Military Review

Election of the President of Iran: "Arab Spring" or regrouping in the elite?

14
Election of the President of Iran: "Arab Spring" or regrouping in the elite?The Iranian Constitutional Guardians Council of May 21, as expected, submitted the country's MIA a final list of candidates for the presidential elections scheduled for June 14. The final list includes only 8 candidates from nearly 700 registered. This final composition of the presidential race largely reflects both the current domestic political struggle in Iran and the geopolitical context, against which the 11 presidential election will take place.


First of all, the Guardian Council did not allow a number of key figures to participate in the elections. This is the heavyweight of the reformist camp, ex-president Hashemi Rafsanjani. Also excluded from the struggle for the presidency of Esfandiyar Rafim Mashai - a close associate of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a candidate from a power group that has rallied around the incumbent head of state. In the absence of these figures, elections become practically unalternative in terms of the interests of the conservative camp, which is centered around the country's religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Reformists are now relatively pale. These include the former Vice-President Mohammed Reza Aref, the former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Hassan Rouhani and the former Minister of Telecommunications Mohammed Garazi. On the other hand, a group of conservatives loyal to Khamenei is distinguished, which includes the acting head of the National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, Tehran mayor Mohammad Bagher Kalibaf, the chief foreign policy adviser to the great Ayatollah, Ali Akbar Velayati, and the former parliament speaker Golam-Ali Haddad-Adel.

In general, the registration of candidates again demonstrated the nature of the current domestic political struggle in Iran - it develops primarily within the Islamic clergy, conditionally divided into a number of groups, among which are the conservative wing, the moderate sector, and reformists. The course of the campaign during the period until the verification of candidates is completed by the Guardian Council also reflects this trend. The Council was addressed by parliamentarians and theologians demanding that the incumbent president be held accountable for the direct support of his nominee Mashai.

Another trend was the demand already against the reformists, which provided for the refusal to register Rafsanjani as a candidate for the presidency of the country. A version was also circulated in the media that he would be "failed" because of his old age. As a result, the final list of eight lines indicates that the conservatives successfully control the state apparatus, cutting off potentially problematic candidates. At the same time, such a drastic sweep of the list of candidates may indicate weakness: the conservative group is not quite ready for direct confrontation with opponents and prefers simply to prevent their nomination.

However, the factors influencing the outcome of elections in Iran are not limited to the internal Iranian dimension. The regional processes, the ongoing confrontation with the West and Israel over Iran’s nuclear program, the difficult confrontation around the civil war in Syria cast a shadow over the elections. In the latter case, regional centers of power - Turkey and Saudi Arabia - are competing with Tehran. Against this background, the situation around the presidential elections in Iran acquires a slightly different sound. It is noteworthy that Said Jalili, who stands out among conservative candidates, not only holds an influential post of secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security, but is also the main Iranian negotiator on a nuclear program. The specified field clearing from potentially dangerous representatives of the opposition can be considered in a new way.

At present, the course of the West with regard to Iran is rather in the "pause" mode. This is due both to expectations regarding the election results and to the electoral process itself. The United States, the European Union and Israel are not losing hope for the peaceful softening of the existing regime in Iran. Undoubtedly, the option of returning to power of reformists would be more preferable for the USA and the EU, in the 1990s. demonstrated greater willingness to compromise and cooperation. On the other hand, most likely, this option will not affect the implementation of Iran’s nuclear program, on which there is a consensus in the country.

It seems that it was not by chance that, in the period preceding the elections, certain circles in the United States heard proposals to begin a direct dialogue with Tehran, which could be a signal to the ruling elite of Iran. The second interesting option for the West is related to the possibility of repeating the 2009 election scenario and implies shifts in Iran’s position in the external arena as a result of mass unrest inside the country.

Against this background, the hard line of the conservative camp, aimed at preventing the most weighty oppositionists from electing, takes on a different meaning. The point is to deprive certain circles of the chance to organize mass demonstrations on the basis of the elections. In this regard, reformists, who are closely connected with the politically active youth of large urban centers, are especially dangerous for the Iranian elite. At the same time, the development of a socio-political crisis in Iran cannot be ruled out. Here we must take into account that even in the absence of specific candidates-favorites from the opposition, the deteriorating economic situation in the country can be a decisive factor.

In this regard, two negative trends overlap in Iran. The first is associated with a downward trend in world energy prices, the second with the effects of sanctions imposed by the West on Iranian energy exports. Putting on the policy of liberalization and the abolition of subsidizing the prices of some important goods conducted by the Ahmadinejad administration, these factors led to an increase in social tension in Iran in 2011-2012. The protests even encompassed the bazaar — the middle and petty trading bourgeoisie, which was still one of the social pillars of the regime. The economic situation also played a role in the fall of the current president’s rating. It cannot be ruled out that she will play her own role in the upcoming presidential election. Be that as it may, it will soon become clear what fate awaits Iran: either its own version of the "Arab Spring", or a change in the existing balance of forces within the power elite.
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  1. individual
    individual 25 May 2013 08: 02 New
    +2
    The alignment of forces in the election race of Iran is due to the unchanged policy of any candidate to maintain the general course of the country's religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
    This means that the tasks of domestic policy will be determined by the creation and strengthening of the nuclear priority of development and not necessarily as weapons.
    In foreign policy, the priority of the Shiite interpretation of Islam and the support of the Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad remain. Opposition to the geopolitical radical aspirations of the Saudis on the one hand and Turkish Islamic influence in the region of Iran’s interests.
  2. BDRM 667
    BDRM 667 25 May 2013 09: 38 New
    +1
    God forbid, it will also blaze in Iran! It’s better, whatever stability is ...
    1. xetai9977
      xetai9977 25 May 2013 10: 32 New
      +6
      Burning in Iran, the consequences will be completely unpredictable. In relation to us, that's for sure. Behind the apparent stability in Iran, underwater currents are invisible, and they are not weak either. Inflation, unemployment, mullah interference in everything and everything, from the economy to sports, difficult interethnic relations, the arrogance of the elite. The people grumble. I myself was recently there and I know this firsthand.
      1. OTAKE
        OTAKE 25 May 2013 10: 39 New
        +2
        Quote: xetai9977
        Burning in Iran, the consequences will be completely unpredictable. In relation to us, that's for sure. Behind the apparent stability in Iran, underwater currents are invisible, and they are not weak either. Inflation, unemployment, mullah interference in everything and everything, from the economy to sports, difficult interethnic relations, the arrogance of the elite. The people grumble. I myself was recently there and I know this firsthand.

        Iran, of course, is not as frostbitten as North Korea, for example, but it’s much more powerful and developed, and it seems to Europeans that Iran is the closest one among the “axis of evil” countries.)
        1. Yarbay
          Yarbay 25 May 2013 20: 48 New
          +2
          Quote: OTAKE
          Iran, of course, is not as frostbitten as North Korea, for example, but it’s much more powerful and developed, and it seems to Europeans that Iran is the closest one among the “axis of evil” countries.)

          That's right !!
          Many Israelis, our users too underestimate the progress in Iran and feed on information 20 years ago!
      2. Day 11
        Day 11 25 May 2013 12: 38 New
        +1
        Rauf, my opinion is: Whoever Ayatollah points to will become the “main one.” Am I wrong? As far as I know (maybe I'm wrong) Iranians are very religious
        1. xetai9977
          xetai9977 25 May 2013 15: 19 New
          +4
          Greetings again, Denis! (I already greeted you in the old pro Korea) Of course, the main player there is Ayatollah Khamenei. And about religiosity ... Naturally, in the opinion of immigrants from the USSR they are religious. But they cannot be compared with Pakistanis and Afghans. Do not forget, before the 1979 revolution, Iran was a very pro-Western state. Urban residents did not differ in appearance from Europeans. Yes, and now Iranians abroad, including women, dress very democratically. I personally know several drinking Iranians. (I’m non-drinker myself).
        2. Yarbay
          Yarbay 25 May 2013 20: 52 New
          +1
          Quote: Den 11
          Rauf, my opinion is: Whoever Ayatollah points to will become the “main one.” Am I wrong? As far as I know (maybe I'm wrong) Iranians are very religious

          Dear Denis!
          * Democracy * will be respected, people will choose who they want and it will be honest!
          But the question in another candidate was approved by Ayatollah Khameniyi personally and only he decides who can run for election!
          Here’s the answer: they won’t allow a hardened person! There is no difference who they choose, everyone will do what Iran needs and there are no reformers!
  3. dc120mm
    dc120mm 25 May 2013 11: 02 New
    +2
    I’m very carefully observing the choice in Iran. It will be interesting what will happen.
  4. Belogor
    Belogor 25 May 2013 11: 55 New
    +2
    what fate awaits Iran: either its own version of the "Arab spring", or changes in the existing balance of power within the power elite.
    In Iran, "spring" was in 1979 when the shah was thrown off, even if some do not have illusions on this score. Iran is much more democratic than the Arabian monarchies, which have neither elections nor parliament. Ahmadinejad will simply be replaced by a more balanced politician, but the country's course will remain the same
    1. Hudo
      Hudo 25 May 2013 12: 28 New
      0
      Quote: Belogor
      Ahmadinejad will simply be replaced by a more balanced politician, but the country's course will remain the same

      Well, if so. It’s bad if the mattresses try to arrange a color “revolution”.
    2. Day 11
      Day 11 25 May 2013 12: 51 New
      0
      For example, I don’t consider Ahmadinejad an unbalanced politician. On the contrary, I consider him a very smart and competent person. For example, as he thoroughly put everything on the shelves for the UN General Assembly on September 22, 2011. Who cares is on Youtube.com
      1. Yarbay
        Yarbay 25 May 2013 12: 53 New
        +3
        Quote: Den 11
        For example, I do not consider Ahmadinejad an unbalanced politician. On the contrary, I consider him a very smart and competent person.


        He really is not a simple person, but plays the role of a simpleton well when he needs to !!
        1. Day 11
          Day 11 25 May 2013 14: 12 New
          +2
          He indicated that Israel is the enemy of the entire Arab world (and not only). Is this not true?
          1. Day 11
            Day 11 25 May 2013 14: 51 New
            +2
            Maybe for some it will turn out to be a shock, but I’ll say that there are a lot of Jews living in Iran and they fully support Ahmadinejad’s policies! The guys from Israel who are present on this site will confirm. Do I lie to the people who were there? (For the Israelis ). This question is not religion, it’s a question of politics (who will be the "main" in the Middle East)
            1. xetai9977
              xetai9977 25 May 2013 15: 22 New
              +4
              In my opinion, any Jew, wherever he is, will always support Israel.
              1. Day 11
                Day 11 25 May 2013 18: 19 New
                +2
                Not a fact! They also have the so-called "Hasidim", they also have different people, and among them there are those who are against Israel as a state entity
                1. xetai9977
                  xetai9977 25 May 2013 18: 22 New
                  +3
                  Maybe there is, but honestly I don’t know such
            2. Rioter
              Rioter 25 May 2013 18: 11 New
              +1
              Quote: Den 11
              Iran has a lot of Jews, and they fully support Ahmadinejad’s policies
              - not so much. Either those who have something to lose in Iran (business and social status), or religious fuckers from Neturei map and a minuscule of those passive low-energy people who have not yet hit the road to Europe, Canada or Israel.


              Quote: Den 11
              Here the question is not religion, here is the question of politics (who will be the "main" in the Middle East)
              - Israel cannot be the main one due to the boycott of neighbors. Israel cares only about their nuclear program. everything else is the fears and ambitions of the Arabians. They have a long account for Iran. Israel would not have led it with an ear if the Iranians had not tore Israel through Hezbollah continuously and did not threaten to wipe Israel off the face of the earth with atomic whip. At one time, Israel had relations with Iran much warmer than with America. And sooner or later, under a different regime, they will normalize again.
              1. xetai9977
                xetai9977 25 May 2013 18: 17 New
                +2
                In 1980-1988, when Iran and Iraq fought, the United States delivered weapons to Iran through Israel.
            3. Yarbay
              Yarbay 25 May 2013 18: 34 New
              +2
              Quote: Den 11
              Maybe for someone this will turn out to be a shock, but I will say that a lot of Jews live in Iran, and they fully support Ahmadinejad’s policy



              live, but I would not say that a lot!
              And they would try not to support the President!
              There will be another president tomorrow, they will support him!
          2. Yarbay
            Yarbay 25 May 2013 18: 28 New
            +3
            Quote: Den 11
            He indicated that Israel is the enemy of the entire Arab world (and not only). Is this not true?

            The fact is that Israel declared the enemy of Iran Ayatollah Khomeini and immediately after the Islamic Revolution and announced * Quds Day * in 1979 !!
            Khomeini’s speech on this subject is on the internet!
      2. Belogor
        Belogor 25 May 2013 13: 45 New
        0
        Esfandiyar Rafim Mashai, a close associate of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a candidate from the power group, rallied around the current head of state, was also excluded from the struggle for the presidency.
        Nevertheless, the highest authorities decided that way, to cut off the people of Ahmadinejad from the elections. So he became a figure that does not suit them.
  5. knn54
    knn54 25 May 2013 14: 39 New
    0
    On February 7, as a result of a survey conducted amid a sharp deterioration in the economic situation of the population, 63 percent of Iranians still support leadership policies to continue nuclear research. 47 percent of respondents directly accused the United States of worsening its situation. There is a consolidation of Iranian society around Rahbar (Fakih).
    The response to attempts to weaken the Islamic Republic of Iran, to the split and destabilization of Iranian society, is not long in coming.
    There are no marginalized Musavi and Karrubi, reformer Rafsanjani.
    Washington’s hopes for a more compliant leadership, capable of quickly normalizing relations with the United States and Europe, are not destined to come true.
    1. Yarbay
      Yarbay 25 May 2013 18: 51 New
      +2
      Quote: knn54
      There are no marginalized Musavi and Karrubi, reformer Rafsanjani.

      this is not so! the people you named are not marginalized, and Rafsanjani is not a reformer!
      The first two were headed by Rafsanjani!
      There is a completely different policy!
      1. xetai9977
        xetai9977 25 May 2013 18: 58 New
        +3
        I support. There "reformer", "conservative" conditional concepts