Military Review

And yet: there will be no gas. About Ukraine’s Gas Tomorrow

45
Discussion of "production" (and in particular - oil and gas) issues in the Ukrainian story - the task, in general, is not a priority. First, they fade against the background of the tragic and fateful events. Secondly, economic decisions on “oil and gas” will in any case be secondary to political decisions and configurations that are not yet obvious. Nevertheless, some observations allow ourselves to fix.


Gas import: timeservers logic

First - the gas. On Tuesday, the outgoing head of the Ministry of Energy (he was “out of politics” and at that time even remained at his post) Edward Stavitsky gave an interview to Kommersant-Ukraine. As for gas, it was stated thesis:

1. Ukraine intends to continue to develop shale mining (in collaboration with foreign companies).

2. Ukraine is still interested in creating a reverse channel from Europe, and work in this area, we quote, “will be led by other people, and probably this will be task number one for them. I will give them all the documents, materials and practices so that they can use them. ”

3. In the draft LNG terminal in the current version it makes no sense.

The fact that it was decided to abandon the project of the LNG terminal is not surprising: this is obviously an unprofitable undertaking.

But the two remaining ways of getting rid of Russian gas are still on the agenda, whatever the Ukrainian “government” may be.

But, as you know, at the end of last year, Russia provided a large discount (gas began to cost about 268 dollars per thousand cubic meters). And within the framework of new prices, both projects (slate and especially reverse) do not make sense. The reasons for returning to them are also clear: it was assumed that the discount would be tied to the “roadmap” for Russian-Ukrainian cooperation and would be revised quarterly. Cooperation is, of course, not in the best condition. So, since April, the price of gas can grow somewhere on 130 dollars - up to 400 dollars per thousand cubic meters.

It would seem that it's time to choose the gas to the maximum from the Russian supplies - for the time being guaranteed cheap. Nevertheless, Ukraine right now has significantly reduced its purchases of Russian gas, while at the same time choosing gas from underground storage facilities to the maximum.

The reasons here may be different. Firstly, there is nothing to pay for gas right now, and what will happen in a month - who is interested in it now?

Secondly, it must be remembered that some of the gas that is formally on the balance in the UGS is technological, that is, it cannot be removed. In fact, it is a gas that has been constantly in storage over the past decades, providing the necessary level of buffer gas for stable transit to the EU. And in UGS, not only Naftogaz gas. For example, 5 billion is still stored there, which D. Firtash bought from Gazprom in the fall (he cannot spend it ahead of time, because Gazprom has the right to buy back gas before spring). In addition, the gas slowly rises to ensure transit to the EU.

Therefore, in fact, the principle of "who first got up - that and sneakers", and to take away your gas, for example, in April, it will not work for everyone. In the future we will analyze the topic of UGS in new realities in more detail, for now, in order to reassure readers, let us say at once that there is no Russian gas there - Gazprom after the past gas crises in the UkrPHG does not store its fuel.

Anyway, if the current rates of gas extraction from the UGS remain, the heating season Ukraine may end up with record low volumes of gas in the UGS, and Europe in the spring may feel slight discomfort: it will not freeze (spring), but by 100% the stated volumes of gas it may not succeed. In the next heating season, problems will be much more serious.

Ukrainian refineries: additional losses for Russia

In the "oil" part, in contrast to the "gas", while more of the economy and less politics. Here the greatest interest is oil refining. Recall that almost all Ukrainian refineries (six in total) are idle, a significant part of the oil products are imported. The only stable working - Kremenchug refinery, controlled by the group "Privat". This situation has developed due to the sum of various reasons: the level of modernization, access to oil pipelines, etc.

The Odessa refinery, until recently, belonged to Lukoil and has not worked since 2009. Last year it was acquired by the company VETEK, officially headed by S. Kurchenko and unofficially associated with the son of V. Yanukovich. Of course, now VETEK in Ukraine is the first claimant to expropriation. All key employees, at least in Kiev, actually fled, the company's work was paralyzed.

VETEK has recently consolidated a variety of energy assets: here and gas trading (the same reverse from Europe), here and trade in liquefied hydrocarbon gases (here the market share of VETEK is already regaining the Kremenchug refinery).

But we are interested in the Odessa Refinery, which, having just begun work in September, stops again. And not because Russian oil went there, we will find it where to sell it.

The fact is that the Odessa Refinery was recently (seemingly in time for?) Laid down by VTB Bank as security for loans issued by the Russian state-owned bank to the VETEK group of companies. The amount - 370 million. How events will develop - is unclear. Who will be responsible for the debts of "VETEK"? Will it be possible to resell the refinery, even if VTB can prove (to whom?) Its rights to it? If it still did not have time to lay - even worse. Will VTB be able to repay these loans in any way?

It will be difficult to resell the Odessa Refinery without a loss, as it has a fairly low technological level, previously it was supposed to ensure profitability, including taking into account the “special” rules of the game established by the authorities for VETEK. Who needs it now and at what price is unclear.

The second idle refinery, whose launch seems sensible, is the Lisichansk refinery (Lugansk region), inherited from Rosneft by TNK-BP. Earlier, the leadership of Rosneft assumed that the plant could be launched this summer. By the way, even the old, relatively loyal to Moscow authorities hinted at the desirability of creating a joint venture with Ukraine. It’s too early to talk about what the position of the new authorities will be and whether there will be a single center of power in general, since political uncertainties are more than high. But it is clear that the launch, if it takes place anyway, will be much later. In the meantime - simple and, accordingly, losses.
Author:
Originator:
http://www.odnako.org/blogs/i-tem-ne-menee-gaza-ne-budet-o-gazovom-zavtra-ukraini/
45 comments
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  1. AVV
    AVV 1 March 2014 13: 03
    +8
    Ukraine has a lot of debts, but there is nothing to give back, so no new loans can be seen until adequate leaders come to power !!!
    1. mnbv199
      mnbv199 1 March 2014 13: 52
      +18
      SIMFEROPOL, Mar 1 - RIA News. A referendum on the status of autonomy will be held in Crimea on March 30, said Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Autonomous Republic Sergey Aksenov.

      “Due to the need, we decided to speed up the referendum on the status of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. The referendum is scheduled for March 30,” Aksenov said during the first meeting of the Crimean Council of Ministers in the new composition.

      http://m.ria.ru/world/20140301/997663501.html
      1. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 1 March 2014 14: 20
        +2
        Quote: mnbv199
        "Due to the need, we decided to speed up the referendum on the status of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. The referendum is scheduled for March 30,"

        Good news. Obama and all sorts of horseradish will rise from the Crimea and the east. What they can do.
        1. Tersky
          Tersky 1 March 2014 16: 29
          +1
          Quote: Alexander Romanov
          Good news. Obama and all sorts of horseradish will rise from the Crimea and the east. What they can do.

          The Russian Foreign Ministry said that Moscow considers it irresponsible Kiev’s actions to escalate tensions in the Crimean autonomy, expressed in the direction of an armed group of people trying to seize the building of the local Ministry of Internal Affairs in Simferopol News of the Day
        2. stroporez
          stroporez 2 March 2014 08: 00
          +1
          Quote: Alexander Romanov
          and all sorts of Obama. what can do.
          , an individual by whose order they killed a lot of people, by the way, using chemical weapons ......... what the hell to listen to cannibals !! ?? and, yes, tolerance, her mouth in her mouth ...... .
      2. Des10
        Des10 1 March 2014 15: 35
        0
        Quote: mnbv199
        “Due to the need, we decided to speed up the referendum on the status of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. The referendum is scheduled for March 30,” Aksenov said during the first meeting of the Crimean Council of Ministers in the new composition.

        in a month they can change their minds ... or they will force politicians from both sides.
      3. The comment was deleted.
      4. wax
        wax 2 March 2014 02: 19
        +1
        Here are just the question submitted to the referendum, again formulated "with a squiggle" - maybe later they will clarify.
    2. Ari100kraT
      Ari100kraT 1 March 2014 13: 55
      +9
      Let's start with the fact that the current pseudo-authorities of Ukraine have no money and no "ties" with the Russian authorities, and therefore there will be no gas or oil, and in addition to this, Russia has already announced that there will be no discounts on gas that Yanyk was given ...
      1. Ukraine intends to continue to develop shale mining (in collaboration with foreign companies).

      2. Ukraine is still interested in creating a reverse channel from Europe, and work in this area, we quote, “will be led by other people, and probably this will be task number one for them. I will give them all the documents, materials and practices so that they can use them. ”

      3. In the draft LNG terminal in the current version it makes no sense.

      1. The land and water are cranky, but gas will never be tested by the Poles
      2. Buying Russian gas through intermediaries is another change.
      3. The Poles are building and have already looted ... They signed a super-genial (like all Polish) contract for the supply of liquefied gas according to the take-or-pay scheme and are late with the construction of the terminal, not only is gas more expensive than Gazpromovsky, there’s nowhere to bring it but you have to pay wassat
      Today, a certain Andrzej Szczesnyak, a local analyst "in law," is broadcasting something completely different. It turns out that the LNG terminal will be a stone around PGNiG's neck, and Qatar gas will be 40-50% more expensive for Russia than Poland. The local government "chief power engineer" is even more pessimistic in his assessments. It was not possible to get specific figures from him, but he believes that "the Qatari premium will be even higher."
      According to Reuters, the price of LNG from Qatar will be approximately $ 20.50 / mmBtu, compared with the cost of Russian long-term gas supplies to Europe $ 13.50 / mmBtu.

      What to do with all this? Szczesnyak proposes not to pump too much: "Poland will live with this and prepare to minimize losses," especially since "it is possible to resell the gas received from Qatar on the market, but probably at a lower price."
      I believe that the title of "Rzhach Pospoliti" by Pan Szczesnyak is well deserved. Let him wear it proudly and not trample.

      And for people who are not burdened with this high title, it is obvious that the problem of high prices will be solved by "end consumers". Whoever can. Well, and so, just in case: the next elections in Poland - in 2015. And in the PGNiG / Qatargas contract, the start of 2015 is also set for the start of LNG supplies to the terminal in Swinoustye.


      Completely about the Polish terminal here: http://aftershock.su/?q=node/37467
    3. ele1285
      ele1285 1 March 2014 14: 00
      +13
      Quote: AVV
      Ukraine has a lot of debts, but there’s nothing to give back,

      They are in their usual way, to ride a ball. If this sometimes happened with Russia, then this number will not work with the EU and the IMF. Maybe I'm wrong, but it has never happened that the IMF helped someone and the country's economy has risen. Correct if I am mistaken. All of these three (a boxer, etc.) came to Ukraine in order to sell the last thing in Ukraine, primarily land.
      1. bootlegger
        bootlegger 1 March 2014 15: 56
        +1
        We only benefit from positive IMF decisions. Let them give loans. Gazprom will pump them out through gas. The Bandera regime will not last long.
        And the EU will have to hastily cancel the energy package.
        Transit through Ukraine will soon become impossible and the joint venture will work to the fullest. Yes and UP are no longer necessary to lead through the waters of Turkey. It will go through the waters of Crimea and it will flourish no worse than Sochi.
    4. Reasonable, 2,3
      Reasonable, 2,3 1 March 2014 14: 08
      +8
      He wrote an article about oil shale. Well, it doesn’t roll economically.
  2. 31231
    31231 1 March 2014 13: 48
    +9
    From the beginning, Azarov was caught up, and here the most real and effective minister Stavitsky was leaked. But my opinion is that this is the most competent and initiative minister in Ukraine.
  3. Igor39
    Igor39 1 March 2014 13: 56
    +8
    And I do not give a damn about the money of the capitalists who will not return, acquired by overwork.
    1. ele1285
      ele1285 1 March 2014 14: 03
      +2
      Quote: Igor39
      And I do not care for the money of the capitalists who will not return.

      Me too, but what they lose there, they compensate here.
  4. Mercenary
    Mercenary 1 March 2014 13: 57
    +7
    As I understand it, in the end, ordinary Russians will pay for all these political intricacies. none of our company will allow you to lose profits. So, for all the downtime and losses in Ukraine, we will pay an increase in fuel prices and everything else is just around the corner.
    1. Reasonable, 2,3
      Reasonable, 2,3 1 March 2014 18: 46
      -1
      Not for you to decide.
    2. stroporez
      stroporez 2 March 2014 08: 06
      0
      Quote: Mercenary
      So we will pay for all downtime and losses in Ukraine
      ---- but who ......... is already small by little ........
  5. Gagarin
    Gagarin 1 March 2014 14: 04
    +3
    Even huge debts may not prevent you from taking new loans if the CONDITIONS of new loans are appropriate.
    1. avt
      avt 1 March 2014 14: 12
      +3
      Quote: Gagarin
      Even huge debts may not prevent you from taking new loans if the CONDITIONS of new loans are appropriate.

      And x ... with them. To play with the Geyvropians in their favorite "market" game is to leave the legal successors of the project "Ukraine1991" for the debts for 3,14zdenets, and the new Ukraine of Russia, even better - the new regions of the Empire are not responsible for the old debts.
    2. bootlegger
      bootlegger 1 March 2014 15: 49
      0
      The last Ukrainian Eurobonds were not allowed to go public.
      What conditions can be enslaving?
  6. 31231
    31231 1 March 2014 14: 16
    +1
    This is news for me personally!
    Therefore, in fact, the principle of "who first got up - that and sneakers", and to take away your gas, for example, in April, it will not work for everyone. In the future we will analyze the topic of UGS in new realities in more detail, for now, in order to reassure readers, let us say at once that there is no Russian gas there - Gazprom after the past gas crises in the UkrPHG does not store its fuel.


    And I think that such Europe is silk.
    And the new lack of power does not give a damn. There is no money, there will be European gas from the storage. No, well, Europe promised a lard of euro, so they will announce to her that they have already taken it from the storage facility with gas.
    1. dr.star75
      dr.star75 1 March 2014 15: 08
      +2
      I read this article on "however," both then and now I cannot understand: why are they pumping gas from the underground gas storage facility? We didn’t seem to shut off the pipe. If the pipe is closed in the spring, Ukraine does not pay for gas, then there will be no transit in euros either (and the storage boxes of the gas storage facilities are empty). In winter, what will the west be drowned with? Or has Gazprom muddied the entire Maidan? The goal is to raise the price, to stimulate Europe to love the village. and y. flows, and the European gas safety charter request
      1. Tersky
        Tersky 1 March 2014 16: 52
        +2
        Quote: dr.star75
        I read this article on "however", both then and now I can not understand: why are they pumping gas from the underground gas storage?

        And you sho, do not know the banderage? Then, what would then accuse Moscow of stealing gas from the UGS laughing
        1. dr.star75
          dr.star75 1 March 2014 21: 10
          0
          Too primitive. Here something else is planned.
    2. RND
      RND 1 March 2014 16: 54
      0
      Quote: 31231
      This is news for me personally!
      And I think that such Europe is silk.
      And the new lack of power does not give a damn. There is no money, there will be European gas from the storage. No, well, Europe promised a lard of euro, so they will announce to her that they have already taken it from the storage facility with gas.

      I agree. Plus - the almost complete absence of its own oil refining. In general - "harness the horses' claps".
      And stoke with wood ...
  7. 31231
    31231 1 March 2014 14: 30
    +2
    The article is interesting. Especially for Svidomo.
  8. Naum
    Naum 1 March 2014 14: 44
    +4
    Quote: Alexander Romanov
    all sorts of hell Obama. that can do.

    Unfortunately, they can ... How do you like the 5th (or whatever) American fleet in the Black Sea? They have lost their fear of impunity and permissiveness. They feel invulnerable and the only right in everything. All this can be very good. to end badly - for all inhabitants of the Earth. It is not just the existence of Russia that is under threat, but the entire civilization. I think that we will not perish alone - we will take with us the completely retired "mattresses" with their prostituted Geyropa. This will be Armageddon!
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 1 March 2014 15: 10
      +4
      Quote: Naum

      Unfortunately, they can ... How do you like the 5th (or whatever) American fleet in the Black Sea?

      And what will he do? will start the 3rd world war because of Bandera. Then, from the USA itself, there is not enough left.
      1. nikcris
        nikcris 1 March 2014 15: 56
        0
        In the word Cho, it is necessary to write the letter Y. I agree with everything else. drinks
        1. alexey garbuz
          alexey garbuz 1 March 2014 17: 28
          0
          Correctly not "what". not "cho", but "faq" !!! )))
          1. nikcris
            nikcris 1 March 2014 20: 01
            0
            Then uSh - chavoyto - even the arrow is not needed.
      2. Tersky
        Tersky 1 March 2014 17: 12
        +2
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        And what will he do?

        Sasha, I don’t know, but I know for sure what was already done to him in 1988.
        1. pawel1961
          pawel1961 1 March 2014 23: 52
          0
          bold beautifully says i came to look at the tips
    2. valokordin
      valokordin 1 March 2014 18: 56
      0
      Quote: Naum
      Quote: Alexander Romanov
      all sorts of hell Obama. that can do.

      Unfortunately, they can ... How do you like the 5th (or whatever) American fleet in the Black Sea? They have lost their fear of impunity and permissiveness. They feel invulnerable and the only right in everything. All this can be very good. to end badly - for all inhabitants of the Earth. It is not just the existence of Russia that is under threat, but the entire civilization. I think that we will not perish alone - we will take with us the completely retired "mattresses" with their prostituted Geyropa. This will be Armageddon!

      It is possible, but I think the real owners on Wall Street will not allow this. It will not be congenial.
  9. Strashila
    Strashila 1 March 2014 14: 51
    +2
    "2. Ukraine is still interested in creating a reverse channel from Europe" ... but to us, to the star, the gas will still be Russian, only the smut will decrease ... let their European partners tumbling with them, but the money will come to us without problems ...
  10. individual
    individual 1 March 2014 14: 54
    +8
    Hmm ...
    In the winter of 2015, Kievans will spare the stupidly burned firewood and tires on the Maidan.
  11. Stinger
    Stinger 1 March 2014 15: 01
    +4
    Shale, you say. Patience, Stubing, and your stubble will turn into gold!
  12. captain
    captain 1 March 2014 15: 28
    0
    Senya (Yatsenyuk), it's a good bazaar, start working, otherwise you will soon be hanged at the church. The rallies are over, Klitschko and Tymoshenko are waiting for you to be uplifted and will come to participate in the elections. The Jewish community of Ukraine to prepare for the evacuation, do not believe you.
  13. pts-m
    pts-m 1 March 2014 15: 30
    0
    yes the tops seem to be ... the krains live one day. and the people are looking at them as best they can! they are to blame for everything, I’m the Nazi face, but I don’t see myself from the outside. that means they like to live like that.! and RIP! not invented by us. but rightly said!
  14. Boricello
    Boricello 1 March 2014 15: 30
    0
    Before the winter, this clownish government still needs to live. What I think will be very difficult to do. There is no money and the situation will worsen every day more and more. As if all these maydauns who came on the crest of the protest with bayonets were not dressed soon, when the people would have nothing to eat.
  15. Zomanus
    Zomanus 1 March 2014 15: 31
    +1
    Good article again. I wonder if the option of paying off debts by Ukrainian territories will be considered. After all, the current government in a couple of months oh how hard it will be. It is one thing to make a revolution when there is an old (full) people around who have enough food and all the communal goods at hand. And another thing is when this people will be hungry, cold and without benefits. And at the same time there will be Crimea (I hope that by that time it’s not only him) who lives well on Russian money. And in general, you can squeeze and spend money on the purchase of territories, because it will definitely pay off.
  16. pts-m
    pts-m 1 March 2014 15: 33
    0
    dudes, editors on the site, it seems you yourself said that you printed. You do not need to distort the written. You yourself are natsik.
  17. polkovnik manuch
    polkovnik manuch 1 March 2014 15: 39
    +4
    Whether we want to admit it or not, the supply of gas and other hydrocarbons, as well as the fact that enterprises in the southeast are still working, is a trump card and a merit of Russia. The puppeteers in the West understand this, too, so "waking up and terrified," they are trying to "involve Russia in the process of rendering assistance to Ukraine." The answer must be firm: LET'S WAIT, LOOK, SEE IT, and then we'll see! WE WILL SUPPORT WHERE WE ARE CONSIDERED FRIENDS AND BROTHERS!
  18. voliador
    voliador 1 March 2014 17: 47
    0
    Secondly, economic decisions on "oil and gas" will in any case be secondary to political decisions and configurations

    Do not tell, these decisions will be tied together in a tight knot.
  19. repytw
    repytw 1 March 2014 18: 22
    0
    Vladimir Putin applied for permission to the Federation Council "on the use of the armed forces of the Russian Federation in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea," according to the website of the President of Russia. “In connection with the extraordinary situation in Ukraine, the threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation, our compatriots, and the personnel of the military contingent of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation deployed in accordance with an international agreement on the territory of Ukraine (Autonomous Republic of Crimea), on the basis of paragraph“ g ” Part 1 of Article 102 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation I submit to the Council of the Federation of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation an appeal on the use of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the territory and Ukraine to normalize the socio-political situation in this country ”

    I would like to draw your attention to the words "on the territory of Ukraine" not only in Crimea.
  20. wanderer
    wanderer 1 March 2014 18: 33
    0
    Well, this news is here as well, while Crimea de jure is still the territory of Ukraine. How not to twist.
  21. Phase
    Phase 1 March 2014 19: 00
    0
    Good article. On business
  22. valokordin
    valokordin 1 March 2014 19: 04
    0
    Gas, then Gas, and who will supply gas to Crimea, through what networks, or build a southern stream through the Kerch Strait, and how to supply gas to industrial enterprises in the East and South of Ukraine. This should also be foreseen.
  23. kind
    kind 1 March 2014 19: 40
    0
    Ukraine is still interested in creating a reverse channel from Europe, and work in this direction, we quote, “will be conducted by other people, and probably this will be their number one task. I will hand over all the documents, materials and best practices to them so that they use them. ”

    Those. buy the same Russian gas, but passed through the "purification crucible" of Europe! Thus, this is already European gas, and the price, respectively ...
    Marasmus??? No, of course, this is the strategy of those who do not live in Ukraine.
  24. BOB48
    BOB48 1 March 2014 20: 09
    +1
    I begin to understand Svetletshey Gorchakov !!! That's who the real nostradamus is!
  25. bald
    bald 1 March 2014 20: 11
    0
    You really need to support only those who ask for it, and not everyone. After all, as a rule, they hate those who provide assistance without asking. - They want to step in their right! Do not impose your views. What do you do if the ass asks for adventure - so be it. The biggest problem is that they are waiting for manna from heaven where it basically won't be. (Let Chernobyl be remembered) There is no need to represent the majority of Ukrainians as their brothers - this is a lie! There is a saying: "There is nothing for a Jew to do where he went" - Here is the whole essence of the relationship between our peoples. The Ukrainians considered themselves to be higher than the Russians - and so they will - until the rooster bites in one place. The only bad thing is that the mistakes of history, as a rule, cannot be corrected - well, they fought for that and ran into it, that's the whole story.
  26. igor-pchelkin
    igor-pchelkin 1 March 2014 23: 27
    +1
    And Barak Huseynovich again swears in a hair dryer!
    1. ramzes1776
      ramzes1776 2 March 2014 00: 09
      +1
      Quote: igor-pchelkin
      And Barak Huseynovich again swears in a hair dryer!

      Come on. He swears so much. So that they don’t suspect his own. And so he is our Cossack mishandled laughing
  27. nomad74
    nomad74 2 March 2014 01: 05
    0
    Quote: dr.star75
    I read this article on "however," both then and now I cannot understand: why are they pumping gas from the underground gas storage facility? We didn’t seem to shut off the pipe. If the pipe is closed in the spring, Ukraine does not pay for gas, then there will be no transit in euros either (and the storage boxes of the gas storage facilities are empty). In winter, what will the west be drowned with? Or has Gazprom muddied the entire Maidan? The goal is to raise the price, to stimulate Europe to love the village. and y. flows, and the European gas safety charter request


    Even if this is so, then it is very excellent! Just great! Bring Europe to life!