Events in the Middle East. The reasons

The recent events in the Middle East, which have called the Arab Spring seem to us today not entirely clear. However, the analysis of events becomes much easier if we take into account past events and the fact that all this is being done with expectation for the future. Therefore, first you need to know the forecast, what will happen in the future. Recall the events and facts. And immediately it becomes clear who benefits.

IEA (World Energy Agency) Forecast for 2013:

IEA Forecast from 2013 year
China will soon become the largest importer of oil.

The US is confidently moving towards energy self-sufficiency.

The United States will increase exports of energy-intensive products: the chemical industry will be the most striking example of the close relationship between industrial growth and energy prices. The European Union and Japan, on the contrary, will face a fall in exports, as a result of which they will lose up to one-third of their total share on the world market.

Japanese and European industrial consumers pay on average for electricity twice as much as their counterparts in the United States. And even in China, industry tariffs are almost twice the American level.

The rising price of oil, which reaches $ 128 per barrel in our Forecast to 2035 (at 2012 prices), will ensure the development of these new resources. But no other country will be able to achieve the same from the success in the development and production of oil from hard-to-see reservoirs, like the USA, which due to this will become the world's largest oil producer. Increasing the level of oil and condensate production from hard-to-reach formations will fill the growing gap between global oil demand, which will increase by 14 mb / d and reach 101 mb / d to 2035, and traditional oil, which will fall to 65 mb / d.

The Middle East, the only major producer of cheap oil, will remain the center of world oil production in the long run. The role of OPEC countries in meeting global oil demand will temporarily decline over the next ten years due to increased oil production in the United States, but by the middle of 2020-s, total production in non-OPEC countries will start to fall - most of the increase in world raw material supply will be provided by countries in the Middle East. About 80% of proven and probable oil reserves in the world is controlled by government agencies or national oil companies.

North America’s need to import crude oil will almost disappear by 2035, and this region will become a key exporter of petroleum products. Asia will become the center of the world oil market.

IEA forecast from 2012 year:

IEA Forecast from 2012 year

The future of the world oil market depends on the success of Iraq in the revival of its oil industry. Oil production in Iraq will exceed 6 million barrels per day in 2020 year and 8 million barrels per day in 2035 year. Iraq is becoming a key supplier to the rapidly growing Asian markets, mainly to China, and by 2030 years, the second largest global exporter of oil, ahead of Russia.

Global energy demand will increase by more than a third over the period before 2035, with 60% of this growth coming from China, India and the Middle East.

Natural gas is the only fossil fuel for which global demand is growing in all scenarios, but forecasts change depending on the region. There is a significant increase in demand in China, India and the Middle East: an active government support policy helps boost consumption in China from about 130 billion m3 in 2011 to 545 billion m3 in 2035.

The revival in the US oil and gas production, due to new production technologies, opening up access to oil resources from low-permeability reservoirs and shale gas, stimulates economic activity in the country, as the reduction in gas and electricity prices gives the industry a competitive advantage and changes North America’s position in world energy trade. It is predicted that by about 2020, the United States will become the world's largest oil producer (ahead of Saudi Arabia until the middle of the 2020-s). As a result, oil imports to the US continue to decline to the point that by about 2030, North America is turning into a net exporter of oil.

Nearly 1,3 billion people still do not have access to electricity, and 2,6 billion still cook food in hazardous conditions. Ten countries — four in developing Asia and six in sub-Saharan Africa — account for two-thirds of people without electricity, and just three countries — India, China and Bangladesh — account for more than half of the population forced to cook using installations and fuels for life.

About water:

Water demand for energy production will grow twice as fast as energy demand. Water is needed for energy production: in the generation of electricity; during the extraction, transportation and processing of oil, gas and coal; irrigation for crops used for biofuel production. According to our estimates, water extraction for energy production in 2010 amounted to 583 billion m3. Of this number, water consumption (i.e., the volume of water withdrawn but not returned to the source) was 66 billion m 3. The forecast of water consumption growth by 85% for the period up to 2035 of the year reflects a shift towards more intensive use of water in the production of electricity and the expansion of biofuels production. Water is becoming increasingly important as a criterion for evaluating the economic feasibility of energy projects, as competition for water resources increases as a result of population growth and economic activity. In some regions, restrictions on water consumption already affect the reliability of existing enterprises, and this will lead to additional costs. In some cases, they may jeopardize the viability of projects. The energy sector in diverse geographic areas is vulnerable to possible water scarcity.

Libya:

1 XYNUMX XYDYTYROYZYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY OF reserves of 70 cubic kilometer of water. These vast reserves offer almost unlimited rates of water for the Libyan people. In the deep desert of Libyan desert, it has been discovered that it has been discovered in the 35,000s.
Nubian_Sandstone_Aquifer_System
www.thewaterchannel.tv
Great_Muddle_River

Muammar Gaddafi presented this project as a gift to the third world and said to those celebrating: "After this, the USA’s threats against Libya will double. The United States will do everything under a different pretext, but the real reason will be to stop this achievement in order to leave the people of Libya oppressed."
Economy_Livii

And they did:
It was a war in the United States of America when it came to the air force. At the press conference of the NNRN, NATO, there were multiple rocket launchers that showed up at the press conference on BM-22
Great_Man-Made_River

The operation and further development of the largest irrigation project in the world - the Great Man-made River, as well as the construction project “New Dubai”, under which during 10 years it was planned to invest about $ 500 billion, was under threat.
Consequences of war_Livia

Achievable costs in 2013 range from 0.5 to 1 US $ / cubic meters (2 to 4 US $ / kgal). The cost of untreated fresh water in the world can reach 5 US $ / cubic meter
Desalination

Top-10 countries in terms of installed sea water desalination capacity:

Saudi Arabia and Jordan also used water from Disi:
Like the Jordanians, the Saudis already draw water for drinking and agriculture from the Disi, which call the Saq aquifer.
news.nationalgeographic.com

However, in 2009 it turned out that the water is radioactive:
In 2009 Water was tested from the radion-37 and the radium-226 isotopes that it exceeded international standards for drinking water. Some of the water tested exceeded standards by 228%. This isotopes has been linked to bone cancer and leukemia.
Disi_Water_Conveyance_Project

2) Gaddafi on 90% funded the creation of an African satellite (for telecommunications). Prior to that, many African countries had to rent satellites from Intelsat:
This joint project is expected to depend on international satellite networks such as Intelsat.
Regional_African_Satellite_Communication_Organization

3) With many other countries, Gaddafi wanted to switch to the Golden Dinar in international settlements.
Gold_Dinar
The cross was put on the plans to put into circulation the Libyan gold dinar, which Muammar Gaddafi was an active supporter of the promotion.
Consequences of war_Livia


Iran and Iraq:

1) Iran opened a commodity exchange, where oil and oil products are traded for national currencies.
At the same time, the ambassador indicated that Tehran would use any means to abandon the use of the American dollar. "Such large oil producers as Iran and Russia should try to free the world from the slavery of the American dollar," he said.
top.rbc.ru
Iran_Mercantile_Exchange

Note that it will be the case when it comes to a basket of currencies.
Iranian_Oil_Bourse

2) Iran, together with Iraq, is planning to increase exports against the plans of OPEC (30 million barrels per day), which will lead to a decrease in oil prices.
Iran hopes to be able to quickly increase production from the current level of 2,7 million barrels per day. Iraq also plans to increase production next year by 1 million barrels per day to 4 million.
"We will reach 4 million barrels per day, even if oil prices fall to $ 20," Zangane said.
“You know what will happen if prices fall to $ 20 per barrel? You know how many countries will have to stop production, including shale oil, oil from the sands of Canada and subsalt sources. All this will be lost,” said Saudi Oil Minister Arabian Ali Al-Naimi.
www.finmarket.ru

The first sanctions against Iran will abolish January 20:
ru.euronews.com

Before the conflict, the daily oil production in Libya was 1,6 million barrels per day, then in the middle of September, only 200 thousand were mined, that is, production fell by 8 times. The result was a spike in oil prices, with the result that OPEC’s base oil barrel price reached its 2,5 summer high. By the beginning of 2013, the production level was not restored and amounted to no more than 1,4 million barrels per day.
Consequences of war_Livia

3) Gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan.
Pakistan will be able to receive up to 7,6 million cubic feet of gas daily by the middle of 750 through a pipeline worth $ 2015 billion, which will allow the country to overcome the growing energy crisis.
ru.reuters.com


Syria:

1) In 2009, Assad refused to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to build a gas pipeline through Syria to Turkey, and then connect it to the Nabuko gas pipeline. Instead, Iran, Iraq and Syria decided to make their pipeline to Lebanon, and further along the Mediterranean Sea to Europe. Now, even if Qatar decided to build Iraq, bypassing Syria, they still get a competitor.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq.
Qatar-Turkey_pipeline

Pipeline running from South Pars to Damascus.
It is also an alternative to the Qatar-Turkey pipeline, which has been proposed by the United States of America, Jordan, Syria and Turkey.
Iran-Iraq-Syria_pipeline
www.theguardian.com

Secretary-General of the President of the United States President of the United States.
www.washingtonpost.com

There is an opinion (from the US) that the Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline is a linden, and is needed only for a reason, so as not to build a Qatari version. And all this is to protect our Gazprom in Europe from competitors, because the cost of Qatari gas will be cheaper than ours ..

2) 14 oil reservoirs found in Syrian territorial waters. Geological studies were conducted by the Norwegian company Ancis. Al-Shwaibi cited data that “only four oil fields - from the Lebanese border to the port of Baniyas - can provide a level of production commensurate with the Kuwaiti indicators”. He predicted that oil production in Syria could be 6-7 million barrels per day over time. It is possible that in terms of gas reserves the country will be in fourth place in the world.
ru.euronews.com


Based on all this, we can draw the following conclusions:

Turkey wants to build a gas pipeline through its territory, instead of Lebanon. Qatar wants a gas pipeline through Syria to Europe, and without competitors. Saudi Arabia needs to prevent a decline in oil prices due to the ambitions of Iran and Iraq. The USA needs its governments to control the region before they start exporting. To control the volume of OPEC exports and not only (respectively, to maintain high prices), currency (no Golden dinars), and sales markets that they themselves will soon need. Control the Strait of Hormuz near Iran and fresh water in Libya. Do not allow the sale of oil on the Iranian stock exchange for nat. currency, especially China. Do not let Iran build a gas pipeline to Pakistan.

Comments

[FC SKIF]

Type in the search engine "Great Israel from the Nile to the Euphrates. Interesting Jewish maps will emerge. To create like a state, they provoke wars in the region, set peoples and confessions against each other. I wrote about this in" What do they want from Syria, "and "Kurdistan is like Poland a century ago."

[Aaron Zawi]

While I see how Israel is reducing its territory, due to a compromise with the Arabs.

[mirag2]

But from the outside it is seen that there is a return of the conquered areas ...
Moreover, the light return.

[sledgehammer102]

Quote: mirag2

But from the outside it is seen that there is a return of the conquered areas ...

Exactly

[Alexander Romanov]

Quote: FC Skif

Type in the search engine "Great Israel from the Nile to the Euphrates.

This is not real !!! And with regards to Krta, there are enough artists everywhere. Japanese, Kitaytsy, and sometimes we draw such cards that you wonder

[And Us Rat]

Quote: Alexander Romanov

This is not real !!! And with regards to Krta, there are enough artists everywhere. Japanese, Kitaytsy, and sometimes we draw such cards that you wonder

Well, what to take from fellow conspiracy theorists, whom logic has banned? They are sure that we are sleeping and see how another couple of tens of millions of parasites to put on their neck We and the current million are too many, they almost do not pay taxes, they build where and how they want - they don’t give a damn about all the laws, they don’t bring anything useful into society, and in the queue for the distribution of freebies from the social sector, they are always the first - and with whole clans, and with childhood know only the word "GIVE". There was a sensible thought - to give them to the Palestinians, along with their villages and land (to hell with it), but no - they began to scream, "help the world community, they say, evil Jews drive us from their necks, freebies and freelots are deprived of the Israeli taxpayer, injustice!!!" So gentlemen, conspiracy theorists - do not impose on us your "Sluggish Israel" - even if they pay extra - we will not take it, we need it - like a hare's fifth leg ...

[mirag2]

Here is the map.
Link to the source?
http://www.kp.ru/daily/25704.4/904974/

[Alexander Romanov]

Quote: mirag2

Here is the map.
Link to the source?

Look, what a kindergarten. You can draw a map of the kind you like on the net, you can draw any card yourself, but that doesn’t mean that it’s real. Natsik from Ukraine draw cards there and Sich belongs to them, but who will give them. Russian cards look, so there all Europe Russia.

[FC SKIF]

Some "cards" remain nonsense that blinded them, while others are a visible part of the big plan in action.

[Alexander Romanov]

Quote: FC Skif

and others are the visible part of the big plan in action.

Well, here is the map that has around 300 million Muslims around Israel. Explain to me how, at least theoretically, Israel can bring this to life?

[FC SKIF]

Sunnis will kill Shiites and vice versa. Then the survivors bleed again. finding a certain inner protch. Then repeat the procedure. Then repeat again

[And Us Rat]

Quote: Alexander Romanov

Quote: FC Skif

and others are the visible part of the big plan in action.

Well, here is the map that has around 300 million Muslims around Israel. Explain to me how, at least theoretically, Israel can bring this to life?

Alexander, well, since when does conspiracy theory need logical reasoning ??? The answer is obvious - "With the help of a super-secret psychotropic Masonic wunderwafe \ aliens \ Illuminati \ occult rituals \ voodoo magic \ dancing with a tambourine" (underline the necessary)

[mirag2]

Yes, this is not the fruit of the work of anti-Semites, but the idea of ​​orthodox preachers from the promised land. (In particular, a certain Abraham (Avrom) Shmulevich political scientist and rabbi.)
Based on materials from the correspondent Daria Aslamova.

[atalef]

Quote: mirag2

Yes, this is not the fruit of the work of anti-Semites, but the idea of ​​orthodox preachers from the promised land (in particular, a certain Abraham (Avrom) Shmulevich political scientist and rabbi.).

Shmulevich - who is this? or do you think rabbis in Israel (a rabbi in general is a type of Orthodox priest - and nothing more) In Russia, priests rule - no, here we do not. And what about the rabbis, that the priests sometimes give such nonsense - that it’s a marvel to them that everything is in order.

Quote: mirag2

Based on materials from the correspondent Daria Aslamova.

and who is this? Another expert on the realities of BV?

Daria Mikhailovna Aslamova (8 of September 1969, Khabarovsk [1]) - Soviet and Russian journalist, special correspondent of the newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda [2]. The first woman in Russia is a war correspondent, author of The Adventures of a Mean Girl.

Is this the one who wrote how half of the deputies sucked?

[alone]

)) there are tens of thousands of such cards)) and they are nothing serious. All this is nonsense.

[Ram chandra]

That's right - the strongest survives in nature. In this case, the Jews are definitely smarter than the cunning and therefore stronger than their neighbors. If it weren’t for the world community, Israel would have long owned all these lands.

[Anna_Wong]

Still they would not be strong and educated, with such and such reparations:

in September 1952, and West Germany paid Israel a sum of 3 billion marks over the next fourteen years; 450 million marks were paid to the World Jewish Congress. The payments were made to the State of Israel as the heir to those victims who had no surviving family. The money was invested in the country's infrastructure, and played an important role in establishing the economy of the new state. The reparations would become a decisive part of Israel's income, comprising as high as 87.5% of the state income in 1956. (Reparations were the majority of government income in Israel, in 1956 it was 87,5% of total income)

In 2009, Israeli Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz announced that he will demand a further € 450 million to € 1 billion in reparations from Germany on behalf of some 30,000 Israeli forced labor survivors. Israel has also sought large discounts on the purchase of two German-built MEKO warships. Israel has also received two Dolphin-class nuclear-arms-capable submarines for free from Germany, along with substantial discounts on two others, and has two more on order for a total of six as of December 2012.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reparations_Agreement_between_Israel_and_West_Germa
ny

In 1978, after 25 years of payments, the total Federal Republic of Germany payments paid to 53 billion DeutschMarks. Payments from some programs continue to this day.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claims_Conference

[FC SKIF]

I'm not anestend

[Pointer]

There about the reparations that the German government paid to Israel. About 53 billion German marks.

[atalef]

Quote: Pointer

There about the reparations that the German government paid to Israel. About 53 billion German marks.

Already 53? Well, wait a week or two, maybe someone digs 530

The reparation agreement between Germany and Israel (German: Luxemburger Abkommen, Hebrew הסכם השִׁילּוּמִים) - was signed on 10 of September 1952 of the year [1] and entered into force on 27 of March 1953 of the year [2]. By agreement, Germany was to pay Israel compensation for the use of slave labor during the Holocaust and compensate for the loss of Jewish property.
On 10 of September 1952, an agreement was signed under which Germany was to pay in commodity form Israel 3 billion marks over 14 years. Funds were invested in fixed assets, playing an important role in the formation of the Israeli economy. Payments were completed in 1965 year.[3] In addition, 450 million marks (110 million dollars) were paid to the “Conference”.

[Pointer]

I advise you to familiarize yourself with the links presented above.

[Anna_Wong]

A cunning Jew, but have you forgotten about direct payments to Jews in a heap of programs, claims and payments for which continue to this day? Source for whom I brought?
And since you're so cunning, I’ll add:

Israel has also received two Dolphin-class nuclear-arms-capable submarines for free from Germany, along with substantial discounts on two others, and has two more on order for a total of six as of December 2012.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reparations_Agreement_between_Israel_and_West_Germa
ny

[Leejoys]

They are small enough to provoke something without looking at the owners.

[mirag2]

Well, yes, from this point of view, of course, the interests of the countries-bigwigs crossed here.
I just want to add something, but what about Venezuela? With the largest proven oil reserves in the world?
I saw a map of oil producing countries (on an Israeli resource, by the way). Venezuela does not indicate there that it has oil ...
Regarding Syria, Israel claims to the Golan with water sources.
And Qatar for some reason decided not to sell gas to Europe (is it going to China?).
National currency is yes, clearly one of the catalysts at the time.
As for shale gas production, and especially oil, it will be available in the United States a little, the calculation is for export and application of this technology in other countries (like Ukraine, where mineral resources have already been sold, along with the water needed for hydraulic fracturing, bypassing the desire of local authorities, through Rada).

[user]

From this point of view, the war is only just beginning

[Stiletto]

Salvage is the cause of many, if not all evils of this world.

[HollyGremlin]

By the year 35, oil will begin to run out in Russia, and in the United States it will end earlier (by 30 years).
Therefore, our rearmament is calculated around that time.

[colonel manuch]

Survived! They don’t mention us at all, you’re even sad to see if.

[Anna_Wong]

Where without us:

Syria's rationale for rejecting the Qatar proposal was said to be "to protect the interests of [its] Russian ally, which is Europe's top supplier of natural gas
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-Iraq-Syria_pipeline

[AVV]

Quote: Stiletto

Salvage is the cause of many, if not all evils of this world.

Not only loot, but also minerals, resources for which the Anglo-Saxons are ready to fight, almost with the whole world !!!

[Arhj]

The most interesting thing in the Middle East will begin if the United States is really completely reoriented to the Pacific region. With the departure of a strong player, we will get several players of equal strength in the region, each of which does not digest each other. And judging by how actively attempts are being made to create alliances and arm everyone who has something to arm themselves with, the threat of a major war is very real.
It’s interesting, how are the most boisterous dwarfs of the bay going to survive when their older brothers (USA and Arabia) have their throats? This is not a Russian ambassador to beat at the airport.