Military Review

Near East. Bifurcation point. Replica of Alexander Privalov

22
Increasingly dense flow News from the countries of the Near and Middle East - the very amount that is about to develop into quality. A new - and extremely unexpected - president in Iran. Either a subsiding or a rising wave of turmoil in Turkey. Not to mention Syria, where government forces seem to be starting to conquer the unequal opposition.


The buzz of powerful and often bloody news from this part of the world is such that we simply do not have much time to evaluate. For example, in a slightly quieter time, the Saturday statement by the Egyptian President Mursi would be drawn to a quite noticeable sensation. I recall, speaking at the Cairo stadium, Mursi suddenly announced a complete rupture of all relations with Syria and the closure of the Egyptian embassy in Damascus. And no one, in general, comments on such a loud statement: against the background of a million rally of Erdogan’s supporters or a whole series of demarches of Western countries to step up assistance to the Syrian opposition, people simply do not have time to notice such trifles. "Why is he suddenly, this Mursi?" - that's the whole comment.

What is now being observed in the greater Middle East is a very rare phenomenon — at any rate, on such a scale is rare. The huge system has come to the moment when it is still impossible to work, and it should go on to some new mode. The point of bifurcation is called. The system analysts know that this moment is different in principle unpredictability. In the set of observed events, we can distinguish chains that seem to lead to a completely unambiguous outcome - take it and predict it. Yes, that's just different chains of events with equal certainty lead to different outcomes. And on what trajectory the disordered system will eventually come out, nobody knows - in the region itself they would say, only Allah knows.

The most uncertainties discussed here in the Russian mass media in Syria and Turkey are far from exhausting the entire mass of regional problems. They also need to add the most difficult problems of the monarchies of the Gulf, which, it seems, have not calculated their strength, having too actively engaged themselves in the geopolitical game. Here it is also necessary to take into account the newly accumulated discontent in the countries of the "Arab spring", primarily in Egypt. At first, the local street just wondered: how is it that already a month - already half a year - already a year, how they made a great revolution, and life is getting worse? Now she seems to be starting to boil again.

On the eve of the upcoming international conference on Syria, the opposing sides are seeking to strengthen their positions. Iran, it seems, decided to send 4000 troops to Syria to support President Assad. From the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, that is, from elite connections. The Americans, in turn, seem to leave Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems and F16 fighters on the Syrian border in Jordan. In addition, 300 marines arrived in Jordan to participate in US-Jordanian maneuvers in late June. After the end of the maneuvers, they, however, will not leave there, joining the three thousand American military advisers already in the country.

Western policies toward the Islamists in the region look more and more strange: Western aid to, say, Assad is actually received by the same people with whom, formally speaking, the West does not stop fighting - the same al-Qaida. Here is a characteristic statement by the British prime minister: “I want to help the Syrian opposition succeed,” said David Cameron. “I recognize that there are elements in the ranks of the Syrian opposition that we really dislike, which are very dangerous, very extremist. But we don’t have dealing with them. We want to be expelled from Syria. They are linked to Al-Qaida. But among the Syrian opposition, there are elements who want Syria to be a free, democratic, pluralistic country that respects the rights of minorities, including Christian".

So, Cameron says, "we will not condemn the opposition for persecuting Christians, because there are elements among them who want the rights of minorities to be respected." Who prevents these elements from now stopping the pogroms of Christians is unknown. We will help the opposition, says Cameron, in which there are very dangerous elements, because we want them, dangerous elements, to be expelled from Syria. But after all, only Asad is trying to expel them and no one else? Nothing, we still help the opposition.

Of course, the Syrian opposition is not the point — it is a trifle, comparatively. But if Assad really does finish it, then it turns out that Shiite countries have won and are dominating in the region - first of all, Iran and Syria. And this will mean that all other candidates for leadership in the modern Islamic world (Turkey, Egypt, the Gulf monarchies) are left with noses. Bets on the eve of the junction are doubled and tripled. Truly, the bifurcation point: what happens in a week, and even more so in a month - nobody knows. Good luck to you.
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22 comments
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  1. Vladimirets
    Vladimirets 18 June 2013 15: 12
    +7
    “I admit that there are elements in the ranks of the Syrian opposition that we really do not like, that are very dangerous, very extremist. But we have nothing to do with them. We want to be expelled from Syria. They are connected with Al-Qaeda. "But there are elements among the Syrian opposition who want Syria to be a free, democratic, pluralistic country where the rights of minorities, including Christians, are respected."

    It would be interesting to know how Comrade Cameron is going to sort these elements in the future? The bad ones to the left, in Guantanomo, without the right of correspondence, and the good ones to the right, steer Syria and measure tuxedos to receive a peace prize?
    1. afire
      afire 18 June 2013 15: 23
      +4
      A little dumb from the misunderstanding of what is happening next and the logic of the West that does not fit into the logic.
      There is a great hope for the right actions (unpredictability of the situation on the face) of our military leadership.
      1. Vovka levka
        Vovka levka 18 June 2013 23: 12
        -1
        Quote: afire
        A little dumb from the misunderstanding of what is happening next and the logic of the West that does not fit into the logic.
        There is a great hope for the right actions (unpredictability of the situation on the face) of our military leadership.

        But you do not just have to say that someone cares about the fate of the Syrian people. She does not care about anyone - neither America, nor us. Everyone solves their problems at the expense of the country where the war is going on and where the bad guys poison the population with gas, and the good guys open the bodies of the dead and eat their hearts.
        1. afire
          afire 19 June 2013 15: 09
          0
          nonsense, personally, I will not have any fees from the fact that my country helps Syria, it is much more pleasant for me to realize that we are helping those who are faced with the same thing that we had in the Caucasus. Therefore, your illogical conclusion or fiction has nothing to do with what is happening. From the series, green is better than warm ...
  2. krez-74
    krez-74 18 June 2013 15: 14
    10
    The most important thing is that Russia strengthens its position and authority! While she is behaving on a solid four. That region will be troubled for a very long time, because there is too much easy money from oil, and it is very diluted with US interests, the presence of Israel (often an aggressor) in the region, and this is seasoned with fanatical obscurantism against the background of religions carefully financed by the West!
    So I repeat - the main thing is the interests of Russia!
  3. NORTH
    NORTH 18 June 2013 15: 16
    +3
    Somehow it is not easy for Syria. Hopefully we have a lot of options to contain this Caudle.
    1. Vovka levka
      Vovka levka 18 June 2013 23: 17
      -1
      Quote: NORD
      Somehow it is not easy for Syria. Hopefully we have a lot of options to contain this Caudle.

      But you do not just have to say that someone cares about the fate of the Syrian people. She does not care about anyone - neither America, nor us. Everyone solves their problems at the expense of the country where the war is going on and where the bad guys poison the population with gas, and the good guys open the bodies of the dead and eat their hearts.
      And if America is against Assad, we are automatically for it. All who are America’s enemies automatically become our friends. So it was for the Union, so it is now. That is all politics.
      But if America and its allies decide to deal with Bashar al-Assad, they will do it. And Russia with China or with someone else in the company will not be able to prevent this. And this is also a fact, whether we want it or not.
  4. creak
    creak 18 June 2013 15: 20
    +5
    Since when did Syria become a Shiite country, where more than half of the population profess Sunni Islam. In addition, the Alavites (they are not Shiites), as well as the Ismailis, etc., are largely represented in the country. Therefore, less pseudo-scientific terms such as bifurcation and more knowledge of realities.
    1. ziqzaq
      ziqzaq 18 June 2013 15: 34
      +8
      Quote: ranger
      Therefore, fewer pseudo-scientific terms such as bifurcation and

      Well, here you are very accurately written ...
      There are good and capacious definitions in the Russian language:
      bifurcation point - critical point (zone)
      trend - direction of something
      and so on....
      And then they picked up verbal garbage, it is time to treat the Russian language with respect ourselves, then others will respect ..........
  5. DEfindER
    DEfindER 18 June 2013 15: 26
    +1
    Actually, the Mursi statement did not surprise me at all, because what else can you expect from the Muslim Brotherhood organization, which is considered terrorist in the whole world, Egypt is already lost until there is a real popular revolution in which secular forces will defeat and not extremists .. Yes, and Turkey is slipping into Islamization, a people advocating secular unfortunately, the power is in the minority, which was shown by a million-strong rally in support of Erdogan, which was attended mainly by radical Muslims .. So we need to create our own line of defense, Iran - Syria - Russia.
  6. vitek1233
    vitek1233 18 June 2013 15: 42
    +1
    a terrorist fights a terrorist, then sends weapons, then a fight again, and the entire "civilized world" is ready to experience delight again
  7. Black
    Black 18 June 2013 15: 56
    +4
    Self-organization of Syria is possible (if it were not for a targeted policy of destabilization of the West), which means that the situation cannot be called a bifurcation point, but rather a systematic pushing of the country to the peak of uncertainty and collapse. The stationary state will depend on the values ​​of the control parameters
    - the presence of political will of Russia
    - not draining Syria by Iran
    - life and health of Ased
    - FIGHTING SPIRIT OF THE SYRIAN ARMY
  8. zvereok
    zvereok 18 June 2013 16: 30
    0
    My opinion is that the surrender of terrorists supported by the West will be very similar to the Hasovyurt Accords, only in the Roles of Beni will the Western world act.

    And here, information about a possible devaluation of the ruble slipped completely unnoticed. Coincidence? Putin at the Summit, and the ministers are doing what they have long wanted, but the owner did not allow? Or did Putin just not want to get dirty?
    1. CTEPX
      CTEPX 18 June 2013 19: 41
      +1
      Quote: zvereok
      surrender of terrorists

      They will not let them "surrender". And Syria will not be allowed to "crawl away."
      Quote: zvereok
      information on the possible devaluation of the ruble

      And the devaluation of the ruble is a natural response to the upcoming artificial decline in oil prices)).
      1. zvereok
        zvereok 19 June 2013 09: 32
        0
        Oops, our supplier of accessories, has already abandoned the fixed price and set prices in ye, "due to the instability in the foreign exchange market." Thank you, government!
  9. baltika-18
    baltika-18 18 June 2013 16: 47
    0
    Article plus. The author is right. It is impossible to predict the course of further events.
    But the fact that soon the denouement will be, I have no doubt. The whole question is what?
  10. galiullinrasim
    galiullinrasim 18 June 2013 17: 01
    -4
    Stalin's genius is that he did not interfere with the military like Hitler, that corporal and that monk decide pro-professors, the corporal decided how God and Stalin listened to the military and won and the people themselves know how
  11. creak
    creak 18 June 2013 17: 09
    +3
    What does Stalin have to do with it? The elderberry garden, and uncle in Kiev.
  12. Sandov
    Sandov 18 June 2013 18: 07
    +1
    No, the West is completely crazy, and maybe it always has been. They don’t put on those how Hitler was nurtured at one time, and now they are arming the bearded. Oh, they will punish their god for such deeds.
  13. homosum20
    homosum20 18 June 2013 18: 26
    +1
    Unfortunately, at bifurcation points, the situation is little predicted by people outside the geopolitical point at which the outcome of the bifurcation is determined. At the moment, this outcome is determined by almost a hundred people on a ball of the earth. the point of application of bifurcation, without a doubt, is the Middle East, most likely Syria. Based on this, we can say - who will win in Syria - will determine the priorities for the further development of the situation on planet Earth for the next 50 years.
    In this regard, even Vietnam was not so significant.
    In the event of our weakness, a further chain of aggression is being seen beyond Syria. Syria - Iran - Russia - China.
  14. pinecone
    pinecone 18 June 2013 19: 03
    0
    Quote: zvereok


    And here, information about a possible devaluation of the ruble slipped completely unnoticed. Coincidence? Putin at the Summit, and the ministers are doing what they have long wanted, but the owner did not allow? Or did Putin just not want to get dirty?


    The gradual devaluation of the ruble takes place regardless of the actions of the ministers and the wishes of the leadership due to a decrease in export revenues while increasing import costs and massive export of foreign currency outside the Russian Federation. Of particular note is the steadily increasing pressure on the ruble exchange rate from the side of the horde of aliens from the east. In the complete absence of currency control, this situation will only worsen.
    1. zvereok
      zvereok 18 June 2013 20: 20
      +2
      Most of all I was surprised that the Ministry of Economic Development decided to buy dollars for reserves ... Et. what are these reserves? And why not in the national currency? Generally a strange situation.
      1. zvereok
        zvereok 19 June 2013 05: 27
        0
        Here are some of the right thoughts:
        "
        The excited public hastened to reassure the First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Igor Shuvalov - they say his colleague from the Ministry of Finance was misunderstood. It is noteworthy that some experts of the version about the erroneous interpretation of the minister's words tend to believe. Siluanov spoke of devaluation as an inevitable consequence of the forthcoming actions of the Ministry of Finance (direct purchase of currency in the market), and not of the goal, they believe. As a result, the national currency will weaken on the 1-2 ruble, as the minister predicted. And this even has some advantages. For example, the situation with liquidity in the banking sector will improve, as the Central Bank will have more funds left. And, of course, state budget revenues will grow at least nominally.

        Otherwise, the benefits are not so obvious. The support of the national producer, which is usually mentioned in the first instance in the case of devaluation, today rests on the lack of free capacities and qualified personnel. This makes it impossible to significantly increase the production of goods and services. As a result, instead of replacing imports, the national economy will receive a reduction in consumer demand. And the enterprises themselves often purchase equipment abroad. As for exports, if you do not take into account the raw materials industries, which are already doing well, the vast majority of Russian enterprises cannot yet compete on foreign markets even with a weak ruble.

        However, the capital ruble is unlikely to weaken completely. Deep devaluation is a powerful blow to the population, which the authorities usually take in case of emergency. The last time in Russia the national currency fell by 30% in the winter of 2009, at the very height of the global crisis, when oil prices fell to their lowest levels.
        "

        And how strange it is to join the WTO and fight devaluation for domestic producers, with the words "cheaper domestic goods will oust imported goods", but in fact - domestic goods simply rise in price and the only ones who live well are the notorious raw materials appendages of the West.

        And a good phrase in the subject:

        Gasoline rises in price because oil rises in price ...

        Over time:

        Gasoline is getting more expensive because oil is getting cheaper.

        By the way, there was information that officials last fall did not forget to raise their salaries three times.
  15. bunta
    bunta 18 June 2013 19: 41
    +1
    A little exaggerated at the expense of uncertainty. There can be no absolute uncertainty in principle.
    At this point, there may be several attractors - roughly speaking, the scenarios. Or several solutions of one equation (as you like wink ) So the variants of the system’s behavior are always predictable with a certain degree of probability, but the occurrence of which of them is really a great mystery.
  16. Pancho
    Pancho 18 June 2013 20: 15
    0
    I'm afraid the point is that "our" Assad will be surrendered. Although now they are throwing minuses and all the same.
  17. fisherman
    fisherman 18 June 2013 21: 41
    0
    bifurcation point is usually understood as a trend fracture, but this is too exaggerated definition, but very simple ...

    and sometimes details are important to a person, sometimes so much that it is precisely the nuances that determine the "success-failure" ...

    in addition, the bifurcation point is sometimes understood not as "stratification into several difficultly predictable variants of the course of events" itself, but the so-called acceleration of the previous trend, which follows after this very point of bifurcation (the period of chaotic search for solutions and throwing)

    our "Western friends" felt that the military campaign (covered by political blah-blah about human rights) was inclined to resolve in favor of those options that they did not need at all, and they were trying (at least) to drag out this "period of chaotic search for solutions and throwing up" - the period of greatest uncertainty, as a maximum - to reverse it again ...

    I am not a prophet, but I hope that they break off ...
  18. ocvbc
    ocvbc 19 June 2013 12: 01
    0
    The people in the network leaked the entire database about us all! Now you can watch any information about everyone who interests you! Use until you close! Here's the link - clck.ru/8hBBA