Military Review

Chinese economic miracle: braking due to external factors

19
The press went around the data borrowed from the latest report of the State Statistical Office of China. The Chinese could not please themselves with anything special. The report notes GDP growth, says about the stability of economic development, but the figures show that China’s GDP in the first half of 2013 was the lowest since 1999. Experts predict the Middle Kingdom is not only a recession following the crisis in Western countries, but also the end of the era of cheap labor in the next ten years, which will further affect the Chinese economy.


As pointed out Elena Mishina ("Russian newspaper"), China's GDP in the first half of 2013 of the year grew by 7,6%, amounting to 4,04 of a trillion dollars. In the first quarter of 2013, GDP grew by 7,7%, in the second quarter - by 7,5%. This is the lowest figure when counting from the 1999 of the year. Data taken from the report of the State Statistical Office of China.

The report was commented by a representative of the statistical office, Sheng Laiyun: “In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy was developing overall stable. The government has focused its efforts on improving the qualitative characteristics of economic growth and active financial and monetary policy. ”

The decrease in growth rates is due to recession and other crisis phenomena in the global economy. However, it is at least premature to see a “crisis” in China. Those analysts found on the Internet who are talking almost about the recession of the Chinese economy, simply wishful thinking. By the way, GDP growth in the first half of 2013 can be compared with the dynamics of last year.

As transmits correspondent ITAR-TASS Alexey Selishchev, China's GDP for the first half of the year 2013 of the year by 7,6% exceeded the figure of the same period of the year 2012. This is also stated in the report of the State Statistical Office of China. Therefore, it is premature not only to talk about the crisis, but also to declare a “slowdown”, which is also widely written on the Web.

For the first six months of 2013, value added products in the agricultural sector of the PRC amounted to 1 trillion. 862,2 billion yuan (3% higher compared to the same period last year), said Yuri Levykin (Utro.ru). In industry, this figure was 11 trillion. 703,7 billion yuan (an increase of 7,6%); in the services industry - 11 trillion 235 billion yuan (increase in 8,3%). China continues to develop in the framework of the industrial economic model.

The latest economic data is very sympathetic to the world markets: there was an increase in stock indices. There is no cause for concern: thanks to the competent actions of the Chinese leadership, the observed decline in growth rates is proceeding smoothly.

Financial analysts see the main reason for the Chinese “smooth” decline in external factors - that is, those that dictate demand. After all, the Chinese economy is largely focused on the world market.

Anna Bodrova (Investkafe) writes that the environment of China is not ready to buy in the volumes in which the Celestial is ready to sell. It is difficult for the Chinese economy to keep the rates taken earlier (growth in pre-crisis time by 14-15% annually).

In essence, the analyst believes, the Chinese government "signs off on its own impotence." Without activating external demand, the locomotive cannot be re-launched.

“... In theory, it is necessary to make sure that the Chinese economy has become a kind of independent system that can switch quickly depending on which side the support is currently active and sufficient for. It is necessary to abandon such a strong binding to the indicators of the heavy industry sector and remove dependence on the real estate segment. In general, a certain ideal economic structure emerges, to which Beijing aspires, but so far is only at the first step of the long ladder. ”


According to the professor of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation, Andrey Zuev, the era of cheap labor in China is coming to an end. The professor spoke about this at the International Forum of Megapolises, held in Beijing by the International Alliance for Development and Public Policy, writes Yury Levykin (Utro.ru).

According to Comrade Zuev, cheap labor in China will disappear. It will happen in the next ten years. China will have to face a choice that now faces Russia, to borrow labor resources abroad. Alternatively, the PRC may change the economic structure in favor of new progressive models.

The author of the article reminds that the Chinese authorities are aware of the existence of such a problem. During the last congress of the CPC, it was also about changing the economic model. In the near future, China itself will begin to export production to countries with low labor costs — to countries in Africa and Central Asia.

As for the components of Chinese economic success, they were identified by Alexey Kiva, doctor historical Sci., Chief Researcher of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, political scientist. In material posted on "Centuries", he calls the eight factors of rapid dew of the Middle Kingdom.

Noting that over the course of thirty years, China’s GDP increased annually by 9,8% (eventually increased 15 times), foreign trade increased by 125 times, and in terms of its volume China ranked first in the world, overtaking Japan and Germany, the author points out that China during this time actually changed places with Russia. This is clearly seen in the nature of the foreign trade of the two states.

“... Back in 1990, most of our exports to China were machinery and equipment, now raw materials. As for military equipment and power units for nuclear power plants, then, judging by the trend, China will soon abandon them. But perhaps the Russian's pride may hurt the following fact most of all. We built the first car factory in China in Chongchin with a full production cycle at the beginning of 1950's. He produced ZIS-150, GAZ-51, GAZ-69. By the beginning of the reforms in China, 149 thousand vehicles were produced per year. And now this plant is called the country's first car factory (China First Automobile Group Corporation - FAW), produces about 2 million cars a year, exports them to other countries and builds its enterprises in Russia. Enterprises and other Chinese factories are being built in Russia. In total, 2012 has produced a million cars in China in 19,3 year. Probably, few people know that China can offer us the most modern equipment, but everyone surely knows that Chinese high-tech household goods are crammed with shelves of Russian stores. ”


The following political scientist highlights the factors of Chinese growth.

Factor №1. Building socialism with Chinese characteristics, announced by Deng Xiaoping. Its intermediate goal is the creation of a society of average prosperity (“xiaokang”). It is a society in which every Chinese will have a minimum set of vital benefits: work, housing, education, medical care, etc. On the road to a brighter future, 50-100 years can go. Such a distant time not only inspired the people with the idea, but also allowed the authorities to “fill the concept of“ socialism with Chinese characteristics ”with quite bourgeois content, which is done in practice,” the author notes, further distracting himself against the Chinese socialist way of opposing the Russian reforms to Gaidar (building capitalism, which meant for the masses of Russians, the road was not forward, like the Chinese, but back).

Factor №2. The model of socio-economic reforms was created taking into account world experience and local realities, therefore it turned out to be one of the most successful ever implemented in countries in transition, the analyst notes. (The Russian Gaidar team imposed a foreign model - the American one).

Factor №3. The rapid development of China helped the West, especially the United States. Deng Xiaoping took into account the fact that Western corporations are interested in the Chinese market, as well as in high profits due to cost savings. The capital of Chinese overseas communities (“huaqiao”) and then international corporations flowed into free economic zones in the PRC. But to some estimates, over thirty years, China has attracted 700 billion dollars through the FEZ. This outstanding figure is also explained by the sufficient efficiency of the judicial and executive systems, which are components of a favorable investment climate:

“... Vladimir Neveykin, who left for the Middle Kingdom to improve the Chinese language, but an Orientalist who had become a successful businessman there, writes:“ In China, any criminal encroachment on the property of a legal entrepreneur is considered a grave state crime. And any slowdown in the police’s response to this is regarded as a direct complicity to the gravest crime. ” “If you,” he says, “someone came, for example, from the fire service, sanitary and epidemiological supervision (all these bodies are present in the PRC) and issued an order that resulted in stopping production, disrupting supplies to customers, and then it turned out that the actions of the official were unlawful, the state will reimburse you for the full damage from these actions of its official, and then collects these expenses from his family ... All this applies, including customs. ” We would have such orders! ”


Factor №4. A high proportion of savings is up to 49% relative to GDP (several times more than in Russia). This is achieved by saving money: a modest payment of officials, the lack of "exorbitant income" from the management of state corporations. In China, there were neither financial pyramids, nor confiscations of money from citizens. In addition, in the PRC, unlimited import of foreign currency is welcomed, but export is limited. The process is strictly controlled by banks and customs. The flight of capital invested in China is excluded, the analyst writes. With the "gray schemes" of the withdrawal of capital from the country in China, "they are cracking down ruthlessly."

Factor №5. The West believed that China would remain an “assembly factory.” However, already in the first years of the reforms, the foundations of the two largest innovation and production centers were laid - Shenzhen in southern China and Zhgongguancun in and around Beijing. Western universities, primarily in the United States, received education from 1,5 to 2 million Chinese. Thanks to investing in the development of science in the Middle Kingdom, 14 world-class universities appeared.

Factor №6. Beijing has turned the WTO accession in its favor. He prepared for this for a long time, increasing his export potential. Chinese goods have captured the world market.

Factor №7. China's development has also been facilitated by foreign policy. The analyst believes that Deng Xiaoping rejected the expansionist foreign policy of Mao Zedong. And only Xi Jinping made the world understand that China intends to play a more important role in international relations.

Factor №8. The rational defense policy of Beijing, which, according to a political scientist, "does not compete with other nuclear countries in armaments, but is guided by the principle of sufficiency".

Thus, the factors that at one time strengthened China may today be the conditions for its destabilization. China's expansion is growing along with its appetites - examples of this are conflicts with Japan and other states over island territories. The cost of labor in China is growing with the development of the economy. At the same time, China’s dependence on foreign markets is increasing, since the Celestial Empire, thanks to reforms, has become an export-dependent country with low domestic demand. The recession in Europe and the United States is now turning into a slump in growth in China, and the creation of a powerful middle class with hundreds of millions of the present poor of the Celestial Empire is very, very far away.

At the same time, those analysts are wrong that they are predicting to the PRC a quick economic demise. By changing its foreign policy and expanding its industrial expansion, China is rapidly developing in Africa and is becoming stronger in the countries of Central Asia, where parts of the territory are already splitting off from Tajikistan - for the debt of the Middle Kingdom ...

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
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  1. NOMADE
    NOMADE 18 July 2013 07: 27
    +3
    Well, China is faced with the problems that Japan faced during the period of its rapid economic growth, with all the ensuing consequences. For us, on the one hand, this is +, but on the other, and -. And - in my opinion more for us. When economic growth stops and the recession begins, social tensions arise. To direct social frustration, they use - external enemies, as well as nationalist slogans (Disputed territories, etc.)
    1. xetai9977
      xetai9977 18 July 2013 08: 10
      16
      Quote: NOMADE
      China has run into problems

      We would have these "problems". GDP growth of 7,6%. !!! A dream of post-Soviet (and not only) countries! In one generation, the impoverished country became a superpower. And the elite of our countries are engaged in chatting and stuffing their own pockets. Besides, according to the old habit, we look at the Chinese from the top down, it is not clear on what grounds.
    2. tronin.maxim
      tronin.maxim 18 July 2013 08: 17
      +2
      Quote: NOMADE
      To direct social frustration, they use - external enemies, as well as nationalist slogans (Disputed territories, etc.)

      What is happening slowly in China.
  2. omsbon
    omsbon 18 July 2013 08: 05
    +1
    (Russia’s Gaidar’s team imposed an alien model - the American one).

    Will we still hiccup from the actions of the liberals? Is it not time, supporters of the cheeky guydar to expel, to hell, from the government!
  3. NOMADE
    NOMADE 18 July 2013 08: 26
    +1
    Quote: tronin.maxim
    Quote: NOMADE
    To direct social frustration, they use - external enemies, as well as nationalist slogans (Disputed territories, etc.)

    What is happening slowly in China.


    This is just bad, and it can threaten us, just in time for the article that I posted yesterday (Which may be June 22, 2.0).
  4. Owl
    Owl 18 July 2013 09: 06
    +4
    In the near future, China itself will begin to export production to countries with low labor costs - to the states of Africa and Central Asia.

    Will China begin to do what the West has done by moving production to China? Those. China will create the prerequisites for the start of a similar economic miracle somewhere in Africa and in the future will grow a competitor for itself.
  5. yanus
    yanus 18 July 2013 09: 37
    +3
    Quote: Owl
    In the near future, China itself will begin to export production to countries with low labor costs - to the states of Africa and Central Asia.

    Will China begin to do what the West has done by moving production to China?

    Firstly, everything will depend on demand. Now the production of "consumer goods" covers the needs of the United States and Europe.
    Secondly, what prevents Europeans and Americans themselves from building enterprises in Africa? In fact, they have already begun to do so in Asian countries, which are more defeated than China.
    Thirdly, in Africa there is internal instability. Constant war.
    Fourth, if China builds factories in some African country, who can guarantee that there will be no problems with "democracy" there? It is on Chinese territory that no one will contact China, and in Africa, France will force it on.
    1. deputy ___ watered
      deputy ___ watered 18 July 2013 10: 02
      +1
      About bending over China is hardly! Especially in Africa. (Perhaps in the northern part it would have worked, but central and southern Africa has been staked out by the "Celestial Empire" for 5 years already). After the departure of the USSR, China occupied most of the vacated niche!
      1. Asan Ata
        Asan Ata 18 July 2013 23: 01
        0
        That's right. But China also sees Africa as its future. It seems that the Chinese have realized that in Siberia and Kazakhstan there are few people, because it is not easy to live there, but in the subtropical and tropical zones of Africa it is their native climate. It is clear that they will not go into Islamic Africa, they don’t know where to go, but equatorial Africa, and even with its resources! But where the blacks have not yet cut, that they have rights! So in 50 years there will be a new African China, but China will become quiet retirement Switzerland in China.
    2. Owl
      Owl 18 July 2013 10: 28
      0
      Quote: yanus

      Secondly, what prevents Europeans and Americans themselves from building enterprises in Africa?

      apparently the crisis is hindering. Neither Amers nor geyropezam now before the opening of new plants somewhere in distant countries, they can not figure out their internal problems.

      Quote: yanus

      Thirdly, in Africa there is internal instability. Constant war.

      I think China can very well provide stability where its plants will be. Those countries where there will be factories in China will also say thanks that they put things in order.

      Quote: yanus

      Fourth, if China builds factories in some African country, who can guarantee that there will be no problems with "democracy" there? It is on Chinese territory that no one will contact China, and in Africa, France will force it on.

      A VERY controversial statement. Do not underestimate China's military power. And I very much doubt that anyone in their right mind will try to "bend" China.
      And about the "problem with democracy" ... Vaughn pin.dosy regularly shout that we have no democracy and human rights are being violated - so what? They yell and yell, no one pays attention to them anymore.
      So I don’t see any problems with the construction of factories in China in Africa and Asia, but I’m only surprised that the Chinese decided to follow the path of the West and step on the same rake.
      1. yanus
        yanus 18 July 2013 11: 08
        0
        Quote: Owl
        And about the "problem with democracy" ... Vaughn pin.dosy regularly shout that we have no democracy and human rights are being violated - so what? They yell and yell, no one pays attention to them anymore.

        The inhabitants of Libya (the Africans just) fundamentally disagree with you. As well as disagree with you, the Chinese companies, which made big plans for Libya before "building democracy."
        And what, much did China heap on European "democratizers" for bending their interests in Libya?
        How do you imagine "the projection of China's military power in Africa?" Swim with your handles to the African coast?
  6. Standard Oil
    Standard Oil 18 July 2013 10: 15
    +1
    Any country has problems and China is no exception, but all this talk about "sunset" or "end", in my opinion, is simply from the envy of both the economic and political successes of China, which, in contrast to decaying Europe, which has slipped to gay parades and victorious liberalism, has achieved huge successes in all areas from science and economics to social security, while shooting homosexuals and putting liberals in a madhouse where they belong. Yes, and it is a shame for us from Russia now to see how the country just seemed like 3-4 of the world yesterday became world leaders , and was able to preserve the advantages of socialism, discarding its shortcomings, of course we did not find our own Deng Xiaoping, but each country deserves its rulers for someone prosperity, and for someone a cesspool with the Gaidars, Gorbachevs and all sorts of stagnatics like Yeltsin.
  7. Valery Neonov
    Valery Neonov 18 July 2013 11: 09
    +1
    "At the same time, those analysts who predict the PRC's imminent economic demise are wrong."- China needs a market for "dumping" cheap products, and how regrettable is Russia "promoting" this market ... Consequently, it involuntarily "helps" the PRC in economic growth.
  8. washi
    washi 18 July 2013 12: 45
    0
    According to Andrei Zuev, professor at the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation, the era of cheap labor in China is drawing to a close. The professor spoke about this at the International Forum of Megacities, held in Beijing by the International Alliance for Development and Public Policy, writes Yuri Levykin (Utro.ru).
    Yeah of course.
    Rather, there will be a revolution and a civil war. Our minimum salary for the majority of the Chinese population is happiness.
    1. Rakti-kali
      Rakti-kali 18 July 2013 19: 24
      0
      Quote: Vasya
      Our minimum salary for the majority of the Chinese population is happiness.

      Nu - nu ... at prices comparable to ours, the average salary in China for the year was 32 yuan (244 rubles per month), in Beijing - 14219 (57 rubles per month). It is clear that these are certainly not milk rivers with sweet sides, but 779 rubles (minimum wage in the Russian Federation) is no longer such happiness for the Chinese, and it is quite comparable to the average salary in the Central and Southern Federal District.
  9. antonio
    antonio 18 July 2013 13: 47
    0
    Some tales, in China everything is so good ...
    Only the words trade union, sick leave, pension - do not understand the majority of the population of China, they do not know what it is! Only 1% of oligarch officials accumulate savings; 99% of the population lives in terrible poverty.
    1. Viator
      Viator 18 July 2013 23: 49
      0
      Quote: antonio
      99% of the population lives in terrible poverty


      Maybe they are not luxurious, but certainly not "99% of the population is in poverty," as some Western media show. And by the way, as it was correctly noted above, the difference in prices must also be taken into account. Don't think of it as bragging, but for example: my salary is comparable to the salaries of handymen in Moscow ($ 500-700), but at the same time I can afford to eat only in restaurants for several years in a row (not in the most expensive, of course, but still), fly for holidays to the south of the country and rent hotels for a month or two. Yes, not everyone in China lives well, but believe me - far from one percent!
  10. Gomunkul
    Gomunkul 18 July 2013 14: 30
    0
    In the near future, China itself will begin to export production to countries with low labor costs - to the states of Africa and Central Asia.
    While they are gathering, all labor migrants from Asia will be in Russia, so that only Africa remains.yes
  11. georg737577
    georg737577 19 July 2013 01: 31
    0
    Paradoxically, some experts believe that it was the increase in the quality of Chinese goods that led to a decrease in demand - the "lifetime" of the products increased and, accordingly, the frequency of the "update" of the goods by the consumer decreased. And the cost has increased ...
  12. Leisure
    Leisure 19 July 2013 15: 18
    0
    The middle class in China is not beneficial to global corporations. Wages will increase, costs will rise, production will go to the "poor" countries, just as, with a general drop in demand for goods in the world, it will lead to a decrease in production in China.