Military Review

Frightening similarity: 1914 - 2014

33
Frightening similarity: 1914 - 2014



Humanity is in grave danger of repeating the mistakes that resulted in the outbreak of the First World War, said authoritative historian and Margaret Macmillan professor at the University of Cambridge.

History full of paradoxes. One of the main things is that it never repeats completely and at the same time repeats as a whole, if not in details. The story can be compared with poems in which the same rhymes are constantly repeated. Historian Margaret Macmillan believes that the 2014 year contains quite a few frightening parallels with the 1914 year.

At the beginning of the 20 century, then just-mechanized armies killed millions of people on the battlefields of the war that broke out in the Balkans. More than 60 million soldiers from five continents participated in it. Almost every sixth of them died, millions returned home disabled.



The formal reason for the start of World War I was the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand. Now there is neither the Austro-Hungarian Empire, nor the archdukes, but the events in the Middle East may well be the modern equivalent of the Sarajevo assassination.

Now, according to Mrs. Macmillan, who is not alone in this opinion, the Middle East is quite suitable for the role of the modern “Balkans”. If Iran gets a nuclear bomb, then the nuclear arms race will begin in the region. The already restless Middle East will turn into a barrel of gunpowder, which can at any moment from the slightest spark take off into the air and destroy everything around.

“History does not exactly repeat itself,” writes Margaret Macmillan in an essay for the Brookings Institution, one of America’s leading research institutions, “but today's Middle East is frighteningly similar to the Balkans a century ago. A very similar mixture of toxic nationalism threatens to drag the United States, Turkey, Russia and Iran into conflict. Each of these countries in the region has its own interests and allies, which must be protected. ”

Leadership change

Professor McMillan draws attention to a whole string of other parallels between 1914 and 2014 over the years. Modern Islamic terrorists, in her deep conviction, are like two peas in a pod like revolutionaries and anarchists who have committed many murders in the name of philosophy that allowed to take the lives of other people for the sake of a better life, ideal, in their understanding, of the world.

In 1914, Germany was on the rise and challenged the main power of the time, Britain. Today’s parallel is the rivalry between the United States and China.


The changes of one world superpower in another in the history of mankind almost always were turbulent periods filled with upheavals. It has always been this way and that will probably be so in the future. Suffice it to say that at the end of the 20s of the last century, Washington was developing plans for a war with ... the British Empire. The main place in them occupied the invasion of American troops in Canada. The White House at that time was almost certain of the conflict that would flare up during the change of the United Kingdom as a superpower.

Professor Macmillan, whose book about the First World War - “The War that Ends Peace” was published last year, believes that right-wing and nationalist sentiments are now increasing throughout the world. She points out that the same situation was on the eve of the First World War.

Islands of contention

Another hot spot, which may well, if necessary, replace the Middle East if the Palestinians there suddenly agree with the Israelis, and Iran calms the West over its nuclear program, is now the Far East. In China and Japan, patriotic and nationalistic sentiments are increasingly intensifying. They are provoked by disputes due to uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, which are called Diaoyuo in Celestial, and Senkaku in the Land of the Rising Sun.

"The growth of China's military spending and the rapid construction of the naval fleetMargaret Macmillan writes, “It gives American strategists reason to believe that Beijing intends to challenge America as a Pacific superpower.” Now we clearly see the arms race between the major world powers in the region. The Wall Street Journal has information from very reliable sources that the Pentagon is developing plans for a war with China just in case. ”

Without any particular risk of being mistaken, it can be assumed that exactly the same plans are being developed at the General Staff of the PLA.

The situation in the Far East is also complicated by the treaty on mutual protection in the event of an attack, which exists between the United States and Japan. In 2012, Washington confirmed to Tokyo that it extends to the Senkaku Islands. In November last year, Beijing unilaterally expanded the air safety zone to include the airspace above the disputed atolls. A few days later, two B-52 American bomber flew over the Senkaku Islands, as if throwing a glove to China.

“It is tempting to compare today's relations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China,” writes Margaret Macmillan, with the relations of intense rivalry that existed a hundred years ago between Germany and Great Britain.

Professor Macmillan also points to the growing irritation and anxiety among Americans that Chinese investment in America is causing. In China, for their part, complain that Washington treats Beijing as a second-class country.

Dangerous complacency

Another parallel, to which the British historian draws attention, is the deeply rooted, now all over the planet, erroneous, in her opinion, thought that a full-scale war between the main world powers in the 21 century is impossible after such a long period of peace. Exactly the same mood of tranquility and serenity reigned, she points, a hundred years ago.

“Now, just as then,” Margaret Macmillan doesn’t doubt, “the confident step of globalization put us to sleep and inspired a false sense of security. The one hundredth anniversary of World War 1914 of the year should make us seriously think about our vulnerability to mistakes, sudden catastrophes and pure accidents.

Instead of plotting and then taking a long time to deal with one-by-one crises, it is time to recall and analyze the terrible lessons of a century ago. I would like to hope that world leaders with our help will naturally think about how they will be able to work together to build a solid international order. ”
Author:
Originator:
http://expert.ru/2014/01/13/1914-2014/?partner=988462
33 comments
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  1. saag
    saag 20 February 2014 07: 58
    +4
    Well, in this case, it remains to wait for 2017 :-)
    1. ikken
      ikken 20 February 2014 08: 13
      +2
      God forbid, the world will not stand another 17th year.
      1. Canep
        Canep 20 February 2014 09: 31
        +12
        Quote: ikken
        God forbid, the world will not stand another 17th year.

        The world must change dramatically if it wants to survive. Today, the main goal of the vast majority of the world's population is money. People often ruin their health and the health of loved ones for the sake of these pieces of paper.
        And as life shows, they can depreciate sharply, as happened in Kazakhstan.
  2. Avenich
    Avenich 20 February 2014 08: 19
    +13
    Yes, information war is a delicate matter. More recently, we were diligently intimidated by the ozone hole, then by global warming. The links went to very super-duper reliable sources from the Cambridge Institute in particular. And now, more and more often, the Arabs and Chinese are trying to present them as a kind of heavenly fireball that will destroy the "civilized world". To speak of an imminent world war "which will destroy everything" when it is already underway is stupid, with all due respect to the "group of English scientists". But to insert a phrase, like by the way, about the need to establish a "new world order" is already such a bold hint. Taking into account, the truth is that the last wars are just going for the redivision of the world and the establishment of a new world order.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. ABV
      ABV 20 February 2014 09: 32
      +6
      Quote: Avenich
      But to insert a phrase, like by the way, about the need to establish a "new world order" is already such a bold hint. Taking into account, the truth is that the last wars are just going for the redivision of the world and the establishment of a new world order.

      That's right, now, probably, even small children understand that wars do not just start and nothing will catch fire from one or two shots or terrorist attacks if no one is interested in this. Wars have always started at the request of political groups of influence and always with the assistance of large "capital" ...
    3. saber1357
      saber1357 21 February 2014 00: 18
      +2
      The article, to put it mildly, was written by a clinical idiot or an inveterate bastard (I mean the notorious creature labeled "Margaret Macmillan", our S. Manukov simply repeats it like a tape recorder, without any analysis). Just listen attentively, "Humanity is in serious danger of repeating the mistakes that have begun." That is, "Humanity made mistakes due to which the 1st world war began ...". That is, general humanity, you know, blacks in Africa, Indians in India - that all made mistakes and ... Although it is clear that there is no humanity, but a number of scumbags from three European madhouses and one overseas regional committee. We conclude: the author seeks to cover up these scumbags and smear the guilt on everyone. This can be done either by a complete idiot or an outright fascist.
  3. Shurale
    Shurale 20 February 2014 08: 19
    +4
    Humanity is in grave danger of repeating the mistakes that resulted in the outbreak of the First World War, said authoritative historian and Margaret Macmillan professor at the University of Cambridge.


    History does not repeat - history repeats.
    Nothing happens, even frogs do not jump suddenly, but for some reason.

    And I’ll also say: IF STARS ARE IGNITED IN THE SKY - THIS MEANS IT NEEDS
    1. 123dv
      123dv 20 February 2014 11: 17
      +1
      4 The race passes, and the race comes, and the earth abides forever.
      5 The sun rises, and the sun sets, and hurries to its place where it rises.
      6 The wind goes south, and goes north, whirls, whirls in its course, and the wind returns to its circles.
      7 All rivers flow into the sea, but the sea does not overflow: to the place where the rivers flow, they return to flow again.

      Ecclesiastes, chapter 1.

      So it happened, every 100 years they come to fight with us. Like waves of tides, they roll onto our cliff, but have no power to flood it. And go away, humiliated, so without learning anything ....
      Will we be able this time?
      Ah! In the most beautiful way. As the respected comrade saag writes below.
  4. saag
    saag 20 February 2014 08: 47
    +4
    Quote: ikken
    God forbid, the world will not stand another 17th year.

    Perfectly withstands
  5. FunkschNNX
    FunkschNNX 20 February 2014 09: 07
    +3
    They were looking for volunteers on Mars, to get them out of here, perhaps not even to see stupid and thieving politicians, greedy and unprincipled capitalists, etc. evil spirits. As the poet said: "Stop the Earth, I will go down."
  6. raz78
    raz78 20 February 2014 09: 36
    +2
    Is a third world possible? I think that yes, and nuclear weapons may cease to be a deterrent, during the second world chemical and bacteriological weapons, after all, no one dared to use them.
    1. Landwarrior
      Landwarrior 20 February 2014 11: 25
      0
      Quote: raz78
      during the second world chemical and bacteriological weapons, after all, no one dared to use it.

      Why? The Japanese used in the 1930s and during WWII. Against the Red Army, and against the Chinese. Detachment 731 hi
      And so, not on the battlefield, the Germans quite so actively used "Cyclone-B".
      1. poccinin
        poccinin 20 February 2014 11: 42
        0
        The Germans wanted to use chemical weapons, but the intelligence reported comrade STALIN.nu and the leader said: "WELL, IF THAT. DON'T BE OFFENSE TOV HITLER,"
        1. Landwarrior
          Landwarrior 20 February 2014 11: 53
          +1
          Yes, I heard something like that. This warning would sound especially funny in the 41st, when our bombers still reached Berlin lol
        2. The comment was deleted.
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. alexsey7777
      alexsey7777 20 February 2014 11: 26
      +1
      Come on? The Japanese secretly tested bacteria samples on the Chinese, but the truth did not reach mass use.
    4. domiemon
      domiemon 21 February 2014 06: 00
      0
      If we talk about chemical weapons, then during the Great Patriotic War the Germans used chlorine against Adzhimushkaya defenders in the Crimea.
  7. Landwarrior
    Landwarrior 20 February 2014 09: 50
    +4
    China doesn’t get to anyone, they have too many internal contradictions and, despite their economic power, their production is very vulnerable. While they are being supplied with resources, there is no need for them to make a mess. hi
  8. brainkiller
    brainkiller 20 February 2014 09: 51
    +3
    and you just thought so much dough is invested in the army now? =) The similarity of these historical turns has surfaced in articles since 2008, the beginning of something large-scale is a matter of time. Or maybe it has already begun in Ukraine, just we can’t even imagine such a development
  9. Alex
    Alex 20 February 2014 10: 07
    +6
    Macmillan collected everything, both the Middle East and the Far, but didn’t notice Ukraine’s powder keg, the wick of which was already set on fire, but if a civil war starts there, it’s unlikely that neighbors can sit aside.
  10. 222222
    222222 20 February 2014 10: 55
    +2
    At night there was a special edition of the program "Sunday evening with Solovyov" (1 TV channel Russia) on the situation in Ukraine.
    Crimean representative Vladimir Konstantinov: "This is not a Ukrainian war. This is a war with the Russian world."
    Nikonov - the question is: "what will the geopolitical map of the world look like in the next years, in the 21st century"
    Kulikov proposed a solution to the crisis - the President should issue a decree "On building the constitutional order in the country" with two components:
    - by political measures ..
    - military-technical measures ...
    1. cumastra1
      cumastra1 20 February 2014 15: 36
      0
      I am sure that if such riots were going on under the slogan of joining Russia, the golden eagle would have already received military weapons and some sort of order "kill as much as possible"
    2. cumastra1
      cumastra1 20 February 2014 15: 36
      0
      I am sure that if such riots were going on under the slogan of joining Russia, the golden eagle would have already received military weapons and some sort of order "kill as much as possible"
  11. 222222
    222222 20 February 2014 11: 08
    +2
    When our presidents and oligarchs understand the principle of "Broom" (or in English "divide and rule")
    We were torn to pieces in 1991 - they gave some power and their own "throne", others made billionaires, and the bulk of the people was lowered below the plinth. A terrible chasm between the first and the last ... This is probably the main internal threat of the new young states ... But, gentlemen, "free cheese is only in a mousetrap" .. The mousetrap consists in disuniting the Russian world in this way, pushing brother against brother, weakening or destroying each new state formation and introducing the remnants into the sphere of their strategic and economic national interests ..
    To survive, you must again become a broom .. Separate twigs easily break one at a time .....
  12. Sergey7311
    Sergey7311 20 February 2014 11: 14
    +1
    All these conclusions are just the personal point of view of the author. None of the nodes of the contradictions, quite likely, will become that powder cellar that will blow up the world of a new world massacre ... However, such a pattern as the beginning of the century from the great war, characteristic of our state, leads to sad thoughts. The beginning of the XVII century. - Troubles and Polish intervention, XVIII century. - The Northern War, XIX century. - Napoleonic Wars and the Patriotic War of 1812, XX century. - The First World and Civil ... However, maybe the Romanovs were so unlucky ...
  13. inkass_98
    inkass_98 20 February 2014 12: 04
    +1
    History moves in a spiral, i.e. everything is repeated, only in new conditions and on a different level (that’s how we were taught when I was getting the wrong Soviet education now).
    By the way, Sarajevo’s shot of G. Principle at Archduke Ferdinand was by no means the cause of the WWI, but the reason. Although they killed him quite successfully, his relatives, Austrians, did not like him. Being married to Czech, he was planning, taking the throne of Austria-Hungary, to create a triune monarchy of Austria-Hungary-Czech Republic, which the aristocracy in Vienna and Budapest did not want. Well it is, retreat. lol
  14. 222222
    222222 20 February 2014 12: 07
    0
    Sergey7311 SU Today, 11:14 All these conclusions .. This is the pattern-follow the handles of the main manipulator .. the patterns of the US economy and the actions of its Fed .. the collapse of the dollar is war .. the collapse of the economy is war and 1 and 2 world reasons came from there
  15. Tr-slava
    Tr-slava 20 February 2014 12: 34
    -2
    They want to tear Russia apart, to divide it in parts and use it as a raw material appendage. Here, after the collapse of the country, a world war will begin, for resources. The task is to prevent our country from dying. But nothing good shines with such leaders ...
  16. Evkur
    Evkur 20 February 2014 13: 20
    0
    Everything is really repeated, the German leadership knew that our emperor stood up for the Slavs in the Balkans and raced !!! and now the repetition of the civil war in Ukraine and again our President to choose to get involved or not. What do you think fits in?
    1. anomalocaris
      anomalocaris 20 February 2014 14: 58
      0
      I absolutely did not know. To be honest, it all started with our general mobilization. The funniest thing was that there was NOTHING for us and the Germans to share!
  17. anomalocaris
    anomalocaris 20 February 2014 14: 54
    0
    My deepest wish to Prof. Macmillan is concerned about his sex life. For about the origins of the First World War, it carries outright nonsense.
  18. Peacemaker
    Peacemaker 20 February 2014 16: 25
    0
    There were always wars, only in the last decades a relatively peaceful time was established, but the military’s opinion was already expressed on the site that they are preparing, preparing for something large-scale ... / for the people will rise against the people, and the kingdom to the kingdom; and there will be smooth seas and earthquakes in places; / Bible Matt. 24: 7 The innocent always suffer during the war ... God save our sinful souls!
  19. Prometheus
    Prometheus 20 February 2014 18: 14
    +1
    Let's wait. Hope in God, and keep the powder dry.
  20. parus2nik
    parus2nik 20 February 2014 19: 41
    +1
    seriously think about our vulnerability to mistakes, sudden disasters and pure coincidences.
    Well, yes, G. Principle, played with a gun, and he accidentally shot at the Archduke and his wife .. and so 5 times .. PMV began not by chance, they wanted it, they waited, they prepared it ..
  21. Leshka
    Leshka 20 February 2014 19: 57
    +1
    I think that at the moment Ukraine can become a bone of contention because the interests of Russia and NATO converge there
  22. saag
    saag 20 February 2014 21: 40
    0
    Quote: Evkur
    What do you think fits in?

    No, it will not get involved
    1. Evkur
      Evkur 21 February 2014 01: 31
      0
      Argument please?
  23. Asan Ata
    Asan Ata 21 February 2014 02: 02
    0
    There are and always will be parallels in history, because people do not change. Always the greedy and the deceitful will be in power, they will never let us know that we are already the chosen victim, stability will always be imaginary. Perhaps one thing calms down - "these" have learned to negotiate, the division is already underway, for the most part, hidden, latent, without sabers and machine guns. Well, flaws, like Syria and they happen. It is sad that the best part of humanity, the one that creates, is not decisive. Probably, the desire of this best part to create a correct and just world should not be by reading newspapers or watching the news, but consolidated around the world. Roughly speaking, the international: "We are ours, we will build a new world." True, it already happened. what
  24. Gav-111
    Gav-111 21 February 2014 05: 28
    0
    Humanity is in grave danger of repeating the mistakes that resulted in the outbreak of the First World War, said authoritative historian and Margaret Macmillan professor at the University of Cambridge.

    "Dear" professor, this is not a mistake, but a well thought out operation.