Military Review

The latest apocalyptic forecasts of Western economists: the collapse of oil prices, the crisis in Russia

82
Our western "partners" continue to write horror stories for those economies of the world that, as they say, are tied to the prices of hydrocarbons. One of these economies, as we are well aware, is the financial system of Russia, economic well-being and, as a result, the strengthening of the geopolitical role of which are clearly not included in the plans of the mentioned partners.


The latest apocalyptic forecasts of Western economists: the collapse of oil prices, the crisis in Russia


So, the other forecast of the next western forecaster was published the other day, the total number of which is legion. At this time, John John Levellin, who at one time headed the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, shared his vision with the world economic community about the development of the situation on the oil market. Mr. Levellin concocted his apocalyptic prediction together with an office like Puma Energy. So what is the prognostic apocalypticism of Mr. Levellin?

It turns out that literally through 7-8 years the world expects a situation opposite to that which manifested itself in the 70-s of the last century.

To make it clear what is at stake, we touch historical retrospective oil prices. Before the Arab-Israeli war of 1973, the price of “black gold,” which no one thought seriously to call gold at that time, resembled something purely symbolic. The developed West bought oil in countries where production was at a high level, at a price of about a dollar per barrel. For example, in 1973 (before the start of the conflict), the price of a barrel of oil in the world was $ 1,27, and, obviously, more than satisfied the United States and Great Britain, which “fed” oil at bargain prices, developing their economies.

In the 1973 conflict, the same United States, Great Britain and a number of other Western states unequivocally supported Israel in the “Doomsday War”. This caused a storm of indignation in the Arab world. The perturbation resulted in the nationalization of oil rigs, which in most cases were owned by American and British companies, who were taking 78% net profit from oil production by themselves. After the nationalization of the towers, a number of Arab countries declare an embargo on the supply of crude oil to the West.

The price of a barrel soars 5 times, but still remains quite low (compared to today's prices). During the following years, when the US economy was forced to go into a deficit due to the war in Vietnam, the oil went up in comparison with 1973 a year almost 15 times! As they say, a freebie of one dollar per barrel has come to an end, and with it came the understanding that oil is not just an energy carrier, but also a strategic resource that can painfully click on the nose of even the most superpower thinking about itself.

Since then, the West has had to get into debt more and more to ensure the growth of its economy at the expense of other countries' oil resources. And so that the debts could somehow be reduced and lead to a digestible value, the strategy of the so-called oil wars was developed. Over time, the planet has deigned to watch these wars in Iraq (twice), Libya and other countries of the world. The United States even urgently had to make friends with the main "democrats" of the Middle East - the monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula, who eventually began to think a lot about themselves, wielding friendship with the States and often trying to dictate conditions from the height of their dwarf growth.

Naturally, the dependence on the price of oil and, as a result, the dependence on the mood of the oil-producing countries of the USA was not impressive. And that is why the West, headed by the same States, is already 40 for years, trying with all its might to bring back the times when oil was worth pennies and gave huge profits to economies that use it to develop the industrial sector.
Another gentleman who decided to find an opportunity to return peace to 1973 the year when oil flowed like a river at one dollar price, and John Levellin mentioned at the beginning of the material became. He said that in 2020, the world price of oil could fall by half, and eventually it would come to the 30-dollar mark. At the same time, the forecaster claims that this process will bury the economies of those countries that today lead the oil industry in the classical way and will bring to a new level those countries that are producing shale hydrocarbons.

The direction of Levellin's forecast is understandable. He needs to somehow cheer up those authorities who give him (gave) work. And for these same authorities, there is no better encouragement than the news in the form of a forecast of an “expert” that the Western economy, by 2020, will again break out to the place that is ahead of the rest of the world, having buried the world’s oil-producing leaders in their fragments. , for example). They say that we are still hoo, we will show you the American “gadget mother” with our slates. If Levellin and his colleagues took off their shoes and patted them on the podium - it would be even more convincing ...

Meanwhile, with all due respect to the authority of such an unsinkable forecaster, whom Lewellin has been lately, other forecasts must also be taken into account. As they say, slates are shale, and no one has canceled the tendency for the exhaustion of natural resources. To produce hydrocarbons every year is becoming more difficult, and, therefore, economically more expensive. If so, can oil fall three times in price, as the prognostic report of the said gentleman says. After all, it is possible in the Sahara to try to grow wheat, bringing black soil, tons of water, labor, and fertilizer. Will a ton of wheat grown anywhere in the Stavropol region or in Canada become cheaper from the appearance of Saharan wheat on the market? The probability of that is negligible.

By the way, the report of Levellin has nothing to do with reality, they say in the International Monetary Fund. They conducted their own research of the oil market and on this basis announced that due to the decline in world oil reserves and the need to use new (more expensive) technologies for its production, the price of a barrel of oil will at least remain in the corridor in which it is now, and, at most, will grow. And waiting for the price of “black gold” to fall to 30-35 dollars per barrel can either impassable romantics, or those who wish to make a comforting compliment to the Western economy and hurt those for whom falling oil prices, to put it mildly, is not good news .

Today, the price of a barrel of oil is at around 103-106 dollars per barrel. A certain increase in the price of oil in recent days has occurred due to the new Egyptian revolutionary manifestations. As is known, President Mursi, who was elected after the overthrow of Mubarak, became the next victim of the victorious “democracy”. Mohammed Mursi is now in the hands of the military, who will decide his future fate. And you have to do the same: American “achievements” in the extraction of shale oil didn’t understand, they couldn’t affect the price jump associated with the overthrow of the Egyptian president ... Why couldn’t the oil shale to keep oil at the right price for the USA? I would like to address this question to Mr. Levellin. Maybe because the shale revolution in oil production is more like a fiction that interested parties are trying to, forgive, vtyuhat, presenting the desired for the real.

Well, in order for Levellin and his fellow gentlemen to draw less attention, it’s time for the Russian authorities to think about how real it is, and not in words, to jump off the oil needle on which the Russian economic system is sitting. In principle, it is known how ... Only this is what our esteemed oil gobblers will say to this - a question that, it seems, our authorities care much more than what situation this total dependence can lead the country in the end.
Author:
82 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. INTER
    INTER 5 July 2013 08: 27
    15
    We will not die of hunger! The main thing is to understand this and reject trinkets and unnecessary expenses in the name of the fatherland. The rest is nonsense, we have everything in Russia. Let the rest worry who has virtually nothing.
    1. Furnace driver
      Furnace driver 5 July 2013 08: 44
      19
      Quote: INTER
      We will not die of hunger! The main thing is to understand this and reject trinkets and unnecessary expenses in the name of the fatherland. The rest is nonsense, we have everything in Russia. Let the rest worry who has virtually nothing.
      so that Muscovites, and those that are younger, for the most part abandoned material wealth, but in a dream this can only be dreamed of.
      1. INTER
        INTER 5 July 2013 09: 09
        +2
        Quote: Furnace Driver
        so that Muscovites, and those that are younger, for the most part abandoned material wealth, but in a dream this can only be dreamed of.

        The main thing is to present everything correctly)))))
      2. Skiff
        Skiff 5 July 2013 09: 35
        -3
        What does Muscovites and material goods have to do to get them to work hard, in Moscow Muscovites don’t rain from black caviar and iPhones, they work 12 hours and have good things.
        1. OTTO Boond
          OTTO Boond 5 July 2013 10: 08
          -3
          Quote: Skiff
          in Moscow Muscovites don’t rain from black caviar and iPhones, they work for 12 hours and have good things to do.

          truly true
          1. INTER
            INTER 5 July 2013 10: 18
            +2
            Quote: Skiff
            What does Muscovites and material goods have to do to get them to work hard, in Moscow Muscovites don’t rain from black caviar and iPhones, they work 12 hours and have good things.

            And not only to Muscovites, the whole Russian people basically earn money by labor, and those who get it without difficulty both in Moscow and in the regions are a minority or, for clarity, close to the top of the government. But, at least the supreme power takes steps to change the situation.
        2. seller trucks
          seller trucks 5 July 2013 11: 20
          +4
          Quote: Skiff
          Moscow does not rain on Muscovites from black caviar and iPhones


          do not eat black - puffs, iPhone - threshing floor
        3. Vasilenko Vladimir
          Vasilenko Vladimir 5 July 2013 13: 05
          +4

          Skiff (2) RU  Today, 09:35 ↑


          What does Muscovites and material goods have to do to get them to work hard, in Moscow Muscovites don’t rain from black caviar and iPhones, they work 12 hours and have good things.

          Well, the fact that the prices of Moscow and, accordingly, the RFP are too high and this is a fact, I'm sorry if a kilo of meat costs as much as a cup of coffee in Moscow, this is a bust
        4. Misantrop
          Misantrop 5 July 2013 22: 24
          +5
          Quote: Skiff
          in Moscow Muscovites don’t rain from black caviar and iPhones, they work for 12 hours and have good things to do.
          In Moscow, they work for 4 hours, and the remaining 20 go to work or vice versa. It's time to put sleeping cars in the subway lol
        5. Letun
          Letun 5 July 2013 22: 53
          +5
          Quote: Skiff
          What does Muscovites and material goods have to do to get them to work hard, in Moscow Muscovites don’t rain from black caviar and iPhones, they work 12 hours and have good things.

          Chegevara, do you even know what you are writing about? In Moscow, they work 12 hours a day and receive 60-70 thousand, but in the rest of Russia you know how much? Nurses in the hospital each 7 thousand, teachers in ordinary schools 12 - 15. Engineers in the crumbling factories as well. And about any regional centers of Ryazan, Kaluga, Smolensk, I generally keep quiet. It’s just that if Moscow lived the same way as the rest of Russia, the Kremlin would have been dismantled for a long time by bricks, and those who rule the country there would be carried out on a pitchfork.
          1. pavlo
            pavlo 6 July 2013 00: 36
            0
            Although I’m not a Muscovite or even a Russian, I’m working for 12 hours, don’t tell my slippers, I arrived at eight in the morning and left half past eight in the evening, well, well !!! Lunch is half an hour.
          2. zvereok
            zvereok 6 July 2013 02: 08
            0
            Tver. Five years ago, a security guard the head of a group in the 25 pyaterochka store, no less, maybe a long time ago. We continue our career growth, the supply manager of the warehouse at one factory (next to the convicts) - 35 thousand. Prices in the store for products below. I’m not a Muscovite, but I live in the region, and I work in the same place, about which I heard about the salary in Moscow.
        6. Dubox
          Dubox 6 July 2013 20: 39
          0
          And you don’t know that in the outback, even 10 parts from Muscovites don’t earn even for days?
        7. user
          user 6 July 2013 20: 53
          0
          And all oil and gas is extracted, and in breaks the Academy of the RAS is being reformed
      3. Zopuhhh
        Zopuhhh 5 July 2013 12: 22
        0
        [/ quote] so that Muscovites, yes those younger, for the most part abandoned material wealth, but in a dream this can only be dreamed of. [/ quote]

        Just do not need your speculative conclusions ... Office plankton in Moscow was able to raise no more than 100 loafers, at the peak of the white ... bottom movement. So we refuse and we
      4. fzr1000
        fzr1000 5 July 2013 15: 06
        -1
        Are non-Muscovites all altruists? But nothing that the population of Moscow since 1991 more than 1,5 times officially increased at the expense of visitors. Who do you consider Muscovites and how do you define them?
        1. Vasilenko Vladimir
          Vasilenko Vladimir 5 July 2013 15: 08
          +5
          Yes, no one touches Muscovites, although during the Union, if in Moscow he asked how to get there and they answered you politely, then a hundred pounds was the same visitor if the Muscovite was rude.
      5. toldanger
        toldanger 5 July 2013 21: 28
        0
        Speak correctly comrade.
      6. Gladiatir-zlo
        Gladiatir-zlo 5 July 2013 22: 26
        0
        Well, so we are talking about the prospect of not a year or two, but at least 20-30 years, but
        that's a lot.
    2. Averias
      Averias 5 July 2013 11: 54
      +5
      Quote: INTER
      The rest is nonsense, we have everything in Russia.


      I completely agree with you. We have everything and more. Attempts to take this away from us are doomed to failure. Everything that happened after the collapse of the USSR and what is happening now is proof of that. No matter how the opposition-liberal "orators" shouted from the "high tribunes". They drum into our heads that everything is bad with us and it is getting worse. But this is not so. What they did during the Puking and EBN, we still have to disentangle it for a long time - we will disentangle it and not from the same ... we climbed out. But the most important thing - the resources of the country and the COUNTRIES itself - remained with us. And slowly and gradually - we again "straighten our shoulders." Russia, as a superpower - TO BE !!

      PS I communicate a lot with people from there - they, with difficulty, admit (ambitions do not allow and pseudo pride) - they are bad, and every day it is getting worse. That "cloudless" life to which they are accustomed is over. The slogan - USA, a country of equal opportunities and everyone can become a millionaire - is nothing more than a fairy tale.
    3. host
      host 5 July 2013 12: 20
      +5
      In winter, Western Europe will be very soft and supple, because the cold is not an aunt.
      And even now European refineries are already "beeping" without Russian oil.
      General Frost will restore order in the minds of Europeans.
    4. Dimanrus86
      Dimanrus86 5 July 2013 13: 05
      0
      That's for sure)))
    5. starshina78
      starshina78 5 July 2013 21: 03
      +3
      I would not be so optimistic. Everyone knows why the USSR collapsed, but not everyone knows that the United States had a hand in this in the sense that, in collusion with the oil importing countries, they sharply dropped oil prices (this was discussed in the article). The fact is that even then (in the mid-eighties) the USSR did not have extra money (foreign currency) to buy products from abroad, consumer goods, many goods necessary for the daily life of the people. There was a shortage (who lived then remembers the shelves of shops with birch sap), and, as a result, the prices went up (remember anecdote: vodka became six and eight, we won't stop drinking anyway; tell Ilyich to handle ten). Even then, the economy of the USSR was dependent on energy prices, although the economy was developed, factories, factories and collective farms were operating. What now ? Almost 80 percent of food is imported, machine tools and industrial equipment are imported, we fly on Boeings and Airbuses, drive Audi and geldings, wear Chinese, watch Japanese TV, any phones, but not Russian (even supposedly , the Russians wanted to release it in Taiwan). Where is it Russian? We are completely dependent on imports! Who was in the village recently? I go there often (Penza region). Are there many cows in the village? It's good if two or three per village, or even not at all. The fields are overgrown. This is with regard to agriculture. And what about the industry? In my hometown, there were four largest factories producing heavy engineering products, steel, chemical products, nuclear fuel for nuclear power plants and other reactors. What now? Tyazhmash grunted practically thanks to the "effective managers", Khimmash barely pulls, the metallurgical one seems to groan, one atomic one moves. And so practically everywhere. I was in Orel - almost all the factories are standing, in Ivanovo - one crane, in Bryansk, too, barely - barely. So oil prices will collapse and we have a khan!
      1. Furnace driver
        Furnace driver 8 July 2013 09: 08
        -1
        Quote: starshina78
        Why the USSR collapsed, everyone knows, but not everyone knows that the United States had a hand in this in the sense that in collusion with countries importing oil, oil prices were sharply thrown (this was mentioned in the article)

        Obviously not because of oil prices collapsed, but because of the "corrupt" in power.
    6. Quiet
      Quiet 7 July 2013 22: 08
      0
      we have everything in Russia

      Still used the army to rearm and train .... angry , that would not be invited guests once again on the slope she gave ..... Then it will be all !!!!
  2. Ruslan67
    Ruslan67 5 July 2013 08: 33
    +4
    For a month, they will shut off the oil and gas faucets and there will be no one to claim for supply disruption. New governments will start to agree from scratch. Question is our government ready for this? request what
    1. Yura
      Yura 5 July 2013 21: 12
      +1
      Quote: Ruslan67
      For a month, they will shut off the oil and gas faucets and there will be no one to claim for supply disruption. New governments will start to agree from scratch. Question is our government ready for this?

      Or maybe they will start fighting with each other for the right to buy our raw materials. This is a joke, although maybe not at all. The West already realized that without raw materialsI can’t create anything with all the high technologies, so the whole whistle (Iraq, Libya, Syria and much more, you won’t list everything), therefore, it’s time for us to understand that we can and must dictate the conditions, otherwise it is impossible with them, with a shoe on the rostrum is a language accessible to their mentality, they take the rest of the conversation for weakness. And yet, the less resources they have, the more they will be forced to create high-tech enterprises in countries with these resources, for example, in addition to tax preferences, cheap labor resources are China, as potential transport resources we can cite the example of cargo delivery across the Arctic Ocean , through railway and, in the long term, auto transportation of goods from east to west and vice versa, there are many more resources to list in terms of minerals, agricultural products are also resources that I think will very soon become the main ones, I don’t stop on energy and energy carriers because it is out of discussion i.e. by itself in the first place. Russia has almost everything that the West has, the West does not have much of what Russia has. So Russia go ahead, destroy their mother.
  3. ziqzaq
    ziqzaq 5 July 2013 08: 40
    +2
    Quote: INTER
    We will not die of hunger!

    Where did such gloomy thoughts come from, in the morning and even on Friday, comrade ????
    Careful please pour some tea, eat a bun .....
    1. INTER
      INTER 5 July 2013 10: 19
      +1
      Quote: ziqzaq
      Where did such gloomy thoughts come from, in the morning and even on Friday, comrade ????
      Careful please pour some tea, eat a bun .....

      Okay)))) laughing
  4. Sars
    Sars 5 July 2013 08: 41
    +9
    Iran lives in blockade. And nothing - a self-sufficient economy!
    1. Vadivak
      Vadivak 5 July 2013 08: 53
      19
      Quote: SarS
      Iran lives in blockade. And nothing - a self-sufficient economy!


      Guess who is the owner of Domodedovo? (In terms of profitability, the airport is almost not inferior to London Heathrow: 43% versus 47,2%) I must say right away, do not try, no one knows, the company is managed by foreign companies registered in offshore zones. That's also in the whole Russian economy, money goes over the hill past pensioners, killed roads, ruined collective farms
      1. Russ69
        Russ69 5 July 2013 09: 01
        +6
        Quote: Vadivak
        Guess who is the owner of Domodedovo? (In terms of profitability, the airport is almost not inferior to London Heathrow: 43% versus 47,2%) I must say right away, do not try, no one knows, the company is managed by foreign companies registered in offshore zones. That's also in the whole Russian economy, money goes over the hill past pensioners, killed roads, ruined collective farms

        All airfields practically, especially in large cities, should at least 51% belong to the state. The most strategic object.
        1. Vadivak
          Vadivak 5 July 2013 09: 05
          +4
          Quote: Russ69
          All airfields practically, especially in large cities, should at least 51% belong to the state.


          They belong to the state, the only question is what?

          "And the invaders go to my pet shop ..."
          Bulat Okudzhava
        2. Vasilenko Vladimir
          Vasilenko Vladimir 5 July 2013 13: 11
          +3
          Quote: Russ69
          All airfields practically, especially in large cities, should at least 51% belong to the state. The most strategic object

          yes, by and large, it was necessary to give private owners only light industry and the service sector, well, and if there were enough pennies on their own, then build forward for the tanks
        3. baltika-18
          baltika-18 5 July 2013 15: 16
          +2
          Quote: Russ69
          All airfields practically, especially in large cities, should at least 51% belong to the state. The most strategic object.

          They should, but do not belong thanks to the "wise" policies of the president and the government.
      2. INTER
        INTER 5 July 2013 10: 21
        0
        Quote: Vadivak
        Guess who is the owner of Domodedovo? (In terms of profitability, the airport is almost not inferior to London Heathrow: 43% versus 47,2%) I must say right away, do not try, no one knows, the company is managed by foreign companies registered in offshore zones. That's also in the whole Russian economy, money goes over the hill past pensioners, killed roads, ruined collective farms

        Moscow was not built right away, you won’t change everything at once!
  5. Vanek
    Vanek 5 July 2013 08: 41
    +3
    Europe:

    - And in our apartment there is gas.

    Yura Shevchuk (DDT):

    - We will again learn to love and be friends with our heads
    Freebie and our eternal disputes with you will stop
    All mermaids and fairies will pray for us
    When we drink all the oil, when we smoke all the gas!


    Russia:

    - And we are the taiga. Firewood all grab.
    1. Karlsonn
      Karlsonn 5 July 2013 13: 55
      +1
      Quote: Vanek
      Russia:

      - And we are the taiga. Firewood all grab.


      Ukraine:
      - And we will ensure the transportation of European citizens to the taiga for logging and the return transportation of firewood from the taiga to Europe! hi

      The main thing is to get on the traffic stream !!! And there - do not get lost !!! drinks
  6. vol46an
    vol46an 5 July 2013 08: 50
    +7
    1973 year is the peak of the Brezhnev period. Democratic political scientists explained Brezhnev’s well-being with the oil needle of that period. And at current hundred-dollar prices, industry is almost destroyed, agriculture is numb. One thing is good - the number of billionaires is growing steadily.
  7. Slogin
    Slogin 5 July 2013 08: 56
    0
    we’re sleeping and seeing how to bring down the price of oil)) they won’t think of it: here they started to develop new fields in Alaska (where the oil industry supposedly is just Tryndets for 1000 years), and then they suddenly took the FIRST place in the world in production; The tale continues in the same style. lol On this topic, I recommend reading Starikov's book "Cherche la oil"
  8. Russ69
    Russ69 5 July 2013 08: 58
    10
    Quote: vol46an
    1973 - the peak of the Brezhnev period. Democratic political scientists explained Brezhnev’s well-being with the oil needle of that period. And at current hundred-dollar prices, industry is almost destroyed, agriculture is numb.

    Stalin was able to lift the country without oil and gas in a short time.
    1. baltika-18
      baltika-18 5 July 2013 09: 29
      +6
      Quote: Russ69
      Stalin was able to lift the country without oil and gas in a short time.

      Stalin had Soviets, Union and Socialism.
      And Putin now has a Duma with Edrom, multi-confessionalism and oligarchism.
    2. Vasilenko Vladimir
      Vasilenko Vladimir 5 July 2013 13: 14
      +1
      Quote: Russ69
      Stalin was able to raise the country without oil and gas in a short time

      it’s only the question is how much ideological remains and how will society react to these methods?
  9. SPBOBL
    SPBOBL 5 July 2013 08: 59
    0
    DO NOT WAIT! -Answer to our muddy "" PARTNERS "" ...
  10. Muxauk
    Muxauk 5 July 2013 09: 02
    +1
    I like to read Western analysts, the worse they describe the state of Russia, the better we live))))))
    and it’s necessary to jump off this needle, it’s hard of course, but it’s necessary, and we will be happy
    1. aviator_IAS
      aviator_IAS 5 July 2013 15: 35
      0
      Quote: MuxaHuk
      I like to read Western analysts, the worse they describe the state of Russia, the better we live))))))
      and it’s necessary to jump off this needle, it’s hard of course, but it’s necessary, and we will be happy


      I wonder what this analyst John Lowellin smoked? Obviously something very picky! I’m directly worried about his health, and you can completely get smoked.

      He said that in 2020, the world oil price could fall by half, and eventually come to a $ 30 mark. At the same time, the forecaster states that this process will bury the economies of those countries that today conduct oil production in the classical way and will bring to a new level those countries that gravitate towards the production of shale hydrocarbons.


      While the oil price was below $ 100, no one even stuttered about the shale. Well, yes, someone will sell oil for 30, when production costs for example 50. fool It remains only to wish him success in business. smile . To argue that the price of producing shale oil using different chemistry, underground explosions and other dances with a tambourine will be cheaper than the one that rushing out of the ground almost by gravity can only a very large analyst. Even in the Gulf of Mexico, production from deep-water wells is cheaper, despite the obvious technical problems and the need to evacuate the platform each time with another tropical storm.
  11. Cat
    Cat 5 July 2013 09: 02
    +3
    Our Western "partners" continue to compose horror stories for those economies of the world that, as they say, are tied to the prices of hydrocarbons.

    I wonder what these same "partners" think of those countries whose economies are tied to the price of painted paper? They are not in danger there in the foreseeable future?
  12. Gray-haired Siberian
    Gray-haired Siberian 5 July 2013 09: 03
    +3
    Shale hydrocarbons are much more expensive to produce than conventional ones. This is recognized by everyone, including in the West. And in the same West they say that the price of oil will fall soon. This is probably because its cost will increase. Strange logic, however.
    1. nov_tech.vrn
      nov_tech.vrn 5 July 2013 13: 09
      0
      they are trying, to enchant her, suddenly cheaper, well, in extreme cases, the suckers will behave
    2. Vasilenko Vladimir
      Vasilenko Vladimir 5 July 2013 13: 15
      0
      Quote: Gray-haired Siberian
      .And in the same West they say that the price of oil will fall soon.

      it's just such a mantra
  13. 128mgb
    128mgb 5 July 2013 09: 03
    +2
    Quote: vol46an
    1973 year is the peak of the Brezhnev period. Democratic political scientists explained Brezhnev’s well-being with the oil needle of that period. And at current hundred-dollar prices, industry is almost destroyed, agriculture is numb. One thing is good - the number of billionaires is growing steadily.

    You, my friend, do not forget that the system is now a little different, capitalist however. And the capitalist cares only about his pocket. And the dollar is not the same.
  14. Imigrantt
    Imigrantt 5 July 2013 09: 12
    0
    To God - God's, to Caesar - what is Caesar's! We are Russians, God is with us! But the Caesars have a problem with both vision and head! To hide our problems behind contrived strangers, if any, we will solve them - the devil is not so terrible as he is painted! Let them solve their problems first! "And they just have heaps of shoe polish!" God help !!!
  15. PPO-1980
    PPO-1980 5 July 2013 09: 18
    0
    We will not die alive! We have a lot more to eat.
  16. GELEZNII_KAPUT
    GELEZNII_KAPUT 5 July 2013 09: 28
    +2
    Saudis and Qatar can bring down oil prices as before the collapse of the USSR in the collusion of the United States, and since they are not allies of the United States ... at the first sign of it, put them on the look that their oil and gas complex could suddenly turn into a pile of scrap metal! am
    1. fartfraer
      fartfraer 5 July 2013 10: 51
      +1
      and how do you differ from the Americans who are ready to bomb the whole world for their own well-being?
      1. Vasilenko Vladimir
        Vasilenko Vladimir 5 July 2013 13: 22
        +3
        Well, why nothing, in fact, such a conspiracy can be called an act of aggression, as it is aimed at undermining our state, this is the main goal of such an action
        1. fartfraer
          fartfraer 5 July 2013 18: 50
          0
          Vladimir, in fact, the United States is working on the same "essence". They declared the whole world a zone of their interests and throw bombs wherever they want. And the aggression in your comment is completely out of place, this can be called dumping on the world market, but not aggression.
          1. Vasilenko Vladimir
            Vasilenko Vladimir 5 July 2013 19: 06
            +1
            not quite so, the zone of interests and the hostile act against the state are two different things

            dumping is either a means of pressure or a means of destroying a competitor, that the essence is a hostile act
            1. fartfraer
              fartfraer 5 July 2013 19: 19
              0
              excuse me, but if Qatar is dumped in Europe, it will not work for aggression. In essence, your like-minded person proposes to bomb a country that will undermine the economic well-being of our country by acquiring earlier Russian markets. This is not aggression.
              further, the states understand that they need to control the resources (oil) in order to continue to exist safely. therefore they bomb the dissenters. in your opinion, if the Russian Federation will bomb someone for the sake of controlling the markets, then this is a reflection of aggression, and if the United States is doing the same, then this is "world lawlessness"? a strange logic.
              1. Vasilenko Vladimir
                Vasilenko Vladimir 5 July 2013 19: 33
                0
                hydrocarbons are not the sale of seeds on the market (although it may not fly in tambourine for seeds), in one separate part of the world it will not work.
                if the result of these actions is a collapse of the state’s economy, the state is obliged to react to this, bombing by the way is absolutely not necessary
                1. fartfraer
                  fartfraer 5 July 2013 20: 25
                  0
                  here, you have already agreed that threats like ". at the first sign of it, to make them look that their oil and gas complex may suddenly turn into a heap of scrap metal!" is not the smartest decision.
                  1. Vasilenko Vladimir
                    Vasilenko Vladimir 5 July 2013 21: 37
                    +1
                    I agreed that a sniper shot is sometimes better than a howitzer shot.
                    1. fartfraer
                      fartfraer 5 July 2013 21: 58
                      -1
                      ok, now you’ll probably agree that a Qatari sniper (for example), having fallen who should be in the Russian Federation, will only be a fighter with the aggressor. Well, at least from the side of Qatar.
                      1. GELEZNII_KAPUT
                        GELEZNII_KAPUT 6 July 2013 09: 03
                        0
                        I do not propose to bomb, but to warn that monopoly is not welcome))) ... as a result of their conspiracy, we lost so many people to the collapse of the USSR that war is not necessary! hi
                      2. GELEZNII_KAPUT
                        GELEZNII_KAPUT 6 July 2013 09: 14
                        0
                        or how do you like this anology: they will put a knife to your throat (a knife that will be cut off by their mercenaries), and you will have a gun in your pocket from which you can shoot that you won’t cut ?! Be sure to shoot! ... and so the collapse in oil prices is a knife to the throat of Russia !!!
                      3. Vasilenko Vladimir
                        Vasilenko Vladimir 6 July 2013 10: 20
                        0
                        you went somewhere completely wrong topic
                        if we are discussing the benefits of the Russian Federation, this is one thing; if the benefits of Qatar are different, if the third is US benefits
                        we are talking about what the reduction in oil prices is for the Russian Federation, and not for Qatar
                      4. fartfraer
                        fartfraer 6 July 2013 15: 47
                        0
                        "we are talking about what the decline in oil prices is for the Russian Federation, not for Qatar" - the same as for the United States the transition to the sale of oil for dollars to any other currency. Does this mean the right of the United States to bomb dissent? , in my opinion not categorical.
                        "and to warn that monopoly is not welcome))) .." - well, since you mentioned monopoly, it is not welcome, that is why they do not say to Qatar categorically no in Europe, although delivery is cheaper from us.
                        "or how do you like this analogy: they will put a knife to your throat .." - love analogies? no question. how do you sell a car (good, without breaking the price), are ready to throw off a little at the auction, but another seller comes (stronger ) and tells you that the price needs to be raised, otherwise your house will be burned down. What will you do?
                        "you went somewhere completely on the wrong topic" - yes? that is, reasoning about "snipers", stories about piles of scrap metal in case someone does something that you do not like this that topic? Are the means good for holding the markets? If not, then which ones you categorically reject?
                      5. Vasilenko Vladimir
                        Vasilenko Vladimir 6 July 2013 16: 00
                        +1
                        I don’t remember that the Russian Federation or the Union would impose its oil on someone, but the amers have imposed the bucks, your logic from the series that the sharpie is inviolable
                        Quote: fartfraer
                        simpler — are all means good for holding markets

                        sorry, but we are not talking about markets but about the state as a whole.
                        furthermore, you are substituting fair play and fraud
                        it’s one thing if someone refused your product simply because it is not profitable for him to buy it and it’s completely different if he refuses to destroy your economy, in order to take the same product later for a penny or for nothing.
                      6. fartfraer
                        fartfraer 6 July 2013 16: 56
                        0
                        we are talking about the markets, re-read the comments. as for cheating, etc.-some "patriots" (if I need to explain why in quotes) write here "turn off the gas", "block the oil pipes", etc., if they do not like what -What in the statements of European rulers, etc., is this not blackmail?
                        "It is one thing if someone refused your product simply because it is not profitable for him to buy it, and it is completely different if he refuses in order to destroy your economy," - Qatar does not buy our oil, therefore he cannot refuse it and undermine the economy of the Russian Federation Europe buys, but if, as a result of the Arab Spring, Qatar will extend an oil pipeline to Europe, then its oil will be cheaper, because production there is cheaper, and the route from Siberia (oil) will be longer, therefore, a higher transportation price will be added to the higher production price . and the Arabs will be able to drop the price simply because of these two factors, having the same profit as the RF now. and the RF will be in the red. Further, in the market, no one is obliged to adjust to the seller who sells the same thing, but more expensive, do you agree? therefore, Qatar, without working at a loss and without dumping, can profit from a lower oil price, or receive a greater profit at the same price.
                        "I don’t remember that the Russian Federation or the Union would impose its oil on someone, but the amers imposed the bucks, your logic is from the series that the sharper is inviolable" -you are wrong, I don’t say anything like that. It was stated (by your adherent) that " the collapse of oil prices is a knife to the throat of Russia !!! ". I explained to you that Qatar can drop the price (not only Qatar, the OPEC countries) having an oil pipeline without any problems. Europe is not obliged to pay for the yachts of our tycoons, it will buy where cheaper, I hope you understand it)
                        that is, Europe will refuse simply having a better offer from OPEC and that’s it.
                        “I'm sorry, but we're not talking about markets but about the state as a whole.” - no question, let's talk about the state. Is Europe or the Arabs obligated to support our economy, or should they do what is beneficial to them?
                        Well, the most important question is what will the Russian Federation take in the event of such an unfavorable development of events?
  • pa_nik
    pa_nik 5 July 2013 09: 34
    +2
    Quote: INTER
    We will not die of hunger!



    one hundred%! Cottages have not gone away .. Survival experience - rich good Moreover, practically in the absence of funds. But the "golden billion" will have a hard time recourse As if in the cannibal faith did not spread belay ..on the other hand, something that I, they already worship those gods. Golden calves fool
    1. Vasilenko Vladimir
      Vasilenko Vladimir 5 July 2013 13: 27
      0
      they will only have to be tight if they start turning off the light like we did in the 90s, they’ll rest in elevators and toilets from claustrophobia, only it’s good for niggas they’ll start robbing at once supermarkets
  • papss
    papss 5 July 2013 09: 38
    +1
    in 7-8 years, the world expects a situation opposite to the one that appeared in the 70s of the last century
    , complete nonsense ... apparently, he himself does not know what he writes and what oil is ... This can not be essentially because the production volume has increased the number of industries producing tens of thousands of types of oil products ... 70 years have passed since the 40s of the last century ... during this time, much has changed ...
  • The gentleman
    The gentleman 5 July 2013 09: 42
    +5
    Dear author of the article, well, let's make our forecast. Do you really have any colleagues from economists? I wrote earlier regarding the Davos forum with a proposal to make my forecast and give them all to read. make an economic forecast, we will adjust the legal one for it and everything will be fine.
    1. Volodin
      5 July 2013 09: 56
      +2
      Timur, this is a sensible sentence. We will work on it.
      1. Egen
        Egen 5 July 2013 10: 58
        +4
        I support Timur - say "b" too :) hi . I understand the limited size of the article, but nevertheless, although Levelin and a well-known person are right in some ways (but more wrong), you also don’t have all 100% for sure, so the truth is somewhere ... nearby :)
        For example.
        Yes, oil can fall. As well as rose. But no one mentions the purchasing power of the dollar and the benefits acquired for it as a unit of calculation. But in chemistry, plastic, and especially products (fertilizers), and even in metal (smelting, electric power), sometimes up to 40% of the cost of oil sits. The price of oil will be higher - goods will be more expensive. The cost of production will increase - and so on, a new round. The price of oil will decrease due to overproduction - it will decrease in proportion to the cost of goods, and of course, exchange rates. The essence of this will not change, the proportion will be preserved - if it is on a global scale. In this part, Levelin is right (if only he had thought of it, which seems like he is not a man)
        But then what? - further solid garbage.
        1) why get hung up on oil? Oil is only one type of energy resource. What kind of "world reserves" are declining, what are you talking about? Proven oil - well, maybe. And not explored yet? And the gas? Only the newly launched Bovanenkovo ​​field of the _proved_ reserves will be enough for the whole of Europe for a very long time. And Gazprom every year increases about 10% of resources. Those. - they do not decrease, but new ones are explored and put on the balance sheet. And now only _serious_ reconnaissance has gone through the north of Eastern Siberia and to Kamchatka. We have enough coal methane in Kuzbass for the Kuzbass itself for 40 years - these are only explored reserves, and they are still being specified by category. the stage of geological exploration has just begun.
        In addition, gas and even coal are very easily converted to gasoline. Suffice it to recall the Germans. It’s just that nobody needs it now, because according to the feasibility study, gross profit is only 3-5%. Well, and coal in Kuzbass for 300 years of production, only 10% was mined, and this is _explored_ reserves.
      2. The gentleman
        The gentleman 5 July 2013 10: 58
        0
        As lawyers, we will help and analyze the current legislation of the United States and the EU regarding economic development. namely, adopted laws, directives.
        1. Egen
          Egen 5 July 2013 11: 36
          +1
          Quote: Gentleman
          As lawyers, we will help and analyze the current legislation of the United States and the EU regarding economic development.

          Ek you dear waved! hi I tried to analyze the laws and regulations of the United States regarding non-traditional energy resources. Fortunately, I found all the links on some website. But there are 40 federal pieces and every state has 20-30 pieces - I just knocked down the list, read a couple, ofigel, and set sail :)))
      3. Egen
        Egen 5 July 2013 11: 27
        0
        Next.
        2) Once again about shale gas and prices.
        In general, they also speak somewhat incorrectly about "shale gas". Or oil. In fact, they belong to the category of "unconventional hydrocarbon energy resources", which also include the same coalbed methane and other even more exotic ones. All of them have one thing in common - a higher production cost compared to traditional ones. For example, for traditional gas, the prime cost is 1000m3, the minimum is $ 5. Obviously, + pipe = price on the domestic market - about $ 10. The cost of coalbed methane is about the same, but on site, without a pipe. The export price of Russian gas (albeit with the cost of transport to Europe) is probably on average $ 300. And the prime cost of _shale gas_ is about $ 15 locally. That is, for the surrounding area (as in Canada - every farmer has in his garden) it is profitable to extract in comparison with the import, but to export it is already questionable, it depends on the infrastructure. For example, it is not profitable for Canadians for the time being for export, and the United States is no longer taking it nearby.
        And the United States now does not want to lower the oil - why, if it’s its own, then it will also crack - and they are trying to keep prices at the current level. At the beginning of the production of CBM, the government gave subsidies to everyone in order to reach a profitable production volume. Then they were abolished - but the profit has already gone. And still there is still a lot where CBM and SMM are subsidized by 5 or even 10 bucks. But with us, no. Otherwise, everyone would have been in surplus gas for a long time ...
        Therefore, _non-traditional_ resources, to which including slate also refers, not fiction, but reality, but it is not absolute, but relative, as Einstein said - in time and place. At least, in Gazprom they are quite careful about such matters and reckon with opportunities, but for now, they are developing the domestic market :)
        In general, this topic does not completely correlate with the theme of the forum, but it still concerns: energy wars will certainly happen over time, there’s no escape from this, but still not in 2020 ... :)
        hi
  • Jin
    Jin 5 July 2013 09: 52
    +1
    It's funny. On the one hand, Nata and fanning the fire of the "Arab Spring" tried for themselves, but did better for us, because this turmoil raises the price per barrel. On the other hand, it relaxes our country, in the sense that it does not stimulate the growth of production. It is foolish to have such resources and potential as we do, to depend on gas and oil. Production can and should be developed by leaps and bounds, because no matter how long the rope twists, the end will still be ...
  • 1304
    1304 5 July 2013 09: 57
    0
    He probably hoped that everyone would rush to sell them oil until he fell in price.
    But the fakir was drunk and the trick failed.
  • Tuzik
    Tuzik 5 July 2013 10: 24
    0
    oil is in any case a commodity, but American and European candy wrappers can become much cheaper in relation to oil, as if they wouldn’t buy a loaf of bread for $ 100 in 5 years.
    1. fartfraer
      fartfraer 5 July 2013 11: 01
      +2
      while oil is sold for dollars, will not fall in price
  • KononAV
    KononAV 5 July 2013 10: 50
    0
    so interesting to read such nonsense)))
  • morpogr
    morpogr 5 July 2013 11: 11
    0
    shale mining is the killing of nature. Here they scare the public.
    1. Egen
      Egen 5 July 2013 11: 50
      0
      Quote: morpogr
      shale mining is the killing of nature.

      Well, where did you get that? hi :)
      Yes, somewhere in my place there was a Canadian movie, like a farmer, they lit water from a tap, I also saw how they put a pipe in a river, and on top of it they set fire to a torch. You probably about it? :) But it was only a couple of times, Haliburton paid a fine for this :) And it was not even a violation of the drilling technology - just an unforeseen geological shift, well, the guys are not well explored, it happens :), as a result - a breakthrough of water horizons ... the same reason was somehow due to a crack in the casing ... But in general, you have to try to manage this way :) You look at other Canadian videos, where farmers in the yards have small, stand-alone installations, and everyone is happy: ) ... Better go take a look wink
      1. nov_tech.vrn
        nov_tech.vrn 5 July 2013 13: 06
        0
        hi zhenek, something was not visible, of course, the extraction of shale oil is not a murder of nature, it's just such technologies, well, dirty, well these Europeans will wake up and will also be doing hydraulic fracturing, but the locals understand what they are in this nature same commercials, producers of shale oil, let them watch, so as not to forget how their land looked than nature, and even these, in the yards of the installation, you can give an Oscar, so believable.
        1. Egen
          Egen 5 July 2013 13: 57
          0
          Quote: nov_tech.vrn
          just such technologies, well, dirty

          Yes, everything is dirty :) And for us in Novokuznetsk, for example, in general! :(
          Quote: nov_tech.vrn
          will also be fracturing

          And what have hydraulic fractures? The impact of hydraulic fracturing on the environment is only the 1 side, and that impact with new technologies is almost leveled. First, the most harmful in hydraulic fracturing is proppant, there is not much of it in the fluid. Now in Kuzbass we even performed hydraulic fracturing in water with a weak solution of potassium - chlorine, with ceramic sand. Then everything settles in the sumps, part is evaporated, and the water is dumped on the relief cleaner than in the river :) It's on the coal seams, and on the shale Canadians went even further - they pump water back, in a closed cycle. Well, there they have more inclusive rocks, this will not work with coal ...
          I’m saying, if it’s interesting, you’ll go see for yourself, talk to professionals, not journalists ... :)
          hi
  • Yun Klob
    Yun Klob 5 July 2013 11: 46
    0
    We have reformed medicine and the army, now we are reforming science and generally Europe’s kandets.
  • serjant4
    serjant4 5 July 2013 12: 03
    +3
    Quote: OTTO Boond
    Quote: Skiff
    in Moscow Muscovites don’t rain from black caviar and iPhones, they work for 12 hours and have good things to do.

    truly true

    home-subway-work-subway-house ... to get benefits, we plow without stopping ... somehow ...
    1. fartfraer
      fartfraer 5 July 2013 22: 05
      0
      you will be surprised — almost everywhere they plow to get benefits. there is only one joke — being in Moscow I watched (2008) the work of a concrete carpenter. (according to the vacancy newspaper) it was equal to 3-3.5 TR for cubic meters (if there is a registration Moscow or region), our rate did not rise above 1.5 (and then before the crisis). This is not a collision, understand correctly. It's just amazing everything somehow. Therefore, they climb into Moscow
      1. fartfraer
        fartfraer 5 July 2013 22: 10
        0
        at a glance, I typed vacancies in Moscow and in Tomsk (for example, a "loader" - in one city 25-27, in another 12-17. I will not indicate which parts of the country I will not specifically, I hope you will guess without prompts
  • JIaIIoTb
    JIaIIoTb 5 July 2013 16: 04
    0
    Article plus.
    One can comment on the attempts of Western "analysts" with one saying: "Dreaming is not harmful, it is harmful not to dream."
    Sincerely.
  • toldanger
    toldanger 5 July 2013 21: 27
    0
    Fairy tales are loved only by children at night. These Western economists.
  • Naval
    Naval 5 July 2013 22: 52
    0
    John Lancaster alone, mostly at night,
    Something clicked, in which the infrared lens was hidden, -
    And then in normal light it appeared in black
    What we value and love, what the team is proud of.

    The club on Nagornaya street has become a public restroom,
    Our native Central Market has become like a dirty warehouse.
    Distorted by microfilm, GUM has become a small hut,
    And it’s indecent to recall how the Moscow Art Theater appeared.
  • Yves762
    Yves762 5 July 2013 23: 36
    0
    The next apocalyptic forecasts of Western economists: the collapse of oil prices, the crisis in Russia ...

    laughing For me, after all, ours are similarly ill ....
  • Asan Ata
    Asan Ata 6 July 2013 18: 28
    0
    Clear business, if to sit on hydrocarbons forever, something yes will happen. It seems to me that Russia is on the right track, verified by such authorities as the United States. After all, what does America produce? Weapons and oil with gas. So Russia felt for this vein. Every year, the amount of arms sales increases, Russia has occupied its niche in weapons, quietly reducing the market for the United States and Europe. One is not taken into account. The USA provides 60% at the expense of mass media and Hollywood, all that rushes from the TV and PC screens, while Russia in this market is like a child. Of course, the world is English-speaking, it’s easier for them, but you need to look for a replacement: either by replacing the hydrocarbons in proportion (then the Saudi and Qatar will need to squeeze the Adam's apple with the help of Iran), or again, using weapons, capturing the most money-intensive directions. And it is ideal to provide the development of local industry to small and medium-sized businesses, giving them only one sales tax (as in the USA) and the first five years of tax-free (like in China).