese army is resting. but as for the equipment, so after all, technology without a person can do nothing, and the opinion in the world about the US army is greatly overestimated. there are friends in the army and the western specials-wrote here a provocative letter to them, I say, go to fight with us ??? wait for a meeting on the front line ???))) two just said "no", and two called me a fool, and then they said "no"))) they are afraid of us, afraid of our spirit! a friend wrote to me, "our government (states) is showing off on the world stage, provoking you, and there will be no one to fight and prove." And PMCs are not scary, yes, mercenaries, yes, they know how, but they are good against a deliberately weak enemy and will not go against a regular army either, because you want to live !! and no amount of money will win this desire! so we'll be alive)))
        1. Semen Semyonitch
          Semen Semyonitch 6 March 2014 18: 11
          0
          Quote: operator35
          And PMCs aren’t scary, but mercenaries, yes they cry, they can, but they are good against a obviously weak opponent and they won’t go against a regular army either, because you want to live !! and no money will win this desire! so we will be alive)))


          I'm not arguing about PMCs. I'm talking about the power and equipment of the US Army. And I don't argue about their morale either. I don’t know how old you are, but I assume that you’re not a boy, but a man of the old school. We have also grown a generation of managers, and I am not sure of their fighting spirit. The eldest son (24 years old), communicating with his peers, says that the majority do not understand why we are quarreling with the EU and the states for "some" Ukraine. For this generation of Pepsi (not for everyone, of course) it is more important to go to Europe on vacation than to have a relationship with a brotherly (they do not feel it) people.
      5. kirieeleyson
        kirieeleyson 6 March 2014 13: 40
        0
        When a country militarily has the concept of "unacceptable damage", the army turns into an instrument of trade, a ganza. This is no longer an army, this is XDR under the national flag. These can be killed for no reason, they do not fall under any convention that regulate the treatment of prisoners of war, wounded, cannot be exchanged / returned and can be condemned and detained within the framework of sovereign law by any country.
    2. platitsyn70
      platitsyn70 6 March 2014 07: 46
      +2
      but what kind of warriors are they in Afghanistan, all of NATO has been fighting for ten years, and the Taliban as masters remained so. Departure from the base for cigarettes at the bottom of a whole special operation. It's funny, but it’s a sin to laugh at holy fools.
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. Semen Semyonitch
        Semen Semyonitch 6 March 2014 09: 59
        +2
        Quote: platitsyn70
        Departure from the base for cigarettes at the bottom of a whole special operation.


        That's why they have so few losses ...
    3. jjj
      jjj 6 March 2014 09: 19
      0
      Apparently, the confrontation in Ukraine will be transferred to the partisan phase. But here both NATO and the US are weak. Soldiers of fortune are only at first glance a serious adversary. They can fight unarmed and poorly trained. But, if you give them a bashing, which has happened repeatedly - ours also beat them as cute - and so, as usual, they begin to save their skins
    4. Max otto
      Max otto 6 March 2014 14: 04
      +1
      Quote: lewerlin53rus
      Naive. Used to fight with banana republics. And as they encountered a real strong rival, they immediately got into a puddle.

      Rejoice early !!! If Crimea was defended, then in the regions adjacent to Crimea, not everything is so wonderful, I would say everything is good there. It’s time to do something, and there all the round dances drive, there is no specifics. Enough for Putin to look back at the USA and the EU, they are all inadequate, even if they’re in the eye, they will never admit their wrong.
  2. v53993
    v53993 6 March 2014 07: 04
    +4
    “No one predicted that,” one American official said.

    I wonder what they have not predicted yet.
    1. alex-s
      alex-s 6 March 2014 08: 26
      +1
      US intelligence agencies justify their miscalculation by the fact that Putin allegedly made a spontaneous decision on the use of military force.

      And he does everything spontaneously, so to speak from the heart! good
  3. Name
    Name 6 March 2014 07: 11
    +6
    Bah ... peasant nightmares torment what kind of troops of the Russian Federation in the Crimea ... she, she, need to fight diarrhea to everyone in the USA .... can "bird cherry" in terms of humanitarian aid send ... wink
  4. bomg.77
    bomg.77 6 March 2014 07: 17
    +1
    Like yesterday, the article was discussed what
  5. 020205
    020205 6 March 2014 07: 20
    +10
    What are the troops of Russia in the Crimea? Not gentlemen Americans polite people there laughing wassat
  6. Sergg
    Sergg 6 March 2014 07: 24
    +5
    And Vaska is listening yes.
    I wanted Russia to defend Donbas as well.
    And let these CIA dolls whine further from resentment.
    1. Semen Semyonitch
      Semen Semyonitch 6 March 2014 07: 48
      +4
      Quote: Sergg
      I wanted Russia to defend Donbas as well.


      I'm afraid Donbass will be crushed. Some kind of flimsy protests ... Look at the air with which the governor, appointed from Kiev, talked to five negotiators. He would have talked to the Maidan people like that, he would have hung on a lantern long ago. And here you can, with the cultured and unarmed. Need "groups" of support ...
  7. parus2nik
    parus2nik 6 March 2014 07: 26
    +5
    This is psychosis ... Russian troops are everywhere, even under the bed .. In the American madhouse, holidays ...
  8. mountain
    mountain 6 March 2014 07: 44
    +2
    Let them learn how to fight if they don’t read history. But recently, Yugoslavia was and only the situation saved them, then from shame.
  9. Berimor 2
    Berimor 2 6 March 2014 07: 55
    +1
    Another evidence of impotence in the West.
  10. stayer
    stayer 6 March 2014 07: 58
    +2
    I wonder what they predict? In the sense that they came up with their own actions, while the Russians, as it were, did not calculate at all. It seems that they consider one or two options, and they think that Russia will follow them as if by notes. Of course, any deviation from the notes upsets the whole melody. But they also admit that they did it, that's really funny ...
    1. alex-s
      alex-s 6 March 2014 08: 28
      0
      I wonder what they predict?

      The mind does not understand Russia .....
  11. mik667
    mik667 6 March 2014 08: 13
    0
    It can only fart into the water loudly. RUSSIA is stronger.
  12. Strashila
    Strashila 6 March 2014 08: 28
    +1
    What an invasion ... the CIA analyst choked on a donut, amnesia developed amid hypoxia ... he forgot that the Russians didn’t have to invade ... they’re already there ... for 300 years.
    1. dmitry_den
      dmitry_den 6 March 2014 10: 52
      0
      They are excusable. They do not teach history and do not draw the right conclusions.
  13. kartalovkolya
    kartalovkolya 6 March 2014 08: 29
    0
    My friends, shouldn't we reread The Adventure of the Gallant Soldier Schweik? Painfully the characters are similar to the bosses of Svejk. Well, what kind of invasion can we talk about when there is a Russian military contingent on the territory of Crimea, even smaller than the one established according to the Treaty. Well, how can you reconnoiter what was not there? And they are so-so fighters. The hired army is suitable only for suppressing the "banana" republics and the actions of its own people! It would be interesting to hear from the Amerovski soldiers: "For the Motherland! For Obama!", I doubt however ... And as for the "most equipped Army "here" grandmother said for two ": technology, technology, but the main thing in the War is LUDI. In Nazi Germany, she was better than ours and where are they now?
  14. RUS96
    RUS96 6 March 2014 08: 31
    +5
    .................................................. ...................
  15. rugor
    rugor 6 March 2014 08: 39
    0
    “At best, two or three operatives.” “How can they have sources to predict Russia's intentions?


    So, at a secret hearing in Congress, they stated


    But there are plenty of our operatives in Congress laughing
  16. sub307
    sub307 6 March 2014 08: 49
    0
    Which, in FIG, INVASION, when we were already there already and, I hope, is and will be there.
  17. region46
    region46 6 March 2014 09: 08
    0
    we ourselves are in shock! not like the CIA
  18. Potin
    Potin 6 March 2014 09: 09
    0
    Quote: Berimor 2
    Another evidence of impotence in the West.

    They are far from impotent. And they did not stop the Cold War. The fact that the CIA made some miscalculations, the ini will quickly play. Donetsk asks for support from Rissia, and American soldiers walk along the streets. East they crush. There really is a weak pro-Russian force.
  19. propolsky
    propolsky 6 March 2014 09: 10
    0
    Here what the heart tells you to do, not the mind ... Although you can’t count the Slavic mind, don’t pull it.
  20. a.hamster55
    a.hamster55 6 March 2014 09: 40
    0
    While the enemy is drawing an offensive map, we change landscapes, moreover, manually. When the time comes for an attack, the enemy is lost in an unfamiliar area, and comes into complete sky readiness.
  21. ammunition
    ammunition 6 March 2014 09: 44
    +6



    a lot of mat .. but there's nothing to be done))
    1. andrey04.1971
      andrey04.1971 6 March 2014 10: 38
      +1
      ammunition well done
  22. igor-pchelkin
    igor-pchelkin 6 March 2014 09: 51
    +2
    Why do the US invent all kinds of military robots and pespilots? And then, that the army of mercenaries psychological stability is very low. 3% Mercenaries go to the army to EARN MONEY, then to live a comfortable life. And if they begin to KILL them in the war, then .... And 3 percent means that if out of hundreds of US Army soldiers, three are killed in battle, the rest require air cover, fire support and space support. What the hell attack if three have already been killed!
  23. Ramadan
    Ramadan 6 March 2014 09: 52
    0
    I think that our people confused them with cards because they entered there very quickly without identification marks. It’s not a standard move. So they could not predict it.
  24. VNP1958PVN
    VNP1958PVN 6 March 2014 10: 17
    0
    Sorry, not posted on Facebook. Pichalka? tongue
  25. kelevra
    kelevra 6 March 2014 11: 15
    0
    It’s not in vain that our president is a former KGB officer! Although, there are no law enforcement officers of the former.
  26. I read the news
    I read the news 6 March 2014 12: 25
    0
    At the CIA’s Kiev residency, “at best, two or three operatives”
    Not funny joke. They even give diplomas to the SBU Academy graduates.

    http://censor.net.ua/photo_news/30967/vypusk_akademii_sbu_ofitserskie_zvaniya_pr
    isvaival_posol_ssha_teyilor_fotoreportaj_obnovleno
  27. The comment was deleted.
  28. Leshka
    Leshka 6 March 2014 12: 54
    0
    they are holding us for fools
  29. gavr002
    gavr002 6 March 2014 14: 47
    0
    Quote: alex-s
    US intelligence agencies justify their miscalculation by the fact that Putin allegedly made a spontaneous decision on the use of military force.

    And he does everything spontaneously, so to speak from the heart! good

    The mind does not understand Russia !!!
  30. Sterlya
    Sterlya 8 March 2014 06: 28
    0
    Quote: igor-pchelkin
    Why do the US invent all kinds of military robots and pespilots? And then, that the army of mercenaries psychological stability is very low. 3% Mercenaries go to the army to EARN MONEY, then to live a comfortable life. And if they begin to KILL them in the war, then .... And 3 percent means that if out of hundreds of US Army soldiers, three are killed in battle, the rest require air cover, fire support and space support. What the hell attack if three have already been killed!

    well yes. even without one (wounded) hundred. not a hundred. what nafig attack stop