Military Review

Afghanistan and Central Asia: Challenges after the 2014 Year and the Interests of Russia - report

32

Russia should in every possible way avoid any unilateral forceful involvement in intra-Afghan affairs. One of the invited participants, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation, candidate historical Sciences, Mikhail Konarovsky. The conference was organized by the Alexander Knyazev Public Foundation; Afghan Center "Ariana"; Faculty of International Relations KazNU named after al-Farabi (Kazakhstan); Center for German Studies; IA REGNUM Eastern Bureau; Information Agency "InfoRos"; Internet portal "Radiotochka" (Kazakhstan), Internet portal Zonakz.net.


REGNUM, as a conference partner, publishes the full report presented by the author.

After the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001, the world community showed excessive optimism, believing that the Afghan crisis was finally resolved. However, everything went according to a different scenario, although, in principle, it was precisely such a development of events that we are seeing now and could be expected based on the experience of the historical realities of this country. The more than a decade-long stay of foreign troops and massive external financial injections could not ensure the stable military-political and economic positions of the new government in Kabul and undermine the influence of its armed opponents. Having failed to reach the goal, NATO began the gradual withdrawal of contingents in NATO’s 2011 year, which should be completed by the end of the year’s 2014.

As this date approaches, the expert community intensifies the discussion of various scenarios of possible developments in the IRA and its impact on neighboring regions, primarily in Central Asia. The prevailing understanding is that without appeasement in this country and a withdrawal of the Afghan problem from the current impasse, it will be almost impossible to ensure stability and security in this part of the continent. The situation in Afghanistan after 2014 will have the most serious impact on the region, and to a much greater extent than that observed during the period of active presence of foreign troops in the country. With the recent intensification of activities in the northern enclaves of the Central Asian IRA associated with the Taliban military-political groupings, we can expect such activity to continue beyond the 2014 year. While it is difficult to predict how effective such an activity will be, however, the fact that it will take place is quite obvious.

The general situation in Afghanistan in the new configuration and the possible further destabilization of the situation in the country will inevitably (through Central Asia) affect Russia. The more radical the regime in Kabul is, the more negative such influence can become. An additional breeding ground for this may be the permanently increasing number of illegal migrants from Central Asia in the Russian Federation. Even now, recruitment of mercenaries and the creation of illegal centers for the dissemination of Islamist ideas of extremist content have become more frequent on Russian territory. At the same time, the theses that the observers sometimes allegedly deliberately exaggerate in Russia in such an attempt to secure additional influence in the region are sometimes sent by observers.

In the same context, it is possible to summarize several analysts' scenarios for the development of the situation in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of foreign troops. The most optimistic is the preservation of power by the current regime and its ability to ensure overall stability in the country. Such a development would certainly be the most desirable for Kabul and the entire regional and international community. Proponents of this position say about quite favorable foreign policy conditions for the implementation of this scenario, which are fundamentally different from the situation before the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1988 - 1989. In its favor, measures are also presented to stabilize the positions of the central government, including the formation of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). At the same time, it seems a somewhat superficial thesis that all these new conditions are supposedly capable of ensuring the ability of the ANSB to retain power in the country, since now they will fight for their survival. Among the military, especially the rank and file, there are hardly many principled supporters of the current government. Therefore, when, after 2014, the government in Kabul will be left alone with its opponents, the security forces will at least face a sharp weakening of their combat potential. Moreover, even now, despite the organizational and incentive measures taken by the government and foreign advisors, desertion remains one of the most serious problems of the ANSF, which sharply reduces their ability to independently control and ensure security in the country.

The process of national reconciliation is also significantly slipping. The warring parties remain at their inquiring positions. It is clear that the Taliban are not interested in negotiations and expect that after 2014, power in a large part of the territory of the IRA, one way or another, will fall under their control. At the same time, as in the period of “Mujahideen” confrontation with the PDPA, and now, the moral and political superiority remains on the side of the rebels. A powerful external factor supporting their movement is the growing potential of Islamic extremism and terrorism in the world, the Arab Spring, the continued growth of Islamization in Pakistan against the backdrop of the growing influence of the Pakistani Taliban on political issues in Islamabad. The main trend towards the “archaization” of Central Asia additionally forms a favorable and wider sub-regional environment.

Despite their disunity, the Taliban and in the future are unlikely to go to serious negotiations with Kabul (especially under the terms of the government about the cessation of hostilities, the recognition of the current Constitution of the country and its political system). On the other hand, the Taliban’s demands are also unacceptable for Kabul. Accordingly, the confrontation will continue. At the same time, the Kabul inquiry positions are dramatically weakened as a result of renewed in June of this year. direct contacts of Americans with representatives of the Taliban. The close interaction between the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban contributes to large-scale infiltration of militants across the Afghan-Pakistani border.

One of the most serious domestic political challenges to Afghanistan will remain an inter-ethnic problem against the background of a significant increase in self-awareness and political activity of national minorities over the past decades, which was largely promoted by more than ten years in power of the PDPA. As part of the search for options that would provide, if not a solution, then at least a certain decrease in the severity of interethnic relations, some analysts suggest a confederative structure of the country on the basis of national enclaves (north, center and extreme south-west - national minorities, the rest of the territory - Pashtuns). The implementation of such a scenario, however, would be extremely difficult, both because of the absence of clear boundaries in Afghanistan for each particular ethnic group, and politically. This could provoke a new round of civil war and push disintegration processes in a wider geopolitical space, which would lead to even greater destabilization in the region.

A particularly significant issue in the future will remain the fate of foreign aid to Afghanistan and its sources. Kabul urgently needs a "positive agenda", assistance in the implementation of which could be effective, including through multilateral programs. Such a mission could take the so-called. "Istanbul process". Launched in 2011 on the initiative of Kabul and Ankara, he set the task of combining the efforts of the IRA government and its neighbors in order to increase comprehensive cooperation in the field of security and economic development while recognizing the role of Afghanistan as the most important link between the countries of the region. The leading countries of the West have committed themselves to provide the process with all-round support, while remaining as if in the background. This line may be another confirmation that neither the United States nor its European allies are no longer interested in maintaining a leading role in Afghan affairs, seeking to shift the entire responsibility for the socio-economic development of the country to regional states while maintaining its military-political dominant in Afghanistan. However, no practical actions of the participants of the "process" on a joint basis are yet to be seen. At the same time, such influential neighbors of Afghanistan as Pakistan, India and Iran prefer to develop economic ties with Kabul, mainly at the bilateral level. The situation is similar in the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. At the same time, in the general political context, of all its members, only Russia openly identified with the prerequisites of Kabul for its dialogue with the Taliban.

The threat of the upcoming 2014 year of the new round of the Afghan crisis is evidenced by the permanently degrading situation in the IRA, the incessant armed sorties and terrorist acts of the Taliban. Manifestation of uncertainty and Washington in the crisis-free development of the situation in the country is evidenced by the abandonment of plans to reduce the total number of national security forces (ANSF) to 2015 thousand people after 228 and to save up to 2017 thousand people to 352. In the light of the upcoming new challenges, the US administration, interested in continuing cooperation with Russia, is searching for updated forms of cooperation with the Central Asian republics - members of the SCO and CSTO. At the same time, as in the early years of the Afghan campaign, from the American side such cooperation is seen not only through the prism of the tasks of logistical support for the withdrawal of NATO troops, but also in the interests of long-term monitoring of this sensitive region of Russia and China. For their part, the ruling elites of the Central Asian states also mean rationally using the situation in their own interests, including in dialogues with Moscow and Beijing. This line is particularly noticeable from Tashkent, which is actively encouraged by Washington, which is well aware of the special place of Uzbekistan in Central Asia, as well as in the structure of the Northern Distribution Network of NATO cargo transportation. This is also facilitated by the permanent desire of the RU to secure a privileged place in the north of Afghanistan, both through the ethnic factor and control over the main transport arteries, in the prospective expansion of which, with its leading role, it is very interested.

The United States pays serious attention to the Central Asian direction and dynamically developing Kazakhstan, which in the future can become the leading force in the region, including as a result of the growing image of Astana on the world stage. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which of the Central Asian IRA neighbors may be most vulnerable in case of aggravation of the situation south of their borders, are particularly sensitive to practical military cooperation with Washington. In addition to the optimistic, negative, but more realistic scenarios of developments in Afghanistan after 2014 are also considered. These include the ability to maintain only partial control of the central authorities over the territory of the country; the de facto geographical and political fragmentation of Afghanistan and the formation of several quasi-states on its territory; the general civil war of "all against all"; full return of the Taliban to power. Do not exclude the combination of these scenarios, as well as the emergence of some kind of third force with its slogans and political attitudes. It seems, however, that she will wear predominantly conservative - traditionalist features.

In this regard, most likely, one should be prepared for the most complex and complex scenarios on the background of the fact that the future regime in Kabul will be not only Islamic, but also Islamist. However, for the time being, one can only speculate about the degree of his conservatism and hostility towards everything that is not Islamic. Therefore, international solidarity and cooperation are needed on issues of principle related to the subsequent development of the situation in the IRA, which can only be partially achieved. In this context, the main thing that will be required from the regional and world community in any scenario of the development of the situation in this country is the political consensus that the new government in Kabul should not pose a destabilizing threat to the region. At the same time, if earlier the task of avoiding the creeping "Talibanization" from Afghanistan was in the interests of, first of all, the country's neighbors from the north, then recently this problem is becoming increasingly troubling and Islamabad - originally raised for Afghanistan, now the Taliban periodically threaten Pakistan’s stability . The ideas of “neutralizing” Afghanistan under the political guarantees of neighbors and world powers put forward in the same context to a certain extent echo the proposal of Russia (supported by the SCO countries) to return the country to neutral status, which was fixed in the 1964 constitution of the year. It seems that any future government of Afghanistan, even the most odious, in the foreign policy arena would benefit from proclaiming such a status.

Based on the lessons of the past, it is now important to finally clarify the further intentions of the US NATO in Afghanistan to alleviate the concerns that arise in Russia, China, and some other states. An important manifestation of the solidarity of the international community in the face of future challenges from the IRA could be further strengthening cooperation between the Russia-NATO Council. There are already positive examples of this: the Northern Distribution Network, the Trust Fund for the repair of helicopters), training of anti-terrorist personnel. A significant element could also be a certain institutionalization of interaction between the Alliance and the CSTO (which is supported by Moscow, but Brussels objects). At the same time, Moscow will have to decide how such cooperation should be matched with its well-known position on the unacceptability of a long stay of American servicemen in Afghanistan. At the same time, an independent line should be actively pursued to further strengthen the southern flank of the CSTO, raising its overall visible "profile" in the Central Asian direction (which, incidentally, has been observed recently). In the same vein, we should work on the further development of bilateral military ties with Uzbekistan. Even after the withdrawal of NATO troops, Afghanistan will remain a shaky zone of instability and contradictions for a long time, and involving the country in a matrix of regional economic cooperation will require considerable efforts from the global and regional community.

At the same time, regardless of the development of the situation in Afghanistan and around it after the 2014 year, Russia should in every way avoid any unilateral forceful involvement in intra-Afghan affairs. This would have the most negative strategic consequences for its national interests in general, and for internal stability in particular.
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  1. Canep
    Canep 9 October 2013 09: 03
    13
    You should not step on the same rake twice. That the Taliban will come back to power is unambiguous, as they say, "don't go to the grandmother." The Customs Union needs to strengthen the southern border with all possible forces and means.
    1. experienced
      experienced 9 October 2013 15: 54
      17
      Quote: Canep
      The customs union needs to strengthen the southern border with all possible forces and means.

      Russia needs to introduce visa regimes together with Kazakhstan and equip the border to prevent drug trafficking. Sooner or later it will have to be done, as well as deal with Gaster, so the sooner they start the cheaper it will cost ...
      It is time to stop these fables about brotherhood and mutual assistance, as under these slogans the megacities of Russia are saturated with illiterate and sick Jamshuds who bring down labor prices and at the same time "build" buildings dangerous for exploitation. And drugs with jamshuds are in a continuous stream, it gives more profit than the janitor's salary
      1. IRBIS
        IRBIS 9 October 2013 16: 23
        15
        Quote: seasoned
        It’s time to stop these fables of brotherhood and mutual assistance,

        Alexey, you have written my thoughts word for word, only too softly. Sometimes one can already hear, still timid, voices of "guests" who begin to demand! compliance with them! right! on our land. Think about it, people! Diasporas demand! Personally, I am morally and ideologically (physically - always) ready for the transition to tough actions in relation to "guests". I am sure that if the authorities do not take action, there will be an explosion. Yes, perhaps this will be the result of a provocation, but no one will understand. Well, you can no longer endure! We will lose the country!
        1. experienced
          experienced 9 October 2013 16: 29
          11
          Quote: IRBIS
          You wrote my thoughts word for word

          It is no secret that these are the thoughts and dreams of most Russians who daily encounter poorly-dressed, smelly (nowhere to wash) and representatives of Central Asia loudly screaming in their languages ​​...
          Quote: IRBIS
          just too soft

          My number of warnings is the guarantor of culture and gentleness. winked After I received warnings for "p ... e" and the word "swingers", I have to "blow on the water" by will, soon I will probably have to go to comments with smiles wassat
        2. avt
          avt 9 October 2013 17: 10
          +8
          Quote: IRBIS
          Think it over, people! Diasporas demand!
          I can only add that “diasporas” and their legal leaders, as a rule, control ethnic crime, which according to the GDP does not exist, and “black” and “gray” financial flows.
        3. Heccrbq .2
          Heccrbq .2 9 October 2013 21: 59
          +2
          Who will explode? The half-generation generation .... Pepsi, or stuck to the couch, dumbfounded by beer and spectacles on TV shit? We already have TV shows with black .... we are starring, and you are an explosion !!
      2. Essenger
        Essenger 9 October 2013 16: 36
        -4
        Quote: seasoned
        Russia needs to introduce visa regimes together with Kazakhstan


        I personally favor a visa regime with Russia than with the Central Asian countries.
        1. experienced
          experienced 9 October 2013 16: 40
          +7
          Quote: Essenger
          I personally favor a visa regime with Russia than with the Central Asian countries.

          Well, there have always been enough marginals at all times and in all countries ... There are also enough "eccentrics" in Russia who urge Japan to give up the islands, return Konigsberg, to publicly repent before someone and for something (Katyn, Gulag, etc.) ... so you are not alone hi
          To those hucksters in Russia who are tied to drugs from Central Asia, the introduction of a visa regime is also perceived as a Faberge sickle ...
          1. Essenger
            Essenger 9 October 2013 16: 53
            -15 qualifying.
            Oh, if only it were my personal opinion ...

            Quote: seasoned
            ... There are also enough "eccentrics" in Russia who urge the islands to be surrendered to Japan, returned to Konigsberg, to publicly repent before someone and for something (Katyn, Gulag, etc.) ... so

            And it seems to me violet who you have there or not. This is generally out of place, I think ..
            The fact that the Japanese islands and German Koenigsberg is a fact. Although it’s also violet to me and what it belongs to))))

            Quote: seasoned
            To those hucksters in Russia who are tied to drugs from Central Asia, the introduction of a visa regime is also perceived as a Faberge sickle ...

            Do whatever you want, but because of Russia, Kazakhstan will not spoil relations about the CA countries.
            1. experienced
              experienced 9 October 2013 17: 01
              +9
              Quote: Essenger
              Do whatever you want, but because of Russia, Kazakhstan will not spoil relations about the CA countries.

              Well, yes, Kazakhs 17 million people
              And here:
              Uzbekistan - 29
              Kyrgyzstan - 5 people.
              Turkmenistan - 5 people

              That is why you "keep quiet" winked
              Well, the islands and Kaliningrad are Russian and they will remain ... hi
              1. IRBIS
                IRBIS 9 October 2013 17: 11
                +4
                Quote: seasoned
                Well, the islands and Kaliningrad are Russian and they will remain ...

                Definitely!
              2. Essenger
                Essenger 9 October 2013 17: 28
                -4
                Quote: seasoned
                Well, yes, Kazakhs 17 million people
                And here:
                Uzbekistan - 29
                Kyrgyzstan - 5 people.
                Turkmenistan - 5 people


                I was of high opinion about you)))))) Do you propose building a foreign policy based on the population?))) Then let's make friends with Bangladesh or Pakistan))) They have a population of more than 160 million each))))
                1. a52333
                  a52333 9 October 2013 17: 38
                  +3
                  Do you propose building foreign policy based on population?
                  I offer with countries not "outsiders".
                  Talking with a fool, you won’t turn shame

                  therefore advice you listen to Khayyam:

                  The poison offered to you by the sage, accept

                  from the hands of fools do not take balm.
              3. mark021105
                mark021105 9 October 2013 22: 12
                +3
                Quote: seasoned
                Well, the islands and Kaliningrad are Russian and they will remain ...

                Central Asia (now fashionable to call Central) was also Russian. In the second half of the nineteenth century, and more precisely in 1867, the Turkestan general governor was formed with its center in Tashkent ...
              4. de_monSher
                de_monSher 9 October 2013 23: 21
                -3
                Well, yes, Kazakhs 17 million people
                And here:
                Uzbekistan - 29


                So what? Sleep and see that Uzbekistan is interlocking with Kazakhstan, so bring demographic data too, I don’t understand?

                I can just say to these your "speeches" - "he will take it, dude", Uzbekistan has nothing to share with Kazakhstan, and there will never be anything to share ...
            2. IRBIS
              IRBIS 9 October 2013 17: 04
              +2
              Quote: Essenger
              The fact that the Japanese islands and German Koenigsberg is a fact.

              Wait a minute, and whose northern regions of Kazakhstan do not tell me? In what year did they join you and why - are you up to date?
              1. Essenger
                Essenger 9 October 2013 17: 10
                0
                Quote: IRBIS
                Quote: Essenger
                The fact that the Japanese islands and German Koenigsberg is a fact.

                Wait a minute, and whose northern regions of Kazakhstan do not tell me? In what year did they join you and why - are you up to date?


                And what year did they join?
            3. smersh70
              smersh70 9 October 2013 17: 30
              0
              Quote: Essenger
              Do what you want

              it seems that in this thread you are the only one opponent laughing and in the thread about Uncle Misha-I wassat
              1. Essenger
                Essenger 9 October 2013 17: 56
                0
                Quote: smersh70
                Quote: Essenger
                Do what you want

                it seems that in this thread you are the only one opponent laughing and in the thread about Uncle Misha-I wassat

                We are not used to it))))))
        2. IRBIS
          IRBIS 9 October 2013 16: 59
          +7
          Quote: Essenger
          I personally favor a visa regime with Russia than with the Central Asian countries.

          I support you. Let Central Asia ride without visas for you, it’s up to me a lantern. And to us - only with visas.
          1. Essenger
            Essenger 9 October 2013 17: 04
            0
            Quote: IRBIS
            I support you.

            Thank you very much, but the seasoned says the marginals))) What are the marginals? Here is one marshal who supported me.
            1. experienced
              experienced 9 October 2013 17: 12
              +5
              Quote: Essenger
              a seasoned says marginals

              And who else are you, if you contrast yourself with the state entity in which you live? Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan make up the CU and this is legalized; the CA countries live on their own on handouts. You are in favor of breaking off relations with Russia and living in peace with little things ... Marginal in its purest form winked
              Quote: Essenger
              Here is one marshal who supported me.

              Get used to looking not at the shoulder straps under the ava, but at the meaning of the commentary, the fact that Alexander (IRBIS) subtly "faked" you, you do not seem to even understand, shoulder straps obscured the meaning ... wassat
              1. Essenger
                Essenger 9 October 2013 17: 23
                -2
                Quote: seasoned
                And who else are you, if you contrast yourself with the state entity in which you live?

                and where did I oppose myself against Kazakhstan? !!!!

                Quote: seasoned
                Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan make up the CU and this is legalized,

                TS amorphous organization that should be abolished and will be as soon as this old senile leaves the post of president. It's time to stay too long.

                Quote: seasoned
                epaulets made sense ...

                PPC logic)))) Rather, I faked you))) I trolled all those who are ready to sell everything for these "plus signs".
                1. experienced
                  experienced 9 October 2013 17: 30
                  +3
                  Quote: Essenger
                  and where did I oppose myself against Kazakhstan? !!!!

                  If the authorities of Kazakhstan entered into an alliance with other countries, and you are against it for introducing visas with Russia, is this not a contrast?
                  Quote: Essenger
                  TS amorphous organization that should be abolished and will be as soon as this old senile leaves the post of president. It's time to stay too long.

                  This is a call for the overthrow of power ... In Russia, for this article in the Criminal Code is ...
                  Quote: Essenger
                  PPC logic)))) Rather, I faked you))) I trolled all those who are ready to sell everything for these "plus signs".

                  Bugaga, look at my comments where more than 100 minuses are collected ... I have my own opinion and I am not going to change it because of ephemeral virtual shoulder straps. I respect this trait in others, I have repeatedly seen on the site how individual members of the forum opposed the "crowd" (Kars, professor, Pupyrchaty and many others). I will quote and no longer discuss with you:
                  "Never argue with trolls (changed the word, censorship). You will go down to their level where they will crush you with their experience."
                  1. Essenger
                    Essenger 9 October 2013 17: 38
                    0
                    Quote: seasoned
                    If the authorities of Kazakhstan entered into an alliance with other countries, and you are against it for introducing visas with Russia, is this not a contrast?

                    This is my position, I am not against the state, but against the government's decision on the Customs Union. By the way, adopted without the approval of the referendum, that is, without the approval of the people ... For the gifted, the concept of "state" and "government" are not the same thing.

                    Quote: seasoned
                    This is a call for the overthrow of power ... In Russia, for this article in the Criminal Code is ...

                    Firstly, I wrote it was time to leave, there was no call for a violent change of power ...
                    Secondly, I am not in Russia

                    Quote: seasoned
                    I’ll quote and do not discuss with you more:

                    By the way, I also got sick, your every comment is a pearl)))
                  2. Essenger
                    Essenger 9 October 2013 17: 44
                    -2
                    Quote: seasoned
                    I have my own opinion and I'm not going to change it because of ephemeral virtual epaulets.


                    A similar situation with me. A primitive example, right now I would write comments about the brotherhood of Russians and Kazakhs. But my position is more important to me. I am against an alliance with Russia.
                    1. experienced
                      experienced 9 October 2013 17: 48
                      +4
                      Quote: Essenger
                      . I am against an alliance with Russia.

                      Before stating such phrases, look at the neighbors that surround you and maybe even then you will understand that the union of Russia and Kazakhstan is more beneficial to Kazakhstan as a guarantee of survival. But to whom am I telling ...
                      1. IRBIS
                        IRBIS 9 October 2013 18: 07
                        +4
                        Quote: seasoned
                        the union of Russia and Kazakhstan is more beneficial to Kazakhstan as a guarantee of survival.

                        Alexei, do not infringe on the great Turkic identity. Are you talking about all kinds of alliances with them? And they steadfastly stand guard over our southern borders. And we do not appreciate it.
                        And why don't I respect Asians, huh? Probably I'm still a nationalist towards them ...
                      2. Essenger
                        Essenger 9 October 2013 18: 21
                        0
                        Quote: IRBIS
                        And why I don't respect Asians

                        Are you a European?))))))))
                2. Essenger
                  Essenger 9 October 2013 17: 46
                  +1
                  Quote: seasoned
                  , look at my comments where 100 plus minuses are collected.


                  This is cool, my record is -40 (((
              2. IGS
                IGS 9 October 2013 18: 10
                +2
                TS amorphous organization that should be abolished and will be as soon as this old senile leaves the post of president. It's time to stay too long.
                And the TS will come to replace the Big And Pure friendship with the countries of the SA, the main thing is not to forget to buy more soap wassat
            2. Zymran
              Zymran 9 October 2013 18: 16
              +2
              Quote: seasoned
              And who else are you, if you contrast yourself with the state entity in which you live? Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan make up the CU and this is legalized, the CA countries live on their own on handouts. You are in favor of breaking off relations with Russia and living in peace with little things ... Marginal in pure form winked


              What handouts get, say Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan?
              1. experienced
                experienced 9 October 2013 18: 23
                +2
                Quote: Zymran
                What handouts get, say Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan?

                How many migrant workers from these countries send home? Despite the fact that
                about two million migrant workers from Uzbekistan are working in Russia
                The GDP of these countries is mainly in remittances. Where from these countries do agricultural products sell?
                Turkmenistan is true now in China on a drain and their Gaster more often go to Turkey to earn money, they will jump as with Tajikistan
                The land issue in Tajikistan risks escalating into an ethnic conflict. Evidence of this - the entry of troops of the People's Republic of China into the territory of a neighboring country. RT opposition reports that on Monday, May 6, official Beijing established military control over part of the land in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) of Tajikistan. Dushanbe transferred these territories to China to pay off foreign debt. It is known that the Tajik authorities have written off dozens of hectares of land to the Chinese partners in the Murgab district of GBAO, but the authorities refuse to confirm this fact. In total, over the years of independence of the Republic of Tatarstan, the Chinese were given 1,5 thousand square kilometers of land, which in fact is a disputed territory.
                1. Zymran
                  Zymran 9 October 2013 18: 46
                  +2
                  Well, probably for some reason Russia needs these Gaster?
                  1. experienced
                    experienced 9 October 2013 18: 53
                    +3
                    Quote: Zymran
                    Well, probably for some reason Russia needs these Gaster?

                    Bugaga, all Russians, in a single impulse, are already moaning with happiness that such "necessary" Gaster from CA are coming to their country ... We are just dumping so that by the time the trains arrive from CA we can spread the red carpet and meet the "necessary" workers brooms and shovels with orchestra wassat
                    They are needed not by Russia and not by Russians, but by Ponte (former cops) and bureaucrats ... laughing
                    An ordinary inhabitant does much more harm from them than good.
                    In Moscow, 10% of the places in preschool educational institutions are occupied by migrant children. They do not pay taxes; they spend money on social programs on them (hospitals, schools). So they are not needed here, and a simple layman only dreams of waving after departing wagons full of deported migrant workers
                    1. Zymran
                      Zymran 9 October 2013 19: 06
                      +1
                      I'm not talking about the townsfolk. It is about the authorities of the country.
                    2. IGS
                      IGS 9 October 2013 22: 56
                      +1
                      The benefit, unfortunately for some and to the delight of many, ceases to pay off the "headache".
            3. IGS
              IGS 9 October 2013 18: 40
              +4
              belay
              In 2011, the volume of personal transfers from Russia to Uzbekistan amounted to $ 4.909 billion, the Central Bank of Russia reports.
              In addition, the Russian side agreed to supply military equipment to Uzbekistan and modernize existing weapons, as well as contribute to the training of military specialists.
              It is planned to conclude a PSA with investments in excess of $ 1 billion (up to $ 1,4 billion, according to some data), which, in particular, was discussed by the presidents of Russia and Uzbekistan.

              restoration of abandoned fields with residual reserves of 7,7 billion cubic meters

              This is what I found in 5 minutes.
          2. de_monSher
            de_monSher 10 October 2013 11: 40
            +1
            TS and this is legalized, CA countries live on their own on handouts


            Uzbekistan does not live on handouts. All people in Uzbekistan: Uzbeks, Russians, Tatars ... EVERYTHING, in general - everyone, earn their bread by honest labor. If ur-o-d-s come across, so it happens in any country - there are not a few freaks in the world.

            And you, dear, no one gave the right to write provocative posts, you understand - "in Uzbekistan there are millions, in Kazakhstan there is a drain. So think." It only says that you and your brain are not all right, you are constantly playing wars in your mind.

            Just remember, if it is difficult to UNDERSTAND - Kazakhstan with Uzbekistan, neighbors, friends, almost native countries. There were no tensions and graters between them and never will be. There will be only joint infrastructure projects in the future ...

            That's something like this ...
    2. Zhaman-Urus
      Zhaman-Urus 9 October 2013 17: 32
      -2
      And when the Taliban will climb from Afghanistan to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, probably just remember about the CSTO or take AK 47 and you will be partisan in Ulytau?
  2. The comment was deleted.
  3. vladimirZ
    vladimirZ 10 October 2013 07: 01
    +1
    You noticed a word about Turkmenistan in the article. Neither good nor bad, although he is also a post-Soviet state of Central Asia.
    The political regime of the Turkmen Bashi holds the entire state within the feudal-clan legal framework, avoiding the actions of any political parties, except for one - the Democratic Party of Turkmenistan, the successor to the Communist Party of the Turkmen SSR, and no terrorist actions by reactionary Islamists.
    A strict visa regime has been introduced in the country, which does not allow the free departure of its citizens abroad and does not allow the import into the country of all sorts of destabilizing destructive "democratic trends."
    Yes, the country has a low standard of living, an average salary of $ 22-60, a pension of $ 15-60, but the level of development of the state and the level of income of citizens.
    Turkmenistan is a stable state, with its albeit weak economy. And who has it in the post-Soviet states?
    Therefore, it is possible for the post-Soviet states of Central Asia such an example of the state system as in Turkmestan is normal, and most importantly stable for everyone.
    Russia, together with Kazakhstan, in order to stabilize its southern borders, should assist in the establishment of such political feudal clan regimes in these states, built not on the action of many political parties that cause only political instability, but on the action of patriarchal clan ties of the peoples living in these states .
  • Stiletto
    Stiletto 9 October 2013 15: 46
    +5
    The first phrase perfectly conveys the essence of the whole report:
    "Russia should in every possible way avoid any unilateral forceful involvement in internal Afghan affairs."
    On my own, perhaps, I would replace the word "one-sided" with the phrase "whatever."
  • andrei332809
    andrei332809 9 October 2013 15: 51
    +1
    an urgent need to introduce execution for drugs. I think the pace of its production and transportation will only grow. Now the NATO together with their cargo will take away as much as they can, and the rest will trample us through takzhikyu. or maybe to our border guards without any showdown to physically destroy the Afghan caravans? Or again the screams will be about human rights?
    1. Xroft
      Xroft 9 October 2013 17: 00
      0
      For drugs, they already give the longest term, grandmas are always stronger than fear for Chuchmeks who have an average age of 35 years. A visa regime is needed, but no one will go to it under Putin. Yes, and after Putin, too, they’ve vryatli ... this will lead to a loss of influence in Central Asia.
  • a52333
    a52333 9 October 2013 15: 56
    +1
    the de facto geographical and political fragmentation of Afghanistan and the formation of several quasi-states on its territory; general civil war "all against all"
    And this will end. The north of Afghanistan is occupied by ethnic Uzbeks and Tajiks. There is no particular friendship with Pashtuns.
    1. alone
      alone 9 October 2013 16: 08
      +1
      Quote: a52333
      The north of Afghanistan is occupied by ethnic Uzbeks and Tajiks. There is no particular friendship with Pashtuns.


      The Taliban themselves will climb into Central Asia as allies of the Islamic movement of Uzbekistan. These are just the same representatives of the people of Central Asia. The Taliban will simply help them with weapons and volunteers. The country has been fighting for 50 years. fight
  • rugor
    rugor 9 October 2013 16: 04
    +1
    I wonder why a drone has not yet been developed for processing poppy fields with herbicides at night (so as not to be knocked down) according to satellite data. The strongest economies in the world are dancing around, but they can’t do anything.
    1. major071
      major071 9 October 2013 16: 12
      +5
      Because the CIA and the whole American shelupon feed on money from drugs. stop
    2. USMC
      USMC 9 October 2013 18: 37
      +1
      Quote: rugor
      I wonder why a drone has not yet been developed for processing poppy fields with herbicides at night (so as not to be knocked down) according to satellite data. The strongest economies in the world are dancing around, but they can’t do anything.

      look at the data who is the world's largest heroin user and understand
  • sem.sorok
    sem.sorok 9 October 2013 16: 24
    +1
    Quote: seasoned
    Russia needs to introduce visa regimes together with Kazakhstan and equip the border to prevent drug trafficking.

    This is unambiguous. Well, what’s the matter - even the highest officials of the state are involved in drug trafficking. What can we talk about if the son of the ambassador of Takjikistan to Belarus earns money as a drug courier.
    1. andrei332809
      andrei332809 9 October 2013 16: 45
      +1
      Quote: sem.sorok
      What can we talk about if the son of the ambassador of Takjikistan to Belarus earns money as a drug courier.

      But father knows?
      1. AVV
        AVV 9 October 2013 19: 10
        0
        First of all, such ambassadors need to be transported so that their offspring will not be poisoned by the people of Belarus!
  • Roman_999
    Roman_999 9 October 2013 17: 03
    0
    Quote: rugor
    The strongest economies in the world are dancing around, but they can’t do anything
    And here is the answer (((You yourself designated it. While the strongest are jumping about victory, there can be no talk of victory, as well as victory over the "Somali pirates" and the problem of terrorism firmly tied around Islamism of extreme persuasion and other things ... will not be defeated while around these problems there are strong ties with the world's largest economies.
  • 787nkx
    787nkx 9 October 2013 17: 15
    0
    Islamism, in its extreme manifestations, is the answer to the imposition of consumer democracy.
    You can say a protective reflex to protect national identity and independence.

    If Russia does not overestimate the consequences of the influence of consumer democracy, then we will wait for militant Orthodoxy or the complete degradation of our society.
  • j iz sibiri
    j iz sibiri 9 October 2013 17: 25
    -3
    in kazakhstan uzbekestan kyrgyzstan and so on and so forth, Russian Russians were slaughtered, they drove out rotions, and we are working with them

    let them be torn to pieces by Afghans, let them fight and then finish off all of these at once .........................
    1. Essenger
      Essenger 9 October 2013 18: 41
      +2
      Quote: j iz sibiri
      let them be torn to pieces by Afghans let them fight and then finish off all of these at once


      Do you first know who the "Afghans" are?
      1. j iz sibiri
        j iz sibiri 9 October 2013 18: 49
        -1
        I don’t need to know them much

        but I know who the Kazakhs are, and here it’s only ....................... here
        1. Essenger
          Essenger 9 October 2013 19: 06
          +1
          Quote: j iz sibiri
          but I know who the Kazakhs are, and here it’s only ....................... here


          ahahaha) hi
          1. j iz sibiri
            j iz sibiri 9 October 2013 19: 20
            -2
            need to cry and not laugh
            1. Essenger
              Essenger 9 October 2013 19: 25
              +2
              Quote: j iz sibiri
              need to cry and not laugh

              what for?)
              1. j iz sibiri
                j iz sibiri 9 October 2013 19: 52
                +1
                and then what laughs the one who laughs last
                1. Essenger
                  Essenger 9 October 2013 19: 54
                  +5
                  Quote: j iz sibiri
                  and then what laughs the one who laughs last


                  Well then I went crying
    2. mikkado31
      mikkado31 9 October 2013 23: 49
      0
      They didn’t cut in Kyrgyzstan. Like others I don’t know ...
    3. The comment was deleted.
      1. The comment was deleted.
  • Troy
    Troy 9 October 2013 17: 32
    +1
    Frontier to the castle, Asians go home. By the way, Americans no, no, and they give stars to Colombian drug lords. destroying coca crops. And nobody blathers. Can we also test rockets and dispose of old ammunition by destroying poppy plantations? And pilots experience and drugs are destroyed. And from all presenting there is a real high-moral cover. We destroy evil. And what, as an option, what is bad?
    1. mikkado31
      mikkado31 9 October 2013 23: 52
      +1
      so what's stopping you?
      1. Troy
        Troy 10 October 2013 04: 45
        0
        Fucking tolerant government!
  • Gl00mDaem0n
    Gl00mDaem0n 9 October 2013 18: 16
    +2
    Judging by the Soviet company in Afghanistan, no weak henchmen used to cave in under anyone who is not lazy will not remain in power in Afghanistan for any length of time without military support from the outside. Therefore, the most likely scenario is the return of the Taliban to power if there is no power (ideology) steeper than the Taliban.
  • The comment was deleted.
    1. Essenger
      Essenger 9 October 2013 18: 32
      +4
      Quote: chief.matros
      and the northern parts of Kazakhstan, unfortunately, Russia voluntarily gave to you, but in vain.

      Can you bring an act or a year when it was done?

      Quote: chief.matros
      Our great-grandfathers grandfathers made an empire, shed blood, and some scum distribute these lands left and right.

      These are questions to your government, certainly not to me
    2. romb
      romb 9 October 2013 22: 06
      0
      Well then, do not forget to say thank you to the Golden Horde, for the actual creation of this Moscow state itself. Almost two hundred years: cherished, protected, and helped to grow with lands.
      1. mikkado31
        mikkado31 9 October 2013 23: 55
        +3
        They don’t know anything about the Horde in Russia. They are taught there that the Horde is a wild nomad grazed on the steppes of sheep ... Although Muscovy is still not loved by neighbors for arrogance, arrogance and great-power rudeness.
  • Silkway0026
    Silkway0026 9 October 2013 19: 07
    +5
    I look at the comments - Kazakhstan has enough of its own "bog" kreakl. Nazarbayev is an idiot for them, Russia is almost an occupier for them ... he just shit.
    1. Essenger
      Essenger 9 October 2013 19: 10
      -6
      Quote: Silkway0026
      I look at the comments - Kazakhstan has enough of its own "bog" kreakl.


      I sincerely wish that the marshes came to power in Russia, the adequacy of at least a little increase)))
      1. Shotoff
        Shotoff 10 October 2013 14: 36
        0
        You know, despite the fact that Putin is not perfect, that Russia needs a lot of reforms and far from all decisions are right, swamp citizens are even worse; sorry for the stereotypicality, but about the swamps from London know better))).

        I’ll ask you not to forget that the formation of the state and culture of the will of the people is not a quick process. In the United States, the level of corruption and the criminal situation after the civil war and up to the 60s of the 20th century was just surpassing, and even now neither in Europe nor in the States have corruption been eliminated, it is kept at a fairly low level for normal life of the population and business, and to come to this Russia needs time.
  • Corsair5912
    Corsair5912 9 October 2013 19: 10
    0
    Already, cases of recruitment of mercenaries and the creation of illegal centers for the spread of Islamic ideas of extremist content have become more frequent on Russian territory. At the same time, they are clearly insolvent the theses sometimes thrown by observers about the alleged deliberate exaggeration of such a danger in Russia in an effort to secure additional influence in the region.

    The real danger of Islamic extremism will increase if the chief officers of our special services of the FSB, FSK, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and others clap their ears and engage in their own selfish interests, instead of cleaning Russia of all kinds of nationalistic rubbish.
    Inhumans were witnessing - all lah ak bar, outside the mosque, you need to water it in place, not even in the toilet.
  • MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 9 October 2013 19: 34
    0
    Russia should fully avoid any unilateral forceful involvement in intra-Afghan affairs
    This is unambiguous .. Special services are diplomats, etc., etc. their main work ... there are quite a few supporters of Russia.
  • patriot2
    patriot2 9 October 2013 19: 47
    0
    It is necessary to keep the borders of the customs union locked, as it was during the USSR: thorns, towers, checkpoints, track lines, patrols. And it would be nice to keep mixed l / line of outposts (such as: Russia + Kazakhstan). And now anything in either direction is being sacked. Yes, and migration waves must be kept under more stringent control.
  • Savva30
    Savva30 9 October 2013 20: 18
    +2
    I do not know about the "Afghan turn of events" after 2014, but if our government does not stop pursuing an idiotic foreign (Asia) and internal (Caucasus) migration policy, then our "round of events" will be much hotter ...
  • MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 9 October 2013 20: 56
    0
    Quote: Savva30
    I do not know about the "Afghan turn of events" after 2014, but if our government does not stop pursuing an idiotic foreign (Asia) and internal (Caucasus) migration policy, then our "round of events" will be much hotter ...

    Not everything is so simple alas .. (block the ban to shoot, etc.) Everyone understands and the work is done .. Anglo-Saxons will besiege and everything will calm down (relatively of course) The Indians of the American continent were already waiting for us .. bully They really want a "managed house" like in the Middle East they have a lot of problems there and they are very bored under the "hood" ..
  • saag
    saag 9 October 2013 21: 18
    0
    Quote: Essenger
    Can you bring an act or a year when it was done?

    But what if you present the act and the year, then the area will be returned back? :-)
  • Uralean
    Uralean 9 October 2013 21: 37
    -1
    Quote: Essenger
    Quote: IRBIS
    Quote: Essenger
    The fact that the Japanese islands and German Koenigsberg is a fact.

    Wait a minute, and whose northern regions of Kazakhstan do not tell me? In what year did they join you and why - are you up to date?


    And what year did they join?

    The West of Present-day Kazakhstan (such a country up to 36 g did not exist) It was more than 600 years by the Ural Cossack Troops Lands! Under Soviet rule, the Cossacks were repressed, partially destroyed, and their lands were transferred to the newly formed Kyrgyz-Kasyssatsky formation, called the Kirghiz-Kaisatsky Autonomous Region within the RSFSR .. in 1927. In 1936, the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic was formed. Which included the two regions of the Siberian Cossacks - the Peter and Paul and Pavlodar, earlier before the conquest of Siberia, belonging to the Siberian Tatars of Khan Kuchum. And the Three Regions of the Semirechensk Cossack Army Ust-Kamenogorsk, Semipolatinsk, and Partially Alma-Ata (Stan. Vernaya) ... Here you have Kazakhstan. In the ass, you should kiss the Soviet government of Muscovy, which, fearing the Cossacks, destroyed them, and passed on to you, then not literate nomads, in the hope that they will manage these lands through you .. Now they felt like hereditary Masters ...
    1. hommer
      hommer 9 October 2013 22: 38
      +1
      Quote: Ural
      It was more than 600 years the Lands of the Ural Cossack Troops!


      Those. it turns out that in 1400 was the Ural Cossack army ?!

      For reference - at this time in Russia, Vasily I Dmitrievich, the Grand Duke of Moscow and Vladimir, rules. son of Dmitry Donskoy.
      Principality of Rostov - Fedor Andreevich (c. 1364-1410)
      The Starodub Principality - Fedor Andreevich, Prince Prince (c. 1390-1410)
      Principality of Suzdal - Vasily Dmitrievich, Grand Duke (1394-1414)
      Novgorod land -
      Semen Olgerdovich Prince (1389-1407)
      Esif Falaleevich, Posadnik (1399-1400)
      Yuri Dmitrievich (posadnik), posadnik (1400-1401)
      Ryazan Grand Duchy - Oleg Ivanovich, Grand Duke, (1351-1402)
      Tver Grand Duchy of Ivan Mikhailovich, Grand Duke (1399-1425)
      Russia is not yet a single state, what, nafik, is the Ural Cossack army?

      Another victim of the exam ...
      The horror of what's going on in your head. They read the myths presented as historical science.
      Unfortunately, here it’s not better either - completely ignorant young people are stuffing them with completely wild pseudo-historical theories. Sadly ...
    2. mikkado31
      mikkado31 10 October 2013 00: 01
      +1
      What kind of army ??? Cossacks are baptized Tatars! The west of present-day Kazakhstan is the Golden Horde and later the Nogai Khanate.

      600 years ago, the Horde still beat the Russian princes for the fact that they "threw" the khan with the tribute that the Moscow prince Ivan Kalita collected for them.
      1. Troy
        Troy 10 October 2013 04: 49
        -3
        So am I a baptized Tatar? What do you smoke and where do you get it? I would consider this an insult, but I see under what flag you are, and in Russia they are not offended by such.
  • tenere1200
    tenere1200 9 October 2013 22: 37
    +1
    Quote: Essenger
    Quote: Silkway0026
    I look at the comments - Kazakhstan has enough of its own "bog" kreakl.


    I sincerely wish that the marshes came to power in Russia, the adequacy of at least a little increase)))

    You know what, dear Essenger - let the whole shushara be swampy - wherever he goes. Let it come to power in your country. And I will be sincerely glad of this. We do not want revolutions and coups. And +100 Uraltsu
    1. mikkado31
      mikkado31 10 October 2013 00: 04
      +3
      Who wants you what? Live yourself, cook in your juice, only do not climb to the neighbors with your samovar. Since you don’t know your story, at least do not teach others.
  • scientist
    scientist 10 October 2013 01: 30
    0
    Dear Do not succumb to provocations. Essenger's opinion just needs to be considered. It really reflects the thoughts of about 20-30% of Kazakhs living in Kazakhstan. And these are the usual consequences of an information war designed for fragile minds and for people whose emotions over their national exceptionalism or inferiority prevail over reason.
    But I would like to return to the problem of Afghanistan.
    Of course, after the withdrawal of troops, the Taliban will take revenge. The militants, who will soon be ousted from Syria, will significantly strengthen the Afghan apposition. In Afghanistan, as in Iraq, a protracted civil war will begin. NATO countries, as usual, will fuel this internal conflict until then, until the government comes to power that will look into the mouth of the United States.
    And the problem with drugs, this is not a problem in Afghanistan, but in the CA and Russia. Now the drug business has well-functioning channels, which are controlled and covered by special services by 80% - 90%. To understand this, it is enough to simply analyze the report of the International Anti-Drug Organizations on supply channels and volumes. Afghan heroin flows in tons through the countries of the United Arab Emirates and Russia, and the police catch drug addicts with grams, large batches of kg. it’s generally very rare and obviously beginner, vagrant “businessmen”.
    Russia before Kazakhstan joins the Customs Union is very good helped us to open up well-established channels of smuggling from China on the border of "Khargos". Therefore, there is now a big opposition to the vehicle. After all, more than 100 customs officers flew from their posts, dozens were imprisoned. But all of them were with great connections in Astana and fed many officials and deputies there.
    I think this positive experience in mutual assistance in revealing persistent criminal groups needs to be developed in all directions, including drugs and corruption, as well as money laundering in the supply of low-quality weapons, military equipment, technologies, especially information. After all, this concerns the military security of all countries, otherwise it turns out that the agreement was signed, but in fact, I want to turn it around. Efforts are necessary necessarily joint and in one direction, and that UEC now as "swan cancer and pike", just interfere with each other.
  • Asan Ata
    Asan Ata 10 October 2013 03: 06
    +1
    You read the comments, you feel like a listener on the tram. Different people crammed, some with 4 classes, some with a diploma. Just a laugh. But the topic is serious.
    Personally, my opinion is that the States will not come out of there so easily. They opened this feeding trough for several important reasons: to kill the cocaine market in the States, thereby appeasing Latin America; to take a politically and geographically important place to encircle Russia, China and Iran, to receive uncontrolled CIA revenues to carry out "quiet missions". Note, I am not writing about "Islamists" because I do not believe in their passionarity, "paid puppets of imperialism." Something worked out, but in little things. Just leaving the toad will torment. The main thing is that it did not work out to have stable bases. And why? Maybe someone else was feeding the Talibans this time, though thinner? China. China has already influenced the situation in this country more than once. Remember their arms shipments in the 80s? Why does China need Afghanistan?
    1. Iran’s oil dry land. For this, they climb into Tajikistan, the isthmus is narrow. 2. Control over the Uighurs in Xinjiang. Kazakhstan will not miss weapons, with Kyrgyzstan it is similar, and through Tajiks, Afghanistan and Pakistan can receive. In addition, camps for training, etc.
    3. The experience of war without a threat to independence.

    In general, I think that China has enough arguments to get into Afghanistan. And how they will deal with the Taliban is already an excursion into the future.
  • Zymran
    Zymran 10 October 2013 12: 08
    0
    Quote: DC 3
    And you better ask archaeologists why they are not really allowed to conduct excavations ... myths ...


    Why?

    Quote: DC 3
    There is a proverb and this is not a myth.


    Myth.